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Let's Talk Politics
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Let's Talk Politics
Ep 11: Riding the Orange Wave: Jack Layton’s Legacy and the NDP’s Moment
George Soule takes us behind the curtain of NDP strategy, revealing the fascinating disconnect between federal idealism and provincial pragmatism that shapes progressive politics across Canada. With rare candor, this veteran political strategist unpacks why the NDP appears more centrist and economically-focused in prairie provinces while taking different positions federally.
Having worked directly with Jack Layton during the historic 2011 Orange Wave, Soule shares never-before-heard stories about what truly drove that unprecedented breakthrough. "Jack Layton wasn't Jack Layton until after 2011," he reveals, detailing how years of grassroots organizing, Quebec outreach, and fortuitous timing created perfect conditions for electoral success. The conversation illuminates how Layton's genuine ability to connect with voters—"eating rubber chicken in church basements" and building relationships one handshake at a time—laid groundwork that eventually paid off when Liberal support collapsed.
The episode also tackles a pressing question for progressives worldwide: why are working-class voters increasingly supporting conservative candidates? Soule offers thoughtful analysis on how right-wing messaging provides simpler narratives about economic struggles, while progressive parties face the challenge of communicating how they can simultaneously support both equity issues and labor concerns. "The right just has the easier argument," Soule admits, before exploring how progressives might reclaim this narrative.
Whether you're passionate about Canadian politics, interested in progressive strategy, or simply enjoy insider political stories, this conversation provides valuable perspective on how political movements evolve, succeed, and sometimes struggle to maintain their core coalitions. Soule's election predictions for the upcoming federal contest offer a fitting conclusion to this rich exploration of Canada's political landscape.
Have questions about political strategy or progressive organizing? Reach out to George at On Step Strategies for expert guidance on government relations and public affairs.
Welcome back to another episode of let's Talk Politics. Before we dive into today's conversation, here's the latest wrap-up of news. Yesterday, the Conservative Party of Canada finally dropped their costed election platform, the last major party to do so. In his platform titled Change, pierre Poliev is promising to slash Canada's deficit by 70%, all through a mix of deep cuts and economic growth from policies that don't quite exist yet. The Liberals and Bloc both said the Conservative Party platform includes quote a lot of magic numbers. End quote Meanwhile, ndp leader Jagmeet Singh was in BC trying to hold ground, where his party is fighting to hold on to as many seats as it can. And positive news Elections Canada reported a record-breaking 7.3 million Canadians voted during advance polls.
Julia Pennella:Back with me today is George Soule, ndp strategist and principal at On Step Strategies, here to help break down the current political landscape ahead of the federal election. In this episode, we dive in to the disconnect between federal and provincial NDPs and what prairie pragmatism is. We also explore the powerful impact local representatives can have on their communities and, of course, we unpack the unforgettable 2011 Orange Wave Plus. George shares insider stories from his time working with the one and only Jack Layton, reflecting on his legacy and what made him a national icon. Quick heads up this episode was recorded on April 15th 2025. So while the news may have changed since the conversation was recorded, the thoughts and ideas still remain relevant. So let's talk politics with George Solt.
Julia Pennella:Why do you think there's a disconnect between the federal NDP and provincial NDPs? And we can take Saskatchewan, for example. Provincially, the NDPs often see it as maybe more pragmatic in the prairies, economically focused, maybe even centrists, but as a federal level, the party is often criticized for being too ideological or leaning too much into identity politics. What do you think's behind that divide? And why isn't there more alignment between the provincial and federal wings of the party? And you know, to be fair, this isn't uniquely an NDP problem or an issue. You could say that same thing about conservatives. A conservative Ontario looks very, very different than a federal conservative in Alberta, new Brunswick. You know, might even be the reason why Doug Ford hasn't endorsed Polyev. But yeah, I'm just curious if there's a disconnect and why is there no alignment between them?
George Soule:Well, for sure, I mean. So I think the first part is there's a pride in the very privatism and I think there's something to that like the kind of farming background, working hard kind of that underscores that. I think there's also, to be frank, the history in government that affects that People around it have that experience of the levers of government. Now a lot of those folks now work with the federal party, so I think that is still. I mean, I worked in government in Alberta, so we bring that all over the place. That is still, I mean, I worked in government in Alberta, so we bring that all over the place. But I think that's part of it. I think, yeah, that prairie privatism is really important and I think that's part of the dynamic and I think it's also just the way people look at things differently.
George Soule:Saskatchewan very much is still a rural province, and I say that with love, like even people who live in Regina or Saskatoon, both of which are urban cities. They still identify as kind of being from a rural place, whereas, you know, winnipeggers in Manitoba feel a bit more urban. Those provinces have roughly the same population. It's just that Manitoba really just has one major city with a polytheist to a couple of towns, but in Saskatchewan they're much more split. In Alberta I think you're going to see a shift, which is one of the reasons the NDP is doing so much better. There is like Edmonton is increasingly an urban capital and so I think Calgary even is modernizing and diversifying. So I think that province is changing.
George Soule:Anyway, I think there's that general tone of people and to your point about the other parties, like in Alberta and Saskatchewan, the conservative equivalents of their parties are way to the right, like Daniel Smith isn't even sitting down with the rest of the premiers as we all talk about Team Canada. She's the outlier. Scott Moe sometimes agrees but sometimes wants to hang out with Danielle and it's kind of hard to follow, mostly because he's hard to follow. But they're definitely more to the right. As we move to that part of the country, everything kind of shifts a little. The whole, the whole spectrum shifts. So that's part of what you see, I think. And then the opposite would be true with Toronto. I think there are 40 seats in Toronto.
George Soule:I grew up in Northern Ontario and frankly hold some resentment, kind of instinctively, to the big city. So that pulls things more to the urban kind of argument. I think our party struggles federally because the conservatives have shifted more and more to be mostly rural based and the liberals have shifted more and more to be mostly urban. We still are very much both, which makes me have to kind of straddle things in a difficult way.
George Soule:And the last thing I'll say is that the difference in the provinces is more striking with us because we are the only party where membership is combined, and that's changed in the last four years. But, like four years ago, everyone just understood that the BC Liberal Party were actually conservatives and they weren't affiliated directly. Our parties are all. If you become a member of your provincial NDP, you are a member of the federal party, and so that connection, I think, makes it a little bit more stark when we see the difference between our leaders. But I think it's equally true across the country. Doug Ford is a progressive conservative and Daniel Smith would not be in the same party in any real way, right? I?
Julia Pennella:totally agree with you and it's just so fascinating and I think it also to your point and maybe this is what you're alluding to that local element and that local representation and understanding those issues. And it's harder to do it at a federal level. And I say this as a former political staffer, as someone with a master's in public administration who's trying to write policies You're never going to understand the realities of someone in New Brunswick or St John's versus you only ever living your life in Toronto and Ottawa. So I think it's a really unique challenge when it comes to both politics and policy building. And as we talk about that local representation, the segue into my next question here is I always say people tend to vote one of three ways. You either vote for the party, the leader or your local representative and your candidate.
Julia Pennella:And some big names in the NDP have announced they're not seeking re-election Rachel Blaney and Charlie Angus, who's held his riding for two decades. And it makes me wonder do you think there's a risk of those ridings flipping Because that local representation is so strong and apparent with the NDP? And I really respect how their candidates are deeply rooted in their communities. They really serve as local leaders who've earned that trust on the ground in their communities. Again, we can point to Charlie Angus for holding that riding for so long, and that's not always the case with the Liberals or the Conservatives, where they'll parachute or plant candidates into those ridings that have no real connection to it. So I'm just curious do you think there is a risk of losing those ridings, given they're not running again?
George Soule:Well, a couple of things. I think all three of those people have their own reasons for leaving separate. I think all three of them would have held their seats or had a good shot at it, no matter if had they stayed. I think Carol, with all due respect, is getting older. She's got grandchildren. The travel back and forth is tough, so Carol Hughes decided that she wants to spend more time with her family and her grandkids, and I think that makes a lot of sense. Rachel Blaney is a similar situation. Frankly, she's got a family and wants to support things differently. I could never be an MP from BC, let alone the island. The amount of time that they spent on an airplane is nuts.
George Soule:So that happened, and charlie, frankly, has been doing this for like over 20 years, so for him, too, I think it was just time to try something new, and he's been out there on the road elbows up for a while now, so he's enjoying that new kind of life. Are those seats at risk? I think they've always been tight, all three of them. Frankly, we haven't won the city of timmins, which so charlie's riding is huge and it just got bigger actually, but uh, we haven't won the city of timmons since 2011 and so that's been a challenge for a while. And, uh, the conservatives have picked that up and charlie really saw during the pandemic. He always says let's be clear, the people of what's the people's party they weren't all angry white dudes, like he found a lot of single mom and in part for similar reasons, like just, they can't make ends meet anymore, and so anybody who says anything that sounds like how things are still going is like that's not working for me, so blow the system up, because it can't get worse. And that's a reality that a lot of people forget to remember, that some folks are really having a hard time making ends meet. So the short answer is are those seats harder to win without the names? Yes, but I think they're sort of challenging states anyway and we'll see. But I also think we've got some good candidates in those places.
George Soule:Carol hughes's writing actually disappeared is the other reason. Um, there's a chunk of it that went to sudbury and a chunk that went up into charlie's writing. Ontario ended up with one extra seat, but northern ontario got one fewer. It's kind of ridiculous if you pull up the map, like that writing of tim and james bay and whatever they've added to it anyway, but it's huge now, like it was always big and now it's massive. And those writings, while they might be fair, you know, as far as number of people, I think it just becomes a harder and harder challenge to get less and less access to their members of parliament. So I think that's unfortunate that we've lost that seat up there. As Jack rebuilt our party, the logo got much smaller and his name got much bigger and he understood that the name Jack Layton wasn't just his name anymore. That was something that he was lending to the party to build from. I think that is the strength. The name of the leader has become more and more important as time has come by.
Julia Pennella:Yes, absolutely, and I'm really glad you brought up Jack Layton. I want to go back to 2011 for a second. What do you think was behind that orange wave and the prominence of Jack Layton, like, was it timing, years of groundwork finally paying off and you know Jack Layton himself like someone who was just genuinely connected with people and had that charisma in a way that felt different than other politicians. What do you think made that moment and Jack so powerful? And can the NDP get that magic back? Because every time we talk about the NDP, like you said, it's synonymous we can't not mention Jack Layton.
George Soule:Yeah, and you know one, it's funny when we talk about 2011. I don't know when it happened, but I got old and now whenever I talk about 2011, it's like back in the old days, but I was really lucky. When I think back, I can't believe that I only really worked for Jack for like two and a half years. It just it boggles my mind. That felt like a massive part of my career. Um, and in some ways I have a career because I did that. But to answer your question, yes, all of the above plus luck, and I think really that is. I think that that their team, when Jack first became leader our party, was in a pretty rough spot and they fought for incremental increases, so, really targeted, each election had to grow a little bit, a little bit, a little bit, and that was really the goal. And you know quietly in back rooms, like if we could have gotten 44, 45 seats, that was sort of the target that we would have been okay with in 2011. But when we first started telling people that and trying to lean out a target that we could grow at all, we got laughed at Like I think it's important to remember that because I think the story, these things change over time as they kind of become legends. But, like when Jack decided to not support the budget, the entire press gallery said that it was a dumb idea. And everybody that I talked to and I talked to everybody in the Ottawa bubble all thought it was a dumb idea. And everybody that I talked to and I talked to everybody in the Ottawa bubble all thought it was a terrible idea. They thought we were going to lose seats. They were sure we were going to lose seats. And when people ask me what's the worst election campaign I ever worked in? It's the first two weeks of the 2011 campaign. Like it was rough. Jack was tired, he didn't have the energy. Our crowd sizes were small. Every article was about how we were losing seats. Michael Ignatyev which now seems laughable but at the time was catching fire and having big crowds and I didn't get it watching TV. But like, crowds were massive and he was doing his rise up thing and people were loving it, but then his spark started to dim and people started looking around and I think that's one of the things that the NDP federally, as third place, kind of has to do is just be solid enough that when people look around. We're there and I believe that in part because that's what happened in 2011,. Right, while they're doing that incremental growth.
George Soule:Jack also was somebody from Quebec. Now, yes, he was from a fairly wealthy suburb of Montreal Suburb is even a stretch, but like an Anglophone community, but he's from Quebec for real. Ironically, tom Mulcair is from Ottawa, anyway. So he had that and we had gotten Tom elected in Montreal, had that kind of foothold. Jack had often gone to Quebec and talked about things. He spent a lot of time eating rubber chicken in church basements, like.
George Soule:He just spent a lot of that work, one by one, especially even like those people that were names on ballots for us that ends up being. Many of them became members of parliament. They all had their story about a time. They met Jack in a small pub somewhere or they heard him speak somewhere and he stuck around after, like Jack. Jack was a real extrovert and he genuinely got energy off people. So he did that work on the ground and that kind of was true across the country, like everywhere he went. You know, I remember being in a youth event and Jack and Olivia conspired against their staff so that Jack could stick around and ended up on stage right, like I didn't work for the party yet, I just knew people did and I was hanging out with them and Olivia came by and kind of giggled at them and then they said, what did Jack not leave? And then she pointed to the stage and Jack was literally on stage with a mic in his hand. So those kinds of relationships meant that when Michael and Gnash just started to shift, people looked around and were like you know at.
George Soule:And then because of that Quebec build and as the guy whose job it was to sell the momentum that was happening in Quebec to the rest of the country, people didn't buy it for a while. It took days and they kept telling me like oh, it's an outlier poll, it's like five in a row aren't outliers. That's how this works. And then once I could sell that momentum kind of to my point earlier about people voting liberal in order to stop the Conservatives we saw, especially in Toronto, that all of a sudden there was this permission structure for these people who had been kind of like left of the liberals their whole lives but had also always voted liberal to vote NDP. They said, oh wait, jackson won a bunch of seats in Quebec. That means we might win the election. I can vote NDP now and in that kind of wave when they talk about the orange wave, that's really what it was when, across the country, these people just had a permission structure to vote for us. And then, to be fair, you also had a bunch of liberals probably, who were like, well, now Mike Zolachow is going down in the polls, I'm going to vote for Jack because he might beat Harper. So the answer is all of the above right.
George Soule:There was a genuine strategy about building. There was attention to across the country. There was thinking about what works in Toronto doesn't necessarily work somewhere else, so how can I work everywhere? Jack had that about him. He was an urban guy but could also sit down and have a beer with you. I mean, as he used to joke, he would do well in the polls for both take care of your kid and have a beer, and hopefully in that order, not the other one. I think it was charisma, it was who the guy was, it was familiarity Like. Also, jack ran an 04, 06, 08, right, often got mocked.
George Soule:People talk about him as a used car salesman like Jack Layton. People say, hey, can we find another Jack Layton? Well, jack Layton wasn't Jack Layton until after 2011,. Right, and then really that solidified, frankly, when he passed away. So I think that the man, the myth, the legend. I love Jack. I don't want to be clear about that, that's true, not every day was all sunshine and roses, but working with him was inspiring and he did have an ability to connect with people that is rarely matched. So I think that was part of it.
George Soule:The strategy and then, frankly, the liberal kind of collapse. All had to come together at the right time. I worked with Rachel Notley for her last year in government, actually the last six months of her time in opposition too. But it's just about the NDP being there when people decide there's no other option that they like and it would just be good enough. Right, and that's part of even the question.
George Soule:And some people say, why is the NDP just full? And I'm not saying this is what you said, like I'm not. The liberals do the thing Like. Frankly, out West, like Manitoba, saskatchewan, alberta and British Columbia, it's the NDP versus the right, it's not the liberals. The liberals are the ones that collapse and it's the NDP that are the official opposition.
George Soule:And, to be fair to Rachel and Ali, I think that's even more than the win, and something that we weren't able to hold federally, but Alberta has held is they are the alternative. They are one of the two major parties, and if you had told someone in 2014 that for the next 11 years, the right, their whole job would be how do we keep beating the NDP? And otherwise the NDP is going to beat us you would have been laughed out of the room and they'd be able to do that. So I think it's about being strong and being there, and I think that's why we just have to keep plugging away, because it's not going to happen. None of these things do you see coming years away. They come in weeks.
Julia Pennella:Yeah, and politics moves so fast. I mean we could say from two weeks ago till now is completely different conversations, and even two weeks up until E-Day on April 28th. And one of my last questions here is we're talking about the movement and the magic of Jack Layton. The NDP have traditionally been the party of Labour and fought for working class people. Why do you think they are losing a lot of their votes to the Conservatives when it comes to it? I think only and correct me if I'm wrong only one union has come out to endorse Jagmeet the steelworkers. But I'm curious why you think there's that disconnect and that loss of votes to more the Conservatives. But I'm curious why you think there's that disconnect and that loss of votes to more the conservatives, even less so the liberals.
George Soule:Well, the steelworkers came out, CUPE came out. So CUPE is the largest public sector union. Some of the other public sector unions don't do anything officially but we've kind of seen them around. Frankly, we've had some light UNL locals. Now, actually, at some of the recent events it is kind of split. Ufcw folks are around all the time doing great work on our campaign. So one thing I'll say is, like for a number of years now, like for decades, the union membership has voted largely the same as non-union membership. It just has. I think we might see a shift in that, but the leadership that they've elected still have been strongly progressive.
George Soule:One thing full credit. Doug Ford made this a goal and worked hard at it. And I worked for united steel workers for a little while and negotiated and lobbied the provincial government, ontario, and they took it seriously, like they sat down with me and I mean it was funny. The chief of staff was someone who used to work for the conservatives. Like he knew where I came from. He knows that I'm not just a new democrat, like I'm a hack, um. And and the steel workers are they like a private sector union that is openly partisan all the time, and so they worked at it and so credit where credit's due In government he's delivered in a lot of ways. I would argue strongly that Pierre Polyev has not and will not and would not.
George Soule:I think also it just goes back to the people just trying to figure out how to make ends meet Right Like it's just. It's just tough for people to plug in. Make ends meet right Like it's just. It's just tough for people to plug in. So it's easy for hardworking people to hear an answer from someone who just says everything's broken and the system's broken and the system is rigged against you. So come with me and we'll build something new.
George Soule:Now it doesn't matter if those people's track records are all with the rich. People are looking for alternatives. But that said, I think a lot of folks are coming back because they're seeing the importance of their union. They're seeing the importance as they lose jobs or realizing the union does more than just kind of sit in a back corner shuffling paper and not doing their job. They see the value in that and I think, as that happens, I think there is a place for as long as NDP continues to do the work and continues to show up. You know, it meets the only leader that's ever stood in the picket line, that kind of thing, Like kind of thing. Like I think we keep doing that work.
Julia Pennella:I think you'll see that shift backwards again, but I think Doug Ford had a big, big, big reason to deal with that shift that we kind of perceive everywhere Interesting. And yeah, it's April 15th today. Some news just broke Worries with the Honda plant shutting down and yeah, there's a lot of elements when it comes to the working class and blue collar skilled jobs, and the thing that I don't understand is how people don't see through Polly Ev's I'm going to say it cosplay as a blue collar worker, like boots, not suits, come on.
George Soule:Yeah, he's never a dirty to bear boots in his life, but I think that's true. That's part of it, I mean. And then the flip side is true with us too. Right, it's funny.
George Soule:When I worked in Saskatchewan, the critic for finance was also the environment critic. She's on the left wing of the party, a huge environmentalist. But she said why did we get stuck with the environment? Like conservation, the conservators should have had it, but we got it Because it challenges that. Right, people think, because we want to make sure we have clean air and clean water, that we also don't want to protect your job. And that fight is always there and my belief you know that wasn't an accident that our independence critic and our environment critic were the same person, because the whole point was you can build economy and protect the environment together, and I think that is what continues to be the challenge for us. Right, like, just because I happen to believe in equality and equity and women's rights and gay rights and down the list Doesn't mean I also don't want to throw my ass off to protect the job of the GM workers in Oshawa, where I just was. But sometimes it can be perceived in the news and other places that the priority is that equity, and then that somehow it's a pie right. So because I believe these things, I don't have room to also believe in labor, and so I think that's a struggle, that's frankly a struggle for our party. And because I think you can do both, I believe both. I'm a middle-aged white guy and I believe I can believe all those things, even if I don't necessarily have a rooted experience in any of those things that I believe in. I have had blue-collar jobs, but admittedly they were a while ago, and so I think trying to convince folks that you can believe in all those things and help all those people at once is a real challenge for progressive parties. I think it's one of the reasons around the world you see the right winning, because the right just comes out and says straight up like kill wokeism, because somehow you know's the problem. And you see those cartoons right of, like the rich guy has a pile of cookies and then there's the poor guy with one cookie and an immigrant and the rich guy says watch out, that guy wants to steal your cookie. But that's the argument, right? That's this whole thing, this whole anti-wokeism thing is that's the argument. Somehow your job is struggling because we now have and more, a more, not actually, but a more equal or less unequal playing field has somehow made it harder for you to get a job, and I think that argument is easy.
George Soule:One thing I've always said is that I think the conservatives, the right wing, has the best slogan, the best first answer to everything you can spend your money better than government can. That sounds true even to me. I know it's not and it doesn't make any sense. Or like pull yourself up by your bootstraps Like sure, anybody can, but not everybody can, and so we need to find that help right. Or like no, I don't see color. Well, first of all bullshit, first of all baloney.
George Soule:But that argument just sounds right, right, like like I'm not racist.
George Soule:I mean, first of all, all of us are a little bit why you know like I'm not racist.
George Soule:So why? Why am I being attacked? Right, and I think that I think it's a genuine challenge that I think a lot of people are facing now is kind of feeling like they've been made out to be the bad guy, when maybe we all need to do better job of communicating that. But again, the right just has the easier argument. The right gets to say what's happened over the last 20 years has made your life harder and we gotta turn it all upside down and your life's gonna get better again. And two things one, that's not true, and two, your life wasn't that great 20 years ago either. Probably right like, and so we just need to. I think somehow we need to get better. We progressives, centrists, whatever need to get better at having those one liners right like. We're stronger together. Sounds cheesy, but it but it's true, and so things like that, I think, are the key to what's next, and I spent my career trying to figure out how to do that and I've had some success sometimes and less others, so I guess we'll see where it goes.
Julia Pennella:That was a beautiful way to end it. We need that unification. I can't stress this enough in these conversations what we're seeing in the US of removing DEI and women's rights, and it's scary and I don't want that here. We are unfortunately seeing that in different aspects, I think within our institutions different pieces on social media. So, yeah, I think it's that communication piece because it's not an immigrant's fault. I'm a child of immigrants. We worked hard, we put our heads down and worked hard and built up for ourselves. And I also wonder what element of this is the, you know, the capitalist mousetrap or mouse race we're in of 20 years ago I didn't have an iPhone, but I need to keep up. I need to keep spending and buying these useless things that I don't need All that to say. What are your election predictions? This is kind of a last question here. Is it minority majority wildcard? Yeah, what are your thoughts?
George Soule:I believe we will see a Prime Minister, mark Carney. I believe pretty strongly that actually, my hope would be a minority, with the NDB holding the balance power. I do think that's still possible. I genuinely believe that two weeks is a long time in a campaign, even in a campaign that is overrun by tariffs and overrun by us looking south of the border right, the biggest star in this campaign is Donald Trump, so I think that has affected everything, but I still think two weeks, even with all those conditions, is time for something to happen.
George Soule:I think that Pierre Polyev is digging himself deeper and deeper every day, and I think that Mark Carney is slowly getting better at dealing with the media.
George Soule:So I think that those things say that he's going to stay in the lead, and my hope is that through that, unless people get more comfortable with a liberal government, that folks who usually vote for the NDP will come back and vote for us again, and I think that we'll look at a caucus that's roughly the same size as the one we have, and I think that's a realistic prediction. It might sound a little bit outlandish for some folks, but I will say that I will be surprised if we don't get party status. That will shock me, no matter how much it's being predicted Now. I think that's where the error is. I think people are reading the polls Again. The polls are wrong. People are reading the polls wrong to suggest that we're going to get fewer than 12 seats. I believe strongly that that's not true, and I believe strongly that we'll have a Prime Minister McCartney, and so how the middle ground shakes out we'll have to see.
Julia Pennella:That was an amazing conversation. I will have to have you back after and we can maybe do a debrief on election data, but this was a really fruitful and insightful conversation. I really appreciate you bringing some light to what's going on with the NDP and the political landscape we've been experiencing over the last few years. So thank you so much. Any other closing thoughts, george?
George Soule:I don't think so. I think I've spoken more than enough already, but thank you so much for the invite. I really appreciate it.
Julia Pennella:And that's a wrap of my conversation with George Soule, NDP strategist. I want to thank him so much for the great conversation and please be sure to reach out to him at On Step Strategies for any of your government relations, public affairs or communication needs. Thanks so much for listening. Catch you on the next episode. I'm your host, Julia Piniella, and that was let's Talk Politics.