Weaponized Optimism

Megan Comfort, Director of Business Banking at Nevada State Bank, sits down with Jeremy Aguero, Principal Analyst with Applied Analysis, for a wide‑ranging discussion on Nevada’s economic outlook and key findings from Nevada State Bank’s 13th Annual Small Business Survey. The episode takes listeners inside what small business owners are seeing on the ground and what it reveals about broader economic shifts. Aguero highlights rising optimism amid uncertainty, from easing workforce pressures to rapid AI adoption, and reframes resilience as a competitive advantage. His concept of “weaponized optimism” offers a sharp take on how businesses move forward by acting boldly, even when the path is unclear.

All price references and market forecasts correspond to the date of this recording. This podcast should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced in whole or in part. The information contained in this podcast does not constitute research, recommendations, representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements of any information contained in this podcast and any liability from Zions Bancorporation, N.A or its divisions (including direct, indirect, or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. The views expressed in this podcast may not be those of Zions Bancorporation, N.A. or any of its divisions. Zions Bancorporation, N.A. is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice or recommendations in this podcast. In addition, the receipt of this podcast by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of advice, investment or otherwise, by Zions Bancorporation, N.A. to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of Zions Bancorporation, N.A. Copyright reserved by Zions Bancorporation, N.A. Nevada State Bank is a division of Zions Bancorporation, N.A. Member FDIC

Transcript

Hello, and welcome to Through the Door, the insider's perspective on running a business. I'm Megan Comfort, director of business banking for Nevada State Bank, and this is a podcast where we interview business owners, entrepreneurs, and business and community leaders, and get to learn from their stories and experiences running companies, and making big decisions that impact our communities.(...) If you are interested in subscribing to this podcast, you can subscribe anywhere where you listen to podcasts, or if you wanna see our beautiful faces, you can actually go into YouTube and see it live as well. Well, not live, it's prerecorded.

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But today, we have Jeremy Aguero here today. He is a managing partner of Applied Analysis. It's a premier economic and research firm in the state of Nevada, and honestly has done almost every major project that I can possibly think of throughout our state, and has made a huge impact(...) the time that they've been in business.

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So from Raider Stadium to the new broken ground, ACES Stadium, and so many other projects on the strip, and then also in Northern California, they have been involved in. They're also one of the partners that we work with on our small business survey. So we have our 2026 small business survey that we've released. This is our 13th year releasing the information on this. And I'm gonna steal something that Jeremy actually says. There's no better way to understand the direction of our economy or what economic cycle we're in than from hearing from our business owners and what they're seeing from their customers and their vendors as they're really experiencing it in real time. So we're gonna be doing more of a deep dive on this survey today with this episode, and just understanding a little bit more context behind some of the charts and the information that actually came out of this year's survey that was just released on April 2nd of this month. So thank you, Jeremy, for being here today. Hey, thanks for the invitation. Yes, so let's kind of dive in. I like to start with just, we have the six sections, right, of this survey where we talk about the economy,(...) Nevada, state specific, some of the impacts, the finance, and then workforce, and then outlook.(...) But there seems to be an overwhelming amount of optimism actually, you know, when the timing of when we did this survey, which was, when was that? Late in 2025. Okay, so late in 2025, people felt pretty good about the year that just kind of finished. And then even better about the year that they were going into. And we know that there's been some, obviously, economic uncertainty and changes that kind of happened in Q1. If that survey was taken today, do you think that that would be a little bit different? Well, look, I think you always have to, with all the uncertainty that we've seen, then look, you and I are talking about a war in Iran,(...) you know, and higher gasoline prices. And all of those things are affecting not only consumers, but businesses as well.(...) And so, yeah, do I think it would have an impact? Sure, it would affect some of the responses.(...) But I think what's really most compelling about the survey is even with uncertainty around things like tariffs and uncertainty in terms of geopolitical issues outside of just Iran, right? I mean, clearly there were other geopolitical challenges that were going on, that what business owners identified was optimism even within the challenge. And I think from that standpoint, it is relatively remarkable. So I guess to answer your question, do I think it would affect the survey? Of course, I think anything would potentially affect the survey and some of the things that we're seeing more so than other things.

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But do I believe it would change the conclusions? No, I don't. I do agree with you. I think even just entrepreneurial spirit, a lot of people are resilient and they're always gonna try to find the silver lining. I think about 2025, and I was surprised to see how many people still felt good about the year that they finished off, because I know that the tariff issue that happened in 2025 really was a big concern for a lot of small businesses and how it affected costs. And that kind of leans into some of the challenges that we see as far as businesses navigating through those top challenges of economic uncertainty being one,

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which I don't know if you can give any more context on. Obviously, the war in Iran is clearly one of those factors because that's happening right now. But why do you think that that was something that was really number one top of mind for most business owners? Do you think it was because of all of the political volatility that was happening in 2025 or the tariff issues that we were seeing, what was skyrocketing, and then all of a sudden, oh, there's a moratorium period where it's gonna calm down and then-- I think it's all of those things, right? I think it's all of the economic issues. I think it's all the consumer issues. Again, what's amazing is that the economy continues to move forward even with all of that. I don't think it's only geopolitical,(...) right? I think it, or just political generally. I mean, I think those are all part of it. I think it's economic. I think it's, hey, look, tariffs are up, tariffs are down. I don't know exactly what to expect. I think it's some of the labor-related challenges. Hey, I'm hiring people. They can do the job. They can't do the job. That uncertainty. Am I gonna have to have more training than I was gonna have to have before? I think it's even things like AI, right? How, what am I gonna adopt? Is my world gonna change? Is my company gonna change? Is it gonna be different next year than it was this year? Am I adopting it right? Am I doing the right things? And in some ways, people have had to address these issues, right? They've had to change prices. They've had to change the way they're hiring folks or how many people they're keeping. They've gotta start thinking about everything differently. And I think if you look at the difference between where we were a couple of years ago and what people were saying and where their concerns were, and we're now coming out of COVID at that point, and then you have this period in which, gosh, it seems like a lot of prosperity. We're sort of rebounding from all that. Now we're getting back to something that is normal. And let's not forget that during a lot of 2025, there was a lot of media out there about how Las Vegas was being hit, right? That our tourism was down, that we were pricing ourselves out of the market, that we were doing all these things. It was a tough year for Las Vegas. And while I think a lot of that was overblown, I think those business owners and operators, what they saw was that the landscape, everywhere I look, there's some degree of uncertainty. And they still found prosperity and they still found optimism, but everywhere they looked, there was something that was maybe not an immediate challenge, but something that seemed like it was always out on the horizon that could be a challenge.(...) Yeah, I think there was a lot of uneasiness, but still opportunity throughout the year when I look back. It's funny talking to business owners now, I'm constantly saying, I wish we just had a boring year. Like I wish there was just one year where there was like no issues and you just kind of hummed along, but it seems like ever since COVID, those times are gone and there's always going to be something new on the horizon or a challenge that we're gonna be facing on an annual basis almost. Well, Megan, it's interesting they say that.

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I'm quite a bit older than you. And so maybe the frame of experience is a little longer here, but you had September 11th, right? And I will never forget thinking to myself, well, this could be it. Like this is how our economy, like how are we gonna survive this? Nobody can get on a plane, right? We're Las Vegas, the whole thing. And thinking, okay, we got past that, right? And then we get to the great recession, right? And I mean, foreclosure crisis, all the things that we're dealing with, this community in particular, ground zero for the foreclosure crisis. And I never forget, I think I even said it in a presentation, like this is our Black Swan event. Like this is as bad as it can get, right? And then we hit COVID, right? And I promised myself, I am never, I'm never gonna say ever again, this is as bad as it can get. But the other side of that equation is that what we're seeing in today's world is that technology is evolving so fast. Innovation is evolving so fast, right? We think about the speed at which everything is changing.

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In some ways it's exhausting, in some ways it's exhilarating, right? Because with all of that change comes opportunity. And with all of the naysayers saying the world's gonna kind of come to an end economically or otherwise, none of that has come to fruition. As a matter of fact, even with all the challenges that we're dealing with, domestically and internationally, all the challenges we're dealing with, the economy is still at or near the highest level we've ever seen in the history of the United States, right? We're still employing all of these people, wages and salaries are continuing to go up. And again, you said at the beginning, I always love to say it, I think business owners and operators see that on the front line every single day. And I think that's what's coming through.(...) Yeah, but one thing that I do think about when you bring up 9-11 and then the Great Recession and COVID is there seem to be these just periods of time where there really wasn't this major issue. And doesn't it feel like it is getting a little bit truncated between events now?(...) Yeah, but this is the point I was trying to make, and I didn't do it very eloquently, so I'm glad you asked the question.(...) I think that the events were things that were completely outside of our control that seemed, they're definitely happening faster, there's no doubt about that. But I think now the events are not only the ones that are pulling our economy down, that are changing everything, that almost feel like shocks to the entire world, but now there are also innovations that are happening so fast. The way suppliers are doing things differently, the way customers are expecting to get things, the way they're behaving and acting, I think all of those things are also changing so quickly. So not only is it the fact that you have these kind of crazy world events that seem like, hey, gas prices were a dollar less like 30 days ago, like what happened? I had no expectation we were gonna move into a rant, like I didn't know that, and now it's the centerpiece of all we're doing. There's no doubt that that seems like it's happening more. And I think in Washington, D.C., we have to accept the fact, and I'm here to make no political commentary whatsoever, but I think we have to accept the fact that some of the conflict that's going on in Washington, D.C. makes us all feel that way a bit. But I also think that it's the other side of that, that uncertainty is also coming from the innovation that is in front of us every day. And I think both of those pieces are what is leading to that uncertainty.(...) Do you think that that has anything to do with, something that you've talked about in past presentations about consumer confidence being at an all-time low, however consumer spending is not, and usually those are kind of correlated with each other. When people don't feel good about where they're going to be in the next 12 months, they typically are not going out and spending like crazy, but it seems like everyone is doing the opposite. There's no doubt. I mean, consumer confidence is about as low as we've ever seen. And yet taxable retail spending in the state of Nevada is at its peak pretty close.

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And even with all the tourism numbers being lowered, seven, seven and a half percent down, gross gaming revenue, gaming spend, at the highest level we've ever seen in the state of Nevada's history. Billion dollar month over billion dollar month over billion dollar month, right? Now, obviously that leads me to have some concern because we're seeing debt rise. And what we don't want to do is have consumers finance, spending and vacations and those type of things. But we're also seeing incomes rise as a result of that. So that can be kind of a good thing as well as a bad thing. Now, there's this weird kind of thing happening where consumers are saying one thing and doing something else. And look, I believe that it's a different brand of consumers. I also think that we have social media, which has a tendency to bring things to people so fast that it can, and sometimes feed into some negativity that's out there. And I think that can create some uncertainty. I also think, Megan, that two trends are taking place right now. One, I think we're all more anxious about the world than we used to be. I think we're seeing it a lot. I think particularly among young people, we're seeing it a lot. And I get why. I understand that. And it takes a lot of those things to sort of, I think that feeling that's out there is very real relative to, gosh, I just don't feel like I'm settled today. And you combine that with the fact that you've got a population that is aging out and one that's aging in, both trying to kind of find their place in the world. And that means everything that we see and do is changing.

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Do you think that, and I've been wanting to ask you this question, the consumer spending level has anything to do with what they've talked about in the past of this K-shaped economy, and that this upper K is really what is bolstering the economy and the spending, and not necessarily the middle and below?

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Look, there is no doubt that that's taking place.(...) We have this group of folks that are aging out of the workforce.

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They are the wealthiest generation in the history of humanity.

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They account, baby boomers, what I'm talking about, they account for about 23% of the population and account for about 51% of all household wealth.

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There is no doubt, they've earned it. They're going to live as long as they can and live as good as they can. And they're gonna find, as one of them told me, they're all gonna go skiing, which I didn't know exactly what that meant. It's an odd scheme, means to spend the kids' inheritance, right? And so that's what they wanna do. There's gonna be-- Wow, that's an acronym. That's an acronym, yes. Oh my God. And they're going to use that to go out and do those type of things, right? But at the same time, here's a statistic that I think most people miss. If we look at Gen X and millennials today,

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and we look at where they are versus where their parents or their grandparents were at the same age, they are roughly on track or ahead of where their parents or grandparents were at the same age even today relative to household wealth and how they're doing.(...) So, look, I mean, a lot of that happened later in life as they had assets and those assets grew,

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but they're not the only ones we're seeing spend. Even here in Las Vegas, where we have this wonderful, sort of, I like this analogy, like a Petri dish of consumption, right? Everybody comes from all over the world, right? And they wanna spend stuff in Las Vegas. We're not just seeing it. Baby boomers, now they spend their money differently, but if we look at millennials or Gen Z or Gen X or any of them, right, we see that they spend money when they come to Las Vegas. Some of it's more on entertainment, some of it's more on food, some of it's more on gaming, but they're spending money in different ways. Now, are there people that are being left behind? You're absolutely right, there are, right? We know that the American dream is a bit more difficult for people to obtain today. The cost of housing is higher. Things are more expensive, and I think that is what's putting that downward pressure on consumer confidence, and frankly, you know, $5 a gallon gasoline isn't gonna make it any easier. That having been said, if we look at how people are just sort of doing overall today, right? I,(...) there's no doubt that there's asymmetry in that, but there's also a lot of prosperity, and there's still a lot of opportunity that exists today. And I think as we really look for those type of things, even though there are some challenges that households and businesses are facing, I think the opportunities that are in front of them are remarkable, and from that standpoint, when we talk to those businesses, when we talk about this survey, what is always amazing, and for 13 years, they have been correct, 13 years, every year, what they tell us is going to happen has happened. It has been absolutely unbelievable,(...) but what they're able to do is see past some of the challenges that we're talking about today. Well, gas prices seem high, that must cause this. Well, yes, but, but those consumers are still gonna consume, and they're still gonna find ways. And yeah, maybe younger folks are gonna live together for a little bit longer. Maybe they're gonna do things a little bit different. But you know what, I did things differently than my parents did. I'm sure I did things way differently than my grandparents did. And I think every generation wants to look at the generation below and go, those guys are crazy, right? That TV is gonna melt their mind, that internet, whatever, and yet they find a way forward. And I think it's that optimism that is so incredible in the United States today. I know, I'm trying not to be that old person that talks crap about trash about the younger generation, because I understand what you're saying from that perspective.

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Let's kind of switch gears. Actually, I have one more question about the national economy since I have you.

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Do you foresee if this gas price is kind of, like the prices stay at a higher level for an extended period of time? This is a two-part question. What amount of time do you think would be worrisome? Because you've talked about a billion dollars is spent on gas for the state of Nevada. No, no, a billion dollars, a billion gallons of gasoline, which means it goes up by one dollar, correct. Then a billion dollars gets sucked out of the economy. And then obviously continued rising gas prices, or just that being steady for a longer period of time could be very concerning. Do you think that that could be something that could move us into a recession? 100%. Look, I don't think there's any doubt the sustained long-term cost of energy can go up because it's not just what we pay at the pump, it's gonna be what we pay for everything, particularly in a state like Nevada, because we import almost every single thing that we consume. Now you asked a very straightforward question. If it's two or three months, I could care less, right? If it's six months, nine months, six months, I'm worried, nine months, I'm very worried, 12 months, I think we got a problem, right? Now, the other part is I think we also have to take the increase with a grain of salt. I think a lot of folks may not know that even as much as gas prices have gone up today, they're still lower than they were when we went into the Ukraine crisis by a fairly significant margin. And if we adjust it for a number of years over the past decade, over the past two decades, and we adjust those years for inflation and we bring them all up to 20, $26, there are a number of years where peak gas prices have been above where they were in April of 2026, right now, even with that, right? So yes, they seem high. Yes, we're concerned, but there's other things. Number one, inflation obviously is something we gotta talk about. Let's also remember that the average vehicle gets a lot more miles per gallon than it did in 2000 or 1990 or 1980, which means that I can go further on $5 of gasoline than I could, excuse me, $5 a gallon gasoline for every gallon that I consume, than I could 10 years or 20 years or 30 years ago. And so the impact is a little bit muted. Now, we're seeing it in our tourism-based economy, right? Drive-in traffic from California, that's certainly a concern, as well as we're seeing it in higher airline prices. And that's obviously a concern for us as well. So I'm concerned about not so much because of the folks that are putting, the filling their tank up with gas. That's a concern, it's part of it. I'm really concerned because it has upward pressure on inflation and last month, even though the price of gasoline went up almost very significantly, let's just call it that, core inflation, which is takes out energy and food, was only up two-tenths of 1%, which suggests to us that the other elements of inflation may be cooling a little bit. And so if this is short-lived, I'd love to see that. Yeah, I would love to see that too, because I am concerned over elongated timeframes. And the only reason is because I know that it's all relative and I like that you kind of go back in time and talk about how, is this really as big of an impact, right? When you look through kind of throughout history, but I think when you give someone something and give them like excess dollars and now some of that excess dollars is stripped away from them because they have to spend it on gas, it still just creates a different type of dynamic for that consumer. I think it does too.

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But I think we have to give consumers and households a lot of credit. I mean, look at all the things they've had to deal with.

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All the things we've already talked about, all the things, households, and you know what? They all figure it out. They figure it out and they find their way through it and they make some changes and maybe some substitute goods and I don't know, households, maybe they're gonna buy an electric car next time and they'll have one electric car and one gas car and then they mute the impacts even further. I think the creativity and ingenuity of households getting themselves through COVID, figuring all this stuff out, helping their kids today in a period that feels very uncertain, right? Households will find a way through and I think in the state of Nevada, right? We help each other along those lines. I don't care whether it's Republicans or Democrats, they're finding ways to try and reduce cost for households. I think many of the businesses we're talking about are trying to find ways to deliver value. I mean, so much of what we saw in the survey in terms of things I want to do, what changes, what are the things that I need to do are really about the fact that I can gain efficiency and it's not just efficiency to rise so that you're making more money. I mean, obviously that's important but also driving and being able to deliver value to consumers because that's what they want today. Yeah, business owners seem a lot more receptive to adapting and evolving with the times very quickly. In the past, I feel like there were a lot more people that needed more time to kind of make decisions and they were a little bit slower to respond to certain changes in the market. Now it seems like people are really diving in and just going for it and making a lot of changes and learning things very rapidly to be able to take advantage of some of the new technology. Yeah, look, I love the fact that you brought up the technology toward the end but I think in today's world, it's not big fish and small fish, it's fast fish and slow fish, right? That's who's going to eat the other one, right? And look, I mean, let's not forget that 95% plus of all businesses are small businesses, right? If you're not agile, right, I mean, you know, if you can't adapt, you're not going to survive.(...) And I think that survival instinct is what makes it so great,(...) that level of innovation. The last piece you brought up was that technology component, right? I mean, we think back 20, 30 years ago, right, the advent of, you know, having a computer on your desk or having the internet there for you becomes wide. I mean, we imagine what our world would be like without that today and all the things that it allows us to do, right? I, you know, our good friend, Dallas Holland, always talks about this idea of balancing technology and touch and I always, I use that, I don't know, I mean, all the time because I think it's such a beautiful way to think about how you need to bring things out to consumers. And I think when you look at businesses and you think about how they're doing that, why? Why do they have to adapt? Because they have no choice, right? And they are going to find a way to do it better. And if they can gain more efficiency and look, and I think also in a sort of a post-COVID environment, we're asking everybody to do two people's jobs. I think these small businesses are, you know, they're working 80 hours a week. I mean, some of the folks that we talk to, it is unbelievable the amount of time and the dedication that they put in. And hell, if something like AI can save them four hours a week and that's four more hours they can spend with their family or they can go to the gym or do whatever else they want to do, yeah, I think that adaptation is something that they're absolutely going to follow up on. Yeah, I mean, I personally use AI. I like learning new things. I like figuring out, honestly, I think it's really amazing, like what AI can actually do. I actually used it yesterday, and it's funny that you bring up the topic of Dallas talking about technology in touch because that's something that is right on the vein of Nevada State Bank and what we really try to strive for with technology and personal touch, right? Making sure that there's still the human behind that technology and that it's useful from that perspective, but that also there's still that human aspect of our business.(...) But I used it to try and give me the key elements of a new SBA program that came out for manufacturers, the MARC program, and I said, "Hey, can you give me, here's the new program. Just give me the key points of what I would need to know for business owners on this program," because it was like 20 pages and I just wanted to see what it would spit out. And luckily, I had already perused through it, but it told me that the max revolving period was five years or something, and I remember seeing, I was like, "I thought it was 10 years," so I said, "Hey, I thought it was a 10 year revolving period, not five." And it was like, "Oh, you're absolutely right. That is correct." And it's just weird how it,(...) if I took it at face value, and that's kind of what I worry a little bit about with AI, is if you take it at face value and you just let it think for you, it can be very dangerous, because it can actually say something so convincing that appears accurate, but really isn't. And so finding that balance for me with the use of some of that technology sometimes is just concerning.

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Yeah, look, I don't think there's any doubt about that. Even talking to clients, I know when clients are using AI, and I'm like, "I don't want to use AI to talk back to you." So I'm like-- Yeah, look, you know, look, AI needs to be a tool, not a crutch. As soon as it becomes a crutch, you've abdicated your ability to think to a machine. And I think that is wildly problematic, right? I think you and I benefit from years of experience where we didn't have it. So reading something is not difficult or having enough intuition relative to saying, "That just doesn't feel right to me. "I think we need to go in and make that change." Right, I have no doubt that AI is going to be transformative. I think it already is. Do I believe that AI is going to replace a doctor, a CEO, or a manager, or somebody? I'm like, "No, I don't." But I think one that uses AI is gonna replace one that doesn't, because they'll have the ability to increase their productivity. It will make them better at what they do. And I think when we talk to businesses, that's exactly what they are able to do. You know, in my own office, right, we have every single person in our office has a AI research and development(...) assignment responsibility. And this has really helped us do two things. Number one, explore everything that is possible relative to AI. And we've learned a great number of things, but it also gives my team the remarkable ability to see what it can do and what it cannot do. And that has been a really important set of lessons for my team.

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Did you establish any type of controls or things that you imposed on your team to just be like, "Hey, don't let it think for you"? Like, what are just some of your golden principles, if you will, around that? Yeah, I mean, the golden rule for us relative to that is that you are 100% responsible

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for your deliverable to your project manager and ultimately to the client. It was a little easier from an adaptation standpoint for us, from our standpoint, because we also had a rule that if you came into my office and said, "The reason that's in this report is," because that's what it said on the internet, was a fireable offense in my office. And I hate to say it that way. It sounds very draconian, but that is 100% unacceptable, right? We do research. You have to be able to go to the source. You have to be able to find the source to be able to get that done. And so because that was the ethos that underlied so much of what we did, it wasn't that hard. But I also take moments with my staff to have conversations about a number of things. And one, we had AI, and this is probably going back three years ago now, two and a half years ago now. And I asked everybody in my office, "Hey, who's using AI?" The very first time I brought it up, and I probably should have brought it up earlier, said, "Hey, who's using it? "I think we have to have a conversation about this." And it was remarkable. Everybody put up their hands except two people in my office, two youngest analysts that we had, which was really surprising to me. Both of them thought it was cheating to be able to use it. And so having that conversation with them became remarkably important. Then the generation, I'm not talking about 20-year generations, but the folks that were kind of in front of them a little bit were really hesitant. Do you talk to other people, because that's really important in our office, the collaboration, do you talk to other people? And they hadn't really talked to each other about it, because they thought it was cheating too, but maybe they were getting away with something. And they didn't really know what it was, and they kind of felt, "Am I supposed to be using this? "Am I not supposed to be using this?" And then we had a generation in front of them, they're really scared about AI. They felt like, "Gosh, I don't understand this. "Is it gonna take my job? "Is it gonna be something along those lines?" And then the final, the oldest group in my office was like, "What is AI?"(...) I mean, that kind of dialogue. And so what I found was having that conversation with every one of those groups was just so important to letting them know what our expectations were, giving them the freedom to be creative and learn from what was out there. And some of the things that even like interns in our office have come up with using this, I mean, one guy created like an avatar of himself, connected it to the Federal Reserve's information base so you could ask him a question, and he would answer it using all the Federal Reserve's information. That was an intern in my office. He was genius, I grant him that. But it was absolutely fantastic. I thought, "This young man, this is so cool." What he did, now it wasn't perfect. It would make mistakes just like you talked about before. But that level of innovation is just remarkable to me. But I think it also creates a lot of risk. It creates risk in things like fraud, it creates risk in things like deepfakes. I mean, obviously the banking industry is dealing with this really important ways, but I don't know about you, but I get these emails like every single day. My whole team gets these phishing emails or whatever, every single day. And so we have to take the good with the bad. But educating folks and empowering them to get the power of it, I think is critical. And again, going back to the survey for a moment, what you and I both saw, and I think we both took away from other conversations that we've had, is the companies that are adopting it and adapting to it are not only growing tremendously over what we just saw a couple of years ago, but they're already reporting better financial performance than those that are not using that AI today. And that, I think is why you've got a big piece of that optimism that's driving so much of what we saw from those businesses. Well, yeah, and what I like is that the data didn't represent that there was this significant amount of job loss around AI. I think that has been another big fear for individuals is that their job is gonna go away. And I'm sure, I've heard you talk in other presentations and we've even had this discussion that there will be jobs that most likely are no longer around because of AI, but it doesn't necessarily mean that you are not going to have employment. It just means that the employment will most likely adjust or change or your skill sets will need to adjust and change and you'll be doing something else. Just like within any major technology that's come out. Look, I think it's gonna be more disruptive than other technologies we have. I think it's gonna be displacing that. I am very much a free market kind of person.(...) And I always have been. So I believe that when a new technology comes in, if it displaces employees, that's the healthy part of that process.

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I do believe with what we talked about before, and I think the way you said it earlier was really quite insightful,

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that with the speed at which innovation is taking place, that we're going to have to be a little bit more mindful of that than we have been in the past. I also feel for the first time in a long time, and again, we saw some of this from the survey. For the first time, I think at any point in history, we're seeing that college graduates have a higher unemployment rate than the overall unemployment rate. They're having a hard time finding that job. I think we're going to have to help with some of that to create that, because I think getting that first five years of experience, we just talked about, right? You and I have this body of work that we've done before AI existed, right? I mean, look, I mean, for growing up for me, technology was like, I had a Tandy 64 computer that I sat down and tried to program. I did it all day long, and I hit run, and it said, you don't have enough memory to run this thing. I mean, like ridiculous, right? I mean, the technology will grow. Black and white TVs I had growing up, those type of things, right? The fact that we had to grow up and grow in to all of this technology, I feel like we're living right now in a magical, magical moment where all of this retained earnings that we've had in living in a world without it is now paying benefits, dividends, in terms of living in a world with it. But now we've got this generation of folks that is just coming up. I have a few folks in my office, as a matter of fact, I was talking with a young lady before, and we were just having a mentoring session, that kind of a thing, and I said, it's gotta be very difficult. You're now in the workforce.(...) This thing is changing the landscape of the workforce, and you went through college when it didn't even exist, right? And she's like, yeah, it makes it kind of hard, it makes it kind of scary. And so I think we're gonna have to have a little bit of patience and a little bit of grace, and I think business owners and some of the things, again, that we saw as more training at the individual company level. We're gonna have to be ready for that, and we're gonna have to be a little, like I said, patient with some of these young people to be able to get them that five years worth of experience that gives them that base of knowledge. And if we're not having that communication(...) with our employees about that, I think we're doing them a disservice, and I think we're putting ourselves at risk. I think it's about not having some hard conversations with like your kids. You have to be able to have some of those so that it doesn't go unsaid. And something that's cool about AI, it kind of comes to mind, because you talk about training,(...) is AI is very useful in developing training programs for employees and really helping skill up workers to be able to perform some of the duties that you need, and be almost like a bot that they can talk to in real time to get procedural content and different things that they might need to be able to perform their role. I think of a Tacotarian, which is a restaurant here, in Las Vegas, and they have multiple locations, and they've actually deployed AI for their training modules, and kind of how they, like onboard employees, and then also ongoing training and skill sets so that their speed to getting up to par with what they need to perform in their role is faster than if they had to have somebody right next to them watching their remove and explaining to them and being available to ask questions and answer them and things like that. So I do agree. You've mentioned before that this is gonna be disruptive to the point where you think unemployment will be maybe at like 20% or something significant, and that we are going to have to figure out as a community, as a nation, what we're gonna be doing to help those folks and figure out how we're gonna be living in a new era where unemployment might be that high. And I think that's exactly what's going to happen, but let me tell you why I remain so optimistic,(...) because the world is nine billion people.(...) And I think one of the best commercials I've seen in a really long time is the one that talks about it's never been a worst time to be a problem. We can solve problems in this world better than we have ever been able to do before. And if you think about all of those societies outside of the United States, that we can help elevate and grow and have their economies prosper as a result of that because of the technology that's gonna be out there, food, water, safety, some of those things that are going to exist. I think the amount of potential prosperity around the globe is gonna be beyond anything we could ever imagine today and allowing folks to have that type of living standard. I mean, we're so spoiled, feels like the wrong word, blessed, in the United States today in terms of that living. Is there gonna be some instability for us? You're darn right there is. And is it gonna be uncomfortable? Yes, and are we going to have to work together to make sure that we find some balance relative to that? Absolutely. But the potential of being able to deploy technology that can change the world and lift people up,

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we're at the absolute infancy of what is going to be possible in terms of delivering a quality of life to people around the globe that I think is gonna be unbelievable. And I think that is where the prosperity is really gonna come from.

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So I wanna touch on parts of the survey relative to Nevada because we kind of skipped and went into the AI discussion, which was good because that was part of the impact section of the survey and just talking about how businesses are really deploying it to, honestly, to your points, fast fish or slow fish, right? And them being able to compete with some of the bigger competitors too in the marketplace and stay relevant. But Nevada continues to be a really good place to do business and there's a high level of optimism among business owners about doing business in the state of Nevada and the resources that we have.(...) What would you attribute that to? Or if Nevada had a report card, if you will, right? Because we have our global economic alliance and we're trying to attract and diversify different industries to come in.

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Give us some insight into how that state report card looks.

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Well, look, I think overall from the leadership of the state all the way down,

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Nevada's open for business. I think Nevada State Bank, our governor, our county commission,(...) they all want to find a way to say yes, we wanna figure out a way to help you do that thing that you want to do as a business.

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From that standpoint, I would put Nevada up against anybody anywhere at any time.

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The idea,(...) look, I hate to say it this way, but there's also a comparability standpoint, right? There are other states, including the state of California, which does many things right, which have made it really difficult for some businesses or some business owners to be successful.(...) And I think the fact that the state of Nevada has not done some of those things also creates an economic environment that is so great where a business owner or operator has the ability to retain or reinvest more of what they earn. And I think the state of Nevada has benefited tremendously from that.

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And look, there have been a lot of folks, including some of the ones that we talked about before that have ranked Nevada relatively high as a great place to do business. We're the top 10 in almost every major survey that's out there to start, do business, those type of things. And I think it's because of all those things. And look, I would be remiss if I didn't talk about the fact that we have some lower tax rates, right? Some of the affordability issues are more here.

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But we don't get A's in everything. And I think it's important to mention that we have real challenges, right? I am so excited about some of the changes that we're seeing in education, particularly public education. Obviously, there's lots of different variants of education. We're seeing graduation rates go up in Clark County. We're seeing test scores in almost every cohort go up in Clark County. We're seeing star ratings in our public schools, which is how we rate the schools from one really bad to five the best you could be. Schools, we've seen all kinds of schools move up on that star rating. We're actually funding schools at a higher level. We have a pipeline of teachers. We had all kinds of vacancies and all kinds of

(...)

long-term substitutes taking over schools. We don't have that in Clark County anymore. And it's paying dividends for us. And I think our school teachers have really stepped up. Our public and private school teachers and charter school teachers have also kind of stepped up. But we still have challenges with regard to education, right? We still need more of our kids to be graduating. They need to be more prepared than they are today. And I think we have to ask ourselves a question. Why is the model for public education

(...)

the same as it was 150 years ago, right? I think some of that needs to change. I think it will change, but it's gonna take some time. I'm also a card-carrying member of the Superintendent Joan Ebert Fan Club. I think she's just unbelievably amazing and the right woman in the right place at the right time. And so I'm really glad the school board had the wisdom to put her in that place. But education is something that we haven't always been good at. We're not great at yet, we're going in that direction, but it's gonna take some years to get there. We've gotta get better at that. We've gotta make sure more of those kids are prepared to enter an uncertain workforce. We've got other issues, we've got water issues. I think we've got some cost of living issues that continue to be high. Now, we're not as high as California, thank goodness, but it doesn't mean that things are cheap here. It doesn't mean that someone can just step in and get a house that's harder today than it has been. And I think those are things that we need to work on as a community to make sure that the opportunities that existed for us are gonna exist for that next generation. So overall, I think the landscape is remarkable for businesses. If you want to be successful, Nevada is the place you wanna be. But we have real challenges, and I think it's incumbent on all of us to find a way where we can help.

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I heard Danielle Casey speak actually last week at a Leadership Las Vegas event, and she was talking about some of the things that we're doing as a state, or as in Southern Nevada, to really kind of attract different types of businesses and just have real discussions around(...) their responsibility for workforce development, just like us, if they were to relocate here and things like that.

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It's very interesting to actually hear

(...)

how an organization goes about trying to attract new industries coming in and how important that is to kind of diversify our economy. Yeah, look, I mean, we've been trying to diversify our economy forever. We've done a better job at it, and just in case anybody doesn't know, Danielle's the CEO of Las Vegas Global Economic Alliance. I mean, the woman just kind of oozes economic development, doesn't she? I mean, she just sort of knows it, she gets it, she knows all the players, this is what we're trying to do, and she just leaves you with such confidence that this is the direction we need to go, get on board, let's go get it done,

(...)

which I think is awesome in terms of that.

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I'm always worried about economic development and diversification, and I think that they're two different things. We think about economic diversification as bringing in new industries, those type of things that are gonna grow.(...) When I think about economic development, it is the opportunity for the businesses that are here today to be able to grow and develop.

(...)

My sense is that the focus right now needs to be on the businesses that are here. If we have opportunities for new business to be here, that's awesome, we oughta welcome them, we oughta find ways for them to fit and turn out to our ecosystem, but I'm a little concerned about sort of the tension around growth, right? We have water concerns, right? And those are limited, we have space concerns, some of those type of things in terms of land.

(...)

We need to make sure that everything that we do is additive to our community. I don't know that it always has been that way. We have a lot of remarkable businesses, I think you look at businesses like Switch, which grew just completely organically and look at what they've become. I think you have businesses like the UFC that have taken something that was almost non-existent to something that's just a juggernaut around the entire world and just amazing to what they've become. I love to see that type of thing in fostering it and growing it, but every one of those businesses have found a way to be additive to our community, and I think that's what's really critically important.

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What resources do you think are important for businesses to know about that might be here and looking for some type of development opportunities or assistance from the small business perspective? Because that's, I think kind of a problem that we have is that they're busy running their business, so sometimes they don't always know of what resources or where to go for those resources. Yeah, look, I mean, there's a lot of them that we can point to.

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I've been so impressed with the Governor's Office of Economic Development and the things that they're doing, including sort of their Office of Entrepreneurship and providing connections and helping people navigate things.

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But there are chambers of commerce in particular, the Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce, what Mary Beth is doing there and her entire team. I mean, just remarkable advocacy and being able to create connections for businesses that are remarkable. I think I would be leaving it out if I didn't talk about our Henderson Chamber of Commerce. Obviously, there's other chambers that are out there, but what Scott's doing over there has really sort of grown and developed that as well for organizations that are looking for something that's a little bit more localized to what they're doing. But then I think you also have other chambers. I think about the Urban Chamber and what Peter Guzman is doing over at the Latin Chamber of Commerce. You wanna talk about folks that are just creating opportunity for business.

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So some of them are resource-driven, things like GoEd. Others of them are connection-driven. And I don't know about you, but so often, what I find is if I'm having a challenge in my business, the ability to pick up the phone and have a conversation with someone,

(...)

to say, "Hey, I'm running into this problem. "How did you solve that problem?" Or, "Do you know someone that went through this before?" It's been incredibly important. And I think those connections that are created by chambers are critical.

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Yeah, I think people downplay kind of, especially ones that have never actually experienced going to an event or actually tapping into some of the chamber resources,

(...)

they don't realize how useful and helpful it can actually be. I have participated in their EDGE program and some of the business resource stuff that the Las Vegas Chamber does. And it is amazing to see new members come in and honestly are like, "Why didn't I do this 10, 15 years ago "when I first started my business?" I didn't realize that there was all of this that I could have at my fingertips and this connection and network. And Las Vegas is built on connections. So although it is becoming this big city, you're still two degrees of separation from almost anybody that's been here for any significant amount of time. And the ability to get things done, being a small state, right? You have a good idea, there's somebody that wants to help you go get it done. And some of the new things that we've seen, like what Lynn Jessup is doing with the Venture Fund, Capital Fund, some of the innovation that's coming out of UNLV these days is just remarkable, right? These are partnerships, public-private partnerships that are making things happen in our community. We're seeing it in healthcare, we're seeing it in technology.

(...)

We're just seeing innovation everywhere.(...) And it's like you said, you're two degrees of separation from somebody else that wants to get it done. I mean, I've only been to one or two of these technology-oriented meetups, but every time I go to one of those, I sit around and say, "These people are just unbelievably smart." And the things that they're working on are incredible. I have the honor of chairing UNLV's Innovation Foundation, and we're just sort of ramping up from the research foundation element. But the things that I've learned about what some of these folks are doing in our community is just amazing. Again, we're just at the edge of those. I don't know which one is gonna be the next switch. I don't know which one's gonna be the next UFC, but I guarantee you 20 years from now, we're gonna look back and say, "That's the one."

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When I spoke with Governor Lombardo in our last episode that we released, we were talking about just the growth in population that we've seen. Like, I moved here in 2003, and I think the population was around 600,000. And then fast-forward 23 years, our population is, where is it, close to three? About 2.4 million? Yep, 2.4 million,(...) which is a significant amount of folks to come into the state of Nevada, or into Las Vegas. Yeah, we got over a million a little quicker than that, so there's a few more people that are here. But pound for pound, we've been among the fastest-growing areas anywhere in the United States during that period. And it's been amazing in terms of what we've seen. I mean, just think about the landscape, how much different it is between when you moved and where you are today. I know, I feel like, well, I mean, this is the longest place I've ever lived, but it is amazing to see how quickly, I'm so used to thinking this is how cities grow, because I've been here for 23 years, and then I go back to my hometown, and I'm like, wow, nothing has changed. Everything's the same, that's miraculous, because here in Las Vegas, I feel like it doesn't matter if you've been gone only a couple of years, when people come back, they're just so shocked and surprised at just how it's evolved, and how much more expansion and growth has kind of happened.

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Something that has been brought up by other folks that are coming in, because every year we have new folks coming in. I remember thinking of a stat that you had said before, where you said almost 40% of the population is fairly new to Las Vegas. So if you have been a local business for any period of time, they probably don't know who you are, right? Because this is somewhat of a transient town still, where people are coming and going.

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Is part of the appeal here the fact that we don't have any state income tax, and is there a fear that that's ever going to be in place, because that is something that attracts people to the state of Nevada, especially our neighboring states?

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But that's another thing that I think a lot of folks don't truly understand. Can you kind of elaborate on how that works? Sure, so there is a prohibition(...) in our state's constitution against the personal income tax. And so could it change? Yes, but it would require two votes of the people in order to get that done. And there's a couple of other ways you get it done, but you can't take the people out of it altogether.

(...)

The likelihood of that happening is approaching zero.

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Could it happen? I guess anything is possible, but it is really, really unlikely. And look, I mean, so many of the people that moved here did so so that they could keep that money in their pocket. Now, there's other ways in which we tax here in the state of Nevada, and we have this amazing tourism industry that allows us to export at least some of our tax burden that we all benefit from tremendously.

(...)

But Megan, I gotta tell you, the fact that so much of the prosperity that we have had here is because our tax system is pro-business, pro-taxpayer.(...) And I think the chances of that changing are limited. Now, I think there are gonna be some conversations about taxes in legislative sessions that are upcoming.

(...)

You know, our economy has changed, right? We have a retail sales and use tax system that was designed in 1955,(...) right? And the world doesn't look the same way, right? I mean, you think about how we used to buy a bunch of things that were goods, right? Like my grandmother and I used to play Scrabble together. And I loved it because she had the board, just to be clear that lady would never let me win even one time, right? And I loved her to death for it, right? And now I try to do the same thing, but I play like Words with Friends with my kids. We just do it digitally. They're older and they're outside, and it's easier for us to connect that way when they're not in the state of Nevada. But that's a digital good. It's not subject to retail sales and use tax, but if I go buy, the other piece it is. We need to modernize our tax system. So I think you're gonna hear about those type of things coming forward. But I think the idea that you're gonna create like a personal income tax, very, very unlikely in the state of Nevada. Okay, I know a lot of listeners are probably gonna be very happy about that.

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I know I am.

(...)

Outside of all the things that we kind of talked about with this survey, and it's nice to see that business owners are feeling pretty positive about the overall trajectory of where we're kind of headed as a state and then also as just a national economy.(...) So that kind of gives me a level of optimism that things are gonna continue to develop, and it looks like people are looking to grow as well. If there was one thing that you would want someone to take away from this survey, what would that be?

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Look, I think as much as anything else is that there are always opportunities,(...) right? For the past 13 years, even when things seemed dark or difficult or very uncertain,

(...)

business owners find a way.(...) And they cultivate optimism, they weaponize optimism. And maybe that creates innovation.

(...)

Maybe it is a drive for survival. I don't know exactly what that is. But I think what we have learned more than anything else and what I suggest that people take away is that in every market, there is a pathway forward and opportunity. And I think with a little bit of resilience, a little bit of resourcefulness, and one hell of a lot of hard work, what businesses in Nevada have shown is that that opportunity continues to move us forward.

(...)

Well, thank you, Jeremy, for being here and talking about the small business survey that was just recently released in 2026. You can actually download a copy digitally if you're interested in viewing it on nsbank.com slash survey. So make sure to get your copy today. Thank you and have a great day.