Auburn’s 2020s Abyss, 7 wins for Auburn unacceptable?, Year 1 Golesh wins 7 or more?

Auburn fans know the feeling: you watch a game for three quarters, you start to believe, and then something breaks late. A muffed punt. A blown coverage. A baffling three-man rush. Stack that on top of five straight losing seasons, multiple coaching changes, and massive buyouts, and the 2020s start to feel less like a slump and more like purgatory.

I walk through how Auburn got here and why the losses have been so uniquely painful, especially against Alabama and Georgia. I talk about the coaching whiplash, the moments that still sting, and the way repeated close-game collapses can infect an entire program. Then I pivot to what could actually change, not just on paper, but on Saturdays: a culture reset under new coach Alex Golesh and the belief that Auburn finally has a quarterback who can tilt outcomes in Byron Brown.

I also get real about expectations. Is seven and five a step forward or a sign you are settling? Is eight wins possible? How does the early schedule shape the entire season? I break down the “start fast” path, why Florida at Jordan-Hare looms large, why Vanderbilt cannot be treated like a breather, and how Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, and Alabama fit into the win forecast.

If you care about Auburn football, SEC football, program culture, and what actually decides close games, this one is for you. Subscribe, share it with an Auburn friend, leave a review, and shoot me straight: you buying in, or are we getting hurt again?

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Transcript

Why Auburn Feels Truly Cursed

SPEAKER_01 0:00

I came to the conclusion I think Auburn is straight up having the worst time of anyone in college football in the 2020s. And here's the case the program has obviously had five consecutive losing seasons in the midst of its worst stretch since the Harry Truman administration. You've heard me say that before. You fired three coaches and you've paid all of them eight-figure buyouts. The only winning season in the 2020s resulted in paying what was then the largest buyout in the history of a college football head coach, Gus Melzan. The job search was botched from the jump with the Kevin Steele mess. You land on Brian Harson. You staged a failed coup a year later because you don't like him against your two biggest rivals in the 2020s, Alabama and Georgia. You're 0-12 against them with some excruciating losses. And those teams have accounted for every single SEC championship in the 2020s, as well as as well as half of the national championships. But it's not just them or even the zero bowl game victories, it is a 4-26 mark against ranked foes, which is fewer ranked wins in the 2020s than the likes of Arkansas, Vandy, even Kentucky has nine ranked wins in the 2020s.

SPEAKER_00 1:15

Let's talk about it. Yes,

Welcome And Quick Housekeeping

SPEAKER_00 1:24

welcome on into the third down conversation, my good people. Please remember to like and subscribe so you can always get the latest and the greatest from the third down conversation. That first video, I found it on the next round um Twitter account. I'm not really sure who the gentleman is that is speaking, but he's not wrong.

Painful Losses And Coaching Whiplash

SPEAKER_00 1:54

As an Auburn fan, the 2020s have been rough. The roughest stretch I've been through as a fan. Vanderbilt is now better than us. Thought I'd never see that in my life. We haven't beat Georgia since 2017. We haven't beat Alabama since 2019. Just a recap, they fired Gus Mal in 19, the best coach in my lifetime that Auburn has had. They couldn't find a coach for the longest, and then they hire Brian Harson from Boise State. That first year, it looked promising. We beat Lane, Kivan, and Ole Miss at home to go to 6-2, and then we play Mississippi State at home. We're up 28-0. And then Mississippi State comes back and wins. That same game, Bo Knicks breaks his ankle. He's out for the season. And the season starts to fall apart. We get to the iron bowl of that first year under Brian Harson. And Auburn is in full control. They've got it in the bag. Bryce Young goes on an incredible drive to tie the game. The game goes to like six overtime. And Bama wins. Going into year two, so many rumors came about about a Harson. It made Auburn look bad, honestly. But that year two under Harson was terrible. You bring in Hugh Freeze. He's going to change things. He's going to make things all better. In fairness, I had faith in Hugh Freeze. Not because I felt like he was going to be able to revive himself back when he was beating Nick Saban, but more so I thought he could stabilize the program, and I knew he wanted to be at Auburn. So that alone made me believe he could do it. He could bring the program back to the place that it was. Unfortunately, I was wrong. Year one, we've got Georgia on the ropes. This is going to be the biggest win Auburn has had in years. And Brock Bowers, Georgia's amazing tight end, takes over the game. Auburn loses. We get to the anbowl of Hugh Freeze's first year, and Auburn is in control. They are in control. Next thing you know, Bama punts it and Auburn muffs the punt. And then the defense stands up. They get a sack. Bama got called for a legal four pass. It's fourth down. We in good shape. Bambo is on like the 30-something yard line. Has to get a touchdown. Auburn decides to only rush three players. Bama scores. That was easily the worst loss I've ever experienced in my Auburn fandom. I'm talking crushed. You would think my girlfriend just left me and my dog died as well. I was down. Year two under freeze. It just got worse. Auburn is winning against Oklahoma. Cast the game won at home. They're completely outplaying Oklahoma. And next thing you know, they Payton throwing throws a pick six, and we lose in the last moment. The amount of excruciating losses, horrible offense, inability to clutch up, it has been astounding, honestly. At this point, it's looking like a skill that Auburn just has, no matter who's directing the ship. And I believe this is all because of 2013. We got the kick six, we got the praying Jordan Hare. Auburn Jesus, as they call it, has left the building. I think we've been paying for it for all of the 2020s.

Hope Returns With Alex Golish

SPEAKER_00 6:31

But I think the time is coming. The time is finally now that Auburn is about to come out of purgatory. We have walked through Dante's inferno. We're about to bounce back. I believe Auburn has stumbled on the right guy. And I say stumbled because they wanted Summerall. Let's not get it confused. That's for they wanted to lead this program. But they end up with the Russian smug grind work hard type of guy in Alex Golish. Auburn needed a culture shock. I'm gonna be honest. They needed a coach that don't mind cursing a little bit. A coach that embraced the Iron Bowl. A coach that, frankly, goes after players who want to be here versus players who just want to get paid. Nothing wrong with getting paid. Get your money, your munions, get all that. But I need you to want to put that logo before you. And because we have the right culture guy, we're gonna find ways to finish these games. We're gonna find ways to close out teams. We're gonna find ways to put our foot on their neck and finish them. Because we got Alex Golish. LaRussian.

Seven Wins Acceptable Or Delusional

SPEAKER_02 8:10

I want to be clear on what on my expectations. I don't care about the six and a half overunder. You brought Byron Brown in here in Uran Deuce out of here, but knowing that there was no way he was possibly gonna say they tried to pitch him something. If you bring Byron in here, I think you gotta go win eight next year. I think the number is eight. I I I challenge anybody to show me a seven and a five season with that schedule. Well, you're not super disappointed in about one to two losses that they have on there. I I don't think a seven-win season is acceptable in my mind. I think you gotta go win eight games with your 3,000-yard quarterback and your 1,000-yard rusher at quarterback.

SPEAKER_00 8:55

Okay, so that was Mike Gittens. Um, he's um kind of an Auburn beat writer, but he was on uh jocks talking about how 7-5 isn't acceptable. Look, when people say that fans are delusional, that's what they're talking about. Auburn hasn't won seven games since 2019. There's no Auburn fan that I know of that would be disappointed in Auburn going 75. I think they're gonna win more than that, but if they win 75, I can accept that. Because we haven't done it. And you gotta start somewhere. And it is a first-year coach. He brings up Byron Brown in the 3,000 yards and a 1,000 rush, and that's that's valid. I'm not saying it's not valid at all, but some things are gonna still have to break their way. Like Byron won't be able to do it by himself. Offensive line still gotta block. People got to run the ball right, your defense gotta show up. You can accept a 7-5 season while also being disappointed in a couple of games you let slip. Like those both can be true. And then he throws in ran Deuce out of here. I get so sick and tired of hearing that. Deuce had one good game against Mercer. Against Mercer. So that means he was the next company. Like, no, he wasn't. We don't even know that. He gets off against Mercer, so we're gonna tell Bobin Brown, no thank you. We've got this guy who has one game on film, and he get he he looked okay to me, honestly. He looked kind of slow on film, that one game. We're gonna tell Bob and Brown, no, we're gonna go with this guy because he looked great against Mercer. I'm not saying Deuce won't be good. I'm not saying that at all, but if you're telling me I can bring a proven guy who knows my system with me, of course I'm gonna do that. And then I'm gonna tell Deuce compete. Period. So, a seven and five season is acceptable. It's not what you want, but it is acceptable. Now, I firmly believe they get more than seven wins. How many? Stay tuned.

SPEAKER_03 11:42

You've

Fast Start Talk And Early Tests

SPEAKER_03 11:43

got a real opportunity to start 4-0. How good could this football team be if they get that win at home against the Party Gators? It's the really big game early on in the season. Getting a night game at Jordan Hare Stadium as well was really, really big. Of course, there's gonna be a lot of buildup because John Summerall and Alex Golish, they're, you know, we'll be watching their careers together, right? Like they'll kind of be tied together because obviously Summerall was so close to taking the Auburn job. But I agree that it'll be the first real look at just how good Auburn can be. Because I could be completely wrong about this. I don't think Baylor's very good. Florida's gonna be the first real test for them. And then Vandy the next week. Like, like you mentioned, if they beat Florida, you've got a real opportunity to start Florida. You really do. And again, I could be wrong about Baylor. We're still a long way away. The schedule really lines up early on in the season for you to build some momentum. I would caution people. I was talking last week on CGS Sports about a potential trap game, and everybody looks at Mississippi State late in the year, and I would agree that sort of fits the bill of a classic trap game. People gotta remember Vanderbilt has built themselves into a very good program. Like Clark Lee is still there, still a really, really good head coach. There's no reason to believe that Auburn is a better program than Vanderbilt this year. Like that'll be an interesting one the week after Florida.

SPEAKER_00 12:52

That was Nathan King, who is a beat rider for um Auburn, uh, also on Jox, talking about the possibility of Auburn starting 4-0.

Predicting A Nine Win Auburn Season

SPEAKER_00 13:03

Here's where I am with Auburn going into this season. I'm gonna I'm gonna say this because my friends, they think I bug when it comes to Auburn. They think I am not logical when I talk about Auburn around this time of the year. And in the past, they've been correct. Even my mom has been like, you say this and you say that, and you're never right. Well, mom, friends, I'm right this time. And I'm right this time because I have facts to back up what I'm about to say. Okay. Auburn will win nine games this year. Nine. The key to winning nine games is they're gonna have to start 5-0. So that means you beat Baylor, Southern Miss, Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee. And you're going to Tennessee. Now you're asking, what makes you think they beat Florida? Well, they're playing Florida at home, at night, first thing. Second thing, Florida's quarterback is inexperienced. They're either gonna start a guy that has been in the system but hasn't played, or they're gonna start a guy that hasn't been in the system and hasn't played. I like our chances. Thirdly, we've got Byron Brown. The most important position on the field in a game of football is a quarterback. And when your quarterback is better than the other team's quarterback, you've got a a great chance. I'd say 60 to 70 percent chance of winning that game. Next, you're saying, okay, well, how do you know they're gonna beat Vanny? They've struggled with Van Dy over the years. I would say that's a fact. But we get Vany at home, and Vandy will be starting a true freshman quarterback. I like our chances. What about Tennessee on the road? That is gonna be the toughest challenge for us is Tennessee on the road. However, Tennessee quarterback situation is up in the air. We know their system just like they know our system because Josh Heipel and Alice Golish used to coach with each other. So there's gonna be some familiarity there between them. The defense that plays the best that day will win that game. Again, my quarterback is better than their quarterback. I like our chances. So I got us at 5-0 at that point. Then we have a bye, and then we go to Athens. I do believe Byram and Gunnar Stockton are similar as far as quarterbacks. I think Byram is more talented. However, I feel Gunner is more consistent. Georgia would have just played Alabama the week before they play us. Therefore, I think we're in that game. However, I think Georgia beats us. So at that point, we're 5-1. Following Georgia, we have LSU at home. Most people will pick LSU to win that game. Will it be in at 11 o'clock? I'm not sure that favors Auburn exactly, but again, Byron is better than Sam Levitt. Sam Levin has not gone through any spring, new system, new verbiage. I think we're in that game as well. The sneaky part about that game is it would be LSU's eighth straight game. With that being said, I think we beat LSU. The following week we'll go to Ole Miss. Now I believe Trinidad is better than Byron. And with that game being on the road, I probably lean Ole Miss. So losing the Ole Miss game puts us at 6-2. And at the Ole Miss, we have Arkansas, followed by Mississippi State, followed by Sanford. I think we can get those wins. A lot of people are circling the Mississippi State game as a trap game, but I think it's real possible to get those wins. So now we're at nine and two. That means we'll play Alabama in Tuscaloosa. And if I had to say right now, I give him the edge right now. Right now I would. That puts us at nine and three. However, my mind is going to change as late November gets here. So Auburn fans, don't don't don't fret, don't trip. Okay. I'm just looking at it as logically as I can. So I've got Auburn losing to Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama. That's what I think will happen. But it wouldn't surprise me if they beat Ole Miss and lose to LSU or they beat Georgia. I'm not sure exactly how it's going to go down. I'm just picking what I think will happen. But the premise of all of this is there's only one team that Auburn plays whose quarterback is definitively better than Auburn's quarterback. And that's Ole Miss. That's why I am so bullish on Auburn this year. We haven't had a quarterback like Byron Brown in years. When a guy that talented with his arm and his legs, he can change outcomes. He can do things that frankly other guys cannot do. Then you bring in a coach who knows how to build and instill a culture who is processed and detail-oriented, the way Alex Golish is, who can build relationships while also keeping it about the main thing, which is ball. That's why I am so confident that Auburn could win nine games. They

Why Byron Brown Changes Everything

SPEAKER_00 19:41

will make a bowl game. They will be in close games. Hugh Free said, We're so close. He wasn't wrong. The difference is this year they will finish those close games. Auburn has their guy. And with their guy and Byron Brown coming along with them, things are gonna change. Things will change.

Final Thoughts And Sign Off

SPEAKER_00 20:14

This has been the third down conversation. Remember to like and subscribe. Jesus loves you, and I'm out. Peace.