Toronto '26: Sabalenka’s STILL struggling, Has Iga found her form?

Aryna Sabalenka suffered another tight three-set loss after falling to Ekaterina Alexandrova in the National Bank Open in Toronto. Sabalenka's results haven't been up to her high standards since completing the Sunshine Double...can she regain her top form by the US Open? Iga Swiatek is looking closer to her best after earning a revenge victory vs Marta Kostyuk.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:00

Yesterday in Toronto, one top woman star found their groove while another is still stuck in a bit of a rut. I was talking about Igos Fiantech's critical win over Marta Kostic and whether this is the result that turns for season around. Plus, I'll dissect Arena Sabalenka's three-set defeat to ekaterina Alexandrova and why this is another part of a honestly very concerning trend for the world number one. Hello, my name is Christian Bass Knight, and welcome to Christian's Court where I cover tennis from all angles. If you have not yet already, make sure you subscribe and click the notification bell so you're notified whenever I post more Canadian Open updates. So I want to open by talking about the world number one Arena Sabalenka falling to the 16th seed, E. Katarina Alexandrova by a scoreline of 7-6-4-6-6-4 in the Canadian Open round of 16. This result honestly wasn't that surprising to me. Alexandrova, she has had a terrible season. Even now, she's 14 and 18 on the year. And her only good results that come to mind was her beating Mira Andreva en route to making the Bata Ambro quarterfinal and then her making the Abu Dhabi semi-final. And Ikalarina, she's always given Sal Blanca problems though. That's why she's beaten her five times now, and the head-to-head is currently tied at five apiece. And I feel like when she's on, she can beat nearly anyone. And that's why she cracked the top 10 last year. Last year was her best season, and she spoke after this match about how she's kind of been struggling a little bit with the expectations of being more of a top player. I also asked Ikaterina if there was any specific area of Arena's game that she aimed to exploit, and she said that she was just trying to be aggressive, especially behind her return, and she more than achieved that goal tonight. She was all over on top of Sal Balenka's second serve tonight, especially. She never let up and she won 50% of her second serve return points. She also hit a number of really well-timed returns off the first serve, too. And I feel like she pressured Sal Balenka into hitting more double faults. Arena hit seven double faults to six aces, and five of those seven double faults came in the opening set alone. And it was really just a a not a great first set serving-wise from Sal Balenka. She made just 46% of her first serves in play in the opening set, and she won 47% of her second serve points compared to Alexandrova, who won 61% of her seconds or points in the opening set. And I feel like if Salanka just served better in the first set, then this could have been a 6'4, 6'3 type of set for the world number one. But Alexandrova looked to be closing in on a straight sets win. She had a couple break points in the second set, like namely at 3-2. But Sal Blanca was able to save them off with a little bit of luck. And Alexandrova, she still had a 40 love lead to hold for 4-3 edge. But Sal Blanca battled back and was able to break, and she ultimately took the second set. And Arena also broke to start the third set, too. And at this point, I thought that the match was kind of hers. But Arena's serve quality declined, and her backhand was honestly atrocious. And to be more specific, her backhand cross-court was not good. The backhand down the line was pretty okay and it won her some crucial points in the third set. But the cross-court backhand, she kept netting it. And I think she was just arming it a little bit too much. Arena does have a tendency of kind of like bunting instead of like really getting down and following through and finishing on her uh her stroke on the backhand side on the cross-court shot, especially. But Sablanka, she lost four games in a row to go down one four in the third set. But that around that time when she went down one four is when she played probably her best tennis of the entire match, and her serve quality rose again in the backhand looked a lot better. Arena was able to take advantage also of a little bit of a service dip from Alexandrova and got it to four all. But the problem I feel lies in that Sablanka was not able to maintain that level or take it up another notch to get the win. She saved two match points with aces, but she had a double fault on the third match point to give Alexandrova the match and the win. And I do have to give credit to Ekaterina because she does have the reputation of not quite delivering in the big moments against the top players, especially. And I thought that after Sal Blanca broke to start the third set, and also when Sal Blanca got it back to for all, that she could crumble and that Arena would have the edge. But a huge like hats off to her. She said after the match that her main thing was just trying to play point by point and it paid off and she got the win. Um, but I definitely think that she played a great match, especially for her standard. She served better than Arena, clearly. I think her return was excellent, and Alexandrova did a great job of changing direction a number of times down the line, especially off her forehand. Now, talking about Sal Blanca and the issues with her, I mean, first, I don't think it was just a god-awful performance from Sal Blanca. For sure, she didn't play her best, but it wasn't it wasn't terrible. I think for sure one of her biggest issues was the serve. Her first serve percentage, especially in the opening set, was nowhere near high enough. And I also think that she was too predictable with her serve placement, especially on the at side whenever she hit second serves. Very rarely did she go to the Alexandrova forehand on that at side on the second serve, or even if she didn't go there, she could have gone body more to take away the angle from Alexandrova. So definitely she's not serving at the same level that we saw her serve at at the start of the year. Also, of course, the backhand. I mentioned that before, that's been an issue. And then the variety, it just she hasn't been playing with the same level of effectiveness using her variety. You know, I saw that she tried to serve in Vali a few just a couple times. Um, I think she could have tried to come forward a little bit more, even though it's harder against a bigger power player like an Alexandrova, but I think she still could have varied the heights and spins of her ground stroke just a little bit more. The drop shots were pretty ineffective, and I feel like she used it a little bit more of like a bailout shot. And Alexandrova, her movement's pretty good, like she she read the drop shots very well, and a lot of times Serena was not able to well execute when hitting those drop shots. One of the biggest takeaways from this result is that Sablanka, her three-set struggles on this year continue. She's four and six in three-set matches, and according to Opta Ace, this is the most three-set losses that a world number one has suffered in a single season since Caroline Wolzenaki in I believe 2011. And it's an interesting problem to have for Sablanka to where she rarely loses in straight sets. But when she does lose, you know, it's it's pretty much tight three-setters. And she spoke to that point in her press conference earlier in the week when I kind of asked her about, you know, her Sablanka curse. Because since Rome 2025, anyone that's beaten Sabalanka before the finals of a tournament has gone on to lose the very next round. And I thought that Arena had a very interesting comment or statement when I asked her that question. Round one wouldn't, I believe, Andrea Pekovic highlighted an interesting stat that, like, since Rome 2025, anyone that's beaten you uh before the final of a tournament has gone on to loss the very next round.

SPEAKER_00 7:25

I was just wondering if you were aware of that sort of statistic and um or like were you aware of the trend and do you believe it's a coincidence or I think we just we should put this statistic and ask the players why would you even beat me if you know that in the next round this is what's gonna happen. No, I mean I think it's a coincidence to be honest. I don't know, maybe you know, because I feel like every match that I've lost recently, it's been like three sets match. It was like very challenging, very tough performance matches, and sometimes if they schedule the player next day, it's tough to pull out like really great tennis after you've been like playing three sets against uh the player. It just physically I feel like tough to you know recover. So I think it's just it's just a matter of scheduling and I don't know. I mean, but it's pretty impressive. We should talk about that more just to put some more pressure on the players.

SPEAKER_01 8:17

No, I do think definitely some of the top players maybe peak and play their best against Salanka because first there's less pressure on them, and then second, they know they have to play that well in order to get the win. And it's like I said, it's less pressure, and then the next round they quite aren't able to maintain that level, and it does take a lot of these out of these players physically to play at a level to beat Salenka. But I do predict but I do predict that the curse will continue here. Uh, up next for Alexandrova is Alina Spitolina, who is playing really great tennis right now, and she recently took down Amanda Anisemova 6'2, 6'4. Sablanka has been in a bit of a slump lately. I think that's we can't deny that. She has not reached the semifinals of a big event since the Shunshine Double. And I mean, objectively, her season post-Mami hasn't been terrible. I mean, quarterfinals of Madrid, Rolang Garros, uh fourth round Wombledon, Berlin semifinals, round of 16 here. I mean, it's not terrible, but Sablanka set such a high standard, and she's not really, she hasn't been beating that standard lately. So, of course, there's gonna be more questions about her form and her level right now. Yeah, she has not reached a final since Miami, and we just aren't used to seeing this from her, especially because I think at one point she'd reached the quarterfinals at 17 straight tournaments. So her level again of dominance was so high. But I truly believe that she's lost her aura or her Moxie ever since she lost to Haley Baptiste after having all those match points. A loss like that will do things to your psyche, and I feel like something is comparable to Iga losing to Madison Keys at the Australian Open, like you just lose your edge a little bit, especially in the tight matches. Because before then, Salenka really wasn't losing those type of tight matches unless it was against Elena Robacina. But right now, but speaking of Robacina, Sablanka's number one ranking is definitely more at risk with this loss, and it does depend on how Elena does here. I mean, she's playing as I'm speaking or as I'm recording this video. But if Rabacina wins Toronto, then that means that she would be just four ranking points behind Sabalenka. So Cincinnati will be a very, very important tournament for Arena, um, not only for ranking points, but her confidence as well. She has lost a lot of her streaks lately. I mean, her tie break streak and her tie break record hasn't been great as well as it has been previously. Again, like I mentioned, she reached like those 17 straight quarterfinals. She also had a streak of making consecutive quarterfinals at slams that was snapped at one within two. Yeah, it's definitely if you're a Sablanka fan, not great times for you, but on the silver lining of it all, you know, she did lose to a very good opponent in Alexandrova, and she also has never really played that well in Toronto. So I feel like while she's definitely not happy with losing, she's not beating herself up over it, I feel too much, considering how there's still Cincinnati and then the US Open. You kind of don't really want to peak for Toronto, if you're being totally honest. But also, Sal Blanca was in a similar position to this last year of where she lost. She didn't play Canada last year, but she did lose um in Cincinnati in the quarterfinals, not playing her best tennis there. So I think that'll give her some solace going into the US Open, um, where she also went into the US Open slam list last year. But I don't know, this feels a little bit different for Sal Blanca to be honest. She feels it feels like she's more and more losing her grip as the dominant number one, and again, it's kind of similar to what Iga went through. But speaking of Fiontek, the poll, she earned one of her best wins of the season when she defeated Marta Kostjak 3-6-6-1-6-2. This was definitely a revenge win for Iga after she lost to Kostic in straight sets at Roland Garrett's earlier in the year. And Kostuk had won her last 24 of 26 matches, so this was a great win for Iga. And Marta had just dominated Madison Keys, only dropping four games. Now, definitely wasn't the same level that we saw against Keys compared to her match against Iga, talking about Kostuk, and it was really we saw poor serving from both women in the opening set. Yes, they both returned well, but I feel like their first serves weren't as effective at all. And Iga, especially, she won just one single point behind her serve in the first set, um, which is crazy. And that's both her first and second serves where she just won that one point. And Iga said after the match that her speed of the serve just wasn't as high, but she also acknowledged that Marta was returning well, and Sfiantech better protected her serve in the second and third set. She was far more proactive, I felt, and she was actively looking to come forward and finish off points at the net. And I was very impressed too with her net skills, and I think that's definitely something that her and her coach, Francisco Roig, were trying to incorporate a little bit more. But Ika said in the press that she wasn't brave enough in the opening set and that she needed to go out of her comfort zone more, and she did just that. Her returning level was always high throughout this match. She was involved in pretty much all of Marta's service games, and she broke her three times in the first set alone, even though she lost the first set. Kostuk does not really, or she didn't serve big at least in this match. And Eagle was able to neutralize or even control points soon after, after returning. And I felt that she also is a much better wind player than Kostuk. The wind was definitely a factor in that match. And Marta, I remember she struggled a lot with the wind and her Roland Garrow's semifinal loss to Mira Andreva. And I feel like sometimes she just didn't quite know how to build the points, like she was pressing a little bit too much in my eyes. But I also think that Ida just does a much better job of using more shape and spin on her shots. Marta, meanwhile, I think just kept going aggressive, kept attacking returns even when her time was off. I think when you realize that you are missing too many returns, maybe you should take a step back and just try to get it and play more high percentage, but she wasn't doing that enough in that match. But Iga, I think, was also very, very gutsy and clutch, and that was crucial for her success. She was still tested a lot behind her serve, even in the second and third sets, but escaped some tight service games. And she saved six break points in the second set alone, three more in the deciding set, and things got a little bit dicey in the end for Sfiante. She needed six match points before finally getting across the finish line. And I think overall this was a massive mental effort from Iga because this honestly looked like it was gonna be another straight sets win for Costa after that opening set. But you know, the questions are is Iga back? You know, we've asked ourselves that question after she beat Pagula in Rome. Um so with that being said, I'm still not a hundred percent convinced of that she's like really back in top, top form. I think that I need to at least see her make the final here in Toronto. Or even I honestly, it might take her to win the title for me to really say that she's back and ready to truly be a top favorite for the US Open. She is the highest ranked woman in the top half of the draw. Up next for her is Deanna Schneider, who defeated the number three seed Jessica Vagula 6363. It definitely was not a great day at the office for Pagula, but I felt like this would be Dana's time despite her being 0-4 against the American. And I feel like she really should have won the first set against Pagula in DC. She was up 5-2, um, but she did not squander the lead this time in Toronto. And again, just a solid match. She finished with 12 winners, six unforced airs. It was an excellent return day also from Schneider, and I think that was one of her biggest strengths out there. Pagula finished with 16 winners, 21 unforced airs. Again, she was far from her best, but I think that this loss could be a good omen for her in her US Open chances just to get more rest after that quick turnaround from DC. But looking ahead at this Shiantec Schneider match, either one they're lone previous match in the Madrid, I think, round of 16, um, last year, but with a score line of six love, six seven, six, four. I think this would be a tougher opponent for Ega compared to if she would have to face Pagula because not only is Pagula a bit fatigued right now, but Diana will make Xiontek work a lot harder. She's gonna be more of a consistent player and she would definitely test Xiantech's rally tolerance more than Marta did. And I think that the way that Iga played against Marta, she needs to play against Diana as well, as far as being, you know, playing within herself, big targets, being aggressive-minded, and also trying to come forward a little bit more to finish off points there at the net. I might give the edge to Schneider, honestly, to take this one, but it's gonna be tight. Um, but regardless, still to me, I think the favorite to come through the final in the top half is gonna be Alinas Pitolina because she's just been playing really, really well lately. But we'll see if Alexandrova can indeed beat that Sablinka curse. But moving on now, talking about the men's very briefly. Um, our first two Montreal quarterfinals are set, and the most anticipated one is gonna be for sure between the two next gen stars, Rafa Hodar and Arthur Fees. Hodar made fairly quick work of eighth seed year Lehetchka 6363 to reach his third ATP 1000 quarterfinal of his career. This is the seventh quarterfinal for Hodar in his last eight tournaments. He's won 86% of his first serve points, so the serve has for sure been an asset for him this week. And of course, he faces Arthur Feast next, who took down Cam Norrie 6'2 to reach his fourth 1000 quarterfinal of the season. Things got complicated in the end for Arthur, and he had three match points at 6'5, wasn't able to convert, and he was also up 5'2 in the second set tie break, but he ultimately had to fend off two set points before getting the job done. So great effort for him to control it and get a job and get the job done in two sets. But looking at this Hodar Feast match, the head-to-head is tied at one apiece. This is their third meeting of the year so far, and I'm really I'm really here for this this brewing rivalry on the tour. I mean, they just met last week in DC in the first round, and Hodar won that match in straight sets. Feast won their very first meeting in Barcelona in three sets. It's gonna be, I think, uh another tight one. But I'm feeling like Hodar, it might be his time to to win his first 1000 title. But honestly, I feel like the winner of this match will win the entire title. But the winner of Feast Hodar takes on the winner of Nakashima and Luciano Dardari. I talked about Dardary in my last video, him beating Nuno Borges in three sets, but focusing on Nakashima, he is into his first Master's 1000 quarterfinal after he was previously 0-5 in the round of 16 stage at this level. He defeated Arthur Mitternesh in a Titanic tussle with a score line of 7-6, 5-7, 7-5. Brandon has been really having a phenomenal summer, a very low-key, but yet very good summer, reaching the quarterfinals, no, the semifinals of Queens and also the semifinals of DC, and now his first 1000 quarterfinal. And I think this is a great chance for him to make his first 1000 semifinal too. As Darderry, he's not like a top top player, like he's still top 20 player. It's gonna be tough, but it's a very winnable match in my eyes for Nakashima. And I do believe that he will win this match to reach the semifinals. Now, really quickly before I wrap up this video, kind of breaking news. I mean, I'm not breaking the news, but it's recent news is that Yannick Center would not be playing Cincinnati due to an ongoing knee issue. And you know, there have been rumblings that he was doubtful for this tournament, so I'm not surprised at all. I think that he will play US Open, and maybe he's just trying to be extra cautious about this potential knee problem. But definitely he's looking like a wide open or more wide open US Open field because you know, center, he can for sure play his way into form into a tournament. He did that in at the at Wimbledon, but you know, he was vulnerable. He was pushed to five sets in his first round match. So if his draw in New York is not the best, then I don't know, he could be vulnerable of an early round defeat, especially if he's not physically 100%. So that definitely makes things more interesting for the US Open, but not so much for Cincinnati as far as the fans are concerned, because no sync, no center, no Al Kadaz. You know, maybe Djokovic will be even more incentivized to play Cincy now. Uh, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ultimately decided not to play that tournament as well. So, you know, definitely some interesting times for the ATP tour. Let me know how y'all feel about it all in the comments. I know some people have not been pleased with it, but you know, it's definitely different. I'll say that. But that is all I have for this Christian's Court report. Let me know your thoughts on all the results, of course, namely Sabalinka's loss, and if you think that she will find her form before the US Open or if she is on a bit of a decline. And also let me know your thoughts on Shiantec and if you feel like she's on an ascent. And of course, give your predictions for that blockbuster holar feast match as well. But again, make sure you subscribe and click that notification bell so you're notified whenever I post my next Christian's Court report. And thank y'all so much for watching and for your support. I'll see y'all next time here on Christian's Court.