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"An Outside Context Problem was the sort of thing most civilizations encountered just once, and which they tended to encounter rather in the same way a sentence encountered a full stop." — Iain M. Banks, Excession. This podcast discusses challenges that fall into the outside context with the innovators and visionaries who are the forefront of technological change. It considers the big picture of technology, and why this matters for the future of human civilisation.

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The New Invisible Hand: Machine Learning, Human Earning

November 20, 2025 • Season 1 • Episode 14

In Episode 14 of The Outside Context Elliot Hentov, chief macro policy strategist at State Street Investment Management, discusses the intersection of AI and macroeconomics. He explores the current state of AI's impact on productivity, investment trends, and the implications for inflation and economic growth. The conversation also shifts into the geopolitical competition surrounding AI dominance, particularly between the US and China, and concludes with reflections on future challenges and opportunities presented by AI.

Key Takeaways:

The impact of AI on productivity is still being assessed.
Investment in AI has surged significantly in recent years.
AI has the potential to be deflationary by lowering costs.
The geopolitical race for AI dominance is ongoing and complex.
Countries that innovate in AI will likely benefit economically.
The labour market is experiencing mixed effects from AI adoption.
Increased longevity due to AI advancements poses challenges for society.
The future of AI investment may lead to both successes and failures.

Chapters:

00:00 - Introduction to AI and Macro Economics

03:11 - The Current State of AI and Productivity

05:44 - Sectoral Impacts of AI on Employment

08:51 - Investment Trends in AI

12:04 - Macroeconomic Implications of AI Investment

14:53 - Geopolitical Competition in AI

17:52 - Future Challenges and Opportunities with AI

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