Rome '26: Is Sabalenka’s crown slipping? Swiatek vs Osaka 4R PREDICTION

For the first time in 15 months, Aryna Sabalenka lost before the quarterfinals of an event when she fell to Sorana Cirstea in the Rome third round. Do her recent losses signal a potential weakening of her consistency? Or will she rebound for another strong run at RG? Iga Swiatek and Naomi Osaka set up a blockbuster fourth round match after scoring dominant wins. 

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Quite a lot went down in Rome this past weekend from Arena Sabalenka's surprise third round loss to Igosh Fiontek and Naomi Osaka securing the round of 16 showdown we've all been waiting for. I'll talk a bit about Sabulanka's loss and whether it signals a potential end to her dominance and preview/slash predict this Osaka's Fiontek blockbuster. Ciao Mikiamo Christian at Benvenuti a la Christian's Court where I cover tennis from all angles. If you have not yet already, make sure you subscribe and click the notification bell so you are notified whenever I post more Rome updates. So the biggest headline from the weekend was Arena Sabalanka for sure falling to Serrano Crestella 266375 in round three at the Photo Italico. I'm not entirely surprised that Salanka lost to Crestella. Serana has been balling all season and she's come close a couple times to getting some big wins, namely against Coco in Miami and Madrid. And she also beat Salanka a couple years ago in Miami. Although I was a bit surprised in the way in which Serrana got this win. Because Salanka was in total control of the match for the first 30 to 45 minutes of it. She was up a break in the second set on two separate occasions. But I think that 2-1 game in set number two kind of changed everything. Because in that game, Sal Blanca started to make some really sloppy errors, and I think that breathed new life into Kirstea. That was the first break of the match that she got in her favor. And Kirstea from that point forward really began peaking with her return and started to attack Sal Blanca's second serve well and was applying pressure immediately. And Serrano broke Arena four times in a row at one point. And it was a combination of I think Kirstea playing well and Sal Blanca just being a little bit too error-prone and sloppy. And I felt like Arena was not in control of the points like she normally is. I gotta give credit to Kirstea though, because her court coverage was on point, and she really employed a smart strategy of changing direction a lot and going up the line to keep Arena off balance. And she was also really smart to throw in some higher spin balls to get the ball out of Arena strike zone. And Kirstea's excellent returning, I think, continued to shine in the third set. She broke Arena three times in set number three. And it was honestly very similar to the Baptiste Madrid quarterfinal match with Sabalenka, where you thought that if Arena had helped serve or come through one of those tight service games in the third set, she would have taken the match with how much she also broke Kristella in the latter stages of it, but she just could not hold on to her serve. And I was waiting for Sabalenka to find that extra gear against Kristella, and she did well to break Serana when Kristella served for the match at 5-4, but she just cannot sustain a good level in those last two games. And I think her returning was really poor in this third set, especially on the backhand side. Now the Baptiste loss to me was much better for Sabalenka. I think Sabalenka overall played better in that match, and that Haley was just, she was definitely peaking. Christia definitely played well, but even still, I don't know if this was, it might have been peak Kristaya, I don't know, but I think it was a little bit more on Sabalenka as far as just a lot of errors, especially in the second set. But still, I think these Baptiste and Christella losses are two that you think, or two matches you think that she should win for sure. And that's part of the reason why I'm pondering if her crown or edge is starting to slip. Holding serve, I think, is the biggest issue with Salablanka right now. The way that she allowed her serve to get broken that many times against Haley and Serana in those matches in the second and third sets is definitely concerning. And I know obviously we're on clay, and her serve isn't going to be as potent, but still, like she's gotta protect her serve much better than that. And this marks the first time in 15 months where Arena has lost in a tournament before the quarterfinals. It was 17 tournaments in a row where Salanka made the quarterfinals or better at least, which is really incredible. Gotta clap it up to Salanka for that. But also, Salenko has lost her last two tie breaks played against Osaka and Madrid, as well as that T-smash, the final tie break there. And I mean, she never really performed that well in Rome. I think the conditions being slower there kind of give her a little bit of a disadvantage, and I think she would have to work harder behind her serve in these conditions. Also, of course, she was dealing with the back issue that she sought treatment for midway through the third set, so definitely giving her a little bit of a pass. She told the WTA that she hasn't been feeling quite right in Rome. So I don't know. I think though that this early exit puts her a bit at risk of losing her number one ranking to Alana Robacina before Wimbledon. If Robacina wins Rome, then she'd be just 470 points behind Sabulenka. Although Atlanta would be losing 500 points from when she won Strasbourg last year. But Arena has 1,300 points coming off from making the Roland Garros finals last year. So depending on how she does in Rome, Robacana could have a live race lead for number one at the start of Roland Garrett. So that definitely will make things interesting. And I think if Savanka loses before the quarterfinals in Paris, then we can say have a more serious conversation about something. But I think as it stands right now, I'm not overly concerned. She'll still be a top three favorite regardless of how everyone else does. And still, what we can say is that when it comes time to a slam, she brings her best tennis. So we just have to wait and see. But definitely props to Kristaya for an incredible match. This is definitely not a bat loss at all for Sal Blanca, considering how well Serrano played for sure. And at 36, Kristaya is the oldest woman actually to defeat a world number one on clay. So props to her. Again, with her playing like this, it's astounding that this is her last year on tour. With Sal Blanca's exit, the bottom half of, or the top half, I mean, of this Rome woman's draw is definitely open. Krista, she now faces Linda Noskova, and this is already the third or the fourth time where these two have played in a 1000 tournament this year, which is insane. Kristaya leads the head to head so far this year, two to one. Yelena Ustapanko and Anna Kanskaya will face off, and Anna leads the head-to-head for the love, actually. But this is their first meeting on clay, so perhaps that could give Ulstapanko the edge. Coco Goff takes on American rising star, 18-year-old Eva Jovic. This will be their first meeting, and I think Jovic could do her big one here, but Coco tends to be more of a big mama against the younger player. So I expect Goff to kind of bring more of her A game here in this match and take that one. And then speaking of young players, 19-year-old Mira Andreva takes on Elisa Mertens for the first time after Mertens eliminated the defending champion, Jasmine Paulini, after saving two match points the round prior. Paolini, by the way, is now outside the top 10. Now, the most intriguing matchup, fourth round matchup by far, is for sure Naomi Osaka against Iga Schwiątek. Shjantek, she dominated Elisa Beta Cochareto 6'1-6 love, and it's unfortunate deja vu for Lisa Beta because this was the same exact score as their role match last year. Cocharetto just really didn't have what it took to trouble Iga, especially on Clay, and she wasn't able to take the ball as early and take time away like she did against Coco, for example, in uh Doha and in Miami as well. But overall, a very composed and solid performance from Iga. I think she'll be very happy with her form. She didn't overplay, finishing with 17 winners, 11 of Forced Airs. It was kind of similar with Naomi and her match. She utterly dominated the 19th seed, Deanna Snyder, 6'1-6-2. Now, I'm not surprised that Naomi won this match, but I'm surprised she won it in this fashion. And it marked her first top 20 win of the year. Schneider, gotta be honest, she was pretty sloppy, especially in the opening set, but Naomi played very solid, very few unforced airs, just overall great play. 10 winners, seven unforced airs, excellent shot making too. In this match, we really saw her improved fitness. Her movement was much better. I'm noticing her sliding on the clay has been much more smooth. And I think very much the clay potential is there with Naomi. And this marks her third straight Rome round of 16. I think the issue with her is that she just hasn't played as much on clay throughout her entire career because she definitely has what it takes to get big results. What's crazy is she's looking for her first tour-level clay quarterfinal since Rome 2019. Now, this will be Naomi and Iga's fourth career meeting, and the head-to-head is in Iga's favor at 2-1. This will be their second clay meeting as their last meeting overall was at Roland Garrow's 2024 and the second round, which Fiontek won 7-5 in the third set. That was an epic match, and Osaka had match point, and Iga was able to escape and went on to win that title, not dropping a set thereafter. And Osaka really had a lot of success in this match because I think she was able to use her power to break down the Xfiantech forehand. That said, the conditions there played a bit quicker because Roland Garros, first of all, already plays faster than Roma, in my opinion, but also the roof was closed in that match. But Rome here in Rome, like I just said, the conditions are slower, and this match will be played in the eveningslash nighttime. So I think that might give Iga a little bit of an advantage, especially considering how her third round match was played in these type of conditions as well. And I think that Xiantech's defense will be key here in this match. Yes, Naomi has improved her movement, but still Xiantech's movement will be better. She's just right now still the Queen of Clay. Now, on the flip side, I think Naomi's biggest edge will be her coach, Tomas Budkarowski. And this is actually, I think, Tomas's first time that he's coaching against Ega. He obviously knows her game very well, was with her from 2022 to 2024. They won a number of slams together. And I feel like Tomas will give Naomi a great game plan. Again, considering how he knows Shantek's game pretty well. And I don't think that Iga's game has changed that much at all since 2024. But perhaps Iga could have an edge too if she stayed with Wim Fazette, but maybe Francisco can make a good game plan. This will be a big match for both women. They're both seeking their second top 20 wins of the year. I think there's going to be more at play for Naomi in this one as she's looking for her first quarterfinal of the year, first clay top 10 win. Although with Iga, I feel like if she loses this match, then her confidence going into Roland Garros will still not be great, as her season thus far has not been great. It comes down to who will manage it better. I mean, Osaka, she faded against Sabulanka in Madrid the last two sets. With Iga, it was a similar story when she played Mirandreva and Stuttgart. I think Naomi definitely has the type of game to give Ega a fit. The big ground strokes, the power can for sure break down Spiantek's forehand, but they might be nullified with these slower eveningslash nighttime conditions here in Italy. Now I think Naomi has what it takes to spike that, but the biggest thing will be mental, in my opinion. But I think against the heavy hitters, when it gets time to three set matches, that's when she tends to maybe go away a little bit or lose focus or just lose her intensity overall. I think Naomi might have a little bit more belief though in that scenario, considering how she's probably aware that Iga is not the same Ega of her when she was dominating back in 2024 at least. I also think that playing Sal Blanca recently will help her as well. And Osaka said after the Schneider win that she's excited for the challenge and that she really gets up for these type of matches too. Now, I originally had Iga winning this one in three sets, and I even had her beating Naomi in my preview, but I had not considered the Tomas factor, and I think that will be huge. And I'm wondering what, if any, impact that has on Iga, you know, having Tomas in another player's box when she's playing someone else being coached by Tomas. So I don't know, maybe she could be more motivated perhaps to beat Naomi, but I don't know. I'm going with Naomi and three in this one. But regardless, I'm gonna be seated for it and I'm probably gonna live stream it as well. The match will be played around 12:30 1 p.m. Eastern time, by the way. Now the woman overall just wasted no time on Sunday. Like Naomi, Alina Svitilina delivered a Mother's Day beatdown when she eliminated Haley Baptiste 6-1-6-2. I expected Sfitalina to get her revenge from the Miami loss to Baptiste, but I was not expecting this much of a straightforward result. The Ukrainian would now face 20-year-old lucky loser Nikola Bartankova, who eliminated Madison Key 6'3, 1-664. This was really the only competitive woman's match of the day. Jessica Pagula scored her first tour-level bagel victory against Rebecca Masarova, and she now takes on Anastasia Potopova, who improves to 12-2 on clay this year as far as the main draw is concerned, after taking a 6-3-6-2 win over Ludmilla-Samsonova. This has been an incredible run that Potopova's been on. I've been really impressed that she's sustained that level for three tournaments: Linz, Madrid, and now Rome. And it's incredible too that she had to come through qualifying in both Madrid and Rome, or at least she got a lucky loser spot in Madrid, but still she played two more matches in that tournament. So really impressed and gotta give her props on this run. Pagula does lead the head-to-head between her and Potopova 5-0. And they've they've had a few battles where it's been 7-5 or 7-6 in the third set. So don't think it'll be too much of an easy one for JPEG in this match. We'll also see a meeting between two former Rome champions as 2023 winner Elena Robakina takes on 2019 champ Carolina Pushkova after they earn straight sets victories over Alexiala and Laura Siegelman respectively. It's great, by the way, to see Carolina back playing great tennis after that injury layoff as she made the Madrid quarterfinals last week. So I wouldn't be too overly shocked if she took down Robakina in this one. Now looking at the men's side, we have an interesting or a few interesting round of six team matches confirmed in the bottom half. 20-year-old Dino Prismich backed up his impressive win over Novat Djokovic the round prior when he took down Ugo Umber 6'175. I think this is a good chance for the young rising star to at least reach the quarterfinals. As up next for him is Karen Hachinoff, who's been honestly kind of mid this season. Lorenzo Musetti against Caspar Root, I think, would be the most or one of the most interesting fourth round matches in the bottom half. Both Lorenzo and Casper took home very good straight sets wins in the third round over Francisco Sarondalo and Yiri Lehechka, respectively. The head to head between Casper and Lorenzo is tied at one apiece. It's gonna be a tight one, but I picked Museri to win this uh match before the tournament started, so I'm gonna stick with him here. Another match I'm looking forward to is between two young stars and Rafa Hodar and Leonard Tien. Both guys earned quality three-set wins. Rafa, he beat home favorite Mateo Arnaldi while Tien took down Alexander Bublick 7'5 in the third set. This marks Tien's first top 20 win on Clay. Now, this one won't be as hyped as the Fonseca Hodar Madrid match. I think there were greater parallels there with them being the same age and they were supposed to be UVA teammates. I also think that Fonseca still has a lot more hype behind him than Lerner does. But Hodar, he beat Tian actually in the next gen finals last year and Jetta, and that's the first time I really heard about him. And I think Rafa will be a bigger favor in this one with this being on clay, and we kind of know that Rafa's the superior clay player at least. But I'll be interested to see if Tianan can make something shake. But regardless, I'll be seated for it. Luciano Dardari, he denied Tommy Paul a third straight Rome semifinal when he took down the American 3-6-6-3-6-2. Disappointing loss for Paul because he was up 3-1 in the second set. But I think when he got broken at 3-2, the entire match flipped in Dardary's favor. Luciano next faces Alexander Zverev, who defeated Alexander Bloch for the second straight tournament, but this time was more straightforward. Zverev took a 6-1-6-4 victory. It's honestly looking like we might get yet another center Zverev final. Yannick's section is pretty open here in the top half. His biggest ops in his little section, Jakub Menchik and Artur Feast, were eliminated in the second round. Fees, though, a little bit more of a sad loss for him as he had to retire down level four due to a hip injury. Don't really think that Pop Rain or Tiafo can do much against Yannick, but I don't know, maybe Bigfo can surprise me if he gets through there to face Yannick in the fourth round. Now, a few top five seeds lost in round two. Ben Shelton and Felix Fajalia's team, they both bit the dust, and that opened up the draw a bit more for these men remaining. FAA's loss really opened the floodgates in his little section because there are no top 40 players remaining there. And down there below, it's looking like we'll get yet another Kaboli Medvedev fourth round match in a clay 1000 this year. Looking at Monday's order of play, Krista Noskova opened play on Campo Centrale, followed by Goff versus Jovich. Then Yannick Center takes on Alexei Poparin, Kaboli, headlines, the night session, followed by Plejkova and Rabakina. Then on the BMP Paraball Arena, you have Bellucci against Landaluth, Tiafo against Pellegrino, Svitolina against Bartankova, and then Denil Medvedev, followed by Osaka against Shantek. But yeah, that's all I have for this video. Let me know your thoughts on Sal Blanca's loss. And if you think that maybe we're seeing a little bit of a not a decline, but a crown slippage from Arena. And if you think that the loss means anything for her rolling girls' prospects, if it changes how you view her as maybe a favorite, or maybe she's not as much of a favorite now in your eyes. Plus, give your own predictions for this upcoming Ega and Naomi fourth round match. Again, I'm really looking forward to watching how that one unfolds. Make sure y'all subscribe and click the notification bell so you're notified whenever I post my next Rome update video. Thank y'all so much for watching and for your support. And I will see you all next time here on Christians Court.