Madrid '26: Sinner just too CLUTCH for Jodar, Can Fils stop him?

The inaugural meeting between Jannik Sinner and Rafael Jodar didn't disappoint with the World No. 1 taking a tight two set win vs the 19-year-old phenom. The win sets a semifinal clash in Madrid between Sinner and Arthur Fils who is also undefeated so far on the clay this year. Can Fils snap Sinner's ATP 1000 win streak to reach his maiden Masters' final? 

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The highly anticipated first meeting between world number one Yannick Center and 19-year-old Phenom Rafael Hodar did not disappoint. Now it didn't go three sets like I predicted, but we were awfully close. Yannick shut off the Spaniard 6276 to complete a set of reaching all nine Masters 1000 semifinals. I'll break down Center's clutch quarterfinal win and look ahead to the blockbuster semifinal between Yannick and Arthur Feast. Hola, me llamo Christian Bast night y bienvenido a Christian's court donde cubre el tenis desde todo los Angulos. If you have not yet already, make sure you subscribe and click the notification bell so you're notified whenever I post my next Madrid update video. So this match between Yannick and Rafa felt much tatter than a 6-2-7-6. I'll tell you that. Yannick had to work so so hard to hold serve for his opening three service games of the match. Hodar displayed his strong returning skills and was able to neutralize the center serve very well. Yannick was not able to get him on the defensive as much, and center was pushed to deu all three opening service games of his. And he faced a break point at 1-2, but he was able to save it with the strong inside out forehand. And the inside out forehand, by the way, has been a really important shot for center this entire clay swing. I noticed it a lot. He used it well against Carlos Alcaraz in the Monte Carlo final, and he, of course, used it really well here against this Spaniard, Rafa Hodar. But to me, the main theme of this match was just Yannick's clutchness. And I think Rafa has a bit of clutchness himself too already. As Hodar, he played three sloppy points in a row at two all to get down love 40. And then he served two really quality first serves in a row to get it back to 3040. And in this 30-40 point, he was in control. He hit a backhand angle, strong cross-court backhand angle. But then Yannick produced this unbelievable backhand down the line to break serve. Rafa did have an opportunity to break back the follow-in game. He was up 30-40 at 3-2. This was his biggest missed opportunity to break out of his seven breakpoint chances throughout this match because he was in the point, but he seemingly pulled up a little bit too much on his forehand and overplayed, sending it long. And I think his forehand acceleration and overall timing has a tendency to be off a little bit too much. I first noticed this when I watched him live in Delray Beach. His forehand it did have a tendency to misfire, and a few times he framed it and just didn't really have the proper like racket contact point with that shot. And I think that explains why he's more successful on the clay, and why I think clay is his best surface, at least right now, because he has more time on the forehand side. He still, though, had issues with that forehand in this match against Yannick, as in the following game, 4-2, Rafa's forehand let him down horribly. He hit four forehand unforced airs in a row to get broken at love. And 12 of his 15 ground stroke unforced airs in the opening set were from the forehand side. I think Hodar needs to do a better job of keeping his feet planted a little bit more. He tends to be a little bit more wild with his feet and his upper body too at times. And if you notice, Yannick doesn't really do this too much on his forehand. So that's something I think he and his team are gonna look to work on. But Yannick cruised through his last service game of the first set, and then he also cruised through his opening two service games of the second set. However, he had to fight for his life in those following two service games after he held for the first two times in the second set. He at 2-3, he was down 15-40, faced two break points. Yannick hit a screaming forehand inside out to save the first one. Then at 3040, Hodar had a much better shot. He hit a good backhand down the line approach off of center drop shot, but then Yannick produced just the perfect live right over Hodar's head and escaped that game. Then at 3-4, center once again found himself down 1540. And his first serve and forehand were both eluding him in the earlier part of the game, but they magically reappeared when Yannick was spacing breakpoints. At 1540, he finished a point spaking a forehand cross-court winner. Then at 3040, he had a strong wide serve that put him in control of the rally, which he finished with a forehand and sat out winner. Then Hodar held another breakpoint in this 3-4 game at add out. Now this was the most ridiculous save of them all. Center, he had a drop shot, and then Hodar replied with a pretty decent slice. But center produced this unreal backhand cross-court winner on the line, right on the line, passing shot to get it back to deuce. That's simply it's like center needs to open his own school, like the center sorcery school of shots. Because it's unbelievable, unbelievable. How do you pull off this shot right on the line on one of the most pressure-filled points of the match? You are unreal, Yannick Center, simply unreal. But props to Hodar for not wavering after that because he faced three breakpoints the following game at for all. He could have easily let those missed breakpoint opportunities he had in the game prior to get to him, but he he was strong and he got through. Although Yannick's return definitely, I think, did Hodar favors because Center missed a few makeable returns, but still props to Rafa. And Rafa held on to his serve for the rest of the match from that point forward, but center's serve was impenetrable for the remainder of it. We saw some unbelievable spot serving from the Italian for the last few games of the match. And once it got to a tiebreaker, it was simply all center. He did not drop a single point, and he actually won the last 11 points of this entire match. Yannick ramped up his form to another level. It was very Djokovic like, as of course, Novak is notorious for saving his best tennis for the tiebreak and just playing unbelievable tennis. And he made all four of his first serves in play in the tiebreak. And that reminded me of the Monte Carlo final, where I believe Yannick made all of his first serves in play in the opening set breaker, which he took. So that goes to show again that Yannick is the most clutch player on tour right now. Simple as that. And Hodar, he had to play, I think, at his peak level to even match Yannick. And he he didn't. But even if Hodar did play his absolute best, I don't think it would have been enough to beat Yannick in this tie break. But again, this match just shows what separates Yannick from everyone else right now. He's somehow able to bring his very, very best tennis right now when he faces the most pressure. No one else can do that right now, like Yannick can. And I'm constantly in awe. Because it's not just here in this match. We saw it in Monte Carlo, we saw it in Miami, and we saw it at Indian Wells. He is unbelievable. And that's right there why he is undefeated at the 1000 level right now. He's on this undefeated streak of 26 in a row. I also think, as I predicted, Yannick's variety and him serving volume sometimes, and of course, mainly the drop shots, that made a difference. And Hodar, he used the drop shots too, but like I said in my last video, Center was OD with it. He and he was pretty much undefeated whenever he used the drop shot against Rafa. And it's not like Rafa was slow. I just think it was a great play to change it up against against the young Spaniard. Also, I said that Center's returning will be a big difference maker for him in this match. And I mentioned how in his round of 16 match, Rafa was able to win about 83% of his second serve points. I said yes, he has a good second serve, but Vic Kopriva should have done better, and that Yannick would not let Rafa get away with winning that many points behind his second serve. And I was right because Hodar only won 46% of second serve points in this match against Yannick. Hodar, that said, he was very impressive. He could have forced a third set, but still he should be proud of himself. And for this to be his first match against a top five player, let alone against the world number one, he should be very, very proud of himself. He came ready to play and he continued to play really top 10 level tennis. He will leave with a new career high ranking at number 34 in the world, and he likely will be seeded for Roland Guerros. As yes, he's not a 32 right now, but Al Kadaz won't play. And then Jack Draper, he announced today that he won't play. So those are two guys ahead of him that have already said they're not playing. I also think we won't see Taylor Fritz in Paris as he has not played any clay tournaments this year, and he just withdrew from Rome. So I think that'll be good news for everybody, especially the top seeds, if Rafa does manage to get a seeded position for Paris. Hodar, his run has simply been incredible. He's won 12 of his last 14 matches, with these only two losses coming to Arthur Feast and Yannick Center. Like two of the most informed players right now. Both Feast and Center are undefeated on clay right now. So, I mean, I've been singing Rafa's praises for a long time, but even this Madrid, with this Madrid run, I've gained a new level of respect for the young fella. He showed that he has a big game with very few holes in the game. And I think he will win a major throughout his career. I think I'm sold because he's already developed so much in his game, and the sky's the limit because he's only 19 years old. So again, barring injury, I don't want to say that to jinx him because I only already jinxed another Spaniard by saying a barring injury type of phrase. But barring injury, I'm gonna still say it, Rafa, I think, will win a major in his career. But I'm so excited to see how he develops overall, and I'm looking forward to see how he does at both Rome and Roland Garros. I'm not really expecting too much for him in Rome just because he's played a lot of tennis from Madakesh as well as Barcelona, now Madrid. I think he needs to rest a little bit, but hopefully he's ready to go for Roland Garros and can go on a good run there. Up next for center, of course, is Arthur Feast, who secured his second ATP 1000 semifinal with an impressive 6'3-6-4 victory over 11 seed Yuri Leheshka. The head-to-head between Feast and Leheshka was tied at two with piece before today, and Leheshka dominated their last meeting 2-2 in the Miami Open semifinals. Yuri was red hot in that match. He played the perfect match. Although Feast, I think, was a bit gassed as he had that marathon quarterfinal victory over Tommy Paul the round prior. But this was their first meeting on the clay. And I think this surface better favors Feast. Because Laheshka, he likes to serve in volley, but Feast, I think, had more time to come up with better passes, whether it be from the ground or just the return with it being on clay. Also, Laheshka was not able to get the ball to Feast's backhand as much as he maybe wanted to compared to Miami. And I think that has to do with the clay as well, because Feast had more time to run around his backhand to hit that huge forehand of his. Also, it just felt like Feast was never under any type of stress throughout this match. I mean, he never faced a break point. And it, I mean, it wasn't a total runaway win for Arter. Only two breaks separated the two, but still, he he didn't face, like I said, he didn't face a break point. Plus, the match only lasted 74 minutes. But I was really impressed because Arthur it was a very composed performance from the Frenchman. We never really saw him overplay on the forehand, and that's impressive because, like I've mentioned, through throughout this tournament, a lot of players like even Yannick have seen their forehands fly on them throughout the event, but we really didn't see that at all tonight against Lehechka. And considering where Arthur was at the beginning of the tournament fighting for his life against Ignacio Bufe, he's going to be really proud of himself to make another 1000 semifinal. And with this victory, Arthur officially will return back inside the top 20 as he sits at 17 in the live rankings. I would say that's where Feast belongs, but really Arthur belongs in the top 10, arguably top five, as he's literally, I think, number five still in the ATP race to Turin. But looking ahead at this center and feast match, they've played one time before, although it was three years ago in the Montpellier semifinals, which center won 7-5-6-2. Not really taking much stock at all in that match because both guys were much different players back then. Plus, this is on an entirely different surface, the Red Clay. But both men are undefeated on clay so far this season. Both are 9-0 and both have won a title. Center, of course, won Monte Carlo, Feast won Barcelona. So something's gotta give. One man will improve to 10-0, and another man will go down to 9-1. I think this matchup will be very, very, very intriguing to me. And I will be intrigued to see if Yannick can still have as much success using that trademark variety of his that he has been using throughout this entire tournament. I think it'll be a little bit of a different challenge because he has yet to face quite an athlete like Arthur. Artor is arguably like top five mover on tour. So I'm not expecting him to have as much success as he had against Rafa Hodar, but I still think the drop shot will be an effective play because it'll keep him from being where Arth prefers to be, dominating behind the baseline. That's not to say that Feast, he has a really strong net game himself, but I think he would rather come to the net on his own terms, Arthur would, rather than being drawn for. In addition to the drop shots, I'm anticipating Center to really use that inside out forehand heavy against Feast. Now, Feast, he actually defends that shot pretty well, I think, or at least he defends it better than Holdar. So that I think could provide a different challenge for Center, but still I think he'll win a good number of points. Or if he doesn't win a good number of points, I think that he'll put himself in better position. I think center's backhand gives him a pretty decent edge. Feast's backhand, it's it's really good, of course, but center I think has a better backhand down the line, like changing direction compared to Arthur. And I think that's gonna be a shot that center's gonna look to really utilize a lot. Because I imagine that center doesn't want to see a lot of forehand or forehand exchanges. Because, in my opinion, at least from the ground, Feast's forehand has been better than Center's, at least in this tournament. On the return side of things, though, I think Yannick has the edge, at least on like the forehand return. Also, the serve, I think center he has the better serve, especially during the pressure moments. Whereas with Feast, his serve is effective, but I think there's a little bit more of a vulnerability with Feast. Also, with the return, sometimes Feast can give his opponents too much on the return as far as freebies. Center can too. We saw that against Holdar at times, but I think overall Yannick would be a little bit more buttoned up. Based on how he's been playing, Feast has a chance to win this match. A thousand percent. But he's gonna be playing for his maiden 1000 final. That's gonna be a big deal. And to me, yes, he I think one thing that is in his advantage is that he'll be an underdog against Yannick. And I'm not expecting nerves to get to him at least until it comes the time to close a set or a match or the match. That'll be the biggest test with Feast because like I said before, the biggest reason why Center has been on this run of 26, 1,000 wins in a row is the clutchness. No man has been as clutch as him in the pressure moment. So the biggest task for Feast is being able to take his chances. And it's easy, it's much easier said than done because Yannick is just a completely different player, it seems like, whenever he faces adversity. I think though that if Feast manages to do that, manages to take his chances, that'll be huge. That'll be a huge coming of age moment for him. And that'll be a sign that he's ready to win a slam. Even though he is yet to make a slam quarterfinal, this will be the match that determines whether he's ready to make that next step of truly, truly us looking at him as oh, he can win this tournament. Because still right now, I feel like, okay, Feast is one of those guys that can beat everyone else, but just Yannick and Carlos are s are too good. This match could change it all. So I'm looking forward to this one. I do think that Feast will take a set based on how he's been playing, but I just think that center right now is too clutch. I just think he's too clutch right now. I also think that he's a little bit too good as far as his serve is concerned, as well as his return. So with that, I'm having him take this one in three sets, but wouldn't be surprised really at all if Feast managed to do his big one and get this win and pulled off a Baptiste Sabalenka-like upset win. That would be really amazing. Moving on to the women's side, our second semifinal is set. Anastasia Potopova, she opened the day with an historic 6-1, 6-7, 6-3 victory over Carolina Pushkova to secure her maiden WTA 1000 semifinal. Potopova made history becoming the first lucky loser to reach a WTA semifinal in history. And Potopova has been around for a minute, although she's still kind of young. She's only 25 years old. And I feel like she should have achieved more, but I think mental was one of the biggest things preventing her from making bigger strides, like how she has done this tournament. And I she tested Sabalenka a lot at the Australian Open, pushed her to two tight tie break sets. And about five years ago, I remember her match against Serena at the Australian Open in 2021. I think she had multiple set points, but she double-faulted on them and gave Serena the lifeline to take that match in straight sets. But that all I say all that to say, her serve and forehand were two of her biggest Achilles heels, especially in pressure moments. I think the biggest difference maker here is that those shots have held up beautifully throughout this tournament. And they held up really nice against Reboka in the round of 16, where she pulled off that impressive 7'6, 6'4 win. She saved a set point and she recovered from a break deficit in both those sets. And I think two of her most important shots this tournament have been her return in her backhand. And both of those shots helped her get out to a commanding 6-1, 5-3 lead against Plushkova in this quarterfinal. And Partipova twice served for the match in the second set at 5-4, then again at 6-5. And she had three total match points in the second set, but could not close. And I thought once Plushkova took the second set that she could run away with the entire third set because she broke at the beginning of the decider, although Partipova broke back, but then Plushkova broke again and went up 3-1. And she had two game points up 40-15 to consolidate or go up 4-2. But Porto Pova, she fought so hard and she did a great job. She won five games in a row to take the match. And I have to give it up to her because she, again, could have thrown in the towel after those missed opportunities. But she's been on one this tournament, and I'm really impressed. She thoroughly deserved this win, and I'm really happy for her. Disappointing for Plushkova, I'm sure, because especially she it might have been better off if she just lost this match in straight sets. Because that's a heartbreaker to come from behind, saving those match points, and to come that close to winning. That's hard. But great to see her back at least at this level. She was out for some time dealing with that, I think, an ankle injury. So if she can maintain this form, I think she can push back inside maybe the top 30. But looking at the other quarterfinal match, it was far less eventful. Marta Kostuk defeated Linda Noskova 766 Love to reach her, I believe, second WTA 1000 semifinal. The first set was a roller coaster set, though, between the two, and it felt like it decided the entire outcome of the match. Noskova, she initially continued her superb form from that Coco Golf win in the round prior as she won the first nine of ten points of the match. Although Linda's intensity dropped a bit and Costack was able to rise to the occasion and she broke. And we saw so many breaks in this opening set, y'all. Eight breaks of serve total. It definitely was not the highest quality set between the two women. Costuk, though, felt like the better player for much of it. I mean, she had 18 total break points. Um, and she dominated the tie break 7-1. I think that was well deserved. Noskova, I think the glaring stat for the first set was that she only won 16% of her second serve points. The second set wasn't that much better for the for the Czech woman. She won just 20% of her second serve points in set number two. Her first serve was also pretty poor. She won just 38% of points behind that first delivery. Costruck, meanwhile, she cruised on her serve. She dropped just one point total on serve in the second set. And Marta has been on a mission throughout this entire tournament. She's yet to drop a set, and she's also yet to drop more than six games in a match. And I think she will be the favorite in this upcoming match against Potopova. The head-to-head is tied at two apiece, but Marta has won their last two matches and has won them in straight sets, including the last match actually was here in Madrid in the round of 16, which she won 6'3, 6'2. I just think overall, Marta's game is the steadier of the two. Potopova might have more weapons, like slightly more weapons, but she's also more volatile. And I just think that Marta also has the edge in the movement department as well as the forehand. So I think she's she's just on a mission right now, and she's gonna be more determined too. Because yes, Potopova has changed national nationalities from Russia to Austria, but I think still in Marta's head, she's gonna be playing a Russian, so she has that trip on her. Shoulder as well, and I think she's gonna come out and and and play a good match. So I'm putting Kostchuk through Ashley in straight sets. That's all I have for this one. Let me know your thoughts on the center holdar match. And if you are also high on Rafa Hodar, like I am, and if you are already saying that he'll win a slam sometime later on throughout his career, of course, give your predictions too on the center feast match. And do you think that Arthur will do his big one like Haley Baptiste and get the win? Again, make sure you subscribe and click the notification bell so you're notified whenever I post my next Madrid Open recap video, which will probably come out tomorrow. Thank you all so much for watching and for your support. And I will see you all next time here on Christian's Course.