Wimbledon '26: Gauff the favorite after Pegula win? Muchova ousts Osaka

Coco Gauff delivered another impressive comeback victory, defeating Jessica Pegula to reach her maiden Wimbledon semifinal. Joining her is Karolina Muchova, who eliminated Naomi Osaka in two sets. Gauff is the only slam champion and the highest-ranked woman left in the field. And considering her head-to-head edge over Karolina Muchova, is she the favorite to lift the Venus Rosewater dish?

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Transcript

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If you told Coco Golf about a week and a half ago that she would not only make her first woman in semifinal, but would be considered a favorite by many to go all the way, I'm not sure she'd believe you. Coming into this tournament, the American hadn't won a match on grass in two years. Now she finds herself two matches from winning the sport's most prestigious tournament. Standing in the way of the finals is Carolina Muhova, who's in fine form herself, having just eliminated Red Hot Naomi Osaka in straight sets. Mujova is one and six against Goth, but won their last meeting just a few months ago. Can she take this one too? Or will Coco's big match experience earn her another milestone win? Hello, my name is Christian Bassnight. Welcome to Christian's Court, where I cover tennis from all angles. If you have not yet already, make sure you subscribe and click the notification bell so you're notified whenever I post my reaction to that epic Djokovic Felix Ojery sim quarterfinal slash my Djokovic Center semifinal video. So today, Coco became the youngest woman to reach the semifinals at all four majors since Maria Sheropova in 2007 after she defeated Compatriate and former doubles partner Jessica Bagula 466363. This match was very similar to Coco's win over Belinda Bencic in the fourth round, as golf also had a slow start here. And the two times that she was broken in the first set, we saw some poor serving and scrappy groundplay from the number seven seed. The quality of the match also was not great. Everybody was complaining about it in my live stream. Pagula was targeting the golf forehand heavy and with a lot of success because that wing was off from Coco. And I think it was a good play for Pagula to go deep up the middle to that forehand side of Coco's, and that took the angles away from the American golf. And I think she really could have kept doing that play. But again, like with Benchic, Pagula was not playing all that spectacular in the first set. She was just more consistent and solid enough. She hit three winners, six unforced errors, and Coco, she hit six winners, 17 unforced errors. And the majority of those unforced errors were from her forehand side. Pagula was not serving that great in the first set, to be totally honest. And she was averaging her serves 20 kilometers slower compared to Coco. Her service placement wasn't all that great either, but it was good enough because she was targeting a majority of her serves to the Coco forehand. And Coco's forehand return, again, as it has been in a lot of her poor matches, was not great in the start of this match. I also feel like Coco wasn't doing enough on her return and that she wasn't properly attacking Pagula's weaker serves. So Jesse was still able to maintain control of a lot of points whenever she stepped up to the service line or to the baseline. Now, in the second set, Coco made a few key changes that helped her turn this match around. First, in the opening set, Coco hit a majority of a huge majority of her forehands, topspin forehands, 93% of the time in the first set. In the second set, she shifted to more or less 70% of forehands on the top spin side as she used more slice forehands. And that was smart because that threw Pagula off her rhythm a number of times. Cocoa was also more aggressive. Her core positioning and rally hit point was further into the court. And we saw fewer off-pace forehands from Coco, and she's hit she hit more of her forehands from the front foot. And I think it's interesting how Coco was more aggressive in the second set, but still was able to cut her unforced error count in half. As she hit just eight unforced errors in the second set compared to, again, 17 unforced errors in the first set. And we also witnessed just a serving masterclass from Coco in the final two sets, but especially in the second set, because she went from winning 59% of her first serve points in the first set to winning 84% of points whenever she landed a first serve in set number two. And it got to a point where it felt like if Coco just landed her first serve, she was going to win the point. And Goff hit her spots very well. Her disguise was great. And she had Pagula guessing at times, and she could hit hard, flat up to T, yet also angle it, slice wide on the due side. And Coco was clutch with her serving. She could have easily gone down love three in the second set. She faced two breakpoints in her opening service game of set number two and one more breakpoint at one all. At the 1540 point in her first service game of set number two, she hit an unreturnable wide serve. And then at 3040, that was a big miss opportunity for Pagula. She sent this forehand long. Then at the one-all break point, Coco was clutch. She hit an excellent 98 mile per hour body serve, second serve, mind you, and she followed it up with a chip report shot that barely clipped the line and finished it off with a volley winner. And on that note, with the second serves, Coco's second serves were so effective because they not only prevented Pagula from attacking the serve, which she loves to do, but it bailed her out of trouble, like at 3-all when she was down love 30. And I love how Coco used her net prowess as well to complement her strong serving and aggressive play. She ended up winning 15 out of her 20 net points. We also saw a few serve and volleys as well. It felt like it would only be a matter of time before Goff finally cracked the code on return, and she did that at 4-3 in the second set, and she broke at love, playing her best brand of tennis, which is being patiently aggressive. Now, the third set would be interesting because both Coco and Jesse are phenomenal three-set players. And Pagula had an early break look at one love when she had to break point, but she missed this backhand return long off of 100 mile per hour Coco second serve. Pagula's return definitely was not as sharp in the third set, but Coco's meanwhile was right on the money. She hit a lot of her returns with such immaculate, precise depth and placement, and that put herself in a great position to be more aggressive behind the return. And she was also able to draw more airs from Pagula. In the third set, we saw definitely the best tennis of the match. The rallies were longer and higher quality, and a few of them were highlight rail rallies. Credits to Pagula for staying strong because I thought that she could go off the rails a little bit when she was down 1-3 love 30, but she was able to control it and get the match back on serve, leveling it at three all. However, Coco showed why she is the three-set slam queen because she took her level to another notch. Her forehand was so impressive, and she actually broke down Jesse's forehand a number of times in this match. Pagula, I mean, she had her looks in this match, just was not able to cash in. This really could have been a straight sets win for her if she was more clutch herself. And once again, she continues to have that title of the best active player to not win a slam. I think that she still will win a slam. She has time, but this was a good opportunity. And with more opportunities that slip between her fingers, the harder I feel that it'll be to get over that hump. But focusing now on Coco, man, just her evolution as a player this tournament has been so great to see. She showed why a lot of people felt that she should be winning more slams than even the two that she has right now, because the serve, we knew that she had the potential to be this Coco Golf Williams-esque server, but it's finally all coming together. And I think a lot of it was mental. And I think she had less pressure coming into the tournament knowing how she was not a favorite to go deep at all. And I think this run showed that she is a true all-court player and can play multiple different ways. Her defensive skills are still not as big of a factor on the quicker grass conditions, but she still won a number of points with her defense to offensive plays. Her net skills, I mentioned that before, they were on full display in these last few rounds. And I'm wondering, is she the title favorite right now? Honestly, I think so. She's the highest ranked woman remaining in the draw. Now, the bottom half players are still no pushovers, especially Linda Noscova. I think she can definitely win this title. Jasmine Paolini, she's a two-time slam finalist. She's gone the furthest here at Wilmoton out of all the remaining players. Marta Kostjak, she's a solid player and is playing and is playing inspired tennis. So again, no pushovers, but still, Coco is the only slam champion remaining in the field. And this came after Carolina Muhova's 7-6-6-4 win over Naomi Osaka. Like Coco, Carolina has now reached the semifinals of all four majors as a result of this quarterfinal win. And it is incredible because she had lost the first in the first round at one moment in the last four years. So what a turnaround for Muhova. Osaka was actually the odds makers' favorite to win the title after she took down Arena Salenka. But there's a very important stat that was working against Naomi, and it's that since Rome 2025, whenever Salenka loses before the finals of a tournament, the woman who beats her loses the very next round. Now, it definitely was not the same Naomi Osaka that we saw Sunday when she beat Sabalenka, and I expected this because Muhova honestly is a more challenging opponent to face because of her unpredictability. And Arena has added more variety to her game, but still she does not come close to Muhova's variety as she'll slice and dice more and do more surprise attack to attack to the net. But Muhova, the biggest difference between her and Sabalenka was that she returned much better than Arena. She hit with better depth of shot and was able to rush Naomi. And against Sabalenka, Naomi won 87% of her first serve points, 61% of her second serve points. And against Muhova, she won 67% of first serve points, just 42% of second serve points. So that's a vast difference. And Muhova complemented her great returning with aggressive play. And she came forward whenever she saw the littlest up of opportunities. And she finished at the net well, wasn't allowing Naomi to bang with her from the ground as much. And that's clearly where Naomi is more comfortable going toe-to-toe from the ground. Naomi still she broke Muhova twice to open the match, but she also got broken in her open two service games. And I feel like if she just held on to one of those breaks, the set was hers. And it's not like Muhova was returning so well at this point. They were just bad Naomi errors. And Osaka committed 32 unforced errors to 24 winners. And against Sabalanka, she hit 25 unforced errors, 21 winners. Naomi, I still think that she served pretty well in this match. She was clutch at least, and Muhova had more looks in both sets, but quality serves from Naomi helped her escape. Now the biggest thing that hurt Naomi in this match was her folding under the pressure. She looked very emotional overall, but especially in the tight moments, like in the first set tie break, she was reduced to tears almost. And she did look a little bit on edge in her US Open quarterfinal against Muhova last year. So some of that could be the Muhova effect, but it wasn't to this degree where she was again crying. And she said that she didn't have much energy in her post-match press conference, and she attributed it to her playing the week before in Bad Onborg. She said that she's not used to playing that many matches before a slam. So I understand that, but it's also not like she was spending a whole lot of time on court. Her matches were routine, she had not dropped a set, not including that Bad Omborg final. But Naomi also had a bit of a collapse at four all in the second set. She double faulted on her two game points in that game, and she also committed a number of really atrocious four-hand unforced errors, including on Muhova's second breakpoint. And Naomi said at that point her legs were gone again in her post-match press conference. I really have mixed feelings about Miss Osaka. I feel like she's been making steps in the right direction, especially with this grass run. Again, she hadn't made a slam second week on a non-hardcourt surface before this year. So Roland Garrett's and Wobanem were very promising for her. But it's just like it's always something with Naomi. I swear. That's why I didn't think that she would win the tournament after beating Sal Balenka. I said that she could, but I didn't think that she would. Because if it's not mental, it's physical. Or both. And she even said in her post-match press conference that she thinks that she has plantar fasciitis in her foot. So that's another thing that we need that we need to keep an eye on. But I really can't say whether or not that she'll win a slam or win another slam. I feel like it'll only get harder as she gets older and more injury prone. But focusing on the positives, I think if she plays like how she did this grass season, there's no reason why she can't go all the way at the US Open. But with Mohova, it's only thing that she went this far. This has really been her biggest breakthrough season. She picked up two titles, one at 500 level and another at 1000 level. And she is now at a career high, number six in the live rankings. Looking at this golf Muhova semifinal, Coco leads the head-to-head six to one. Again, as I mentioned in the preview, this will be their third meeting at a slam. Coco won their meetings at the US Open in 2023. That was a semifinal as well. She also won their 2026 Australian Open fourth round. This will be their fourth meeting this year alone. Coco won at the Australian Open in Miami, and then Mujova got her lick back in Stuttgart. Looking at why Coco has a lot of success or has had a lot of success against Muhova previously is that she committed to the best game plan against Carolina, which is to target and attack her weaker backhand. She does it like almost no other. Goff's defense also, I think, makes Mujova self-imploded. I think it's harder for Muhova to finish off points at the net because of how well Coco can track down balls and turn defense to offense. And we've noticed a lot of times that Mujova is very error-prone, especially from her forehand whenever she plays Coco. And I think again, that's from the pressure that Coco imposes on the Czech woman. Their matches also could have been more competitive, but Muhova wasn't as opportunistic as I think she could have been when she had her chances. I'm thinking back to the Beijing final from 2024, even the Miami Open semifinal from this year, where Coco double-breasted Muhova. I also don't think Muhova used her variety and flair as much as she could have in those previous matches where she lost to Coco, namely using her slice backhand to Coco's forehand. But she did a much better job of that in their Stuttgart quarterfinal, which she of course won. And I think that slice backhand will be a big and important shot for her against Coco on Friday, on Thursday, I mean. With grass, the ball stays lower, so it'll be harder for Coco to come up with that shot on her forehand with that extreme grip of hers on the forehand shot. And I also think this being on grass helps Muhova a bit more because golf's defense won't be as much of a factor. She won't be able to track down as many balls. It also wasn't as much of a factor in Stuttgart as well, I think, due to the in due to the indoor conditions, even though it was on grass. But Coco's movement isn't as great on Stuttgart or at Stuttgart. Her movement has been good the tournament, but still it's not as good as it is on a hardcourt. I also think with it being grass, Muhova will be more incentivized to play it the right way, which is just being more aggressive and not trying to hang with Coco from the ground. I think we're gonna see Muhova use her forehand down the line to come to the net and finish off points there. Now, Coco also needs to be more aggressive-minded herself. I don't think she went for her forehand as much as she should have in Stuttgart. She does not need to be tentative at all in this match. I do think it's gonna be a challenge for Coco because grasp means that she will have to play different. She would not be able to use one of her most effective plays, the high spinny forehand to the Muhova backhand. Now, on the flip side, I think Goth can have a lot of success in rushing Muhovas and her backhand a lot more. She needs to do this. The clay helped Carolina because she had more time to run around her backhand and hit effective inside out forehands. She won't have that same time here. So again, that's why I think Coco needs to maintain good cult positioning and try to rush Muhova as much as possible on that backhand side. The serve also, I think, needs to be on for both women. They've been huge shots for them this tournament. And I think Coco serve for sure has improved, but Muhova has been more effective on her surf and has had better serve surf statistics in every department. So Muhova has been the better server. We'll see if she can maintain that service level here. And you really could argue that Carolina is playing better tennis right now, but will I pick her to win? No. Give me Coco in three. Not only does she have the head-to-head edge, which I think will still play on Muhova mentally, despite her getting that Stuttgart win, it's the occasion. Mujova will be making her center court debut, and she's also going to be trying to make her first slam final in three years. Plus, with Coco's three-set record, Mujova is going to have to put this match to bed in straight sets. And that just seems like such a tough task with how Coco has been clutch and has shown her grit throughout this entire fortnight. Mujova did beat her in three sets in Stuttgart, but again, Goff's slam record is impeccable in three sets as she's 25 and 7 in slams when she's pushed to three. And Coco is the type of woman, type of player to round and to form as the tournament progresses. I don't really know if we can say the same with Muhova. I'm thinking back to the Miami Open, where she played a great match against Vicky and Boco, but then stunk up the place against Coco. Would not be surprised if we saw the same thing here. I do think that she will at least get a set. I can foresee this match actually playing out pretty similar to how the Australian Open fourth round match from this year played out to where Coco started stronger, but then Muhova came back and started playing better, had her looks in the third set, but then Muhovo, I mean Goff was just the more clutch player. So again, give me Coco in three sets. But that is all I have for this Wombledon women's quarterfinal recap slash semifinal preview. Let me know in the comments if you agree with my pick of having Coco come through in three, or do you think Muhova can get can continue her immaculate playing this tournament and make her second slams final? Again, make sure you all subscribe and click the notification bell so you're notified whenever I post that Djokovic Center semifinal preview. And thank y'all so much for watching and for your support. I'll see y'all next time here on Christian's Court.