0101 Will TikTok Get Banned?

0101: Will TikTok Shop Get Banned?

In this inaugural episode of Shop the Scroll, Ashley Wright and Zain Ali dive into one of the most pressing topics for e-commerce brands, creators, and marketers—will TikTok Shop survive the looming ban?

Join Ashley and Zain as they explore the rollercoaster journey of TikTok Shop and its transformative impact on social commerce. They break down:

• The Ban Drama: Why TikTok is under scrutiny, the back-and-forth appeals, and what’s at stake for brands, creators, and consumers.
• The Creator Ecosystem: How TikTok Shop empowers creators to replace traditional UGC deals with scalable affiliate income—and what might happen if the platform disappears.
• Plan A, Plan B, and Beyond: Practical advice for brands already on TikTok Shop and those considering jumping in. Learn why waiting could be a missed opportunity and how to prepare for all scenarios.
• The Future of Social Commerce: Can Meta or YouTube fill the void if TikTok Shop is banned? Why TikTok’s low-pressure content model and affiliate-friendly ecosystem are hard to replicate.

Whether you're a brand owner deciding your next move or a creator wondering how the ban could reshape your income, this episode is packed with insights, strategies, and predictions you can’t afford to miss.

Tune in to find out why TikTok Shop is more than just a platform—it’s a phenomenon reshaping how we shop, sell, and connect. Will it stick around? Hit play to hear Ashley and Zain’s take!

🎧 Subscribe for more deep dives into the world of TikTok Shop and social commerce. New episodes weekly!

Transcript

0101 Will TikTok Get Banned

[00:00:00] 

Ashley: Yo, Zane, brother, how you been?

Zain: Good man, how are you?

Ashley: Yeah, good man. It's good to finally do this, this kind of like podcasting thing properly and obviously letting people know about the TikTok shop kind of journey rollercoaster because yeah, I think it's what, what the people want to hear, right? Yeah,

Zain: Rollercoaster is definitely a good word these days.

Ashley: every time I speak to anyone, whether it's like I say, people in the industry, brands or ability, it's just the rollercoaster is the best way to put it. Because like I say, you'd be, the highs are high, the lows are low and everything in between is literally just like a whirlwind slash rollercoaster. So no, I feel like it's, and it's just always moving so, so quickly as well, right?

Which like I say, a rollercoaster does if you're on a, on a good rollercoaster anyway. So yeah. Yeah, I feel like these kind of conversations will be good for people who can literally just kind of listen and kind of find out what's going on the TikTok shop kind of world. And yeah, kind of then see if people [00:01:00] like it.

We can obviously do a lot more of them, right?

Zain: Sweet, yeah, no, sounds good. I think it's good to have it in a bunch of different formats. We post a lot on, like, Twitter, LinkedIn, for people who like to read. Some people just want to, want to listen and, you know, Do other stuff while they're listening to the podcast.

Ashley: Yeah, exactly. And I think as well, the good thing, obviously, again, you know, tangible Twitter, here today gone tomorrow kind of thing. Whereas at least like, whether it's a video or podcast, people can watch it and go back to where it revert back to it and stuff like that, which is good. So yeah, hopefully this can be, um, something that people can find, find value in.

Yeah,

Zain: ethereal nature of Twitter is just, it's great for like that, um, that kind of breaking news, like what's going on the last 24, 48 hours. Um, but, um, YouTube podcasts, definitely. I feel like it builds up more over time. It's a little bit more. Long lasting.

Ashley: Exactly. That or, or sending memes out on Twitter. Since you're the meme King of TikTok

Zain: Yeah, that's honestly [00:02:00] where I feel the most comfortable. It's like I, um, have started cross posting over to like LinkedIn, which has done really well. Like I feel like LinkedIn is one of the easier places now to get traction as long as you're not like content because there's so much AI content that if you post something that seems genuine and well written, it can get some good reach.

Um, But even then it's just like it's not as much of my personality type is like Twitter. So

Ashley: Yeah, you are literally, I'm trying to find your footsteps. I can't keep up with your meetings. I don't know where you find them from, but yeah, you do this proud out there, bro.

Zain: appreciate it

Ashley: So yeah, so let's, I think obviously the main topic, well obviously topic in terms of what people think right now is, is TikTok shop going to get banned? What's the situation with that? Again, no matter who I speak to, whether it's. Again, people in general, family, brands, clients, whoever it is, everyone's asking me, Oh, what's happening with tick tock right now?

Is it going to get banned? Are you going to let you have no job and this and that kind of thing? So it was kind of good to kind [00:03:00] of like, talk about it, see where things are, what's your kind of on it as well. And yeah, just kind of give the people kind of like a, a bite sized information. Well, not by size, but a chunk in terms of what makes sense in terms of where it's going, our opinions on it.

And yeah, kind of go from there.

Zain: for sharing Yeah, I think if we were talking a little bit before We started recording. It's like if like business is like a rollercoaster like tick tock shop It's like a rollercoaster like this whole trial and this whole band situation has been like the epitome of a rollercoaster Just like one day the like the appeal the DC court says like nope The law is gonna stand and Um, like three Oh, unanimous decision.

Two days after that, they like deny any injunction to delay it a day after that. Tick tock, um, files and appeals to meet Supreme Court. Two days after that, they take the case. So it's just been like so up and down. Um, because it was, it was pretty scary when the, when the court was just like unanimously like, nope, this law stands.

[00:04:00] Um, and then who knows the Supreme Court's going to pick it up. They might not. They only pick up like a very small portion minority of cases. Um, but now it's, it's seeming like a little bit more positive where it's like, Hey, okay, the Supreme Court said they'll hear oral arguments. Usually it takes them some time to make decisions.

Hopefully they give tick tock some time, um, before they institute the ban on the, on the 19th. Hopefully they give them some time so that they can come to a decision. Um, So it'll be interesting. It's like, it's still like, they're keeping people on their toes where they're having decided whether or not to extend the date of the ban.

Um, so they're really keeping people on their toes. They're always doing stuff in the last minute. And I saw this tweet earlier too. It was like, I don't know if you've seen, um, there was like these new like, FinCEN requirements for businesses in the U. S. where like, you had to file, um, like the, all these like, um, all these like, paperwork.

Like, I think the fine was like, 200 per day that you didn't file it and only like 20 percent of businesses that file it. And at the very [00:05:00] last minute, um, I think it was like two weeks before the deadline, there was like a case where like a, um, some kind of group representing small businesses, Sue, the government said that it was like, you know, it was way too, um, just like burden some of a reporting requirement.

They won the injunction and it's like, okay, nobody has to file until, you know, there's more clarity on it. So I saw someone tweet like. Always do stuff at the last minute, whether it be like paying off government funded loans, like when it comes to the government, like government paying off government funded loans, doing like these new reporting requirements, because they almost always like issue a delay or it's like, it gets blocked.

Um, so I think we're seeing that as well with like this case where it's just like, it's going to come down to like the very last, the very last minute, like they might even make the decision to extend or whatever they decided to do on like the 17th or the 18th. Um, which I think why is like. Why TikTok is constantly setting these like dates were like, Hey, please decide by this day.

Please decide by that date so that they have time to then [00:06:00] pivot and at least the app stores have time to figure out what they want to do before the 19th. Um, but yeah, it's gonna be crazy. Like this holiday season, like the TikTok lawyers are probably working overtime trying to trying to figure out. The last minute adjustments to their Supreme Court appeal.

Ashley: Yeah. And that's being right. You mentioned, because again, obviously we'd be in the holidays period as well, because obviously what we're recording on the 20th of December right now. So the 17th is literally around the corner. And obviously once you get the holidays out, the new year's, it's literally 17 days to go.

So from your perspective, your head? I know you mentioned in terms of like you think it's not going to kind of go through, but what's what's making you kind of think that it's just based on just the chatter from like the tick tock perspective or just in terms of like these kind of like scenarios in the past?

What are you kind of thinking? It's kind of making you feel positive still about the whole situation.

Zain: Yeah. I think like everyone commenting on it, like on Twitter, like obviously no one's a legal expert. [00:07:00] Um, but you have things like poly market where like they're usually pretty accurate. Like if you saw the US election, it's like on poly market. It would. Basically be resolved or decided before it even, um, got, uh, announced on CNN, Fox, wherever you get your news.

So probably market's been pretty accurate where it's like, Hey, people are putting their money where their mouth is. It's not just some political commentator who's like grandstanding, trying to, you know, get clicks or attention by being like, it's 100 percent getting banned or it won't get banned. Like there's 0 percent chance it's, it's looking like.

30 something percent chance on poly market. And I think that's pretty fair. Cause it's like, okay, if the Supreme court has decided to pick up this case, um, they're going to hear it out. You would think that they would, um, that they're going to hear it out and obviously give input in some way. They might just say, Hey, the appeals court's right.

Or they might disagree. It's going to take them a lot of time because the Supreme Court, like the whole idea is that they, they come up with an interpretation of the law and whether it's constitutional and that kind of [00:08:00] stands for a long time, like this will help define the, you know, free speech versus You know, national security, where the balance is, it'll define that for decades.

So obviously they're going to take some time to do it. Historically, they take some time. You would think that they would give TikTok breathing room, because if they don't, then, you know, they have this, they have this standard where it's like, will it cause irreparable harm if they don't extend the deadline?

And you could say like, no, I can, can sell so that there won't be a repairable harm if they can't within like nine days, which, you know, reasonably you can't, you can't even sell a house, like within nine days, I heard you to sell a business and get a good price.

Ashley: Yeah.

Zain: talking like hundreds of millions of dollars, probably off the asking price because they have to sell. So it's a really bad position that, um, the laws put them in.[00:09:00] 

So you would think the court would be like, Hey, we're going to give them some, some time before we force this sale on them. Um, sale or ban, you would think like, that seems like the most logical Um, but I mean, it's a crazy world we live in. That's why I think there's still a 30 percent chance that they're like, nope, we're gonna, we're gonna let this law stand.

And then, you know, once, once you hear our, um, assessment on it, you'll understand why we let the law stand. But like, you know, good luck, sell that shit or don't, you know,

Ashley: Black and white, right? Yeah, I totally agree with that. And like you mentioned as well, I think worst case scenario, in my opinion anyway, is like say, there will have to be some sort of extension, because like you say, the council will set a rule on it, and then basically TikTok shop is just, or sorry, TikTok is just banned completely, because again, that's just not how it works, you know what I mean, in terms of that kind of thing.

So again, there will have to be like appeals, and obviously it will just drag out. So I do think, again, and again, just like here, like say, From a TikTok perspective, they're kind of treating this business as usual. Do you know what I mean? They're still hiring. There's so much [00:10:00] money in the TikTok kind of ecosystem right now as well.

So when you kind of speak to anyone at TikTok as well, you kind of feel confident, whether that's them just putting on a front, who knows, but at the same time, they seem to, they don't be paying these lawyers like cheap money. Do you know what I mean? They're going to have a good team in place. They're going to kind of be doing the right thing in terms of obviously trying to get this resolved.

And like you mentioned as well, not going to be, it's not an interest to sell because obviously as the propriety is the algorithm. they're selling the whole of TikTok to the U. S. That's obviously going to have an effect on obviously the other markets because they're selling obviously a part of what makes TikTok work Right.

So again, it's going to be down valuing the rest of the markets as well. So I feel like it's definitely longer Play with all of this and the 19th that's kind of on the wall right now But let's say if it does get banned I don't think it's going to be 19 midnight. Everything just kind of shuts down from from TikTok perspective for sure Yeah

Zain: the algorithm because a lot of the [00:11:00] people that I think aren't following it too closely will be like, well, obviously they're just going to sell it versus like, lose, like, A business that's worth hundreds, hundreds of millions of dollars, but then the complexity is like, you know, the fact that China has the algorithm on their exports control list, where if they try to sell, China can block the sale because what's in it for China for, you know, by dance to sell out, there's nothing and versus a U.

S. Company would start to understand how tick tock runs their algorithm. say they've done stuff, they've, they've ever cooperated with the Chinese government, then a sale might uncover things like that. So there's no real benefit for the Chinese government for like allowing the sale to happen. Maybe in like a strategical political move, you know, with Donald Trump's involvement where they would allow the sale in exchange for something else that the U.

S. Does that I think is a pretty, pretty small chance. I don't think it's You know, that's going to move that quickly. Or if tick tock, is that important to either side where they're going to, you know, come to like a deal, but yeah, I agree. And [00:12:00] what's also interesting is like say where to get banned. It seems like the biggest thing that Congress is pushing is just like the apps being delisted from the app store.

They've sent a, a letter, they've sent a letter and like reminding, you know, Google and Apple to do that, where. That's not too crippling in my eyes. Like, I think if they did that and then TikTok had two weeks to, like, pull some kind of maneuver, we get, you know, get some kind of pause to the law or sell the company, it gives them plenty of time.

Cause like, how often do people update their phones or how often do people install TikTok? I know there's probably. Thousands of downloads per day, but I don't think that's too big of a deal, but I also saw on the law they had, they prohibited like, um,

Ashley: Yeah,

Zain: where it's like, you know, I'm on like spectrum or like whatever internet and they have to block tick tock where then I can't use tick tock on my phone with wifi. That's a whole nother thing. That would be like effectively on the 19th. It's like either you're on [00:13:00] 4g data trying to get on it, or you're using a VPN, which most people aren't going to do so effectively, that would really kill it on 19th.

So that'll also be interesting. It's like, okay, maybe Google and Apple will pull it from the app store, which I think is another important point. It's like some people were saying, Oh, Trump's just going to say. you know, as soon as he comes into office on the 20th, like, Oh, tick tock is within, within the confines of this law.

It doesn't apply to them. Don't worry about it. Um, but then Google and, and Apple, they have like this, this fine that they can get if they're violating the law. And it's like per download. So I don't think they're just going to take Trump's word for it and be like, Oh, okay. Trump's not gonna, you know, they're just going to remove it because months down the line, or if there's someone else in, in, in, power and they could be like, Hey, you've been violating this law for like this long.

So that's another thing to consider is like, I don't think the app stores are going to be, you know, fighting for TikTok to stay on there. I think come the 19th, if it's like, Hey, They didn't reach a deal. They're just gonna pull it from the app store. Um, they'll sweat off their [00:14:00] back.

Ashley: I agree with that as well, because obviously the bigger picture when you think of like Apple and Google. TikTok is just another app amongst the thousands, millions of apps that's on the platform, right? So to them, they would prefer to remove that, no fines, nothing like that. If it comes back, then obviously they reinstall it, right?

So again, from their perspective, they've got to think in their best interest. They're not going to be like, Oh, we're fighting for, for TikTok. Let's keep it on, like, because. Why would they write them is it's not a win in their case, because again, like you say, they've got all the apps that they need to obviously be focusing on.

And that's kind of what that kind of a situation is. So yeah, no, I totally agree with that. So, with that, then in terms of obviously you as a brand owner, agency owner, what are you kind of doing right now? In terms of preparing for whether it's the yay TikTok continuing or no TikTok kind of gone.

What's kind of your thought process and what are you kind of doing to prepare for both scenarios? [00:15:00] Yeah.

Zain: it's gotten to a point where we're like, okay, you know, all life is about risk. All business is about risk. It's just like about the risk of just adjusted return of everything that you do.

And we've gotten so specialized in TikTok shop that we could take our eye off the ball and, and do something else, um, in the meantime. And what we're thinking and what the market is predicting is like 70 percent chance that like TikTok shop doesn't get banned. So it doesn't really make sense for us to do that.

Even if we were to spin up something else, it's just nothing is as strong and social selling as TikTok shop is right now. Um, that being said, like, Probably a good idea to like to, for us to not hire as aggressively, not spend as aggressively as maybe as tick tock is, um, because we don't have to try and instill confidence, um, the way it does.

So that's probably our move is like, Hey, we're going to, we're going to keep pushing on tick tock shop. We're going to keep taking clients and we're going to keep investing [00:16:00] money in it like normal because we're pretty confident it's not going to go anywhere. Um, if it does get banned, then we're going to have to pivot a lot.

Right. More quickly and we're not tick tock. We can move. We're a small business so we can move pretty quickly. We moved pretty quickly in the tick tock shop. We can move pretty quickly into something else. Um, I think that we'll see, you know, obviously everyone's talking about the flight of users. It's going to go to instagram.

It's going to go to youtube. That being said, do I think they're a shop is going to like youtube shop or meta shop is just going to, you know, Get to the point of tick tock, like functionally, just because users have moved over. Now, um,

Ashley: way.

Zain: think if you do like organic, like you do like organic drop shipping, like great, like Instagram is where I get a new, amazing for you.

Um, as soon as it gets banned, um, if you do like meta ads, I think it's gonna do amazing for you because there's gonna be more eyeballs. So if you can, if you can scale up, spend faster than these brands that are just like budgeting and every month they're seeing the performance and they're increasing, if you can just start.

Crazy shifting upspend, then you're going to be in a really good spot. Um, because obviously there's gonna be a lot of eyeballs on meta, but for us [00:17:00] who like specialize in social selling, I don't think that's, I don't think we're just going to move over to the shop there. I think our, where our specialties lie, um, between my partner and I, and like our businesses, like we've been media buying and meta, On tiktok running ads, doing all that.

So I think we would shift our focus there. Um, obviously there's a lot of talk about app love and like, hopefully app love and becomes like self hosted. I think that would be smart of them to do is like all these small businesses just try to move to mobile app games. Um, who knows when the self serve platform comes out.

But I think that would be a good fit for us. It's like, hey, we're pretty adept at running ads. Um, we can also source the creatives, but we Don't really love to do that. Um, that's not like our forte working with affiliates and sourcing those creatives, but as far as the media buying, I think there's going to be a huge shift.

So like people can really take advantage of like the ton of people go to Instagram. Those ads are gonna like the CPMs are going to come down cause there's more users. And then if you know how to scale spend on meta, you're going to have a really great, um, few months [00:18:00] until things like balance help.

Ashley: Yeah, no, I think, you know, down the head and a good point you made there as well in terms of like not pivoted yet, because like, like you mentioned as well, by the time you've pivoted, it's not like it's going to be a quick kind of change, right? If you, let's say you started to do, let's say an app loving agency all of a sudden, it's not going to be overnight.

You obviously have to build the infrastructure, even though you obviously got the skills, stuff like that to move over to another platform to obviously then build that reputation, change like you're kind of like. into that kind of, and all that kind of stuff that takes time, right. In terms of being able to do that.

And like you mentioned, and I agree with you as well. I like the high risk, the high reward side of things in terms of like being in TikTok shop and being in TikTok. Because again, TikTok was always a platform for me that I always believed in and trusted and knew that I would one point become a place where a lot more brands users will obviously like flock to it because again, there was just so much happening in the background.

And obviously. You plan all the seeds and [00:19:00] obviously it starts to become summit, which obviously is happening now. So the fact like I say, we kind of built up all them kind of reps in this kind of platform. I feel like again, once, let's say if it's again, playing devil's advocate, if obviously everything all goes to plan, we're obviously in the space where we're going to probably see an influx of more brands.

Once you jump on tick tock shop, there's going to be more users jumping to the tick tock shop. Because again, All this means, you know, if it's going to just push that wave of people, that wave of traffic to the actual platform right now. And just from that side of things, I think it, it makes sense. Cause I say, if it doesn't, if it does go down again, obviously we're skilled enough to be able to pivot, whether it's for the brands we work with now, whether it's for just in general, I think there's enough scope and enough, like. Whether it's like say the whole social commerce or whether it's media buying there's enough out there right now to be able to Move and obviously make the most out of it. That's that's my personal opinion. Anyway,

Zain: Yep, I definitely agree with that. There's also like that idea is like there's a [00:20:00] slide in like Game of Thrones where it's like chaos is a ladder, where it's like when things shift quickly, um, it's always an opportunity for whoever is like has the time and the energy and desire to take advantage of that.

And we saw that, like, for example, with covid, where it's like things shifted so quickly to the digital world that, like, if you were there to, like, Take advantage of remote work or you were there to like take advantage of all the industries that benefited from that sudden shift, then it was a positive thing for you versus if you were like a very large entrenched company, you're running like a, you know, franchise of gyms or something where you just couldn't pivot.

Then, like, obviously you just, you know, took a heavy hit or you're like a restaurant or something like that. Um, yeah. But for us, because there's gonna be so much change and so many big brands, so many different, um, industries where they can't move as fast, where they need someone that can just come in and do it, um, that's obviously a positive if you have the ability to do that.

Anytime I think there's a big change, like it gives a benefit [00:21:00] to the non incumbents. It's like the David versus the client. Because they can move quicker. That's like the biggest thing that I've seen, um, for a lot of the brands are doing well on TikTok shop is that they could have, they move so much quicker than some of the bigger brands and getting on the platform early because they could, because they didn't have to worry about.

Oh, this doesn't work with my existing ERP system. This is going to mess things up if I get on TikTok shop right away. Oh, I have all these maps, like the oldest, like minimum pricing. I can't, you know, flash sale 20, 30 percent without like getting, you know, making sure that my retailers aren't going to be pissed or whatever it is.

Like they had all these things that stopped them versus if you look at like the top supplement brands. On tiktok shop a few months ago. And even now, like none of them are like the big, you know, eight figure, nine figure brands, um, that were, you know, the incumbents like a year or two ago, it was like a lot of those smaller.

Very nimble brands, a lot of startups, um, a lot of like private labeled products, [00:22:00] just people on, you know, some of the brands are owned by like people who have like really strong creator connections or they have like a creator group. They were the ones that were able to move really quickly on TikTok shop and benefit the most when TikTok shop started to grow really quickly.

So I think that same thing will happen in this, in this regard where it's like, whatever. Get shifted to whatever gets sprung. Like maybe one of these tech companies is like waiting for the band because they know that'll be the best time to release a feature or something like that. It's very possible.

Ashley: Yeah, and that's, you know, down the head that I, I was thinking the same thing. I feel like they are probably whether again, it is Mesa, whether it's YouTube, they are probably wait in to see what happens with tick tock because obviously the time that takes us off, but around now you telling me that Mesa has not been trying to develop and get the social commerce to a good place.

Right. Cause obviously they tried it with Instagram, Instagram shops, but Didn't really work. They kind of missed that affiliate portion of it. So they're obviously waiting to see what happens in my opinion, again, anyway, because [00:23:00] I feel like tick tock does, let's just say disappears, who's going to be the biggest one jump and who's going to be the benefit from it?

Like save metal, whether it's from like a, uh, a media buying ads perspective, or again, then influences affiliates moving over or back to the platform, which again, you've got to keep in mind that a lot of these creators have probably moved from. to Tiktok shop because they know obviously we can actually make some good money from here from product commission, all that good stuff as well.

So again, I do think in the background, Meta are probably crossing their fingers that obviously Tiktok does go away because if not, I do think again, obviously, social commerce, Meta will become a force because again, just based on news space and all the good stuff comes with that. But again, If the longer TikTok stays around, they're always going to be chasing.

And I don't know if they will be able to catch up with TikTok at the pace that TikTok is also going right now. Yeah.

Zain: what's taking medicine along because they have instagram shop. [00:24:00] They have like, you know, just like the amazing number of advertisers. Do you see advertisers that are already there versus when tick tock shop started? Like I was talking to someone about this work to tick tock like they were cold calling people from like an office and like and like um, It's like a cheap office in like Mexico city.

They're just like cold calling, um, brands trying to get them on TikTok shop. Meta already has like all these brands that like live and die by Meta. Um, so I was always confused. I'm like, all they have to do is add in the affiliate portion. Right. They just need affiliates, they're going to get a percentage of the sales and they're going to make content and it's going to link to Instagram shop.

Um, so I'm not sure why that hasn't happened yet. Like maybe if the band happens, they're going to take advantage of it to like, that would be like the best time to launch it. Who knows? Um, for YouTube, I'm like, not as confident that they're really going to put that much effort behind it because I think Google as a whole is like, you know, 90 percent of the revenue is coming from like search and they're doing all this other stuff to like disguise [00:25:00] the fact that they're basically like a search monopoly.

They're like, Oh, look, we're, you know, we're We're so concerned about doing like some kind of like self driving car or like whatever it is. And then they'll,

Ashley: Yeah.

Zain: few months, they'll just like, shut it down. Um, not saying that they're not like really going into AI and like other things that they're trying to do with the resources that they have.

But at the end of the day, there's like no real competitor for like Google search. So I don't think they're going to be the ones that are like, Hey, let me get this. Like TikTok shop will do maybe like a billion revenue or like a billion in sales across stores in a month. And say TikTok's cut is like 6%, then they have all these expenses with like, they, you know, they have a pretty big team behind it.

They're doing all these subsidies. The profit from, um, TikTok shop is probably not huge to something like Google right now where they're like, Hey, you know, I really need this money. They don't really need that money. I think meta, like if tick tock shopper to get banned, there's like, on one hand, they might just, they adopt the affiliate thing, the shop thing, or, and I think this might even be where [00:26:00] likely they just continue business as usual.

Cause it's like, okay, great. Now we don't have a shop in the social selling thing. That's going to come and eat our lunch. We have more time. They're a huge, huge bureaucracy. Like you can see with ads manager on meta, it's just keeps getting worse. Like the UI is getting worse. The features are getting worse.

Okay. Performance was down this year, like Apple oven and starting to, to creep up for, um, DTC brands, um, which I don't think is that concerning for meta. I think they have a lot of different advertisers on, on there. We're, we're kind of in a bubble where we're like, Oh, meta is going to get, you know, screwed when Apple oven takes off.

It's like, they have a ton of different advertisers, not just like

Ashley: That'd be fine.

Zain: e commerce, uh, they'll be fine. Exactly. And I think they're still growing. So like every time you check their numbers, you're like, Oh man, I met a performance isn't great. Like nobody's doing well on meta, but you check the numbers and it's like they're growing every quarter, month, like quarter over quarter.

There's not right. They're making more money. It's like, yeah, they're doing fine. Like there's so many legacy brands that are probably running serious spend on meta for like the first time. [00:27:00] You know, there's so many, even like screenshots on Twitter. Then the numbers come out and it's like. e commerce has grown like 12 15 malls have dropped by 4 percent because there's just so many more entrants coming on and so many of them that aren't like they're not like small businesses that are tweeting about it they're just like these big legacy brands so i think meta will be fine without without shop i think youtube will be fine so it'll really The sad thing about the decision is if it does get banned, it's like almost going to slow the innovation of social commerce, which is taking off in Asia in the U.

S. Because nobody is like properly incentivized or has like the funding to compete with Tiktok. It was really just Tiktok. Like people, people have been posting that on the Tiktok app to where they're like, there is no other platform where I feel comfortable posting because Instagram is so polished and high pressure.

LinkedIn obviously like very corporate. Um, YouTube is still like very like polished that you want to make like a highly edited video. TikTok, you can just whip up and just like start talking to it like it's your friend and post it and it's [00:28:00] just like, it's very, very low pressure. Exactly. So like there is no replacement for it, which sounds like dumb, but it's like in effect, it's true until somebody comes up and like takes up that mantle.

Ashley: Yeah. No, it's very true. And that's the thing about it. Because again, I know we focus more on TikTok shop side of things, but like TikTok as a whole, like say you can literally just Get your phone out, create a video, whether it's green screen or something like that, post it, boom, it's out there, it's good to go.

Whereas like, say, the other platforms, it needs to have more structure, more focus, all that side of things. And you can see where all your platforms are going, do you know what I mean? Even like, LinkedIn now, they've obviously got video on there as well, do you know what I mean? Um, Instagram obviously has kind of taken our room from TikTok as well.

So again, TikTok has been leading, not just from like a shop perspective, but just from a platform, a social media perspective as well, but in terms of being able to get that reach. If your content is good, it can reach so many eyeballs. And I think that is still where Instagram is still [00:29:00] slacking. And again, like I say, the other platforms cannot keep up with that.

So again, I do think it will be, Uh, awakening if it ticked off was disappeared because again, and I think two ways. I feel like again, a lot of the creators will have a hard time maybe getting back to moving from tick tock Instagram, it all out in terms of what works on the platform from that side of things.

And obviously, if they're not gonna be able to make that kind of commission, because obviously not be able to sell and obviously going back to maybe whether it's I was not side of things where again, especially on Twitter, a lot of these, uh, affinities crates have moved away from UGC deals because they know they can make so much more from tick tock shop as well.

So again, it's going to be hard for them. And then also for brands as well, let's say from a, let's say organic perspective on tick tock shop, you can literally post. I found a story like to like now and then three hours later you could post it. I mean, Instagram is not different where you have to be concise about your profile.

You need to have like a whole strategy for it. And [00:30:00] again, it has to be like polished. So again, I feel like not just from TikTok as a whole, but I feel like the whole social commerce media space will definitely have a rude awakening. And I do think, like I say, it will be. A massive disrupt in terms of the whole ecosystem, because I feel like there will be a kind of a lull in terms of people trying to figure it all out again, which again, is obviously not what we kind of want to see.

We kind of want to be moving forward in the social, social commerce kind of way, rather than taking two steps back is yeah, which will be quite frustrating for a lot of people as well.

Zain: Yep. Yeah. And I like how you touched on creators because that's really like, that's the backbone of tick tock shop. That's what's created. All this is just like people making really good content and understanding content. And I do feel bad for a lot of them because it's, they've, a lot of them have, you know, quit their full time job.

This is their full time thing. They've made good money. That's been supporting their family by doing affiliate and of course they can move to like just creating UGC, but it's just so [00:31:00] capped the income. A lot of times where it's like maybe they're getting 150 per video, 200 per video versus TikTok shop has such a performance element to it where it's like, Hey, if you really work hard, um, and you, you understand how to sell, then you can make, you know, 20, 30, 000 a month.

There's definitely plenty of creators that are doing that. I think another big winner in this might be, um, if it does get banned would be those platforms that make it easy to track affiliate sales across platforms. So you have like things like social snowball where it's like they get that magic link, you're able to see the commission.

Um, definitely it's get paid out, you know, however, based on like what they drove, um, those platforms I think will benefit because now brands have gotten into this mindset of it. Like those platforms actually existed like well before tick tock shop, you saw tab and some of those early brand. Yeah, they've been doing this and I think tick tock shop probably got a lot of inspiration seeing tabs and and social snowball and like [00:32:00] that, that combination of like posting across a bunch of accounts on tick tock using affiliates and doing it a lot of it commission based.

I'm sure that that I mean, also tick tock earth shop has been in other geos for a while, but I think they definitely looked at some of some of that that was going on. And now If Tiktok were to no longer or Tiktok shop, no, we're no longer be a thing. So many of these brands have now seen the power of that, where they're like, Hey, if we have some affiliates that we just give commission to.

We can get some really good content and some and not having to pay a ton up front. So I think that is also, it is a model that will do really well regardless. Where's like, Hey, TikTok shop goes away and there's a platform that's like, Hey, I have a link or I have some other way of like tracking how much affiliates are making.

They can post on Instagram, they can post on YouTube. They can post on like whatever platform, like it doesn't have to be built into a platform. We'll track it. We'll attribute it. We'll help you streamline the payments. Those platforms [00:33:00] might. Might do really well as well, because then you're basically porting TikTok shop to like any, anywhere on the internet without needing the functionality of TikTok shop.

It just needs to be able to like link, um, so that they can put that, um, affiliate tracking in there. So that's also interesting seeing how that, that develops. Um, It is a good way for affiliates to still make, make, um, affiliate commissions and not just be like flat fee.

Ashley: Yeah, yeah. I mean, I say we always have to adapt, right? So again, obviously having these platforms already out there will definitely help support that. And again, obviously, like say someone's got to win, someone's got to lose, right? So again, there's always a winner and loser in these kinds of scenarios. So it's just kind of figuring out who's going to come out on top and like say, who's going to kind of lose from that situation.

So yeah, it's definitely going to be really just like. open it. It's kind of like, I kind of want to fast forward now to kind of see it, but kind of just like every day we're kind of just like waiting. There's a new change, there's a new tweak in terms of like what's happening update wise and stuff like that.

It's the kind of like, we just kind [00:34:00] of need to get to January now and to kind of like just get it over done with. But yeah, we're getting there. Um, I was gonna ask you is if your brand right now for the brands right now who are listening, what would be your piece of advice for them if they're, if I'm going to give two scenarios. If they are a brand that already on TikTok shop right now, and they then the second scenario is for brands who have been flirting with the idea of getting onto TikTok shop, what would you tell them right now? Yeah.

Zain: blame brands that are just like they're in the wait and see mentality. Cause if you're going to put a lot of time money into it, um, what's waiting one more month to get more clarity. Don't blame, don't blame that at all. Um, if I were them and I had like the extra bandwidth, I would at least get registered on shop, like get the account open, sync the products over.

That kind of thing. Um, just to be ready to go, because I do think if, if the news is positive, there's going to be a ton [00:35:00] of investment going into the platform where it's going to get really competitive versus if you were to first half of January, start pushing on it, I think it would be less competitive because it's really going to open the floodgates.

So many brands are just kind of that wait and see mode. Um, and then January is also great for like health and wellness. Um, and a lot of the brands on TikTok shop are like supplement brands. So a lot of them are going to be pushing hard first half of January because. They have inventory, they have revenue goals are trying to hit, regardless of tick tock goes down or not, they might even be pushing harder.

Um, and then that second half of January, if it's not going anywhere, it's going to be, I think it's going to be crazy in terms of how many brands are onboarding or trying to get affiliates or trying to dump money into it. Um, so I think same as us where you have to take like a risk adjusted approach where it's like, Hey, if you need to get, if you have really high sales targets, revenue targets in 2025, you may just want to take the risk and start.

Pushing from January 1st, and then if, you know, in two weeks later, if it doesn't pan out, it does get shut down, then it's [00:36:00] like, how much did you lose? You sent out like a couple hundred samples. He just started increasing your ad budget, whatever. Um, versus if it doesn't, then it's like, Hey, you're rolling by then.

Because we both know that it takes time. It takes momentum,

Ashley: Yeah,

Zain: to get going on tiktok shop. You got to hit that, like, it's like that second or third month that it really starts picking up. Um, so really, the sooner the better and really the initial investments, not huge. I mean, depending on what you want to do, if you want to pay a bunch of flat creators, I could, I could really add up, but if you just want to start seeding out some samples, seeing what products are getting the most interest from affiliates, making sure everything's saying, dealing with any like product certificate issues or like anything that's like flagging the products, you might as well start doing that now, in my opinion.

Ashley: Yeah, you think you nailed it on the head there. I feel like, again, it's that high risk, high reward, right? So again, like I say, if you are ready to kind of go, let's say you're kind of like in this down period where I'd say, if you're just in the holidays, you've got a bit of time to like, say upload products, make sure everything is all ready.

And then like I say, January, [00:37:00] send some samples out because like you say, The worst case scenario is you're going to send some samples out, you're going to get some content back. And if TikTok goes, do you know what I mean? It's not the end of the world. It's no different than if he was on Instagram sending some, um, some samples out to some influencers on there and who knows what happens from that side of things, right?

So again, it's not the be all and end all. So I totally agree with you on that. I think that Worst case scenario, if you've got the bandwidth, definitely just try it. Because again, I feel what's happened and especially like which we've got back to the last 12 months, there's always been muttering about Tiktok is going to get banned.

Tiktok is going to get banned. I've heard it so many times now. And I feel like. The brands that keep waiting for it to happen are the ones that regretting that they've not started earlier, because obviously now we've got like restrictions in terms of reaching out to creators. We've got obviously like, I had to get hot.

It's just getting a lot harder. So whereas like say the brands that were kind of like, well, again, which would say that the legacy TikTok shop brands. They're the ones that still reaping the rewards now from obviously just [00:38:00] jumping headfirst, trying it, breaking it, not bothered about getting signed off, kind of just like going for it.

They're the ones that kind of reaping it. And like say worst case scenario, if you started last January and it does get banned this January, if you've made some good money, it's not the end of the world. Right. So again, if you have to pivot, that is kind of where we're at. Right. So again, I feel like, yeah, you're spotting in terms of like say brands right now. If you're still on the platform, obviously continue as normal, because if it stops, it stops. It is what it is. If you want things to kind of get on there, then yeah, there's no harm in doing it, right?

Zain: Yeah, no, I like that. I like that mentality, especially in terms of like you're saying, like you're gonna get some content coming in. So if you have an affiliate that posted, you started to identify who are good affiliates, like they're driving some sales on TikTok shop. I mean, if it's gonna get banned, like the date, you know, the Two or three days before start collecting their contact information, get their WhatsApp and just transition them onto a different platform.

Cause they're going to be eager to do that. They're going to be wanting to do that too. Or they're like, Hey, who are the brands that want to work with me so that I can just, you know, start posting somewhere else, [00:39:00] posting on Instagram if it gets banned. So then you have their contact information. You start building that Rolodex of affiliates that are, cause it's really like 5 percent of your affiliates are driving like 90 percent of your Avenue.

Start getting them. Yeah, put them in a group, put them in discord, put them in like a whatsapp group, start to like, um, build relationships with them. And I think just like, very rarely, like you're saying, like, there's been talks of TikTok getting banned since like 2020. Trump has tried to ban it by like, executive action, like, it's gotten reversed, like, Like you said, if you've been waiting, like, you know, what has been like four years since like the first

Ashley: Yep.

Zain: talks of it getting banned, um, or like maybe from the start, like it was, it was all, it was always like, okay, this might get, this might not be here next year.

Um, pessimism is just like very rarely works like in your favor. It was just like, you know, the, the brands that were just like, okay, we'll figure it out mentality. Like, okay, if it gets banned, we'll figure it out. It won't be the world. Those are the ones, like you said, are, are starting to really reap the benefits.

It's what we've seen recently. It's like, there's [00:40:00] almost like kind of in the, a lot of people understand this from meta where it's like some of your past winners to have a lot of social proof and they've been like the algo just starts to really love them. That's what it pushes spend to. Even if you launch new creatives, it's like, Nope, these old creatives are going to outperform.

Same thing is kind of true on tiktok shop where it's like, if you have a product or a brand that now has all that social proof, like they've been on the channel going viral on and off for months, they have tons of orders and tons of reviews. Those are really going to win out versus like the new brands that are trying to launch.

It's just a lot harder because you don't have that social proof. You haven't had like viral videos yet. So it's like all those like existing performers, like. Even if you let off the gas, you stop sending samples. You start to like, not really care about TikTok shop. You're still hovering at like a very, a very solid revenue that like a new brand would kill to get to, uh, because they just, they're trying everything and they can't, so that kind of model of like, Once you get momentum, [00:41:00] you're kind of, you're good.

Um, and the longer you've been playing in the game, the more, the easier it is. Some of our top brands have just been on since they talk shop was a thing like they've been on for like a year. So if that's the way the world works a lot of times in DTC and marketing, where it's just like longevity, building up that social proof, getting something that like the algo starts to understand who to show it to after a couple of months, then it's like, it's, it's, It's very weighed in the favor of launching now and launching earlier and moving earlier.

Ashley: Yeah, I think you nailed it spot on there again, because I feel like it's the same when you do on any platform, the longer you're doing it for again, that social proof again, if you want Amazon, you launched obviously from day one, you're probably still killing it now, because again, you've just obviously got all that social proof in terms of your reviews, your sales numbers, the album is pushing more people to you, because again, it's that trust factor, because you know, All these platforms.

Then again, we talk about take top. All the platforms want is to make sure [00:42:00] their user customer obviously being fulfilled, whether that's obviously from a content perspective or good product quality, all that kind of side of things. You're ticking the box for that TikTok. All these platforms are going to keep sending users keeps their new traffic and you're gonna get rewarded for it.

So again, it's just all about just being smart about how you it. Treat these platforms, whether again, it's tick tock, whether again, it's metal, whatever, whatever another platform comes along, you just have to kind of play the game. You have to be in it. You've got to like, say, try it, break it. And just like say, first move advantage is always key, right?

Again, if you can kind of just get that, because again, what works today. Sorry, what worked like say 12 months ago might not work today. Right? So again, it's all about figuring it out. Kind of like out as much as possible. Okay, that's not working now. Let's change the game again. And obviously we both know, like Goli, obviously came on incentivizing, obviously all these creators again, incentives were not, was never, it's never anything new.

Do you know what I mean? In terms of like an info product supply, it's always been a thing [00:43:00] about Goli for, let's bring it to like TikTok shop. Okay. And obviously the awards were right. So, yeah, I think definitely just being able to be thinking outside the box, just playing the game. I think that's the way you're going to win going forward, whether again, it's TikTok shop or any platform, personally.

Zain: Yeah, a hundred percent. I think goalie is a good example within an example. It's like not only like they weren't the first movers on TikTok shop. They came in, it's like a few months ago. There was already like supplement brands doing really well, but they catapulted quickly by doing something like by being the first to do the affiliate contest.

Um, And now we're seeing a lot of brands trying to copy that model where they're doing affiliate contests. Some of them have great prizes as well, but it's really hard to get that attention that goalie already built from their first contest. So it's like an example with an example. It's just like a first movers advantage.

They were like, okay, nobody's doing this. We'll do it. And now they're still doing it. And those contests do well versus like a new brand trying to launch that contest. It's just like. You know, all the affiliates are already looking over at goalie. They know goalies giving out the prizes. [00:44:00] They know it's legit.

They know like the videos are going viral. The products are good. They convert. So it's just it's hard to get convince them to come over to your side, even if you're offering the same benefits. Um, and I like that you touched on Amazon as well in terms of like, The, um, the benefit of getting on there early, because now, like if you're, if you have a solid search rank on Amazon, if you just maintain that, it's just, it can be a crazy number of sales.

Um, and I think what's nice is like TikTok shop has always come in with that mentality, which is why I was always confused. I'm still not a hundred percent sure how the like checkout with Amazon was going to, was going to work because I've always thought of them as such great. The competitors, like I think that might have just been a rumor or it fell through pretty early because it's like, why would take, why would take that shop?

Let people, you know, check out on Amazon. I know they've, they've done those integrations and it does. I've seen a couple of videos where you can. Yeah. And I just don't really see them pushing that because I've seen a couple of videos where it has linked to Amazon using these new [00:45:00] integrations. But at the end of the day, like Dave, when they launched, I remember they were pushing so heavy on like the SEO terms, like make this like very searchable.

They give you like these new rankings where it's like fair or poor, if you don't stuff enough keywords. And at the beginning it was like, man, I'm not spending time on doing this because 95 percent of my traffic is coming from the videos. Nobody is, none of it's coming from search. I'm starting to slowly see that change where it's like, we do, when we're spending on GMB max, we do see like a good number of sales coming from the product card, which leads me to think.

It's, it's, it's hard to trace a lot of that thing, a lot of that stuff, but it leads me to think that like, hey, if TikTok shop is getting more and more mature, there's customers who are buying from it all the time, there's going to get to a point where instead of waiting for a video, influence them to buy something, they're just going to go on and search for it because now they're using TikTok shop all the time, they like it, they know that the ones, the products have a lot of orders and a lot of reviews are usually pretty good because they've gone viral.

So, um, It's starting to become a search platform in, in my [00:46:00] eyes, it might take some time, but like now it makes even more sense because it's like, Hey, if you're getting a lot of orders and reviews through these videos, through seating to affiliates, and then now there's also a search rank. There's like more search volume.

Then it becomes like even more of a first movers advantage because it's like, you know, It's not as much like Amazon where you're just going to pour a ton of money into like PPC or something and try and improve your search rank and do all these things. It's like you almost have to get your search rank from going viral on to the effect to the video side.

So I think it won't be as easily gameable, which means like you do have to push heavy on tick tock shop the way it was meant to be with like with videos and really good content and then benefit from the search traffic spillover, which could be huge, like being like the number one keyword ranked for Ashwagandha.

Gummy or some other crazy like product that's going viral on tick tock, where then people start searching for it. That could be huge as well. And what we're seeing with Amazon is like people, [00:47:00] everyone except the customers seems to be happy with it. Like customers still like Amazon. Like I use Amazon two day shipping.

That's great. Like we're seeing like the workers doing strikes and just like being very unhappy with Amazon. We're seeing brands become very unhappy with Amazon where they're, where the fees keep increasing. The TikTok shop seems like the only good alternative where it's like, you know, the fees aren't that high.

It's like 6 percent category fees. They're doing still doing some subsidies or doing some partial subsidies of free shipping. Um, and you know, consumer sentiment still seems to be pretty good on TikTok cause they've been pretty strict on like violations and things for brands that didn't have good reviews.

I haven't heard, I haven't seen a lot of videos where people are complaining about TikTok shop. So as long as it's good for the customer and then like, It's still good for the brand where like a lot of brands are onboarding the TikTok shop and maybe fewer of them decide to get on Amazon because I think once you're on Amazon, you're, it's kind of golden handcuffs.

You're like, wow, this sucks. I'm making like 2 percent profit, but

Ashley: But I'm

Zain: it's driving so many units. [00:48:00] Yeah, you're not going anywhere. But like if some of these newer DDC brands are like, Hey, I don't really want to get on Amazon because I think it's It's just gonna be a pain in my ass having to deal with all these fee increases all the time and being worried that I'm profitable.

I'm just gonna on board a tick tock shop first before I go to Amazon, which I've seen some brands like I've seen con pie foods there on tick tock shop. I don't think they're on Amazon and they're in retail, so I've been seeing that happen. If that becomes a trend, then I think Amazon definitely has something to worry about.

Ashley: Yeah. No, I definitely think it's a trend where we're speaking to just people in general or brands or like people thinking to launch. They're kind of thinking with that mentality of TikTok shop first stop there as that channel to kind of get that kind of discoverability. And obviously from then onwards, go to then Amazon, even like. People are thinking more TikTok shop over DTC now as well, which is interesting as well to kind of think, Oh, that's the thought process where some of these brands are going in terms of thinking, okay, if I get this right as a channel, then kind of bring everything else into kind of ecosystem, which again, 12 months ago, that was never going to be in [00:49:00] anyone's thought process.

It was always going to be, you need to have DTC first, then Amazon, then maybe even retail. And then maybe this thing called TikTok might kind of work and add to the rest of it. But yeah, it's definitely flipped on his head from, from that side of thing, which again is. Really interesting how in such a short period of time, everything is literally kind of flipped on its head, which again is just crazy to kind of see.

Exactly.

Zain: gotten really, really interesting. Like a year or two ago, there was even like Amazon first, right? There was all these like courses about like I'd be an FBA seller on Amazon where you were just like almost just like private labeling and like, or like even some people would like launch a private label brand on Amazon first.

That's kind of gone away. I don't see a lot of people talking about that as much. I'm sure it still exists a bit, but it's like now if you were to launch a, a brand from scratch. Especially if it was like a supplement brand, you would be most likely tiktok shop first. Um, you wouldn't be amazon first, you wouldn't be like meta ads first.

Um, so that's interesting. And [00:50:00] I, I see that becoming a thing for food and Bev as well. You're seeing all these like big brands, um, on tiktok shop, like prime bites and things like that were like, they're doing so well on tiktok shop. It's been one of the categories that's been easiest for us to get traction has been tiktok shop.

So I'm thinking like If you can design a brand that's just very tick tockable, right? It's just like has those aesthetics. It's got a really cool form factor. It's got protein or whatever the flavor of the month is in terms like ingredients. Yeah. You have that and you design it for tick tock shop and you'd launch it on tick tock shop first.

Then it might even be like, that's your core business where it's like the Amazon is just because I've, I've seen that now more as like, okay, let me capture the organic spillover, the organic demand spillover to Amazon. Let me be on Amazon to capture that. Um, not really like, okay, let me try and like, spend a ton of money on ads and like, try to get a lot of people to buy on Amazon.

It's just like, okay, if they're going to [00:51:00] be searching on Amazon for my brand or the product already, let me not let it go to a competitor, which, It just doesn't seem like a very long term great thing for Amazon where that's how people are thinking and not like, let me watch my brain on Amazon. Let me make, let me funnel everyone to Amazon.

Ashley: that's very true. Oh gosh, I could talk about this all day with you man, but I know obviously we're pushing for time now. With everything said, what's your kind of last thoughts in terms of TikTok shop, van, when we reconnect, will it be here? Will it not be here? What's your final thoughts?

Zain: Yeah. Final thoughts is that I don't think it's going anywhere in 2025. Um, I think it's just, these things take time to play out. There's still a lot of like challenges and questions that I think like need to be like settled, um, before it'll go anywhere. Um, we'll see. By the next time we, we talk, we'll, we'll know if, if we were, if we were accurate in that or not,

Ashley: Literally, right? So as soon as, as soon as everyone listens to this, the next, [00:52:00] podcast, hopefully it will be as kind of either celebrating, obviously TikTok shop continuing or me and Zane crying, looking for jobs at the job center.

Zain: yeah, there might not even be another podcast, man. If that doesn't, you know,

Ashley: This could be the one, one of one. So I hope you all enjoyed it. But no, everyone, thanks for listening to this. Again, obviously Zane, it's been a pleasure speaking to you, man. I hope everyone obviously found this as useful. Cause again, even for myself, I find these useful to start these conversations.

I think that it's just perfect to kind of just chat about what's obviously happening in this space right now. So yeah, I hope everyone gets some value from this.