Climate Economics with Arvid Viaene

#33 Dr. Frances Moore – From $130 to $280 per Ton: Rethinking the Social Cost of Carbon

Arvid Viaene

Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.

0:00 | 40:02

What is the social cost of carbon, and why do estimates vary so widely?

In this episode, I speak with professor Frances Moore about her paper synthesizing nearly 150 studies on the social cost of carbon.

We discuss how the literature has evolved, why the distribution of estimates has such a long right tail, and why experts often underestimate the average value found across published studies.

Fran also explains how the paper combines a large literature review, an expert survey, and a machine-learning model to construct a new “synthetic” social cost of carbon distribution.

The result is striking: while the raw literature has a median estimate of around $40 per ton and a mean of roughly $130, the synthetic distribution shifts those figures to around $180 and $280 per ton.

We also discuss:

  • the difference between level damages and growth-rate damages
  • why discounting remains so important
  • how tipping points and other structural modeling choices affect estimates
  • the influence of models such as DICE
  • why assigning climate damages a value of zero is inconsistent with the evidence

A useful conversation for anyone interested in climate economics, cost-benefit analysis, or how policymakers should value the damages caused by carbon emissions.


Links:

Transcript: https://www.climateeconomicswitharvid.com/p/33-dr-frances-moore-dr-frances-moore

F.C. Moore, M.A. Drupp, J. Rising, S. Dietz, I. Rudik, & G. Wagner, Synthesis of evidence yields high social cost of carbon due to structural model variation and uncertainties, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 121 (52) e2410733121, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2410733121 (2024). 

Frances’ site: https://franmoore.faculty.ucdavis.edu/

Related episodes:

·      #6 From $0 to $190: How U.S. Presidents Have Priced a Ton of CO₂: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2412056/episodes/17723637

·      #21 Dr. Richard Tol on FUND, Climate Damages and Why Adaptation Matters: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2412056/episodes/19410124

·      #32 Dr. Gernot Wagner: Why Tipping Points Matter: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2412056/episodes/19410124

For questions, comments or suggestions, you can contact me at arvid.viaene.ce@gmail.com