Hormuz, NATO, and the Asian Energy Crisis: Shannon Joseph on Why the World Needs Canadian LNG

In this episode of Power Struggle, Stewart Muir welcomes back Shannon Joseph, President of Energy for a Secure Future, fresh off a year of international missions meeting with ambassadors and diplomats from Taiwan, South Korea, India, and the Philippines, and leading trade delegations to Japan alongside First Nations and industry leaders. Joseph shares what she's learned straight from the world's energy customers—including how the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz reshaped the conversation around natural gas security across Asia. 

They discuss:

• The view from the world's energy-importing nations, and why countries like the Philippines are "150%" behind Canadian LNG
• How Hormuz disrupted 20% of the world's natural gas supply and what that meant for global energy security
• Why renewables can't do it alone in geographies like Japan and Vietnam, and what "energy addition" really means
• The findings of ESF's new report, "When Our Nation Builds," on the real-world impact of LNG Canada and Coastal GasLink
• What the data shows would have happened if the Coastal GasLink pipeline had been cancelled—and what actually happened instead
• A $19,000–$26,000 annual income boost, 215 more Indigenous language speakers, and other benefits flowing to 20 First Nations and 20 municipalities along the corridor
• Why the upstream Montney Basin matters as much as the export terminals themselves
• The shifting politics of public trust, community benefits, and Indigenous leadership in Canada's energy debate

This is a conversation about diplomacy, data, and what it actually takes to build public understanding of Canada's role as a global energy supplier. As global demand keeps climbing and geopolitical shocks keep multiplying, the case for Canadian LNG isn't theoretical anymore—it's showing up in the numbers.

#EnergyForASecureFuture #LNG #CanadaEnergy #WhenOurNationBuilds #IndigenousPartnership #NaturalGas #PowerStruggle #BCEnergy #ClimateAndEnergy #EnergySecurity

The energy conversation is polarizing. But the reality is multidimensional. Get the full story with host Stewart Muir.

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Transcript

Welcome And What’s At Stake

SPEAKER_00 0:13

Welcome back to Power Struggle. I'm Stuart Muir. Today we're catching up with Shannon Joseph, fresh off some international missions with energy for a secure future, to talk about what she's learned straight from diplomats around the world, including how the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping the conversation around natural gas. From there, we're digging into LNG and Canada's diversification agenda, the new politics of community benefits, straight out of a new report from ESF. And we'll look ahead at why public trust and understanding is so crucial for LNG. Let's get into it. Shannon, it's so great to have you back at PowerStruggle.

SPEAKER_01 0:54

I'm excited to be here.

SPEAKER_00 0:56

It's been over a year since you were first here. You've been so busy. What have you been up to?

What Asian Partners Want From Canada

SPEAKER_01 1:02

Well, I think since we were last together, Energy for a Secure Future has done a lot of work on engaging the international community. So, you know, there's a whole conversation in Canada about does the world actually need natural gas? Is everybody phasing it out? And so we spent a lot of time. I did interviews with the um representative of Taiwan, their ambassador to Canada, uh the ambassador of South Korea, the ambassador, the High Commissioner of India, um, the ambassador of the Philippines. Um, we went to Japan on a trade mission with three First Nations leaders and two industry leaders um talking to them about what they want from Canada. So it's been a busy year of listening to customers.

SPEAKER_00 1:48

And what have you heard? What do they want from Canada?

SPEAKER_01 1:51

So uh what they want, what they wanted from Canada for a long time uh has been our energy, has been our LNG. And they've been willing to come on camera and talk about it. The Philippines ambassador, I said to him, does the Philippines want Canada's LNG? And he said, 150%. So uh there's a there's this massive need. And why? Because most of these countries are not energy self-sufficient, they're less than 50% self-sufficient. And so they gotta import their energy from somewhere. And a lot of them have been importing from Russia, and the conflict in the Ukraine got all of them thinking we need uh another source of energy. And then, you know, recently with a conflict in the Middle East, which impacted primarily Asia, they thought, wow, there's another geopolitical choke impacting our energy. And whereas after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, they were like, How soon can you get us your LNG? We want to work with you. We don't want just your gas, we want your oil, we want nuclear, we want whatever you can get us. Um, now it's even more dire. And I think interestingly, um, you know, the past three years, Canada's been involved in the G7. We hosted that, we were the chair of the G7, but it's this G7, the leader statement said, we look forward to not being overly dependent on geopolitically bottlenecked resources for energy. And we look forward to Canada significantly increasing its contributions of energy globally.

SPEAKER_00 3:26

And I actually did call out Canada or mention Canada by name.

SPEAKER_01 3:29

That's right.

SPEAKER_00 3:30

That meant something.

SPEAKER_01 3:31

That meant a lot because I think many of us were wanting Canada to get called out by name, and maybe it seemed unreasonable. It's like, no, not unreasonable. Everybody wants this from us.

SPEAKER_00 3:40

What is it? We in the eyes of the world, what do we have?

SPEAKER_01 3:44

In the eyes of the world, we have some of the largest energy resources uh on the planet. You know, today Canada produces five million barrels a day of oil. Um, Russia, as a counterpoint, produces 10 million barrels a day, but we could produce 10 million barrels a day. We have the capacity. And um, you know, there's been a lot of announcements about new pipelines and things like that in Canada. When you look at the forecasts of production to 2030, we could get up to 7 million barrels a day. If we had more pipeline capacity, we could do more. That's on oil. On gas, we have 400 trillion cubic feet of gas. And maybe about 81 uh trillion is accessible. That's still a lot of gas. And if you're Vietnam, if you're the Philippines and you're trying to build a manufacturing economy, you're trying to ensure everybody in your country can keep the lights on, can have air conditioning when it's hot, you need uh reliable fuel for electricity. And they look at Canada and they think, can you

Hormuz Shock And Gas Storage Reality

SPEAKER_01 4:48

help us? Um, and I I guess as a final point, Hormuz uh disrupted 20% of the world's uh natural gas. And that natural gas is generally used for electricity production uh in Asia. They didn't have a lot of storage. So some countries had two weeks of gas storage. The hormu the Hormuz conflict lasted four months, and it's not quite over. We're only about 50% uh back to normal in that region. So the whole world was drawing down its reserves to help prevent a humanitarian crisis. We could, as a country, stave that off completely if we built the infrastructure and advanced the projects to really be a long-term partner.

SPEAKER_00 5:30

Now there's probably someone uh listening to you and thinking, well, uh this would be a great moment to force those countries to accelerate their adoption of renewables to replace gas. This crisis will cause them to build out those technologies and that infrastructure. What would you say to that

Why Renewables Cannot Scale Everywhere

SPEAKER_00 5:47

question?

SPEAKER_01 5:47

That that uh you know, on the renewables piece, I think ever there there's a role for every kind of energy uh everywhere. Um, but if you're Japan, um most of your land is mountains. You can't really do large-scale wind and large-scale solar on land. If you want to do offshore wind, um, Japan is special. And you know, uh Taiwan shares this in common with them. As soon as you leave the beach, it is extremely deep water. So you need floating wind turbines, like you need these technologies that don't really exist yet. Um, for Vietnam and some of the more southern Asian countries, they don't have very good wind resources. The closer you get to the equator, the less good the energy resources are. And all of those countries have monsoon seasons and rainy seasons. And if you're using wind, if you're using solar, these um energy sources don't last all the time. You don't know when you're gonna get them. You need batteries to kind of manage, or gas plants that are standing by idling, um, both of which, especially the idling gas plant, is expensive, but the battery can't last three months of monsoon season. And so that's why something that could work well in Canada, um, maybe, you know, wind in in Segnay or not Segnay in Gas Bay in Quebec work great. They have big hydro dams to act as batteries, works much better than some of the options available in Asia. And so we have to just be cognizant. Not everything can work everywhere. And countries have done a lot of thinking about how do we have the energy we need with the least environmental impact.

SPEAKER_00 7:30

What makes the international delegations that you've led important in

First Nations Meet The Global Customer

SPEAKER_00 7:35

this?

SPEAKER_01 7:35

I think there are two things. Um, a big part of the work has been about connecting First Nations who are involved in energy projects, major projects with international customers. And that's important because First Nations have a major role in all of the LNG projects in Canada today. And our owners, our equity uh option holders, uh, but it's their corporate proponents or corporate partners who get to go out and you know make deals, et cetera. Um, and it's important, I think, for leaders involved in this space to meet the customer, to understand their needs. You know, and in if you're India and you have 200 million people without electricity, uh, a First Nation that has really expensive energy in Canada and worries about energy security can understand that in a level maybe the average Canadian wouldn't. And they can come speak to their own peoples about the leaders they met in Vietnam or uh the leaders they met in Japan and say, this is why they need this. And this is how our nation not only can end poverty for ourselves, but can help these other countries. And I think it is, it can be really transformative for the way many of these nations view this, these projects. It's a kind of an aspirational opportunity to transform the role of their nation in the world. Um, so I think it's important for that reason. And certainly, you know, the leaders who've participated with us have been happy about that. The other reason it's important is because Canada can get a little insular about the energy conversation. And we can say, well, we're trying to be ambitious with climate, or we're trying to be ambitious with renewables, or we're trying to be ambitious with something else, and so is everybody else. And everybody else is going to do it the way we are. And having the customer say, actually, these are the options we have, and actually, this is what we need. And actually, this is how we can feel secure, um, kind of cuts through whatever speculation we have about what the world needs and uh helps us to act out of a place of of reality.

SPEAKER_00 9:41

We seem to have policies in Canada that are premised on this product, the gas, going to places that will use it in an irresponsible, not innovative way. Is that what you found that they are happy to take that that molecule and they'll just they'll just use it without thinking about the the efficiencies?

SPEAKER_01 10:03

No, I mean they care very much about the efficiencies because in a lot of cases, these are countries that are territorially smaller than Canada, but have way more people in that small area. So they care a lot about air quality, they care a lot about efficiency, space efficiency. Um, on the trade mission we did in February of 2025, we visited an LNG intake facility that was a power plant for Tokyo. I think Tokyo has 20 million people, so half the population of Canada in one city. This is their power plant. And uh the facility kind of gave us a lay of the land of all of their power plants regionally and said, look, these are the ones that we hope, these are coal power plants we hope to blend with hydrogen to reduce emissions. These are new facilities that if we don't get gas, uh we'll have, we'll we might have to keep burning coal or we're not sure what we're gonna do. So they were showing us the thinking they were doing to reduce the emissions intensity of infrastructure they had now and the way that gas was gonna avoid them having to build new coal power. Um, but at the end of the day, it wasn't an option not to have the energy. And because they're energy importing country, Japan imports, you know, 80% of what it uses, they're they're looking for partnerships and they're gonna provide their 120 million people with energy.

SPEAKER_00 11:23

And they're also signing climate treaties, making undertakings. So it's not like they're not thinking about the same issues Canada is.

SPEAKER_01 11:31

Absolutely. Japan has net zero commitments, South Korea has net zero commitments. Um, even the Philippines, although they're on a different track as a developing country, but certainly, you know, the wealthier countries in Asia have the exact same commitments as us, but they don't have the same energy as us. They don't have, you know, the second largest uranium deposit in the world. And so they have to operate both with their environmental ambition, but also their responsibility to their populations to keep the lights on, to keep the hospitals going, etc. And that means finding ways to strike a balance, and the balance depends on their partners.

Low Emissions LNG Meets Price Pressure

SPEAKER_01 12:09

And I guess a final point I would make, and and this speaks to a report we just put out called When Our Nation Builds, Canada's LNG facilities are 60% less emitting than the average uh facility in the world, and I think 30% better than some of the best facilities. And so we are offering some, and that has value for Asia. They're like, oh, you can give us what we want and it's low emitting. Tell us more. And so I think that um for Canadians concerned about the environmental story, we actually have resources that can be produced very efficiently from an environmental standpoint that gives customers in the world an option that is lower emitting and that they want to use because they need to use something.

SPEAKER_00 12:58

Now, I was sitting beside the high commissioner of India at a conference of India to Canada, and he made one thing really clear. He said, Yeah, you're doing a great job with how you produce here, but I have to tell you, we won't pay a penny more than for someone else's gas because that's the India outlook on it. Um do you do you find that is the attitude everywhere? Is it that tight?

SPEAKER_01 13:23

That is the attitude everywhere. And um, and that's been the experience of companies. And so that's something else Canadians need to know. If we make our production more expensive because we put all you know high carbon taxes on them or put emissions caps on them, or just puts put imposed costs that other jurisdictions don't have, um, nobody's gonna pay for that. We're gonna pay for that.

SPEAKER_00 13:49

Yeah. So there's there's this assumption, though, that if Canada has invested in doing these things arguably better than others, that we'll get a benefit that is an add-on top. But really, it's more like it's table stakes just to be in the game.

SPEAKER_01 14:04

I think it's table stakes, although lots of people are in the game who aren't as environmentally efficient as us. It's it's table stakes in Canada. And, you know, these camp the companies that have made these investments, they save money by being environmentally efficient too. And so they're driving efficiencies both in kind of operations, but also in the environmental performance. And that's just doing good business and being a good kind of corporate citizen.

SPEAKER_00 14:29

Now, I've been looking at your report, a lot of people are talking about it, and I want to come to that. But I first of all actually want to just cap off like your travels, your journey. And you look back to when you started energy for a secure future. What have you learned along the way? Things that you maybe wish you knew at the beginning, or things that are just enriching the way you are going through this?

Lessons From A Fast Changing World

SPEAKER_01 14:52

Well, what I've learned along the way is how fast things can change. Um, when we started, it was right after Russia invaded Ukraine. It was right after the global energy price spikes that got everybody thinking and talking about the energy trilemma. So security, affordability environment. Um, and then President Trump was elected in the United States and you know started, you know, talking tough to Canada. And suddenly Canada, which was a country that had passed many policies to make it hard to build things, was ready to build anything, and uh has a major projects office and has LNG projects on that list and now announced oil pipelines, like it's a new country in one year. And so uh that's been an important lesson. And um what I think should be a lesson for Canadians, or something Canadians keep in mind, and this is something I heard in a more recent trip to Asia, is that um everybody in Asia remembers when Canada was not very enthusiastic about getting its resources to market. Uh, everyone in Canada remembers when Prime Minister Kearney uh led an international finance organization that was blocking financing to oil and gas-related projects. And they said, we're so happy you changed your mind, but we want to make sure you continue to act in ways that give us confidence that we can rely on you for the next 20 years. And I feel like we've come to a point where people can rely us, rely on us for the next 20 years. I'm really happy when I see the prime minister and the premier of BC and First Nations leaders and industry all standing together saying, we're gonna do this. I think it's fantastic. Um, but we need to continue to be consistent. So my big lesson is things can change fast, but the proof is then in the consistency.

Canadian Public Support And Pocketbook Politics

SPEAKER_00 16:52

Is the mind of the Canadian voter something that can change fast? Or do you think it has kind of developed slowly? Because there's no way those recent announcements would have been made if those political actors weren't very confident that the public was on side with that, right? So do you see the evolution of how Canadians are thinking about this as being on a trajectory? It's increasing, it's it's now at a point of sta staying stable. What do you think is going on?

SPEAKER_01 17:19

So for over a year, it's been very much we have to build, we have to diversify every province in the country. When you look at polling supports building pipelines and power plants and anything else uh that we need. And I don't know how long that's gonna last, but what I think is true is that um people are paying more for groceries, people a lot more, people are paying attention to the economy, um, and people have a sense of what it takes to create wealth. And maybe those people before felt really confident and weren't pushing for a certain outcome or um weren't paying attention as closely. Now that these pocketbook issues are so prominent, um, I think everybody's paying attention. People who weren't paying attention are paying attention. And the majority of people want to see a better balance. And interestingly, when you look at polling based on voting intention, so liberal voters, uh conservative voters, they are both, you know, well into 70% or more support for doing this. And that kind of kind of multi-party support is really great to see because polarization seems to be like the flavor of the moment in the 2020s. Uh, so seeing that kind of unity cross-party nationally, um, I think is something that was enough for politicians to have, as you say, confidence to move

NATO Pressure And Dual Use Infrastructure

SPEAKER_01 18:52

forward.

SPEAKER_00 18:52

And it's even more serious in recent days, NATO is meeting, they're confronting the fact that the US is literally pulling out, not talking about, not threatening to, but they're actually pulling back resources from Western Europe. And that completely changes things, not just for Europeans, but for Canada as part of NATO. And it it's almost like a 1942 moment where suddenly the threat wasn't it's gone from theoretical to very real. And if we don't solve this ourselves, nobody else is going to.

SPEAKER_01 19:24

Yeah. Uh, you know, it's interesting. On the one hand, I think the United States has a fair point when it says everyone should be contributing proportionately as much as we are. And we haven't been. And uh the fact that we're now in a moment where everyone feels they need to, uh, I think is a good thing. And uh I think, you know, that defense thinking combined with some of these energy ambitions we have, uh, I think can lead to some really interesting outcomes for Canada. You know, we're gonna we're doing all this dual-use spending related to NATO, um, icebreakers. Can these icebreakers create um new trade routes for us, uh new port options for us, that help us to be a more reliable partner, that help our resources to add security to the international community. I think that's a real contribution we can make. And now that everyone's mind has been focused around the future of NATO and what each country will contribute, um, I think it could be very exciting for Canada.

SPEAKER_00 20:32

Let's

Inside When Our Nation Builds

SPEAKER_00 20:33

get into your report. Okay. Tell me about it.

SPEAKER_01 20:36

So this report is um called uh When Our Nation Builds. I would say it's a labor of love or it's a labor of love and hate. Uh it was it's a very um, we wanted to do something comprehensive that looked at what were the actual benefits of Canada pursuing LNG Canada phase one. So our first ever large LNG facility.

SPEAKER_00 21:02

And it's now exactly one year as we sit here since it started shipping. So it's a good increment to look at.

SPEAKER_01 21:09

So what what were the benefits of that project of the coastal gas link pipeline, which supplies it? And not just at the national level, like you know, we can all think about GDP numbers or things like that, but what did it mean for the 180,000 people who live between the source of energy in the Motney Basin and Kidamat, where the energy is exporting? Because um this is really important. Uh, a lot of people um may recall blockades across the country to cancel the coastal gas link pipeline. People may recall a group of 20 masked bandits coming and attacking the construction site of coastal gas link with axes. And it's like, what if those people had gotten their way? What would have been the consequence, not just for Canada, but For those communities. And so the report has four elements. Um, one is kind of a look at what our competitive advantages as an LNG exporter and why we matter, and you know, the prominent elements of our resource size, the faster shipping distance, 10 days versus 40 days. Um, so that's one element. The biggest part of the report uh is based around how did LNG Canada and Coastal Gas Link respond to the BC five conditions, uh, which were jobs and trading, fair return for resources, um partnership with First Nations, environmental performance, and community benefits. How did these projects deliver on those things in BC? Um, the third piece, which I'm very excited about, looks at three scenarios. One is what if we never built these projects? What if the protesters had gotten their way and these things got canceled? What would that have meant for social indicators in these communities? So we did an analysis and iTotem did the research for us, but they did an analysis of um, you know, social and economic indicators based on census data if we build just LNG Canada and Coastal Gas Link. And then if we build those projects plus Cedar LNG, LNG Canada Phase Two, and Solissum's LNG, what if we got it all done? Because it's all in those that same area. What difference would that make compared to if it never happened? And um great numbers there, which we can unpack. Uh, and then the final part of the report looks at the upstream because everyone's very excited about LNG, but everybody forgets that to have LNG, you need to drill a lot of wells, you know, somewhere in the Monty Basin and get that gas in a pipeline and get it to the coast. And so, what is the contribution of the upstream? And of course it's significant because that's where the royalties come from. That's where like the ongoing um drilling, but also innovation in production comes from. Once you build the facility, the facility is built. There's lots you can do there, but the ongoing activities in the upstream. So, what's that contribution? Um, including looking at fair return and environmental performance, et cetera. So it's over a hundred pages, as you can hear from me describing it. It's very big. But I think it's important in a country that has a very large or I won't say large, but a very activist, activist community. Active, activist community. Um, for people to know that uh there are consequences to things getting canceled. And um that when opportunities don't come to some northern BC community, it's not like 20 other things come to replace it. And the people who drove the shutdown of whatever initiative, um, they don't deal with the consequence of that. And so I think there's a really important ethical component to this to understanding why it's important to build these things.

The Cancellation Counterfactual For Communities

SPEAKER_00 25:14

So, what is that counterfactual? What if there was a cancellation back in 2020? I I was up in the Both Valley that you speak of. That was the pinch point, the critical point. I went to the CN Rail where it was blockaded nearby. I went to the area of the Coastal Gas Link uh blockades circus, almost I would call it. Um what if that had prevailed and there was a cancellation?

SPEAKER_01 25:41

Yeah. So concretely, when you look at that region compared to BC on average, um, you look at things like post-secondary education, 51% of people had post-secondary education, whether it was in trades or university or something. And that stayed flat between 2016 and 2021. Um, whereas in the rest of BC, it started, I think, at 61% and it grew to 66%. Um, so uh that's a gap. Um income levels, I think the average household income had a gap of about $3,000. Um there were gaps in housing quality. So some of the homes might be affordable, but they weren't very good quality, um, especially compared to the rest of the province. So these were real gaps. Um you could measure those.

SPEAKER_00 26:34

You can measure pre-LNG. Correct. And then post-LNG.

SPEAKER_01 26:37

Correct. And so then post-LNG, um, when you just do the two projects, um, you get uh a $19,000 boost in annual income on average in the region, in those corridor communities. So 20 municipalities, 20 First Nations. Um, that's the equivalent of a year and a half of groceries. If you do the other project, that income boost goes up to $26,000. And that's income that does not happen if you don't do the projects. Right.

SPEAKER_00 27:08

Now, is that construction related? And therefore, it's not going to be the same in future, or are there lasting levels that it's been brought to?

SPEAKER_01 27:15

That's construction. That's other industries that form around these kinds of projects that form around ongoing operations. Um, so no, those were lasting benefits, and that was an income level in 2031. So we did a projection that saw how did what was the trajectory of these communities between 2021 and 2031 if we do these projects versus if there's no project. If we do these projects and then we do the other projects versus no projects. And uh we see great changes in uh high uh completion of post-secondary education. Um, 5,500 more people get certifications that they can use anywhere. Um, interestingly, and I, you know, we wanted to have numbers on this in the report because Crystal Smith, the former chief of HISLA, talks a lot about this. Her nation invested a lot in the recovery of the Hysle language. She said, I didn't grow up speaking Hysle, nor did my siblings. But now my sister is a Hysla teacher and we're doing all this stuff. And the money for that comes from their involvement in these projects. And

Language Recovery And Own Source Revenues

SPEAKER_01 28:21

when we looked at the data, we saw 215 additional speakers of indigenous languages that when you looked at that 2016 to 2021 timeframe were declining. The people who had the knowledge were reducing in number. So getting 200 more people to speak is really important, especially to communities who want who are pursuing these uh projects from an economic reconciliation standpoint, from the standpoint of having resources they don't need to ask Ottawa for to pursue things that matter a lot to them, including cultural recovery.

SPEAKER_00 28:56

Now you're talking about the Hysla on the coast. I visited the Watsotan First Nation near Burns Lake, and they showed me this was during the construction phase, this new building. They had a bunch of new buildings actually. They had a a lodge, they had admin, but they had a uh a school that they had built because of the revenues they were getting from this uh pipeline where they were bringing together the elders with the language. And I went in there and uh they let me be a fly in the wall for a little bit. There was a language class going on. There were children in there learning the language from those elders who won't live forever. They need to pass that knowledge on while they have it. Absolutely. And I uh followed up on that recently. I I gather that these programs are going really well for that community, and it wouldn't have happened otherwise.

SPEAKER_01 29:44

And I mean, the number in the report is not just for Heisla, is for the corridor. How many more people in the corridor learn the language? And I'm glad you brought up the Wetsuetan, um, because the report includes a nice table that looks at what are the nations that are part of BC's royalty agreement with some of the nations, which is primarily upstream. Who are the nations who have benefit agreements? And that's all of them along the pipeline route. Uh, 16 of them have equity options. So who has that? And then Heisla had its own special arrangement of pipeline volumes that allowed them to have CEDAR. But when you looked at how did income levels change in First Nations between 2019 and 2023 when these benefit agreements were operative, um, their average income went up 159% to these nations. Own source revenues from these major projects between became 30% of their budgets. And when we included in the report what they were spending that on, uh, and education was the biggest one, not just for recovery of language, but for just education. And uh there was investment in housing also. You know, we were speaking earlier about the quality of housing. Everybody has has heard about challenges with quality of housing on reserves. Now they have uh money to invest in housing. So this is really transformative stuff. And again, if these things had gotten canceled, the nations would not have these revenues to decide for themselves to do all these things that they want to do. And I think that's why they've remained involved, remained at the table, worked through the challenges. I'm not saying was easy, but the point is that it was worth working through these things because on the other side of it are just multiplications of opportunities. Something that started as, you know, new income becomes people remembering the language in Wetzawetin. And that's really important.

Where To Find The Report

SPEAKER_00 31:43

So what's the name of the report and where can someone see it?

SPEAKER_01 31:46

So a report is called When Our Nation Builds, and they can find it at energysecurefuture.ca. If you go to the website, you know, you'll see reports, and there's a whole micro site because it's so massive. We made a whole mini-site for it. So you can get the report in pieces. The pieces I described, you can get it as a whole report. We have videos where we interview uh different leaders in the business, um, small business. Uh, you know, one entrepreneur talks about having to leave Kinemat because there were no opportunities, and LNG Canada creating the conditions to come back to the community with his business, serve the project. And, you know, he gives the personal anecdote that he had a family member who wasn't well, but they were there because that project made opportunity in that community. And again, these are the kind of the human stories of why it matters when these opportunities go to particular places.

Upstream Royalties And World Price Access

SPEAKER_00 32:42

Now, part four is about what the oil and gas people call the upstream.

SPEAKER_01 32:47

Correct.

SPEAKER_00 32:48

And I'm intrigued by that because I find that it's the one part of this that is really hard to explain. I don't think we're kind of ready for it. And I've had the opportunity to go to the upstream or the Motany, where the gas comes from, in short, and get to meet a lot of communities and people and see it for myself, and thereby I've come to understand it pretty well. But wherever I go, I just find it's not something that everyone's set up for. So um I'd like to break it down because I would say that it's very likely, and you tell me if I'm right or wrong. I know you always tell me if I'm wrong. Um I can count on you for that.

SPEAKER_01 33:27

Uh I'll tell you your rights.

SPEAKER_00 33:29

Okay, I'll I'll take that too. But um, is it not true that a huge part of the value to the Canadian economy and the BC economy comes from the upstream when we're talking about LNG?

SPEAKER_01 33:40

Yes. So uh royalties are the most important component of the way the public gets value from our resources. And that's true.

SPEAKER_00 33:49

Publicly owned resources too, right?

SPEAKER_01 33:51

Right, right. And and that's because, and and maybe our viewers know it, maybe they don't, you know, a lot of this happens in what's called crown lands. And the crown leases the land to companies to develop, uh, and they produce it. And the people, you know, get a portion of the value of the sales of these products to go back into healthcare and education and building roads, et cetera. And so that the public gets value and the private player that invested the money gets a value. And so that's it's the royalties that continue forever as these projects operate, because the drilling needs to continue forever to fill the pipeline. And um the report speaks about kind of, I think the when you compare the royalties from LNG or from natural gas, we're talking the upstream, compared to mining or forestry or other resource sectors, it's more than those combined. And so this is a massive contribution to BC's budget and to what allows the province to operate, which I think is is part of why there's a real realization and unity around, okay, we got to do this because this is important. Um, and the other thing is that uh the product is the gas and the price to get on the market is is what's gonna pay for things, and including those royalties. And so in the domestic market, today Canada, because of our market constraints, accesses something called Henry Hub, which is a US kind of hub of gas pricing, and ACO, which is in Edmonton, which is a another hub of gas pricing. And those gas prices have been, you know, $1.30 in MCF, $2. The European spot price is was $18 for a while. Asia's spot price is $120 or the gap is significant, and we could never access those prices. Or some of our companies access them by getting, you know, gas to California and somehow getting it somewhere.

unknown 36:01

Right.

SPEAKER_01 36:02

Why are we doing this to ourselves? So, you know, let's get access to world prices. We don't know what's going to happen to world prices forever, but having that optionality in the same way that consumers want optionality to buy gas from Canada so that they can kind of manage their risks, we should want optionality in terms of who we can sell to to get the highest value for our ourselves and our people.

SPEAKER_00 36:27

Now, this is a claim that's been made for a long time, but now we have a year of actual shipments. What did your study tell you about how much money has come back to Canadians by monetizing the resource more effectively in the last 12 months since LNG Canada started?

SPEAKER_01 36:43

So we have not looked at that.

SPEAKER_00 36:45

Might be a little early for the official stats to come in.

SPEAKER_01 36:48

We're a little bit early on those stats. But you know, what we did look in the report is when when we when you look at fair return um on the LNG side, uh, what do we get in terms of uh you see the project investing in uh hospitals, investing in uh creating revenues that you know represent, I don't I don't remember the exact number, but like, you know, over a hundred nurses for 30 years. And so these are concrete things that have changed um in the region um because the project was built. Uh, whether it's again, you know, buying a CT scanner, uh, these uh and one of the exciting examples is Heisla itself donating to the Kitamat Regional Hospital uh as a nation and having that matched. And uh this is again exciting stuff. And so um I think I am excited to see how much more money we are gonna get um from uh accessing world markets. Uh the report includes a projection of royalties, you know, going out a few years, but it's hard to predict very far. But the point is we have seen on a consistent basis, and we put those prices in the report, what the world prices for gas look like compared to the domestic or North American market. And the difference is is significant and would make a significant difference to Canadians.

SPEAKER_00 38:18

Well, with Transmountain, which ships oil and there's the new pipe there, we've got two years of shipments on that because it started uh in June of 2024. So you you've seen the information come through the the system of statistics and the numbers, which I won't recite because I forget them, um, fortunately. I'll spare you that. Um have shown, I think, quite clearly that by closing the gap, which also exists for oil, it's not just gas that we basically give away to the Americans. It's it's oil and gas both. Um and these these two projects on the west coast of Canada are solving that one problem for those different commodities. So we know it's there for oil and it's there for gas based on all the indicators we have. Absolutely. So I think we can have a high confidence level that when the numbers do finally start to trickle out, it's gonna be the same story.

SPEAKER_01 39:09

Mm-hmm. You've made me want to get those numbers and add them to our website.

SPEAKER_00 39:14

Well, I think yeah, uh, the sooner the better we can we can get those. Um, I'm sure it'll be soon. Um now there's there's a whole other side to it, and you've mentioned part three of the study.

Social License And The New Opposition Playbook

SPEAKER_00 39:25

And I just want to get into that because I um uh am constantly seeing, especially based in Vancouver as I am, that they're uh just as uh you don't have a hundred percent of the people all voting on the same uh ticket on the ballot. Um there's people who see things differently and also very differently. There's uh West Coast and other parts of the country have got uh a base of opposition to a lot of economic propositions. Um you you might you might say uh the environmental movement has has sometimes earned the anti-everything moniker, which I I think is probably seen as unfair by those who are looking at a particular issue. They might say, well, I've got a legitimate issue with the water or or the the emissions in this area or something. And and I I think there are all these legitimate issues too, but each one is solved by itself, and then you have um the cumulative impact of that, which is social license to do these big big projects, which clearly has been secured. Nevertheless, it feels as if there is a pretty mature industry and careers built on this idea that uh for every proposition there has to be a counter-proposition. Um and that's what was behind what you referenced the the blockades in 2019, 2020. Um where do you think that sits now? Do you think the Canadian public is um looking at that and saying, you know, go on, you know, you go guys, uh oppose that project, or is it more um come on, get out of the way. Do you do you think the the public support for um this kind of stage set of the the the two parties duking it out is is something that Canadians are interested in or or think is useful in making it all, you know, a better outcome?

SPEAKER_01 41:19

I think what was interesting about some of the past campaigns is a lot of them, and this continues to be the case, but I think a little less so, a lot of them were were framed around protecting indigenous people almost from resource development. And I think the fact that many nations are closely involved in pipeline projects and in the export facilities themselves and in the upstream, and they own, you know, businesses that supply projects in drilling changes because now those leaders are on TV. Uh Eva Clayton, president of Nishka Nation, is on TV talking about why her nation is trying to build. That's a new thing, really.

SPEAKER_00 42:00

There wasn't that level of awareness or willingness to step up and and uh stand in the bright lights.

SPEAKER_01 42:06

Correct. So whereas once upon a time, the reporter in Toronto would say, First nations oppose X, now they'll say some First Nations oppose X, because those leaders are stepping out and talking about why their nations are pursuing things. So I think that's really important because it changes um the kinds of arguments um those groups can make. Um and uh and you know, some of the other cases. So right now there's a campaign that seems to be ramping up in the region related to the health effects of fracking, um, the health effects of LNG. Um, and you know, the prescriptions are we need to stop, stop all of this, and we need to avoid uh connecting buildings to gas and we need to transition and on and on and on. And the fact is, we've had um policymakers try to implement some versions of these ideas and they're just not workable. And us, you know, aside from the need to sell something to the world in order to have a balance of trade that pays your bills, um, some of these energy solutions aren't working well for people. And so even the city of Vancouver wants to back away from the ban on natural gas and new buildings. Like everybody's learning all these lessons about pragmatism that maybe they didn't before. So I think these lived experiences are going to color the way Canadians receive some of these campaigns in the future. Now, that doesn't mean those of us who care about these projects happening and who care about the human side of why they should happen have can kind of sit on our laurels. We have to continually make the case. And you know, those courageous leaders like Eva Clayton and like Karen. And have to get out there and constantly explain to people, you know, why did we decide to do this? And um, and that's the way it is, you know.

Energy Addition And Rising Global Demand

SPEAKER_00 44:10

Shannon, I I was just looking at the new edition, the 75th edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy from the Energy Institute. And I was just intrigued by a couple of things. The bigger trends going on with how humans use energy in the world today. And they say that between 24, 2024, and 2025, there was a rise in the total uh energy supply that goes to humans of 1.7%. So that's one year change. That's that's quite a lot for one year, I would think. Um they found that renewables were the largest source of growth in that total supply. And also they found that fossil fuels are now 86% of total energy supply. Are you surprised by the 86%?

SPEAKER_01 44:57

I'm I'm surprised because for a long time it was about 80%. And uh there's been such an effort over the past few decades, billions of dollars spent to transition away from those fuels. Um, but now it's even higher. It's 86%. So that would that's it's only interesting because it's higher, but it's it's not that surprising.

SPEAKER_00 45:23

Right. So renewables are growing, hurrah.

SPEAKER_01 45:26

Hurrah.

SPEAKER_00 45:28

Um, but so is all energy. And maybe a better term, and there are energy scholars who are saying this, is addition. We're going through an energy addition. It's not really a transition. Maybe it's a transition in some ways, but not in the ways that maybe a lot of people have been. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 45:46

I mean, I think the thing that's really important for people to keep in mind is that human well-being is like directly correlated to how much energy you use. So the more you use, the better off you are, the healthier you are, the more food you have, the cooler you are at night. Like there's all kinds of stats on this that we can put as uh kind of links on your website of this uh podcast, but there's a direct correlation. So that's one thing. Um, everywhere in the world, standards of living are going up. Um, when I did that interview with India's High Commissioner, he had explained how the country did a massive effort to get propane everywhere to be a cooking fuel because before that, people were burning wood, dung, whatever in their homes, and that was causing all kinds of issues. Now they have a clean burning propane. Um, and but he said there are still 200 million people in India with no electricity or with no reliable electricity. And he said, My prime minister has been very clear, we will do whatever it takes to get the energy we need to get those people electricity. So if that's the mindset, that's just more. Uh, you can't transition and say we're gonna leave those 200 million people without electricity. 200 million people using electricity means we're using more energy. And now today, of course, we have these new applications for energy, um, which is data centers. Uh, I think, you know, last year I looked at what is the total electricity consumption of all data centers in the world. And it was something like the equivalent of Japan's energy consumption. And Japan is a first world country with 120 million people. And that was data centers, you know, a year or two ago. And they've just kept building them, right? And so we're adding cut for we're adding multiple first world countries of electricity use globally. You need energy for that. And because of the nature of the technology, you need energy that's reliable and doesn't go out when the sun sets.

SPEAKER_00 47:48

Now, with data centers, this is kind of a new topic.

Data Centers And Local Backlash Risks

SPEAKER_00 47:51

We they've been around a long time, but suddenly everyone's talking about them because they're showing up. They're bigger, there's more of them. Um, what are the public issues that you see arising, including ones that people in industry and government should be thinking about if they aren't already?

SPEAKER_01 48:06

Yeah. Uh interestingly, Energy for a Secure Future worked with ResourceWorks uh on a municipal energy dialogue about this. And so we we talked to community leaders, both municipal and first nation, about data centers. Um and, you know, the the stack, there are multiple stacks that you need for uh successful data centers. Uh the the bottom, the foundation of the stack is energy, and then you need land, and then you need water, and then you need infrastructure. And um the more of the these things you build, um, you're coming into contact with other land users and other energy users and other water users. And so I think what policymakers need to keep in mind is um that these things are really visible. And wherever they pop up, somebody's gonna think my property values are gonna go down because this thing is like not it is within sight of my home. And so I think, and Alberta is an example of a of a of a jurisdiction that really wants to draw uh data centers in. Uh, they want to use gas uh locally to power these facilities without having to worry about pipelines. But they're gonna need to do uh and a lot of education of the public about why is this safe? Why is this not gonna use up all our water? Why uh, you know, can this actually be a net benefit in terms of infrastructure? Um, otherwise, they're gonna get a lot of pushback, like the pushback we see south of the border.

SPEAKER_00 49:43

Shannon, um you're always on when I see you. And I'm probably always on too when you see

Data Centers As Community Anchor Loads

SPEAKER_00 49:50

me. But what do you do to unwind?

SPEAKER_01 49:52

Oh. Before I talk about how to unwind, I want to say one more thing about data centers. So another uh uh panel and discussion I was involved with included the Woodland Crenation, and this was at the First Nations Major Projects Coalition event. Uh, because it's like, what are First Nations doing with data centers? And uh a lot of First Nations in Canada, uh, for various jurisdictional fall between the cracks reasons, don't have access to natural gas on reserve. They have electricity, they get propane, but they don't have natural gas, even when their neighbor like across the road has it. Right.

SPEAKER_00 50:32

So their energy is more expensive. Twice as they have to work harder.

SPEAKER_01 50:37

Sometimes three times as expensive. And for the company to bring them that gas now costs a lot of money because they have a small population. And so the payback from the the utility rate is not going to cover the capital cost.

SPEAKER_00 50:51

It's not a great incentive for that company to make that investment.

SPEAKER_01 50:54

And not only is there not a good incentive, but there are laws in Canada that prevent utilities from passing on the costs of those projects to all the other ratepayers who could subsidize. There are jurisdictions like Ontario.

SPEAKER_00 51:05

It seems unjust. I mean, hey, why not let that remote community get what everyone else has?

SPEAKER_01 51:13

Indeed. And in some places like Ontario, they managed to figure out, I think they added a dollar to everybody's bill to get gas to places that that didn't have it. But for you know, certain First Nations, they look at, hey, our nation is near gas. We could have a data center come, we could have them build the infrastructure they need and then build infrastructure for us. Because now we have this massive anchor load. And that's not just true for First Nation. I think that's something all rural communities can think about. Like, how do we leverage this to uh make it more affordable for us to have a rec center? Because now we can access the cheaper energy. So I think, you know, to what I was saying earlier, the government needs to tell people, you know, uh the risk management side of the picture, but I think there's a whole opportunity side of the picture and stories like that that can be shared that show how there can be win-wins from advancing these projects.

Singing To Unwind And Final Thoughts

SPEAKER_00 52:07

All right. You're not off the hook. Oh, and I'm not sure.

SPEAKER_01 52:11

Uh so what do I do at on wind? So I like to sing. I'm a singer. I trained as a in opera with a private teacher for a number of years, and I'm gonna be doing a lot more singing in the coming uh year. So I do I do a lot of singing to unwind.

SPEAKER_00 52:28

Um, you're really good at letting stress out.

SPEAKER_01 52:32

Yes, yes. You can just let it out. You can just, you know.

SPEAKER_00 52:36

Um listen to that.

SPEAKER_01 52:39

Uh and then uh, you know, I I read, I read a lot of books. And uh I like uh spending time with uh friends and family uh when I get a chance. That's how I unwind. Do I unwind? Maybe I don't unwind, Stuart. All my hobbies involve like product.

SPEAKER_00 52:56

So you can go in saying, but afterwards you're we're still wound. That's okay.

SPEAKER_01 53:01

I'm wound, but I'm happy.

SPEAKER_00 53:03

Well, this is the I think uh you're the second, maybe third return visitor to Power Struggle, so I appreciate you've come back. And I hope you come back in the future. So thanks for coming on today.

SPEAKER_01 53:17

Thank you for having me.

SPEAKER_00 53:19

That's it for today's conversation. Shannon Joseph has brought an important view to this show today. The read on where LNG and Canada's diversification story are headed matters more than ever right now. If this episode gave you a clear read on the stakes, especially why we can't let the shut it down campaigns win this round, do us and yourself a favor and subscribe. Leave a comment, share it with someone who needs the facts, not the spin. For more on the energy conversation shaping our future, find us at powerstruggle.ca, also on YouTube, and all your favorite places to get your podcasts. I'm Stuart Muir. Until next time, thanks for joining Power Struggle.