Mining Indaba: Africa at a Crossroads I Resource Curse or Strategic Power?

Africa's current geopolitical landscape is shaping opportunities and risks for the continent. 

In this podcast, we explore how global competition, governance, and policy choices could influence Africa’s ability to capture long-term value from its critical mineral wealth. 

Speakers include:

• Assheton Stewart Carter I Executive Chair and Founder at TDi Sustainability
• Isabelle Ramdoo I Director of the IISD-hosted Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Forum on Mining, Minerals, Metals and Sustainable Development (IGF)

This episode is part of the TDi Sustainability special series of podcasts produced for the Mining Indaba event that will take place in Cape Town between 9th – 12th February 2026. Find out more about the event>

Transcript

Setting the Scene: Geopolitics, Critical Minerals, and Africa’s Moment

Introducing Isabelle Ramdoo and the Role of the IGF

Are Critical Minerals the “New Oil”? What the Analogy Gets Wrong

Assheton Stewart Carter 0:09

Hello and welcome to this special edition of Suits and Boots, the TDI sustainability podcast series in conjunction with the investing in African Mining Indaba. In this series, speakers at the 2026 Mining Indaba event discuss some of the key themes that will be covered at the conference. I'm Assheton Stewart Carter, Executive Chair at TDI. So in today's episode, we'll explore how the current geopolitical landscape is shaping opportunities and risks for the African continent, and how global competition, governance, and policy choices could influence Africa's ability to capture long-term value from its critical mineral wealth. And joining us today for this discussion is Isabelle Ramdoo, who is the director of the Intergovernmental Forum on Mining, Minerals, Metals, and Sustainable Development, otherwise known as the IGF. And it's wonderful to have Isabelle here today as she is one of the most respected experts on resource policy. She's an economist with over 25 years of experience in trade and industrial policies, a trade negotiator for the government of Mauritius at one time, and generally hugely knowledgeable on local content, local economic linkages, and investment, having directed programs on that at the IGF and as an advisor to the African Minerals Development Center. So a very warm welcome to Isabel. Thank you very much, Assheton. And it's a real pleasure to be with you today. Fantastic. So I wonder if we could start with a little bit of a scene setter. So we've heard quite often critical minerals framed as the new oil of the global economy. And this sounds really very exciting if I were an African government, as we all know that the wealth that oil has generated for some parts of the globe. But from a political and governance perspective, what does this analogy get right? And where does it risk oversimplifying the challenge facing resource-rich countries to benefit from their natural endowment? I mean, is it in fact a useful way to think about Africa's role in global value chains or does it limit it in some way?

Why Criticality Is Different: Risk, Vulnerability, and Substitution

Isabelle Ramdoo 2:23

Okay, so critical minerals and oil is very interesting because both of them are extractive. So there is a tendency indeed to think that uh critical minerals today, given the attention that is given to it, is the new oil. Generally concentrated in a few countries, highly concentrated, I would say. And from a geopolitical perspective, one could kind of think we're talking about the same thing. However, um there are big differences between uh what people call critical minerals and oil. Uh, first of all, the term criticality itself is associated with risk and vulnerabilities, which is a little bit different from the oil sector. It's associated with a number of vulnerabilities for different reasons because the drivers that are leading to the increased demand in critical minerals is quite different. Here we're talking about the energy transition, we're talking about um defense, we're talking about digitalization, which means that the breadth of commodities that we're looking at makes this uh category um also to some extent a little bit of a moving target. Um and we're talking of many different elements, where I, or whereas oil, we can see, well, you've got differences in grades, but here we're talking about things that are very, very different with very different characteristics and that have different use. I think for from that perspective, to me, um it makes the two a little bit uh very different to compare. I wouldn't compare oil to say critical minerals is the new oil. Um also for other reasons, uh, technological innovation tomorrow can make some of those critical criticality uh redundant if you manage to get over a risk or uh a particular vulnerability, as we are seeing today with the case of cobalt, innovation uh for batteries. Innovation is uh, you know, technological innovation is driving new types of batteries which may or may not use certain commodities. So for that reason, I think uh, you know, the substitutes, etc., make those um commodities very different. We've heard um there are talks about creating an OPEC for critical minerals, which is kind of this analogy with the oil sector, where I think uh it would be very different to have um those different commodities that have different prices with different trends, um, have them under one umbrella, like it is for the oil sector.

The Resource Curse Revisited: What Went Wrong in Past Booms

Assheton Stewart Carter 5:02

Yeah, that's great. So what I took from that is that if you're a government in Africa and you're told that there's minerals within your territory, within your jurisdiction, you should be cautious to oversimplify what that actually means in terms of potential um economic rent, because there's many differences where you might hit oil, you're pretty much guaranteed there's going to be an application for it when you hit minerals. There's lots of factors to take into account. And I guess that leads me to the question about, you know, the concept that this this might seem for many governments like manna from heaven, you know. Here we have this great endowment. But what we've learned, of course, is that even though you might have all the gas and minerals are generating substantial revenues, and that has been the case in Africa for sure, but we've also seen some of those countries which remain terribly poor. So, you know, this is almost like the third time round. Now we've got a new opportunity here for Africa. How are we going to make sure that some of those values, some of that value or most of that value stays in the region? And perhaps a pace to start is what has gone wrong? What have the lessons learned? What have you seen from working with the IGF that we can learn from this and ensure that it doesn't happen again?

Volatility, Governance, and Why Institutions Matter

Dutch Disease and the Crowding-Out of Productive Sectors

Isabelle Ramdoo 6:22

You know, what you're telling me is um kind of reminds us that there is a theory around uh the extractive sector, around the resource curse. There is a paradox where countries that are very rich in mineral resources compared to countries that have less of them have have perpetuated um experience of slower growth, of um weaker institutions, of higher inequality compared to other countries. And one of the key reasons to me, um, and it's it's uh I I can uh I'll come back to this uh later on, is because that uh the the rents that generated from these extractive resources have kept them in a situation of overdependence. The the the revenues from uh those natural resources, those those extractive resources have crowded out investment in other sectors like manufacturing. Um it was relatively easy for countries that have a regular flow of revenues to you know not necessarily invest in other sectors. Um, so that have left those economies relatively vulnerable. And the the revenues from those commodities were also extremely volatile, and it's still the case. I think uh commodity prices are very vulnerable, are highly vulnerable. They make government budget unstable, they make long-term planning difficult, uh, which kind of perpetuates this system of economies being extremely concentrated. These large revenues have weakened governance, and we've seen this in a lot of countries, many of our member countries, and it's kind of one of the uh you know underpinning reasons why uh it's very difficult when you're thinking now moving forward with the new third or fifth or sixth boom, depending on how long countries have been mining. Um, large revenues have weakened governance, have fueled rent seeking, and that's a situation where it's very easy for you to be comfortable. You you're not accountable to uh your your um taxpayers because actually your revenue sector generates more rents than what people pay. So you have you're less accountable. Also, um, you know, uh as a result of that, to some extent fueled corruption, political capture uh instead of uh investment in productive sectors. And when resource wealth are not well managed, they're not transparent and not inclusive, they fuel conflict at the national level. So there's a kind of uh a feeding process where the overall governance structure also um weakens uh uh agency in countries. And I would say uh, you know, these days the limited capacity of institutions uh kind of limit them to put to go to move forward. So there's a lot of internal domestic reforms and and you know, thinking about how do you turn this around if you want now to make of this new boom or new uh opportunity, at least from rising demand, um, a different um uh different outcome for your country.

Assheton Stewart Carter 9:34

Yeah, with that wanting to kind of simplify um your excellent remarks, uh I guess there's kind of two things I picked up on there. One is that the cause of the inability of some of these countries to capture the revenues in the past and to create value is been because this phenomenon of resource development has led to the undermining of institutions rather than their strengthening, or maybe not led in a causal fashion, but is certainly a positive correlation between the two. Um, and the second one I think is you know what you were describing was the Dutch disease, where you have this boom in natural resources, um, which is causing the country's currency to depreciate, and then the other sectors such as agriculture, which many kind of uh developing countries have relied on, to become less competitive. So everything goes, everything goes wrong at the same time. Um, so if I think about, you know, what can we actually do about this? I mean, one thing is, you know, for the first problem with the institutional strengthening, I guess international development banks, uh multilateral development banks can look at these policy-backed loans conditional on the strengthening of institutions, but also that governments can start to look further downstream so that they can try and create value from manufacturing rather than have that become less competitive and rely just on commodities. And this has been intended in some parts of Africa in the last few years. Some large developers have actually had to meet the expectations of governments to put in place downstream industries, smelting, refinery, and even kind of fabrication in some cases. But do you think that the African countries, the African governments, now that critical minerals or now that minerals, some minerals are becoming critical and sought after, and there's a bit of a you know, a grab and incentive to get these minerals and secure supply chains? Do you think they have more negotiating power? So can they actually turn around and go, yeah, come in, you're absolutely welcome. But we need to add value here and you need to add that to your development proposal.

Africa at the Table: Negotiating With the EU, US, and China

Isabelle Ramdoo 11:48

The really the basis foundational uh issue, I wouldn't say necessarily challenge. Well, it is a challenge, but I think the the basic foundational change is really to strengthen institutions. I mean, taking I'm gonna take some examples from my own background. I was a trade negotiator before, and it is uh absolutely essential if you want to strengthen your negotiating power. When you are negotiating, I cover a very small country where we were not, we didn't have any strength in negotiation compared to countries that are big producers of some uh critical minerals. You know, I take countries that have, you know, like the DR Congo that have 60% of cobalt or South Africa that has a massive amount of PGMs, over 90%. You do have on paper or underground, but geology underground is nothing, it's dust and rocks. You need those institutions, you need foundational um uh industrial capabilities, because to turn them into an opportunity, it's a combination of those different things. Institutions absolutely have to be strengthened. And I think as much as the development banks and international partners have a big role to play, it is something that the governments themselves have to really strengthen. There are a couple of issues that also are more enabling uh conditions that are needed. Uh, so the conditions for investment, energy, access to energy, infrastructure, skills, um, plus a series of other things that make your industrial uh capabilities function. If you are a landlocked country, working with your neighbors, regional collaboration, regional cooperation is absolutely key. Now, on the other side, very often uh African countries are negotiating with partners that are way bigger than them. So that's this imbalance in who is at what side of the table is another key factor to me, which we've seen in the past have, I would say, challenged countries in getting what they need out of negotiations.

Assheton Stewart Carter 13:56

You touched on something there, which I thought was interesting. And you said that in negotiations, there need to be cooperation between African countries. And I guess you know, you're in Paris, I'm in London, and we're between China and the United States. And, you know, if we want to negotiate, we need to kind of show that we are cooperating within the EU and with the EU's friends and natives. And I guess you're saying it's the same thing there. But there's some things which are going to be outside of our control. You know, we might not have some of the things that our markets are interested in or the people we're negotiating in want. So, what are those things? How is Africa going to negotiate with the EU, US, China, and its other interests?

Isabelle Ramdoo 14:47

We have some experience in negotiating uh with the EU, for example, on the African continent. You know, uh that that's that's what I was doing before, you know, going uh international. We were negotiating trade agreements with the European Union. There was those economic partnerships agreement at that time. Uh, and we were not negotiating as individual countries, uh, we were negotiating as regional blocks or sub-regional blocks. So I think um there are a couple of things that have that are key. One of them is know exactly what you want from your partner, because that's the case on the other side. So the US, China, uh EU, or any other country that comes to the table, whether they come uh to a region or to a specific country, they know exactly what they want. You know, it's a delicate balance in negotiations to get a so-called win-win, where you you you go there with with very clear um objectives of what you want to keep for yourself and what you can give and get in return. And it's not an easy thing to also balance at the continental level national interest and regional interest, because sometimes they don't go in the same direction. In um other areas, we've seen it in wider, broader trade negotiations where countries were not very clear on what they are negotiating for and what is the pathway. So you don't negotiate for today. When you're when you have a deal, you're stuck in that deal for a very, very long time. So if you don't have flexibilities for yourself to be able to adjust, uh then those deals are not going to stand. So I think this is a very important element, looks very basic, but it's a very important element to be clear from a national, regional, and also know what your partner is going to expect from you.

Assheton Stewart Carter 16:36

Those are good pointers. And, you know, you're talking about collaboration there and hubs. There's been a lot of talk about creating these corridors, the veto corridor is one. And I guess that talks a little bit about African nations cooperating, collaborating together, although it's driven by external investors. Um, so they're still going to have to work hard to ensure that those benefits are derived from the countries through which it passes. How realistic, though, do you think it is for expectations to focus on downstream manufacturing industries when countries like China and the United States are so far advanced in the technology? Where should African nations focus? You know, you're saying they should be very clear-eyed about what they want and they've got a better chance of getting it. But what is it that they should be asking for?

Isabelle Ramdoo 17:26

If you look at uh the continent, it's it's gotta be a very useful continent, but it's also a continent that has a lot to catch up on. So if you look at you know energy gaps, infrastructure gaps, even basic, you know, agriculture or food manufacturing or basic manufacturing in general, there's a lot of gaps to fill. So I think it's a mistake to run after technologies and you know compete with China, US. There's a lot of things that the continent can do for itself because that's what the population will need. So when you are a developing country, you have the advantage of having a huge growing market. So focusing on what your people will need. If you're thinking about electrification and electric vehicles, you know, two and three wheelers, manufacturing all those uh renewable energy or uh energy-related technologies, because 40% of the continent is not electrified. So that's your market. So I I hear you know uh people talking about electric vehicles, et cetera. Who's driving a Tesla in Africa? Very few people, right? So what are you running after when you're thinking about industries? Are you running after the market that is outside? Because then you will be dependent. So you're moving the goalpost from extractive to another dependency that is externally driven rather than focusing on what is it that the continent will need in terms of uh electrification, in terms of mobility, in terms of infrastructure, in terms of construction, in terms of you know housing and all those things, that all of them need minerals. We know that what is not grown is mined, and you have minerals in everything that you need. So does it really mean because the focus globally is on you know high-end digitalization or you know, smartphones, that we have to focus on the same thing? I think there's a lot more that we can do, and we're not looking at what we need for ourselves as a continent.

Assheton Stewart Carter 19:29

I think that's uh a very important point. And you know, Africa is unique in another way in that it's the only continent where the population is actually growing. Um, and I think six percent of the population is under 25. So we we need to focus on that rather than just thinking about the export value. Let's actually think about the domestic economy as well and how this can how this can grow that. Um, one other thing you kind of brought up was about investment. How does Africa compete for this investment? It's all you know, you hear Over and over again at conferences, how Africa needs investment, especially in the juniors, the expiration phase. Um, but now other countries are looking to you know onshore their investment in the minerals and especially the downstream minerals development, whether that's the US or um the Middle East. What can or how can governments you know balance what they need in terms of capturing value within their country at the same time attracting investment and the right sort of investment?

Local Content and Comparative Advantage: What Africa Can Do Best

Isabelle Ramdoo 20:36

Yeah, I I think the upstream uh is uh we we have to separate the conversation about upstream investment and be the downstream investment. I think upstream investment is tied to the geology. So if you are an investor and you're into copper, you will not go in a place that was no copper. So I think the upstream part is relatively easy, but there are challenges because if you're looking, SP regularly comes up with those numbers in terms of where is investment going upstream. And still you see Africa, although um they have, I would say, in terms of value of exploration or uh geological uh um potential, highest geological potential because it's underexplored, yet uh investment is not necessarily flowing there. I think there you have issues around the perceived risks of what investments are looking for. It's not about the ability to attract because the minerals are there. But midstream and downstream is it's it's a different story. You don't need to have the minerals to have a refinery. You don't need to have the minerals to have a downstream factory. So here you've got other challenges and other issues, which was linked to what I was mentioning earlier. If you don't have energy or your cost of energy is too high, you don't have the infrastructure to bring those um refined or or uh concentrated products at a relatively, I would say, competitive cost to a port, then that will that will go, the raw material will go to where uh the markets are closer connected to the midstream. You've got those issues with um you know that you have to fix in terms of the basic um uh ecosystem around investment. And obviously, um I think have not having the the basic uh industrial capabilities as you have in China with huge special economic zones where you know incentives that those governments are giving is unparalleled to what African countries can give themselves. It's really a question of financial means. So when you bring all those things together, you have uh, you know, I would call this perceived competitive advantage, but it's actually a competitive advantage because you are able to, as a government and the states now are intervening quite a lot in advanced economies, which was not the case a couple of years ago. We were, you know, you know, industrial policy was a taboo. Um, it gives them an edge over many countries that are struggling with other things like health, you know, uh education, etc. So there is an unfair uh level of competition. The market in Africa is huge and is growing. So I don't think you you you if it's a question of where are you going to sell your proceeds or your products, that's not the point. The point is, are you able as a nation to attract and then compare, compete with others that have more means than you?

Assheton Stewart Carter 23:35

Yeah, and uh I I guess it's a similar question. You might have answered some of this, but you are part of one of your expertise is in localization, if I can call it that, local content beneficiation. And you know, kind of based on your experience, how can we, or how can African countries get this right? Um, and I think you answered some of this, but you talked about competitive advantage. I was thinking more about comparative advantage. So, what is it that African countries or some African countries or collaboration between them can do better than anyone else?

Isabelle Ramdoo 24:10

So you can it's more it's it's more difficult to compete with China in batteries than it is to compete with smelters if your smelters are efficient. And the efficiency of those smelters depends on all that makes a capital-intensive sector efficient. And in many African countries, you know, you can you you can bring down those costs, but if the energy is not there in the first place, then there's no question of costs. It's really a question of not having some of those capabilities that make a very highly capital-intensive sector function, which is different from a sector where that is more diffused, like uh an automotive sector or you know, manufacturing batteries or something. You know, it's it's a whole realm of consistency across various types of what is in your industrial uh strategy a basket, which countries have to look. It's it's a whole of economy approach. It's not an infrastructure, a mining or an industrial approach.

Assheton Stewart Carter 25:13

Yeah, and one thing, you know, coming out of that, one theme coming out of that is the theme of power of energy and energy generation, the inputs. And it almost goes full circle to where we began when we're moving out of the hydrocarbon age into the minerals age, because now if you want to have affordable energy and cheap energy, projections are saying that's more likely to come from renewables, which in themselves need critical minerals. So there we are. We're almost coming to the end, but I we haven't spoken much about um ESG standards or corporate sustainability. And you know, the ESG standards have been a target for those who see this as a hindrance to um efficiency and capital growth and economic growth. For Africa, how do you see the ESG standards, corporate sustainability, responsible production? What role does that play? Is that a hindrance to economic growth in the mineral sector, or is it actually potentially an advantage to demonstrate this is a responsible source of minerals and metals?

ESG Standards: Constraint or Strategic Advantage?

Isabelle Ramdoo 26:20

I think we we uh we cannot say that having good standards and having uh you know good corporate uh responsibility is bad for business. I think that's uncontested. I think to me, uh the the issue is many countries are not part of uh the conversation to create those standards. So everybody realized, everybody recognized that standards are good. If you don't have high standards today, you don't have access to markets. Take, for example, the European market. You know, they're coming up with carbon border adjustment measures because of uh your investment they're making themselves to lower their GSG emissions. So I think nobody will tell you that standards um they don't want to have it. The question is, are they uh able to craft it to endorse it in in their own countries? And we are seeing this. So if you look at uh the private standards or the standards that are being um that that the industry has to meet, the ESG standards that they have to meet to be able to access finance, et cetera, you don't have necessarily a direct uh parallel with government's um ability to develop those standards so that companies can meet. You you have to you have to have good environmental standards. You need to have to conduct your ESIA to be able to get a permit, etc. So there is this, to me, piecemeal that we don't stitch together to tell the story.

Assheton Stewart Carter 27:55

Yeah, so I guess your message there is one, hold the line on ESG, it's going to continue to be important. But investors and private companies might be surprised by what they found in terms of the stringency of the requirements of governments when it comes to development. And, you know, let's not assume it's not there, let's assume it is there and discover or work out how we can collaborate on that. Well, that's great. The final question, I guess, is a little bit of a crystal ball one. Try and look ahead 10 years. The IGF continues to be an enormous success underneath your directorship. But if you're looking at African countries, what do you see in place that they've done to be successful in converting this mineral wealth into long-term development prosperity? If they listened to you really carefully, the Indaba in 2026, what would they have done?

Isabelle Ramdoo 28:53

First of all, I really hope that uh you know uh African countries and the continent in general has its full place on the negotiating table. Because that's the beginning of everything. If you're not able to negotiate your place on the table, you're not able to shape the rules, then people will decide for you. Number two, I think I really hope that countries keep their focus on their objectives around diversification. Because if we were speaking earlier around the resource scarce and the Dutch disease and all those, you know, uh vicious circles of dependency, it's because countries are not diversified. Economies remain dependent, economies remain vulnerable, raw materials are uh finite. So another round uh may not happen if we dig up everything that is under the ground. I think it's very important for countries to be consistent on what their development pathway is, and then work with the partners to make sure that they are able to um have you know have the flexibility to develop their economies and the well-being of their people.

Assheton Stewart Carter 30:00

So very clear messages then to conclude with. If you're not at the table, you're on the menu. Um, diversify your economy in your industrialization strategy and act together. Well, thank you once again, um, Isabelle, for a very interesting talk. I feel very privileged to have that pre-Indaba conversation with you, and I'm sure people are going to be thrilled to hear you in a couple of weeks' time in Cape Town. To our listeners, please check out the rest of the special series of Mining Indaba podcasts on the TDI Suits and Boots Podcast channel. I look forward to seeing you all at the event in February, where you can hear more from Isabelle on this topic. I'm Assheton Carter, and thank you for listening.