Putin Warns Europe: Oreshnik & Nuclear Threats After Moscow Drone Strike David Pyne

In this explosive and exclusive episode of the Prove To Me That You’re Alive podcast, NazareN sits down with military historian and geopolitical expert David Pyne to discuss the rapidly escalating conflict between Russia, Ukraine, Europe, and the growing fears of World War 3.

As Ukrainian drone strikes reportedly reach Moscow and tensions continue to rise across Eastern Europe, David Pyne breaks down what Russia’s next move could be, including the possibility of an Oreshnik missile strike, direct confrontation with NATO-aligned European nations, and even the terrifying threat of nuclear escalation.

Could the Ukraine war become the spark that ignites a global conflict?
 Is Europe prepared for what may come next?
 And are world leaders pushing humanity closer toward nuclear fallout and irreversible geopolitical chaos?

This deep and thought-provoking conversation explores:

•  Russia vs Europe tensions 
•  Putin’s military strategy 
•  Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow 
•  Oreshnik missile threats 
•  Nuclear war concerns 
•  NATO escalation 
•  Global power shifts 
•  The future of the West and Eurasia 
•  The possibility of World War 3 

This is a raw and uncensored discussion designed to challenge narratives and explore the deeper geopolitical realities shaping our world today.

Hosted by NazareN.
 Exclusive to the Prove To Me That You’re Alive podcast.

Prove To Me That You're Alive and NazareN had great pleasure sitting down with David Pyne. Mr. Pyne is the President of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, former US Army HQ Staff Officer; National Security Strategist, Military Historian, and Geopolitics Expert and all around cool guy.

Get in touch with David Pyne here:
https://emptaskforce.us
https://dpyne.substack.com
https://nationalinterest.org/profile/david-t-pyne

#russia

#putin

#moscowdronestrikes

Military historian and geopolitical expert David Pyne explains how the US Iran war could bring the end of the American global hegemony, end of American empire and Trump's presidency. 

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:01

Hello, everyone. Welcome to the once or the only prove to me that you're alive podcast, the podcast that challenges the most important questions in the world today. Everything from artificial intelligence to geopolitics. And of course, today we have our go-to guy for all of the geopolitical latest events that are going on. And uh, of course, I'm talking about the military historian. He's a foreign policy expert. He served as the uh deputy director of national operations for the task force on national and homeland security. He is also a former U.S. Army staff officer. And uh these are some of the things that you can read on his resume, his very impressive resume. But from my own uh words, I just wanted to say that, and and I mean this uh very seriously. He has been one of the most important voices for everything that's going on between Russia and Ukraine and now everything that's going on in the Middle East. And so we have him back here today. And I just wanted to say how thankful I am because he's always kind to us, uh, he always answers us, and I'm very appreciative because it's important to have these kind of people come and explain to us what's going on so people don't freak out too much, or if there is a reason to freak out, you are better prepared. So, of course, I'm talking about the one, the only. He's a uh family to this channel already, Mr. David Pine. How are you, sir?

SPEAKER_01 1:34

It is all right, I'm doing great. Uh, thanks for having me on.

SPEAKER_00 1:37

Yeah, just like I told you uh before we started rolling, uh, you look good, you look uh refreshed, and that's a good thing to see with everything that's going on lately. So I wanted to get uh right into it with uh the latest things that are going on, the very you know important, uh crucial things that are happening, of course, in eastern Europe. Uh importantly, it seems like these days you don't know where to look. Uh all of a sudden, you know, Middle East uh goes to you know Ukraine and then back down to Middle East. So much is going on, and that's why we have you on here today. So, again, I just wanted to say thank you. So, Mr. Pine, I wanted to ask you about the latest uh drones attack, drone attacks on Moscow, and I will have a uh three-part question, uh, if you will, uh, because we want to hear you speak and take as much time as you want. So, my first question is if you could break down to the people, what exactly were these uh drone, uh the latest drone attacks on Moscow? And then if you could entertain this with everything you know with your military um expertise, what would be your response to this drone attack if you were in the Kremlin? And lastly, the third part of the question is what should the response be to such an attack? So, again, what were these attacks? What would you do in response? And what should Russia do in response? Thank you.

SPEAKER_01 3:10

Well, uh, first of all, we had a uh a three-day ceasefire, and there were some uh reported violations of that. Um not sure if I've still got you or not.

SPEAKER_00 3:21

Yeah, yeah, sir. I just wanted to put you uh on on screen. Go ahead.

SPEAKER_01 3:26

Okay, good. Yeah, so there was a three-day ceasefire after that. Um and during the ceasefire, uh President Russian President Vladimir Putin had threatened to uh launch massive, a massive uh drone and missile strike on Kyiv if they dared to uh you know attack during the victory day uh celebration in Moscow, which is one of the biggest holidays in Russia. And uh uh Zelensky was smart enough not to do that. However, Putin decided to make good on his threat anyway and launched, I think what was the probably the biggest uh drone and missile strike uh from Russia against Ukraine with uh reportedly up to 1,500 uh missiles and drones over a 24-hour period. Uh that attack reportedly only killed one uh Ukrainian civilian. So obviously it was a targeted military strike. Uh then uh Ukraine responded with uh a large-scale heavy uh combat drone uh strike on Moscow. Uh and that strike reportedly killed, as of a couple days ago, uh killed 18 uh Russians, uh, I think all civilians. Um it's unclear to me whether uh the civilian um attacks were due to a deliberate strikes on uh you know apartment buildings, uh, or if they were uh due to the fact that uh Russian air defenses are very effective and we're able to shoot those down. But in any case, uh we have seen uh you know a greatly increased uh volume of uh growing missile strikes against uh the opposing capitals in this war. Uh this is a war which I predicted uh you know before it broke out that Russia would win uh inevitably. Uh and uh I think uh well while I had predicted that you know Ukraine would fall within uh a matter of weeks, and that prediction was not borne out due to the due to Putin's uh decision to uh withdraw Russian troops from uh uh the Kyiv and northern uh Ukrainian area. Uh that I think is is uh really uh what Putin's uh if I were in the Kremlin advising President Putin, I would say uh it's time for another northern offensive. Uh northern offensive in the Sumi uh Chernihiv or Kyiv area would entirely collapse uh the Ukrainian military and force them to withdraw behind the Dnipro River line. Uh so really all they'd have to do is take uh 200,000 plus Russian troops. Uh, I think it'd be better if they had 300,000, but at least 200,000 in the northern um Ukraine area. And the the closer to the to the uh to the Dniepro, the better. So if it was in Kyiv, that would be the best. Chernihiv, second best, uh Sumi would be the third best. Uh but any of those, uh any any major offensive, uh, Ukraine just simply doesn't have the reserves to oppose that. I mean, their military is down to the probably around 150,000 troops active duty. Uh Russia has uh nearly 700,000 in country. So uh we're looking at uh four to six times as many um Russian troops as Ukrainian troops. So uh the only reason that uh Ukraine hasn't surrendered yet and collapsed is because uh reportedly uh Putin has had some hesitation as to whether he's afraid uh about about how NATO might react to uh another northern offensive in the Kyiv region. Uh, of course, that doesn't you know preclude uh uh you know another Chernihiv or Sumi offensive that doesn't get close to Kyiv, but simply is is uh you know uh with the the purpose of uh taking out uh the Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region from the rear, uh that would and turn their flank. And uh that of course would be highly highly offensive. And then he could basically ignore Kyiv and just uh take over most of Ukraine uh east of the uh Deborah River line. So there's a lot that uh Putin could do. Uh it that's really uh the Russian military has fought bravely, uh inflicting uh, and so is the Ukrainian military, but uh Russian forces have been much more effective because they uh have uh essentially supremacy in terms of artillery, uh, you know, a superiority in drones, uh air power supremacy, uh a lot of different areas where they can uh you know batter uh Ukrainian forces and cause massive casualties. Uh so in my estimation, according to the numbers that I've seen, they've inflicted about 4.5 times more casualties uh to the Ukrainian forces than the uh Ukrainian forces have been able to uh inflict on the Russian forces. So uh, you know, this is just a political question. It's all you know, if uh if uh the hardliners in Russia are able to persuade Putin to uh you know to end Ukraine, uh he could they could he could do so very quickly with the Russian forces uh currently in Ukraine.

SPEAKER_00 8:10

Yeah, uh as far as the Ukrainian military, the uh terrible and horrible conscriptions, the TikTok videos that we have all seen, the Tetzaka conscriptions, uh military conscriptions in Ukraine are uh going up its own escalation ladder, if you will. Uh it's not funny because you know they're they're happening a lot more. Uh they're spreading in regions because uh first it was you know very well centered in southern and eastern Ukraine. Now it's uh spreading more uh you know to Lviv Oblast and uh Zetomer and all of these other cities. So you know that highlights what you said about uh Ukrainian military being depleted. Um, but uh now we have a much you know larger conversation with everything that that's going on going beyond Ukraine. And if we all remember, and I would suggest for everyone, if you haven't seen this, go watch the 2007 uh Putin Munich speech. Uh he so eloquently in his Putin style uh described and kind of outlined the red lines uh for Russia. Uh ever since then, uh if you ask anyone, if you ask even me, uh all of these red lines have been crossed many, many times. Uh especially uh, you know, uh Ukraine invading a partial, you know, part of Mother Russia was which was the Kursk uh region. Uh there were, if anyone doesn't know, uh there were truly just horrible events happening in the Kursk region with uh you know the local population and everything. Um, so these red lines have been crossed many times. Um and the latest uh developments that we are hearing that possibly there were uh Russian drones uh flying over Finland um you know this morning. And even so, that the Finnish government um suggested for people to seek shelter from 4 a.m. uh to 8 a.m. So my question is this um is something going on inside of Russia that we're not understanding because Russia is not responding? Is Russia weak? And uh, you know, what what do you think is holding Russia back from a full-blown response to a NATO European country beyond Ukraine?

SPEAKER_01 10:45

Well, it's a great question. I think that uh Russia has never been stronger since the fall of the Soviet Union. Obviously, there were it was a drawdown period uh during which they remained strong, but uh within uh some years, probably three or four, uh they uh demobilized a large portion of their army and their navy, uh, you know, submarines that were uh resting uh in port, and uh, you know, army forces that were demobilized, pulled out of uh Central Europe and Eastern Europe. Um today, uh the Russian army is uh two to three times the size it was before the war in Ukraine. Uh that this is a war that NATO intended, you know, Biden in particular intended to uh weaken and constrain Russian power, uh reportedly to uh, you know, to knock, famously to knock uh Russia out of the ranks of the great powers. I had said at the time that statement was made uh by the Biden administration that uh that's something that can only be done with the U.S. nuclear first strike, which uh obviously was not on the table. Um so um I think that uh you know we've seen the Russian economy catapult from uh sixth place uh purchase power parity uh to uh fourth place uh shortly after the war began since the war was conducted. So U.S. economic and and Western economic sanctions have had very little effect on the Russian economy. Uh the Russians are essentially mass-producing, uh, 24-7, mass-producing weapons, missiles, and drones. So they have a massive reserve. Uh in terms, you know, we're well aware of an ammo shortage in the U.S. military and NATO militaries. Uh, the NATO militaries are essentially paper tigers, other than, you know, British and French nuclear missiles, uh, which are you know pretty modest size arsenals. The U.S. nuclear arsenal is um uh overmatched uh by you know many times over by Russia's and China's combined nuclear forces. So they have nuclear supremacy over us, they have phenonuclear supremacy over us, uh China over us in the Western Pacific, Russia in Europe, and uh uh there's a lot of other uh capabilities that they're more advanced uh in terms of quality uh and quantity um over uh uh the Western forces, the NATO forces. So um, in terms of a war between Russia and China, or Russia and NATO rather, um, I think uh I think Russia would clearly win, uh, but obviously uh it could be at great costs. Uh a Russian uh attack on NATO would likely begin with a massive cyber attack that could uh alone potentially take down uh both U.S. homeland and uh European critical infrastructure. Uh and then possibly even super EMP attacks, though I think uh that Russia would hold back on those until later. Perhaps uh if they did use uh nuclear weapons, it might be at the the theater or non-strategic level. Uh but ultimately uh Russia has no territorial ambitions in NATO. Uh, you know, I I think there's reason for Russia to want to take back the Baltic states. Uh there's been obviously um, you know, the Baltic states have talked about punching above their weight. Uh, Russia has has accused them of uh, you know, Latvia in particular, of uh saying that they uh they're uh considering having Ukrainian drone strikes uh launched from their territory, and Russia's uh threatened Latvia in no uncertain terms that if they do that, uh their NATO guarantees won't protect them, uh, that they'll respond in kind with uh massive missile strikes on Latvia. And uh based on Trump's comments, uh, you know, both with regards to Taiwan and NATO, it's highly unlikely that the U.S. would respond militarily to uh such strikes in the Baltic states or perhaps even Poland. Uh Poland, of course, you know, there's U.S. forces stationed there, so if uh Russia were to attack U.S. forces, it might force Trump into uh joining uh a NATO-Russia war. Uh but the Baltic states, uh, you know, we have perhaps four or five thousand troops uh there uh at most. And uh if Russian attacks didn't uh you know cause U.S. casualties, then uh I think it's extremely unlikely that we would join that fight. So uh the bottom line is that NATO uh NATO leaders, uh EU leaders need to uh realize that uh uh that the U.S. guarantee, military guarantee over NATO, uh over their countries, is really quite conditional. It's quite uh tenuous and unreliable. Uh certainly in the Trump administration, perhaps if Biden was still president, uh it'd be ironclad as he claims it would, it was. Uh, but with Trump, it's uh it's a totally different story. Um again, I think uh Putin is has no desire to go to war with NATO. I think he's been very careful to avoid that. And that explains his caution with regards to uh you know our northern offensive uh to re uh to take Kyiv, uh which uh Russian forces came within two miles of of uh Kiev's city limits within 11 days of their Blitzkrieg invasion in uh uh February and March of 2022. So Russia has the capability to defeat Ukraine in short order. They have the capability to defeat NATO, but not the intention. And when you're discussing threats, uh the Russian threat, uh, you know, intention-wise, it's not a massive threat, uh, but it capability-wise, it is. So if if uh Putin were to die, and as uh many Westerners hope he hope he will very soon, and was replaced with a hardline Russian leader, uh we could see that change very quickly. And uh, you know, uh a Kiev uh invasion materialized that could enable Russian forces to advance uh all the way to the Polish and Romanian borders and essentially either annex Ukraine or make it a Russian satellite state.

SPEAKER_00 16:17

Yeah, it seems to me. I'm sorry, yeah, right. Uh first of all, I just wanted to say uh I really appreciate that you're one of the only people uh that does talk about cyber attacks. You talked about cyber attacks possibly coming from Iran and now Russia, and I think you know, people forget about the potential of a cyber attack and how how uh devastating that could be. Um, so I wanted to ask you this as far as the latest developments with supposed Russian drones uh flying over Finland. Now, uh drones, unknown drones or drones of unknown origins have been flying around uh, you know, the Scandinavian countries for the last couple of years, sightings in uh Denmark, uh even the Baltic states, Finland. Um, but now it seems like something uh different is going on. Uh, you know, it's it's like all of a sudden uh Finland is sort of waking up to a potential uh actual uh strike from Russia. So my question to you is this what do you make of these uh supposed Russian drones uh flying over Finland? Were they Russian drones, or was this another attempt uh uh from the Ukrainian side to push a NATO uh country finally into this conflict?

SPEAKER_01 17:39

Well, it's really interesting because we've seen instances of Ukrainian drones being flown over the Baltic states, and in some instances, what appears to be a deliberate strike on uh a Lithuanian uh energy uh production facility by Ukraine. So, in terms of Article 5, you know, there's plenty of arguments uh for uh going to war against Ukraine because uh Ukraine has conducted strikes against uh uh targets both in Hungary, obviously, uh uh with the uh Russian pipeline uh and now against uh uh Latvian energy facility as well. So uh it's very strange that uh you know that the UNATO support and EU support remains so strong for Ukraine, uh given how duplicitous uh you know uh dictator Zelensky and war criminal Zelensky has been. Um and uh obviously there have been war crimes on both sides. Uh, didn't mean to to single Zelensky out, but he's he is a tyrant to his own people, essentially, and he's a dictator without elections, as uh President Trump has stated. Certainly no Democrat. And and I'd love to see him replaced with someone like Yulia Tymoshenko, uh former Ukrainian prime minister who's open to uh peace negotiations, a compromise peace deal uh with uh with President Putin and the Russian Federation. But in terms of uh the Russian drones over uh Finland, I think that uh you know there have been a lot of instances of actual Russian reconnaissance drones. Um I don't think there's something that, you know, something really nefarious going on. I mean, I think they're obviously uh spy and intel gathering and strategic signaling on the part of Russia that, you know, if we wanted to put uh nuclear weapons in these or you know, EMP warheads or uh, you know, uh just conventional uh warheads, we could, you know, take out your government buildings, your ministries of defense, your uh uh presidential palaces. Uh there's really uh any number of things that Russia can do. And you know, NATO leaders couldn't hide. They don't have uh massive underground bunkers like Russia has, uh underground cities uh like uh Yamantau and Kabinsky Mountains, uh where they could ride out a nuclear, a direct nuclear strike uh, you know, with no problem. So um I think a lot of this is simply fear monitoring on the part of NATO leaders. Um they're inviting the Russian threat, they're they're courting uh all out uh you know world war with uh with Russia with their continued uh proxy war against Russia and Ukraine. Uh and it and it should just it should uh uh strengthen uh you know nationalist uh parties within uh Europe uh that are very much opposed to war with Russia, including uh the AFD in Germany and uh a number of others. Uh obviously uh uh the party of Viktor Orban that was recently defeated, uh, unfortunately, due to uh his his uh being associated with President Trump, who's deeply unpopular with uh with Europeans. Uh two-thirds of Europeans now reportedly view the U.S. as a greater threat to uh to them than Russia uh because uh Trump's erratic actions and his his threats to uh annex Greenland and uh punish uh you know NATO, NATO countries uh that uh didn't allow overflights or uh you know um uh basing rights uh during in as part of uh his his uh undeclared war against Iran.

SPEAKER_00 20:58

Thank you for that. So just a really quick side question. I I forgot to uh put this in into the last uh package of questions. Um why wouldn't Finland uh you know, let's say Finland really thinks that these are Russian drones. Why wouldn't Finland just shoot them down? And if they would shoot them down, what would be you know the next uh phase from Russia or from Europe?

SPEAKER_01 21:24

Well, I think uh U.S. and NATO counter-drone capabilities are you know pretty limited. Uh we we've seen uh you know massive drones over uh U.S. um military bases in the Washington, D.C. general vicinity in Northern Virginia, uh particular, I think Langley Air Force Base during the Biden years. I think it was around 2024. And those were likely Chinese drones, but we uh we didn't have the the our commanders on the ground didn't have the military capabilities or even the legal authority to shoot them down. So I think of the drone uh threat is is kind of a new a new threat that uh you know NATO and Western. Leaders are still adjusting to. And so I think that's that's part of it. But obviously they don't they don't want to further provoke Russia, you know, by shooting down uh Russian aircraft, either manned or unmanned. Uh obviously manned aircraft would be a much bigger provocation. I think they probably could get away with shooting down Russian drones, uh, as Poland has done. Uh, we've seen Poland do that with the Russian drones over Poland. But uh there have been reported uh drone sightings over the Baltic Sea uh as far as northern Germany and Denmark, and I think even Norway, Norway, uh perhaps even Sweden. Um, and those drones uh you know are likely operated from uh Russian ships. Obviously, uh, you know, Russia has uh quite uh a large number of ships, uh both warships and uh you know civilian or civilian uh military uh dual-use ships in the Baltic region because uh Russia is the lone nuclear superpower in that area, despite the fact they've lost a lot of real estate. They still have uh you know their main Baltic Sea uh head fleet headquarters in Kaliningrad and uh a lot of other nuclear capable ships there. So um uh yeah, I think the drone threat is is in many ways overstated in terms of you know uh Russian recon drones, long-range recon drones, and medium-range drones over NATO countries or uh NATO waters or NATO claimed waters, territorial waters within that go uh 12 miles out from the coastline. Um and I think that Finland was very unwise to join NATO. Both Finland and Sweden essentially painted a red target on their backs. Uh, you know, they didn't have before, uh, because uh Putin, of course, had uh no maligned intentions, yeah, good good relations with uh uh Sweden and Finland as neutral states uh that have been neutral throughout the uh uh you know from the end of World War II until uh the end of the Cold War and many years beyond that, until 2022 when they they joined up. Um but uh you know Russia, we've seen Russia form a brand new uh you know Leningrad military district with I think four army divisions uh ready to invade Finland uh if uh in in the event uh war breaks out between Russia and NATO, and and Finland would suffer uh massively if uh if that were to occur. And if uh if they had stayed neutral, then that there would have been no Russian threat to them whatsoever.

SPEAKER_00 24:23

Yeah, just like you're so uh very correctly previously highlighted, um Ukraine is in big trouble as far as manpower, and uh you know they have huge problems as far as the stability of the government with everything that's going on, everything from Mindic Gate to um all of these uh corruption cases that are popping up everywhere. Uh so it's it's a very unstable um government from within the country, but a lot of but because um sort of we're seeing Ukraine uh kind of freely uh flying into Russia with drones, and it seems like the distance now is getting farther and farther. Uh these attacks are becoming more and more unpredictable. A lot of people are asking this, and I wanted to ask uh your expertise um, is Ukraine winning the drone war? Uh, that's my first part of the question. And second, if you could kind of sort of explain to us from everything you know, um, how are these drones um operating? Uh if you have any intel on that at all. Thank you.

SPEAKER_01 25:29

Yeah, I wouldn't say Ukraine is winning the drone war at all. I think uh at one point they had uh kind of a nominal superiority over uh Russia kind of earlier in the war, and then uh they they attained Russia attained parity and now has uh drone superiority. They've been mass-producing uh, you know, uh Iranian Shaheen drones, uh, you know, as uh Russian improved Russian models um for uh for years now, and and uh the production rates keep going higher. I think they're probably producing about 100,000 combat drones a year or thereabouts, and most of those were medium uh to heavy combat drones uh that can attack at range versus the light uh light drone uh capabilities that the the US has, uh probably superior to superior to or superiority over its enemies in terms of light uh drones, um, you know, essentially carrying uh you know grenades size explosive. Uh but uh you know there have been an increase in FPV drones, which are much more difficult to uh uh to jam. I I don't think the drones that attacked Moscow were you know FPV drones. Um I think they uh potentially were jammable, but there's you know kind of a unseen shadow war or a low-intensity war with uh electronic um you know jamming and electro uh electromagnetic warfare capabilities. Uh Russia has had the upper hand. Uh they they were probably the premier um power along with China in terms of electromagnetic capabilities, jamming capabilities. Um and at one point, uh, you know, 90% of Ukrainian drones were getting uh either, you know, were essentially being taken down by uh Russian jamming capabilities, uh EW capabilities. Um so uh yeah, I don't think uh Ukraine is winning the drone war by any means.

SPEAKER_00 27:20

Thank you for that. Um, I wanted to ask you uh because obviously um you were a kid uh during the cold war. Um I I'm pretty sure you weren't born yet when the Cuban Missile Crisis happened, but you do remember uh the Cold War. You are a military man your whole life. Um from what you remember and the times that we are living now, um how different was the feeling and the threat of uh the Cold War to potentially becoming a nuclear war to everything that's going on now um between Russia and Europe and and that threat uh possibly escalating into a god forbid uh nuclear war.

SPEAKER_01 28:09

Well, uh yeah, another great question. So I was uh a U.S. Army cadet for uh over four years during the Cold War. I I actually was had enough credits to commission as a U.S. Army officer during the Cold War and decided to wait a semester. So I commissioned um less than four months after the Cold War uh was proclaimed ended. So I missed missed the Cold War by less than four months. But uh yeah, I commissioned in uh in 1992 um as a U.S. Army officer, uh Armor Officer, uh obviously combat arms. I didn't see combat. I I that was kind of an interwar period, as I call it, between the two Iraq wars um that I served. And then subsequently I served uh during the um actually it was right before the Iraq war, during the Afghan war. I served on the U.S. Army headquarters staff from 2000 to 2003, uh as uh in charge of Army Armaments cooperation with uh the Russian Federation, uh, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and among other countries. Um but uh you know during the Cold War, it was uh there was definitely a fear of uh you know there would be World War III. They had uh movies like uh Red Dawn, you know, the day after here in the US that reportedly impacted uh Ronald Reagan and convinced him to uh uh steer away from uh military confrontation with the Soviet Union to uh peaceful uh coexistence and obviously arms control agreements, uh, which helped to uh help uh Soviet dictator uh Gorbachev to have the confidence that uh the U.S. would not seek to exploit uh the collapse, uh managed collapse and deliberate collapse of the Soviet Union, uh, as he had hoped to do uh when the Soviets uh gave up their entire empire of uh 20 uh uh captive nations uh back in uh 1991. Um but today I would argue, and certainly during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the threat, you know, uh the danger of nuclear war, I think, was uh very much overstated because uh, you know, uh the U.S. had a five or even a five to one or nine to one superiority over Russia in terms of strategic nuclear weapons. Uh today it's uh almost the opposite. I think uh Russia and China combined probably have anywhere from four or even seven times as many operational uh strategic nuclear warheads than the US has. So uh the threat of nuclear nuclear war is is much higher when we pursue these kind of uh you know military confrontation foreign policies uh you know with Russia and Ukraine and with uh China potentially over Taiwan, although I think that Trump is much more likely to give up uh Taiwan than he is to fight a war with China over it. Uh but that that remains uh you know a major danger if uh you know if a neoconservative, uh openly neoconservative um Republican president or Democrat president takes takes over that that would do so. Um so um I think uh the threat of nuclear war is is really never been higher. Uh, you know, even with uh Iran, I would argue that Iran likely has a modestized nuclear arsenal that they could uh fire from ships. Uh they could fire on Washington, D.C. and or New York City. And uh I don't I don't think uh you know I think uh an attack on DC would would pretty much destroy it. Uh New York City would be uh devastated, but obviously it's a huge city, so uh they may not have, I don't think they have any megaton uh yield uh nuclear weapons that'd be in the uh tens or perhaps at most hundreds of kilotons, probably tens of kiloton range, uh still would kill uh hundreds of thousands of Americans. Um but uh yeah, that is that is much more likely now because the U.S. is uh during the Cold War, we had some sort of nuclear parity. We ended the war with um uh, I guess uh half of the uh 50% of the total number of Russian war uh strategic warheads, actually total warheads. Russia had uh we're about we were at about parity in terms of strategic warheads in terms of numbers, uh, but Russia had a much larger stockpile of non-strategic nuclear warheads. But in terms of throw weight, Russia has always had a big advantage, you know, since this uh probably the 80s uh in terms of throw weight, which is the actual megatonnage uh over the U.S. And that is much more pronounced today. So uh I think that people have a lot of worry to worry about nuclear uh nuclear war uh with uh our crazy neocon foreign policy.

SPEAKER_00 32:31

Yeah, I just wanted to quickly uh compliment you again on your career. Uh sounds like a very impressive career, and that's why I just wanted to point out to everyone that's gonna watch this, that's why everything that you say truly holds a lot of weight. Um, because you're not just you know talking about this these things as someone from the sidelines. Um, and in saying that, I wanted to ask you this. Um, during the uh the Pabeda uh parade, uh the victory parade in uh Moscow, May 9th, um uh Putin kind of implied on uh that this is a time to finish this war. Uh people different people are deciphering this in in a you know different ways. Was he talking about that uh you know it's time to come to negotiations, or is he talking about like, look, if you guys keep you know pushing us more, uh we're gonna you know strike back, uh, we're gonna hit Europe with uh something truly scary and truly uh meaningful. Uh Karaganov and even uh Medvedev, um, you know, they're very uh hot-blooded, if you will. Uh the older population of Russia, uh, because I'm I'm very close to everything that's going on in Russia, I speak fluent Russian. So uh the older uh you know generation, uh, they are definitely getting tired, they're getting impatient. Um everyone that lives, you know, in the um near the front lines uh of the war, like uh Belgorod, uh, you know, these people are suffering. Um, so uh the people of Russia are getting very impatient. They're saying, why are we not striking back? Also, I remember when uh everything broke out in 2022, and when political heads on both sides and Russia and Ukraine were arguing, like, well, why did Russia do this? Why did they come in? Why, why is this, you know, a full blown blown-out war for Ukraine, even for Russia, you know, they still call it a special military operation. And so uh the people from Russia were answering this. Uh, they were saying that, well, look, if we would have let you guys uh attack us first, it would have been much worse. Meaning that, you know, because there were talks of 150,000 Ukrainian troops ready to strike Donbass. And, you know, so Russians were saying that look, if you guys were to attack us in inland Russia, our response would be, you know, devastating. This would be a lot worse. Uh, this will totally be a World War III, and it would be beyond anyone's control. So, uh, you know, taking that in mind, this is what I want to know. Um, what do you think is next? Uh, meaning from the Russia side, let's just, you know, suppose that Russia does finally decide to strike back. What are they hitting first? Is it Finland? Is it Riga? Is it um, you know, Belgium? Is it UK? Uh what would that look like? And how do you think uh Europe and America would receive uh something like this? And and especially, you know, Russia has more than just uh nuclear weapons, they have the Oreshnik uh that you uh you know you described to us uh when the first Oreshnik was um you know deploy hit in uh in in Dnipropetrovsk. So they have weapons that are they have the same power, the same devastating power as a nuclear weapons, but you know, it's not a nuclear weapon. So again, if Russia does hit back, uh none of us want this, who is getting hit first? Or maybe it's Poland. Um, and how would Europe realistically receive this? Thank you.

SPEAKER_01 36:26

Well, a lot of questions there. Uh, so I'm probably not gonna hit them all, but uh in turn and feel free to ask them again if there's there's one you you thought I missed. Um so I think the chances again, the chances of Russia attacking uh uh Europe with either uh conventional or uh other weapons, other than perhaps cyber, I think probably cyber weapons would be their first uh weapon that they would use, perhaps only weapon. Um uh I think the chances are are very low. Uh still overall, despite uh all of the provocations and all the red lines uh that we've seen, uh NATO cross, uh, you know, Putin has every reason to hit us back hard, uh, just the way we've hit we've hit Russia through uh supplying uh long-range missiles and drones to Ukraine and and various other weapons, uh helping to kill 217,000 uh Russian troops uh over the past uh four plus years. Uh you know, it's just it amazes me how uh you know reasonable and restrained and rational uh that run that Putin is. I mean, he's just very very restrained, a lot like Iranian leaders, uh, lots of weapons that Russia and Iran could use against the United States, uh, choosing not to. Iran, of course, uh from a position of inferiority versus the U.S. uh Russia with a from a period of superiority militarily in terms of nuclear might uh and super EMP and even cyber capabilities uh that uh Putin simply chosen not to use. And uh I don't think that, you know, the truth is I if uh Russia had a massive northern offensive, I think that would just speed up the uh you know the surrender process. I don't think uh we would see British and French troops uh or U.S. aircraft um filling out uh combat missions against Russian forces uh in any part of Ukraine, let alone central to eastern Ukraine. So uh I think that the risks to Russia would be quite low from northern offensive. I think that's the quickest road to peace. I've been predicting that uh Ukrainian forces would run out of troops uh at current rates. They're losing about 19,300 troops uh killed every every uh month, I think, and an equal number of troops uh seriously wounded and taken out of action. So their total numbers of uh losses um I've calculated it, 980,000, uh over 980,000 dead, another over 980,000 that are seriously wounded and taken out of commission, unable to return to military service. Uh so that's nearly 2 million uh Ukrainian troops that have been killed or taken out of the war. Uh, and they're down to just they're just scraping the barrel. And uh, you know, unless uh Ukraine takes uh you know some kind of radical action to uh mobilize 18-year-olds and you know, 18 to uh 24-year-olds, uh they're gonna run out of troops by the end of the year. I mean, uh they might have 50,000 left. Uh to me, that's kind of running out. Obviously, 50,000 is not enough to uh defend Ukraine, uh Ukraine's 2,000 kilometer border. But uh the interesting thing, and I was interviewed about this uh last week on Russian uh Channel 1 TV, um uh which is uh I'm told uh the biggest uh Russian TV channel in the country. Um that uh you know, there's this 2,000 kilometer border, and uh only a thousand of it, kilometers of it is being contested. So, you know, essentially uh northern Ukraine and northeast Ukraine is uh kind of a sanctuary for uh Ukrainian forces. Uh certainly there are operations uh in Kursk that have been going on. There's been a little bit of territory in Sumi that has been occupied by Russian forces, but really minuscule amounts of territory. The main battlefront continues to be the um the Donbas region and specifically uh Donetsk. And there's just no reason for it. Uh, you know, this is uh Russian forces have lots of tanks, yeah, uh the largest tank power in the country in the world, uh, and they have the capability, even with uh Ukrainian drones and um specific, you know, particularly uh to uh you know do an invasion far away from the main front. Um, you know, the drones only show up with the with uh Ukrainian forces. So uh obviously Ukrainian drone power is heaviest in the Donetsk and Southeast Ukraine uh region. So the the more remote a Russian uh you know massive uh uh blitzkrieg operation took place, such as uh Sumi or Chernihiv or uh to a lesser extent Kyiv, uh the less drones they would encounter. Um so uh I just you know I'm perplexed that that Putin has has been so reticent to uh to order that when uh you know Russia came within days of uh knocking Ukraine out of the war with the Istanbul agreement uh in the fur, you know, just in the the first several weeks of the war.

SPEAKER_00 41:16

Yeah, I really hope uh because your your you know a lot of your predictions uh do come true. So I really hope uh the collective West is uh can hear your voice in uh in everything that you're saying and kind of cool down. Uh but let's let's just suppose the worst, um, that these red lines are going to be pushed more and more. Um, because we do see a lot of this, you know, insane, nonsensical, fanatic, you know, sort of actions uh from the European establishment, definitely from the Ukrainian political elites. Um it seems like they're bipolar, they lost their mind. Uh, you know, a lot of a lot of crazy things uh going on that to an average uh person and to a military expert like you doesn't really make sense, but yet these things are happening. And I just wanted to say someone as you know, I have a I'm a Slavic, I'm Ukraine, born in Ukraine, um, and uh like I said, I understand Russian, and uh the way Russian people always uh kind of talk amongst each other as far as the West, they're saying, look, um, we're fighting Ukrainians as our own. Like to Russia, this is a civil war, right? So that might be the answer of why Russia is not going all out, and they're saying to Europeans, like, look, uh, a war with you would be much different. You are not our own, um, meaning that it will be all gloves off. So let's just suppose again, God forbid, uh, but uh, you know, the insanity of Europe continues and they keep pushing to wake up the Russian bear. Um, what does that uh conflict and war look like? Especially because a lot of people are not talking about this, but this is true for worldwide, the younger generation, they are very passive. Um, they're not uh too, you know, they don't hand handle stress very well. They're this, you know, numerical uh internet age sort of uh people. So what would this war look like? What if God forbid this escalates? You know, is this a bunch of Areshniks dropping on all capitals of Europe? Uh is this a you know a military meaning a marine war where you know there are troops on the ground fighting one another? Is this a drone war? Like what would that type of uh third world war look like? Uh from uh from what you think?

SPEAKER_01 43:55

Yeah, you're absolutely right. So uh Russia views uh Ukrainians as Slavic Others essentially, uh almost potential Russian citizens. Obviously, they've annexed five Ukrainian regions, uh, you know, most of uh the four uh most recent regions in uh Donetsk, Luhansk, uh, Zaporozhya, and uh uh Kyrzon. And uh, you know, they they're treating uh the uh citizens, the citizens of those regions as Russian citizens with all the rights of uh according to Russian citizens, not as an occupied population. So essentially as liberated people. Now, not all the Ukrainians that have been annexed into Russia, you know, feel like they're Russians. Uh they don't feel like they're liberated, but uh many do. A good percentage do, perhaps as high as 40%. So um, you know, they're actually better treated and better off and have a better standard of living as Russian citizens than Ukrainian citizens. And of course, you know, if you're this a citizen of one country, uh you often prefer to be poorer and part of your original country than you do uh, you know, uh a next country as a part of a conquered territory. But in terms of uh a war between uh Russia and NATO, uh Russian leaders have been very clear that it would be, you know, a lightning war probably would be over within a few weeks at most. It would be a war uh that would be no hold spars, it would start with a massive cyber attack against uh uh NATO and probably and the U.S. as well. Uh I would I would say not at first, so because I think Russia would uh wait to see how the U.S. reacts. If there was no military response, if as I uh have ascertained, uh the U.S. uh Trump responded simply by sending weapons, perhaps military advisors, but no combat troops uh to the Eastern Front of NATO's eastern flank, then um I think that uh you know we could uh the U.S. homeland would likely be spared from massive cyber attacks. So it would initially just be uh you know uh focused in Europe. I think we would see uh Russian uh you know blitzkrieg style um invasions of all three Baltic states, particularly Lithuania, as uh Russia would uh top immediate priority would be to uh cross the Savalky Gap to uh reunite uh Kaliningrad with the rest of uh you know Belarus and the Russian Federation. Um so uh I think that could be taken. Probably the Baltics would fall within a week. Um, you know, whatever NATO forces were there would be uh trapped uh and would have some kind of Dunkirk uh you know military retreat essentially that likely would be failed. Retreating forces from the sea would be uh under massive drone attack, uh torpedo attacks from submarines, missile strikes. Um so the casualties on the NATO side, both uh you know, military would be quite severe, and then civilian uh that would be uh low initially, but then would expand with uh you know lack of power, the cutoff of uh electrical power and uh basic utilities and necessities such as uh food distribution, water distribution, and water purification. Um if uh if NATO forces, uh NATO didn't surrender in terms of some kind of conditional surrender uh to Russia, then uh we could see uh Russian forces uh taking uh much of Poland, uh which uh much of which is former Russian territory that was part of Russia as recently as um uh you know during World War I until uh around uh you know 1918 or 1917. So uh, you know, I don't think Russian uh we wouldn't see Russian troops advancing beyond Poland or um into Germany. I don't think we'd see that uh or beyond the Baltic states. Um you know, we we could see some Russian troops in Romania, but I I doubt it. I think uh they'd obviously finish off Ukraine uh very quickly. Obviously, uh Putin would have no uh you know uh no uh reluctance to finish off Ukraine in terms of taking Kyiv and then uh advancing all the way to the uh you know essentially annexing Ukraine uh and uh making a part of Russia, either a de facto or dure, um, and advancing to the uh the Polish and Romanian borders. So uh you know that would be the quickest way to ensure that Ukraine gets annexed by Russia uh would be you know for NATO to provoke a war with Russia. Um but I don't like I said, I don't think uh that uh we would see uh uh Russian forces advancing to Berlin or Paris or uh you know other in the low countries or anything like that, uh probably wouldn't advance beyond Poland. Uh but we could see uh you know the use of uh super EMP weapons, which would be far more devastating for NATO uh and potentially the US that could uh really destroy our critical infrastructure for good. Or we could see um uh the use of uh non-petit nuclear weapons, I think uh were Russia to use even um so-called tactical or uh theater nuclear weapons against uh against NATO forces, I think that would uh really compel uh you know NATO to uh surrender very quickly. And when I say surrender, I mean conditionally, you know, in terms of de-escalating on uh Russian peace terms uh to ensure that that uh uh the war didn't expand to a full-scale nuclear exchange.

SPEAKER_00 49:21

Thank you for that. Yes, since I have you here for a few more minutes, I wanna, and we all thank you very much always for your time. Um, I want to sort of marry two questions into one. At least I I'll I'll try I'll attempt uh uh try to try to do this. Um so and here's my question. Uh, recently the White House uh or the Trump administration released the UFO files. Now, don't get scared, Mr. Pine. I'm not gonna ask you if you believe in aliens. Um, this is my question. Um, was this a move from the Trump administration to sort of distract uh the American people from everything that's going on? And going into my second part, recently Tucker Carlson hosted the former uh Ukrainian press secretary of from uh Zelensky, uh Yulia Mandel, and she sort of blew the lid on uh Zelensky and the corruption and the fact that he's a drug addict. And so uh a lot of people watched uh that interview. A lot of Americans are waking up to you know this fact that look, uh billions of our taxpayer money have has have gone to a corrupt uh government. Everything that we've been told about Ukraine is a lie. So again, uh two-part question. So the UFO files, were they a distraction? How you know how much longer can the American public avoid everything uh that's going on? And what uh what should the reaction of the American people be uh about you know this geopolitical disaster that's happening all around the world, and especially with all these distraction uh ploys that are you know being exercised on us? Thank you.

SPEAKER_01 51:13

Well, I think uh, you know, uh it was said about Joe Biden that he lit the world on fire. Uh sadly, uh, you know, Trump promised to put out the fire, and instead he's poured gasoline on the flames. Obviously, there's been some progress in terms of actual negotiations, bilateral negotiations taking place between the U.S. and the Russian Federation. But of course, those were canceled uh on February 28th when uh Trump made the uh foolish decision to uh launch an illegal and unconstitutional and uh unjust war against Iran that had not attacked us uh ever, actually never attacked us directly. Um, obviously in responding to U.S. attacks with uh you know some attacks uh against U.S. troops uh uh two or three times over the past um uh couple years. But um yeah, I think that um I think that UFOs uh, you know, I don't I don't believe aliens exist. I think uh I can't speak to whether this was uh intended as a distraction or you know simply trying to provide some level of transparency. But yeah, more more than likely uh some level of distraction from all of Trump's uh disastrous uh you know foreign policy debacles uh in terms of Iran and uh continuing to fight uh Biden's war in Ukraine. So uh uh you know I'd love to love to see that end. Uh what was your second question?

SPEAKER_00 52:33

Yeah, I just wanted to know how far can the American public be pushed and what should our reaction finally be to this mess that we are in all around the world?

SPEAKER_01 52:45

Well, unfortunately, uh, you know, the U.S. uh sorry to say that most that U.S. citizens uh don't really have a lot of control over their government. Uh, you know, Trump is a lame duck president, so uh he's doing whatever he wants, and and the American people are responding by uh you know decreasing their support for him. Um I think there's um the the decreed in uh decrease in support from for President Trump among his own voters has been 21%, which means 17 million um uh Americans have that voted for Trump kind of regret their their decision to vote for him. I I being one of them. Uh I don't it's not that I regret my decision to vote for him. It's just uh yeah, I I would have not I would probably I would not have voted for him if I knew what a neoconservative president he would be in terms of uh you know starting all these unnecessary regime change wars um and uh you know being so militant in uh you know ruining the U.S. economy and hurting U.S. interests, our national security, our economic uh security. So um I think that uh the American people they have the opportunity to show their displeasure against uh the president's failed uh foreign policy uh you know at during the election time. And I think that I expect that in the November election, uh the congressional polling average, uh, Democrats are leading by 7.2%. Uh they were leading by 4% uh just uh eight years ago uh during the 2018 midterm elections, which was uh Trump's first midterm election. And uh the Republicans lost uh you know 41 House seats and seven governorships. Um so I would expect that we would see similar results in 2026, given that the president's uh approval numbers are uh almost four points lower, and the congressional polling average is over three points lower.

SPEAKER_00 54:38

Thank you, Mr. Pine. So I have a last uh question, and it's gonna be a sneak, again, sort of two-part question. But uh, my last question is this uh with everything, you know, from the economics to artificial intelligence going places where we can't even expect or predict to all these wars breaking out all around the world, um, should we prepare for the worst? And the second part of my question, obviously, in good tradition, what have you been up to um as of late? And uh where can we uh look you up and read some of the articles? Thank you.

SPEAKER_01 55:16

Yeah, we should absolutely prepare for the worst. Uh, I think that uh President Trump continues to push us uh closer to World War III. Uh I don't think he's gonna try to get us into a deliberate war with China, but uh, you know, just as during the Cold War, there was the main risk was from an accidental uh uh breakout of World War III. Um and I I see that uh being the case uh today because uh you know we continue to have this, we continue to try to, you know, in terms of U.S. leaders uh try to exert uh uh overlapping spheres of influence over areas uh adjacent to Russia and China that they're clearly within their spheres of influence, such as Ukraine and Taiwan. So uh what uh I'd uh recommend your viewers uh do is uh buy a year's supply of food storage, uh get as much uh water storage as you can as well, uh large, you know, huge water barrels, uh maybe uh dig a well in backyard, uh, buy guns and ammunition uh for self-defense purposes. Uh I also have uh solar power and a Tesla battery um power wall that can provide power uh long term uh throughout extended uh you know um power down situations or grid down situations. Um in terms of what I've been up to, I've been uh I think I've written about six articles this this uh month, so perhaps the most prolific I've ever been, uh three of which were within uh the same week. Uh and those articles uh mostly about the Iran War, uh also deal a little bit with the Ukraine war and and obviously the uh rising tensions in uh you know South China Sea with uh between China and Taiwan, and also the summit. I'm working on an article about the summit, but uh you could go to uh my uh Substack, which is the Real War Substack uh located at uh dpyne.substack.com. Once again, dpyne.substack.com, and uh or you can see my uh daily comments and updates uh on X, which is uh my X handle is at America First Con. That's spelled C O N.

SPEAKER_00 57:18

Yeah, I wanted to remind everyone always, all the links will be in the description. Go find Mr. Pine, go support uh Mr. Pine and uh, Mr. Pine, honestly, I'm not losing hope that one day I could still get you to run for office. Um, so um, you know, I sort of have my uh fingers crossed on that one. But uh, sir, uh, you know, on a serious note, thank you so much for always taking your time. Thank you for being explaining everything to us in such a cool-headed uh manner. It's very important. Uh these last, you know, the last answer of yours, I think it's absolutely critical um that you know we actually pay attention to what you're saying and wake up to you know all this mess um that's going on and actually, you know, not be afraid, but prepare uh for the worst, as you uh said. So uh Mr. Pine, thank you so much, sir. And uh hopefully we could get you back on uh soon and maybe things will be uh a lot better. So God bless you and thank you.

SPEAKER_01 58:22

Thanks, Cesar. Always a pleasure. God bless you as well. Thank you, sir. Thank you.