Private Equity Experience

Tariffs, Trapped Equity, and the PE Tightrope: Navigating Uncertain Markets

Emily Sander Season 1 Episode 11

Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.

0:00 | 37:27

Summary:
In this episode, the hosts discuss the current economic environment, tariffs, and their impact on private equity. They also explore the concept of "trapped equity" and how it affects private equity firms. The conversation touches on the uncertainty created by tariffs, the risk premium required, and how it changes the dynamics of buying and selling assets.

Key Takeaways:
Tariffs create uncertainty: Tariffs lead to uncertainty, which can result in inaction and trepidation among investors and private equity firms.

Trapped equity: Trapped equity refers to assets that have appreciated in value but are difficult to sell or liquidate due to market conditions.

Impact on private equity: Tariffs and economic uncertainty can decrease transaction volume, making it harder for private equity firms to sell assets and return capital to investors.

Risk premium: The risk premium required by investors increases in uncertain times, making it more expensive for private equity firms to finance deals.

LPs want liquidity: Limited partners (LPs) want to see liquidity and returns on their investments, which can put pressure on private equity firms to sell assets.

Contrarian opportunities: In a recession, some private equity firms may see opportunities to buy distressed assets at lower prices.

Predictions:
Tariff situation:
The hosts predict that the tariff situation will improve because it cannot get much worse.

Recession likelihood: Ed predicts a 100% chance of a recession in the next 18 months, while Rory agrees that it's almost inevitable.

Recession depth: The hosts believe that the recession will not be as severe as the 2008 financial crisis and that there will be intervention to mitigate its effects.

Advice for Founders and Private Equity Firms:
Be prepared for uncertainty:
Founders and private equity firms should be prepared to navigate uncertain market conditions.

Look for contrarian opportunities: In a recession, look for opportunities to buy distressed assets at lower prices.

Vet private equity firms: Founders should carefully vet private equity firms and consider their investment thesis and approach in uncertain markets.

Conclusion:
The hosts conclude that private equity firms will continue to adapt to changing market conditions

==============================

🎙 Podcast – Strategies, PE 101 & witty banter

📚 Book – On‑Ramp to Exit, full deal life cycle

🛠 Resources – Free templates, guides, tools

🔗 LinkedIn – Follow us for fresh PE insights

================================

Who Are We?

Three insiders. One mic. All things private equity — explained. Hi 👋 We’re Ed, Rory, and Emily — a CEO, a CFO, and a Chief of Staff — here to demystify the world of private equity. Between us, we’ve sat in the founder’s chair, run PE‑backed companies, and worked on the deal side, so we know the wins, the pitfalls, and the jargon (and we’ll explain it).

Through the Private Equity Experience Podcast, our book On‑Ramp to Exit, and a library of free tools and templates, we share real‑world stories, practical strategies, and insider insights to help you navigate every stage of the PE journey — whether you’re leading a portfolio company, joining a deal team, considering PE, or just PE‑curious.

🔗Connect with Ed

🔗Connect with Emily

🔗Connect with Rory

...

Introduction and Greetings

Emily

Hello? Private equity boys. How we doing?

Rory

We're good. It's been a minute. It's been a

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

It's been a while.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Gosh.

Ed

tax. It's tax season's

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah. Yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Yeah,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Seems like the whole

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

I was gonna, yeah.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

the last, uh, couple months in a way.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Yes, so, so we took a little hiatus because of tax season. Ed gets buried in tax season. He just goes, he just goes away. Then he resurfaces and he has come up for air now. So it's nice to see you, ed.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yep.

Rory's New Venture

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

I'm glad to get a, a proof of life on this podcast with you. Um, and Rory, you've been, you've had some changes as well.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

yeah. I went from doing a lot of consulting work to going full blown, you know, headfirst into working for a startup, or I should say early stage business, so not totally a startup, but much earlier business than I've worked for in the past. so, you know, as, as those things go, kind of all consuming, but, um, yeah, it's been a ride and it will continue to be a ride. So

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Your you're CF Oing.

Startup Challenges and Opportunities

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

am, yep, yep. I, uh, started with this company to a financial, gosh, it's been over a year that I, I started doing some consulting work for'em, but then as soon as I got into the hood and I saw what was there, I was like, boy, this is a gold mine to. FinTech platform and consumer lending platform. And I was like, I wanna ride this thing to the top because there's some special, unique stuff going on there. So, um, been a good ride, but, you know, never easy, uh, running a, running a startup, that's for sure. I.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

I had some conversations about that decision. I was like, which, which way do I go?

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

some serious heart to hearts about that.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Yeah, we did.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

instrumental and, and kind of helped me get off that fence of, uh, hedging, which I like to do a lot. You know, try to not be too much optionality.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Oh my gosh.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

you can only go one way with a, with a startup. And that's, you know, all in kind of, so, yeah. So it's been good. It's

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Yeah.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

though. Yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Very cool. Okay, Rory, you took the plunge,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

got load of risk. Is this like a true startup?

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Well,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

you're.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

of those things without going too deep into the weeds, uh, you know, it's a business that's been around about 10 years. Uh, started as a buy now, pay later, uh, business in Canada, and then pivoted to being a full fledged, um, personal loan provider in the us. And a lot of businesses, they start with an amazing vision and things, but do go like a circuitous path. out what it's, what's really trying to be in the market. So, I came into the business with A-A-C-E-O that was brought in by, uh, the founder, the board, awesome, CEO. And, um, now we're operating the business and it's really, it's, it's, uh, all of the tech and infrastructure really already been built. So it's really just making, uh, making the product and, and market. to life, and that's where we spend our time. So, and then also a lot of capital raising too, of course. You know,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

How's the, who's the sponsor there?

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

uh, it's a widely held, um, investor base in Canada. A lot of

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

okay.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

very wealthy, highly successful Canadian business people, a lot of'em from the Calgary oil and gas industry. Um, so it's one of those, you know, hundreds of investors, individual investor type of deals. But once we. get to the next funding round, it'll, it'll be led by more of an institutional venture capital type type group. So yeah,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

And Ed, will you rega us with your tales of tax returns or.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

You know, I,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

an acquisition roll up strategy over the last.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

was about to say, I've been working, I've been working really the acquisition, the tax season, put the, put a lot of the rollup piece slash integration piece on hold. Um, the last thing you do as a, as a financial professional is try and make major changes in Q4, Q1.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Mm-hmm.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

we closed in Q4. Um, so we, we essentially were, were running three different. Maybe four different accounting platforms, bookkeeping platforms. We're running two different payroll platforms. We're running two different tax platforms. Um, so we're just starting now to do some of those integrations and, you know, continuing to run into interesting issues. Um, know, that, let, let's just say that the, uh. The systems that were, that were in place, were very, uh, customized. So 175

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Proprietary. Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

Um, so we're working to standardize those.'cause what's happened, of course, is. You have an acquisition. This is typical in professional services where you do an acquisition, someone you know, you have folks who are like, yeah, I, I, you know, it's time for me to go. Um, so folks decide to leave at that point, and then you end up in a situation where

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yep.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

those 40 clients had 40 different custom processes that you can't transition in.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

Um, so, you know, it's been a real challenge, uh, from that perspective. Having said that, it was a good tax season, busy tax season we're turn, we were turning down work and are still in the process of like being very selective as to who we take it. It's been shocking

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

Tax Season Overview

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

at the, uh, at really how much demand there is for, um, basic financial services.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Just to give people a sense, like not a deep sense, but just a high level sense of tax season. There's like rolling waves of this thing. There's like business tax and individual tax, and.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

so, so the first, the first

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

K ones. Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

31 to Jan to, or December 31 to January 31, where you gotta file all your information returns, 10 90 nines, W twos, W four, uh, W twos, 10 90 fives, all those are gotta get out. And then you roll into the ne into 90 eights, and then you roll into next phase, which is all your corporate partnership. Returns are due by the 15th of March, then your individual returns are due by the 15th of April. But if anybody extended their partnership or, or, or s corp returns, anything that impacts those, um, individuals, then you have individual extensions. So we still have,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yep.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

we have probably 1200 clients in the firm. Um, we still have probably 500 returns left to file

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

of extensions. And

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Okay.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

I'm one of those extenders myself, just putting off the inevitable bill that's coming up with, with minimal interest incurred. Yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Those were a lot of tax return numbers. Um, for the four listeners who are still with us, we're gonna, we're gonna talk about

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

the,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Oh

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

the economy, what's happening in the market. Tariffs, but the impact is on pe'cause they're getting, they're getting smooshed, they're getting, that's a technical term. They're getting smooshed.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

um, maybe let's, let's.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

outline

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Like what is going on in the economy right now? Some people say, we might be dipping into a recession. We got the whole tariff thing going on. What's what? What is the fancy words for what's happening in the economy here?

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah, that's, that's, that's one way to put it. The other one I think that comes to mind, I hear banding about multiple times, daily. It's just uncertainty. There's been a lot of

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Yeah.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

uh, which, which has.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

has

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Broad uncertainty, which in so many ways brings on inaction and trepidation. Um, and so a lot of things unfolding from, from that sort of viewpoint. You know, fear, you know, fear sort of for some, uh, you know, hardy folks, it means opportunity, I guess. Um, but in, in a lot of ways it's just a lot of, you know, not knowing which way to go, uh, with your business, with your investment strategy. Your options become potentially more limited in how you execute, you know, your private equity strategy, and then there's so many things you can dig into on that.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

How does like connect the dots between like tariff, like what's happening with tariffs and why that affects

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

I

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

a PE firm?

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

I really think it goes back to what Rory just said. It's, it creates this uncertainty of most businesses. It doesn't, it almost doesn't matter what the business is. Even service businesses

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

the one I run, they're. in scope. They have, their supply chains are run internationally. They may have international clients, they may be sourcing labor internationally. And so just, just the tariffs alone, uh, as Rory said, it creates this uncertainty where you're not sure what the future economic return of that asset is going to be. It's, it could be really high, it could be really low. It could, you know, because the, because of the nature of those. Um, kind of uncertain events on the attack side. It, it tariffs our taxes. And so as a result, folks are like, forget it. I'm just not gonna, you know, I, I'm gonna hold until I can see, um, until some of that uncertainty comes out, or if they go to sell. And I know we've talked about this, I

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

I know you get really excited, Emily, when I talk about it, but it changes the risk premium required. And so as a result,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Thank God you brought up risk premium. I was waiting for this.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

gonna pay less, you know, because the risk premium's higher.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

Challenges in Selling Assets

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

So you mentioned a few things there. So like the whole time, so we talked about, hey, like five to seven years, like typical on average whole time, if you're, if you were in a a fund where, hey, like, or in a company where we're on like the seventh year, so we were looking to sell, does this economic environment now push that out?

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

But very potentially. Um, there's a few things at play there. So in order to sell, you need to have buyers, right? You know, we've talked on this podcast, it's in our book,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

book,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

you know, much of the PE investment strategy involves leverage and cost of funds related to that. So taking on debt to finance and acquisition. Well, even as of the, you know. Dates of this very recording, and it was very recently put out there that the fed's gonna, um, you know, delay making rate cuts, right? So

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

So

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

think about that in, in every layperson terms, it just means the cost of money is gonna stay relatively high for a time, right? So, uh, the ability to, you know, to. Take on more debt to finance and acquisition means potentially less buyers if you don't have access to that, which if, if less buyers, as a seller you may not be in a position to have a, as much of a competitive process for selling the company or asset you're holding. Um, you know, you may have other, uh, obligations on your own fund related to debt, maybe on the company. There's a whole litany of reasons where. What we're talking about, right this very moment means that there's just not as much,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

um,

Trapped Equity Explained

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

um, transaction volume happening in the market for so many reasons. And if you don't have that, then it just makes your outcomes more uncertain. And there's a lot of ways to skim that cat per se. But that's what it means is just deal activity is just down, uh, overall. And there's, now there's firms collectively that are holding 3 trillion of assets. with half of that they've held for over five years in the space. So think about that for a minute in a lot of ways that one might relate this to their own personal life, and we talk in our book a lot about, you know, real estate and kind of people relate to, it's like, think about your home. And so many people sit on trillions of dollars of what, what's called trapped equity. Meaning your home is appreciated since you bought it.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

You bought it

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Great. That's awesome. You have a, you have a.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

have

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

And assets that, that's appreciated. But on, in, in, order to

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

to

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

realize that value, you'd need to, uh, unlock that equity or take that equity out, cash out, what have you. But if you sell your home, you get a big profit, well, you have to go buy another home, know? But then you'd have to take a, on an interest rate, that's maybe two times as much as what you've been paying on your current mortgage. So you have to think through.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

pay capital

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

That. Um, so double, triple, quadruple whammy. So you just need to think about the outcomes of Yes. You, you know, if you move to, to sell an asset, what does that mean? On the next step, you go buy more assets at a higher price, you know,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Okay, hold on. Okay.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

much

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

I'm, I'm trying to,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

trying

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

to hang in with you. Okay. So first of all, trapped equity,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

That's a

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

that's a cool term. Trapped equity. So

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

super

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

I have a house,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

to unstrap it and it's trapped in your own life,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

what free, what's equity free?

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

if I have a house

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

and it's like appreciated, so I have like, I'm sitting on equity. I wanna sell it, but there's no, first of all, there's no buyers is the first problem.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Because

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

in this economy right now,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

interest rates to be able to afford that. Your home you're selling.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

So, so like the analogy is, um, I'm a PE firm. I have this company that I bought. It's grown in, it's appreciated in value. I wanna sell it, but there's no buyers. That's problem one.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

yeah,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

To

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Okay.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

no

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

is probably a little overstated,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

There. Okay. There's.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

point is spot on. Yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

The, the buyers are, are skittish and a little more reluctant than they normally are because,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

willing to buy at a price you're willing to sell for.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

because, what did you say, Roy? The cost of money is uncertain.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Or high straight up. It's just high right now. So for them to be able to buy your company, they need to probably put up more cash out of their own back pocket, or I should say, out of their LPs on back pocket. Um, and to take on the debt, they would have to pay a higher. Price for that money. Let's just use real numbers right now. Like, so, um, you know, back in heyday, let's call it a couple years back, you know, you might have had an interest rate of like four, 4.5%, where the cost of money was, like, the risk-free rate was like zero. you add a 4% spread on that, you're looking at four to 5% interest rate. Well, guess what? Now it's closer to eight, nine for the highest grade debt. 9%. So that's double your cost. So if you just

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Oh,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

like if you bought a, a home and your mortgage payment was a thousand dollars per month for, you know, uh, 360 months, you, you're looking at maybe like almost doubling your payment for that same, same,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

okay.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

just to be able to afford it. So you have to think again as like, well, I could sell my home bank a lot of profit, and to Ed's point. to hire Ed's firm to help you calculate the cap capital gains tax you're gonna have to pay. But then you also have to go buy a new home and place to live, just like private equity is the same way they're in the business of doing deals.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Okay. Okay.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

in. They, they,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Okay. So then,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

of continuing to buy deals and sell deals.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

okay, so first problem is I have trapped equity.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Hmm.

Capital Gains and Reinvestment

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Buyer market lower than it was. Second problem. If I sell this sucker, I have to pay capital gains, which is now more than normal or nor more.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Move.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

the same.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

the same, but you, you, when you have a transaction, if there's a gain on that transaction, which you, you would certainly hope there would be. You have a tax that's gonna be due at the LP level or at the corporate level. Essentially you got a profit that you gotta pay tax on and you need to figure out where. Probably more importantly to, to Rory's point is you now gotta figure out where to put that money back to

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Right.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

'cause

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

that's the third one.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

savings

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah. Yeah,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

That's the

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

the third one, but like the second one.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

is

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

that like, is that affected by the market as well? Does the capital gains rate change or is that un unaffected?

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

it's relatively unaffected because it's,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Okay.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

set, but

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Ah, okay.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

that's right. Yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

So, okay, so like the big problem, second problem is I've sold it and now I have to redeploy that capital. And now I'm in this like higher interest rate environment. I'm like, this is stupid. I might as well.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

and here's where, and here's where that tax piece comes in. If you don't have a good alternative, I. To reinvest that money and make back the taxes you just paid plus a return.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

You're better off

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Hmm. Okay. Yes. Okay. Got it. Okay.

Pressure from Limited Partners

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

But here's the problem with that. Introducing a segue. New topic, same subject. Well, term LP limited partner, they want to get their money back at some point.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

uh,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

So what does that mean? There's pressure to sell, You, you, in order to generate liquidity, which means basically. Accessing cash.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

cash.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

You have to sell an asset, but you need the, you need to be able to sell that asset to pay back your

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

your

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

investors, call it. Now, we can get into some esoterica around that because you could then sell secondaries in your position, yada, yada, yada. But point being is, it's a challenge right now because LPs, as we just talked about.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

about

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

general have been in these deals longer. They wanna see their own liquidity.'cause at the end of the day, an LP is a person or a firm

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

firm

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

that is invested in your fund and they have their own obligations in their life too. At some point they put a dollar in, they want to get, you know,$4 back so they can do what they want to do in their lives. Right. So, so that's the other part. And if you're not able to, this is the other point, is if you're not able to return capital to your LPs. How can you raise more capital for your, your current or new fund? So

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Yeah.

Egg Price Woes

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

chain of reaction and it's not just, you know, not just, um, uh, you know, tied to private equity, private credit's the same way other Strat investment strategies. It's just a money flow thing. And that's what really comes down to tariffs and stuff at the end of the day is money flows. It's, there's been some activity on the part of the current administration to try to govern and.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

and

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Impact money flows in a big way, which has created uncertainty, which has had this trickle down effect all the way to how much I'm freaking paying for a dozen eggs and it's hot.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Yeah.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

much on that front, I can assure you that.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Yeah. My grocery store had a quota on the number of egg cartons. You could buy a two, and I was like, Hey, if I want a fricking whatever, 10 egg omelet, I should be able to have one.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

my protein. Exactly. Yeah.

Challenges in Fundraising

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

It's the most bioavailable protein out there. Come on. Um, so LPs, so it's, it's like I want my return, but also, hey, if you want me to reinvest in a future fund, you better, you better pay up. And if other people, if new LPs are sniffing around going like, Hey, like, should I be investing here? Ooh. Like they have been waiting for their payback for a while now. I don't know about this one. Then it's hard to fundraise. Yes.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

a double whammy.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

time is not on your side when you're calculating internal rates of return as well. So, you know, again, getting into the how way in which PE groups get paid, you know, it's based on a carried interest, which is effectively a profit share based on the returns that you're distributing to your LPs. So the more the the, the more and quicker you can get money back to your LPs, the higher. Their investment return is gonna be, which then speaks to how effective your fund is, which speaks to how well you can market your fund to the existing investors and new investors. So,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

So,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

you know, now is a hard time, and I can tell you from personal experience, is, is not the easiest time to be raising equity, period. Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

How long

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

long can PE stay in this stage of things

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

it?

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

it starts to get really bad?

Private Equity Resilience

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Oh, it's a resilient. Resilient asset class pe if they can get through the great recession of 2008 through 2010. We'll, you know, we'll weather this storm. It just, it makes for just interesting, um, dynamics. You know, like, it, it, you know, it's not totally uncorrelated to the overall market. I mean, we all. Our stock market portfolio, our public equities portfolio got smashed in early April. I'm glad I was sitting in Hawaii and not, you know, at that time and, and not just, you know, cut curled up in a fetal position in rainy Seattle at the time when that, know, liberation day happened. Um, but that being said, I, I, joking aside, it's just, you know, these things ebb and flow. You know, this is a different type of,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

Uh,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

for correction, but it's a correction nonetheless. And like. Private equity, private credit. They're foundational to the economy world and, and kind of

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

domestic and

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

you know, it'll, it'll, it'll,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

will

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

it'll still be there,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

there,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

know?

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

you know,

Deal Flow in Tough Times

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

So if they, if they've weathered these, these types of storms before, is it predictable in the sense like, okay, when this happens, PE firms do

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

this.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

I'm assuming there's like for the, for the Port cos in in flight they might tinker with that or change some things there and they might say, okay, for this next round we're gonna do some a few things differently. Did they do any

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

like

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

adjustments or they just kind of let it ride?

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Ed, jump in. I got some things today, but you go.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

my experience has generally been. the, if there's an opportunity for them to exit that investment to do it in a way where they can take some chips off the table, they're going to do it, it's going to, they're not gonna go, well, you know, we're, we're just gonna kind of let it ride because I. macro level, we're letting things ride. They're still gonna be looking at deals at the deal level. They're still gonna be going well, there's deals to be had. We're gonna look for'em. They're just harder to find.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

Um, and it's, and so the deal flow slows,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

it's not, it's not like they, they, I don't, at least my experience has been, and you know, we were, Rory and I were heavy in the private equity world when

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

during the great recession. Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

crisis

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Deep in it. Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

our,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

That's our entire business consumer.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

say our parent co or our, our fund was, was essentially going out and trying to buy everything they could find,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

know? Well,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

and they still were executing sales as well. You know, sales are real estate sale leaseback agreements. They, I mean, it was, it was deal by deal. Um,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

It is true,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

they felt like. If we exited investment X, we could put the money to work in investment Y and still get the return that we're looking for. It's just that some of those investment Y's are harder to find.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

yes.

Contrarian Strategies

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

So, so if a recession hits, are you saying like, the contrarian point of view is just like blood in the water, like buy everything you can.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

think there's, there's a whole swath of firms that, that, that is their entire strategy. Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

Um,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

what was I gonna say along those lines is that, uh, one person's trash is another person's treasure in some ways. And I think there's so much cash

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

cash

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

the fact that. You know, it's uncertain times, accessing, you know, debt capital's expensive. There's still a ton of cash out there. So if you're sitting on cash and you're, you're looking to buy, uh, deals priced with uncertainty in there, IE you know, um, higher risk, premium, lower price, then you're in a good position because you can get deals done. And then

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

And

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

when the interest rates become more attractive back, leverage your deal and do really, really well. For the same relative risk. So,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

um,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

the, the point I'm trying to make, I suppose, is that

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

that

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

no matter what the environment is, there's always innovation and people trying to figure things out. These are really, really smart people that run these firms, so they figure out ways to do a lot of financial engineering to make things work. And I, I talked touched on it a little bit, but one of the things that's happened around creating liquidity is, uh, private equity groups selling their, their positions. Even though they're still owning the bus,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

own

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

the business, perhaps they're not selling the business, they're selling their, their, investment in the business to other parties. So they're syndicating out that duration risk to get liquidity, pay

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Um,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

their investors

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

then raise more capital and do whatever they will do. So

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

So

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

point is where there's a will, there's a way.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

way.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

And with money, people always find a way to. Figure,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

did you say that was individuals doing that?

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Oh, I'd know there, I mean there, well shoot. Yeah, there is individuals. I've seen a lot of private offerings where I can go log into a website and buy private equity secondaries. Yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Whoa,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

buying their, their,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

their,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

think about it the same way as you'd think about owning a public share of stock private equity groups parsing out their positions in these companies and selling it to accredited investors privately.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

they would

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

they would prefer the liquid cash. Now.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Well, they need to, yeah, for

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Need to,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

operating agreement reason or just practical, I need to get money back to my investors to get more capacity.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

so you're saying that can happen at like the individual, like, man, like managing director level or, and or like a, a.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

I'm just like, like, let's use, you know, I don't know KKR, that they're probably not necessarily doing this, but like, maybe they have, uh. 500 million of in a series of companies, and they wanna half of that share, can parse that up and sell it privately as opposed to listing on an exchange or something like that, you know,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Hmm. Okay.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

positions and then they can get, you know, liquid.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Are, are there PE companies that.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

are

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

built and meant for down markets. So I'm thinking like there's ETFs and then there's like inverse ETFs, which like when the market goes down, they do well and they're just structured in a way to, to perform when there's a down market. Are there PE firms?

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

funds. Yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Yeah. Are they like licking their chops right now?

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

literally probably a fund out there called Contrarian Capital Management. I guarantee I'm almost certain of that. I'm sure

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

Sure.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

I could Google it right now, but I'm not. just know

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

So like there might be those firms out there where they're like, this is, this is our, this is our prime time. And or Rory, you mentioned like

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

a different

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

if you have a different risk premium or different risk profile,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

Some

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

of those might come into play here too, where they might not get as big of the bite of the apple in. A bullish economy because everyone wants like the top rated, you know, um, blue Star or whatever you wanna call it,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

it

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

PE firms. But now, okay, we're willing to take a, on a little bit more risk because we need to deploy this capital somehow. Is that a thing?

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

it? It is. I mean, if you think about, um, Rory and I had worked with, um, lone Star Funds and Lone Star Funds. Certainly at the time that we were there. Their entire investment thesis was, can we find assets? Distressed. Can we buy contrarian? Can we look at, you know, asset liquidation values? How do we look at these investments differently than as a, know, a, a, can we grow this and, you know, get a multiple on an operating

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

they were very contrarian. That was their, that was their key.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Okay, so if I'm like a founder thinking about this, and I was like, I, I wanna partner with PE but I'm, I'm being smart and I'm listening to this podcast. I know the market conditions and so I might

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

keep

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

that in mind when I'm vetting the PE firms. And then the other way around, are PE firms looking for certain types of companies? Are they're looking for different types of companies now or does that remain the same?

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Hmm.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

Um, no, I think there, I don't think it's, I think it's less type,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

it's more situational.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

that these are, that, you know, the. cyclical. So it's gonna be how does this cycle? And, you know, those kind of things. It's, it's gonna be more, it is more, how do I get to a return? That I'm comfortable with, how do I get to, is this an undervalued opportunity that someone else, you know, like Rory said, sometimes they have to raise money for capital calls or other things. There's, you know, issues around fund level debt where they're gonna have to get liquid. So sometimes funds are in a position where they're forced to sell

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

and there's a, you know, that's gonna be one of those where it may be a company that's completely, you know, kind of counter to the current economic trend. Um. Or maybe right in line with the current economic trend, but they're gonna look at it deal, deal by deal and go, Hey, is this an undervalued asset? Do we think, you know, over the next three to five years, typical hold period, we're gonna be able to get a good return on it. And if we can, you know, we're gonna take advantage of the fact that this owner, this founder, this, um, other private equity firm is

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

forced to get liquid. And we're going to, we're gonna jump in and, uh, you know, kind of profit from that opportunity. So.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

So, I mean, we've talked about this before, where a PE firm could sell to another PE firm. Could this be a catalyst for, okay, we're just gonna move our money over to this other PE firm?'cause they're willing to take this on and we're not.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah, and who knows what kind of

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

of

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

deal making there could be under the, you know, behind the scenes. There could be reciprocal agreement to, to buy an asset from that same PE firm under different terms. But, you know,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

you know,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

it's in, it's in the interest of both parties to do a deal on either side, you know,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Yeah.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

it's a small world people, you know, people figure out ways to.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

ways to

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Meet their objectives and a lot of times, you know, similar types of firms have the same objectives and they're in the same sort of macroeconomic situation.

Recession Predictions

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

All right, so prediction, prediction time as we look forward here, tariffs. Do you two think that the situation with tariffs is going to get better, stay the same, or get worse?

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

It'll get better because it can't get much worse.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah, I was gonna say something very similar. Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

this has been, uh, and I've, I've said this to numerous folks. Um, you know, I, I think the current approach to tariffs is, the worst. Piece of economic malpractice since the Hoover administration they also were like, okay, we're gonna be able to do X, Y, or Z and help the, help the domestic economy by increasing tariffs, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, and therefore, you know it's gonna drive the domestic production'cause we're gonna cut off imports. And all that did was just crater the economy. And make the great it, it brought in a Roosevelt administration a new deal, and it really just was nasty.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

is, this is, I hear the exact same rationale for these set of tariffs. And right now, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get the exact same result.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah, without being the history buff, that is, I would say the consumer. US will feel the pain on this for a while. Yeah, we'll be frustrated by prices and things like that for some time.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

The, the only, the only good thing is from, from my seat, um, the president doesn't really have, he, he's not a, like a, died in the wool. He, he's a pragmatist. He's, so if things start going south fast, he'll blame somebody else for it

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

That's right. Yeah. Yeah,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

you know, I'm, I'm kind of counting on that

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

In terms of recession likelihood, what percentage would you say

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

we're

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

gonna be going into? Like, like a hundred percent we're going into recession or like, uh, I give it 25% in the next, next 12 to 18 months we'll be in a recession.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

A hundred

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

It is a hundred percent.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

Matter of fact, we just had a, we had one quarter of negative economic growth last quarter. if you get two quarters of negative economic growth, that's technically a recession to this economist. And so you're gonna end up, I think we've got a hundred percent chance that in the next 18 months we're gonna have a declared recession, two

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Two consecutive quarters,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

of

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

That's right.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

growth.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yep.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Rory?

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

no, I I'm not in any disagreement with Ed on that one. Yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

A hundred percent.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Wow. Is there

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

there's,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

any.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

of the depth of recessions and such like that. So there that I think remains to be seen. And what we have seen in the past is,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

is

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

I guess, you know, uh, there will be intervention if and when that happens in one way, shape, or form, monetary, most likely. Um, so yeah, I think it's, it's, it's, I would say almost inevitable. Yeah.

Economic Outlook and Final Thoughts

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Do you think that last question here. Do you think that America and or other world leaders will be able to get us out of the recession

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

quickly?

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

probably.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

Probably.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah. Relatively quickly. Yeah. Yeah.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Ed's face is, I don't like Ed's face

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

I, I, I'm, you know, the, the lawyer in me is going, so how do you define quickly? Right?

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Right.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Fair.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

it'll, I don't think we'll sink into a depression by any stretch.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

to say, I, what I don't expect is that we're gonna be in a, in a depression where there's no recovery for years. Like there was, after the Great Depression, which really took us World War ii, was, was the catalyst that got us outta the Great Depression was a 10 year, 10 year recession essentially. you know, I, I don't expect something like that to occur because again, I think that the good news in this particular situation is. The American voter votes the economy. And so if the economy sucks, the American voter's going to change the administrations in the, you know, in the next, in the next, uh, cycle. And then, you know, the, the piece of good news is we've got a lot of levers to pull on economic growth. And so as a result, you know, I, I think it's a, you know, nothing major, but I think you could see a recession for three to four quarters.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah, I agree with that.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

don't think

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Okay,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

I don't think it's gonna be a 2008 type

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

No,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

crater.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

no.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Okay. Okay. Any other good news tidbits to leave us on? What's something good happening in the economy

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

In the economy?

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

or in the world? I'll broaden it. Just, just anything good.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Hmm.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

don't wanna leave it on like the downbeat of,

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

we're a

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

a hundred percent gonna be in recess.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah. Well, why do I have to think so hard about, I mean, like why is it so hard for me to come up with something?

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

Long pause here.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

no kidding. I mean, that's

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

the, the, the honest to god truth of it is there isn't a lot I can point to and go, this is just great news. Uh, you know, the, there's, this is a great opportunity that's coming down the pike. I, right now, the biggest thing from, from my seat is like, I kind of said at the, at the beginning. in a position right now, like professionally, where folks who are, you know, in, in consulting, in financial services, in, you know, that where we can help people who are concerned with uncertainty,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

of get them calmed down and get'em strategized for a way through that uncertainty. For folks like, for folks like me professionally. That's great.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Yeah.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

no argument there. I, that's actually, uh, I'm looking kind of positive. Anything that's a little bit shaky provides the, you know, consultant in me a, a good meal ticket. But it's not great. There's not much great for the entire universe.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

True. Yeah. Well said.

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

All right, so it's good for Ed. Um, so take that to heart.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Well, we got our, we got, you know, we got our health and we

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

And Rory. Yeah,

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

know,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

so feel good about that. We do have some levers to pull. It sound like if we go into recession, we have some levers to pull and it might be time to like be a contrarian and look for those opportunities. There's always like a

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

upside

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

or silver lining if you, if you look for it and get creative.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

Alright, private

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

equity experience. We're back baby.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

We are back. It's good to be back. Great to be back. Good to see you both.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

Thanks,

emily-sander_1_05-08-2025_150717

ed. Thanks Rory.

squadcaster-530f_1_05-08-2025_150715

guys.

squadcaster-4i7c_1_05-08-2025_150715

Bye.