Markets Amid Conflict Part 2: What Investors Can Control

What Should An Investor Do?

Headlines shout. Portfolios whisper. We zoom out from the daily noise to map how geopolitics, energy prices, and policy shifts actually flow through markets and into real portfolios. Jeff Bingham unpacks why 2022’s pain wasn’t just war-related, how inflation and rising rates did the heavy lifting, and where today’s pressures—from $60 oil to OPEC’s waning influence—are quietly reshaping risk and opportunity.

We dig into Saudi–US dynamics, what it means when a regional anchor needs higher oil prices, and why Saudi Arabia is borrowing and diversifying into entertainment and sports. That lens helps explain shifting supply–demand in energy and the second-order effects on inflation, commodities, and global equities. Instead of reacting to every headline, we lay out a practical approach: build a resilient core, then make small, rules-based tilts toward commodities, natural resources, or real assets when inflation runs hot, and lighten them when disinflation sets in. Along the way, Jeff breaks down gold’s standout run, the role of central bank buying, and how a right-sized allocation can hedge extreme scenarios without dominating your plan.

If you’ve wondered how to stay the course without standing still, this conversation gives you the toolkit: clear goals, disciplined rebalancing bands, tax-aware adjustments, and a calm framework for geopolitical shocks. We translate complex global stories—Russia–Ukraine, Israel–Gaza, OPEC’s reduced grip—into specific portfolio moves that keep you aligned with long-term objectives. Listen now, subscribe for future episodes, and leave a quick review to tell us where you’re tilting your portfolio next.

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Chapters

• 0:00 Welcome & Setup
• 0:43 Headlines Vs Investor Control
• 2:30 Local Anecdotes & Coach Reference
• 2:50 Defining Global Instability Beyond War
• 4:20 Russia–Ukraine, Inflation, And Markets
• 7:35 Israel–Gaza And Regional Risk
• 9:20 Saudi–US Dynamics And Oil
• 13:40 OPEC’s Waning Power And $60 Oil
• 16:20 Saudi Fiscal Pressure And Diversification

Transcript

SPEAKER_00: 0:03

Welcome to the Four Seasons Podcast, brought to you by BH Wealth Strategies, serving Northeast Tennessee and Southwest Virginia since 1966. Here, we guide you through the ever-changing seasons of your financial journey, offering insights to help you grow, protect, and enjoy your wealth. Ready to turn your financial dreams into reality? Dare to dream. And now, here's your host, President of BH Wealth Strategies, Jeff Bingham.

SPEAKER_01: 0:43

When headlines shake the markets, smart investors look beyond noise and focus on what they can control. Welcome back, everybody. Skip Monty here, back in the studio with the star of our Four Seasons podcast, president of BH Wealth Strategies, Jeff Bingham. Jeff, how's it going?

SPEAKER_02: 1:01

It's good. I don't know that I've ever been called a star. Uh you know, in a in a positive way, anyway. I mean, I might have been accused of trying to become a star at times. Sounds like an old Buck Van Hust, Coach Buck Van Hust thing. You want to be a star. You had stars in your eyes. That's what he used to say to some of us basketball players when he thought we were we were shooting too much and not playing team team ball. He would come in at halftime and tell us we had stars in our eyes. You know, your headline hunter. So yeah, I appreciate it. I feel better about the one you gave me just now than the than those memories right there. Sorry about that.

SPEAKER_01: 1:39

Well, I meant it only in a in a positive way because you are the star of the Four Seasons podcast. And uh No, I you know, so gotta call it the way it is, right?

SPEAKER_02: 1:50

No, I I appreciate that. And and for the coach Buck Van Hus reference, for those that are listening and watch the podcast for that have been in the Kingsworth Tri-Cities area, they'll they they might appreciate that. I'm sure a lot of our younger listeners, and maybe yourself included, would have no idea who I was talking about, other than obviously the Dobbins Bennett dome. It is called the Buck Van Huss Dome. So maybe there's the maybe there's your reference point. One of the, I guess really one of the more uh God he was really a revered basketball coach. At one time the winningest coach in the United States, I believe. I think that's been surpassed now. But yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 2:25

So if they don't know the reference, they should. That's right. Yeah, exactly. Truly a legend. Well, Jeff, well, in in one of our last episodes, we talked about market instability and and the global market and how that affects investors' decisions. And and we we, you know, it's just a lot to cover in that. So why don't we pick up where we left off? What should investors be thinking of or about when global instability impacts the market?

SPEAKER_02: 2:51

You sure you don't want to just go back and talk about Cochran Huss? Actually, I would, but no. No, uh no. Glad to talk about it. And, you know, I think um as we were kind of talking off air and I started thinking about what the topic was, and we were going to cover this again, is that I think, you know, again, and I may have pointed this out in the last podcast, is that when we think global instability, I think we automatically think, you know, of conflict, of, you know, war, you know, kind of bullets and bombs, if you will, uh, or at least the threat thereof. And that's certainly a large part of it. And we certainly have those, uh, we still have that going on, you know, in the in the world, uh, and we also have the threat of that going on in the world. So it's not, I'm not trying to, you know, kind of play that off as if it's not not that big a deal. But I mean, you know, the, you know, I guess we're uh is that right? We the Ukraine, uh, Russia conflict war that's going on will, I guess in February, correct me if I'm wrong, but will be uh 2022, right? So it'll be four years that that war has been as drug on. Uh, you know, and you know, since since it started, and we can kind of talk about all that, but when you think about that and you think about how the markets have done, you know, since that point in time. I mean, 2022 was a difficult year. Oil prices, inflation, various things were going up at that point in time. So that, you know, when we think of, I think when we think of global conflict, we look at that and you can point at a year like 2022, we can say, well, that's the reason why the markets, you know, both the U.S. and the global markets sold off. And that's that's a pretty typical, you know, way to think about that. And there's a lot of truth in that in 2022, uh, but the inflationary pressures were not just, didn't just come on, which is why the market sold off in, or one of the main reasons why the market sold off in 2022 would have been inflationary pressure and interest rates going up. And that would have occurred whether Russia and Ukraine had gone to war or not, whether that had that conflict had started at that point in time. It certainly had an impact, uh negative impact, or drove oil prices up, you know, almost immediately, um, because much of uh you know Western Europe and and and the world for that matter, much of the world, you know, relies on you know Russian oil and Russian natural gas. And so, you know, when that happens right there and there's a war going on, there's those those kind of prices are going to drive up, adding to the inflationary pressures, obviously, that were present uh and coming into full view in 2022. So, you know, that's kind of the typical way to kind of think about it. War. And then obviously we've had Israeli, uh Israel and Gaza that's been going on, and that um you know is kind of at least ameliorated for for for right now. Uh we'll see how that continues to kind of whether that whether that ceasefire cease, however you want to kind of phrase that, whether that can can kind of hold uh, you know, and then kind of be sorted out as we move forward. And you know, kind of the rebuilding a little a little bit uh in Gaza and what that's gonna look like. And you know, that's that's for another day and another conversation, I suppose. But um, but I think the other things that that I think that we think that where global instability takes place is that, you know, I just look at at um this week, uh, and there's a kind of date when this was, I guess it was maybe Wednesday, when the Saudi Prince was at the White House visiting with Trump and and that that meeting there with with Saudi Arabia, and that, you know, a very uh, and I was talking with a couple of people about this, it's a very interesting relationship. I mean, obviously with the Saudis, you know, and in the United States government. I mean, it's it has um been tenuous at best over times. And is it is it uh how palatable is it for Americans to watch, you know, the two countries, you know, be cozy, but is it necessary and those kind of things? But that where and I guess where I'm going with that is that the global instability that looks like it in that regard is that you know Saudi Arabia has been you know, right, wrong, or indifferent, what you think about them and their and the country is they've kind of been the glue and the and the they are the central force in the Middle East. And as Saudi kind of dictates, much you know, not exactly this, but pretty much the Middle East will will fall in line as the Saudis kind of you know kind of put their foot down, let's say, and you know, their their edicts and whatnot. So, you know, I think that is important to to have that. But but also the Saudis are you know, you watched over the last probably the last five years, maybe the last decade, uh is oil, you know, they're not the dominant, uh or at least as they were. OPEC is not as dominant, so therefore the Saudis are not as dominant in the oil space as as they once were. I mean, they drove everything, but now the United States, you know, is in production, and so there's a there's a different deal. And now oil prices are around sixty dollars a barrel. 80% of Saudi Arabia's revenue, right? Their revenue streams comes from oil, I think, and I think I'm right on that number, give or take roughly 80% of the of the country's revenue. And they have been rich beyond, you know, beyond measure for years and years. But now at$60 a barrel, if you watch over the last several years, uh, and last year in particular, the Saudis had to actually what they brought in in revenue versus what the and they've got a lot of spending projects going on because they're trying to kind of diversify away from just oil as we're all winning through this. They had to borrow money, right? They didn't bring in as much revenue. And this is not a country that has, you know, a lot of debt. I mean, they've got, I don't know, I won't be right on the number. I mean, they may have two or three hundred billion dollars worth of total debt, but they borrowed some$23 billion last year, you know, and that's in a country their size and oil revenue, that's not a, you know, their their debt ratios aren't problematic. But now you're watching them have to borrow money, uh, you know, go out to the outside world, whether through bonds or private investment, various things to bring in money. And that's a curiosity to see. And they and they promised a$600 billion to a trillion dollar, you know, project in the United States, and that's kind of what the meeting was about, uh, at least on surface right there. But the Saudis are looking for other ways. And when the Saudis, I guess my point is that that's a point of global instability. When the Saudi when Saudi Arabia, which is kind of the glue of the Middle East, I would argue, uh, you know, from the from the Muslim countries that are there, with Israel sitting in the middle of that, as they kind of dictate that's kind of how it's either going to be turmoil or kind of peace or that kind of thing. And so when they have a little bit of financial pressure and oil prices driving down, they want oil prices at about$80 a barrel. We want, right, as a country, we want them at$60 a bar, as low as we can get them. That's what, you know, and arguably, I mean, there's that may or may not be exactly true with oil producers, but you know, but I think the, you know, at least on surface in Washington, the administration, politicians as a whole, and as Americans, we want it as cheap as it can be. But when oil prices are as cheap, you know, as it gets lower and lower, it puts a lot of strain because production, you know, oil producers don't want to produce as much, but again, going back to the Saudis, they need it at a higher price. It's 80% of their, you know, the country's revenue comes from that. So that's a big slash for them. And that's also why they're diversifying going in to try to, you know, look at look look at other other revenue streams. You know, they've gotten big into entertainment and sports and various things. So, you know, I think so again, the point of all that, it didn't really tell me where we want to invest in that, but I think that's you know, those are those are points of global instability that I think are not as headline uh dominant as as bullets and bombs, but those are the kind of things where global instability and the you know the very sensitive nature of how how a global economic landscape actually works. And that's just one one point there. And I think, you know, and I use that because this week, you know, the Saudi Prince was there, you know, in the White House. You know, and again, it's it's an interesting thing to to look at as we cozy up to then too. It's only 24 years ago, and the majority of um you know of the 9-11 terrorists, where did they where did they come from? Where were they born? Where did they live? They were Saudi Arabians, right? I mean, it's a really, really delicate dance that uh that geopolitics requires from you know from all points. And it's uh, you know, I guess in some ways it's something that that it it it generally works pretty well. Uh and maybe paying, maybe not paying too much of attention to it makes us sleep a little better at night. So anyway, I'll let you kind of kind of come back in and feel on that. I hope that I hope that wasn't too long and a winding explanation of of global instability.

SPEAKER_01: 12:05

No, well, actually, I mean, there's so much instability right now, there are so many things going on. No, not at all. And as a matter of fact, from a I wanted to ask, from a investor standpoint, like somebody like me or you, what practical steps can someone take today to strengthen their portfolio against future instability?

SPEAKER_02: 12:25

I again, I think, you know, uh the the geopolitics of the world that are going on out there, if you let your portfolio be dictated too much by that and try to change with the with the winds of change and how all that moves very fluidly and rapidly, you'll you'll always be chasing that. So again, I go back to is you put together a portfolio that matches your goals and objectives, the where you are, where you want to be, and how you want to get there. How you want to get there is is really where the design of a portfolio is going to come into play. Now, that doesn't mean that you, you know, you can have, you know, if oil prices are going down and and and inflation thus generally is receding some when you see that, you know, having commodities and natural resources in your portfolio, you know, which we do use, those types of things in portfolios, may not be as attract as attractive. So you might want to lighten up that. But if you see inflationary pressures there, and you see oil prices and other precious, you know, precious metals, these rare earth metals that we keep talking about, you know, that are going to be, you know, kind of the future of you know battery-powered, you know, uh cars and other, you know, other alternative energy sources that are out there, these natural earth uh materials are are necessary. And so you can invest in those kind of things. And so when those things are, you know, scarce but in demand uh and oil prices are going up, then you might want to have a heavier dose there. You can lean a portfolio based on that. Um, you know, and but I said, you know, I was talking about natural resources a moment ago. The best probably the best performing asset class that you could have in your portfolio this year at this moment in time is probably um is is gold. You know, gold has had a phenomenal year. I don't know if it's worth somewhere between probably 40 and 50 percent on it on a year-over-year basis on an increase in gold. Um, you know, that's an interesting conversation to have. We can talk about, you know, at some point in time. Why is that? Uh and as my dad would always say, that's because there's more buyers than there are sellers of it. Uh that's why things go up, you know, or or down. There's either more buyers or sellers, or more sellers than buyers. So that's uh that's that's kind of a a long-winded answer to that question. But I think a portfolio is put together, you know, for for the long term, you modify, you tweak it, you don't try to to outsmart global geo geopolitical pressures that are out there, these crises in the world.

SPEAKER_01: 15:03

In other words, don't need jerk.

SPEAKER_02: 15:05

Don't need jerk, right? You know, you don't want to, you know, you don't always want to hear your advisor, which we all, you know, a lot of us say and you hear this all the time, is that, you know, just stay the course. And this if you stay the course, you know, that'll that it'll all work out. And there is a lot of truth in that. But staying the course doesn't mean that you are not making subtle adjustments to your portfolio based on, you know, where you know, growth versus value, as I talked about, natural resources, commodities, and those kind of things, real you can own real estate and portfolios. I mean, there's ways to make adjustments, you know, to tweak portfolios, but not make those knee-jerk reactions.

SPEAKER_01: 15:46

Very good. Well, Jeff, I can't tell you how much we appreciate your perspective on this. It's it's it's not an easy thing to do to hold hold your ground and uh stay the course, but uh great advice. And I think that applies in a lot of different things, not just uh global instability. And would love to talk about gold in a future episode. You brought that up. I think that'd be a great uh great discussion. Absolutely. We'd love to. All right, sounds good. You should do that. All right, sounds great. Until then, uh, we hope you guys have a great Thanksgiving, and uh, we'll see you in the next episode of the Four Seasons Podcast.

SPEAKER_00: 16:25

Thanks for tuning in to the Four Seasons Podcast, brought to you by BH Wealth Strategies, where your financial success is our priority. Schedule your free 20-minute consultation today by calling 423-247-1152 or by visiting bhretire.com. Take the first step toward making your financial dreams come true. Until next time, remember every season is the right season to plan for your future. Securities and registered investment advisory services offered through Silver Oak Securities, Inc. Member FINRA SIPC, BH Well Strategies and Silver Oak Securities, Inc. are not affiliate.