Don't Get Too Defensive Yet | 2026 Market Volatility with Ross Mayfield

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Ross Mayfield, an Investment Strategist for Baird Private Wealth Management. Recorded 3/31/26.

Ross shares his macro perspective on navigating a highly volatile and shifting 2026 market. We dig into why corporate earnings are the ultimate line in the sand for maintaining the bull market, the shifting landscape of AI valuations, and why energy has become an essential geopolitical portfolio hedge. We also discuss the "meme-stock-ification" of silver, how to spot a market bottom using the discretionary-versus-staples ratio, and why the biggest risk to equities right now would be the Fed hiking rates into a commodity-driven energy shock.

📈 Topics Covered
• Transitioning into a high-volatility, high-dispersion market regime
• Why earnings stability and guidance dictate the difference between a correction and a bear market
• Evaluating the AI sector: Attractive forward multiples versus broken technical charts
• The self-correcting nature of crude oil demand and energy as a mandatory portfolio hedge
• Gold's "sell the news" reaction and the sudden meme-stock-ification of silver
• The necessity of evolving the traditional 60/40 portfolio with alternative assets
• Using the equal-weight Discretionary vs. Staples ratio ("the best economist on Wall Street") to spot risk-on market bottoms
• The danger of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates into an energy supply shock

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice. 

Transcript

Ross: [00:00:00] over the last couple of years, we have seen a lot of. V-shaped bounces, right? Whether it's policy induced or or otherwise. I don't think you can count on that, but it also makes it very difficult to get too defensive because you can wake up the next day and the headlines have changed and the market is gone and never comes back.

Right? April of 2025 is the perfect example of it, but there are plenty over the last five years where. Yeah. All of a sudden the switch gets flipped and the market goes a hundred percent risk off to a hundred percent risk on. And if you're not, participating in that, then you're having to , buy high basically.

So it makes it really difficult to get too defensive even if, you know every part of your body is screaming. I should be more defensive in this kind of environment.

​Hey there everyone. Dave Keller here with Market Misbehavior and welcome to our latest episode of the Market Misbehavior Podcast. Today we're speaking with Ross Mayfield is an investment strategist at Baird. Um, I've followed Ross's work and have heard very good things [00:01:00] about, uh, him and his expertise.

And I will tell you, you will not be disappointed. Ross knows the markets. He is a great. Sort of macro approach to assessing market conditions. We covered a little bit of everything in this discussion. A perfect opportunity, uh, I think to, uh, you know, think about the investment implications of the, uh, events unfolding in the Middle East.

Uh, thinking about how to navigate through that period. Think about short-term versus long-term corrective moves, and how investors can navigate by being defensive, but also being opportunistic. A lot to uncover, and a lot of quotable moments. Please enjoy this conversation with Ross Mayfield of Baird.

Dave: , Ross, it's good to, good to speak with you. I've, uh, followed your work and followed your comments, and it's great , pick your brain here today. Thanks for coming on the show.

Ross: Yeah. Looking forward to it. It should be a lot of fun.

Dave: listen, I feel like our cup runneth over with the number of different things we could be talking about right about now.

We've got. And I would say to start off with, just the volatility has changed quite a bit in the markets, right? We've gone from. [00:02:00] For periods of 2025, an incredibly low volatile, low volatility kind of classic uptrend phase. And now it's felt like anything, but we're seeing more significant drawdowns. We're seeing swings to the upside even when the market kind of goes risk off. Talk to me a little bit about the volatility that we're experiencing and how does that inform your ability to try to identify strength and weakness across asset classes?

Ross: Yeah, it's a good question. It definitely feels like a bit of a regime change, uh, from the last couple of years even with. The Liberation Day sell off last year, you know, that was, that was kind of a, an isolated event that then once it was rectified, you know, the market kinda continued on. Its low vault uptrend.

and, and I think the interesting thing about this environment is, you know, the headline index as we're speaking at, at its worst was down maybe nine or 10%. If you look underneath the hood, I mean the dispersion within the s and p 500, within the broader equity universe globally, we're seeing some, huge and volatile moves.

And then even [00:03:00] outside of equities, the bond market has seen a lot of volatility, so it definitely feels like. We are kind of entering, what I think of as a classic, like back half of a bull market where there's more dispersion, you know, of what's working and what's not. There's more volatility and it doesn't prevent the, the gains that can accumulate.

But you're a little choos, you have to be a little more patient and things like earnings are driving the car a little bit more. So, , there's been no shortage of all in this environment. You're a hundred percent right about that.

Dave: I won't ask how many sort of bear market phases you've experienced. I feel like my hair's a little grayer than yours, Ross, but I'm, we, we both experienced kind of bear market moves before and this certainly, to me has that sort of feel, right. It, it rhymes with some of those tops. What are some of the indicators or some of the, , evidence you would evaluate? To determine whether this is just another pullback within this nice secular bull market we've been going on for a while, versus something where you really start to think more defensively. Like What would the evidence, , be that that [00:04:00] would tell you one versus the other? 

Ross: Yeah, it's, hard for me at this moment in time to think that this is a true break in kind of a, the secular bull market until we. See earnings and earnings estimates rolling over. you know, I think a market can be very volatile. You can still get 15, 20, 20 5% sell offs that are, you know, mostly multiple contraction, but it's really hard to get into too much deep trouble, , if earnings and earnings estimates are hanging in there.

And, so far the evidence is still there. That, that we're in good shape now. You know, the, the sands are shifting underneath our feet. , But right now we're just looking for kind of the classic. Let's find a short term bottom. Let's get sentiment flush. Let's get some of those capitative selling days.

, And see if we can't then resume trend and get some of that cyclical leadership that we started the year with. , But until the broader kind of earnings and economic backdrop really shifts, it's hard for me to start thinking too defensively. And the other question is, what does that even [00:05:00] look like in this environment?

I mean, in, in this last A lot of the classic defensive stuff or hedges hasn't worked in the way we might've expected to. Staples have been kind of weak. Gold has been a really interesting one to watch, big Runup leading into this and then hasn't provided that defensive property in this, you know, period of volatility.

So, I'm not there yet. And I also think it's worth asking, you know, what are those defensive areas of the market in the back half of the 2020s? 

Dave: no, a number of really good points in there. You mentioned earnings and we're getting ready to go into, you know, the next earnings season here in a couple weeks. To your point I would wholeheartedly agree, right? We haven't seen any real warning signs. It feels like. It is one of those times where the macro picture, which feels dire at times, feels disconnected from earnings which have remained relatively constructive.

What would you be listening for or looking for in this upcoming earnings season that could give you a sense of whether that's still the case or not? I. 

Ross: Yeah, well, two things. I mean, coming into the year, we had the kind of cyclical leadership, the equal weights, [00:06:00] outperforming things like industrials look really good. And you had it confirmed by the, some of the economic data, right? Like the manufacturing PMI had two months in a row of expansion for the first time since 2022.

So on the cyclical side, you're looking for the companies in those areas,, to say that demand is still strong, right? That yes, there can be cost pressures, yes. Maybe the labor market isn't exactly what you want, but is the demand still there? Is guidance still good? And then on the other side is the AI picture.

I mean, we want to see, given the concentration in the market, particularly for the kind of. Passive investors who are very overweight, AI and big tech, , that, that trend is still in place. The big, story of the last two years has been ai and we've gotten away from that this year with some of the geopolitical tensions, some of the words about private credit, some of the, the headwinds cropping up.

But the thing that has driven this bull market since the October 20, 22 lows. Has primarily been AI excitement, ai, [00:07:00] CapEx, and the growth in those sectors. So is that still there and , are they impacted at all by energy bottlenecks? We know that's a big part of the story at this point with the data center build out.

So you just want to see that, you know, we don't have to get double digit earnings growth every year. , We don't have to get profit margins expanding, you know, north of 20, 25%. But we need the stability from earnings to kind of set the floor under the market here, and make sure this is more of just a cyclical kind of sell off or correction, not more of a structural bear market.

Dave: Great points in there, Ross, along the way , you'd mentioned the AI trade, which of course, you know, over the last 12 months, I mean, had been, I mean, sort of the, the call, right? I mean, it was sort of the strength in AI and AI related plays. We started to see that rotation really at the end of last year, into the beginning of this year. In some cases, kind of away from the ai, you know, producers like chip makers into other areas like the, companies actually using AI to build their business and coming out of this period where a lot of those, you know, chip, uh, stocks and others have been [00:08:00] sort of reset, valuations have come down. How do you think about the path out of this , and what gives you confidence or a lack of confidence that we might go back to the AI theme, just kinda resumes where it was, has the downgrade in valuations been enough to make those seem like reasonable bets here based on the, earnings projections?

Ross: I,

I think it, it, it kind of depends. You gotta take it, in two ways, right? So on one hand, yes, in some of the software and AI adjacent names, , even in some of the semi names, valuations have been reset to the point where they do look attractive. I think, I think, you know, forward earnings estimates have barely budged.

You look at, , the IGV, the software ETF is trading at. forward multiple discount to the s and p for the first time in 25 years. , So there, there is a lot of, I think, value there, especially if you're like me, of the belief that a lot of those names are not gonna be as readily displaced by AI as the price action might, , insist on the other hand.

Looking at the charts, I mean, those are some broken charts. [00:09:00] They're gonna take time to kind of find a level, form a base, and then maybe have a chance once positioning and sentiment kinda reset. But that's, that's a real process and that is not the V-shaped rebound that a lot of know, newer investors to the market are kind of used to, especially over the last five years.

So I think those, a lot of those stocks look like values. But that's if you have a time horizon and kind of a stomach for likely higher volatility and a long basic process. So it, it depends on the type of investor you are. I guess If you're a classic value investor, you love it. If you're more of a trend follower, those charts look awful.

So it's, you know, it kind of depends on where you sit.

Dave: I feel like we all need to have a stomach of steel in 2026 here, Ross, to be honest. With you. But thanks for, uh, you know, alluding to the charts. I wholeheartedly agree. I mean, those charts in a lot of ways have gone from some of the best examples of strong uptrends to some of the best examples of, price and momentum deterioration.

, So point well taken. Um, you know, obviously we have to [00:10:00] talk about crude oil. I mean, one area of the market that has remained remarkably strong and if not accelerated, has been energy. We've seen the energy sector outperform pretty much everything else, driven by the conflict in the Middle East. I mean, at this point, right? Sort of late March, we're dealing with headline risk, right? One day to the next. Things are great, it's gonna be over tomorrow. Things are horrible, it's gonna be protracted, and the market seems to be very sensitive to those outlooks. Given that sort of, volatility in headlines, how do you think about , the price of crude oil, which has already, moved around and, and slightly above a hundred dollars a barrel? Where does that go from here? And do you have, do you tend to think in terms of projections about what a reasonable target would be? Or is it more about directionally the fact that it's generally trending higher here?

Ross: To me, it's more just directionally and this whole episode. O has painted a couple of points. , For me, nu number one is I don't think there's a world where crude can continue on an upward trajectory in perpetuity, right? At a certain point, higher oil prices are demand [00:11:00] destroying and, they are , the cure for high higher oil prices.

And that's why one of the biggest risks here, I think, is the Fed hiking into the teeth of an energy shock because. Higher interest rates. The job can basically be done by higher oil prices. I mean, eventually you start to see people spending less because so much money is going towards gas prices, companies tightening the belt because, you know, jet fuel or whatever input costs, , is going up.

And that's especially because this is not just oil, it's, it's that gas, it's a lot of the input costs for a lot of the things that we use in the world. So I, I think. Maybe oil prices can tick up a bit from here if we really,, get back into the teeth of this geopolitical situation.

But at the end of the day, , you eventually get to a point where demand destruction, recession bring oil prices back down. , It's not something that can persist into perpetuity, but on the energy stocks, every time we have one of these shocks, you know, 2022 now, 2026, I think more and more about the importance of.

Energy in a portfolio as basically the only thing [00:12:00] that is a really strong hedge for this sort of geopolitical risk. And that, you know, the s and p, you know, having the energy sector at a two or 3% weight is not reflective of its importance for diversification. you know, again, it's thinking bigger picture and longer term, but the more we have these, the more the world kind of deglobalize and shifts away from the way things worked for 40 years.

I think owning more energy than the, the passive weight, , would give you, is probably gonna be really important. So directionally, it's hard to see energy prices heading much higher from here , and staying higher. , But I do think owning energy is a very, very much more important than it used to be in this kind of environment.

Dave: Oh, such excellent points in there, Ross. And, and it's fascinating what a small weight in the s and p the energy sector is, to your point, given, you know, related to its impact. And I think for so many with, all the move toward green energy and sustainable energy, I think a lot of people have sort of written off mentally. The importance of energy in the economy. I think if nothing else, we're [00:13:00] learning just how central it is to the functioning of so many things. Not just driving our cars and flying around, but just getting goods and things around the, world here. Sticking with the commodity play, I mean, one of the traditional safe havens, if you told me the market was going haywire. Equities were kind of going in a risk off mood. I'd immediately think of a low correlated asset like gold or silver as being an interesting place. Unfortunately, it's not worked particularly well because they already had ridiculously strong runs during an an, an equity bull market in 2025. What do you make of, of things like gold and silver?

Gold and, you know, in particular kind of holding steady, , at this point after pulling back a bit. , But how does that relate to other sort of safe haven plays and how should that fit into a diversification play here?

Ross: Yeah. You know, I've struggled to kind of figure out what the issue is with gold. I, I kind of, wonder if it's not just a. By the rumors, sell the news. Right? Gold had such a run, as you mentioned, and if it wasn't explicitly, you know, identifying in, in the price that we were [00:14:00] gonna get in a protracted conflict in the Middle East, I think it probably was saying something about the state of the world, right?

, The way that this administration wields power, , again, maybe a, a broader kind of deglobalization thing. So whether it was Venezuela or Iran or whatever the next thing is, I think the bid in gold leading into Iran. reflected those kind of anxieties. And then again, once it actually happens and you've baked in such big moves, then it doesn't act the way you expect it to.

, There's also a bit of, you know, the, the retail trader environment has, you know, hopped from asset class and stock to stock, and particularly in silver. You know, I think there was kind of a, a risk on nature to the move that reflected maybe more like. Meme stock ification of silver in particular, , looking at some of the call option volume , and just some of the crazy trading that was going on in that asset.

, But I do think broadly the state of the world, the kind of regime we're in does argue for diversifiers, and particularly [00:15:00] because. Over the last three or four years, we've really seen stocks and bonds start to move more together, right? That correlation has ticked up. And so for the classic 60 40, I think it can still work, but I think that most folks would benefit from evolving that 40 into owning some alternative assets, whether that's real assets like commodities, , and real estate.

, Or you know, some of the things like liquid alts or, whatever it might be. But I think those diversifiers. Play a much bigger role in portfolios for the next 10 years than particularly they would've played in , the 10 years prior to COVID, when basically nothing worked, but large cap tech and diversification was basically just a drag on the portfolio.

Dave: I love that quote, the meme, stock ification of silver. That's a good one. Raul, that's a keeper. I'll, I'll quote you on that. Points well taken, I think in terms of the importance of diversification. It feels like the kind of classic 60 40 model. Probably needs to evolve. And I think most people have sort of done that.

And the good news is for individual investors, and certainly for [00:16:00] advisors, your , ability to access some of those alternate markets , is greater than ever. So I think that's pretty, that's pretty encouraging, so one question , for individual investors that are listening, that. There's a temptation.

I know after the run that we've had, when people are sitting on a lot of paper profits, there's a temptation after that initial down move that we've experienced here to go full risk off, to go in cash to kind of get out of everything. Unfortunately, that usually means you're completely naked for the next recovery, unless you're brilliantly buying some sort of low.

What does it mean? I think at this point, if you're concerned about the markets, , what's a healthy. Defensive sort of way of approaching it, and I mean, cash with kind of a guaranteed interest rate doesn't sound too horrible. Given the volatility we're seeing in other assets, , how does cash fit into that picture?

Is it a decent place to be in some way?

Ross: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, cash is kind of the, the, the oxygen, , of financial, portfolio building, right? It is the liquidity, it is the thing that helps people sleep at night. , It's not a good long-term investment. Right? [00:17:00] And especially if we're talking about an environment where you might see inflation, , which had come down quite a bit, maybe tick back up to three, 4%.

But it is a great place to kind of hide out. I mean there, there is something just about owning, having some cash, having some resilience, having some optionality. You can't really get in any other asset, right? , You think you're owning defensive assets and then all of a sudden, gold or staples aren't performing like you expect 'em to cash kind of always does what you expect it to.

, I would say at, at this point you know, in the sell off, the s and p down again, nine, 10% as we're speaking from all time highs. , Back in January, you know, the average entry, your draw down is 14%. So in some ways this has been about a volatility that has been. Challenging for investors and in other ways, it should kind of be the base case expectation going into any year, right?

Is that we get some of this volatility that the average drawdown, even in non-res recession years is double digits. if that's not baked into your expectations, then you're gonna be pretty miserable by this volatility. But if you expect that coming in, [00:18:00] I think it helps kind of manage this , and makes you be a little more opportunistic.

Maybe putting some cash to work in some beaten up sectors like we mentioned., My final point on this would be particularly over the last couple of years, we have seen a lot of. V-shaped bounces, right? Whether it's policy induced or or otherwise. I don't think you can count on that, but it also makes it very difficult to get too defensive because you can wake up the next day and the headlines have changed and the market is gone and never comes back.

Right? April of 2025 is the perfect example of it, but there are plenty over the last five years where. Yeah. All of a sudden the switch gets flipped and the market goes a hundred percent risk off to a hundred percent risk on. And if you're not, participating in that, then you're having to , buy high basically.

So it makes it really difficult to get too defensive even if, you know every part of your body is screaming. I should be more defensive in this kind of environment.

Dave: Yeah. One of my favorite quotes on that, uh, Walter Deemer, who ran the technical research department at Putnam [00:19:00] Investments in the 19. 70 said, when it's time to buy, you won't want to. Right. Basically, when things look so bad, you can't imagine wanting to buy stocks. That's when you probably should start, uh, thinking about it. But to your point, right, I, I feel like V Bottoms have gone from, and I remember the. Sort of the great financial crisis. Oh nine low. You had this crazy v bottom, all the banks, which were absolute disasters, just ripped to the upside. And in the second quarter of that year, just sort of recovered so quickly, and all of a sudden you realized, oh my gosh, that was at least a significant, significant low. Talk to me about the right side of that V right. you know, Are there any specific. Techniques or evidence that you would evaluate to say, yes, this is another one of those significant bottoms. If I'm defensive, I now need to get reengaged. 'cause I think that's where a lot of people struggle, right?

If they're defensive now, they're really, tentative and hesitant to sort of jump back in 'cause they don't wanna be wrong. , What are some of the ways that you evaluate sort of that right side of the v? Is it, is it more just [00:20:00] keeping a, a long-term perspective or any particulars.

Ross: I'll give a shout out to, our partners here at Baird. Strategas based outta New York. They have a, a great technical team. , Chris Verone Todd. So, and them, and one of their indicators that I, I read about years ago that I now is one of my favorite things in the world is, , equal weight, , discretionary versus equal weight staples.

They call it the, the best economist on Wall Street. And it tends to, not always, but it, it has a pretty good track record of bottoming early and then taking off early, and they, it, it was one of the. Key kinda risk on indicators outta COVID that really signaled all right, something has shifted with with risk appetite in this market.

Even though, to your point about buying when nobody wants to buy, like it's March of 2020, we have no vaccine. Unemployment is great, depression level, , but that indicator started firing. And so we look for some of the risk on. Lots of breadth to the upside. So days where you get, , nine to one, 10 to one breath days, a [00:21:00] lot of, , upside volume.

Those are the kinds of things. And then, you know, you also wanna make sure on the other side that positioning and sentiment is pretty washed out. so, You know, on, on positioning sentiment, looking at the survey data, , looking at things like put calls, looking at things like ETF flows, so you're looking for flush on the bottom.

And then, you know, cyclical leadership starting to poke its head up on the upside that, , discretion every staples is one of my favorite. , That has been a pretty good or a pretty useful indicator, at least in the post COVID era. 

Dave: Oh, thanks for giving a shout out to, uh, to Chris Verone Todd. So, um, I know their work well, the, the guy's at Strategas and that all. Offense versus defense chart. A hundred percent agree. That's a great way to think about a potential recovery and, getting an indicator that investors are going back to risk on very quickly.

Great, great point there. Um, just to sort of wrap up, we haven't talked about interest rates a whole lot. , And I feel like that has in, for a lot of investors, sort of the Fed and what they're doing has be in, in a lot of ways has become secondary because we have this. [00:22:00] Fire hose , of news out of the Middle East, and that's where so many people are focused, I think rightly so.

But everything that we've seen with inflationary pressures with, implied by rising commodity prices, what does that mean for the trajectory of the Fed? And how does that, potential rate cuts and changing expectations, how does that fit into your thinking? You know, looking forward to the second quarter and the third quarter here. 

Ross: I think it's the most important thing in the market right now. I'm typically pretty optimistic. , I don't know if I'm a permeable, but I'm pretty close. I would be very worried if, if the Fed starts shifting the rhetoric towards hikes here. And we've seen some other central banks around the world shift hawkish in the face of an energy spike.

And I think that all the evidence from history suggests that is, , the best way to kind of compound. Issues, right? Again, you're trying to cool demand off higher oil prices already do that. You know, higher oil prices longer term are deflationary because they destroy demand. So if you're the Fed and you're sitting here with a, a labor [00:23:00] market that is not bad, but is definitely unsteady, , you don't need to be aggressively cutting rates.

But I think shifting, from a couple rate cuts this year to potentially hiking. Would be a big mistake and it, I think it is a huge weight on the market here. We've seen even across the S bull market, whenever you get , that move higher in long-term yields a 10 year, you know, to four, five, or north of four five, the market gets in some trouble.

you know, we've seen a, a massively quick shift in odds here from two to three cuts to potentially one to two hikes this year. And I think that's been as big a headwind to the market as oil prices, , taken together. They're a big problem. So I think the Fed is really, really important here.

It's a tricky time to kind of fed watch because they're also undergoing a leadership change. I've been a little encouraged by some of the Fed speak over the last couple weeks. , You know, from some of the governors talking about how they, they like to look through, , energy shocks. They'll be watching inflation expectations, but they're, they know the labor market is important.

Fed watching is [00:24:00] ultimately, you know, uh, exercise in futility, but that to me is the biggest risk, is that the Fed, , maybe misinterprets, you know what, a higher inflation over the next couple of months means hikes into the teeth of that and does more damage to the economy long term, , than needs to be done.

Dave: Ross, this has been awesome. I really appreciate it. I've heard very good things about you and your work, and it's a pleasure to ask you some great questions. I'm gonna quote you on. Higher oil prices are the cure for higher oil prices among many quotable moments in today's discussion. But thanks for coming on the show.

I hope we can talk again down the road, but for now I say thanks for sharing some time with us.

Ross: Thanks so much for having me. It's been fun.

It is true, uh, as RA was recovering from, uh, my conversation with Ross, just trying to think about, uh, you know, some of the key takeaways. I find so many times individual investors often, uh, overreact. and let their emotions get the better of them, particularly during period, during periods of market volatility.

What I really appreciated [00:25:00] from my conversation with Ross at a very institutional, sort of calm and thoughtful and more academic way of, you know, just assessing market conditions and just thinking about. The signal versus the noise. Thinking about the importance of reflecting on the difference between a headline coming out and the short-term market noise versus how it's actually impacting, , companies and their earnings.

And this is not the first guest of mine on the Market Misbehavior podcast that has pointed out, look, as long as companies aren't really. You know, addressing, uh, long-term implications in their earnings and in their guidance. It's probably not, uh, you know, not a lot of long-term impacts to be worried about just yet.

We'll see what happens in the coming weeks, right? As we get to Midap April and we start to get to. First real earning season here for 2026. But for now, I thought, , his observations were very well found, founded real. I mean, it's a lot of quotable moments in there. I think that comment about crude oil, that higher crude oil prices are the cure for higher crude oil prices.

I think that was really well said. , It's [00:26:00] important to think about. You know, a lot of people think, all right, when crude oil goes up, like it, it can just keep going up forever. But I think to his point, there's that natural sort of balance, right? It's driven by supply and demand. That's why when conditions get uncomfortable, , oil suppliers talk about, you know, opening up supply and, and, and adding more supply, which generally will bring, uh, prices down.

Also when prices go up, you find less and less demand, right? Because people don't, you know, they'll make different decisions. I don't know if you've tried to book a flight recently, but if you've done so in the month of March, you into April, you've probably noticed. Flights that did not cost as much a month or two ago are starting to cost a lot more as airlines are picking up on that.

You know, very real impact of higher crude oil prices and higher jet fuel prices. , For them. Great comments about inflation, great comments about valuations, and I really like his thoughts about. , Valuation trends, , for some of the big technology names. After my conversation with him, I dug into, um, the charts, looking at [00:27:00] valuations for companies like Microsoft, uh, ETFs, like the IGV, and I would encourage you to do the same.

If you look at. Valuations and some of those growth, uh, equities and ETFs, certainly, it's hard to argue that they are, they're anywhere near the extreme levels that we saw at the end of last year going into the beginning of, uh, of next year. Great take there on a lot of different, uh, a lot of different parts by Ross.

I hope you picked up on, , his point. He made the point I didn't ask him. He made it. That he focuses also on the charts and on the technicals, and it's hard to justify charts, , that are in confirmed downtrends, right? And so it's, it's about being a contrarian versus being a trend follower.

These are the types of setups sometimes that can look very attractive to contrarians because they're low value valuations and beaten down charts. But as trend followers, which, which I would describe myself as generally being you wanna wait for signs of accumulation, I think that's gonna be the game.

Going from the first quarter into the second quarter is recognizing and acknowledging clear signs of [00:28:00] accumulation when a lot of investors, I think, will probably be thinking more risk off given the deterioration that we observed, uh, at the end of Q1. Great take there by Ross Mayfield, that Barrett. I talked to him afterwards and he agreed,

he'd be willing to come back on the show later this year, so we'll make sure that we circle back with him and see how some of our, uh, discussion here. Uh, related to, uh, actual market events in the coming, uh, in the coming months. By the way, if you wanna learn more about some of the technical analysis tools that you can use to compliment some of the great macro insights.

Uh, by someone like, uh, like Ross Mayfield, how we can think about contrarian value oriented opportunities versus more growth oriented trend falling opportunities and how to think about multiple timeframes from, from the short term to the long term and everything in between. That's where our market misbehavior premium memberships can really help you upgrade your own decision making and your own investment process.

Three great benefits to the premium membership. First off, we'll teach you all about technical analysis and behavioral finance. With our virtual courses, we will keep you honest and [00:29:00] keep you informed along the way with our, uh, our member only reports, like our weekly flight plan and our monthly chart review.

Finally, we'll be able to answer questions and, uh, be a, an encouraging accountability partner with our member, uh, community, which we'll have full access to. It's a great, uh, community of, uh, like-minded investors trying to navigate these markets, and I'm in there every day answering questions and, uh, dropping some words of wisdom and market insights.

All of those benefits can be yours and more if you go to market misbehavior.com/premium. Do me a favor and use the code podcast when you check out. That'll give you 30% off your first 12 months on any plan. Hope to see you as a premium member very soon. That'll do it for today. My name's Dave Keller with Market Misbehavior.

Thanks so much for listening and watching today. Good luck out there with these, uh, turbulent market environments. And remember, it's always a good time to own good charts. Take care folks.