Checking In On Our Market Projections: Bitcoin, Real Estate & Gold Prices!!

The markets have been on a wild ride since the presidential election, and we're taking a moment to check in on how our predictions have played out over the past six months. Remember when we projected gold would see an immediate dip after the election before continuing its climb toward $3,200? Well, that initial prediction was spot on – gold dropped about $200 per ounce that first week – but then it dramatically outperformed expectations, recently flirting with $3,500 before settling around $3,392. The precious metal has established a strong floor between $2,900 and $3,200, suggesting substantial staying power despite potential volatility ahead.

Our Bitcoin forecast proved remarkably accurate. From its election night price of $76,000, Bitcoin surged past $100,000 by early December – exactly as predicted – before experiencing the volatility we warned about, dropping to $77,000 in early April. Now trading around $96,600, Bitcoin has delivered an impressive 29% return over six months. For those with the stomach to ride the cryptocurrency roller coaster, we expect Bitcoin to finish 2025 above $90,000, potentially touching $120,000-$125,000 during the year. Meanwhile, the Dow Industrial Average has essentially treaded water, currently at 41,142 compared to 41,800 on election night, after following the typical post-election pattern of an initial surge followed by a new-year dip.

The real opportunity lies in recognizing that market chaos creates openings for strategic investors. When buyers and sellers are fearful but you maintain a fundamental calmness based on tested strategies, you can capitalize while others hesitate. This is especially true in real estate, where focusing on cash flow rather than property valuations provides protection against market swings. Remember that markets always recover – just as they did after 2008 when experts claimed the Dow would never break 10,000 again. We're excited to bring you interview-focused episodes throughout May, featuring discussions on personality profiling, book showcases, and more. Subscribe on your favorite platform to join us for these conversations and continue navigating these fascinating market developments together.

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Transcript

Welcome and Channel Updates

Speaker 1 0:00

All right, guys. Thank you so much and welcome. This is Stephan Piscano with the Stephan Piscano podcast. Happy belated Cinco de Mayo, guys. We are into May and I just can't believe how fast this year is going by. We're almost halfway into 2025.

Speaker 1 0:20

As always, if you have not subscribed yet, this is a great month for you to do so. They either join us on Spotify or Apple podcast or, of course, youtube, where you can find us at at Stefan Piscano, which I'm putting most of my sports stuff up on that YouTube channel and just try not to mix the two. And then if you want more of our traditional stuff, where we're talking about real estate investment strategies from a high level perspective gold prices, precious metals in general, even some crypto and just motivational entrepreneurial stuff then you'd want to go to at Vacation Wealth Partners. And then for all of my savvy investors in my networks I know there's several, thankfully, that are more interested in the meat and potatoes we do showcase actual partnership opportunities on that channel as well. You see some of the luxury vacation rentals that Vacation Wealth Partners is investing in and even how you can partner with us. So grateful for everybody that takes the time to do that. It is free, it is quick and it means a lot. So thank you sincerely for your partnership and all you do there.

Speaker 1 1:27

I just wanted to do a quick little showcase for what we've got coming up in May, because I'm gonna call this interview month. Every episode you're gonna see unless there's some surprise thing that happens in the markets or precious metals, sports, whatever that I pop on and do a quick one for Every full-length episode you're going to see this month is going to be an interview with some very exciting, talented people. Next week we're going to have a showcase of a book, the first author showcase that we've done. That's a fun one looking at the history of the young James Bond. The book is called the Young James Bondsman. Good friend of mine that I've known for almost 20 years wrote that, so I was excited to have him on. And then last week I just recorded a great episode that I'm really excited about with a real close friend and partner of mine. That talks about personality profiling using the DISC system and we spent about two and a half hours just really walking through how you as a salesperson if you're a realtor, listening to this, even as an investor, trying to get a deal done how you can know more about your own personality type, use that to your benefit and how you can learn about other people's personality types and use that to help get a deal accomplished as well, or just better your relationships personally. So thank you guys so much Again.

Gold Market Analysis Post-Election

Speaker 1 2:48

This is a quick little hello episode, just a little check-in, so I'm really not going to edit this one much, if at all. I just missed you guys, like always. So I wanted to check in. We're now more than 100 days into Trump's presidency. We did an election night special before we knew the results, where we made our projections for what we thought would happen in some of the main categories. I'll put a link to where you can go back and listen to that episode and you can compare how we did with how your predictions penciled out. And then we're going to just do a little check in here now about six months actually more than six months now, six months and one day after the election and after we made those projections, we're going to see what we said we thought would happen in each category, what's actually happened and then maybe a little idea of what we believe might happen moving forward so you can see on the screen here I'm going to start with gold, just because it's probably the one that I followed the closest and been the most invested in from an emotional standpoint, obviously, from a tangible standpoint, I'm invested in real estate and I have very little gold. But back on election, this chart's actually only going back six months, so we need that extra day because that's important. Six months. So we need that extra day because that's important.

Speaker 1 4:06

So we go back to November 4th. We had gold at 2746 an ounce going into the election. At that time we told you that we thought if Trump won that what would be most likely to happen is you'd see an immediate dip. There would still be some rapid inflation that would need to take place, so we thought it would continue to ultimately rise but probably would level off quite a bit. So this is what I'm going to say that even though we've been bullish on gold for years, I've done countless webinars and podcast episodes talking about precious metals and I was telling everybody.

Speaker 1 4:48

We looked at the historical data going all the way back to the 1940s and mainly we focused on the rapid inflation period that we saw from 1976 to 1980. We told you in October, we told you last November on election night and we've told you every episode pretty much we've talked about it since that if we modeled the same historical data and looked at what we saw happen in 1976 to 1980, where gold went up about 400% over that four-year period and really had a huge boom in an 18-month period 79, going into 81, we told you that gold would end up at about $3,200 an ounce. So I'm going to say on this one we were both right and wrong, because we were correct. You can see, right after the election, just as we projected, we saw a massive $200 roughly announced drop in that first week. But then, however, we huddled around $2,600, $2,700 going through December and we started the year at 2618 per ounce on December 30th going into 2025.

Speaker 1 5:57

Then, once the tariff action got going, that's when it was off to the races here, you see, we hit 3000 for the first time in mid-March, shot back down under 3000 the beginning of April and then we flirted with 3500 just a couple of weeks ago, which is insane. So the reason that I'm going to say that we were partially wrong on that is it's outperformed what I thought it might do, but it's still following the same trends. Now, in the last time we did a check-in about a month ago on this when it was in the high 3,400s and you can see at the time I'm recording this, it's now $3,392.70 an ounce for gold right now. We told you that our best projections and educated guess would be that it was going to continue to be a roller coaster. It was probably a good time to maybe sell a little bit in that 34 to 35000 to $3,500 range and then it would probably level off and then continue to rise over the next three to six months. But at some point this year and I still believe this is probably a pretty good guess some point this year, we believe you're likely going to see a $400 to $6 an ounce drop, which you could make the argument that that's already happening right now, since we're down about $100 an ounce drop, which you know you could make the argument that that's already happening right now, since we're down about $100 an ounce the last couple of weeks here, since we did our last episode on this. But having said that, I do believe, if you look at the historical data, which, again, none of what we've done here has been based on tariffs, none of it has been on emotion, it's all on historical, factual statistics, the data going back again, like I said, nearly 100 years of inflation data, economic data to project out what we believe gold has done in the past and it'll probably do the same in the future typically, and it's done that, thankfully, so far. That's why, when we were telling you it would likely go to 3,200 an ounce, when it was 1,700, 1,800 an ounce, we've seen that happen. I do believe, based on that data alone, that there is a strong floor for gold in the very high 2000s, low 3000s. So in that 2,900 to 3,200 an ounce range, there's probably a very strong floor that it needed to catch up to, based on the historical inflation rates, and it has caught up to and surpassed now. So, even if we do see a little volatility, or a lot of volatility, and it goes back down, we believe it's likely that it'll stay above 3000 for the rest or majority of the year. So that's our two cents on gold.

Bitcoin Performance and Predictions

Speaker 1 8:28

The one that I think that we nailed the most accurate with our election night predictions was Bitcoin. So at the time that we recorded that, bitcoin was 76,000. We told you that, based on just the excitement of an election, regardless of who won, that we were probably going to see an uptick. When you factor in the fact that Trump and his family are very pro crypto and I think you know, they even announced not only a pro crypto presidency but their own crypto products exchange NFTs whatever it may be with the family there. So that was obvious. I mean, that wasn't hard to make a guess that you would see an immediate pop. And we did. We told you we thought it would hit 100,000. And I told you at that time if it did hit 100,000, I'd be selling. Actually, we did an episode right here on December 5th when it was 102,000 plus. You can go back and listen to that. I told you if it was me just because I've been burned by crypto so many times I would have been selling my Bitcoin. I don't have any Bitcoin, but if I did, I would have been selling it right there, but I did tell you I thought that we would have an opportunity to buy back in, just because it's so volatile. So I'm going to say that we pretty much nailed this one right on the nose here, because on December 5th 2024, when we made that episode, you can see it above $100,000.

Speaker 1 9:52

On December 5th 2024, we made that episode you can see it above 100,000. Then it dropped all the way down at one point to 80,000 at the end of February, going into March 2025. Then it's been a roller coaster, as it always is, ever since. You had it actually hit a low of 77,000 on April 7th, and so this is the buying range that I talked about back in December, that if you sold at that 100K, you'd probably have an opportunity to buy back in in the 70s or 80s, and that was that period right here. So if you did that, then you're probably pretty happy about it, because now it's shooting back up. You can see we've spent the majority of the last month above 90,000. At the time we record this, we're at 96,600 per Bitcoin, which is still insane to look at.

Speaker 1 10:42

I do believe this is a good holding number. Right here, we saw the volatility that we expected to see going right at the beginning of Trump's presidency win, and then the volatility that we expected to see going right at the beginning of Trump's presidency win, and then the volatility going down amidst all of the tariff chaos and all that throughout March and April. Now it's found its footing to some extent. Obviously, crypto is always going to be volatile, whether it's going up or going down, but, as you can see by this chart, if you bought Bitcoin six months ago, you're up 29.27%, which is about a 60% annualized return. So you're probably pretty happy. You'd be even more happy if you can hold on to that, which is always the thing with crypto. You can have I mean, I've had 200% gains on crypto in a day, but it's can you hold on to it. That's the most important thing.

Speaker 1 11:33

So I'm still you know at this point, I'm not a huge fan of Bitcoin. I think, if you already have some, I'd recommend holding, maybe offload a little bit, depending on what your entry point is. But I would be, at this point, pretty shocked if Bitcoin did not in the year above 90,000. Pretty shocked if Bitcoin did not end the year above 90,000. And I wouldn't be surprised if it even jumped up and tapped 120, 125 at some point during 2025. So there's still a lot of room there and, as is anything that's volatile like this that you're using in some format as an inflation hedge, like gold, like cryptocurrency, you should be in it for the long term. You should be holding for the long term, only invest what you can afford to hold on to and wait it out because at some point, just like someday I don't know if we'll be alive to see it or not someday gold will be $5,000, $6,000 an ounce. Someday, bitcoin, unless they split it up somehow, will be $200,000, $250,000, whatever it may be. These things happen as a factor not only of the asset itself, not only of the asset class, but because of the devaluation of the dollar, which has been happening since the dollar came to be in this country. So that's that, the stock market.

Stock Market Review and Skepticism

Speaker 1 12:48

I don't really care too much about the stock market, as many of you know who have followed my content over the years, but we'll do a check in there as well. So here's what we told you on election night. So on November 4th, the stock market, or the Dow, rather the Dow Industrial Average, was at 41,800 roughly, or the Dow, rather the Dow Industrial Average, was at 41,800 roughly. At the time that I'm recording this, it is at 41,142. So it's down very slightly, basically held steady. This was one of the things. Even though I despise the stock market, I think it's a casino and you're better off going to a casino and putting your savings on black on the roulette table than playing with the stock market.

Speaker 1 13:40

It is shocking to me because we went back to 1980 stats for the stock market and we looked at the last however many presidential elections that is I guess that's about 11 or so presidential elections, and it didn't matter Republican, Democrat, who the president was there was a shockingly consistent trend over the last 45, 50 years to where, immediately after the election, every time from November going into December January, there was a huge uptick in the market, with, I believe, only one exception, and that's what happened here you can see the market actually, within the first week of Trump's win, went up about 10%, almost closer to 8% actually. Then it continued. We actually saw this on the data and this held consistent. We peaked out in December at right above right at 45,000 for the Dow. So that's up a full nearly 10%. Then we also did tell you it was very common this wasn't as consistent as that bump was in the data, but there was usually a dip going into the start of the following year after an election. We saw that too. Then we saw, right after the inauguration, pop back up above in that 45,000 range and then, once we hit tariff time, we saw a pretty catastrophic drop. We actually popped all the way down to 37,645 for a very brief time before shooting back up. And now here we are. Like I said, we're about even down, about one and a half percent since the election on the Dow Industrial. So you know, this is again.

Real Estate Strategy and Final Thoughts

Speaker 1 15:28

I don't. I don't own any stock. I don't advise people to buy stocks. I think it's the biggest nonsense that we've all been programmed to believe that we should just let mutual fund managers do whatever they want with our retirement, not worry about it and not have any personal accountability or strategy involved with how we want to invest, invest. So I'm not a big fan in general, and this is kind of an example of why I mean and why it's a casino to me, because it's up, down, up, down, up down and over the course of the year, if everything's going good, you'll do okay. You'll do a little bit worse than the people that were active. Everything's doing bad, you'll do a little bit worse than the people that try to protect themselves. So, at all the asset classes you want to call it that, I would have the stock market at the bottom of my list. That's just me. That's how I've always been and shall continue to be. I still like gold as an opportunity, as an inflation hedge, and then I do believe it's a great time for the real estate market.

Speaker 1 16:25

I think we're starting to see a combination of chaos, which you know if you've listened to anything I've ever done webinars or podcast episodes. We always say chaos creates opportunity, and what I mean by that is is when all this fluctuation is going on, when people are scared, when sellers are scared, when buyers are scared, and you're not scared, when you have a fundamental calmness, because you have a fundamental calmness, because you have a strategy that you've tested and you've studied and you know you believe works, then you can execute in a way that allows you to move freely through chaotic markets with a calmness and a peace and a gratitude for that situation to be able to capitalize to the fullest extent. So that's what we try to do on the real estate side and I'm grateful to do it, and I hope that if you like real estate, if you like crypto which I know, there's a lot of people that I know that are really doing great with crypto good, you know rock and roll, whatever you're passionate about, whatever you have a risk tolerance for, and whatever you love doing, have a fundamental strategy and understand. This always happens my entire lifetime and people I'm close with that are a lot older than me, more experienced than me. This always happens, since the beginning of media, since the beginning of human civilization, I would assume, certainly in my lifetime to where, back in 2008, everybody said oh, this is the worst it's ever been. Oh, that's Great Depression. Dow will never be above 10,000 again. Now it's been above 40,000 the worst it's ever been. Oh, that's Great Depression. Dow will never be above 10,000 again. Now it's been above 40,000.

Speaker 1 17:56

The majority of the last year Real estate market. We saw drops 70, 80, some places even literally 90% drops in value in real estate prices in 08. It all came back. Not only did it all come back, it came back stronger than ever. It's when it's going down, capitalize on that by making your money on the buy, and when it's going up, be smart about it.

Speaker 1 18:19

And, more importantly, from a real estate perspective, like we also always, thankfully, talk about basing strategies on cash flow, it's where you don't care what it's worth. It only matters what it's worth as far as a property goes when you buy it and when you sell it. Matters what it's worth as far as a property goes when you buy it and when you sell it, everything in the middle, it doesn't matter at all what it's worth, unless you're utilizing that capital. The only thing that matters is how much cash flow is that property generating? And so we try to use the properties as a cash machine to generate the highest possible cash on cash return and give us that protection while still having the asset long-term hopefully for 20, 25 years or more to build on that inflation hedge and get the benefits of that.

Speaker 1 19:00

So that's our market check-in, guys. Again, thank you so much. You would really make me feel happy if you would subscribe, because we've got about 91% of our listeners are not subscribed, so you could do that. We'd really appreciate it. But thank you either way. It really means a lot. I hope we all have a blessed, prosperous remainder of 2025. And I'm excited to see on our episodes coming up in May with some of these awesome interviews we have. So have a great week, guys, and we'll see you next time. Thanks so much.