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The Iran Conflict: What’s Really Happening In the Events Industry

• W4 Podcast Studio • Season 3 • Episode 5

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0:00 | 45:43

The scariest part of a crisis isn’t the headlines, it’s when the phone stops ringing.

In this special episode, we look at how the Iran–US conflict is affecting the UAE and wider MENA events industry, cutting through the noise to focus on what professionals are actually experiencing day to day. Host Ian Carless is joined by Mark Benaicha, Managing Director at Esmos Recruitment, to unpack new data on market sentiment.

From shifting timelines and cautious decision-making to the knock-on effects across the supply chain, we look at how different parts of the industry are responding and what that means for the months ahead.

If you work in events, conferences, exhibitions, experiential marketing, venues, AV or production, this episode offers a clear, honest view of what’s happening beneath the surface and the questions every business should be asking right now.

Production Credits:

Presented by: Ian Carless
Studio Engineer & Editor: Manny Penamora
Executive Producers: Ian Carless & Joe Morrison
Produced by: EventNewsDXB & Poddworx

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News Montage And Reality Check

SPEAKER_02

Hi, I'm Ian Carlos, and welcome to a special edition of the Event News DXB podcast.

SPEAKER_12

An extraordinary operation overseen from Donald Trump's Florida home as Americans absorbed the news of his latest intervention. Well, Americans are waking up on the second day of this US confrontation with Iran.

SPEAKER_18

The U.S. Defense Secretary said today that the war with Iran has only just begun.

SPEAKER_00

It is day 11 of the US-Israel war with Iran.

SPEAKER_17

Today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran.

SPEAKER_00

We begin our program tonight with a special report as the Iran War enters its fifth week.

SPEAKER_20

When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.

SPEAKER_18

The war with Iran is, quote, very close to over. That's what President Trump told Fox Business. We are witnessing a grave threat to international peace and security. Military action carries the risk of igniting a chain of events that no one can control in the most volatile region of the world.

SPEAKER_02

Well, that's certainly not the normal introduction to the Event News DXP podcast. And I have to be honest, this is a podcast I was really hoping I wouldn't have to make. For almost two months now, we've all been watching events unfold across the region. And naturally, that raises questions about what it means for the event industry. As with any major geopolitical crisis, it generates a lot of noise. So I thought it might be useful to try and sift through some of that chatter and try and make some sense of it all. To help achieve that, I wanted to ask the people who actually work in the event industry what they thought. So I posted a request on LinkedIn for people to answer a few questions, specifically about the impact of the conflict on their business. So first up, a huge thank you to everyone that took the time to answer those questions and send in their sound bites. To be honest, many of you responded to a lot more questions than I anticipated, and definitely more than we have time for in a 30 or 40 minute podcast. That said, I've tried to include at least one or two comments from everyone, and more importantly, what the answers did give us was a great snapshot by which to shape this podcast. What's interesting though, and this is where it gets quite useful to step outside of just anecdotal conversations, is that we also have some data to back this up. Because alongside these conversations, there's been a report published by Esmos Recruitment, looking specifically at how the Middle East events sector is responding right now, both from an employer and employee perspective. And with me to discuss the findings of that report is Mark Banisha, Managing Director of Esmos Recruitment. I should say though, please do bear in mind we're not Gallup or Nielsen, and this is only a snapshot. But hopefully you'll find it useful. So let's get into it. For events and the event industry in particular, it's not always immediately obvious how the impact from global and regional crises shows up. Similarly, with so much sensationalism dominating international news cycles, it's often hard to separate fact from fiction. So in this episode, we're taking a step back to look at what's really happening, not just from a headline perspective, but from the point of view of the people actually working in the industry day-to-day.

Industry Soundbites From The Frontline

SPEAKER_07

I had seven confirmed events for March 2026. Every single one of those events was cancelled. The phone just stopped ringing.

SPEAKER_20

So we had various shows in the can, and then they all got pushed when the uh war started.

SPEAKER_03

I'm exceptionally confident about the revenue, and I've got a very specific number in mind on the revenue, and that number is zero. If you don't laugh, what can you do?

SPEAKER_02

Okay. Well, when you hear those comments back to back, it really does sound pretty dramatic. It feels like everything has just fallen off a cliff overnight. And let's not shy away from things, the conflict between Iran and the US has had a profound effect on the world economy. But let's strip those comments back a bit, because I think the way this situation is being talked about publicly, and what's actually happening, certainly inside the event industry, are two slightly different things. If you follow the news around Iran and the wider region right now, everything is framed in quite dramatic terms: escalation, retaliation, fragile ceasefires, and naturally that creates a sense that everything around it should also be reacting in extremes. Everything is either shutting down or everything is fine and we should keep calm and carry on. But when you actually speak to people running events businesses day to day, then not surprisingly, neither of these extreme points of view paints an accurate picture. What's happening is much more subtle, and in many ways more difficult to manage. Not only has work disappeared overnight, but perhaps more importantly, confidence has also. And once confidence starts to disappear, everything else starts to shift with it. Timelines, budgets, decision making, the whole caboodle. Now, as I mentioned, with me on the podcast this week is Mark Banatia, managing director of Esmos Recruitment.

SPEAKER_04

Mark, welcome to the podcast. Thank you. Always good to uh participate and be involved. Yeah, even in these times. Even in these times, indeed.

Pause Versus Collapse

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, we seem to find ourselves once again in in very sort of strange times, turbulent waters, but at the same time somewhat familiar, right?

SPEAKER_04

Very familiar. You know, I I was explaining to someone the other day, um, you know, e even our own business, you know, we were born out the back of the pandemic. Now, prior to that we obviously had the uh the global downturn. So there is um an air of familiarity with it all.

SPEAKER_02

There is, isn't there? I mean, I don't even want to go back and sort of refer to that that horrible word of COVID, but uh so so let's just jump forward to where we are now. We find ourselves, as I said, in very in very different waters. Look, it's a troubling time for the event industry. But uh we've all taken little steps to do to do what we can to get ourselves through these times. And one of those things from your side has been uh a report, hasn't it? The state state of the industry. Do you want to tell us um actually give us the full title of the report and then tell us a little bit about what what went into that?

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, so uh look, we as a business historically we would always put out an annual salary survey where we would go out and speak to as many of the event businesses as possible and kind of collect real refined data in terms of salaries and different positions to create a market average. We felt given the circumstances this year, it was perhaps a little insensitive across the market where some people were losing jobs, some people were taking salary decreases. Um it just didn't feel right. So, what we had said we were going to do was put a Middle East event sector impact report together. So we went to market, we spoke to well over a hundred uh different employees from various sectors of the event industry, so from supply to A V to the organizers, the venues, the client side. So we we really wanted to create a a market sentiment report that that was really reflective of what is going on in the current situation.

SPEAKER_02

Well, let's let's dive in straight away, shall we? Because I think there's been some really interesting learnings, both from from your report and and obviously the things that uh I've heard back through the sound bites that people have been sending in. And one of the things that the report makes very clear is that what we're hearing anecdotally is being reflected almost exactly in the data. Uh two points really. The first is the market isn't collapsing, uh, and the second is it's just pausing. And that's something that's been echoed in the comments we've received.

SPEAKER_18

I'd say almost half of our pipeline was put on hold. We were working with uh a large experiential company in the region, and there were about five positions that have all been put on hold.

SPEAKER_15

From where I sit, I think the most immediate impact has been hesitation rather than shutdown. It is not that projects suddenly disappear, it is that momentum slows. Decisions that may have taken a week now take more. Clients still want to proceed, but there is a greater need for reassurance before they commit budgets or lock-in dates or scale production.

SPEAKER_09

Budgets haven't disappeared, but they are being released later and with more conditions. Um, there's less appetite for irreversible spend early on. So the investments into events shifts closer to delivery, and once confidence is established that it can be done.

SPEAKER_10

I think it's clear from the onset that we're all seeing the same thing. It's systemic from the top down. Decision making is just hold, hold, hold.

The Esmos Impact Report Explained

SPEAKER_02

There's an interesting line in those sound bites: hesitation rather than shutdown. I think that might be one of the most accurate summaries of what's happening right now. Because it's it's not that the industry has stopped, it's that it's slowed. And that's a very different problem to deal with. And when you overlay that with the data, it becomes even clearer what's happening. So, for example, your report found that 100% of employers report revenue impact. Well, obviously that goes without saying, and around 59% describe that impact as significant or critical. But interestingly, the root cause is events being pushed or postponed and not cancelled outright. So, Mark, what's really happening underneath that?

SPEAKER_04

Well, I look, I I I think it's exactly that. Now, when I looked and analyzed uh the results uh from the Action Impact Report on the employer side, what we found the majority of those businesses who identified kind of significant to critical were more on your agency and supply side. Now, I I I've often been fond of kind of really breaking the event sector down into its own little boxes, supply and agency, they're heavily dependent on either clients or some of the bigger organizers to kind of really funnel their revenue streams. Now, when those tier one organizers and you know clients actually pause, then that naturally has a trickle effect to the rest of the industry supply chain. So your A V companies, your stand builders, and so forth. So I spoke to one founder who estimated you know, between the beginning of the current situation to around July was going to cost him around 10 million derums just to remain as he was now without any revenue coming in. Yeah. But you know, with the push of major events, which obviously affects the entire supply chain, it it's just created this vacuum to where Q2, everyone seems to have written off, Q3. We're seeing some signs of events coming back a little bit early. Um RFPs are beginning to go out, um, some small government conferences are going to be taking place, which again starts to feed back into the industry supply chain.

SPEAKER_02

So I think that you know, uh essentially when you look at this uh and you know, and obviously taking away the some of the experiences that we went through with COVID, it's really a cash flow problem, isn't it? It's not it's there's no there's nothing inherently wrong with the event market in the in the Middle East or the or Dubai. It's actually just where people, how much money have people got in the bank? Do they have enough cash flow reserves to get them through now till where we hope the market is gonna rebound, which we think or hope is gonna be Q4.

SPEAKER_19

There's a huge question mark on whether or not the next season is gonna happen, which is obviously should be starting end of August, early September. And there's a huge uh reliance in the events industry on that happening, actually, that the season's gonna come back strong for Q4, and that's what we're all hoping for.

SPEAKER_01

Right now, uncertainty is reshaping our events industry across the UAE and MENA region. When markets slow, it's tempting to retreat. But those who use this time to build, not just defend, position themselves to thrive later.

SPEAKER_05

What I'm seeing right now is very reminiscent to the COVID days. We're seeing that hesitation, the pause, the concern for people's well-being, which is very valid. Um but it's mostly what we're seeing is that that fear uncertainty in terms of not really understanding what is happening next.

SPEAKER_06

We're definitely seeing some caution when it comes to budgets, especially from larger organizations. Some companies are temporarily paused sponsorships or delayed decisions until there's more clarity. But at the same time, we are also seeing brands that understand the importance of staying visible and connected with the audiences even during uncertain times.

Revenue Hit Driven By Postponements

SPEAKER_03

The sentiment within the industry in the Middle East at the moment is quite reminiscent of COVID, where I suppose planning and hoping for the best, but in the background, putting sort of tier two, tier three plans together to uh to put some contingency in. Obviously, nobody's in control of anything that's going on. So looking at what does it look like, I think we all can agree that we all have no idea what's going on, really. But we are, I suppose, hoping and believing that it's going to be resolved enough by the time September comes to allow those that work to return.

SPEAKER_02

Some great comments there, Mark. But of course, not everyone in the industry is experiencing this in the same way. I guess depending on where you sit, whether you're an organizer, an agency, or a supplier, um the impact can look quite different. And that's where things start to get a bit more complex, right?

SPEAKER_04

I think you know, different segments of the industry are managing it slightly differently. Um, again, with your supply and agency heavily dependent on the organizers and venues. So they're the most bootstrapped. So for them, you know, cash flow management is absolutely essential. Your larger event organizers, so your DMGs, informers, messays, world trade centers. Now, a lot of these guys also host international events outside of the UAE and a GCC. So they still have a revenue pipeline still completely coming in, and you know, that's the difference between the COVID era and this. With COVID, it was a global halt on events altogether. Um, with this, it's regional. So those larger businesses with the international portfolios, they're still generating revenue. So, you know, seeing how it's been managed across the industry with different businesses has been, you know, just a huge learning curve. But cash flow is pretty much the goal for everyone at this stage.

SPEAKER_02

Well, we talk about, you know, a lot of the number of events that are being pushed or postponed and and and the majority of those now looking like they're gonna land in Q4. I think you had a good stat on this, didn't you? 76.5% of events have been postponed or rescheduled to Q4 or beyond. We're effectively looking at a backlog, aren't we, of of events that are gonna land, hopefully, you know, with a big with a big wallop in Q4. But that in itself also brings some risks, doesn't it? We're we're heading into a really compressed and sort of high pressure period later in the year, and that's gonna create all kinds of supply problems, isn't it?

Cash Flow Pressure Through Supply Chains

SPEAKER_04

It will. I mean, look, realistically speaking, it's a complete roll of the dice, right? Because no one actually knows if and when things are going to happen, when things are gonna stop. But look, Q4 seems to be the the go-to time of year that everyone has pushed back to, and like you said, that's going to create a real heavy backloaded year. Now you'll start to see, and we should already start seeing now work beginning to process ahead of those events because they obviously take time to plan and prepare, which is great for the industry and market confidence as well. But like you said, it it's high risk, high reward, right? Because we're going to have this huge market correction, this huge bounce back, all within this 12-week time frame. And you know, there's a million things that could go wrong. So it's a wait and see. But I do think it's um a welcome comeback for everyone, regardless of what part of the industry you're in, because um the in-person events, whether it's an experiential event, a conference, an exhibition, a live event, you know, everyone is yearning for it from the businesses to employees to just the attendees. So it's gonna be interesting. I I do foresee a very, very busy Q4. All the signs that we're looking at, it's everything is pointing to then.

SPEAKER_09

I think that the pipeline is there, but the timing is by far harder to predict. The revenue doesn't uh vanish, but it is postponed. It comes in bunches, hopefully in Q3, Q4. This means everything shifts. So right now it's about keeping production capacity available to hit the point when the clients actually come back and want to do things quickly and in huge amounts, I think.

SPEAKER_08

I think Saudi feels like it's gonna open up quicker. People in Saudi are saying it's business as usual on the streets in Saudi. It's obviously less impacted, so it's just about when, really. When will we go back to normality? Will we enter a new normality? Um, we don't know.

SPEAKER_11

I wouldn't say we're particularly confident on any revenue. I think it's a case of preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. Um, we're well aware that the season is essentially over in the UAE and it'll be a very, very long summer.

SPEAKER_13

From where I sit, I don't see that things have stopped. Um, to be honest with you, what has changed is only how decisions are being made. Most clients are still moving forward, but there's a lot more focus on timing. There's focus on logistics, there's focus on the need of scenario planning, and I'd say this is the most important bit. And of course, everyone is seeking clarity, and you know, they need to be more conscious and cautious about what they are doing.

Q4 Backlog And Compressed Risk

SPEAKER_07

I'm optimistic that good sense will prevail, geopolitically speaking, and that we will see some return to normal levels of activity by the end of the year, but it's going to take a full year or more to recover some of these losses, even if we have a really busy Q4.

SPEAKER_10

I'm not confident that we'll see any substantial amounts of money coming in from events in the UAE, in Saudi, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman. I just can't see anything really picking up until October. Unless we just have a categorical ceasefire and truce, and there's peace across the region.

SPEAKER_02

Well, safe to say there's not a huge amount of confidence in the event industry being able to generate much, if any, revenue before Q4. But what's also interesting is the mood of the industry, and especially that nobody's sounding very passive at the moment. People are sort of wanting to double down. There's almost a sort of keep calm and carry on kind of uh approach, isn't there? You know? Absolutely. I mean, look, it's obvious, isn't it? Businesses are in a very defensive mode at the moment. And and just picking up on some of your stats, I mean, what you've highlighted as over 70% of the market is not hiring at all. More than 80% are reducing or stopping freelance usage, and a little over 40 you say are making are making redundancies. Now, not surprisingly, you know, it's the freelancers that are taking the biggest hit there. But at the same time, you've also got another stat there, which you're saying that 94% of businesses are actively trying to retain staff. So there's a really interesting tension in that data. Cuts on one side, but a strong focus of retaining core staff on the other. What does that tell you about how businesses are reading this moment?

SPEAKER_04

Well, the first thing that does tell me is the absolute gulf indifference and the learnings taken. And, you know, sorry to keep going back to that COVID era, but you have to have a point of comparison. Yep. In in 2020-21, we saw mass redundancies across the industry, and a lot of people were hurt, a lot of businesses were hurting as well. And people are very reluctant to go back to that. It was such a pain point for the industry as a whole. So the biggest taken, and this is through not just the survey, but my own conversations with business founders, presidents, CEOs, HR directors, you know, retention is the absolute top priority, which for me is an absolute godsend and something that's just fantastic to hear. So by protecting those people, I think is the biggest learning curve we could have taken from that.

SPEAKER_08

The mood is not great amongst peers and clients, and especially freelancers. From where we sit, it is a tense time, especially for the freelancers, and I really feel for the freelancers and in the market for the self-employed.

SPEAKER_11

There's a lot of concern over the uncertainty of the future. I've heard many stories about people being sent home, losing their jobs, hiring, I think, has paused traumatically.

SPEAKER_14

Well, I've spoken to a lot of my uh clients, a lot of my suppliers, a lot of my vendors, and uh most of them have sent their staff back home. Uh there's there have been salary cuts, there have been a 50% reduction.

SPEAKER_10

Well, I think the immediate impact is just how quickly everything came to a grinding halt. Of course, you know, um revenue, uh incoming money has pretty much stopped, and you know, we're still owed a lot of money, and that's the conversations most of the people I've spoken with over the last six weeks are saying is the fact they're not being paid yet.

SPEAKER_13

Well, moments like this tend to separate the agencies that were crisis ready from the ones that were just busy.

SPEAKER_02

That last line, Mark, moments like this separate the agencies that were crisis ready from the ones that were just busy. I think that really cuts to the heart of it, doesn't it? Because we are hearing very real concerns, you know, layoffs, delayed payments, freelancers being hit particularly hard. So it naturally raises the question that have companies actually got the balance right this time? Are we seeing a more measured response or are some businesses still reacting a bit too quickly under pressure?

Hiring Freezes And Freelancer Fallout

SPEAKER_04

It's definitely a lot more balanced. Um, I was actually taken back once we closed off the surveys and got the results into what the numbers actually were. And honestly speaking, if I'm gonna put an overarching kind of viewpoint on this, it's it's not as bad as people think. Companies, to the most part, have handled things very, very well. People have been protected. Yes, there's obviously going to be decisions at some points that do affect some people, but you know, businesses are looking for the larger volume in terms of being able to stabilize themselves, being able to continue, being able to weather the storm until Q4. And you know, that that's really key right now. How it's been managed again, you know, difference between COVID and now has been fundamentally very, very different. And even when we go back and look at the employee responses, you know, there's a lot more positivity coming back for how things have been managed by individual employers and employers as a whole versus you know how things have previously been handled in the past.

SPEAKER_02

Which is interesting, isn't it? Because I think that's one of the biggest shifts that we've noticed here is not how just suppliers, but also companies are being evaluated. It it's it's not just on delivery now, but it's also on flexibility and behavior under pressure, the types of questions they're asking, and the way companies are making decisions. It's all changed quite noticeably.

SPEAKER_15

A few months ago, many discussions were centered around ambition, spectacle, and growth. Now, on the other hand, they're more focused on practicality, sensitivity, and resilience. Clients are asking much more sharper questions around audience turnout, travel reliability. Um, I think clients are thinking carefully about how audiences will receive an event right now, not just whether it looks impressive, but whether it feels appropriate.

SPEAKER_02

I thought that was a very perceptive comment there, which then leads into a bigger question of what does good actually look like in an environment like this? Because as that soundbite mentioned, success right now probably doesn't look the same as it did six months ago, does it?

SPEAKER_04

Absolutely. And look, we've seen a huge uh dominating shift in the market from a candidate side of things, where you know, if you had spoken to almost any candidate prior to this uh scenario that we seem to find ourselves in, you know, growth and salary always sat at the top of the tree, and then you know, stability and so forth followed. What we're looking at now is a complete U-turn to where stability, market reputation, then salary, then growth. So people are looking for long-term. People want to feel stable, they want to feel secure. It's not about chasing that job title and that big salary. Yes, look, it's always gonna be there, and once things settle, then that will kind of creep its way back to the top. But for the time being, you know, everyone is looking at stability as one of the key factors. Because, you know, these scenarios they they almost dictate how our lives are lived, right? Um, you can feel secure in your job, and then the moment something like this happens, all of a sudden people perhaps don't feel as as secure. What if they lose their job? They still have the school fees to pay in, the rent and so forth. So it kind of brings real life back to the forefront of things. So it it's for me just a very, very interesting outlook to see how it's kind of flipped in terms of desires, wants, and needs from an employment point of view.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, I think everyone's caught between a rock and a hard place at the moment because so much of what we're seeing right now are businesses actually struggling to plan. And not just businesses, individuals, everyone, in fact, because we just can't see far enough ahead, and everyone's trying to make decisions without being able to see both far enough ahead and without really being in control of what happens next.

SPEAKER_19

We're not able to make long-term decisions, or um, we're not able to make to plan more than a month or two ahead, and we're having to do a lot of contingency planning as well. So um that's all affecting the the work cycle. Obviously, um, whatever uh goals that we had for this year, we're now revisiting again to ensure that we're still being realistic.

SPEAKER_11

We we have to be optimistic. We know it's gonna be a long summer. We are very optimistic that come September, if nothing else escalates uh any further, then the industry is gonna come back. So, yes, I think we we have to stay optimistic.

SPEAKER_17

So, right now, honestly, everything is kind of on pause. So, in terms of planning ahead for events, we're just being a lot more careful. We're not making big commitments too far in advance, and we're really just watching what's happening in the region before we make any major moves.

SPEAKER_10

Timelines, you know, I think that's that's a magic ball that none of us can look into at the moment. It's I don't know. I think we're gonna go into the summer and maybe start seeing stuff if if there's stability across the region and you know, politically, globally, then let's hope we really start getting the bookings and the inquiries and the legwork in late August, September for uh for an October start.

Confidence Becomes The Core Issue

SPEAKER_02

And that uncertainty feeds directly into how people are thinking, not just about their work, but about their jobs, their companies, and their own futures within the industry. Now, just moving on a little bit, one of the most interesting parts of the report has been around employee data. And I'll and I'll just quote some stats from your report for listeners as well. So 66.7% are still employed, 50.8% showed no change in role or salary, but at the same time, over half have experienced some form of negative impact. So, and then there's the key insight I see here, which is 62% feel uncertain about job security, and only 3.3, no surprises there, feel very secure. But I think one of the most single most important takeaways I I took from the report is that is is it's not the industry is collapsing, far from it. It's confidence, isn't it? And you know, and we and we hear that alluded to in in whatever news channel that you listen to all the time, uh, you know, about the confidence and and what a lot of the Gulf states are built on is confidence. And and we're in no different boat within the event industry here, isn't it? So is it fair to say that confidence rather than demand is the thing that's taken the biggest hit here?

SPEAKER_04

Yes, yes. I I I I do think it it's market confidence, it's people worrying for their jobs. Obviously, if you work for an event organizer, you were due to have you know a major event take place in the next two, three months that's now being pushed back to Q4 with no real light at the end of the tunnel as to will that or will that not take place, then yes, there's obviously a worry there. Um employers are doing as much as they can to keep uh employees uh calm and giving them you know all the security they need. But you know, look, event professionals are event professionals and we know how the market operates and runs. And you know, if there's no events to kind of work on, then that is an employment issue. So that that's where the confidence is. Um the worry is how long can the company go for without that revenue stream coming in?

Communication Gaps Inside Companies

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, sorry, but no, which leads me on to to something else you you you were highlighting in the report as well, which is communication, isn't it? And I think if there was anything you know slightly negative to come across in in in the report, it was just where a lot of companies perhaps are falling just a little bit short in terms of of communication and and and perhaps you know this is where some businesses are are getting it wrong. I mean, what does good communication look like in a situation like this?

SPEAKER_04

Um look, this this was the biggest takeaway for me from the whole survey was where things looked like they started to fall apart, and it was that that communication gap between senior management and the general employees across the business, where decisions were being taken and it just hasn't been communicated across uh the business, you know, at ground level, grassroots level, and that goes back to the confidence, right? Because if you've got 150, 200 staff on the floor and you know, 15 to 20 staff in senior management and senior management are having those conversations, making those decisions, and that's not trickling down in terms of a communication point of view as a strategy. What is the business doing? How are we going to navigate this across the business? Then that rumour mill within the business and across the industry begins to happen, and that that's where the confidence begins to kind of drop. So the biggest takeaway again was was just that that gulf in communication between senior management and the rest of the businesses. Um, look, it it's been unfortunate in some cases where there have been conversations, those decisions were made, and you know, huge numbers of headcount were just axed, you know, almost in a single swoop. There's been other cases where people have just been left guessing. You know, so I feel a little more transparency and open communication across businesses would answer so many questions for so many people.

SPEAKER_02

It's interesting, isn't it? I mean, that that shift in priorities, I'm I'm not I'm trying to think about what's that what is that telling us about how people are thinking right now. I mean, I I obviously job security has to be number one first and foremost, top of their list. And and and what yeah, I guess just on how companies need to respond to that, be open, be transparent, tell us, you know, w whether or not what you're still going to be able to pay us in one, two, three months' time.

SPEAKER_04

Absolutely. And again, look, you know, we all finish work, we all go home to our families, we all have our DWA bills at the end of the month, um, we all have school in fees to pay. So, you know, people will naturally worry. And, you know, giving people, you know, the peace of mind or just an honest conversation as to where things are, I think um de-escalates uh a lot of problems.

Government Role And Industry Fragmentation

SPEAKER_02

For sure. And that brings us on to a slightly bigger question, right? One that goes beyond individual businesses. What role should governments be playing in moments like this? I know it's it's a delicate question, but we'll have a little crack at it. And equally, should the events industry itself be more organized, more connected, better structured to support itself during periods of uncertainty.

SPEAKER_08

There are many ways that the government can can play a role, and we've all we've all seen they've they've rolled out the 1 billion Didham stimulus package, which is great. Um, more of that was and and that you know budget is needed. Um, once the budget is issued and and distributed, then spending will start. Once the spending will start, then it brings pump life into the industry and so on.

SPEAKER_03

The government plays an exceptionally important role in in this whole situation. Obviously, number one is to try and de-escalate the geopolitical situation as quickly as possible. Secondly, to that is what does the what does the next phase look like and what does that regeneration plan look like, and what does the re-engagement plan look like, and and and that is obviously a a huge role to try and get some stability and some confidence back in the region.

SPEAKER_15

I think I'd like to see a proper events industry ecosystem built for this region, not just scattered WhatsApp groups or occasional networking breakfasts. Right now, I think our sector is incredibly fragmented. Agencies, freelancers, suppliers, production houses, venues, and clients are all operating in silos, which works in good times but becomes a weakness during uncertainty. Things like advertising has associations and marketing has forums. You know, events, despite being a major economic driver here, still lacks a unified platform. I think it would also create a sense of community in an industry that often feels transactional. During difficult periods, information is power, but connection is stability. Right now, many companies are solving the same problems alone. We'd all be stronger solving them together.

SPEAKER_14

The UE event industry, yes, uh we are, let's say, we are not a union or we are not uh a standardized industry. It it's a sort of an open market where people come from everywhere. It it would be very difficult to sort of you know at the moment try and form like a union or a committee and then expect, you know, that uh in times like this, support from there because it's a very transient population. It's not a place where you know you're going to be staying here forever, you know. So unfortunately, uh the government does whatever it can independently, you know. It it doesn't need someone to tell them what to do, you know.

SPEAKER_05

So I don't believe it's the role for government to help subsidize our individual businesses or provide any support other than what they can do from uh you know reducing business licenses, potentially looking at how there's some sort of tax exemptions. I think the government's job is to ensure that when it's safe to do so, they have the ability, whether it's through like cash injections into like actually you know kickstarting events again and to get those moving and to include, I guess, the local supply chain as much as possible.

SPEAKER_03

I have every faith that the uh UAE government and the wider MENA region will put measures in place to ensure that the uh the tourism and the event sector will bounce back. I think there's a stat for every dollar that is um spent on on travel to the UAE, it equates to seven dollars in in revenue to the UAE government. So there is they are massively incentivized to get this resolved as soon as possible.

What A Real Recovery Needs

SPEAKER_02

So, with all that in mind, the role of the government and the need for confidence, the structure of the industry, the big question really becomes what happens next. Mark, how confident are you in that recovery timeline of Q4? And what do you think you'd need to see for us to be able to stick to that?

SPEAKER_04

I'm confident in the UAE in particular, in its bounce back ability. Um, again, you know, we speak to various businesses across the sector on a daily basis, and you know, there is still an air of positivity. Where my worry is more for the larger exhibitions, conferences, because they're so heavily reliant on international visits. And whilst we could have all the confidence in the world within our region, we equally need the rest of the world to gather that confidence together and fly back in to attend these events as well. So I believe, look, we can steam ahead and we can go to host these shows. I feel getting to the point of where we were prior to all of this will perhaps take a little bit longer. But I think we need to move in steps and you know, be able to host these events, be able to put the events on and rebuild confidence globally again in the region. You know, as a country, I feel we're so heavily dependent on international visits from tourism to business tourism. So internally, you know, we have all the facilities, we have all the confidence to go ahead and do everything, which I believe we will do, and we will do it exceptionally well. But in the flip side, we also need to win back uh the trust of the international market as well.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, and that ties into something we've been hearing consistently across the board that any recovery is likely to start locally first. You'll see smaller regional activity begin to pick up, businesses here starting to move again, events happening at a more local level, and then gradually as confidence builds, you'd expect the international market to follow. But that second part, that global confidence, that's the bit that might take a little longer, right?

SPEAKER_04

But the one thing the UAE is particularly good at is marketing itself, and marketing itself to an extent that it becomes very attractive, you know, from a business point of view to a tourism point of view. But that still takes time, you know, it's it's going up against the elements of the various news outlets around the world who seem to paint a much grimmer picture of the reality to what's actually taking place in the UAE. And you know, that that that will affect global confidence in terms of attending or you know, big businesses and brands spending money, you know, to attend these events and sponsor these events and so forth. So look, I I I feel locally we have enough to kind of really get get off the ground again and get off the ground quite quickly, a lot quicker than you know previous global scenarios that we've witnessed. But you know, I I believe we need to have a bit of a reality check as well as to it it's not going to be an overnight process.

SPEAKER_02

If you had to strip everything back, what do you think will separate the businesses that come out of this stronger from those that struggle? How they've managed it.

SPEAKER_04

Because going back to the point of the communication, how staff have been managed, how staff have been treated, how secure staff feel, you can already s begin to see it from the answers, you know, from the employees in terms of looking for stable security, looking for a company with a good reputation, looking for a company that's a people-first company. Now it's almost cliche to kind of say, you know, we're a people-first employer. But these are the scenarios that actually prove the point as to who is and who isn't. And, you know, you're not gonna go ahead and put on multiples of events per year without good people. You know, I I I feel if you've managed this well, you're gonna have a queue of potential candidates and staff, you know, knocking at the door for every available vacancy going because that's a company they want to be employed with and they see a long-term future there.

SPEAKER_02

Was there anything uh from the report, I mean, you that you were surprised about? Was there anything you were expecting and and it came back as the opposite?

SPEAKER_04

I I think it was the overall market sentiment. You know, when we put this together, and this is something you and I had discussed, we really wanted to understand market sentiment, and that that's something that's overlooked, you know, uh a lot. And overall, it just didn't feel anywhere near as bad as when you speak to individual people who have gone through different scenarios, it paints a a much worser picture depending on who you're speaking to. But when you collate all the data together and actually look at what people are saying, what is the actual market sentiment? There's an air of calmness. Companies have responded well, companies have put their employees before everything else. Um, yes, there is a an air of you know, revenue and cash flow protection, which is completely normal from any business or any sector, but overwhelmingly, you know, and all the data in the report suggests it's just in layman's terms, it's just not as bad as it sounded.

Download The Report And Closing Thanks

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, and I'm gonna go full circle now back to what we said at the beginning of the podcast. I think there's a danger in moments like this that everything gets framed in extremes. Either the sky's falling down or everything's fine, and as I said, we should all just hey carry on. But I think the reality, as always, sits somewhere in the middle. Because yes, this latest conflict has had a real impact. There are businesses under pressure, there are for sure freelancers struggling, and there are companies making difficult decisions. But this isn't a story about collapse, thankfully, it's more of a story about pause. And that matters because when confidence returns, and it will at some point, the market doesn't rebuild from zero, it moves, and often it moves quickly. Well, Mark, super, super interested talking to you on this special edition, if you like, of Event News DXB, the podcast. Um, if people want to get a copy of your report, where can they go and download it?

SPEAKER_04

So the report will be available on our website, uh EsmosRecruitment.com. It's absolutely free of charge. Again, we wanted to put this together for the industry. Um, I'm a big believer in giving back to the industry. It's great for employees to kind of really understand that that market sentiment of their own employees. It's great for the event professionals to understand where businesses have come from and what other people are feeling. So completely free of charge. It's on the homepage of our website. And um look, we we just hope it helps uh anyone who even just has a few questions and you know if they want to get in touch, we're more than happy to uh answer any questions as well. Well, Mark, brilliant. Thanks for joining me. Pleasure. Ian, thanks for having me. It's been uh absolutely wonderful.

SPEAKER_02

And before we sign off, a huge thanks to everyone who took the time to answer questions and send in their sound bites in no particular order. Thanks to Alex Kennard, Bindunair, Dan Bolton, Ian Thorley, Jimmy El Gahari. John Noonan, Maitri Someer, Mark Brakespear, Nadine Jamal, Nasrin Abdulwahed, Rudy Buchner, Ryan Narona, Safwan El Rufay, Sally Kay, Shane Manning, Snehel Fernandez, and Tom Southgate. And I hope I got everybody's name pronounced right. Apologies if I didn't. Thank you everyone. I couldn't have made the podcast without your contributions. And I hope you enjoyed this special edition of Event NewsDXP. Please do spread the word, tell your friends, your colleagues about the podcast. And if you haven't subscribed or followed, please do so wherever you get your podcasts. Until the next episode, stay safe. Event NewsDXP was brought to you by Minus45DB, the team busy transforming noisy conference, exhibition, and event spaces into slick, sound-reduced environments. Event NewsDXP is also brought to you in association with Warehouse 4, probably Dubai's best independent event venue. And Podworks, a premium branded podcast production agency, with officers in Dubai and Kuala Lumpa. Event NewsDXP was hosted by myself, Ian Carlos. The studio engineer was Manny Panamora. The executive producer was myself and Joe Morrison. And this podcast was produced by Podworks, one of the industry's leading branded podcast production agencies. And if you haven't done so already, please do click that follow or subscribe button. It really does help us reach a wider audience. Until next time, stay safe.