Northern Sea Route - The Polar Silk Road

Northern Arctic shipping route — often called the Northern Sea Route (NSR) or Northeast Passage — which connects the Far East (Asia) to Europe via the Arctic Ocean north of Russia is one of the most strategically significant emerging maritime corridors of the 21st century. The Northern Arctic Route represents one of the most significant shifts in global shipping geography since the opening of the Suez Canal. It offers substantial time and fuel savings on the Asia-Europe corridor and direct access to Arctic resource exports, but remains limited by ice, cost, infrastructure, and politics. Over the next few decades, its role will likely grow — not as a wholesale replacement, but as a strategic alternative and a new axis of maritime trade in a warming world.

Barry describes the route, challenges facing it and a recent strategically important containership passage marking the start of a potential new express service.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00: 0:01

A very warm welcome everyone to the Maritime Education Podcast. My name is Barry Sadler, and I'd like to welcome those of you who are trying us out for the first time. Welcome to our podcast. And for those of you who are regular listeners or returning listeners, welcome back. I'm really glad you took the time to download and listen to our podcast today. Which I'd like to talk about the Northern Arctic Shipping Route. Now, the reason I'd like to talk about the Northern Arctic shipping route was the recent voyage made by a container vessel called the Istanbul Bridge, which arrived in Felixstow on the thirteenth of October this year, that's just about a week ago after transiting this Northern Sea route. Now Northern Sea Route is a strategically important route between the Far East and Europe. Northern Sea Route is seen as the third artery of major shipping. That is of course after Suez and Panama, although as we know, Suez currently going through a somewhat quieter period due to the problems at the southern end of the Red Sea. But nonetheless, as far as the Far East to Europe is concerned, there's one current major route, and that runs from the Far East down through the Indian Ocean. Now it can run through the Red Sea, through Syries, through the Mediterranean and up and into Europe, or as is happening at the moment, due to, as I say, the problems at the southern end of the Red Sea, it runs into the Indian Ocean around the Cape of Good Hope and then up the west coast of Africa and approaches Europe from that direction. Now, this route is obviously a well-trodden route. Both the Suez and Cape Routes are known very very well to shippers, they're known well to those who use what we call liner routes, and they are far east routes that have been in place and have been established for many years now. Some people hear the phrase liner route and think, what is a liner route? Because a liner typically sounds like a passenger vessel running on a regular route. Liner can be applied to any ship running a regular route. So the liner trade across the Atlantic would normally refer to passenger vessels that used to trade regularly between Europe and America as almost a eight-day ferry service, really. And so a liner route establishes a line. Sometimes known as loops, the reason that we've adopted loops is loops tend to not only encompass the liner trade but also encompass companies that are part of that loop. So instead of mentioning four or five companies that are part of a liner route between the Far East and Europe, we call it a loop. We call it a conglomerate of companies that have come together in order to provide a single service, which means that that liner service between the two areas becomes very, very efficient. So we have a liner service between the Far East and Europe. Obviously it's been running for many many years. Trade between the Far East and Europe historically goes back hundreds of years. But nevertheless, the current modern liner routes carry huge amounts of cargo. They are very, very significant in global trade and they ensure that goods that are produced in the Far East, in particular goods that are produced in China, make their way safely, efficiently and as economically as possible to northern Europe and indeed beyond. So the line of route between the Far East and Europe, as I say, traditionally really goes across the Indian Ocean following one of those two alternatives. But starting off in September this year, and as I said, finishing in the on the 13th of October, we had a liner service that departed from Ningbo in China and arrived in Felixstow in the UK following the Northern Arctic shipping route. Now the Northern Arctic shipping route fundamentally connects the Far Eastern Europe via the Arctic Ocean to the north of Russia and is becoming one of the most strategically significant emerging maritime corridors of the 21st century. The Northern Sea route is the Arctic Maritime Passage that fundamentally runs along Russia's northern coastline. Now the reason it runs so close, of course, to Russia's northern coastline is it follows the route while staying as far south of the main ice cap as it can possibly run. If you do stray too far to the north of Russia's northern coastline, then obviously you're going to come across some very, very thick permanent ice, the ice cap itself, which even with an icebreaker escort is going to make it difficult for you to navigate. So there's a very very specific route that is followed in order to make use of the seasonal availability of this route. Now, why is the route seasonal? Well the route's seasonal, of course, because of the amount of ice that accumulates there. Now, at the moment, July to October is what they would call open water season. This window is increasing and is now potentially actually five months wide. Global warming means that the ice has retreated some 40% since the 1980s. So this open water season where navigation through the northern route can be done without an icebreaker escort, currently July to October, but this window is increasing. Partial access can be gained May to June, November to December, but you would probably need an icebreaker escort to get you through. Between January, January and April, the route is generally closed to regular shipping. So where does this route go? Well, this route starts off obviously in the Far East and then heads northeast towards the Bering Strait. Now Bering Strait's an interesting area of sea. It's the closest point between Russia in Russia's eastern point and the United States western point in the form of Alaska. It's only 51 miles wide, so it's a uh it's a fairly tight strait. It's about 90 meters deep, so it's nice and deep, it'll take the uh the deepest vessels through there. Interestingly, within the strait itself, you've got the Diomede Islands. So you've got Little Diomede that belongs to the US, and Big Diomede that belongs to Russia, and these islands are actually only 2.4 miles apart. Now when uh relations between Russia and the US are good, then the residents of those islands will actually visit each island. So they'll go from one to the other, mainly for traditional festivals and things like that. But if relations start to sour, then movement between the islands is seen as less of a possibility. The Russian coast of the Bering Strait has been a closed military zone for some time now, though organized trips are sometimes made there. Even if you arrive without announcing yourself and you do have a visa, you may still be arrested on that coast. So it is a very, very closed military zone there in the Bering Sea. So back to this uh this northern route goes up through the Bering Strait and into what's called the Chickchi Sea. That's the sea directly to the north of the Bering Strait. Uh the Bering Sea to the south of the Bering Strait, the Chukchi Sea to the north of the Bering Strait. You go through there and then you start to hug the coast of Russia in order to stay in the relatively ice-free waters of this northern route. You follow the Russian coastline into what's known as the East Siberian Sea. You then go south of the new Siberian Islands, which are Russian islands. So not only have you entered Russia's exclusive economic zone, which of course an exclusive economic zone is the seas within 200 miles of the national baseline, but once you start to pass through some of these passages, you are entering Russian territorial waters. Now, this is significant when it comes to the management of the Northern Sea route. So you pass through a strait that's uh that's through there called the Volkitsky Strait. Um, that's the strait that runs between the uh the Siberian Islands and uh a mainland Russia. You go through there into the Laptev Sea, and then you keep going and you pass again through Russian territorial waters. The Severna Islands, which belong to Russia, you pass through the strait to the south of that. Now you then go into what's known as the Kara Sea. Again, the Kara Sea is part of Russia and you pass well within their territorial waters as you go through something called the Kara Gate. Now the Kara Gate is a very, very narrow passage between mainland Russia and Novaya, which is a very large Russian island to the north. The Kairagate marks your passage into what's known as the Barents Sea. And although as you pass through the Kara Gate you are still within Russian territorial waters, you are fundamentally heading towards relatively open seas. The Barents Sea itself basically marks the boundary between going from Russian exclusive economic zone into the Finnish exclusion economic zone and fundamentally entering European waters. Now the actual northern sea route itself is seen as that bit of the passage that lies between the sea just to the north of the Bering Strait and the Kara Gate. Once you enter the Barents Sea, you are actually entering a well trodden, relatively familiar area of passage. Of course, once you've reached the sea off of Finland, you then go around the top of Scandinavia, head south down through the North Sea, and then you are pretty much in northern Europe. Now the voyage that we described of the Istanbul Bridge fundamentally ran directly to Felixdow in the United Kingdom, so it linked the UK and it linked the Far East using the Northern Sea routes. It is significant to note that this route does pass through both Russian territorial and the Russian exclusive economic zone because fundamentally this means that Russia can control this sea passage by asserting regulations over it. Now Russia does this using a fairly unique part of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. This is United Nations Convention Article two hundred three four. Article two hundred three four of UNTLOS covers ice covered areas and basically what it says is that coastal states have the right to adopt and enforce non-discriminatory laws and regulations for the prevention, reduction and control of marine pollution from vessels in ice covered areas within the limits of their exclusive economic zone. So as you are passing within 200 nautical miles of Russia, you are passing within their exclusive economical zone. Where laws and regulations can be used by Russia, should be used to prevent marine pollution, but can be used in order to regulate traffic through the area, and that's how Russia uses unklos article two hundred three four. Now Russia itself grants permits, monitors traffic and will enforce legislation on ships using the Northern Passage. Ships must submit a navigational plan to the Russian authorities and in most cases will need to engage some sort of ice pilot or icebreaker escort if that is required. Russia applies its national laws and collects fees for icebreaker services and pilotage within these areas. And it's that UNTLOS Convention that allows Russia to do this. Now because you actually need permission therefore to use that northern route from Russia, this sometimes means that permission is not granted to some ships or flagships that Russia doesn't particularly want to see it navigating within its particularly sensitive areas along that northern route. Particularly ports like Mamansk are strategically very important to Russia. Not just because they can be used to control the Northern Sea route, but they contain sensitive Russian ships and activities that Russia would prefer the international community not to be able to snoop upon. So Russia does control this route using that UNTLOS article. Now, despite the obvious advantages that the North Sea route carries, and of course those obvious advantages are a reduction in distance. So for instance, Tokyo to Rotterdam is about 13,000 kilometers via the North Sea route and about 20,000 kilometers via the traditional Suez route. So it's about a 35% shorter distance that you transit, and this of course, major fuel savings, major CO2 reduction, and most importantly, in a liner service, the time efficiency. So the loop can advertise this as being an express service because it potentially shaves 10 to 14 days off a typical Europe to Asia transit. But despite this lower fuel consumption, despite this ability to bring goods from the Far East to Northern Europe in an express form, there are some real barriers to it being used by a lot of shipping companies. One of those barriers is the unpredictability of the ice. Even in the summer, you can get sudden freeze events in this part of the world, which basically means that where the ice seasonally should be open to allow any ship to transit the area, not just an ice class ship and not a ship with an icebreaker, even though the season allows it, a sudden freeze event can create ice that poses a risk to ships that are not ice class. There are high costs associated with this fee, this route, and in particular insurance fees and insurance premiums will increase when you're navigating in what is essentially fairly hazardous waters, and of course, you're navigating very, very close to Russia. Icebreaker escort fees and pilotage fees are also very expensive. There are infrastructure gaps, and despite the implementation of the polar code in 2017, there is limited salvage and tug support in this part of the world and relatively sparse search and rescue coverage. Now the polar code has been adopted in this part of the world, so technically speaking, you should have search and rescue coverage as you use the Northern Transit, but it's not guaranteed. It's not guaranteed because fundamentally we are reliant on that search and rescue coverage coming from Russia. And although Russia does very, very does take its search and rescue responsibilities seriously, geopolitical challenges may make it somewhat difficult to obtain timely search and rescue if it's required. We've talked about the regulatory complexity of the area in that it does come under Russian control as part of its exercise of the UNCLOS of the UNCLOS article. So there are some real hoops to jump through when you go through it. This is, of course, an environmentally sensitive area and therefore very, very much subject to the environmental constraints of the polar code, which essentially prohibit the use of certain fuels up there, and also change the wording of Marpole somewhat so that the distances from land that we normally apply under Marpole are also distances applied to the nearest ice or fast ice. Of course, we keep talking about Russia, but geopolitical tension, um particularly Western sanctions on Russia since 2022, have constrained investment and cooperation in this route, and Russia has been reluctant to allow lots of ships on western loops to use the passage, using its powers to prevent permits from being issued. But nonetheless, um the Istanbul Bridge, the Panamaxize container ship, did make the first line of voyage this year, as I say, September to October. Istanbul's voyage took about 20 days in total, it covered approximately 7,500 nautical miles and saved all of that fuel. It crossed the whole entire length of the Northern Sea route within the Russian Antarctic walkers in about waters in about five days, and it did not use an icebreaker escort because, of course, September and October are still within the open sea seasonal part of the ice up there. Cargo itself was approximately 4,920 foot equivalent containers loaded with all the regular goods that come from the Far East. Electric vehicles, electric goods, solar panels, basically all the primary stuff that is built in the Far East was in those containers. And as we've said, it's part of the China Europe Arctic Express. So it goes to the UK, Germany, Poland and the Netherlands as part of this loop. It's seen as a milestone in container shipping via the Arctic because although there have been container ships transiting mainly between Russia and China before this is the first real direct China to Europe liner voyage that has been made through the area. So what's going to happen in the future when it comes to the Northern Sea route? Well, the Northern Sea route itself is an emerging route. We need to be aware of the fact that it's not fully established mainly because of the geopolitical hurdles that lie ahead. But it is an emerging route. At the end of the day, we are looking at the Northern Sea route in order to decrease the amount of fuel that is used to transport goods between China and mainland Europe, and at the end of the day, regulate a service which for a long time has taken the longer, more oil expensive routes via the Cape. It should become increasingly viable as Arctic Sea diminishes. Now that's a bit sad because obviously this is due to global warming and the Arctic ice is retreating. But as the Arctic sea ice does diminish, this will open up the route for longer and longer, allowing more ships to take it, and therefore allowing less fuel to be burnt on this particular line of route. It's been dubbed the polar Silk Road by China because it's central to China's development belt and an initiative for China to open up this route to obviously promote, encourage and continue trade with Europe with out the long passage round the Cape and flying the flag once again for reductions in greenhouse gas levels by reducing the amount of fuel that's actually burnt between those two sea areas. It is worth bearing in mind that when we look at the future, we will start to put ships through what is essentially a very environmentally sensitive area. And without a proper framework in place to control greenhouse gases from ships, if we do start to increase the number of ships that use the Northern Sea route, we do put this ecologically fragile area under quite a lot of strain. One balances the other, perhaps. Using less fuel by taking this northern route may offset the carbon or the extra carbon that is put into the atmosphere around the Northern Sea route and the sensitive sea areas surrounding it. Hopefully Russia will accept that trade between itself and China and indeed itself and Europe will eventually return to normal and that Northern Sea route will provide a key liner route that encompasses not just goods coming from China to Europe but goods coming from China to Russia to Europe and vice versa, opening up a new trade route. However, before this happens, it's important that the international community and especially the IMO regroup and try to put in place measures that reduce the greenhouse gas and CO2 carbon footprints of ships so that if this sea route does become more viable and does become busier, we do not harm this already fragile environment. Hopefully that's given you a bit of an insight into the northern Arctic route. It does offer substantial time and fuel savings on the Asia Europe corridor. Direct access to Arctic resource exports remains limited by ice cost and infrastructure, and of course, mainly at the moment by geopolitics. However, over the next few decades, experts do have the opinion that its role will likely grow. Not as a wholesale replacement for the route between China and the far and um Europe, but as a strategic alternative and a new axis of maritime trade in a warming world. Thank you very, very much for listening to the podcast today. I hope you've got a better understanding of that uh of that rather unique passage that was taken by the Istanbul Bridge a couple of weeks ago. And we look forward to welcoming you back to the Maritime Education Podcast in the very near future. I'm Barry Sadler. Have a great day, everyone.