The LOWDOWN

Caribbean GPS Jamming, Chinese ICBMs, Iran Rebuilding Missile Program, Oreshniks for Belarus, and a Look Back at Op JUST CAUSE

Joshua "HOTAS" Patten Season 2025 Episode 1223

This episode assesses intensifying global security pressures driven by concurrent crises in the Caribbean, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, and Europe, with emphasis on great-power risk management under escalation. China is shown maintaining a deliberately bounded posture toward Venezuela during Operation Southern Spear—condemning U.S. actions and safeguarding oil interests while avoiding military guarantees or direct confrontation, prioritizing regime stability and energy security over alliance credibility. In the Caribbean, U.S. and Venezuelan electronic warfare has degraded satellite navigation, protecting military assets but disrupting civilian aviation and maritime traffic and effectively turning a commercial hub into a contested digital battlespace.

The episode also reviews a major expansion of China’s nuclear forces, including new ICBM silo fields near Mongolia, contrasting U.S. concerns over a more assertive posture with Beijing’s stated no-first-use policy amid projections that China’s arsenal could exceed 1,000 warheads this decade. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s advances in airborne invasion capabilities, drone-carrier concepts, and gray-zone coercion are set against expanded U.S. defense spending and Taiwan’s push for asymmetric unmanned defenses.

In the Middle East, Iran’s post-mid-2025 effort to rebuild its ballistic missile program—leveraging external supply chains—raises the risk of preemptive action and maritime retaliation as regional tensions persist. The Western Hemisphere segment details U.S. oil tanker seizures targeting the Maduro regime, prompting international backlash over energy and humanitarian risks. Historical context from Operation Just Cause underscores how prolonged pre-crisis shaping enables rapid regime collapse. The episode concludes with warnings that Russia, constrained conventionally, is pivoting toward hybrid escalation and AI-enabled warfare with partners, accelerating non-kinetic threats to U.S. and allied security.

Thank you for listening to The LOWDOWN.