Katja reads to you
Katja Grace reads other people's stuff out loud. This is not meant to be public. If you aren't friends with Katja, it probably isn't for you.
Katja reads to you
Situational Awareness: 1. From GPT-4 to AGI: Counting the OOMs1 (Part A)
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Katja Grace
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Season 1
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Episode 2
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AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible. GPT-2 to GPT-4 took us from ~preschooler to ~smart high-schooler abilities in 4 years. Tracing trendlines in compute (~0.5 orders of magnitude or OOMs/year), algorithmic efficiencies (~0.5 OOMs/year), and “unhobbling” gains (from chatbot to agent), we should expect another preschooler-to-high-schooler-sized qualitative jump by 2027.