Markets Amid Conflict Part 1: How Global Instability Shapes Your Portfolio

How Does Global Instability impact investment Markets And Activity?

When the news cycle feels like a firehose, it’s easy to assume markets must fall. We cut through the noise and look at what actually moves portfolios: the flow of energy and materials, the integrity of supply chains, and the policy choices that shape costs, margins, and long-term competitive edges. From Russia–Ukraine to tensions in the Middle East, we examine why equities can keep climbing when the economic plumbing still works and demand remains resilient.

Our conversation zeroes in on the economic rivalry that matters most for investors: the U.S. and China. We break down tariffs, export controls, IP enforcement, and the race for AI and semiconductor leadership—factors that now sit at the core of valuation. You’ll hear how policy continuity across administrations changed the game for global manufacturing, why concentration risk in Taiwan’s chip ecosystem is a security issue as much as a market one, and what the multi-year path to onshore capacity really looks like.

We also revisit the legacy of offshoring and the realities of reshoring in an automated era. The jobs returning aren’t identical to the ones that left, but the ecosystem around new plants—construction, services, logistics, and specialized maintenance—can revive communities and diversify local economies. For investors, that translates into watching capital expenditures, utility upgrades, and the suppliers that cluster around advanced manufacturing hubs. Throughout, we share practical ways to stay grounded: prioritize companies with pricing power and multi-sourced inputs, diversify across regions and factors, and avoid trading every headline surge.

If you value clear thinking over panic, you’ll leave with a sharper framework for navigating geopolitical risk. Subscribe, share this episode with a friend who doomscrolls, and leave a review telling us which risk you’re watching most closely.

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Chapters

• 0:00 Setting The Stage
• 0:42 Defining Modern Conflict
• 2:41 Why Markets Climb Despite Wars
• 6:55 Energy, Europe, And Moral Tradeoffs
• 7:23 China Versus U.S. Economic Rivalry
• 11:29 Tariffs, IP, And AI Supremacy
• 15:34 Offshoring And The Hollowed Middle Class
• 15:55 Note: Invalid timestamp, ignore

Transcript

SPEAKER_00: 0:03

Welcome to the Four Seasons Podcast, brought to you by BH Wealth Strategies, serving Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia since 1966. Here, we guide you through the ever-changing seasons of your financial journey, offering insights to help you grow, protect, and enjoy your wealth. Ready to turn your financial dreams into reality? Dare to dream. And now, here's your host, President of BH Wealth Strategies, Jeff Bingham.

SPEAKER_01: 0:42

From headlines to portfolios, global unrest sends ripples throughout every corner of the market. In this episode, Jeff helps us break down how investors can stay grounded when the world feels really uncertain. Welcome back, everybody. Skip Moni, co-host slash producer, back in the studio with president of BH Wealth Strategies Jeff Bingham here in the Four Seasons podcast. Jeff, how you been? I've been great, Skip. How about yourself? Been doing just fine. I think this question is uh episodes pretty timely because things are uh, you know, quite unstable at the moment in in the world and a lot of different things going on. So I thought it was timely to ask the question: how does global instability impact uh investment markets and and activity we should be so concerned with?

SPEAKER_02: 1:33

Well, as we kind of uh talked about that a little off-air before we went on, you know, we were talking about there certainly are a lot of things to a lot of headline news, some noise, but some some news as well in that. And yet the the US stock market and and to some degree global markets as well, uh, you know, continue to to climb and and set new records, or or we're at near near record levels in the U.S. right now. You know, and that and and that often to and and the government's closed. I mean, a lot of things we can kind of touch upon as we go through this, uh, and as we talk about global instability and what that is. I mean, I think the first thing that I think about is maybe most a lot of people think about is war, right? You know, conflict. But conflict is not just, you know, guns and and and uh you know bombings and guns and tanks and those kind of things. I mean, it's it's it's tariffs, it's government shutdowns. I mean, there's all kinds of things to kind of look at there. And so I'll try to uh in our in our brief time together, you know, kind of touch on those things. But again, the most the most curious thing is is well, how do markets, you know, that people have and question me about when they look at these things, is that, well, how does a market continue to to climb and we continue to to see these record uh you know highs, you know, while we've got the Ukrainian-Russian war continuing to go on, you know, kind of the you know, a little bit of the the you know, the tennis match back and forth about you know, the peace talks on, peace talks off, you know, Putin gonna talk to Trump, you know, what about Zelensky? You know, that that's just back and forth on that. You know, and and interestingly, in that war, right? We're, you know, in February, I believe I'm right, there'll be four years if that war has been going on, you know. So we're, you know, what the better part, but well, well over three and a half years, you know, into that conflict. And yet, um, you know, it it it really how much how much impact has it had on us as we sit here in the United States, not just on our markets, but on our lives, right? I mean, we we we see a lot of headlines on it, we see a lot of social media commentary on it, there's a lot of fight, there's a lot of fighting between those that that want to defend Ukraine, those that want to walk away from war altogether. I mean, I mean, there's a lot, there's a lot of different factions, you know, in our country, and obviously globally as well, that go into that, yet we've continued to kind of operate without much interruption, uh, at least seeing. I think there are a lot of things that are in there, and obviously we also have had you know the conflict that is, you know, kind of is resolved or resolving, or whatever the case is going to be in the Middle East with Gaza and Israel, you know, we bombed Iran. I mean, there's all kinds of things to talk about in there. The conflict in the Middle East, we can get peace for a while and it'd be nice to see. And I think it's possible for for a bit. My opinion, because I do come at things from a more biblical perspective that we talked about before, that conflict will not end until Jesus comes back. So uh haven't really answered the question, you know, how do you how do you navigate that? I think you just have to separate the again, it's a separation of of the noise out of it, right? You know, again, because we we typically think that wars are are are bad and it's gonna cause markets to do poorly, but but war seems to be something or conflict seems to be something that's always going on out there. It's really what it does it disrupt from a market perspective, is it disruptive to economic activity in the United States and then amongst the global trading partners that we that we operate with? And or does it or does it does it spur some of the economic activity uh in the United States and throughout the you know, kind of let's say the the Western, more developed part of the world? And I think the answer is really more along the latter part of it. And you can have a conversation about the good, the bad, and the indifferent on that right there, but I think it does. Um, you know, it it the world kind of keeps on operating around these conflicts. You know, um, you know, what I think if you look in Europe where the Russian Ukrainian conflict has more impact over there. Now it can have a much larger impact on the RSA, is that the uh the the energy that that is that Western Europe depends on comes from Russia, right? They got, you know, they've got themselves into that position over there to be reliant on that. And that's you know, that's another, you know, kind of long conversations you could have about that. But that's you know, that's that's really the most one of the most impactful, the most impactful thing is that people are losing their lives over. Let me say that first, right? That there are, you know, what set five to seven thousand people on the Ukrainian, the Russian side every day that are dying, both soldiers and civilians, and that's just a tragedy in in itself, and that needs to be stopped from that standpoint. But from an economic standpoint, you know, there um it it is what does Russia have that that Western Europe that Western Europe needs, and that's energy, you know. And so there's all kinds of back and forth on that, and that's caused some trouble, certainly for for the Western Europeans, not just for for the the the cost of energy, but also kind of the if you will, kind of the what would I say right here, the the the the moral integrity perhaps of that we need the energy. We're we and we we we don't want Russia to take over Ukraine, but we need Russian oil, and so we're still buying it, whether we're buying it directly or through backdoor mechanisms to do that, you know. Then you also, you know, think about you know kind of the the conflict, if you will, that that remains front and center, I think more more importantly for us in the United States anyway, and I'm you know, I'll I'll say America first, is China, you know. I mean, again, the what we're dealing with there. China is certainly buying oil from from Russia and you know, in that in that part of it. So again, that's that that's the connective things. You can't say none of these things are connected because they all are, you know. So we're we're in a constant, you know, uh it's a very strange relationship that we need with with the Chinese, again, without going through this. But that's the conflict that we have with them, is probably more front and center to to US economic growth, i.e. the stock market is what which is what we talk about and what we invest in. Uh, and that's through tariffs and the intellectual property, the bat the the battle the to to a AI supremacy, if you will, right? And uh can the US can you know continue to be the global economic powerhouse and the you know that really the only um you know superpower, if you will, in the world. And that's and that's you know certainly something that we're watching and and we are right now, but you know, I think the Chinese, in my opinion, have a long they they've got a long game in mind, and their long game, I think, includes at some point in time you know, kind of surpassing the U.S. in uh global you know supremacy, if you will. Uh and I think we need to be very guarded about that. So I think the you know, but the tariff war between the tariff war, if you will, which is conflict, right, between the U.S. and China, that uh that that that Trump started in 2016, that Biden continued. So this shows you that this really does transcend not just from you know Republicans and Democrats. This is a U.S. more of a U.S. battle. Uh you can argue the merits of all these things, which is a different conversation, though, because the Biden administration, the Democrats, when they were in charge, they didn't take the tariffs off of China. So we see the the value of that. I think this is something that'll continue to go on. And and I think COVID again showed us that we do need to be a little more uh for those things that are essential for the U.S. And and you have a enemy's a strong word, but I don't I don't have a a a foe, perhaps, right? A challenger for for global economic uh and uh military supremacy in in China, you might not want to rely on them completely for all of our essential needs, you know, from for our for chips, uh you know, computer chips and things that were driving AI for our med medications and uh and the minerals that as we move to a more uh you know a greener energy direction with with that that we've talked about doing different conversation all together, where you're getting these things from China, and China can control those things, right? And when we're we have the pocketbook, they have the manufacturing, you know, the the many of the uh of the raw the materials you know that are necessary. So that's it's a very fine line to go through there. And those are the things that are that are that will create havoc in the markets more than than guns and you know, that than right now, anyway, you know, kind of on the ground military, you know, old-fashioned conflict of you know, guns and tanks and airplanes, right? I mean, it's serious, but but I think the the real war is an economic war that's going on. And I think that economic war is is really, you know, uh with with China and the U.S. and how that and how that plays out, and that's gonna drive the the the GDP of the United States versus the GDP of China and also the you know the cost of goods and services that we're that we're gonna deal with and thus drive the price of the stock market, our investments that we've become so so sensitive to as a you know as a country. Um you know, and I think what my opinion would be is that and there's a number of reasons when I'll say this thing, that we we have I don't necessarily think that it's been on purpose, but as things have have evolved, if you really look back to, and I think I've talked about this before, you come out of out of the Clinton administration when we when we kind of greased the the skins for China to enter into the World Trade Organization, you know, at the end of the 1990s and then they entered in in the early 2000s. I mean, we saw immediately upon that happen, as I snap my fingers there, roughly six billion manufacturing jobs left almost immediately right there, because corporate America saw a an opportunity to reduce cost, you know, and it's good. In the short run, that's a really good thing, right? Reduce costs, manufacturing prices go down. So profits go up in corporations. Okay, that's one thing. Prices go down for American citizens, but we wiped out and continue to wipe out a lot of the working, you know, kind of middle class, you know, which is I think the backbone uh of this country. And that just continued to happen. It just didn't happen all at once at the beginning, although a lot of it did, but it's continued to to happen. And so how do you, you know, how do you um, you know, resurrect, if you will, you know, the working middle class, kind of the middle of this country. Uh, and there's a lot of, you know, and and can you, right? I mean, you know, with with AI and all these things that are going on there, it's not only does it need to be done, yeah, can it be done? Don't know. I mean, right, because even if we bring a lot of manufacturing back to this country, manufacturing plants are not what they used to be. Uh, they're more um, you know, there's more automation and AI is gonna continue to change that. Although what I would say in one in one regard from that is that well, there's a lot of building and things that go around that. When these plants come in, you're gonna bring in, obviously, there's, you know, there's management, but there's there's worker, there's service, there's things, there's restaurants, there's a lot of infrastructure that has to be built out of that and and then expands out of those kind of things. So I think sometimes we talk about manufacturing, well, you know, manufacturing is never gonna be the same way it is, and it's not. But when you when you're building these plants and you have to service these plants, you have to do all these things, the work that to the to that blue-collar middle class uh and providing, you know, kind of a the muscular man a job to kind of have kind of does come back a little more. I think we I don't I don't think that gets talked about enough in my in my own humble opinion along those lines. So I don't know that really answered the question, but I think markets can work really well during global conflicts. Economic conflicts are what are going to cause the markets not to work well, you know. Um, and so you know, stay tuned to to China and Taiwan and all the kind of things where we're, you know, where we're reliant on Taiwan uh for almost all the semiconductor, you know, manufacturing. We're trying to get some back here, but it takes a long time for that that continue to happen. And we offshored that, you know, a long time ago. And we were, in my opinion, really short-sighted on that and have really been slow to respond to get it back here. We'll see if this administration or any administration in the future can do that and and kind of continue to uh to keep it, you know, because again, it's really American security, right? It's really our security and safety that is that we're that we're talking about here. It's not stock market prices, it's safety and security.

SPEAKER_01: 15:01

So um very deep subject and appreciate you helping us make sense of the chaos. Uh actually, maybe we can uh delve back in in a future episode because there's a lot to talk about.

SPEAKER_02: 15:11

Yeah, I think I I I I would like to and probably kind of clear clear up some of those things. You know, but chaos is always present in the world. Make no mistake about it. We think if this is the the most chaotic time we've ever seen. Look back at any point in time in history. You know, it's history may not repeat, but it rhymes.

SPEAKER_01: 15:30

Amen, brother. It does. Well, Jeff, again, your insights are always appreciated, and uh, we'll catch you in the next episode. Thanks, Kip. Have a great weekend.

SPEAKER_02: 15:40

As always, uh, enjoy it very much.

SPEAKER_00: 15:46

Thanks for tuning in to the Four Seasons Podcast, brought to you by BH Wealth Strategies, where your financial success is our priority. Schedule your free 20-minute consultation today by calling 423-247-1152 or by visiting bhretire.com. Take the first step toward making your financial dreams come true. Until next time, remember, every season is the right season to plan for your future. Securities and Registered Investment Advisory Services offered through Silver Oak Securities, Inc. member FINRA SIPC, BH1 Strategies and Silver Oak Securities Inc. are not affiliate.