{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":2.28,"endTime":4.96,"body":"Hello, I'm Dónal Mulligan."},{"startTime":2.28,"endTime":4.96,"body":"And I'm Ciarán O'Connor."},{"startTime":5.24,"endTime":8.32,"body":"And you're listening to Enough"},{"startTime":5.24,"endTime":8.32,"body":"About AI, our ongoing podcast"},{"startTime":8.32,"endTime":11.4,"body":"series covering some essential"},{"startTime":8.32,"endTime":11.4,"body":"themes and topics as we examine"},{"startTime":11.4,"endTime":13.92,"body":"the ways that artificial"},{"startTime":11.4,"endTime":13.92,"body":"intelligence continues to affect"},{"startTime":13.92,"endTime":22.52,"body":"our lives."},{"startTime":13.92,"endTime":22.52,"body":"In the last episode we discussed"},{"startTime":22.52,"endTime":26.76,"body":"reasoning models, new releases,"},{"startTime":22.52,"endTime":26.76,"body":"and the increased ubiquity and"},{"startTime":26.76,"endTime":30.2,"body":"invisibility of AI in all our"},{"startTime":26.76,"endTime":30.2,"body":"lives."},{"startTime":30.72,"endTime":33.64,"body":"Today we're going to take a look"},{"startTime":30.72,"endTime":33.64,"body":"at the release of ChatGPT 5 by"},{"startTime":33.64,"endTime":36.24,"body":"Open AI,"},{"startTime":33.64,"endTime":36.24,"body":"broaden this out to discuss the"},{"startTime":36.24,"endTime":40.32,"body":"limitations some models are"},{"startTime":36.24,"endTime":40.32,"body":"facing as well as calls to make"},{"startTime":40.32,"endTime":43.76,"body":"AI \"non-woke\" - and what exactly"},{"startTime":40.32,"endTime":43.76,"body":"that means."},{"startTime":44.48,"endTime":49.08,"body":"But first, there's been much"},{"startTime":44.48,"endTime":49.08,"body":"debate around the growing level"},{"startTime":49.08,"endTime":53.36,"body":"of finance being pumped into AI"},{"startTime":49.08,"endTime":53.36,"body":"companies, seemingly endless"},{"startTime":53.36,"endTime":57.24,"body":"calls for investment from these"},{"startTime":53.36,"endTime":57.24,"body":"organisations themselves, and"},{"startTime":57.24,"endTime":62.44,"body":"questions about valuations, hype"},{"startTime":57.24,"endTime":62.44,"body":"and disappointment leading"},{"startTime":62.44,"endTime":67.0,"body":"people to ask, are we in an AI"},{"startTime":62.44,"endTime":67.0,"body":"bubble?"},{"startTime":67.76,"endTime":70.96,"body":"So, Dónal, you've been"},{"startTime":67.76,"endTime":70.96,"body":"crunching the numbers, You've"},{"startTime":70.96,"endTime":73.72,"body":"been reading the tea leaves."},{"startTime":70.96,"endTime":73.72,"body":"What's actually happening here?"},{"startTime":74.0,"endTime":77.28,"body":"I have it's, it's - this is a, a"},{"startTime":74.0,"endTime":77.28,"body":"very nerdy thing - but I have for"},{"startTime":77.28,"endTime":80.52,"body":"the last while been keeping uh"},{"startTime":77.28,"endTime":80.52,"body":"semi regularly updated"},{"startTime":80.52,"endTime":82.56,"body":"spreadsheets where I'm looking"},{"startTime":80.52,"endTime":82.56,"body":"at the valuations of these"},{"startTime":82.56,"endTime":85.76,"body":"companies versus uh, as they"},{"startTime":82.56,"endTime":85.76,"body":"release information quarterly"},{"startTime":85.76,"endTime":88.72,"body":"about their, their profits,"},{"startTime":85.76,"endTime":88.72,"body":"where their sales are to see"},{"startTime":88.72,"endTime":90.64,"body":"what's the kind of ratio between"},{"startTime":88.72,"endTime":90.64,"body":"those two things."},{"startTime":90.64,"endTime":93.48,"body":"So I have to give the huge"},{"startTime":90.64,"endTime":93.48,"body":"caveat here that I have no"},{"startTime":93.48,"endTime":97.72,"body":"training in, uh, economics of"},{"startTime":93.48,"endTime":97.72,"body":"any kind, but there's a rough"},{"startTime":98.0,"endTime":100.76,"body":"metric that's useful called"},{"startTime":98.0,"endTime":100.76,"body":"price to sales, where you look"},{"startTime":100.76,"endTime":104.28,"body":"at piles of dollars and euro the"},{"startTime":100.76,"endTime":104.28,"body":"investors are willing to put in"},{"startTime":104.28,"endTime":107.56,"body":"against the future sales that"},{"startTime":104.28,"endTime":107.56,"body":"they hope that that company is"},{"startTime":107.56,"endTime":110.16,"body":"going to make."},{"startTime":107.56,"endTime":110.16,"body":"And you can see what is the, the"},{"startTime":110.16,"endTime":111.76,"body":"kind of proportion between those"},{"startTime":110.16,"endTime":111.76,"body":"two things."},{"startTime":111.76,"endTime":115.48,"body":"And there's sort of set"},{"startTime":111.76,"endTime":115.48,"body":"standards that are fairly usual"},{"startTime":115.56,"endTime":119.12,"body":"for investments that might be"},{"startTime":115.56,"endTime":119.12,"body":"made in tech, which has a, a"},{"startTime":119.24,"endTime":122.12,"body":"bigger cushion for this than in"},{"startTime":119.24,"endTime":122.12,"body":"other kinds of industry."},{"startTime":122.12,"endTime":126.68,"body":"But we are way, way beyond those"},{"startTime":122.12,"endTime":126.68,"body":"norms when it comes to the AI"},{"startTime":126.68,"endTime":128.72,"body":"companies."},{"startTime":126.68,"endTime":128.72,"body":"All of the AI companies, but"},{"startTime":128.72,"endTime":133.4,"body":"some very particularly hugely,"},{"startTime":128.72,"endTime":133.4,"body":"are valued at massive multiples"},{"startTime":133.44,"endTime":136.16,"body":"of what their current income or"},{"startTime":133.44,"endTime":136.16,"body":"even their projected income is."},{"startTime":136.24,"endTime":139.32,"body":"And so we might expect this to"},{"startTime":136.24,"endTime":139.32,"body":"be in the range of, you know, 5"},{"startTime":139.32,"endTime":143.32,"body":"to 10, uh, times, uh, if we, if"},{"startTime":139.32,"endTime":143.32,"body":"we're staying in the kind of"},{"startTime":143.32,"endTime":146.08,"body":"safe old ways of thinking."},{"startTime":143.32,"endTime":146.08,"body":"But when we get into a bubble,"},{"startTime":146.08,"endTime":148.36,"body":"we tend to see huge amounts of"},{"startTime":146.08,"endTime":148.36,"body":"investment being poured into"},{"startTime":148.36,"endTime":151.04,"body":"particular, uh, kind of"},{"startTime":148.36,"endTime":151.04,"body":"companies or entities."},{"startTime":151.04,"endTime":153.92,"body":"And there's been lots of these"},{"startTime":151.04,"endTime":153.92,"body":"bubbles in the past where that"},{"startTime":153.92,"endTime":156.84,"body":"kind of connection of the"},{"startTime":153.92,"endTime":156.84,"body":"valuations that are being put on"},{"startTime":156.84,"endTime":159.16,"body":"the companies, the amount of"},{"startTime":156.84,"endTime":159.16,"body":"money people are willing to"},{"startTime":159.16,"endTime":161.84,"body":"invest becomes totally"},{"startTime":159.16,"endTime":161.84,"body":"disconnected from the amount of"},{"startTime":161.92,"endTime":163.48,"body":"money that that company is"},{"startTime":161.92,"endTime":163.48,"body":"making."},{"startTime":163.64,"endTime":166.36,"body":"That has happened here."},{"startTime":163.64,"endTime":166.36,"body":"We're seeing roughly at the"},{"startTime":166.36,"endTime":168.64,"body":"moment based on the the most"},{"startTime":166.36,"endTime":168.64,"body":"recent figures that I can, I put"},{"startTime":168.64,"endTime":171.08,"body":"together - and I'm happy to share"},{"startTime":168.64,"endTime":171.08,"body":"this spreadsheet in the show"},{"startTime":171.08,"endTime":174.64,"body":"notes - that there are valuations,"},{"startTime":171.08,"endTime":174.64,"body":"more than 100 times in some of"},{"startTime":174.64,"endTime":177.52,"body":"the cases, the revenue of these"},{"startTime":174.64,"endTime":177.52,"body":"companies."},{"startTime":177.52,"endTime":180.88,"body":"So this is usually indicative of"},{"startTime":177.52,"endTime":180.88,"body":"a bubble in the classic sense."},{"startTime":180.88,"endTime":183.8,"body":"So when when economists talk"},{"startTime":180.88,"endTime":183.8,"body":"about this, when they talk about"},{"startTime":183.8,"endTime":186.32,"body":"the \"dot com bubble\" or the \"property"},{"startTime":183.8,"endTime":186.32,"body":"bubble\", these are the kind of"},{"startTime":186.32,"endTime":188.92,"body":"things that they're looking for -"},{"startTime":186.32,"endTime":188.92,"body":"and we are very certainly in"},{"startTime":188.92,"endTime":190.36,"body":"that space at the moment."},{"startTime":188.92,"endTime":190.36,"body":"I can run through some of the"},{"startTime":190.36,"endTime":191.92,"body":"particulars if you want."},{"startTime":190.36,"endTime":191.92,"body":"(Yeah, yeah, please.)"},{"startTime":192.04,"endTime":194.88,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":192.04,"endTime":194.88,"body":"So in looking at the big kind of"},{"startTime":195.76,"endTime":199.36,"body":"expected players in this space,"},{"startTime":195.76,"endTime":199.36,"body":"so we have Open AI, we have XAI,"},{"startTime":199.36,"endTime":202.68,"body":"Elon Musk's company, Anthropic"},{"startTime":199.36,"endTime":202.68,"body":"Perplexity and Google."},{"startTime":203.0,"endTime":206.68,"body":"And of those 5, all of them are"},{"startTime":203.0,"endTime":206.68,"body":"way outside that normal ratio"},{"startTime":206.68,"endTime":209.36,"body":"for where we'd expect the the"},{"startTime":206.68,"endTime":209.36,"body":"price to sales, the amount of"},{"startTime":209.36,"endTime":210.96,"body":"investment versus the valuation"},{"startTime":209.36,"endTime":210.96,"body":"coming in."},{"startTime":211.2,"endTime":213.08,"body":"But some are alarmingly outside"},{"startTime":211.2,"endTime":213.08,"body":"that."},{"startTime":213.4,"endTime":216.76,"body":"And so looking at the numbers"},{"startTime":213.4,"endTime":216.76,"body":"coming from XAI, they're in the"},{"startTime":216.76,"endTime":220.72,"body":"range of 150 to 200 times the"},{"startTime":216.76,"endTime":220.72,"body":"amount of money that it's"},{"startTime":220.72,"endTime":223.04,"body":"bringing in in sales."},{"startTime":220.72,"endTime":223.04,"body":"So this is wildly out of kilter"},{"startTime":223.04,"endTime":225.04,"body":"with where you'd normally expect"},{"startTime":223.04,"endTime":225.04,"body":"investment to be."},{"startTime":225.28,"endTime":229.04,"body":"But similar to that Perplexity,"},{"startTime":225.28,"endTime":229.04,"body":"which is an AI search company"},{"startTime":229.04,"endTime":230.48,"body":"that's got a lot of attention"},{"startTime":229.04,"endTime":230.48,"body":"recently."},{"startTime":230.56,"endTime":232.52,"body":"And I think we'll talk about"},{"startTime":230.56,"endTime":232.52,"body":"them a little bit later when in"},{"startTime":232.52,"endTime":235.12,"body":"the \"non woke part\" of our"},{"startTime":232.52,"endTime":235.12,"body":"discussion, they're at around"},{"startTime":235.12,"endTime":237.72,"body":"120 times in terms of their"},{"startTime":235.12,"endTime":237.72,"body":"evaluation."},{"startTime":237.76,"endTime":240.28,"body":"But it's still very large for"},{"startTime":237.76,"endTime":240.28,"body":"Anthropic or Open AI, the big"},{"startTime":240.28,"endTime":243.56,"body":"players that we're used to"},{"startTime":240.28,"endTime":243.56,"body":"speaking about, it's between 30"},{"startTime":243.56,"endTime":247.52,"body":"and 40 times for, uh, OpenAI"},{"startTime":243.56,"endTime":247.52,"body":"and around about 50 times for"},{"startTime":247.64,"endTime":249.92,"body":"Anthropic."},{"startTime":247.64,"endTime":249.92,"body":"So these are all valuations that"},{"startTime":249.92,"endTime":252.2,"body":"we would not see in normal types"},{"startTime":249.92,"endTime":252.2,"body":"of investment."},{"startTime":252.2,"endTime":254.24,"body":"And these are the kind of things"},{"startTime":252.2,"endTime":254.24,"body":"that usually indicate that"},{"startTime":254.32,"endTime":258.12,"body":"you're firmly in a bubble."},{"startTime":254.32,"endTime":258.12,"body":"And whilst the valuations of"},{"startTime":258.12,"endTime":262.68,"body":"these companies can be a little"},{"startTime":258.12,"endTime":262.68,"body":"bit mercurial, hard to really"},{"startTime":262.76,"endTime":266.68,"body":"actually gauge sometimes, running"},{"startTime":262.76,"endTime":266.68,"body":"at the same time, we do know"},{"startTime":267.36,"endTime":270.6,"body":"hard figures of the losses, the"},{"startTime":267.36,"endTime":270.6,"body":"spend that these companies are"},{"startTime":270.6,"endTime":273.88,"body":"incurring - Perplexity,"},{"startTime":270.6,"endTime":273.88,"body":"for example, uh, generated"},{"startTime":273.88,"endTime":278.2,"body":"revenue of of 34 million last"},{"startTime":273.88,"endTime":278.2,"body":"year, I believe, but burned"},{"startTime":278.2,"endTime":281.32,"body":"around 65 million."},{"startTime":278.2,"endTime":281.32,"body":"So in in that one sense, the"},{"startTime":281.32,"endTime":284.6,"body":"numbers don't seem to add up."},{"startTime":281.32,"endTime":284.6,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":284.6,"endTime":287.56,"body":"And so usually this is what"},{"startTime":284.6,"endTime":287.56,"body":"indicates a kind of a bubble"},{"startTime":287.56,"endTime":290.56,"body":"economy is that these runaway"},{"startTime":287.56,"endTime":290.56,"body":"valuations cause more and more"},{"startTime":290.56,"endTime":291.92,"body":"investment to be made in the"},{"startTime":290.56,"endTime":291.92,"body":"companies."},{"startTime":292.08,"endTime":295.0,"body":"There's no way of recouping that"},{"startTime":292.08,"endTime":295.0,"body":"investment because there aren't"},{"startTime":295.0,"endTime":296.8,"body":"sales coming in."},{"startTime":295.0,"endTime":296.8,"body":"And then at some point, there's"},{"startTime":296.96,"endTime":299.36,"body":"usually a crash."},{"startTime":296.96,"endTime":299.36,"body":"Sometimes people just stop"},{"startTime":299.36,"endTime":301.68,"body":"investing very suddenly, try to"},{"startTime":299.36,"endTime":301.68,"body":"pull all of their money out very"},{"startTime":301.68,"endTime":304.32,"body":"suddenly."},{"startTime":301.68,"endTime":304.32,"body":"And that's what we saw in the"},{"startTime":304.36,"endTime":307.2,"body":"property crash that, you know,"},{"startTime":304.36,"endTime":307.2,"body":"so drastically affected all of"},{"startTime":307.2,"endTime":311.64,"body":"our lives all over the world at,"},{"startTime":307.2,"endTime":311.64,"body":"at in, in around 2009 or so."},{"startTime":312.0,"endTime":315.04,"body":"But I'm interested in an earlier"},{"startTime":312.0,"endTime":315.04,"body":"bubble."},{"startTime":315.08,"endTime":316.8,"body":"And I mean, there's been lots of"},{"startTime":315.08,"endTime":316.8,"body":"them in history."},{"startTime":316.8,"endTime":319.12,"body":"And we can go back to Tulip"},{"startTime":316.8,"endTime":319.12,"body":"bubbles in Amsterdam and the"},{"startTime":319.12,"endTime":323.6,"body":"South Seas Bubble in, in the"},{"startTime":319.12,"endTime":323.6,"body":"1700s, but the Dot Com bubble, the"},{"startTime":323.6,"endTime":326.04,"body":"one that happened, which was"},{"startTime":323.6,"endTime":326.04,"body":"also a tech bubble in the early"},{"startTime":326.04,"endTime":328.92,"body":"2000s - I think is a really"},{"startTime":326.04,"endTime":328.92,"body":"interesting parallel with where"},{"startTime":328.92,"endTime":331.56,"body":"we are now."},{"startTime":328.92,"endTime":331.56,"body":"The same sort of wild valuation"},{"startTime":331.56,"endTime":335.52,"body":"was given to lots of companies"},{"startTime":331.56,"endTime":335.52,"body":"that we have no idea where they"},{"startTime":335.52,"endTime":337.0,"body":"are now."},{"startTime":335.52,"endTime":337.0,"body":"That kind of all fell apart"},{"startTime":337.16,"endTime":340.44,"body":"based on this projection that at"},{"startTime":337.16,"endTime":340.44,"body":"that time, the changing way in"},{"startTime":340.44,"endTime":342.72,"body":"which we might use the Internet"},{"startTime":340.44,"endTime":342.72,"body":"and all of the commerce that"},{"startTime":342.72,"endTime":346.2,"body":"might come with that seems like"},{"startTime":342.72,"endTime":346.2,"body":"this untapped, uh, endless"},{"startTime":346.2,"endTime":348.32,"body":"supply of money that was just"},{"startTime":346.2,"endTime":348.32,"body":"around the corner."},{"startTime":348.56,"endTime":351.24,"body":"And huge amounts of, of, umm,"},{"startTime":348.56,"endTime":351.24,"body":"investment were piled into"},{"startTime":351.24,"endTime":354.4,"body":"companies that caused a bubble"},{"startTime":351.24,"endTime":354.4,"body":"that inflated the stock price of"},{"startTime":354.4,"endTime":356.92,"body":"lots of these, uh, kind of"},{"startTime":354.4,"endTime":356.92,"body":"burgeoning tech companies in"},{"startTime":356.92,"endTime":360.16,"body":"around 2000 and 2001."},{"startTime":356.92,"endTime":360.16,"body":"And very suddenly, once it"},{"startTime":360.16,"endTime":363.08,"body":"became obvious that the money"},{"startTime":360.16,"endTime":363.08,"body":"was not going to be recouped,"},{"startTime":363.28,"endTime":365.44,"body":"they fell apart."},{"startTime":363.28,"endTime":365.44,"body":"And in that particular"},{"startTime":365.44,"endTime":368.44,"body":"case the Dot Com Bubble isn't as well"},{"startTime":365.44,"endTime":368.44,"body":"remembered as the property one"},{"startTime":368.44,"endTime":371.76,"body":"because it wasn't as widespread."},{"startTime":368.44,"endTime":371.76,"body":"It didn't affect as much of"},{"startTime":371.76,"endTime":373.4,"body":"society."},{"startTime":371.76,"endTime":373.4,"body":"Certainly lots of people were"},{"startTime":373.4,"endTime":375.8,"body":"drastically affected."},{"startTime":373.4,"endTime":375.8,"body":"Lots of jobs were lost, lots of"},{"startTime":376.04,"endTime":378.48,"body":"investment that could have gone"},{"startTime":376.04,"endTime":378.48,"body":"elsewhere was, was lost in, in"},{"startTime":378.48,"endTime":380.84,"body":"that period."},{"startTime":378.48,"endTime":380.84,"body":"And, but I don't think it had"},{"startTime":380.84,"endTime":384.0,"body":"the same kind of resonance for"},{"startTime":380.84,"endTime":384.0,"body":"us as, as the more recent one."},{"startTime":384.28,"endTime":387.04,"body":"But I think there are very"},{"startTime":384.28,"endTime":387.04,"body":"strong parallels in what"},{"startTime":387.04,"endTime":390.6,"body":"happened there in terms of an"},{"startTime":387.04,"endTime":390.6,"body":"expectation that a really"},{"startTime":390.6,"endTime":394.76,"body":"rapidly changing tech space was"},{"startTime":390.6,"endTime":394.76,"body":"about to provide riches, enticed"},{"startTime":394.76,"endTime":396.28,"body":"a lot of people in."},{"startTime":394.76,"endTime":396.28,"body":"And I think we're very much in"},{"startTime":396.28,"endTime":399.08,"body":"that same place again."},{"startTime":396.28,"endTime":399.08,"body":"But I think this time, if this"},{"startTime":399.08,"endTime":401.24,"body":"bubble does pop, it's going to"},{"startTime":399.08,"endTime":401.24,"body":"be a bigger pop."},{"startTime":401.28,"endTime":403.8,"body":"And I think we're going to"},{"startTime":401.28,"endTime":403.8,"body":"really see quite drastic effects"},{"startTime":403.8,"endTime":407.12,"body":"if that were to happen."},{"startTime":403.8,"endTime":407.12,"body":"But if we think of the"},{"startTime":407.12,"endTime":411.2,"body":"perception of a bubble popping,"},{"startTime":407.12,"endTime":411.2,"body":"you might be led to believe that"},{"startTime":412.56,"endTime":415.04,"body":"it disappears, it goes away for"},{"startTime":412.56,"endTime":415.04,"body":"forever."},{"startTime":415.32,"endTime":419.6,"body":"But are there any parallels from"},{"startTime":415.32,"endTime":419.6,"body":"maybe what occurred in the kind"},{"startTime":419.6,"endTime":424.52,"body":"of post Dot Com burst in terms of"},{"startTime":419.6,"endTime":424.52,"body":"how these companies or even"},{"startTime":424.52,"endTime":427.8,"body":"maybe the technologies that"},{"startTime":424.52,"endTime":427.8,"body":"became available at the time"},{"startTime":428.0,"endTime":430.52,"body":"didn't quite disappear?"},{"startTime":428.0,"endTime":430.52,"body":"Yeah, yeah, I think it's, it's"},{"startTime":430.52,"endTime":432.84,"body":"interesting to, so just to recap"},{"startTime":430.52,"endTime":432.84,"body":"because some of our listeners"},{"startTime":432.84,"endTime":435.2,"body":"will have been born after the"},{"startTime":432.84,"endTime":435.2,"body":"time that that happened."},{"startTime":435.2,"endTime":437.0,"body":"I mean, I'm old enough that I"},{"startTime":435.2,"endTime":437.0,"body":"lived through it."},{"startTime":437.12,"endTime":439.56,"body":"Uh, but uh, uh, there's, there's"},{"startTime":437.12,"endTime":439.56,"body":"lots of people who won't be"},{"startTime":439.56,"endTime":444.52,"body":"the Dot Com bubble was uh, basically"},{"startTime":439.56,"endTime":444.52,"body":"born out of the, a arrival of"},{"startTime":444.52,"endTime":446.96,"body":"e-commerce to the world."},{"startTime":444.52,"endTime":446.96,"body":"So the idea that lots and lots"},{"startTime":446.96,"endTime":448.84,"body":"of people for the first time had"},{"startTime":446.96,"endTime":448.84,"body":"personal computers."},{"startTime":448.88,"endTime":452.12,"body":"And so from Windows 95 onwards,"},{"startTime":448.88,"endTime":452.12,"body":"more and more people bought"},{"startTime":452.12,"endTime":454.08,"body":"computers."},{"startTime":452.12,"endTime":454.08,"body":"They became something that you"},{"startTime":454.08,"endTime":457.08,"body":"would have in your home and use."},{"startTime":454.08,"endTime":457.08,"body":"I mean, this sounds so obvious to"},{"startTime":457.08,"endTime":459.48,"body":"us now, but was certainly not"},{"startTime":457.08,"endTime":459.48,"body":"the case in the 1990s."},{"startTime":460.08,"endTime":463.04,"body":"And one of the key things that"},{"startTime":460.08,"endTime":463.04,"body":"Windows 95 in particular did,"},{"startTime":463.04,"endTime":466.2,"body":"and later Windows 98, those"},{"startTime":463.04,"endTime":466.2,"body":"early Microsoft operating"},{"startTime":466.2,"endTime":469.6,"body":"systems were, was that they"},{"startTime":466.2,"endTime":469.6,"body":"allow people to connect to the"},{"startTime":469.6,"endTime":472.04,"body":"Internet."},{"startTime":469.6,"endTime":472.04,"body":"So people on their telephone"},{"startTime":472.04,"endTime":475.2,"body":"line at home use their modem,"},{"startTime":472.04,"endTime":475.2,"body":"which made a series of noises"},{"startTime":475.2,"endTime":478.24,"body":"that we all fondly remember if"},{"startTime":475.2,"endTime":478.24,"body":"we grew up in that area and"},{"startTime":478.32,"endTime":481.52,"body":"connected them to the Internet."},{"startTime":478.32,"endTime":481.52,"body":"And people were moving online"},{"startTime":481.52,"endTime":484.24,"body":"and starting to do things"},{"startTime":481.52,"endTime":484.24,"body":"online and the Dot Com bubble was"},{"startTime":484.24,"endTime":487.48,"body":"A huge amount of investment into"},{"startTime":484.24,"endTime":487.48,"body":"companies who were saying \"I am"},{"startTime":487.48,"endTime":490.44,"body":"going to be the purveyor of X"},{"startTime":487.48,"endTime":490.44,"body":"service\"."},{"startTime":490.44,"endTime":493.32,"body":"\"I'm going to be the, the person"},{"startTime":490.44,"endTime":493.32,"body":"who sells...\" whatever it might be."},{"startTime":493.56,"endTime":496.32,"body":"And some of those did survive."},{"startTime":493.56,"endTime":496.32,"body":"Amazon, eBay, these companies"},{"startTime":496.32,"endTime":499.64,"body":"were born in that period, but"},{"startTime":496.32,"endTime":499.64,"body":"hundreds of other ones were also"},{"startTime":499.84,"endTime":502.08,"body":"part of that bubble in the early"},{"startTime":499.84,"endTime":502.08,"body":"2000s."},{"startTime":502.44,"endTime":505.48,"body":"And very rapidly they ceased to"},{"startTime":502.44,"endTime":505.48,"body":"exist."},{"startTime":505.48,"endTime":508.8,"body":"Massive amounts of money was"},{"startTime":505.48,"endTime":508.8,"body":"poured into things like online"},{"startTime":508.8,"endTime":512.88,"body":"pet stores and, uh, ideas about"},{"startTime":508.8,"endTime":512.88,"body":"how society would rapidly change"},{"startTime":512.88,"endTime":515.52,"body":"and the new revenue streams via"},{"startTime":512.88,"endTime":515.52,"body":"the Internet would come in."},{"startTime":516.0,"endTime":518.88,"body":"And very suddenly people"},{"startTime":516.0,"endTime":518.88,"body":"realised, \"oh, we may not recoup"},{"startTime":518.88,"endTime":521.0,"body":"this investment\", tried to pull"},{"startTime":518.88,"endTime":521.0,"body":"their money out of it and it"},{"startTime":521.0,"endTime":522.84,"body":"precipitated this, this crash at"},{"startTime":521.0,"endTime":522.84,"body":"the time."},{"startTime":523.32,"endTime":525.96,"body":"And so you're right to point to"},{"startTime":523.32,"endTime":525.96,"body":"the, the parallels that this"},{"startTime":525.96,"endTime":528.52,"body":"might have with now and whether"},{"startTime":525.96,"endTime":528.52,"body":"there are besides that bubble"},{"startTime":528.52,"endTime":531.0,"body":"just popping and going away,"},{"startTime":528.52,"endTime":531.0,"body":"whether there are longer term"},{"startTime":531.48,"endTime":534.44,"body":"kind of implications."},{"startTime":531.48,"endTime":534.44,"body":"And I think one of the key ones"},{"startTime":534.96,"endTime":538.44,"body":"that makes this a parallel with"},{"startTime":534.96,"endTime":538.44,"body":"the Dot Com bubble is that like then"},{"startTime":538.44,"endTime":541.72,"body":"we are investing very heavily in"},{"startTime":538.44,"endTime":541.72,"body":"infrastructure alongside the"},{"startTime":542.16,"endTime":543.96,"body":"hope that this bubble is going"},{"startTime":542.16,"endTime":543.96,"body":"to make money."},{"startTime":544.2,"endTime":548.4,"body":"In the Dot Com bubble, a lot of what"},{"startTime":544.2,"endTime":548.4,"body":"is now the global communications"},{"startTime":548.4,"endTime":549.96,"body":"infrastructure of the world was"},{"startTime":548.4,"endTime":549.96,"body":"built."},{"startTime":550.04,"endTime":553.68,"body":"There was a huge investment in"},{"startTime":550.04,"endTime":553.68,"body":"fibre optic connections, in"},{"startTime":553.68,"endTime":557.4,"body":"intercontinental cables, in the"},{"startTime":553.68,"endTime":557.4,"body":"sort of foundational elements of"},{"startTime":557.4,"endTime":560.32,"body":"the Internet."},{"startTime":557.4,"endTime":560.32,"body":"And so even though the amount of"},{"startTime":560.32,"endTime":563.56,"body":"money that went in was lost to a"},{"startTime":560.32,"endTime":563.56,"body":"very large degree, even though a"},{"startTime":563.56,"endTime":566.36,"body":"lot of those companies don't"},{"startTime":563.56,"endTime":566.36,"body":"exist anymore and we consider"},{"startTime":566.36,"endTime":569.84,"body":"that a bubble that has popped,"},{"startTime":566.36,"endTime":569.84,"body":"its legacy was that it left us"},{"startTime":569.84,"endTime":572.92,"body":"with a huge amount of"},{"startTime":569.84,"endTime":572.92,"body":"infrastructure upon which the"},{"startTime":572.92,"endTime":575.8,"body":"rest of the Internet and the"},{"startTime":572.92,"endTime":575.8,"body":"social media era was able to"},{"startTime":575.8,"endTime":578.4,"body":"grow and able to flourish."},{"startTime":575.8,"endTime":578.4,"body":"And the same thing is happening"},{"startTime":578.4,"endTime":580.04,"body":"here."},{"startTime":578.4,"endTime":580.04,"body":"So it is possible, of course,"},{"startTime":580.04,"endTime":583.04,"body":"that tomorrow the AI bubble will"},{"startTime":580.04,"endTime":583.04,"body":"pop and there's a lot of"},{"startTime":583.04,"endTime":586.2,"body":"investors might simultaneously"},{"startTime":583.04,"endTime":586.2,"body":"lose faith in these wild"},{"startTime":586.56,"endTime":589.16,"body":"valuation ratios that we just"},{"startTime":586.56,"endTime":589.16,"body":"went through and pull their"},{"startTime":589.16,"endTime":591.6,"body":"money out."},{"startTime":589.16,"endTime":591.6,"body":"But again, they have built a"},{"startTime":591.6,"endTime":595.16,"body":"technology that even if it were"},{"startTime":591.6,"endTime":595.16,"body":"to stop at its current level is"},{"startTime":595.2,"endTime":598.24,"body":"extraordinary in its capability."},{"startTime":595.2,"endTime":598.24,"body":"And we've massive investment"},{"startTime":598.24,"endTime":601.16,"body":"gone into data centres and"},{"startTime":598.24,"endTime":601.16,"body":"- problematic as they are,"},{"startTime":601.16,"endTime":604.28,"body":"especially in Ireland's case -"},{"startTime":601.16,"endTime":604.28,"body":"those things would survive that"},{"startTime":604.28,"endTime":606.52,"body":"bubble in the same way."},{"startTime":604.28,"endTime":606.52,"body":"So I think we're, we're looking"},{"startTime":606.52,"endTime":610.2,"body":"at something that, uh, is"},{"startTime":606.52,"endTime":610.2,"body":"precarious and has a lot of the"},{"startTime":610.2,"endTime":614.04,"body":"same features of previous, uh,"},{"startTime":610.2,"endTime":614.04,"body":"kind of, uh, valuation crashes"},{"startTime":614.04,"endTime":616.8,"body":"that we've seen, but that has"},{"startTime":614.04,"endTime":616.8,"body":"already built a"},{"startTime":616.8,"endTime":620.72,"body":"technology like the Dot Com era"},{"startTime":616.8,"endTime":620.72,"body":"that is going to last beyond it"},{"startTime":620.72,"endTime":623.72,"body":"and has already built a lot of,"},{"startTime":620.72,"endTime":623.72,"body":"uh, the kind of infrastructure"},{"startTime":623.72,"endTime":625.24,"body":"that might last beyond this"},{"startTime":623.72,"endTime":625.24,"body":"period too."},{"startTime":625.92,"endTime":629.44,"body":"Which is quite notable too,"},{"startTime":625.92,"endTime":629.44,"body":"because when you listen to some"},{"startTime":629.44,"endTime":632.96,"body":"of the, I suppose, leading"},{"startTime":629.44,"endTime":632.96,"body":"figures in, in AI, they very"},{"startTime":632.96,"endTime":636.4,"body":"much talk in terms of the next"},{"startTime":632.96,"endTime":636.4,"body":"18 months, the next two years,"},{"startTime":636.4,"endTime":638.76,"body":"the next immediate period, let's"},{"startTime":636.4,"endTime":638.76,"body":"say."},{"startTime":639.08,"endTime":642.04,"body":"But the kind of parallels you're"},{"startTime":639.08,"endTime":642.04,"body":"drawing there, look for a longer"},{"startTime":642.04,"endTime":644.76,"body":"scope of how this technology may"},{"startTime":642.04,"endTime":644.76,"body":"play out, which might be a more"},{"startTime":645.12,"endTime":648.32,"body":"realistic, nuanced way of"},{"startTime":645.12,"endTime":648.32,"body":"looking at it rather than this"},{"startTime":648.32,"endTime":652.28,"body":"kind of venture capitalist"},{"startTime":648.32,"endTime":652.28,"body":"formal world that we're that's"},{"startTime":652.28,"endTime":654.64,"body":"leading to a lot of this these"},{"startTime":652.28,"endTime":654.64,"body":"these kind of over valuations"},{"startTime":654.64,"endTime":657.72,"body":"perhaps."},{"startTime":654.64,"endTime":657.72,"body":"But it's kind of coming down to"},{"startTime":657.72,"endTime":661.52,"body":"it that is this a moment of"},{"startTime":657.72,"endTime":661.52,"body":"truth for for AI companies?"},{"startTime":661.72,"endTime":665.24,"body":"Yeah, this is it - I still"},{"startTime":661.72,"endTime":665.24,"body":"constantly think of a headline"},{"startTime":665.24,"endTime":669.12,"body":"that The Economist had in the"},{"startTime":665.24,"endTime":669.12,"body":"middle of June which said \"AI"},{"startTime":669.12,"endTime":671.04,"body":"valuations are verging on the"},{"startTime":669.12,"endTime":671.04,"body":"unhinged.\""},{"startTime":671.32,"endTime":673.56,"body":"And then the sub headline in a"},{"startTime":671.32,"endTime":673.56,"body":"slightly smaller font underneath"},{"startTime":673.56,"endTime":675.96,"body":"said \"unless super intelligence"},{"startTime":673.56,"endTime":675.96,"body":"is just around the corner.\""},{"startTime":676.4,"endTime":678.6,"body":"And this is the problem is that"},{"startTime":676.4,"endTime":678.6,"body":"maybe it is."},{"startTime":678.64,"endTime":680.84,"body":"And so the hype that you're"},{"startTime":678.64,"endTime":680.84,"body":"talking about there, which you"},{"startTime":680.84,"endTime":683.44,"body":"know, we can very much associate"},{"startTime":680.84,"endTime":683.44,"body":"with figures like Sam Altman,"},{"startTime":683.44,"endTime":686.92,"body":"who is constantly telling us"},{"startTime":683.44,"endTime":686.92,"body":"that, uh, he's \"feeling the AGI\""},{"startTime":686.92,"endTime":688.36,"body":"that it's about to happen at any"},{"startTime":686.92,"endTime":688.36,"body":"moment."},{"startTime":688.72,"endTime":692.16,"body":"That is the the thing that"},{"startTime":688.72,"endTime":692.16,"body":"secures the continuity of this"},{"startTime":692.16,"endTime":694.96,"body":"not popping is that if it is"},{"startTime":692.16,"endTime":694.96,"body":"about to change everything, if"},{"startTime":694.96,"endTime":698.76,"body":"we're going to have some sort of"},{"startTime":694.96,"endTime":698.76,"body":"civilisation-changing moment,"},{"startTime":699.04,"endTime":702.56,"body":"then maybe it is rational to"},{"startTime":699.04,"endTime":702.56,"body":"keep pouring money into"},{"startTime":702.56,"endTime":705.04,"body":"something that's valued at 200"},{"startTime":702.56,"endTime":705.04,"body":"times the sales that it's"},{"startTime":705.04,"endTime":708.36,"body":"bringing in."},{"startTime":705.04,"endTime":708.36,"body":"And so there's a very clear"},{"startTime":708.36,"endTime":711.72,"body":"incentive for the people who are"},{"startTime":708.36,"endTime":711.72,"body":"most centrally responsible for"},{"startTime":711.72,"endTime":714.52,"body":"administering these companies to"},{"startTime":711.72,"endTime":714.52,"body":"keep that hype going because"},{"startTime":714.52,"endTime":716.08,"body":"they need this bubble not to"},{"startTime":714.52,"endTime":716.08,"body":"pop."},{"startTime":716.12,"endTime":719.08,"body":"And so again, we're always"},{"startTime":716.12,"endTime":719.08,"body":"telling our audience to be very"},{"startTime":719.08,"endTime":721.44,"body":"critical in their reading of"},{"startTime":719.08,"endTime":721.44,"body":"what gets said about AI."},{"startTime":721.44,"endTime":725.2,"body":"But it is really important to"},{"startTime":721.44,"endTime":725.2,"body":"see these companies as first and"},{"startTime":725.2,"endTime":729.16,"body":"foremost a money making entity"},{"startTime":725.2,"endTime":729.16,"body":"that needs to sustain, uh, what"},{"startTime":729.16,"endTime":733.36,"body":"is, you know, by any normal, uh,"},{"startTime":729.16,"endTime":733.36,"body":"economic metric, a really"},{"startTime":733.36,"endTime":736.6,"body":"dangerously overinflated level."},{"startTime":733.36,"endTime":736.6,"body":"They need to keep that going by"},{"startTime":736.6,"endTime":742.08,"body":"keeping the hype going."},{"startTime":736.6,"endTime":742.08,"body":"With the mass investment that's"},{"startTime":742.08,"endTime":744.28,"body":"moving towards AI now, I read"},{"startTime":742.08,"endTime":744.28,"body":"recently that it's something"},{"startTime":744.28,"endTime":747.32,"body":"like over half of the level of"},{"startTime":744.28,"endTime":747.32,"body":"investment taking place in the"},{"startTime":747.4,"endTime":751.32,"body":"US, for example, is moving"},{"startTime":747.4,"endTime":751.32,"body":"towards AI, which then raises"},{"startTime":751.32,"endTime":754.36,"body":"questions about, well, what's"},{"startTime":751.32,"endTime":754.36,"body":"not being invested in, what"},{"startTime":754.36,"endTime":758.04,"body":"other areas are being affected?"},{"startTime":754.36,"endTime":758.04,"body":"And I think despite these"},{"startTime":758.04,"endTime":761.88,"body":"discussions of the bubble,"},{"startTime":758.04,"endTime":761.88,"body":"whether it may pop or not, we"},{"startTime":761.88,"endTime":768.88,"body":"are already seeing the very real"},{"startTime":761.88,"endTime":768.88,"body":"effects of AI or AI hype on jobs"},{"startTime":768.96,"endTime":772.48,"body":"and on our economies."},{"startTime":768.96,"endTime":772.48,"body":"And we're seeing companies now"},{"startTime":772.48,"endTime":775.8,"body":"pivoting towards using AI"},{"startTime":772.48,"endTime":775.8,"body":"technology perhaps in place of"},{"startTime":775.84,"endTime":778.72,"body":"entry level graduates and things"},{"startTime":775.84,"endTime":778.72,"body":"like this as well."},{"startTime":778.92,"endTime":781.6,"body":"So I think that creates an"},{"startTime":778.92,"endTime":781.6,"body":"interesting colouring where that"},{"startTime":782.32,"endTime":784.32,"body":"the hype and the discussion of"},{"startTime":782.32,"endTime":784.32,"body":"the bubbles over here, but"},{"startTime":784.32,"endTime":787.12,"body":"there's also very real material"},{"startTime":784.32,"endTime":787.12,"body":"effects already happening"},{"startTime":787.12,"endTime":788.76,"body":"because of this."},{"startTime":787.12,"endTime":788.76,"body":"I agree completely."},{"startTime":788.76,"endTime":792.24,"body":"I think as I was saying there,"},{"startTime":788.76,"endTime":792.24,"body":"even if this were to disappear"},{"startTime":792.24,"endTime":794.4,"body":"tomorrow in terms of the"},{"startTime":792.24,"endTime":794.4,"body":"investment and even if these"},{"startTime":794.4,"endTime":799.4,"body":"major companies were to, to"},{"startTime":794.4,"endTime":799.4,"body":"falter where we already are at"},{"startTime":799.4,"endTime":801.96,"body":"the, the capability the"},{"startTime":799.4,"endTime":801.96,"body":"technology already has is"},{"startTime":801.96,"endTime":804.68,"body":"already transformative."},{"startTime":801.96,"endTime":804.68,"body":"So yes, AGI might be around the"},{"startTime":804.68,"endTime":806.84,"body":"corner if we're listening to"},{"startTime":804.68,"endTime":806.84,"body":"Sam Altman, but might be many"},{"startTime":806.84,"endTime":809.32,"body":"years from now, if we're"},{"startTime":806.84,"endTime":809.32,"body":"listening to, to other profits"},{"startTime":809.32,"endTime":812.8,"body":"in this space, but already the"},{"startTime":809.32,"endTime":812.8,"body":"capability of the models that"},{"startTime":812.8,"endTime":816.04,"body":"are, you know, made available by"},{"startTime":812.8,"endTime":816.04,"body":"those big companies can displace"},{"startTime":816.04,"endTime":819.36,"body":"jobs - and is doing so."},{"startTime":816.04,"endTime":819.36,"body":"So we're seeing this, uh, kind"},{"startTime":819.36,"endTime":820.92,"body":"of disruption of the jobs"},{"startTime":819.36,"endTime":820.92,"body":"market."},{"startTime":821.24,"endTime":823.92,"body":"It's been happening earlier in"},{"startTime":821.24,"endTime":823.92,"body":"some fields and others."},{"startTime":823.92,"endTime":826.04,"body":"We alluded to this even last"},{"startTime":823.92,"endTime":826.04,"body":"year we were seeing the"},{"startTime":826.04,"endTime":829.08,"body":"beginnings of this, uh, in jobs"},{"startTime":826.04,"endTime":829.08,"body":"related to coding, for example."},{"startTime":829.08,"endTime":831.08,"body":"I mean, that has utterly,"},{"startTime":829.08,"endTime":831.08,"body":"utterly changed now."},{"startTime":831.4,"endTime":835.56,"body":"And so this is really, it's a"},{"startTime":831.4,"endTime":835.56,"body":"deep period of uncertainty for"},{"startTime":835.56,"endTime":838.68,"body":"people."},{"startTime":835.56,"endTime":838.68,"body":"And I always think at this time"},{"startTime":838.68,"endTime":841.72,"body":"of year, with the new semester"},{"startTime":838.68,"endTime":841.72,"body":"coming up of new students coming"},{"startTime":841.72,"endTime":844.32,"body":"in, and you know, how those"},{"startTime":841.72,"endTime":844.32,"body":"students, when they were filling"},{"startTime":844.32,"endTime":847.6,"body":"out their forms for where to go"},{"startTime":844.32,"endTime":847.6,"body":"to university and what courses"},{"startTime":847.6,"endTime":849.8,"body":"they might pick, the anxiety"},{"startTime":847.6,"endTime":849.8,"body":"they must be feeling at the"},{"startTime":849.8,"endTime":853.6,"body":"moment must be very intense in"},{"startTime":849.8,"endTime":853.6,"body":"thinking, well, should I even"},{"startTime":853.6,"endTime":855.56,"body":"study this subject?"},{"startTime":853.6,"endTime":855.56,"body":"Are there going to be jobs at"},{"startTime":855.56,"endTime":857.16,"body":"the end of it?"},{"startTime":855.56,"endTime":857.16,"body":"And for people in jobs in"},{"startTime":857.16,"endTime":859.84,"body":"certain areas, that's already"},{"startTime":857.16,"endTime":859.84,"body":"very obvious that their future"},{"startTime":859.84,"endTime":862.92,"body":"might be precarious too."},{"startTime":859.84,"endTime":862.92,"body":"Yeah, that's, that's an"},{"startTime":862.92,"endTime":866.08,"body":"interesting place to come in"},{"startTime":862.92,"endTime":866.08,"body":"because only last week I was"},{"startTime":866.08,"endTime":869.16,"body":"listening to the radio and there"},{"startTime":866.08,"endTime":869.16,"body":"was a a prominent commentator on"},{"startTime":869.16,"endTime":871.4,"body":"and he was taking questions from"},{"startTime":869.16,"endTime":871.4,"body":"from listeners."},{"startTime":871.6,"endTime":875.24,"body":"And one of the questions was a"},{"startTime":871.6,"endTime":875.24,"body":"parent asking whether their"},{"startTime":875.24,"endTime":878.88,"body":"child who was planning to study"},{"startTime":875.24,"endTime":878.88,"body":"radiography in university should"},{"startTime":878.88,"endTime":881.28,"body":"continue down that course"},{"startTime":878.88,"endTime":881.28,"body":"because of the possible"},{"startTime":881.28,"endTime":883.72,"body":"displacement of AI."},{"startTime":881.28,"endTime":883.72,"body":"And the the commentator on the"},{"startTime":883.72,"endTime":886.32,"body":"radio said, well, actually he"},{"startTime":883.72,"endTime":886.32,"body":"was quite candid."},{"startTime":886.32,"endTime":888.6,"body":"He said, \"actually, I might, I"},{"startTime":886.32,"endTime":888.6,"body":"might look at that one again"},{"startTime":888.6,"endTime":891.04,"body":"and, and maybe pivot in a"},{"startTime":888.6,"endTime":891.04,"body":"different direction because that"},{"startTime":891.04,"endTime":893.4,"body":"could be one in industry that is"},{"startTime":891.04,"endTime":893.4,"body":"massively disrupted.\""},{"startTime":893.8,"endTime":896.68,"body":"There's other ways too, in which"},{"startTime":893.8,"endTime":896.68,"body":"this, these anxieties are"},{"startTime":896.68,"endTime":899.12,"body":"beginning to crystallise and to,"},{"startTime":896.68,"endTime":899.12,"body":"to materialise too."},{"startTime":899.12,"endTime":902.84,"body":"I mean, the, the, the AI Oireachtas"},{"startTime":899.12,"endTime":902.84,"body":"committee that's been, umm,"},{"startTime":903.12,"endTime":905.8,"body":"started in the last couple of"},{"startTime":903.12,"endTime":905.8,"body":"months here heard from the AI"},{"startTime":905.8,"endTime":909.24,"body":"Advisory Council of Ireland"},{"startTime":905.8,"endTime":909.24,"body":"recently of expectant job losses"},{"startTime":909.24,"endTime":910.84,"body":"in different sectors that might"},{"startTime":909.24,"endTime":910.84,"body":"be impacted."},{"startTime":910.84,"endTime":916.56,"body":"First and foremost, Dublin has a"},{"startTime":910.84,"endTime":916.56,"body":"new AI tour guide named Brendan"},{"startTime":917.16,"endTime":920.0,"body":"who, uh, will, will guide you"},{"startTime":917.16,"endTime":920.0,"body":"around the city based on your"},{"startTime":920.0,"endTime":922.0,"body":"location data and these kinds of"},{"startTime":920.0,"endTime":922.0,"body":"inferences."},{"startTime":922.0,"endTime":924.92,"body":"But at the same time, that has"},{"startTime":922.0,"endTime":924.92,"body":"sparked criticism from actual"},{"startTime":924.92,"endTime":928.32,"body":"historians and tour guides in"},{"startTime":924.92,"endTime":928.32,"body":"the city whose jobs may be put"},{"startTime":928.32,"endTime":930.44,"body":"out because of this new"},{"startTime":928.32,"endTime":930.44,"body":"technology."},{"startTime":930.44,"endTime":933.56,"body":"Uh, and, and whether or not the,"},{"startTime":930.44,"endTime":933.56,"body":"the tour guide really gets the"},{"startTime":933.56,"endTime":936.88,"body":"nuance of Dublin, I believe he"},{"startTime":933.56,"endTime":936.88,"body":"called Oscar Wilde the G.O.A.T."},{"startTime":936.88,"endTime":940.08,"body":"Uh."},{"startTime":936.88,"endTime":940.08,"body":"God, yeah, I, I saw some, some"},{"startTime":940.08,"endTime":942.64,"body":"video footage of that AI tour"},{"startTime":940.08,"endTime":942.64,"body":"guide and it was a little, but,"},{"startTime":942.64,"endTime":944.4,"body":"uh, insufferable alright."},{"startTime":944.4,"endTime":947.52,"body":"But yeah, I mean, we talked to"},{"startTime":944.4,"endTime":947.52,"body":"again in - in our first series"},{"startTime":947.52,"endTime":949.56,"body":"when we were looking at some of"},{"startTime":947.52,"endTime":949.56,"body":"the themes in a bit more"},{"startTime":949.56,"endTime":952.0,"body":"foundational detail -"},{"startTime":949.56,"endTime":952.0,"body":"we compared some of what's going"},{"startTime":952.0,"endTime":954.52,"body":"on to the Luddites and the"},{"startTime":952.0,"endTime":954.52,"body":"Saboteurs."},{"startTime":954.52,"endTime":957.8,"body":"The previous kind of eras when"},{"startTime":954.52,"endTime":957.8,"body":"vast technological change scared"},{"startTime":957.8,"endTime":959.92,"body":"people and their jobs and they"},{"startTime":957.8,"endTime":959.92,"body":"began to, to kind of fight"},{"startTime":959.92,"endTime":961.72,"body":"against the technological change"},{"startTime":959.92,"endTime":961.72,"body":"that was coming."},{"startTime":962.04,"endTime":963.48,"body":"And we saw that with the tour"},{"startTime":962.04,"endTime":963.48,"body":"guides."},{"startTime":963.48,"endTime":966.04,"body":"I mean, they did the equivalent"},{"startTime":963.48,"endTime":966.04,"body":"of throwing their, their shoe"},{"startTime":966.04,"endTime":968.96,"body":"into the, the loom in that case."},{"startTime":966.04,"endTime":968.96,"body":"And successfully, I think I, I"},{"startTime":968.96,"endTime":971.08,"body":"don't think the Dublin City"},{"startTime":968.96,"endTime":971.08,"body":"Council is going forward with"},{"startTime":971.6,"endTime":975.84,"body":"uncanny creepy Brandon and his,"},{"startTime":971.6,"endTime":975.84,"body":"his, uh, his digital tours, Umm,"},{"startTime":975.84,"endTime":977.2,"body":"but we're going to see that"},{"startTime":975.84,"endTime":977.2,"body":"increasingly."},{"startTime":977.32,"endTime":979.88,"body":"I mean, people are rightly"},{"startTime":977.32,"endTime":979.88,"body":"worried that their, their jobs"},{"startTime":979.88,"endTime":981.68,"body":"and their job prospects are, are"},{"startTime":979.88,"endTime":981.68,"body":"going to change."},{"startTime":981.68,"endTime":983.88,"body":"I think we're going to see that"},{"startTime":981.68,"endTime":983.88,"body":"in lots of different areas."},{"startTime":983.92,"endTime":988.48,"body":"And it's very difficult for us"},{"startTime":983.92,"endTime":988.48,"body":"to advise those students or to,"},{"startTime":988.56,"endTime":992.88,"body":"to umm, you know, foresee where"},{"startTime":988.56,"endTime":992.88,"body":"the biggest kind of layoffs or"},{"startTime":992.88,"endTime":996.48,"body":"changes or redundancies or, you"},{"startTime":992.88,"endTime":996.48,"body":"know, complete rewriting of"},{"startTime":996.68,"endTime":1000.0,"body":"types of career might be."},{"startTime":996.68,"endTime":1000.0,"body":"And despite all the"},{"startTime":1000.0,"endTime":1003.2,"body":"conversations about anxieties"},{"startTime":1000.0,"endTime":1003.2,"body":"and potential displacements,"},{"startTime":1003.44,"endTime":1005.84,"body":"these companies are still"},{"startTime":1003.44,"endTime":1005.84,"body":"forging ahead, releasing new"},{"startTime":1005.84,"endTime":1007.56,"body":"models, releasing new"},{"startTime":1005.84,"endTime":1007.56,"body":"technologies."},{"startTime":1008.12,"endTime":1011.84,"body":"The biggest one, perhaps since"},{"startTime":1008.12,"endTime":1011.84,"body":"we last spoke has been the"},{"startTime":1011.84,"endTime":1015.52,"body":"release recently of OpenAI's"},{"startTime":1011.84,"endTime":1015.52,"body":"ChatGPT 5."},{"startTime":1016.12,"endTime":1020.36,"body":"Umm, much hype, much discussion."},{"startTime":1016.12,"endTime":1020.36,"body":"It's been out now for a little"},{"startTime":1020.36,"endTime":1023.04,"body":"bit of time."},{"startTime":1020.36,"endTime":1023.04,"body":"What's been the reaction to this"},{"startTime":1023.04,"endTime":1025.04,"body":"tunnel?"},{"startTime":1023.04,"endTime":1025.04,"body":"Yeah so this is an interesting"},{"startTime":1025.04,"endTime":1028.64,"body":"one because the reaction is"},{"startTime":1025.04,"endTime":1028.64,"body":"fairly negative in a lot of the"},{"startTime":1028.68,"endTime":1030.92,"body":"the Tech Press."},{"startTime":1028.68,"endTime":1030.92,"body":"Umm one of the things that's"},{"startTime":1030.92,"endTime":1033.0,"body":"happened there is that this is"},{"startTime":1030.92,"endTime":1033.0,"body":"not the only model that's been"},{"startTime":1033.0,"endTime":1034.92,"body":"released recently."},{"startTime":1033.0,"endTime":1034.92,"body":"It's just the one that everyone"},{"startTime":1034.92,"endTime":1038.119,"body":"looked to because of the hype"},{"startTime":1034.92,"endTime":1038.119,"body":"and an interesting strategy"},{"startTime":1038.119,"endTime":1040.319,"body":"perhaps that some of the other"},{"startTime":1038.119,"endTime":1040.319,"body":"companies have taken is to"},{"startTime":1040.599,"endTime":1043.8,"body":"quietly release iterations on"},{"startTime":1040.599,"endTime":1043.8,"body":"their models not to give it a"},{"startTime":1043.8,"endTime":1048.0,"body":"new model number, but maybe it"},{"startTime":1043.8,"endTime":1048.0,"body":"went from a 3.2 to a 3.3 umm and"},{"startTime":1048.0,"endTime":1050.12,"body":"so there's there's kind of"},{"startTime":1048.0,"endTime":1050.12,"body":"iterative improvement happening"},{"startTime":1050.12,"endTime":1052.4,"body":"across the board."},{"startTime":1050.12,"endTime":1052.4,"body":"So all of the models are making"},{"startTime":1052.4,"endTime":1057.04,"body":"advancements, but uh, in OpenAI's"},{"startTime":1052.4,"endTime":1057.04,"body":"case, ChatGPT has now"},{"startTime":1057.04,"endTime":1060.12,"body":"released model 5 and they"},{"startTime":1057.04,"endTime":1060.12,"body":"usually use the number the"},{"startTime":1060.12,"endTime":1063.48,"body":"change from 4 to 5 or"},{"startTime":1060.12,"endTime":1063.48,"body":"3 to 4 uh, to indicate a"},{"startTime":1063.48,"endTime":1066.88,"body":"huge leap in capability and Sam"},{"startTime":1063.48,"endTime":1066.88,"body":"Altman, who we've already"},{"startTime":1066.88,"endTime":1070.2,"body":"mentioned as a constant master"},{"startTime":1066.88,"endTime":1070.2,"body":"of hype, has been hyping this"},{"startTime":1070.2,"endTime":1071.8,"body":"up."},{"startTime":1070.2,"endTime":1071.8,"body":"And so I think a lot of what's"},{"startTime":1071.8,"endTime":1075.56,"body":"happened with the, the quite"},{"startTime":1071.8,"endTime":1075.56,"body":"subdued - and in some places"},{"startTime":1075.56,"endTime":1078.6,"body":"negative - reaction to it is that"},{"startTime":1075.56,"endTime":1078.6,"body":"people are disappointed based on"},{"startTime":1078.6,"endTime":1080.88,"body":"that hype."},{"startTime":1078.6,"endTime":1080.88,"body":"So a lot of the people who are"},{"startTime":1080.88,"endTime":1083.92,"body":"making those comments are the"},{"startTime":1080.88,"endTime":1083.92,"body":"Tech Press are kind of power"},{"startTime":1083.92,"endTime":1086.48,"body":"users of these, uh, sort of"},{"startTime":1083.92,"endTime":1086.48,"body":"services in the first place."},{"startTime":1086.76,"endTime":1088.8,"body":"And for them, it isn't a huge"},{"startTime":1086.76,"endTime":1088.8,"body":"sea change."},{"startTime":1089.2,"endTime":1093.2,"body":"And OpenAI has kind of set the"},{"startTime":1089.2,"endTime":1093.2,"body":"bar high for itself because its"},{"startTime":1093.24,"endTime":1097.72,"body":"own leap, especially from GPT 2"},{"startTime":1093.24,"endTime":1097.72,"body":"to 3 was so vast in terms of"},{"startTime":1097.72,"endTime":1099.76,"body":"what that could do."},{"startTime":1097.72,"endTime":1099.76,"body":"And even from 3 to 4,"},{"startTime":1099.76,"endTime":1101.96,"body":"when some of those \"thinking"},{"startTime":1099.76,"endTime":1101.96,"body":"models\" were brought in - we"},{"startTime":1101.96,"endTime":1105.32,"body":"talked about that last year -"},{"startTime":1101.96,"endTime":1105.32,"body":"there was a big kind of change"},{"startTime":1105.32,"endTime":1107.24,"body":"in the scope and capability that"},{"startTime":1105.32,"endTime":1107.24,"body":"it had."},{"startTime":1107.64,"endTime":1110.16,"body":"The move from 4 to 5 was not as"},{"startTime":1107.64,"endTime":1110.16,"body":"evident."},{"startTime":1110.16,"endTime":1113.4,"body":"It's certainly more capable and,"},{"startTime":1110.16,"endTime":1113.4,"body":"and there are various"},{"startTime":1113.6,"endTime":1117.44,"body":"improvements in terms of, of"},{"startTime":1113.6,"endTime":1117.44,"body":"some of the depth of interaction"},{"startTime":1117.44,"endTime":1119.56,"body":"it can do."},{"startTime":1117.44,"endTime":1119.56,"body":"And it's, it's kind of deeper"},{"startTime":1119.56,"endTime":1122.84,"body":"thinking stages, but a lot of"},{"startTime":1119.56,"endTime":1122.84,"body":"the decisions that they made"},{"startTime":1122.84,"endTime":1126.2,"body":"around its release have, uh,"},{"startTime":1122.84,"endTime":1126.2,"body":"kind of backfired on them."},{"startTime":1126.4,"endTime":1130.04,"body":"One of the key ones I think is"},{"startTime":1126.4,"endTime":1130.04,"body":"that they took away the, uh, for"},{"startTime":1130.04,"endTime":1132.72,"body":"paid users, that ability to"},{"startTime":1130.04,"endTime":1132.72,"body":"choose between lots of different"},{"startTime":1132.72,"endTime":1134.2,"body":"models."},{"startTime":1132.72,"endTime":1134.2,"body":"So their available models were"},{"startTime":1134.2,"endTime":1135.96,"body":"in a drop down at the top of the"},{"startTime":1134.2,"endTime":1135.96,"body":"window."},{"startTime":1136.36,"endTime":1139.0,"body":"And, uh, it was a little bit"},{"startTime":1136.36,"endTime":1139.0,"body":"tricky because often, I mean, I"},{"startTime":1139.0,"endTime":1141.12,"body":"found this myself if I sometimes"},{"startTime":1139.0,"endTime":1141.12,"body":"use it, I wasn't quite sure"},{"startTime":1141.12,"endTime":1143.4,"body":"which one to choose."},{"startTime":1141.12,"endTime":1143.4,"body":"And I sort of wildly made a"},{"startTime":1143.4,"endTime":1145.48,"body":"guess sometimes."},{"startTime":1143.4,"endTime":1145.48,"body":"And so they said, well, we'll"},{"startTime":1145.48,"endTime":1147.64,"body":"make it easier for you."},{"startTime":1145.48,"endTime":1147.64,"body":"We'll look at your question."},{"startTime":1147.64,"endTime":1149.76,"body":"And then we'll, based on your"},{"startTime":1147.64,"endTime":1149.76,"body":"question, divert it to the"},{"startTime":1149.76,"endTime":1153.72,"body":"appropriate version, either 5,"},{"startTime":1149.76,"endTime":1153.72,"body":"the kind of simple version of"},{"startTime":1153.72,"endTime":1156.36,"body":"5, which will have some"},{"startTime":1153.72,"endTime":1156.36,"body":"improvements, or a kind of more"},{"startTime":1156.36,"endTime":1158.96,"body":"thinking version of 5 that"},{"startTime":1156.36,"endTime":1158.96,"body":"will spend longer answering your"},{"startTime":1158.96,"endTime":1160.88,"body":"question, do some of the"},{"startTime":1158.96,"endTime":1160.88,"body":"reasoning that we mentioned."},{"startTime":1161.32,"endTime":1164.28,"body":"And so they hoped, I think, that"},{"startTime":1161.32,"endTime":1164.28,"body":"that would make it intuitive to"},{"startTime":1164.28,"endTime":1167.28,"body":"use and that people would find"},{"startTime":1164.28,"endTime":1167.28,"body":"it a kind of smoother process."},{"startTime":1167.72,"endTime":1171.12,"body":"Many people were angry because"},{"startTime":1167.72,"endTime":1171.12,"body":"they had particular workflows,"},{"startTime":1171.12,"endTime":1173.8,"body":"they used a particular model,"},{"startTime":1171.12,"endTime":1173.8,"body":"they had a particular almost"},{"startTime":1173.8,"endTime":1176.4,"body":"relationship in many cases with"},{"startTime":1173.8,"endTime":1176.4,"body":"certain models, people have"},{"startTime":1176.4,"endTime":1179.44,"body":"those kind of parasocial"},{"startTime":1176.4,"endTime":1179.44,"body":"relations and lots of cases."},{"startTime":1179.44,"endTime":1182.6,"body":"And they said, Oh no, my, you"},{"startTime":1179.44,"endTime":1182.6,"body":"know, the ChatGPT that knew me"},{"startTime":1182.6,"endTime":1185.64,"body":"and that conversed with me daily"},{"startTime":1182.6,"endTime":1185.64,"body":"has now been lobotomised and has"},{"startTime":1185.64,"endTime":1189.72,"body":"been changed in some way or it"},{"startTime":1185.64,"endTime":1189.72,"body":"isn't as verbose in its"},{"startTime":1189.72,"endTime":1190.76,"body":"response."},{"startTime":1189.72,"endTime":1190.76,"body":"It doesn't talk to me."},{"startTime":1190.76,"endTime":1192.16,"body":"It doesn't seem to have the same"},{"startTime":1190.76,"endTime":1192.16,"body":"personality."},{"startTime":1192.16,"endTime":1195.0,"body":"So there was that kind of"},{"startTime":1192.16,"endTime":1195.0,"body":"criticism and but there was also"},{"startTime":1195.0,"endTime":1198.24,"body":"criticism from people who just"},{"startTime":1195.0,"endTime":1198.24,"body":"expected that sea change."},{"startTime":1198.24,"endTime":1202.28,"body":"And then so maybe some slight"},{"startTime":1198.24,"endTime":1202.28,"body":"improvements, but nothing"},{"startTime":1202.28,"endTime":1204.36,"body":"terribly discernible."},{"startTime":1202.28,"endTime":1204.36,"body":"And I think that's really"},{"startTime":1204.36,"endTime":1205.8,"body":"important."},{"startTime":1204.36,"endTime":1205.8,"body":"I think we're seeing there one"},{"startTime":1205.8,"endTime":1209.64,"body":"of the effects that that hype"},{"startTime":1205.8,"endTime":1209.64,"body":"machine has when you know, it's"},{"startTime":1209.64,"endTime":1211.52,"body":"it's not met in the in the way"},{"startTime":1209.64,"endTime":1211.52,"body":"that's expected."},{"startTime":1212.0,"endTime":1214.44,"body":"And I think it's also important"},{"startTime":1212.0,"endTime":1214.44,"body":"to say that if you're someone"},{"startTime":1214.44,"endTime":1217.56,"body":"who has been using."},{"startTime":1214.44,"endTime":1217.56,"body":"Chachi PT's free version up till"},{"startTime":1217.56,"endTime":1220.4,"body":"now, you probably will see a"},{"startTime":1217.56,"endTime":1220.4,"body":"bigger change than a lot of the"},{"startTime":1220.4,"endTime":1221.76,"body":"people who are writing that tech"},{"startTime":1220.4,"endTime":1221.76,"body":"press."},{"startTime":1221.96,"endTime":1224.6,"body":"There are people like ourselves"},{"startTime":1221.96,"endTime":1224.6,"body":"who maybe have used a paid"},{"startTime":1224.6,"endTime":1227.4,"body":"version of it at some point or"},{"startTime":1224.6,"endTime":1227.4,"body":"have an experience across lots"},{"startTime":1227.4,"endTime":1230.36,"body":"of different models are maybe up"},{"startTime":1227.4,"endTime":1230.36,"body":"to date in how they work and"},{"startTime":1230.36,"endTime":1232.56,"body":"have you know, used reasoning"},{"startTime":1230.36,"endTime":1232.56,"body":"models quite a bit."},{"startTime":1232.84,"endTime":1235.24,"body":"Lots of people who've used the"},{"startTime":1232.84,"endTime":1235.24,"body":"free version of Chachi PT"},{"startTime":1235.48,"endTime":1239.08,"body":"weren't on the higher end of"},{"startTime":1235.48,"endTime":1239.08,"body":"Chachi PT-4 anyway."},{"startTime":1239.08,"endTime":1241.44,"body":"They weren't seeing it's, it's"},{"startTime":1239.08,"endTime":1241.44,"body":"range of capability."},{"startTime":1241.64,"endTime":1244.6,"body":"And now even in the free version"},{"startTime":1241.64,"endTime":1244.6,"body":"of Chachi PT, they'll see that"},{"startTime":1244.6,"endTime":1246.88,"body":"with the advent of five."},{"startTime":1244.6,"endTime":1246.88,"body":"So there are lots of people who"},{"startTime":1246.88,"endTime":1250.6,"body":"I think will in the coming weeks"},{"startTime":1246.88,"endTime":1250.6,"body":"and months see that it has, you"},{"startTime":1250.6,"endTime":1252.32,"body":"know, a lot more capability than"},{"startTime":1250.6,"endTime":1252.32,"body":"it used to."},{"startTime":1252.72,"endTime":1257.44,"body":"But I'm, I still think that the"},{"startTime":1252.72,"endTime":1257.44,"body":"expectations that everybody had"},{"startTime":1257.44,"endTime":1260.92,"body":"and that I have to say we're"},{"startTime":1257.44,"endTime":1260.92,"body":"stoked by OpenAI themselves for"},{"startTime":1260.92,"endTime":1263.28,"body":"a really, you know,"},{"startTime":1260.92,"endTime":1263.28,"body":"transformative change that"},{"startTime":1263.28,"endTime":1267.32,"body":"hasn't occurred."},{"startTime":1263.28,"endTime":1267.32,"body":"And it's even led Sam Altman to"},{"startTime":1268.2,"endTime":1274.48,"body":"admitting that GPT 5 is quote"},{"startTime":1268.2,"endTime":1274.48,"body":"\"way dumber\" than previous models."},{"startTime":1274.76,"endTime":1279.08,"body":"So perhaps as you mentioned"},{"startTime":1274.76,"endTime":1279.08,"body":"there, the kind of power users"},{"startTime":1279.08,"endTime":1282.24,"body":"and being brought in by the"},{"startTime":1279.08,"endTime":1282.24,"body":"hype, not noticing significant"},{"startTime":1282.24,"endTime":1285.2,"body":"changes, but for perhaps free"},{"startTime":1282.24,"endTime":1285.2,"body":"users noticing significant"},{"startTime":1285.2,"endTime":1288.8,"body":"differences, it's a case of as"},{"startTime":1285.2,"endTime":1288.8,"body":"opposed to, to, to raising the"},{"startTime":1288.8,"endTime":1291.52,"body":"ceiling, they're actually"},{"startTime":1288.8,"endTime":1291.52,"body":"raising the floor for, for"},{"startTime":1291.52,"endTime":1296.8,"body":"accessibility there."},{"startTime":1291.52,"endTime":1296.8,"body":"But it seems as though not not"},{"startTime":1296.8,"endTime":1300.84,"body":"all is incredibly positive for"},{"startTime":1296.8,"endTime":1300.84,"body":"for open AI at the moment."},{"startTime":1300.84,"endTime":1303.36,"body":"There seems to be a lot of wind"},{"startTime":1300.84,"endTime":1303.36,"body":"in the sails of of other models,"},{"startTime":1304.04,"endTime":1306.52,"body":"umm, Google Gemini."},{"startTime":1304.04,"endTime":1306.52,"body":"I think one in particular is"},{"startTime":1306.52,"endTime":1310.24,"body":"seems to be incurring a lot of"},{"startTime":1306.52,"endTime":1310.24,"body":"of, uh, interest online and"},{"startTime":1310.24,"endTime":1311.56,"body":"prediction markets in"},{"startTime":1310.24,"endTime":1311.56,"body":"particular."},{"startTime":1311.96,"endTime":1314.04,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":1311.96,"endTime":1314.04,"body":"So a lot of, uh, recent, uh,"},{"startTime":1314.4,"endTime":1318.12,"body":"politics and investment has"},{"startTime":1314.4,"endTime":1318.12,"body":"followed this, uh, space of"},{"startTime":1318.12,"endTime":1320.12,"body":"prediction markets."},{"startTime":1318.12,"endTime":1320.12,"body":"So I'll briefly describe what"},{"startTime":1320.12,"endTime":1322.56,"body":"they are because they might be"},{"startTime":1320.12,"endTime":1322.56,"body":"less familiar to some listeners,"},{"startTime":1322.56,"endTime":1325.32,"body":"but they're essentially A"},{"startTime":1322.56,"endTime":1325.32,"body":"betting market where you can bet"},{"startTime":1325.32,"endTime":1328.68,"body":"on things that are not horse"},{"startTime":1325.32,"endTime":1328.68,"body":"races and the conventional types"},{"startTime":1328.68,"endTime":1331.32,"body":"of sports betting we're used to,"},{"startTime":1328.68,"endTime":1331.32,"body":"but bet instead on perhaps the"},{"startTime":1331.32,"endTime":1334.68,"body":"outcome of an election or in"},{"startTime":1331.32,"endTime":1334.68,"body":"this particular case, on which"},{"startTime":1334.76,"endTime":1338.32,"body":"of the companies might deliver"},{"startTime":1334.76,"endTime":1338.32,"body":"AGI or which might have the next"},{"startTime":1338.32,"endTime":1340.8,"body":"most powerful model in a"},{"startTime":1338.32,"endTime":1340.8,"body":"particular time period."},{"startTime":1341.16,"endTime":1343.68,"body":"And so a lot of people have"},{"startTime":1341.16,"endTime":1343.68,"body":"started looking at these"},{"startTime":1343.72,"endTime":1346.64,"body":"prediction markets as a way to"},{"startTime":1343.72,"endTime":1346.64,"body":"assess amongst the people who"},{"startTime":1346.64,"endTime":1350.04,"body":"are very plugged into investment"},{"startTime":1346.64,"endTime":1350.04,"body":"in particular and are making"},{"startTime":1350.04,"endTime":1352.16,"body":"bets on these things."},{"startTime":1350.04,"endTime":1352.16,"body":"They might also give an"},{"startTime":1352.16,"endTime":1353.96,"body":"indication of where the money"},{"startTime":1352.16,"endTime":1353.96,"body":"might flow and where the"},{"startTime":1353.96,"endTime":1357.76,"body":"valuations might be."},{"startTime":1353.96,"endTime":1357.76,"body":"Because if they're both rich"},{"startTime":1357.76,"endTime":1359.84,"body":"enough to be making investment"},{"startTime":1357.76,"endTime":1359.84,"body":"and rich enough to be making"},{"startTime":1359.84,"endTime":1362.56,"body":"bets on where that goes, the"},{"startTime":1359.84,"endTime":1362.56,"body":"these two things can be used in"},{"startTime":1362.56,"endTime":1364.64,"body":"parallel."},{"startTime":1362.56,"endTime":1364.64,"body":"And sometimes there's a lot of"},{"startTime":1364.8,"endTime":1368.2,"body":"weight given to the outcome of"},{"startTime":1364.8,"endTime":1368.2,"body":"different prediction markets."},{"startTime":1368.36,"endTime":1371.48,"body":"And so there are sets of markets"},{"startTime":1368.36,"endTime":1371.48,"body":"that are based around people's"},{"startTime":1371.48,"endTime":1375.4,"body":"bet around who will deliver AGI"},{"startTime":1371.48,"endTime":1375.4,"body":"and who will have the most"},{"startTime":1375.4,"endTime":1377.64,"body":"powerful model at the end of"},{"startTime":1375.4,"endTime":1377.64,"body":"this quarter."},{"startTime":1378.0,"endTime":1382.04,"body":"And up until ChatGPT 5 came out,"},{"startTime":1378.0,"endTime":1382.04,"body":"OpenAI, I was very firmly"},{"startTime":1382.04,"endTime":1384.8,"body":"in this driving seat again,"},{"startTime":1382.04,"endTime":1384.8,"body":"probably driven by their hype."},{"startTime":1384.8,"endTime":1388.32,"body":"And there was a lot of, uh, kind"},{"startTime":1384.8,"endTime":1388.32,"body":"of discussion from, uh, Sam"},{"startTime":1388.32,"endTime":1390.92,"body":"Altman in some of the interviews"},{"startTime":1388.32,"endTime":1390.92,"body":"he gave right prior to the"},{"startTime":1390.92,"endTime":1394.24,"body":"release where he talked about"},{"startTime":1390.92,"endTime":1394.24,"body":"being almost afraid of how good"},{"startTime":1394.24,"endTime":1398.44,"body":"it was and talking about it"},{"startTime":1394.24,"endTime":1398.44,"body":"being a PhD level intelligence"},{"startTime":1398.44,"endTime":1401.44,"body":"on every possible topic, these"},{"startTime":1398.44,"endTime":1401.44,"body":"sorts of, of, umm, claims."},{"startTime":1402.36,"endTime":1404.64,"body":"And then when it came out and"},{"startTime":1402.36,"endTime":1404.64,"body":"was tested, the prediction"},{"startTime":1404.64,"endTime":1407.4,"body":"market changed very drastically"},{"startTime":1404.64,"endTime":1407.4,"body":"and very quickly and now puts"},{"startTime":1407.4,"endTime":1410.72,"body":"Google Gemini as the, uh,"},{"startTime":1407.4,"endTime":1410.72,"body":"company most likely to have the"},{"startTime":1410.72,"endTime":1412.32,"body":"best model at the end of this"},{"startTime":1410.72,"endTime":1412.32,"body":"quarter."},{"startTime":1412.8,"endTime":1414.76,"body":"And part of what's going on"},{"startTime":1412.8,"endTime":1414.76,"body":"there, I think is a reaction"},{"startTime":1414.76,"endTime":1418.0,"body":"against that hype because Google"},{"startTime":1414.76,"endTime":1418.0,"body":"with their models have been"},{"startTime":1418.0,"endTime":1419.96,"body":"doing the quieter version that"},{"startTime":1418.0,"endTime":1419.96,"body":"we mentioned earlier."},{"startTime":1420.0,"endTime":1421.36,"body":"They're doing iterative"},{"startTime":1420.0,"endTime":1421.36,"body":"releases."},{"startTime":1421.36,"endTime":1424.28,"body":"Their models are very good also,"},{"startTime":1421.36,"endTime":1424.28,"body":"but they're not as loudly"},{"startTime":1424.28,"endTime":1426.2,"body":"trumpeting each one as opening"},{"startTime":1424.28,"endTime":1426.2,"body":"eye is."},{"startTime":1426.24,"endTime":1429.4,"body":"And I think now there's a belief"},{"startTime":1426.24,"endTime":1429.4,"body":"amongst the prediction markets"},{"startTime":1429.4,"endTime":1433.6,"body":"that perhaps that approach of"},{"startTime":1429.4,"endTime":1433.6,"body":"softly making progress is the"},{"startTime":1433.6,"endTime":1436.24,"body":"right one and the money might"},{"startTime":1433.6,"endTime":1436.24,"body":"now flow in that direction."},{"startTime":1437.24,"endTime":1440.72,"body":"There was a time when Google was"},{"startTime":1437.24,"endTime":1440.72,"body":"seen to be lagging behind the"},{"startTime":1440.72,"endTime":1442.2,"body":"other players in this race."},{"startTime":1440.72,"endTime":1442.2,"body":"Is that right?"},{"startTime":1442.2,"endTime":1444.52,"body":"Very much so, yeah."},{"startTime":1442.2,"endTime":1444.52,"body":"So there was a, a, a period, and"},{"startTime":1444.52,"endTime":1448.12,"body":"we even talked about it in our"},{"startTime":1444.52,"endTime":1448.12,"body":"prior podcast last year where it"},{"startTime":1448.12,"endTime":1450.28,"body":"seemed like Google was the place"},{"startTime":1448.12,"endTime":1450.28,"body":"where this started."},{"startTime":1450.28,"endTime":1453.88,"body":"I mean, Google took over the,"},{"startTime":1450.28,"endTime":1453.88,"body":"uh, DeepMind, uh, Labs and the"},{"startTime":1453.88,"endTime":1456.64,"body":"various ventures there that that"},{"startTime":1453.88,"endTime":1456.64,"body":"led to transformer models that"},{"startTime":1456.64,"endTime":1459.32,"body":"led to this explosion of the"},{"startTime":1456.64,"endTime":1459.32,"body":"kinds of AI that we have now."},{"startTime":1459.72,"endTime":1461.36,"body":"And they did seem surpassed for"},{"startTime":1459.72,"endTime":1461.36,"body":"a long time."},{"startTime":1461.4,"endTime":1463.36,"body":"And even Anthropic seemed well"},{"startTime":1461.4,"endTime":1463.36,"body":"ahead of them."},{"startTime":1463.64,"endTime":1466.04,"body":"And there, there was a period"},{"startTime":1463.64,"endTime":1466.04,"body":"where they seemed to have kicked"},{"startTime":1466.04,"endTime":1468.08,"body":"something off, but then bowed"},{"startTime":1466.04,"endTime":1468.08,"body":"out of it."},{"startTime":1468.24,"endTime":1471.68,"body":"And they had, as Google has had"},{"startTime":1468.24,"endTime":1471.68,"body":"many times with other, uh, kind"},{"startTime":1471.68,"endTime":1473.88,"body":"of software and, and product"},{"startTime":1471.68,"endTime":1473.88,"body":"launches, they had a kind of"},{"startTime":1474.4,"endTime":1477.92,"body":"damp squib launch around Google"},{"startTime":1474.4,"endTime":1477.92,"body":"Bard, such as it was back in,"},{"startTime":1478.28,"endTime":1480.88,"body":"uh, a year or two ago, uh,"},{"startTime":1478.28,"endTime":1480.88,"body":"before it became Google Gemini."},{"startTime":1480.88,"endTime":1482.84,"body":"So part of the reason it has"},{"startTime":1480.88,"endTime":1482.84,"body":"that name, I think was to get"},{"startTime":1482.84,"endTime":1485.0,"body":"away from a not great launch of"},{"startTime":1482.84,"endTime":1485.0,"body":"its previous name."},{"startTime":1485.36,"endTime":1487.84,"body":"And so, uh, Google had been a"},{"startTime":1485.36,"endTime":1487.84,"body":"little bit quieter and maybe"},{"startTime":1487.84,"endTime":1490.4,"body":"they were chastened by that"},{"startTime":1487.84,"endTime":1490.4,"body":"experience and therefore aren't"},{"startTime":1490.4,"endTime":1493.8,"body":"doing the same hyping."},{"startTime":1490.4,"endTime":1493.8,"body":"It's also, I, I should mention"},{"startTime":1493.8,"endTime":1496.72,"body":"that I didn't give figures for"},{"startTime":1493.8,"endTime":1496.72,"body":"their valuation when I was"},{"startTime":1496.72,"endTime":1498.16,"body":"talking about those valuations"},{"startTime":1496.72,"endTime":1498.16,"body":"earlier."},{"startTime":1498.32,"endTime":1499.96,"body":"And that's because I can't find"},{"startTime":1498.32,"endTime":1499.96,"body":"them easily."},{"startTime":1499.96,"endTime":1503.92,"body":"So Google, it's much harder to"},{"startTime":1499.96,"endTime":1503.92,"body":"find specific numbers about"},{"startTime":1503.92,"endTime":1507.92,"body":"their AI valuation and AI income"},{"startTime":1503.92,"endTime":1507.92,"body":"to make that kind of claim that"},{"startTime":1507.92,"endTime":1509.6,"body":"I did on, on the ratios for the"},{"startTime":1507.92,"endTime":1509.6,"body":"others."},{"startTime":1509.88,"endTime":1512.84,"body":"And so maybe that also is, uh,"},{"startTime":1509.88,"endTime":1512.84,"body":"part of the, the drive for why"},{"startTime":1512.84,"endTime":1515.96,"body":"you might be more comfortable"},{"startTime":1512.84,"endTime":1515.96,"body":"investing because it's not as"},{"startTime":1515.96,"endTime":1517.96,"body":"clear where the, the line is"},{"startTime":1515.96,"endTime":1517.96,"body":"drawn there."},{"startTime":1518.76,"endTime":1523.28,"body":"So if the race for valuation,"},{"startTime":1518.76,"endTime":1523.28,"body":"the race for new releases and"},{"startTime":1523.28,"endTime":1527.72,"body":"things like this is so much of a"},{"startTime":1523.28,"endTime":1527.72,"body":"kind of hype game, does that not"},{"startTime":1527.72,"endTime":1531.12,"body":"lead to the conclusion that"},{"startTime":1527.72,"endTime":1531.12,"body":"ChatGPT or Open AI's press"},{"startTime":1531.12,"endTime":1534.4,"body":"conference for Chat GTP 5 will"},{"startTime":1531.12,"endTime":1534.4,"body":"not a bit of disaster?"},{"startTime":1534.96,"endTime":1537.6,"body":"Maybe so, yeah."},{"startTime":1534.96,"endTime":1537.6,"body":"And I mean, this is the, the"},{"startTime":1537.8,"endTime":1541.48,"body":"ultimate outcome where it got"},{"startTime":1537.8,"endTime":1541.48,"body":"this kind of, uh, less than"},{"startTime":1541.48,"endTime":1544.68,"body":"enthusiastic reception from the"},{"startTime":1541.48,"endTime":1544.68,"body":"tech press is also bolstered"},{"startTime":1544.68,"endTime":1546.88,"body":"even further by some of the"},{"startTime":1544.68,"endTime":1546.88,"body":"smaller disasters that happened"},{"startTime":1546.88,"endTime":1549.2,"body":"during this, uh, uh, event"},{"startTime":1546.88,"endTime":1549.2,"body":"itself."},{"startTime":1549.2,"endTime":1551.84,"body":"So we'll share in the show notes"},{"startTime":1549.2,"endTime":1551.84,"body":"for this for people who didn't"},{"startTime":1551.84,"endTime":1554.8,"body":"catch it at the time, but, uh,"},{"startTime":1551.84,"endTime":1554.8,"body":"some of the graphs that OpenAI"},{"startTime":1554.8,"endTime":1558.68,"body":"used during the, the press"},{"startTime":1554.8,"endTime":1558.68,"body":"release and, uh, during the, the"},{"startTime":1558.68,"endTime":1563.0,"body":"kind of discussions they were"},{"startTime":1558.68,"endTime":1563.0,"body":"making are problematic to say"},{"startTime":1563.0,"endTime":1566.44,"body":"the least in terms of their"},{"startTime":1563.0,"endTime":1566.44,"body":"reflection of good practice for"},{"startTime":1566.44,"endTime":1569.44,"body":"data communication."},{"startTime":1566.44,"endTime":1569.44,"body":"That's a, it's a module that I"},{"startTime":1569.44,"endTime":1572.32,"body":"lecture actually in DCU - Data"},{"startTime":1569.44,"endTime":1572.32,"body":"Communication."},{"startTime":1572.32,"endTime":1574.52,"body":"And so these are now firmly"},{"startTime":1572.32,"endTime":1574.52,"body":"going into my slides for this"},{"startTime":1574.52,"endTime":1577.72,"body":"year as very terrible examples"},{"startTime":1574.52,"endTime":1577.72,"body":"of of some of what's going on in"},{"startTime":1577.72,"endTime":1580.32,"body":"that space."},{"startTime":1577.72,"endTime":1580.32,"body":"And they haven't confirmed this,"},{"startTime":1580.32,"endTime":1583.24,"body":"but a lot of people think that"},{"startTime":1580.32,"endTime":1583.24,"body":"perhaps what happened was that"},{"startTime":1583.24,"endTime":1586.16,"body":"they used the model itself to"},{"startTime":1583.24,"endTime":1586.16,"body":"generate some of the graphs that"},{"startTime":1586.16,"endTime":1589.56,"body":"show its performance versus its"},{"startTime":1586.16,"endTime":1589.56,"body":"previous iteration."},{"startTime":1589.56,"endTime":1593.0,"body":"So comparing it to the model O3"},{"startTime":1589.56,"endTime":1593.0,"body":"that was in widespread use"},{"startTime":1593.0,"endTime":1595.08,"body":"before and showing how much"},{"startTime":1593.0,"endTime":1595.08,"body":"better it is than O3."},{"startTime":1595.32,"endTime":1599.72,"body":"The graph that they used to show"},{"startTime":1595.32,"endTime":1599.72,"body":"that had vertical bars showing"},{"startTime":1599.72,"endTime":1601.72,"body":"the performance."},{"startTime":1599.72,"endTime":1601.72,"body":"And the bars had no relationship"},{"startTime":1601.72,"endTime":1603.52,"body":"to the actual numbers"},{"startTime":1601.72,"endTime":1603.52,"body":"whatsoever."},{"startTime":1603.52,"endTime":1606.08,"body":"And it wasn't that much of a"},{"startTime":1603.52,"endTime":1606.08,"body":"giant leap from O3."},{"startTime":1606.08,"endTime":1608.4,"body":"But the graph, if you just"},{"startTime":1606.08,"endTime":1608.4,"body":"quickly glanced, it would make"},{"startTime":1608.4,"endTime":1610.68,"body":"you think so."},{"startTime":1608.4,"endTime":1610.68,"body":"And maybe what happened there,"},{"startTime":1610.68,"endTime":1613.2,"body":"because it's hard to imagine in"},{"startTime":1610.68,"endTime":1613.2,"body":"a very large professional"},{"startTime":1613.2,"endTime":1615.8,"body":"company that you would put those"},{"startTime":1613.2,"endTime":1615.8,"body":"graphs out to the public at a"},{"startTime":1615.8,"endTime":1618.52,"body":"really important release point."},{"startTime":1615.8,"endTime":1618.52,"body":"But maybe that itself is"},{"startTime":1618.52,"endTime":1622.08,"body":"indicative of the internal"},{"startTime":1618.52,"endTime":1622.08,"body":"culture that they have that that"},{"startTime":1622.08,"endTime":1625.48,"body":"how much they've, you know,"},{"startTime":1622.08,"endTime":1625.48,"body":"imbibed this hype themselves,"},{"startTime":1625.48,"endTime":1627.48,"body":"that maybe they're not even"},{"startTime":1625.48,"endTime":1627.48,"body":"critically looking at their own"},{"startTime":1627.48,"endTime":1631.52,"body":"communications around it and"},{"startTime":1627.48,"endTime":1631.52,"body":"taking a, a, a breath to to see"},{"startTime":1631.52,"endTime":1634.24,"body":"if everything is as it should be"},{"startTime":1631.52,"endTime":1634.24,"body":"before they put it out to the"},{"startTime":1634.24,"endTime":1637.68,"body":"public."},{"startTime":1634.24,"endTime":1637.68,"body":"It's it just seems like a a race"},{"startTime":1637.68,"endTime":1639.84,"body":"that's accelerating I think all"},{"startTime":1637.68,"endTime":1639.84,"body":"the time."},{"startTime":1640.12,"endTime":1645.48,"body":"And another area in which we're"},{"startTime":1640.12,"endTime":1645.48,"body":"seeing a lot of hype to use the"},{"startTime":1645.48,"endTime":1648.08,"body":"word again, but also a lot of"},{"startTime":1645.48,"endTime":1648.08,"body":"development is around what you"},{"startTime":1648.08,"endTime":1651.44,"body":"might term \"third devices\","},{"startTime":1648.08,"endTime":1651.44,"body":"essentially wearable tech, the"},{"startTime":1651.44,"endTime":1654.6,"body":"kind of next piece of technology"},{"startTime":1651.44,"endTime":1654.6,"body":"that's going to be informed by"},{"startTime":1654.68,"endTime":1658.44,"body":"AI beyond laptops and computers,"},{"startTime":1654.68,"endTime":1658.44,"body":"beyond smartphones."},{"startTime":1658.76,"endTime":1661.76,"body":"And these are things like metas,"},{"startTime":1658.76,"endTime":1661.76,"body":"smart glasses."},{"startTime":1661.76,"endTime":1663.88,"body":"So Mark Zuckerberg wants us all"},{"startTime":1661.76,"endTime":1663.88,"body":"to be wearing a pair of RayBans"},{"startTime":1663.88,"endTime":1665.92,"body":"that have a camera and a"},{"startTime":1663.88,"endTime":1665.92,"body":"microphone and perhaps"},{"startTime":1665.96,"endTime":1670.16,"body":"eventually a kind of computer or"},{"startTime":1665.96,"endTime":1670.16,"body":"desktop interface on one of the"},{"startTime":1670.16,"endTime":1674.92,"body":"lenses, something like that."},{"startTime":1670.16,"endTime":1674.92,"body":"Why such a push for this kind of"},{"startTime":1674.92,"endTime":1677.24,"body":"technology do you think, by"},{"startTime":1674.92,"endTime":1677.24,"body":"these companies?"},{"startTime":1677.48,"endTime":1680.68,"body":"Again, I, I suspect that a large"},{"startTime":1677.48,"endTime":1680.68,"body":"part of that is that there"},{"startTime":1680.72,"endTime":1684.24,"body":"exists probably a, a theorised"},{"startTime":1680.72,"endTime":1684.24,"body":"space for some new kind of"},{"startTime":1684.24,"endTime":1687.2,"body":"product, the new iPhone, the"},{"startTime":1684.24,"endTime":1687.2,"body":"third device, as you say, some,"},{"startTime":1687.2,"endTime":1688.56,"body":"some new thing that's going to"},{"startTime":1687.2,"endTime":1688.56,"body":"fit there."},{"startTime":1688.88,"endTime":1690.44,"body":"And so people want to be the"},{"startTime":1688.88,"endTime":1690.44,"body":"first of that."},{"startTime":1690.44,"endTime":1693.24,"body":"They want to be the apple of"},{"startTime":1690.44,"endTime":1693.24,"body":"that to, to kind of seize that"},{"startTime":1693.24,"endTime":1695.44,"body":"market."},{"startTime":1693.24,"endTime":1695.44,"body":"But also, if you're selling"},{"startTime":1695.6,"endTime":1697.96,"body":"devices, you're selling them for"},{"startTime":1695.6,"endTime":1697.96,"body":"a lot more money than you're"},{"startTime":1697.96,"endTime":1701.04,"body":"selling subscriptions and"},{"startTime":1697.96,"endTime":1701.04,"body":"subscriptions can be cancelled."},{"startTime":1701.04,"endTime":1703.44,"body":"And indeed, lots of"},{"startTime":1701.04,"endTime":1703.44,"body":"subscriptions to OpenAI's"},{"startTime":1703.44,"endTime":1706.24,"body":"services seem to have been"},{"startTime":1703.44,"endTime":1706.24,"body":"cancelled on foot of that, uh,"},{"startTime":1706.24,"endTime":1709.0,"body":"not great launch that they had"},{"startTime":1706.24,"endTime":1709.0,"body":"with, with, uh, version 5 there,"},{"startTime":1709.48,"endTime":1712.92,"body":"Uh, whereas you can for a lot of"},{"startTime":1709.48,"endTime":1712.92,"body":"money sell whatever the third"},{"startTime":1712.92,"endTime":1714.48,"body":"device is."},{"startTime":1712.92,"endTime":1714.48,"body":"And so I suspect that lots of"},{"startTime":1714.48,"endTime":1718.0,"body":"the companies will look at"},{"startTime":1714.48,"endTime":1718.0,"body":"trying to have some offering in"},{"startTime":1718.0,"endTime":1720.32,"body":"the space."},{"startTime":1718.0,"endTime":1720.32,"body":"We've seen a few attempts at"},{"startTime":1720.32,"endTime":1722.72,"body":"this last year."},{"startTime":1720.32,"endTime":1722.72,"body":"So there were small devices like"},{"startTime":1722.72,"endTime":1727.12,"body":"a clip on device that you could"},{"startTime":1722.72,"endTime":1727.12,"body":"wear that was sort of listening"},{"startTime":1727.12,"endTime":1730.84,"body":"to your conversations and"},{"startTime":1727.12,"endTime":1730.84,"body":"unhelpfully interrupting with AI"},{"startTime":1730.88,"endTime":1733.4,"body":"components or as you say, the"},{"startTime":1730.88,"endTime":1733.4,"body":"smart glasses that kind of show"},{"startTime":1733.4,"endTime":1736.12,"body":"you real time information."},{"startTime":1733.4,"endTime":1736.12,"body":"And there's, there's been"},{"startTime":1736.12,"endTime":1741.16,"body":"products like there are AI based"},{"startTime":1736.12,"endTime":1741.16,"body":"essentially cheating services"},{"startTime":1741.16,"endTime":1744.28,"body":"for if you're doing online"},{"startTime":1741.16,"endTime":1744.28,"body":"interviews on you, you know,"},{"startTime":1744.36,"endTime":1746.8,"body":"that's kind of sit on your"},{"startTime":1744.36,"endTime":1746.8,"body":"screen as an extra layer and"},{"startTime":1747.0,"endTime":1749.24,"body":"help you with questions."},{"startTime":1747.0,"endTime":1749.24,"body":"So there's a few kind of"},{"startTime":1749.24,"endTime":1751.8,"body":"software and some early hardware"},{"startTime":1749.24,"endTime":1751.8,"body":"things in that space."},{"startTime":1752.08,"endTime":1754.32,"body":"But there's nothing at the level"},{"startTime":1752.08,"endTime":1754.32,"body":"of the iPhone, nothing that's"},{"startTime":1754.36,"endTime":1756.0,"body":"really a new device that we"},{"startTime":1754.36,"endTime":1756.0,"body":"would all use."},{"startTime":1756.4,"endTime":1758.2,"body":"And many of the companies are"},{"startTime":1756.4,"endTime":1758.2,"body":"investing in that and are"},{"startTime":1758.2,"endTime":1761.52,"body":"bringing in personnel who they"},{"startTime":1758.2,"endTime":1761.52,"body":"would hope are going to deliver"},{"startTime":1761.52,"endTime":1763.68,"body":"that for them because that's a"},{"startTime":1761.52,"endTime":1763.68,"body":"major revenue stream if that"},{"startTime":1763.68,"endTime":1767.6,"body":"happens."},{"startTime":1763.68,"endTime":1767.6,"body":"Kind of points towards the, the"},{"startTime":1767.6,"endTime":1771.16,"body":"other areas of real estate that"},{"startTime":1767.6,"endTime":1771.16,"body":"we kind of embody for for for"},{"startTime":1771.16,"endTime":1774.44,"body":"these companies."},{"startTime":1771.16,"endTime":1774.44,"body":"It seems as though another part"},{"startTime":1774.44,"endTime":1777.88,"body":"of that is the topic of kind of"},{"startTime":1774.44,"endTime":1777.88,"body":"AI agents yes."},{"startTime":1777.88,"endTime":1781.72,"body":"So these so these uh services"},{"startTime":1777.88,"endTime":1781.72,"body":"that will kind of plug into our"},{"startTime":1781.72,"endTime":1783.24,"body":"life."},{"startTime":1781.72,"endTime":1783.24,"body":"They might read your emails,"},{"startTime":1783.24,"endTime":1786.92,"body":"read your calendar, give you a"},{"startTime":1783.24,"endTime":1786.92,"body":"schedule of the day, but not"},{"startTime":1786.92,"endTime":1790.2,"body":"without hallucinations and other"},{"startTime":1786.92,"endTime":1790.2,"body":"kind of teething problems that a"},{"startTime":1790.2,"endTime":1791.96,"body":"lot of these technologies seem"},{"startTime":1790.2,"endTime":1791.96,"body":"to have as well."},{"startTime":1792.44,"endTime":1795.12,"body":"Yeah, I mean, those two things"},{"startTime":1792.44,"endTime":1795.12,"body":"are probably linked to because I"},{"startTime":1795.12,"endTime":1798.88,"body":"suspect that the third device"},{"startTime":1795.12,"endTime":1798.88,"body":"such as it will be, is going to"},{"startTime":1798.88,"endTime":1801.24,"body":"be one that is doing agentic"},{"startTime":1798.88,"endTime":1801.24,"body":"things."},{"startTime":1801.24,"endTime":1803.8,"body":"We talked about agency with AI"},{"startTime":1801.24,"endTime":1803.8,"body":"several times previously."},{"startTime":1803.8,"endTime":1806.52,"body":"That's the idea that you can"},{"startTime":1803.8,"endTime":1806.52,"body":"have it do stuff on your behalf."},{"startTime":1806.52,"endTime":1807.8,"body":"It's going to manage your"},{"startTime":1806.52,"endTime":1807.8,"body":"calendar."},{"startTime":1807.8,"endTime":1810.64,"body":"It's going to be your assistant"},{"startTime":1807.8,"endTime":1810.64,"body":"in a much fuller way than we"},{"startTime":1810.64,"endTime":1813.36,"body":"currently think of assistants"},{"startTime":1810.64,"endTime":1813.36,"body":"like Siri or Alexa."},{"startTime":1813.36,"endTime":1815.12,"body":"And you can hand off entire"},{"startTime":1813.36,"endTime":1815.12,"body":"functions."},{"startTime":1815.12,"endTime":1818.32,"body":"It might reply to emails, it"},{"startTime":1815.12,"endTime":1818.32,"body":"might, you know, manage your,"},{"startTime":1818.32,"endTime":1821.0,"body":"your schedule, whatever it, it"},{"startTime":1818.32,"endTime":1821.0,"body":"could do a whole load of, of"},{"startTime":1821.32,"endTime":1824.64,"body":"things for you if it was"},{"startTime":1821.32,"endTime":1824.64,"body":"operating in that full agentic"},{"startTime":1824.64,"endTime":1827.36,"body":"capacity."},{"startTime":1824.64,"endTime":1827.36,"body":"But that's, yeah, that's been"},{"startTime":1827.36,"endTime":1829.0,"body":"slow."},{"startTime":1827.36,"endTime":1829.0,"body":"And a lot of the progress that's"},{"startTime":1829.0,"endTime":1831.64,"body":"been made on models has been to"},{"startTime":1829.0,"endTime":1831.64,"body":"try and address this."},{"startTime":1831.88,"endTime":1834.6,"body":"So one of the key, uh, issues"},{"startTime":1831.88,"endTime":1834.6,"body":"that I'm not sure we mentioned"},{"startTime":1834.6,"endTime":1837.92,"body":"previously was while the models"},{"startTime":1834.6,"endTime":1837.92,"body":"might get better and better at"},{"startTime":1837.92,"endTime":1840.28,"body":"reasoning and coming up with"},{"startTime":1837.92,"endTime":1840.28,"body":"solutions, combining and"},{"startTime":1840.28,"endTime":1843.04,"body":"synthesising answers from lots"},{"startTime":1840.28,"endTime":1843.04,"body":"of different sources of data,"},{"startTime":1843.48,"endTime":1846.52,"body":"they're less good at doing"},{"startTime":1843.48,"endTime":1846.52,"body":"sustained long term tasks."},{"startTime":1846.8,"endTime":1849.08,"body":"And so a lot of the recent"},{"startTime":1846.8,"endTime":1849.08,"body":"training has been focused on"},{"startTime":1849.4,"endTime":1851.4,"body":"building models that are able to"},{"startTime":1849.4,"endTime":1851.4,"body":"do that."},{"startTime":1851.4,"endTime":1854.52,"body":"Because if you want an agent"},{"startTime":1851.4,"endTime":1854.52,"body":"type of model, if you want"},{"startTime":1854.52,"endTime":1857.36,"body":"something that's going to run"},{"startTime":1854.52,"endTime":1857.36,"body":"alongside your life for weeks"},{"startTime":1857.36,"endTime":1860.08,"body":"and months and years at a time"},{"startTime":1857.36,"endTime":1860.08,"body":"and, you know, handle things for"},{"startTime":1860.08,"endTime":1862.72,"body":"you, be your assistant."},{"startTime":1860.08,"endTime":1862.72,"body":"It needs to be capable of having"},{"startTime":1862.72,"endTime":1866.2,"body":"that level of autonomy to run"},{"startTime":1862.72,"endTime":1866.2,"body":"lots and lots of tasks, not to"},{"startTime":1866.2,"endTime":1868.32,"body":"be prompted at each point as we"},{"startTime":1866.2,"endTime":1868.32,"body":"currently do."},{"startTime":1868.68,"endTime":1871.4,"body":"And so the models that we"},{"startTime":1868.68,"endTime":1871.4,"body":"currently have, the, the large"},{"startTime":1871.4,"endTime":1874.48,"body":"language models that we're used"},{"startTime":1871.4,"endTime":1874.48,"body":"to using, they're incredible in"},{"startTime":1874.48,"endTime":1876.4,"body":"what they're able to do."},{"startTime":1874.48,"endTime":1876.4,"body":"There's a huge amount that they"},{"startTime":1876.4,"endTime":1879.0,"body":"can do in terms of the reasoning"},{"startTime":1876.4,"endTime":1879.0,"body":"that they have at the moment,"},{"startTime":1879.28,"endTime":1881.24,"body":"but they require this ongoing"},{"startTime":1879.28,"endTime":1881.24,"body":"relationship with us."},{"startTime":1881.24,"endTime":1883.12,"body":"We need to read and see what"},{"startTime":1881.24,"endTime":1883.12,"body":"they've done."},{"startTime":1883.12,"endTime":1885.72,"body":"We need to then prompt them to"},{"startTime":1883.12,"endTime":1885.72,"body":"take the next step and the next"},{"startTime":1885.72,"endTime":1888.2,"body":"and the next."},{"startTime":1885.72,"endTime":1888.2,"body":"And in that space, in that kind"},{"startTime":1888.2,"endTime":1889.28,"body":"of interaction, they're very"},{"startTime":1888.2,"endTime":1889.28,"body":"good."},{"startTime":1889.6,"endTime":1893.04,"body":"But to let them loose as"},{"startTime":1889.6,"endTime":1893.04,"body":"autonomous agents to manage"},{"startTime":1893.04,"endTime":1895.0,"body":"things for us, that's much less"},{"startTime":1893.04,"endTime":1895.0,"body":"the case."},{"startTime":1895.0,"endTime":1897.64,"body":"And I think there's a lot of"},{"startTime":1895.0,"endTime":1897.64,"body":"focus on developing their"},{"startTime":1897.64,"endTime":1903.0,"body":"capacity in that space now."},{"startTime":1897.64,"endTime":1903.0,"body":"So limits of data, limits of"},{"startTime":1903.0,"endTime":1907.32,"body":"synthetic data, it brings to"},{"startTime":1903.0,"endTime":1907.32,"body":"mind the kind of hockey stick"},{"startTime":1907.44,"endTime":1910.96,"body":"graph where there was"},{"startTime":1907.44,"endTime":1910.96,"body":"exponential growth for a while"},{"startTime":1910.96,"endTime":1913.16,"body":"and now it's kind of levelling"},{"startTime":1910.96,"endTime":1913.16,"body":"off where we've seen kind of"},{"startTime":1913.16,"endTime":1914.88,"body":"diminishing returns here."},{"startTime":1913.16,"endTime":1914.88,"body":"Is that what's happening?"},{"startTime":1915.12,"endTime":1916.84,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":1915.12,"endTime":1916.84,"body":"So we talked again that we're"},{"startTime":1916.84,"endTime":1919.08,"body":"we're connecting well with some"},{"startTime":1916.84,"endTime":1919.08,"body":"of our prior podcasts, but we"},{"startTime":1919.08,"endTime":1923.56,"body":"talked in the past about the the"},{"startTime":1919.08,"endTime":1923.56,"body":"tensions around data."},{"startTime":1923.56,"endTime":1925.96,"body":"So the the input data to train"},{"startTime":1923.56,"endTime":1925.96,"body":"these models in the 1st place."},{"startTime":1925.96,"endTime":1929.32,"body":"There was all of the issues"},{"startTime":1925.96,"endTime":1929.32,"body":"around the ethics and legality"},{"startTime":1929.32,"endTime":1932.04,"body":"and copyright and intellectual"},{"startTime":1929.32,"endTime":1932.04,"body":"property concerns with that."},{"startTime":1932.04,"endTime":1933.96,"body":"Those still exist."},{"startTime":1932.04,"endTime":1933.96,"body":"Those are unresolved."},{"startTime":1934.0,"endTime":1936.24,"body":"In many cases, there have been"},{"startTime":1934.0,"endTime":1936.24,"body":"settlements on things that we"},{"startTime":1936.36,"endTime":1939.56,"body":"mentioned previously where, umm,"},{"startTime":1936.36,"endTime":1939.56,"body":"large publishers have had"},{"startTime":1939.56,"endTime":1942.56,"body":"payouts, but that hasn't really"},{"startTime":1939.56,"endTime":1942.56,"body":"settled the question of whether"},{"startTime":1942.6,"endTime":1946.6,"body":"some of those things were, were,"},{"startTime":1942.6,"endTime":1946.6,"body":"uh, morally right or whether"},{"startTime":1946.6,"endTime":1948.52,"body":"they were legally right in, in"},{"startTime":1946.6,"endTime":1948.52,"body":"lots of contexts."},{"startTime":1948.92,"endTime":1952.0,"body":"Umm, but that initial kind of"},{"startTime":1948.92,"endTime":1952.0,"body":"phase of can we gather all of"},{"startTime":1952.0,"endTime":1954.68,"body":"the data of humanity and use"},{"startTime":1952.0,"endTime":1954.68,"body":"that as an input?"},{"startTime":1954.96,"endTime":1957.4,"body":"We sort of pushed through that"},{"startTime":1954.96,"endTime":1957.4,"body":"and we effectively did."},{"startTime":1957.44,"endTime":1959.92,"body":"And then we moved into something"},{"startTime":1957.44,"endTime":1959.92,"body":"we talked about previously,"},{"startTime":1959.92,"endTime":1962.72,"body":"synthetic data."},{"startTime":1959.92,"endTime":1962.72,"body":"So can we use these models to"},{"startTime":1962.72,"endTime":1966.32,"body":"generate new kinds of data that"},{"startTime":1962.72,"endTime":1966.32,"body":"represents structured"},{"startTime":1966.32,"endTime":1969.32,"body":"connections between stuff that"},{"startTime":1966.32,"endTime":1969.32,"body":"exists so that that can be used"},{"startTime":1969.32,"endTime":1971.72,"body":"to train the next generation?"},{"startTime":1969.32,"endTime":1971.72,"body":"And we've kind of moved through"},{"startTime":1971.72,"endTime":1975.12,"body":"that and we're seeing, I think"},{"startTime":1971.72,"endTime":1975.12,"body":"now diminishing returns on using"},{"startTime":1975.12,"endTime":1978.4,"body":"that sort of synthetic data and"},{"startTime":1975.12,"endTime":1978.4,"body":"where it seems now that, uh, the"},{"startTime":1978.76,"endTime":1982.04,"body":"advancements are being made,"},{"startTime":1978.76,"endTime":1982.04,"body":"they're being made at a later"},{"startTime":1982.04,"endTime":1983.48,"body":"stage again."},{"startTime":1982.04,"endTime":1983.48,"body":"So the models are trained on"},{"startTime":1983.48,"endTime":1986.52,"body":"this data and synthetic data,"},{"startTime":1983.48,"endTime":1986.52,"body":"but they're then post, uh,"},{"startTime":1986.52,"endTime":1989.52,"body":"training, they're put through"},{"startTime":1986.52,"endTime":1989.52,"body":"more kind of rigorous processes"},{"startTime":1989.52,"endTime":1993.52,"body":"around challenges that they have"},{"startTime":1989.52,"endTime":1993.52,"body":"to, to, uh, train themselves on."},{"startTime":1993.52,"endTime":1997.16,"body":"So give task based, uh, or"},{"startTime":1993.52,"endTime":1997.16,"body":"challenge based learning that"},{"startTime":1997.16,"endTime":2000.24,"body":"they, they have where they try"},{"startTime":1997.16,"endTime":2000.24,"body":"and refine their, uh, model"},{"startTime":2000.24,"endTime":2003.24,"body":"based on is doing long term"},{"startTime":2000.24,"endTime":2003.24,"body":"tasks, for example, or, you"},{"startTime":2003.24,"endTime":2007.0,"body":"know, uh, repeatedly, billions"},{"startTime":2003.24,"endTime":2007.0,"body":"and billions of times, uh,"},{"startTime":2007.12,"endTime":2010.32,"body":"iterating through, uh, sort of"},{"startTime":2007.12,"endTime":2010.32,"body":"complex tasks and practising"},{"startTime":2010.64,"endTime":2012.16,"body":"different sorts of, of"},{"startTime":2010.64,"endTime":2012.16,"body":"interactions."},{"startTime":2012.16,"endTime":2015.2,"body":"And so it's a newer form of"},{"startTime":2012.16,"endTime":2015.2,"body":"training than the data based"},{"startTime":2015.2,"endTime":2017.92,"body":"training that we, we looked at,"},{"startTime":2015.2,"endTime":2017.92,"body":"uh, previously, But again, the"},{"startTime":2018.24,"endTime":2021.08,"body":"progress seems much slower."},{"startTime":2018.24,"endTime":2021.08,"body":"So exactly as you say, that kind"},{"startTime":2021.08,"endTime":2024.76,"body":"of, uh, classic, uh, exponential"},{"startTime":2021.08,"endTime":2024.76,"body":"curve of a graph that just gets"},{"startTime":2024.76,"endTime":2027.68,"body":"steeper and steeper and steeper"},{"startTime":2024.76,"endTime":2027.68,"body":"that previous predictions have"},{"startTime":2027.68,"endTime":2030.2,"body":"been based on."},{"startTime":2027.68,"endTime":2030.2,"body":"So again, going back to our"},{"startTime":2030.2,"endTime":2035.16,"body":"episode on, uh, uh, the AI-2027"},{"startTime":2030.2,"endTime":2035.16,"body":"and the doom laden projections,"},{"startTime":2035.16,"endTime":2039.12,"body":"it had it very much based those"},{"startTime":2035.16,"endTime":2039.12,"body":"predictions on how that graph"},{"startTime":2039.12,"endTime":2041.16,"body":"looked at that time."},{"startTime":2039.12,"endTime":2041.16,"body":"And that was the one that you're"},{"startTime":2041.16,"endTime":2042.96,"body":"talking about, one that gets"},{"startTime":2041.16,"endTime":2042.96,"body":"steeper and steeper, an"},{"startTime":2042.96,"endTime":2045.72,"body":"exponential graph."},{"startTime":2042.96,"endTime":2045.72,"body":"But it is seeming now, based on"},{"startTime":2045.72,"endTime":2047.96,"body":"what the models are capable of,"},{"startTime":2045.72,"endTime":2047.96,"body":"that perhaps there are"},{"startTime":2047.96,"endTime":2051.0,"body":"diminishing returns, and perhaps"},{"startTime":2047.96,"endTime":2051.0,"body":"that graph might be an upward"},{"startTime":2051.0,"endTime":2053.199,"body":"pointing but not so steeply"},{"startTime":2051.0,"endTime":2053.199,"body":"upward pointing one."},{"startTime":2053.6,"endTime":2056.32,"body":"You'd have to wonder too if"},{"startTime":2053.6,"endTime":2056.32,"body":"these diminishing returns could"},{"startTime":2056.32,"endTime":2060.0,"body":"be the the eventual pin that"},{"startTime":2056.32,"endTime":2060.0,"body":"pops the bubble."},{"startTime":2060.28,"endTime":2062.84,"body":"Well, this is it, yeah."},{"startTime":2060.28,"endTime":2062.84,"body":"So, so the extent to which they"},{"startTime":2062.88,"endTime":2066.12,"body":"yeah, keep everybody waiting on"},{"startTime":2062.88,"endTime":2066.12,"body":"those returns that all of that"},{"startTime":2066.12,"endTime":2068.639,"body":"investment money is hoping for"},{"startTime":2066.12,"endTime":2068.639,"body":"is the big question."},{"startTime":2068.719,"endTime":2071.52,"body":"So yeah, if, if there is a"},{"startTime":2068.719,"endTime":2071.52,"body":"slowdown, if that hype is not"},{"startTime":2071.52,"endTime":2073.8,"body":"lived up to, yeah, that's that's"},{"startTime":2071.52,"endTime":2073.8,"body":"when bubbles pop."},{"startTime":2074.6,"endTime":2078.719,"body":"Apple brought out a, a research"},{"startTime":2074.6,"endTime":2078.719,"body":"paper too, that found no"},{"startTime":2078.719,"endTime":2082.239,"body":"evidence of, of formal reasoning"},{"startTime":2078.719,"endTime":2082.239,"body":"in language models."},{"startTime":2082.239,"endTime":2086.8,"body":"I think a good reminder that"},{"startTime":2082.239,"endTime":2086.8,"body":"these models aren't thinking,"},{"startTime":2086.8,"endTime":2089.6,"body":"but more so it's, it's, it's"},{"startTime":2086.8,"endTime":2089.6,"body":"sophisticated autocomplete."},{"startTime":2089.84,"endTime":2093.04,"body":"Uh, as I said in, in the first"},{"startTime":2089.84,"endTime":2093.04,"body":"episode in, in the first season,"},{"startTime":2093.4,"endTime":2097.96,"body":"umm, but challenges still remain"},{"startTime":2093.4,"endTime":2097.96,"body":"for the models and how they are"},{"startTime":2097.96,"endTime":2102.04,"body":"trying to promote themselves,"},{"startTime":2097.96,"endTime":2102.04,"body":"especially amongst powerful"},{"startTime":2102.04,"endTime":2106.08,"body":"figures, uh, in the world."},{"startTime":2102.04,"endTime":2106.08,"body":"Uh, not too long ago we saw"},{"startTime":2106.16,"endTime":2111.56,"body":"calls by President Trump to to"},{"startTime":2106.16,"endTime":2111.56,"body":"make, it's funny to say, to make"},{"startTime":2111.56,"endTime":2115.88,"body":"AI models \"non woke\"."},{"startTime":2111.56,"endTime":2115.88,"body":"Yeah, I mean, it's funny and"},{"startTime":2116.0,"endTime":2119.2,"body":"terrifying at the same time, but"},{"startTime":2116.0,"endTime":2119.2,"body":"it's yeah, this is coming out of"},{"startTime":2119.2,"endTime":2123.36,"body":"the, again, something that that"},{"startTime":2119.2,"endTime":2123.36,"body":"you talked about very clearly in"},{"startTime":2123.36,"endTime":2126.04,"body":"in our last episode, the the"},{"startTime":2123.36,"endTime":2126.04,"body":"degree to which people have"},{"startTime":2126.04,"endTime":2129.76,"body":"moved away from Googling things"},{"startTime":2126.04,"endTime":2129.76,"body":"to consulting AI and often"},{"startTime":2129.8,"endTime":2132.72,"body":"CahtGPT specifically."},{"startTime":2129.8,"endTime":2132.72,"body":"And so the, the, as people"},{"startTime":2132.72,"endTime":2137.12,"body":"increasingly become more OK with"},{"startTime":2132.72,"endTime":2137.12,"body":"that being how they receive"},{"startTime":2137.12,"endTime":2139.6,"body":"their information as, as it"},{"startTime":2137.12,"endTime":2139.6,"body":"becomes more ubiquitous, which"},{"startTime":2139.6,"endTime":2141.72,"body":"we talked about the last day"},{"startTime":2139.6,"endTime":2141.72,"body":"that we would use these kind of"},{"startTime":2141.72,"endTime":2144.28,"body":"solutions, then what those"},{"startTime":2141.72,"endTime":2144.28,"body":"solutions are telling people,"},{"startTime":2144.28,"endTime":2146.72,"body":"what that, that tool might say"},{"startTime":2144.28,"endTime":2146.72,"body":"to them when they ask a question"},{"startTime":2146.72,"endTime":2151.16,"body":"about society or politics or"},{"startTime":2146.72,"endTime":2151.16,"body":"\"woke\" adjacent things becomes"},{"startTime":2151.16,"endTime":2153.92,"body":"very important."},{"startTime":2151.16,"endTime":2153.92,"body":"And that first seemed to happen"},{"startTime":2153.92,"endTime":2157.24,"body":"very, very radically within the"},{"startTime":2153.92,"endTime":2157.24,"body":"space of Twitter, where xAI,"},{"startTime":2157.24,"endTime":2161.12,"body":"the, uh, umm, Elon Musk's, uh,"},{"startTime":2157.24,"endTime":2161.12,"body":"company that's produced their"},{"startTime":2161.12,"endTime":2164.28,"body":"model Grok, which they"},{"startTime":2161.12,"endTime":2164.28,"body":"integrated into, uh, Twitter, in"},{"startTime":2164.28,"endTime":2167.24,"body":"which we talked about the"},{"startTime":2164.28,"endTime":2167.24,"body":"problematic disinformation"},{"startTime":2167.48,"endTime":2170.32,"body":"issues with before."},{"startTime":2167.48,"endTime":2170.32,"body":"And people were asking it"},{"startTime":2170.32,"endTime":2172.28,"body":"questions."},{"startTime":2170.32,"endTime":2172.28,"body":"And because you can kind of tag"},{"startTime":2172.28,"endTime":2174.84,"body":"it into your conversation while"},{"startTime":2172.28,"endTime":2174.84,"body":"you're tweeting, often somebody"},{"startTime":2174.84,"endTime":2178.52,"body":"would say something and in many"},{"startTime":2174.84,"endTime":2178.52,"body":"cases, people might make a"},{"startTime":2178.52,"endTime":2180.68,"body":"particular comment about a"},{"startTime":2178.52,"endTime":2180.68,"body":"social issue and someone might"},{"startTime":2180.68,"endTime":2184.08,"body":"say, \"is this true Grok?\" or ask"},{"startTime":2180.68,"endTime":2184.08,"body":"Grok, you know, \"can you support"},{"startTime":2184.08,"endTime":2188.2,"body":"what has been said?\""},{"startTime":2184.08,"endTime":2188.2,"body":"And Grok was tending to have a"},{"startTime":2188.76,"endTime":2192.44,"body":"loosely liberal and left wing"},{"startTime":2188.76,"endTime":2192.44,"body":"view, such as it would be seen"},{"startTime":2192.44,"endTime":2195.36,"body":"in the US on lots of the kind of"},{"startTime":2192.44,"endTime":2195.36,"body":"facts it brought to"},{"startTime":2195.36,"endTime":2197.88,"body":"conversations."},{"startTime":2195.36,"endTime":2197.88,"body":"And this led to a lot of tension"},{"startTime":2197.88,"endTime":2202.6,"body":"and a very strong lobotomisation"},{"startTime":2197.88,"endTime":2202.6,"body":"of Grok by Elon Musk."},{"startTime":2202.84,"endTime":2204.8,"body":"And this in turn, I think"},{"startTime":2202.84,"endTime":2204.8,"body":"brought it to to Trump's"},{"startTime":2204.8,"endTime":2206.68,"body":"attention."},{"startTime":2204.8,"endTime":2206.68,"body":"So we're seeing that the"},{"startTime":2206.68,"endTime":2209.8,"body":"ubiquity that we talked about in"},{"startTime":2206.68,"endTime":2209.8,"body":"our last episode is causing a"},{"startTime":2209.8,"endTime":2213.52,"body":"lot of ideology to now enter"},{"startTime":2209.8,"endTime":2213.52,"body":"this this space."},{"startTime":2214.12,"endTime":2218.72,"body":"And, uh, Grok referring to"},{"startTime":2214.12,"endTime":2218.72,"body":"itself as as \"MechaHitler\" of all"},{"startTime":2218.72,"endTime":2220.16,"body":"things too?"},{"startTime":2218.72,"endTime":2220.16,"body":"Horrifying, yeah."},{"startTime":2220.84,"endTime":2226.28,"body":"Umm, is this technically"},{"startTime":2220.84,"endTime":2226.28,"body":"feasible for an AI to align with"},{"startTime":2226.28,"endTime":2229.92,"body":"a particular ideology without"},{"startTime":2226.28,"endTime":2229.92,"body":"kind of breaking some of its own"},{"startTime":2229.92,"endTime":2231.76,"body":"underlying architecture here?"},{"startTime":2229.92,"endTime":2231.76,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":2231.76,"endTime":2235.24,"body":"So I mean, this gets to the idea"},{"startTime":2231.76,"endTime":2235.24,"body":"of the separation between the"},{"startTime":2235.24,"endTime":2238.84,"body":"data that represents reality and"},{"startTime":2235.24,"endTime":2238.84,"body":"then your view of that data,"},{"startTime":2238.84,"endTime":2241.52,"body":"and your - how your ideology"},{"startTime":2238.84,"endTime":2241.52,"body":"colours how you see that."},{"startTime":2241.76,"endTime":2243.84,"body":"And those are two quite"},{"startTime":2241.76,"endTime":2243.84,"body":"disconnected things."},{"startTime":2244.16,"endTime":2247.64,"body":"And I mean, there's a, a great"},{"startTime":2244.16,"endTime":2247.64,"body":"quote that's I often use when -"},{"startTime":2247.72,"endTime":2250.92,"body":"that Stephen Colbert said in"},{"startTime":2247.72,"endTime":2250.92,"body":"2006 - that \"Reality has a well"},{"startTime":2250.92,"endTime":2254.12,"body":"known liberal bias.\""},{"startTime":2250.92,"endTime":2254.12,"body":"And that's great because it sort"},{"startTime":2254.12,"endTime":2257.16,"body":"of points to the fact that, you"},{"startTime":2254.12,"endTime":2257.16,"body":"know, our window on things might"},{"startTime":2257.16,"endTime":2259.2,"body":"be different, but the actual"},{"startTime":2257.16,"endTime":2259.2,"body":"reality of what's going on,"},{"startTime":2259.4,"endTime":2261.2,"body":"generally the world is"},{"startTime":2259.4,"endTime":2261.2,"body":"progressive."},{"startTime":2261.2,"endTime":2264.4,"body":"Generally we're, we're seeing"},{"startTime":2261.2,"endTime":2264.4,"body":"progress and fairness increase"},{"startTime":2264.4,"endTime":2267.4,"body":"where, you know, the, the, the"},{"startTime":2264.4,"endTime":2267.4,"body":"growth, thankfully within our"},{"startTime":2267.4,"endTime":2270.84,"body":"age and, and democracy and"},{"startTime":2267.4,"endTime":2270.84,"body":"values has trended in that"},{"startTime":2270.84,"endTime":2272.92,"body":"direction."},{"startTime":2270.84,"endTime":2272.92,"body":"But there's been reaction"},{"startTime":2272.92,"endTime":2274.28,"body":"against that."},{"startTime":2272.92,"endTime":2274.28,"body":"And the way in which lots of"},{"startTime":2274.28,"endTime":2276.84,"body":"people see the world, the"},{"startTime":2274.28,"endTime":2276.84,"body":"ideology through which they look"},{"startTime":2276.84,"endTime":2278.68,"body":"at that reality is very"},{"startTime":2276.84,"endTime":2278.68,"body":"different."},{"startTime":2278.72,"endTime":2281.52,"body":"And so what's happening there is"},{"startTime":2278.72,"endTime":2281.52,"body":"that some of these models are"},{"startTime":2281.52,"endTime":2285.16,"body":"serving what they learned from"},{"startTime":2281.52,"endTime":2285.16,"body":"the data that they imbibed from"},{"startTime":2285.16,"endTime":2287.6,"body":"the world."},{"startTime":2285.16,"endTime":2287.6,"body":"And that includes perspectives,"},{"startTime":2287.88,"endTime":2290.44,"body":"uh, seen as liberal by, by these"},{"startTime":2287.88,"endTime":2290.44,"body":"kind of, uh, companies."},{"startTime":2290.44,"endTime":2293.84,"body":"And so, uh, that being reflected"},{"startTime":2290.44,"endTime":2293.84,"body":"back shouldn't be terribly"},{"startTime":2293.84,"endTime":2295.16,"body":"surprising, I suppose, in the"},{"startTime":2293.84,"endTime":2295.16,"body":"models."},{"startTime":2295.48,"endTime":2299.04,"body":"And so the way in which they've"},{"startTime":2295.48,"endTime":2299.04,"body":"sought to address this, Trump in"},{"startTime":2299.04,"endTime":2303.8,"body":"the case of, of the Truth Social"},{"startTime":2299.04,"endTime":2303.8,"body":"social media platform he has or"},{"startTime":2303.8,"endTime":2308.32,"body":"Musk in the case of Twitter, is"},{"startTime":2303.8,"endTime":2308.32,"body":"to add a stage of rules after"},{"startTime":2308.32,"endTime":2310.44,"body":"the training."},{"startTime":2308.32,"endTime":2310.44,"body":"So to train the model to build"},{"startTime":2310.44,"endTime":2312.32,"body":"it and then to give it"},{"startTime":2310.44,"endTime":2312.32,"body":"guidelines."},{"startTime":2312.88,"endTime":2315.56,"body":"Uh, the same kind of things that"},{"startTime":2312.88,"endTime":2315.56,"body":"might be used as guardrails or"},{"startTime":2315.56,"endTime":2319.32,"body":"as a constitution in, uh, in the"},{"startTime":2315.56,"endTime":2319.32,"body":"case of Anthropic, we mentioned"},{"startTime":2319.32,"endTime":2321.84,"body":"that many times before, but to"},{"startTime":2319.32,"endTime":2321.84,"body":"give it guidelines that say,"},{"startTime":2322.28,"endTime":2325.52,"body":"\"take this particular viewpoint\"."},{"startTime":2322.28,"endTime":2325.52,"body":"So process what you want,"},{"startTime":2325.52,"endTime":2328.12,"body":"process the question, come up"},{"startTime":2325.52,"endTime":2328.12,"body":"with the answer, but then colour"},{"startTime":2328.12,"endTime":2330.44,"body":"that answer to match a"},{"startTime":2328.12,"endTime":2330.44,"body":"particular ideology."},{"startTime":2330.44,"endTime":2334.24,"body":"And this was very clear in, uh,"},{"startTime":2330.44,"endTime":2334.24,"body":"the, the interventions that were"},{"startTime":2334.24,"endTime":2336.44,"body":"made with Grok."},{"startTime":2334.24,"endTime":2336.44,"body":"So, as I mentioned, lots of"},{"startTime":2336.44,"endTime":2339.84,"body":"users there were seeing the"},{"startTime":2336.44,"endTime":2339.84,"body":"\"wrong\" sort of answer from Grok"},{"startTime":2339.84,"endTime":2343.0,"body":"from Musk's point of view."},{"startTime":2339.84,"endTime":2343.0,"body":"So he put in place a series of"},{"startTime":2343.0,"endTime":2346.8,"body":"rules that Grok had to operate"},{"startTime":2343.0,"endTime":2346.8,"body":"within that involved consulting"},{"startTime":2346.8,"endTime":2350.0,"body":"his own prior tweets and"},{"startTime":2346.8,"endTime":2350.0,"body":"checking if he agrees with what"},{"startTime":2350.0,"endTime":2351.48,"body":"it's about to say."},{"startTime":2350.0,"endTime":2351.48,"body":"And you could see this very"},{"startTime":2351.48,"endTime":2354.08,"body":"clearly because it says it's"},{"startTime":2351.48,"endTime":2354.08,"body":"steps when it reasons."},{"startTime":2354.32,"endTime":2356.52,"body":"And you could see one of the"},{"startTime":2354.32,"endTime":2356.52,"body":"steps it was taken was checking"},{"startTime":2356.52,"endTime":2358.8,"body":"what Elon Musk has to say about"},{"startTime":2356.52,"endTime":2358.8,"body":"this issue, which is insane."},{"startTime":2359.36,"endTime":2362.68,"body":"Umm, but those kind of rules are"},{"startTime":2359.36,"endTime":2362.68,"body":"being pinned on at the end."},{"startTime":2362.72,"endTime":2365.8,"body":"So you're building the model on"},{"startTime":2362.72,"endTime":2365.8,"body":"the data of the world, you're"},{"startTime":2365.8,"endTime":2369.0,"body":"training it and on these kind of"},{"startTime":2365.8,"endTime":2369.0,"body":"relationships between data, it's"},{"startTime":2369.0,"endTime":2372.68,"body":"able to achieve some sort of"},{"startTime":2369.0,"endTime":2372.68,"body":"consensus view or some sort of"},{"startTime":2372.68,"endTime":2374.84,"body":"answer to your question."},{"startTime":2372.68,"endTime":2374.84,"body":"And then it's being asked at the"},{"startTime":2374.84,"endTime":2378.4,"body":"very last stage to pipe that"},{"startTime":2374.84,"endTime":2378.4,"body":"answer through an ideology."},{"startTime":2378.68,"endTime":2380.96,"body":"And that's why it's seeming so"},{"startTime":2378.68,"endTime":2380.96,"body":"crude."},{"startTime":2380.96,"endTime":2382.88,"body":"That's why it's seeming not a"},{"startTime":2380.96,"endTime":2382.88,"body":"good fit."},{"startTime":2383.2,"endTime":2387.28,"body":"And as we mentioned, Trump is"},{"startTime":2383.2,"endTime":2387.28,"body":"now trying to build his own and"},{"startTime":2387.28,"endTime":2389.36,"body":"do the same thing."},{"startTime":2387.28,"endTime":2389.36,"body":"So it'll, it remains to be seen"},{"startTime":2389.36,"endTime":2392.2,"body":"because it's only in development"},{"startTime":2389.36,"endTime":2392.2,"body":"at the moment, but he is"},{"startTime":2392.2,"endTime":2395.2,"body":"partnering or Truth Social is"},{"startTime":2392.2,"endTime":2395.2,"body":"partnering with the company"},{"startTime":2395.24,"endTime":2397.96,"body":"Perplexity, which we mentioned"},{"startTime":2395.24,"endTime":2397.96,"body":"earlier, uh, which has"},{"startTime":2397.96,"endTime":2402.64,"body":"evaluation at the moment, 120"},{"startTime":2397.96,"endTime":2402.64,"body":"times, uh, greater than or 120"},{"startTime":2402.64,"endTime":2404.48,"body":"times it's"},{"startTime":2402.64,"endTime":2404.48,"body":"it's projected sales, but"},{"startTime":2404.48,"endTime":2407.76,"body":"maybe part of what it's doing"},{"startTime":2404.48,"endTime":2407.76,"body":"there in this partnership with"},{"startTime":2407.76,"endTime":2411.0,"body":"Trump is to increase those sales"},{"startTime":2407.76,"endTime":2411.0,"body":"and to to try and address that."},{"startTime":2412.48,"endTime":2415.88,"body":"It, it seems to run totally"},{"startTime":2412.48,"endTime":2415.88,"body":"counter to the spirit of these"},{"startTime":2416.0,"endTime":2420.16,"body":"models that there are then kind"},{"startTime":2416.0,"endTime":2420.16,"body":"of tuned to be highly"},{"startTime":2420.16,"endTime":2423.52,"body":"deterministic and in line with"},{"startTime":2420.16,"endTime":2423.52,"body":"an ideology, let's say."},{"startTime":2423.8,"endTime":2427.68,"body":"And for be it political or, or,"},{"startTime":2423.8,"endTime":2427.68,"body":"or tech figures to kind of have"},{"startTime":2427.68,"endTime":2430.76,"body":"their, their finger on the"},{"startTime":2427.68,"endTime":2430.76,"body":"scales, umm, so to speak."},{"startTime":2431.16,"endTime":2436.44,"body":"I probably can't detract from"},{"startTime":2431.16,"endTime":2436.44,"body":"the perhaps growing confluence"},{"startTime":2436.44,"endTime":2440.12,"body":"of these large tech companies"},{"startTime":2436.44,"endTime":2440.12,"body":"and federal contracts as well"},{"startTime":2440.12,"endTime":2442.88,"body":"that they're kind of aligning"},{"startTime":2440.12,"endTime":2442.88,"body":"closer."},{"startTime":2443.52,"endTime":2445.8,"body":"All the while."},{"startTime":2443.52,"endTime":2445.8,"body":"I know that the the the Attorney"},{"startTime":2445.8,"endTime":2449.52,"body":"General of Missouri recently"},{"startTime":2445.8,"endTime":2449.52,"body":"threatened Google, Microsoft"},{"startTime":2449.56,"endTime":2452.52,"body":"OpenAI and Meta among among"},{"startTime":2449.56,"endTime":2452.52,"body":"others with investigation"},{"startTime":2452.52,"endTime":2457.2,"body":"because someone had asked these"},{"startTime":2452.52,"endTime":2457.2,"body":"models to rank the past five US"},{"startTime":2457.2,"endTime":2459.76,"body":"presidents in terms of"},{"startTime":2457.2,"endTime":2459.76,"body":"anti-Semitism."},{"startTime":2459.76,"endTime":2465.0,"body":"So Microsoft's Copilot refused"},{"startTime":2459.76,"endTime":2465.0,"body":"to answer and the others ranked"},{"startTime":2465.32,"endTime":2467.6,"body":"Trump last."},{"startTime":2465.32,"endTime":2467.6,"body":"And in response, the Attorney"},{"startTime":2467.6,"endTime":2470.96,"body":"General claimed they were"},{"startTime":2467.6,"endTime":2470.96,"body":"providing misleading answers to"},{"startTime":2470.96,"endTime":2473.64,"body":"a straightforward historical"},{"startTime":2470.96,"endTime":2473.64,"body":"question."},{"startTime":2473.76,"endTime":2475.8,"body":"Yeah."},{"startTime":2473.76,"endTime":2475.8,"body":"But I, I think the, the problem"},{"startTime":2475.8,"endTime":2478.76,"body":"really is that people do think"},{"startTime":2475.8,"endTime":2478.76,"body":"that that's a straightforward"},{"startTime":2478.76,"endTime":2481.4,"body":"historical question that these"},{"startTime":2478.76,"endTime":2481.4,"body":"things are not piped through"},{"startTime":2481.76,"endTime":2483.72,"body":"their, their kind of window"},{"startTime":2481.76,"endTime":2483.72,"body":"on reality"},{"startTime":2483.72,"endTime":2486.56,"body":"that ideology is."},{"startTime":2483.72,"endTime":2486.56,"body":"And I think that's something"},{"startTime":2486.56,"endTime":2489.08,"body":"that's, you know, in an"},{"startTime":2486.56,"endTime":2489.08,"body":"increasingly polarised world"},{"startTime":2489.08,"endTime":2490.6,"body":"that we live in."},{"startTime":2489.08,"endTime":2490.6,"body":"And especially that's, that's"},{"startTime":2490.6,"endTime":2493.76,"body":"heightened in the US as a"},{"startTime":2490.6,"endTime":2493.76,"body":"context versus here, thankfully"},{"startTime":2493.76,"endTime":2497.2,"body":"at the moment."},{"startTime":2493.76,"endTime":2497.2,"body":"And then, you know, it, it's not"},{"startTime":2497.2,"endTime":2499.92,"body":"surprising that people are"},{"startTime":2497.2,"endTime":2499.92,"body":"viewing it in these polarised"},{"startTime":2499.92,"endTime":2502.72,"body":"ways, expecting it to answer the"},{"startTime":2499.92,"endTime":2502.72,"body":"way they think, expecting it to"},{"startTime":2502.72,"endTime":2506.12,"body":"reflect their view of the world."},{"startTime":2502.72,"endTime":2506.12,"body":"And it's clear that at the"},{"startTime":2506.12,"endTime":2509.0,"body":"moment there, the, the models"},{"startTime":2506.12,"endTime":2509.0,"body":"are not doing a good job of"},{"startTime":2509.0,"endTime":2511.12,"body":"that."},{"startTime":2509.0,"endTime":2511.12,"body":"And the solution to try and make"},{"startTime":2511.12,"endTime":2513.84,"body":"them do it is itself problematic"},{"startTime":2511.12,"endTime":2513.84,"body":"here."},{"startTime":2513.84,"endTime":2517.2,"body":"It's, it's not leading to a, a"},{"startTime":2513.84,"endTime":2517.2,"body":"very smooth experience for the"},{"startTime":2517.2,"endTime":2519.76,"body":"people using it."},{"startTime":2517.2,"endTime":2519.76,"body":"So it's an interesting, um,"},{"startTime":2520.08,"endTime":2523.28,"body":"situation because it points us"},{"startTime":2520.08,"endTime":2523.28,"body":"again to the fact that in the,"},{"startTime":2523.28,"endTime":2526.16,"body":"the economic and political"},{"startTime":2523.28,"endTime":2526.16,"body":"realities that these large"},{"startTime":2526.16,"endTime":2528.56,"body":"monopolistic companies have to"},{"startTime":2526.16,"endTime":2528.56,"body":"operate within at the moment,"},{"startTime":2528.8,"endTime":2530.6,"body":"they're going to have to keep"},{"startTime":2528.8,"endTime":2530.6,"body":"these people happy."},{"startTime":2531.0,"endTime":2533.72,"body":"You know, so Musk, until he left"},{"startTime":2531.0,"endTime":2533.72,"body":"the, the prominent role he had"},{"startTime":2533.72,"endTime":2536.32,"body":"in the US government had"},{"startTime":2533.72,"endTime":2536.32,"body":"outsized power and a lot of"},{"startTime":2536.32,"endTime":2538.04,"body":"people needed to align with his"},{"startTime":2536.32,"endTime":2538.04,"body":"view."},{"startTime":2538.12,"endTime":2540.64,"body":"Trump is still there and is"},{"startTime":2538.12,"endTime":2540.64,"body":"still requiring these companies"},{"startTime":2540.64,"endTime":2544.2,"body":"to come and pay homage to him."},{"startTime":2540.64,"endTime":2544.2,"body":"And so there's a lot of, of"},{"startTime":2544.2,"endTime":2547.84,"body":"pressure on them to adjust their"},{"startTime":2544.2,"endTime":2547.84,"body":"models in these various ways."},{"startTime":2547.88,"endTime":2552.0,"body":"There's a lot of pressure,"},{"startTime":2547.88,"endTime":2552.0,"body":"again, I think for lack of"},{"startTime":2552.0,"endTime":2556.08,"body":"regulation for, you know,"},{"startTime":2552.0,"endTime":2556.08,"body":"solutions that, uh, will allow"},{"startTime":2556.08,"endTime":2559.72,"body":"these companies to have the fair"},{"startTime":2556.08,"endTime":2559.72,"body":"use, so to speak, of, uh, all of"},{"startTime":2559.72,"endTime":2563.24,"body":"the data that they, they took"},{"startTime":2559.72,"endTime":2563.24,"body":"in, uh, without consequence."},{"startTime":2563.32,"endTime":2568.28,"body":"Uh, there's a really"},{"startTime":2563.32,"endTime":2568.28,"body":"problematic, uh, space in which"},{"startTime":2568.28,"endTime":2571.04,"body":"all of this is operating, I"},{"startTime":2568.28,"endTime":2571.04,"body":"think, which, which is a"},{"startTime":2571.68,"endTime":2574.16,"body":"monopolistic one, where a small"},{"startTime":2571.68,"endTime":2574.16,"body":"amount of companies - we've"},{"startTime":2574.16,"endTime":2577.0,"body":"mentioned this several times -"},{"startTime":2574.16,"endTime":2577.0,"body":"are vastly powerful, are"},{"startTime":2577.0,"endTime":2580.0,"body":"increasing in power, and are"},{"startTime":2577.0,"endTime":2580.0,"body":"aligning that power with the"},{"startTime":2580.4,"endTime":2583.4,"body":"hegemonic power of the US and"},{"startTime":2580.4,"endTime":2583.4,"body":"the current president of the US."},{"startTime":2583.4,"endTime":2586.36,"body":"And so that's not good for human"},{"startTime":2583.4,"endTime":2586.36,"body":"society."},{"startTime":2586.36,"endTime":2588.36,"body":"It's certainly not good for"},{"startTime":2586.36,"endTime":2588.36,"body":"American Society, but it's"},{"startTime":2588.36,"endTime":2589.88,"body":"increasingly pressurising us in"},{"startTime":2588.36,"endTime":2589.88,"body":"Europe too."},{"startTime":2590.2,"endTime":2593.52,"body":"It is and it seems to be also"},{"startTime":2590.2,"endTime":2593.52,"body":"feeding that hype machine and"},{"startTime":2593.52,"endTime":2596.44,"body":"feeding that sense of there"},{"startTime":2593.52,"endTime":2596.44,"body":"being a bubble around this."},{"startTime":2597.08,"endTime":2600.56,"body":"I think that covers most of the"},{"startTime":2597.08,"endTime":2600.56,"body":"topics we wanted to cover today"},{"startTime":2600.56,"endTime":2602.4,"body":"at Dónal."},{"startTime":2600.56,"endTime":2602.4,"body":"But I think the final question I"},{"startTime":2602.4,"endTime":2606.44,"body":"have for you today is that with"},{"startTime":2602.4,"endTime":2606.44,"body":"new models like GPT-5, but other"},{"startTime":2606.44,"endTime":2609.2,"body":"ones that are released, being"},{"startTime":2606.44,"endTime":2609.2,"body":"released at the moment profess"},{"startTime":2609.2,"endTime":2612.88,"body":"to have a \"PhD level of"},{"startTime":2609.2,"endTime":2612.88,"body":"intelligence\", would they pass"},{"startTime":2612.88,"endTime":2616.64,"body":"their PhD viva on current on"},{"startTime":2612.88,"endTime":2616.64,"body":"current evidence?"},{"startTime":2617.0,"endTime":2619.32,"body":"Yeah, I, I don't think they, no,"},{"startTime":2617.0,"endTime":2619.32,"body":"no, they wouldn't."},{"startTime":2619.4,"endTime":2621.64,"body":"I, I saw there was lots of"},{"startTime":2619.4,"endTime":2621.64,"body":"commentary, of course, on that"},{"startTime":2621.64,"endTime":2624.2,"body":"particular thing happening"},{"startTime":2621.64,"endTime":2624.2,"body":"within spaces on social media."},{"startTime":2624.2,"endTime":2627.08,"body":"And I actually had a discussion"},{"startTime":2624.2,"endTime":2627.08,"body":"myself on, on BlueSky about"},{"startTime":2627.08,"endTime":2628.68,"body":"this."},{"startTime":2627.08,"endTime":2628.68,"body":"I think part of what's happening"},{"startTime":2628.68,"endTime":2632.44,"body":"there is that if you're not an"},{"startTime":2628.68,"endTime":2632.44,"body":"expert in a particular field and"},{"startTime":2632.44,"endTime":2636.12,"body":"you have a conversation with an"},{"startTime":2632.44,"endTime":2636.12,"body":"AI about that field, it's going"},{"startTime":2636.12,"endTime":2639.32,"body":"to bring together lots of ideas"},{"startTime":2636.12,"endTime":2639.32,"body":"that you weren't aware of."},{"startTime":2639.32,"endTime":2641.16,"body":"It's going to be able to"},{"startTime":2639.32,"endTime":2641.16,"body":"synthesise stuff quite well."},{"startTime":2641.52,"endTime":2644.76,"body":"And it's going to appear to you"},{"startTime":2641.52,"endTime":2644.76,"body":"like it is a PhD level"},{"startTime":2644.76,"endTime":2647.48,"body":"intelligence in, in that field"},{"startTime":2644.76,"endTime":2647.48,"body":"because it's bringing you lots"},{"startTime":2647.48,"endTime":2650.4,"body":"of connections that seem to be"},{"startTime":2647.48,"endTime":2650.4,"body":"deep insights that you didn't"},{"startTime":2650.4,"endTime":2652.28,"body":"have before because of your lack"},{"startTime":2650.4,"endTime":2652.28,"body":"of expertise."},{"startTime":2652.72,"endTime":2655.64,"body":"But if you are an expert in a"},{"startTime":2652.72,"endTime":2655.64,"body":"particular field and you talk to"},{"startTime":2655.64,"endTime":2657.84,"body":"us, you're going to find a lot"},{"startTime":2655.64,"endTime":2657.84,"body":"of flaws very quickly."},{"startTime":2657.88,"endTime":2661.56,"body":"It isn't really a PhD level"},{"startTime":2657.88,"endTime":2661.56,"body":"expertise in every field, but it"},{"startTime":2661.56,"endTime":2665.64,"body":"has the capability to synthesise"},{"startTime":2661.56,"endTime":2665.64,"body":"information in valuable ways."},{"startTime":2665.64,"endTime":2669.12,"body":"There's no question that, uh,"},{"startTime":2665.64,"endTime":2669.12,"body":"these, these models are, are"},{"startTime":2669.2,"endTime":2670.92,"body":"useful there."},{"startTime":2669.2,"endTime":2670.92,"body":"There's lots of utility that"},{"startTime":2670.92,"endTime":2672.96,"body":"they have."},{"startTime":2670.92,"endTime":2672.96,"body":"They're certainly able to help"},{"startTime":2673.16,"endTime":2675.52,"body":"bring things together, help find"},{"startTime":2673.16,"endTime":2675.52,"body":"patterns that we were not able"},{"startTime":2675.52,"endTime":2678.96,"body":"to find ourselves."},{"startTime":2675.52,"endTime":2678.96,"body":"But the idea that they're so"},{"startTime":2678.96,"endTime":2681.8,"body":"close to this \"AGI\" concept and"},{"startTime":2678.96,"endTime":2681.8,"body":"that they're, they're this kind"},{"startTime":2681.8,"endTime":2684.44,"body":"of level of intelligence, it's"},{"startTime":2681.8,"endTime":2684.44,"body":"not borne out either by the"},{"startTime":2684.44,"endTime":2687.44,"body":"experience of people who are PhD"},{"startTime":2684.44,"endTime":2687.44,"body":"level experts who are testing"},{"startTime":2687.44,"endTime":2689.6,"body":"them out or indeed by those"},{"startTime":2687.44,"endTime":2689.6,"body":"tests that we mentioned"},{"startTime":2689.6,"endTime":2691.4,"body":"previously."},{"startTime":2689.6,"endTime":2691.4,"body":"So we would expect if that's the"},{"startTime":2691.4,"endTime":2694.4,"body":"case, that those benchmarks that"},{"startTime":2691.4,"endTime":2694.4,"body":"we mentioned a few episodes ago,"},{"startTime":2694.4,"endTime":2697.2,"body":"Humanity's Last Exam and those"},{"startTime":2694.4,"endTime":2697.2,"body":"other things that we would see a"},{"startTime":2697.2,"endTime":2699.88,"body":"huge rise in those - we haven't."},{"startTime":2697.2,"endTime":2699.88,"body":"So these new models have not"},{"startTime":2699.88,"endTime":2703.0,"body":"shot up in the in the their"},{"startTime":2699.88,"endTime":2703.0,"body":"performance there either."},{"startTime":2703.16,"endTime":2706.56,"body":"So again, we're saying this"},{"startTime":2703.16,"endTime":2706.56,"body":"constantly... our refrain must"},{"startTime":2706.56,"endTime":2709.8,"body":"always be in this podcast that"},{"startTime":2706.56,"endTime":2709.8,"body":"we are critical in our view of"},{"startTime":2709.8,"endTime":2711.8,"body":"these technologies."},{"startTime":2709.8,"endTime":2711.8,"body":"This technology is"},{"startTime":2711.8,"endTime":2714.6,"body":"transformative."},{"startTime":2711.8,"endTime":2714.6,"body":"If there is a bubble or not, if"},{"startTime":2714.6,"endTime":2717.2,"body":"the bubble pops tomorrow, they"},{"startTime":2714.6,"endTime":2717.2,"body":"will still have wrought"},{"startTime":2717.2,"endTime":2719.36,"body":"transformation on society."},{"startTime":2717.2,"endTime":2719.36,"body":"That is going to happen."},{"startTime":2719.4,"endTime":2721.48,"body":"We're already going to see"},{"startTime":2719.4,"endTime":2721.48,"body":"displaced jobs."},{"startTime":2721.52,"endTime":2723.8,"body":"We're going to see vastly"},{"startTime":2721.52,"endTime":2723.8,"body":"changed areas of work."},{"startTime":2723.92,"endTime":2726.72,"body":"For lots of us, this will touch"},{"startTime":2723.92,"endTime":2726.72,"body":"our lives regardless of whether"},{"startTime":2726.72,"endTime":2730.76,"body":"AGI happens or not."},{"startTime":2726.72,"endTime":2730.76,"body":"But we need to, as it continues"},{"startTime":2730.76,"endTime":2733.84,"body":"to unfold, be a little bit"},{"startTime":2730.76,"endTime":2733.84,"body":"careful about reading into the"},{"startTime":2733.84,"endTime":2737.44,"body":"hype too much and always kind of"},{"startTime":2733.84,"endTime":2737.44,"body":"uncritically accepting what is"},{"startTime":2737.44,"endTime":2740.84,"body":"being said, especially by people"},{"startTime":2737.44,"endTime":2740.84,"body":"whose vested interest is in"},{"startTime":2740.88,"endTime":2744.6,"body":"making us think that that AI is"},{"startTime":2740.88,"endTime":2744.6,"body":"or that AGI is just about to"},{"startTime":2744.6,"endTime":2746.28,"body":"happen..."},{"startTime":2744.6,"endTime":2746.28,"body":"That superintelligence - that"},{"startTime":2746.32,"endTime":2749.88,"body":"\"unless\" that's in that headline"},{"startTime":2746.32,"endTime":2749.88,"body":"from The Economist - that"},{"startTime":2749.88,"endTime":2752.2,"body":"that's always just on the cusp"},{"startTime":2749.88,"endTime":2752.2,"body":"of happening."},{"startTime":2752.44,"endTime":2754.32,"body":"And if we just hang on, we'll,"},{"startTime":2752.44,"endTime":2754.32,"body":"we'll see it."},{"startTime":2754.32,"endTime":2759.08,"body":"We need to be a little bit more"},{"startTime":2754.32,"endTime":2759.08,"body":"careful to see exactly what the"},{"startTime":2759.08,"endTime":2761.4,"body":"capabilities are, exactly how it"},{"startTime":2759.08,"endTime":2761.4,"body":"might touch our lives."},{"startTime":2761.68,"endTime":2764.8,"body":"And but we can rest assured that"},{"startTime":2761.68,"endTime":2764.8,"body":"whether this is something that"},{"startTime":2764.8,"endTime":2770.36,"body":"is like the Dot Com bubble was and"},{"startTime":2764.8,"endTime":2770.36,"body":"passes away and seems to to pop,"},{"startTime":2770.44,"endTime":2771.84,"body":"it will still have changed"},{"startTime":2770.44,"endTime":2771.84,"body":"things."},{"startTime":2771.84,"endTime":2774.16,"body":"It will still have built a lot"},{"startTime":2771.84,"endTime":2774.16,"body":"of infrastructure and built a"},{"startTime":2774.16,"endTime":2779.2,"body":"lot of relationships and a lot"},{"startTime":2774.16,"endTime":2779.2,"body":"of new ways in which we connect"},{"startTime":2779.2,"endTime":2780.48,"body":"with one another and do our"},{"startTime":2779.2,"endTime":2780.48,"body":"work."},{"startTime":2780.48,"endTime":2781.92,"body":"And that's what's going to last"},{"startTime":2780.48,"endTime":2781.92,"body":"beyond this."},{"startTime":2782.76,"endTime":2784.0,"body":"That's a good place to leave it,"},{"startTime":2782.76,"endTime":2784.0,"body":"Dónal."},{"startTime":2784.0,"endTime":2785.24,"body":"Thanks very much."},{"startTime":2784.0,"endTime":2785.24,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":2787.48,"endTime":2790.04,"body":"In our next episode, we hope to"},{"startTime":2787.48,"endTime":2790.04,"body":"incorporate questions from you"},{"startTime":2790.04,"endTime":2792.64,"body":"about some of the topics that"},{"startTime":2790.04,"endTime":2792.64,"body":"we've discussed on the podcast"},{"startTime":2792.64,"endTime":2795.48,"body":"or some that you found"},{"startTime":2792.64,"endTime":2795.48,"body":"interesting yourself in your own"},{"startTime":2795.48,"endTime":2798.32,"body":"reading about AI."},{"startTime":2795.48,"endTime":2798.32,"body":"So get in touch at"},{"startTime":2798.32,"endTime":2801.84,"body":"hello@enoughaboutai.com -"},{"startTime":2798.32,"endTime":2801.84,"body":"and if you've liked what you"},{"startTime":2801.84,"endTime":2804.92,"body":"heard, leave us a rating and"},{"startTime":2801.84,"endTime":2804.92,"body":"subscribe to our podcast online!"}]}