Wireless News in the US, special 2024 election edition (Nov 8)

Briefing Doc: Telecom and Tech Policy After Trump's 2024 Election Win

Key Themes:

1. Deregulation and Industry Favoritism: A second Trump administration is expected to favor deregulation across the tech and telecom sectors, particularly benefiting companies like Starlink and potentially harming rivals like fiber broadband providers.
2. Uncertainty Around Spectrum Allocation: While the need for more spectrum is widely acknowledged, the allocation process under Trump remains uncertain, with various stakeholders vying for influence.
3. Potential Conflicts of Interest with Elon Musk: Musk's financial support for Trump's campaign and potential advisory role raise concerns about conflicts of interest, particularly regarding Starlink's position within the BEAD program.
4. The Future of the BEAD Program: The future of the BEAD program under Trump is uncertain, with possibilities ranging from streamlining to complete overhauls potentially favoring satellite broadband over fiber.
5. Impact of Tariffs on Tech and Telecom: Trump's proposed tariffs on foreign goods could disrupt supply chains for telecom equipment and raise the cost of cloud services for enterprises.

Most Important Ideas/Facts:

Deregulation and Industry Favoritism:

• Experts predict a rollback of net neutrality regulations. "Deregulation will be the order of the day," says John Strand, an analyst at Strand Consult. (Mobile World Live)
• The FCC under Trump is expected to be more favorable to Elon Musk's Starlink, potentially granting it more spectrum and favorable policies. (CNET)
• Some experts believe Musk will use his influence to push for changes in the BEAD program to favor satellite broadband over fiber. (Fierce Network)

Spectrum Allocation:

• The FCC currently lacks spectrum auction authority, which needs to be addressed by Congress. (Mobile World Live)
• There is uncertainty about which stakeholders will have the most influence over spectrum allocation, including telcos, cable companies, the Department of Defense, satellite providers, and big tech companies. (Mobile World Live)

Elon Musk's Influence:

• Musk's significant financial contributions to the Trump campaign and potential role as an advisor raise concerns about conflicts of interest. (Capacity Media)
• Musk may push for more spectrum for Starlink and advocate for reducing government funding for competing broadband technologies. (CNET)

The BEAD Program:

• Trump has criticized BEAD for its focus on fiber and suggested Starlink could offer a cheaper alternative. (Fierce Network)
• While some Republicans advocate for streamlining BEAD to accelerate deployment, others may seek to overhaul or even scuttle the program. (Fierce Network)

Impact of Tariffs:

• Trump's proposed tariffs could impact telecom equipment manufacturers like Nokia and Ericsson. (Fierce Network)
• Tariffs on imported chips could raise the cost of cloud services, as hyperscalers would pass on the increased expenses to enterprises. (Fierce Network)

Quotes:

• “Deregulation will be the order of the day.” - John Strand, Strand Consult (Mobile World Live)
• “If you look at Musk’s various efforts to improve his spectrum position, whatever his batting average is, it’s not hot. It’s going to be a lot higher if Trump wins. And that’s a very significant win.” - Blair Levin, New Street Research (CNET)
• "We’re spending a trillion dollars to get cables all over the country, up to upstate areas where you have two farms, and they are spending millions of dollars t

Thank you for listening!
-Mario Mejia