Why Is There A War In The Ukraine?

In this episode, I break down the long, complicated history behind the war in Ukraine. From the country’s Soviet roots, the Holodomor famine, and Chernobyl, to its fight for independence and the tug-of-war over Crimea—there’s a lot more to this story than what’s on the news.

I touch on key events like the Orange Revolution, Euromaidan, the rise of Zelensky, the role of Russia, and how things escalated into a full-blown war. We’ll also get into the Minsk agreements, MH17, the church split, and why Donetsk and Luhansk matter.

If you’ve ever wondered how we got here, this episode connects the dots in a clear, thought-provoking way. Tune in for a perspective you won’t hear anywhere else.

Transcript

Welcome to the Perspicacious Perspective.

This episode will tell you everything you need to know about the war in Ukraine.

I’ll give you a detailed timeline of the key events that led to the war in Ukraine, which starts in 1922, when Ukraine became part of the Soviet Union as one of its founding republics. 

Did Ukraine ever get independence?

After the Russian Revolution (1917) and the collapse of the Russian Empire, Ukraine briefly gained independence.

From 1917 to 1921, multiple factions—Bolsheviks, Ukrainian nationalists, White Russians, and foreign powers—fought for control of Ukraine in the Ukrainian War of Independence.

The Red Army (Bolsheviks) ultimately defeated Ukrainian forces and established Soviet control.

When did Ukraine become a member of the Soviet Union?

On December 30, 1922, Ukraine officially became a founding member of the Soviet Union alongside Russia, Belarus, and the Transcaucasian Federation.

Ukraine was forced into Soviet rule under Vladimir Lenin, despite resistance from nationalists.

The Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (Ukrainian SSR) was established as a Soviet-controlled state.

What was the impact:

Ukraine was absorbed into the Soviet system, losing its independence.

Forced collectivization – The Soviet Union later imposed brutal agricultural policies, leading to the Holodomor famine (1932-1933), killing millions.

Ukrainian culture and language were suppressed under Soviet rule.

What was the Holodomor?

The Holodomor was a man-made famine in Soviet Ukraine that killed millions of Ukrainians in 1932–1933. It was orchestrated under Joseph Stalin’s policies and is widely considered an act of genocide against the Ukrainian people.

So what Happened?

In (1929-1932) Stalin imposed collectivization, seizing privately owned farms and forcing peasants into state-run collective farms.

Ukrainian farmers resisted, so the Soviet government confiscated grain, livestock, and food supplies.

In (1932-1933) the Soviet Union raised grain quotas to impossible levels, leaving Ukrainians with no food.

Borders were sealed, preventing Ukrainians from escaping or getting help.

Soviet agents searched homes and took any hidden food.

Starvation set in, leading to mass deaths, cannibalism, and complete societal collapse in rural Ukraine.

Estimates of deaths range from 3.5 to 7 million people who died.

The Soviet government denied the famine, and Western journalists downplayed the crisis.

Only decades later did Ukraine and many nations officially recognize Holodomor as genocide.

Why Did Stalin Do This?

He did it to crush Ukrainian nationalism and resistance.

To enforce Soviet control over Ukraine’s grain-rich lands.

And To punish peasants for resisting collectivization.

When did Crimea transfer to Ukraine?

In 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (or Ukrainian SSR).

So why did Khrushchev Transfer Crimea?

o   The transfer was officially framed as a gesture of goodwill to celebrate the 300th anniversary of Ukraine’s unification with Russia (since the 1654 Treaty of Pereyaslav).

o   Crimea was geographically closer to Ukraine than Russia.

o   The region depended on Ukraine for water, electricity, and infrastructure.

o   Transferring Crimea made governance and development easier.

o   Khrushchev had deep connections to Ukraine, having served as its Communist Party head.

o   He likely saw the move as a way to strengthen his political standing within the USSR.

Was Crimea Russian or Ukrainian Before?

Historically, Crimea was home to the Crimean Tatars, who were forcibly deported by Stalin in 1944.

Russia annexed Crimea from the Ottoman Empire in 1783.

Crimea was part of Russia until the 1954 transfer to Ukraine.

At the time, the transfer didn’t seem controversial because both Ukraine and Russia were part of the Soviet Union.

However, after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Crimea became part of independent Ukraine.

This later fueled Russian claims over Crimea, leading to its annexation by Russia in 2014.

What was the Chernobyl disaster?

The Chernobyl disaster occurred on April 26, 1986, at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in Pripyat, Soviet Ukraine. It is considered the worst nuclear disaster in history, classified as a Level 7 event on the International Nuclear Event Scale.

What Happened?

On (April 26, 1986, at 23 past 1 in the morning there was a Reactor Explosion.

During a late-night safety test at Reactor No. 4, operators shut off crucial safety systems to simulate a power outage.

A design flaw in the RBMK reactor and improper handling caused an uncontrolled reaction.

This led to a massive explosion, blowing off the reactor’s roof and releasing radioactive material.

Firefighters and plant workers responded immediately but were not told about the radiation.

Many first responders suffered acute radiation sickness and died within weeks.

Soviet authorities delayed evacuations, keeping locals in the dark about the severity of the disaster.

Radiation Spread & Evacuations

Pripyat (which had a population of 50,000 at the time) was evacuated 36 hours later.

The radioactive cloud spread across Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, and even Europe.

The Soviet Union created a 30-kilometre exclusion zone, which remains largely uninhabitable today.

31 people died within weeks from acute radiation sickness.

Thousands of people developed thyroid cancer and other illnesses due to radiation exposure.

The radiation made large areas uninhabitable for centuries.

The disaster exposed Soviet secrecy and incompetence, fueling public distrust and probably contributed to the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.

The Chernobyl Exclusion Zone remains a heavily contaminated area by the way.

In 2016, a $1.7 billion steel sarcophagus was placed over Reactor 4 to prevent further radiation leaks.

The site attracts tourists, scientists, and wildlife, with some animals thriving due to human absence.

When did the Ukraine Declare independence from the Soviet Union?

On August 24, 1991, the Ukraine’s parliament declared independence from the Soviet Union, marking the beginning of Ukraine as a sovereign nation. 

Why Did the Ukraine Declare Independence?

o   By 1991, the Soviet Union was crumbling due to economic decline, political unrest, and nationalist movements.

o   Other Soviet republics, including Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, had already declared independence.

o   The Soviet leader introduced reforms but they failed to stop the Soviet Union’s collapse.

o   A failed coup in Moscow on August 19th to the 21st, in 1991) by hardline communists against Gorbachev further weakened Soviet control.

o   And The Ukrainians increasingly demanded self-rule after years of Soviet oppression .

The Ukrainian Parliament passed the Act of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine.

The act stated that Ukraine would no longer be part of the Soviet Union and would be an independent, democratic state.

Ukrainian leaders scheduled a referendum for December 1, 1991, to confirm independence.

Over 90% of Ukrainians voted in favor of independence.

Every region, including Russian-speaking areas like Donetsk and Crimea, supported independence.

Following Ukraine’s vote, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine dissolved the Soviet Union on the 26th of December 1991.

Ukraine’s departure was the final blow to the Soviet Union.

 Ukraine emerged as Europe’s second-largest country.

 They inherited thousands of Soviet nuclear weapons but later ended up giving them up in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum in exchange for security assurances.

What was the Budapest Memorandum in 1994?

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances was an agreement signed on December 5, 1994, in which Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

Why Was the Budapest Memorandum Signed?

o   When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine became the third-largest nuclear power in the world, inheriting:

§  1,900 nuclear warheads

§  176 intercontinental ballistic missiles

§  And 45 strategic bombers

o   Ukraine lacked control over launch codes (which remained in Moscow at the time), but it still had physical possession of the weapons.

o   The U.S. and Russia pushed Ukraine to disarm, arguing that nuclear weapons were too costly to maintain and posed a global risk.

o   The West promised security guarantees if Ukraine surrendered its nukes.

o   The Ukraine wanted to build stronger ties with the West, including potential EU and NATO membership.

So the Ukraine agreed to:

 Transfer all nuclear weapons to Russia for dismantling.

 Join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear state.

In return, Russia, the U.S., and the U.K. pledged to:

 Respect Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and existing borders.

 Refrain from using force or economic pressure against Ukraine.

 And Avoid using nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

So How then Did Russia Violate the Agreement?

In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, violating Ukraine’s sovereignty.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine completely disregarded the Budapest Memorandum.

The U.S. and U.K. did not militarily intervene, arguing that the memorandum was not a legally binding treaty, only a political assurance.

If Ukraine had kept its nukes, Russia might have never actually invaded.

 Many Ukrainians felt betrayed by the West’s failure to enforce the agreement.

Many argue that Ukraine would have deterred Russian aggression if it had kept its nuclear arsenal. Others counter that maintaining nukes would have been costly, dangerous, and politically challenging.

What was the Orange Revolution?

The Orange Revolution was a series of mass protests in Ukraine from November 2004 to January 2005, sparked by widespread election fraud in the presidential election. It led to a peaceful overturn of the fraudulent results and marked a major step in Ukraine’s move toward democracy and independence from Russian influence.

What Led to the Orange Revolution?

1.     In 2004, there was a Presidential Election. –

2.     The Russia Candidates were 

o   Viktor Yushchenko who was a Pro-West, Reformist who

§  Supported closer ties with the EU and NATO.

§  And Wanted to fight corruption and Russian influence.

o   Viktor Yanukovych was Pro-Russia, Backed by Putin

§  He Favored stronger ties with Russia.

§  And Was the choice of Ukraine’s corrupt ruling elites.

o   The runoff election on Nov. 21, 2004 was rigged in favor of Yanukovych.

o   Reports of vote rigging, intimidation, and ballot-stuffing flooded in.

o   The government-controlled media falsely declared Yanukovych the winner.

o   Millions of Ukrainians took to the streets in Kyiv and across Ukraine, wearing orange (which was Yushchenko’s campaign color) to demand a fair election.

o   Protesters occupied Kyiv’s Independence Square for weeks in freezing temperatures.

o   Yushchenko had actually been poisoned, allegedly by Russian operatives, but somehow survived with severe facial disfigurement.

How Did the Orange Revolution End?

The Supreme Court Ordered a New Election – On Dec. 3, 2004, Ukraine’s Supreme Court ruled the election fraudulent and ordered a revote.

 In the fair re-election, on Dec. 26, 2004, Yushchenko defeated Yanukovych with 52% of the vote.

 On Jan. 23, 2005, Yushchenko was sworn in as Ukraine’s new president, marking a victory for democracy and the people’s will.

Ukraine moved closer to Europe and NATO, which angered Russia.

 Freedom of Speech & Political Activism Grew – The revolution energized civil society and independent media.

 Putin saw the revolution as a Western-backed plot to pull the Ukraine away from Russian influence.

Did It Solve Ukraine’s Problems?

Yushchenko’s Presidency Was hugely Disappointing – His government was divided and ineffective, and corruption remained.

 Yanukovych however, Made a Comeback in 2010 – He later won the presidency, setting the stage for more Russian influence.

 Yanukovych ended up betraying Ukraine’s pro-European path and this Led to the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution.

What did he do wrong?

In November 2013 – Yanukovych Suspended the EU Trade Deal under Russian pressure, which sparked Protest which started the Euromaidan Revolution.

The Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych abruptly suspended a long-negotiated trade agreement with the European Union (EU) and instead sought closer ties with Russia. This decision outraged pro-European Ukrainians, triggering mass protests known as Euromaidan, which ultimately led to Yanukovych’s downfall.

What Led to the Protests?

o   For years, Ukraine had been negotiating a trade deal with the European Union, called the EU Association Agreement.

o   This deal would have deepened Ukraine’s economic and political ties with Europe.

o   Many Ukrainians saw it as a path toward EU membership and a break from Russian influence.

o   Russian President Vladimir Putin strongly opposed the EU deal because it would weaken Russia’s control over Ukraine.

o   Russia threatened the Ukraine with trade restrictions and offered a $15 billion loan and cheaper gas if Ukraine abandoned the EU deal.

o   Under pressure, Yanukovych gave in to Putin and announced on November 21, 2013, that Ukraine would suspend the EU agreement.

o   Pro-European Ukrainians saw Yanukovych’s decision as a betrayal of Ukraine’s future.

o   Thousands of students and activists gathered in Kyiv’s Independence Square demanding Yanukovych sign the EU deal.

o   The protests were peaceful at first but escalated after the police violently attacked demonstrators.

How Did Euromaidan Escalate?

In December 2013 – Protests Grew into a Revolution

Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians joined the protests.

Kyiv’s Maidan Square became the epicenter of the movement, with tents, barricades, and speeches calling for Yanukovych to resign.

Protesters demanded democracy, an end to corruption, and closer EU ties.

In January–February 2014 

The government passed anti-protest laws, sparking clashes between police and protesters.

Over 100 protesters were killed by snipers and riot police in Kyiv.

Facing massive public pressure, Yanukovych fled Ukraine and was removed from power by Parliament. He first traveled to Kharkiv, a city in eastern Ukraine, and then eventually escaped to Russia. He was granted asylum in Russia, where he had remained

A new pro-European government was formed.

The new government signed the EU deal and sought NATO membership.

How did Russia respond?

 Russia retaliated by invading Crimea in March 2014. Putin annexed Crimea following a controversial and internationally disputed referendum. The referendum was held on March 16, 2014, after Russian military forces had already taken control of the region. Over 90% of voters in Crimea supported joining Russia, but the vote was widely criticized for being conducted under duress and without international oversight.

The annexation of Crimea was condemned by Ukraine and most of the international community, including the United States and the European Union, who regarded it as illegal under international law. 

Who in Ukraine declared independence?

In April 2014, following Russia's annexation of Crimea, pro-Russian separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine declared independence and proclaimed the establishment of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic. This occurred amidst growing unrest in the region, with many ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in the area expressing dissatisfaction with the new Ukrainian government that had come to power after Yanukovych's ousting.

The separatist movements in Donetsk and Luhansk were heavily supported by Russia, which provided military, logistical, and financial backing. These declarations of independence were not recognized by Ukraine or the international community. The Ukrainian government, in response, launched an "anti-terrorist operation" to regain control of the areas and suppress the separatist movements, leading to more intense fighting.

The conflict escalated into a full-scale war between Ukrainian forces and the separatists, resulting in significant loss of life, displacement of civilians, and the involvement of Russian military forces. The situation has since developed into a protracted conflict, with various ceasefire agreements being attempted but ultimately failing to bring lasting peace. The conflict in Donbas continues to be a key point of tension between Russia and Ukraine.

What happened in July 2014?

In July 2014 – Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over Donbas, killing 298 people . It was blamed on Russian-backed separatists.

·       It was shot down while flying over the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board, including 283 passengers and 15 crew members. The flight was en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur when it was struck by a surface-to-air missile.

·       The missile that downed the plane is believed to have been launched from territory controlled by pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, specifically from an area near the town of Torez in the Donetsk region. An investigation by the Joint Investigation Team, which included experts from countries such as the Netherlands, Australia, and Malaysia, concluded that the missile launcher used to bring down the plane was a Russian-made Buk missile system, and it was brought into Ukraine from Russia.

·       The Joint Investigation Team's findings pointed to Russian-backed separatists operating in the area, but the Russian government denied any involvement, claiming that the missile system could have been obtained from Ukrainian forces or elsewhere. The incident significantly increased international pressure on Russia, and many Western countries blamed Moscow for its role in supplying the separatists with weapons and support.

·       The downing of the MH17 airline led to widespread outrage and condemnation. It also triggered legal actions, including trials in the Netherlands where individuals believed to be responsible for the downing of the aircraft were put on trial for murder and war crimes. 

What was the Minsk I Agreement?

In September 2014, the Minsk I Agreement was signed as an attempt to end the escalating conflict in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists. The agreement was negotiated and signed in Minsk - Belarus’s capital city, with the involvement of Ukraine, Russia, and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe as well as representatives from the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

The key provisions of the Minsk I Agreement included:

1.     A ceasefire: Both sides were supposed to stop fighting and pull back heavy weaponry.

2.     An Exchange of prisoners held by both sides.

3.     Humanitarian aid to those affected by the conflict.

4.     A Decentralization of power: Ukraine agreed to offer more autonomy to the separatist regions.

5.     And a Restoration of Ukrainian control: The agreement stipulated that Ukraine would regain control of its borders, but only after the regions held elections under Ukrainian law.

The Minsk I Agreement however failed to bring lasting peace for several reasons:

·       Both sides repeatedly violated the ceasefire. Fighting continued in the Donbas region despite the agreement, with heavy shelling and clashes between Ukrainian forces and separatists.

·       There was little trust between them, especially with accusations of Russia supporting the separatists militarily, despite Moscow's denials.

·       Unclear terms: The terms of the agreement, especially regarding the political status of the separatist regions, were vague and controversial. Ukraine was unwilling to grant significant autonomy to Donetsk and Luhansk, while the separatists demanded greater independence.

·       Despite the agreement, Russia continued to be accused of providing military and logistical support to the separatists, further complicating efforts for peace.

Due to these failures, the Minsk I Agreement did not lead to a long-term ceasefire, and the conflict continued to rage in eastern Ukraine. This ultimately led to the Minsk II Agreement in February 2015, which aimed to resolve the conflict but also struggled to bring about a lasting peace.

What was the Minsk II Agreement?

In February 2015, the Minsk II Agreement was signed as a follow-up to the Minsk I Agreement from September 2014. The negotiations took place in Minsk, Belarus, and involved representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Germany, France, and the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. The goal of the agreement was to put an end to the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine and establish a roadmap for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

1.     A comprehensive ceasefire was to be implemented, and both sides were required to halt all military operations.

2.     Both Ukrainian forces and separatists were to withdraw heavy artillery, tanks, and rocket systems from the front lines to create a buffer zone.

3.     Both sides were to exchange all prisoners and detained individuals.

4.     Ukraine was required to grant special status and autonomy to the separatist-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, allowing for local elections and the establishment of self-governance.

5.     The agreement called for Ukraine to regain control of its border with Russia once the security situation improved and local elections were held in the separatist regions.

6.     The deal emphasized the need for safe and unhindered access for humanitarian aid to the affected areas.

While the Minsk II Agreement helped reduce large-scale violence and fighting in some areas, it ultimately failed to resolve the conflict due to several persistent challenges:

·       Despite the agreement, both sides continued to engage in sporadic fighting and heavy shelling. While large-scale battles subsided, clashes between Ukrainian forces and separatists continued in some areas.

·       Ukraine was reluctant to give the regions the degree of independence that the separatists demanded, and the local elections proposed in the agreement were not implemented as planned.

·       Despite Russia's commitments under the agreement, there were continued allegations that Moscow was still providing military support to the separatists, including weapons, fighters, and logistical assistance. Russia's role in the conflict remained a central issue.

·       Key provisions of the agreement, such as the restoration of Ukrainian control over the border, were never fully implemented, and the separatists continued to control the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Although Minsk II temporarily reduced the level of violence, it failed to bring about a permanent political solution or resolve the underlying causes of the conflict. The Donbas war dragged on for several more years, and the situation in eastern Ukraine remained unresolved.

Why did Ukraine’s Orthodox Church split from the Russian Orthodox Church?

In 2018, a significant religious and political development took place when Ukraine’s Orthodox Church officially split from the Russian Orthodox Church, leading to a major rift between Ukraine and Russia.

The split was formalized on January 6, 2019, when the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople, Bartholomew I, granted Ukraine’s Orthodox Church autocephaly—which means independence and the right to govern itself without interference from a higher ecclesiastical authority. The new church was known as the Orthodox Church of Ukraine. This move was the culmination of years of efforts by Ukraine to assert its religious independence from the Russian Orthodox Church, which had maintained significant influence over religious life in Ukraine for centuries.

The Orthodox Church in Ukraine had long been under the jurisdiction of the Russian Orthodox Church, which, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, continued to exert considerable influence over Ukrainian religious affairs. However, as Ukraine sought greater political independence from Russia, especially following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its support for separatist movements in eastern Ukraine, many Ukrainians began to push for an independent church.

The desire for a separate Ukrainian Orthodox Church was not just about religion but also about national identity and independence from Russian control. The Russian Orthodox Church strongly opposed the move, viewing the split as a threat to its influence in Ukraine and the wider Orthodox world. The church in Moscow declared that the decision to grant autocephaly to Ukraine was politically motivated and against the teachings of the Orthodox faith.

In December 2018, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko played a key role in facilitating the creation of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which was formed by the union of two major Ukrainian Orthodox Church factions, along with some smaller groups. This new church was granted independence by the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople, who holds a revered position in the Eastern Orthodox Church.

Russia strongly condemned the move, severing ties with the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople and declaring that it no longer recognized the authority of the Ecumenical Patriarch. The Russian Orthodox Church cut off communion with the new Ukrainian church and launched a campaign to undermine the Orthodox Church of Ukraine’s legitimacy. Moscow also pressured other Orthodox churches around the world to not recognize the Ukrainian church’s autocephaly.

The split created a deep division within Orthodox Christianity, with many Ukrainians embracing the independent church as a symbol of national sovereignty and religious freedom. Meanwhile, millions of Ukrainians continued to follow the Russian Orthodox Church, especially in eastern Ukraine, where ties to Russia remained strong.

Moscow saw this religious split as a direct affront to its influence, especially in Ukraine, and took aggressive steps to counter the new church, including attempts to discredit it and exert control over Ukrainian believers still loyal to the Russian Orthodox Church.

The split also reflected broader cultural and national divides between Ukraine and Russia, with Ukraine seeking greater distance from Russian influence. The independence of the Orthodox Church was seen as an important step in Ukraine’s broader efforts to assert its sovereignty and distance itself from Russia politically, culturally, and religiously.

So when was Zelensky voted in?

In 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected President of Ukraine in a historic landslide victory, defeating Petro Poroshenko in the second round of voting with more than 70% of the vote. Zelenskyy, a comedian and political outsider with no prior experience in government, ran on a platform of reform, anti-corruption, and a desire for peace, offering a fresh, non-establishment perspective to voters frustrated with Ukraine's ongoing political and economic challenges.

Before entering politics, Zelenskyy was a popular comedian and actor, best known for starring in the TV show "Servant of the People," where he portrayed a schoolteacher who unexpectedly becomes president of Ukraine. His public persona and outsider status helped him connect with Ukrainians tired of the entrenched political elites and corruption.

His campaign was centered on promises of transparency, reform, and a new approach to governance. Zelenskyy capitalized on widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo and vowed to take a different approach to both domestic and foreign policies.

Zelenskyy’s campaign included a promise to bring an end to the ongoing war in Donbas (which is part of eastern Ukraine) that had been raging since 2014. He expressed a desire to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the conflict with Russia and to pursue diplomatic efforts to bring stability to the region. This made his candidacy attractive to many Ukrainians, especially those in war-torn areas and those hoping for a shift in the way the government dealt with Russia.

He also aimed to reinvigorate the Minsk agreements, which had failed to deliver lasting peace in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

After taking office in May 2019, Zelenskyy faced immense pressure from Russia regarding the conflict in eastern Ukraine. While he initially sought to explore diplomatic avenues to de-escalate the situation and was open to talks with Russia, the conflict continued, with ongoing ceasefire violations and clashes in Donbas.

Zelenskyy pursued a more assertive approach than his predecessor, Poroshenko, at times making conciliatory gestures toward Russia, such as agreeing to prisoner swaps, but also standing firm on Ukrainian sovereignty.

His administration also rejected Russian demands to grant special status to the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, maintaining Ukraine's position that any peace agreement must respect its territorial integrity.

While Zelenskyy’s administration initially brought some optimism regarding peace prospects, he was quickly confronted with the complexities of negotiating with Russia. In December 2019, he participated in the Normandy Four summit (with the leaders of France, Germany, and Russia) aimed at reviving the peace process, but it failed to achieve a breakthrough.

In terms of domestic policy, Zelenskyy pushed for judicial and anti-corruption reforms, and his government made strides toward tackling corruption, though challenges remained in cleaning up the political establishment.

Zelenskyy’s early popularity was also buoyed by his reforms in the business sector and efforts to modernize Ukraine’s economy, although many of his efforts faced pushback from entrenched interests in the political and business elite.

Zelenskyy’s election in 2019 was seen as a dramatic shift in Ukraine's political landscape, marking the rise of a new, reform-oriented leader.

His election gave hope to Ukrainians who were frustrated by years of political gridlock and corruption. His pledge for peace, particularly with Russia, was a central feature of his campaign.

However, despite his willingness to negotiate, Zelenskyy faced significant resistance from both Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine and Russian authorities, who continued to pressure Ukraine.

Zelenskyy’s presidency began with high expectations for peace but quickly faced the harsh realities of the ongoing conflict and Russia’s unwillingness to compromise.

What did Russia do in 2021?

In 2021, tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated significantly, with Russia beginning to amass troops along Ukraine's borders, sparking widespread international concern. This military buildup was part of a broader strategy by Russia, which included demands for security guarantees from NATO and the United States regarding the alliance's expansion into Eastern Europe, particularly Ukraine's potential membership in NATO.

In early 2021, Russia began deploying tens of thousands of troops near its border with Ukraine, particularly in the Donbas region and Crimea, which Russia had annexed in 2014. The military buildup raised fears that Russia was preparing for a potential invasion of Ukraine or intensifying its support for pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

The Russian military presence near Ukraine's borders reached unprecedented levels by the spring of 2021, with estimates suggesting that up to 100,000 Russian soldiers were stationed along the border by April 2021. This deployment included tanks, artillery, and air defense systems, signaling a major escalation.

Alongside the troop buildup, Russia issued a series of demands aimed at the West, particularly NATO, regarding the future security architecture of Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials called for legally binding guarantees that NATO would not expand further eastward, particularly into Ukraine and Georgia, both of which had expressed aspirations to join the alliance.

Russia demanded that NATO halt its military activities in former Soviet republics and that NATO refrain from deploying weapons in countries bordering Russia. Moscow framed these demands as crucial to its national security, arguing that NATO’s expansion represented a direct threat to Russia's sphere of influence.

The United States, NATO, and European countries rejected Russia’s demands for a halt to NATO’s enlargement, citing the principle that countries have the right to choose their own security arrangements. The West also emphasized that NATO’s open-door policy allowed for potential future membership of Ukraine and other countries that meet the alliance’s requirements.

Despite the diplomatic deadlock, Western nations expressed strong support for Ukraine and condemned Russia's actions. NATO conducted military drills and increased its military presence in Eastern Europe as a show of solidarity with Ukraine and to deter any potential Russian aggression.

U.S. President Joe Biden held a summit with President Putin in June 2021, during which the issue of Ukraine and Russia’s military buildup was discussed. However, no significant breakthroughs were achieved in easing tensions.

In parallel with the military buildup, there was a resurgence of fighting in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donbas region, where Ukrainian forces have been battling Russian-backed separatists since 2014. The escalation of violence in Donbas in 2021 led to renewed fears of a broader conflict.

Both Ukraine and NATO accused Russia of continuing to supply arms, troops, and training to the separatists, although Russia denied direct involvement. The conflict remained a frozen war with periodic flare-ups, but the situation in 2021 seemed to be on the verge of becoming more intense.

As 2021 progressed, Russia and NATO engaged in several rounds of diplomatic discussions, but the situation remained volatile. Moscow continued to assert its demands for security guarantees, while the West reaffirmed its support for Ukraine and the principle of open borders for NATO members.

By the end of 2021, while a full-scale invasion had not yet occurred, the situation remained highly tense, and there was widespread concern that Russia might escalate its actions in Ukraine.

What happened on February 21, 2022?

On February 21, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin officially recognized the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) as independent states. These two self-proclaimed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine had been under the control of pro-Russian separatists since 2014, but their independence had not been recognized by Russia or the international community up until this point.

In a televised address, Putin declared that Russia would recognize the so-called republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent entities, effectively breaking away from Ukrainian sovereignty. He justified this move by citing alleged human rights abuses and discrimination against ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine, claims that were widely rejected by Ukraine and the international community as unfounded and pretextual.

Putin also signed decrees authorizing Russia to send military forces to the two regions, ostensibly for "peacekeeping" purposes, further signaling that Russia was taking an active role in these territories, despite Ukrainian and international claims that Russia was already heavily involved in the conflict there.

The recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states represented a significant escalation of Russia’s involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine. By recognizing the regions as independent, Russia effectively undermined the Minsk agreements which had called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict and the restoration of Ukrainian control over the Donbas and set the stage for further military action.

Ukraine and much of the international community viewed this as a violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Ukrainian government condemned Russia’s recognition and called it an illegal act, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials declaring that Ukraine would not surrender its territory.

The United States, European Union, and NATO condemned Russia’s actions and imposed sanctions on Russia. These sanctions targeted Russian individuals, banks, and businesses linked to the recognition of the breakaway regions and were part of a broader strategy to deter further aggression.

In addition to sanctions, Western leaders expressed unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty, promising military aid, economic assistance, and diplomatic backing.

Putin's recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states was widely seen as the precursor to a broader military escalation. It provided Russia with a pretext to deploy additional military forces into these regions under the guise of protecting Russian-speaking populations.

This move came just days before Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The recognition of the breakaway regions was framed as a justification for further Russian intervention, which ultimately led to the Russian invasion and the beginning of the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War.

What is the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War?

On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marking a dramatic escalation in the ongoing conflict between the two countries. This invasion was a major turning point in the Russo-Ukrainian War, which had been simmering since 2014, and it triggered a global crisis. Russia's invasion followed weeks of escalating military buildup along Ukraine's borders and the recognition of the separatist-controlled regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

On the morning of February 24, 2022, President Putin announced a "special military operation" in Ukraine, aimed at "demilitarizing" and "denazifying" the country. He claimed that the operation was necessary to protect Russian speakers in Ukraine and to counter what he described as a threat from Ukraine’s alignment with NATO.

In his speech, Putin falsely accused Ukraine of committing atrocities against ethnic Russians and Russian speakers, and he justified the invasion by claiming it was necessary to prevent Ukraine from becoming a NATO member, which he saw as a security threat to Russia.

Early in the morning of February 24, Russian forces launched a multi-pronged attack on Ukraine, using airstrikes, artillery, and missile bombardments. The invasion came from multiple directions:

The Northern axis referred to Russian troops advancing toward Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, from Belarus.

The Eastern axis referred to Russia making a push into the Donbas region, which had already been a hotbed of conflict between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists.

The Southern axis referred to Russian forces entering from Crimea, which Russia had annexed in 2014, moving toward key ports in the south, including Mariupol and Odessa.

Russia also launched widespread airstrikes on Ukrainian military targets and critical infrastructure across the country.

Russia's initial objectives appeared to be the capture of Kyiv and the toppling of the Ukrainian government. Russian forces aimed to quickly seize key cities, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, to force Ukraine to surrender and install a pro-Russian government.

The rapid advance of Russian troops was intended to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses, but Ukraine’s military, bolstered by the resolve of its citizens, mounted a strong resistance.

Contrary to expectations, Ukrainian forces fought back fiercely. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emerged as a symbol of resistance, rallying the Ukrainian people with strong leadership and defiant speeches. Despite being a target, Zelenskyy refused to leave Kyiv and remained in the country to lead the defense.

The invasion sparked global outrage. The United States, European Union, and other Western countries swiftly condemned the invasion and began imposing severe sanctions on Russia. In addition to economic sanctions, Western nations provided Ukraine with military aid, including weapons, ammunition, and training, to help them defend against the Russian onslaught.

The United Nations General Assembly called for an emergency session to address the situation, with many countries condemning Russia's actions and calling for a peaceful resolution.

The invasion led to widespread displacement of civilians within Ukraine and across borders into neighboring countries, primarily Poland, Romania, and Hungary. Millions of Ukrainians fled the country, creating one of the largest refugee crises in Europe since World War II.

Cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol were subjected to heavy bombardment, resulting in significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.

Initially, Russia’s military sought a quick victory, but the Ukrainian resistance proved stronger than expected. Russian forces faced logistical issues, morale problems, and stiff resistance, especially around Kyiv.

As the invasion continued, Russia’s objectives shifted. Instead of quickly toppling the Ukrainian government, Russian forces focused more on capturing territory in the east and south, including efforts to establish a land corridor to Crimea and secure the Donbas region.

Despite these efforts, the Ukrainian forces, with international support, managed to slow the Russian advance and even began pushing back in certain areas.

How has the West responded?

In response to the invasion, Western nations imposed harsh sanctions on Russia, targeting its economy, financial institutions, and individuals close to Putin. These sanctions were designed to isolate Russia from the global economy and put pressure on the Russian government to end the war.

Russia’s economy suffered greatly, with the value of the ruble plunging, and many international companies pulled out of the Russian market.

The invasion altered the global political landscape, with NATO and the European Union strengthening their support for Ukraine. NATO members, particularly the U.S. and European countries, increased military aid to Ukraine, providing advanced weapons systems, intelligence, and financial assistance.

The conflict also deepened the divide between Russia and the West, leading to a new era of geopolitical tension, similar to the Cold War.

Despite the early stages of the invasion, the war in Ukraine did not end quickly. Instead, it became a protracted conflict with heavy casualties on both sides. Major battles were fought in cities like Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Kyiv, and the war expanded into a broader regional conflict, with devastating effects on Ukraine’s civilian population and infrastructure.

Conclusion:

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, was a brutal and unprovoked escalation of Russia's longstanding conflict with Ukraine. What Putin initially hoped would be a quick military operation turned into a devastating war that has reshaped Europe’s security landscape, led to immense loss of life, and triggered unprecedented international sanctions against Russia. The invasion has not only led to widespread destruction and suffering in Ukraine but also marked the beginning of a new chapter in global geopolitics, with Russia and the West on opposing sides of the conflict. The war continues to have far-reaching consequences that affect international relations, economies, and global stability.

What has happened since Russia invaded Ukraine?

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, there have been significant political, economic, and social changes in Russia, as well as major consequences for its global standing. The invasion has led to international isolation, domestic repression, and profound shifts in Russian society and politics. 

·       The invasion triggered severe international sanctions, primarily from the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, and other Western allies. These sanctions targeted key sectors of the Russian economy, including finance, energy, technology, and defense. Russian banks were cut off from the SWIFT banking system, and many Western companies withdrew from Russia.

·       The Central Bank of Russia had a significant portion of its foreign reserves frozen, and Russian oligarchs faced asset freezes and travel bans. Major multinational corporations, such as Apple, McDonald’s, and Nike, halted operations in Russia, leading to shortages and economic challenges.

·       Western nations placed restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports, although Russia has managed to secure new markets for energy, particularly in China and India. However, the sanctions led to a dramatic reduction in foreign trade and investment.

·       Russia faced growing diplomatic isolation. It was suspended from the Council of Europe, and many countries, including the U.S. and European states, expelled Russian diplomats. Additionally, Russia was suspended from various international organizations and faced increasing criticism in the United Nations.

·       The sanctions, coupled with the impact of the war, pushed Russia into an economic recession. The ruble plummeted in value during the initial stages of the invasion but later stabilized due to government interventions and capital controls.

·       Inflation rates surged, especially for essential goods like food and gas. The Russian government took steps to control inflation, including raising interest rates and implementing price controls, but many Russians felt the impact of rising prices.

·       Due to international sanctions, Russia witnessed an increase in the black market for goods and services. In addition, the Russian government imposed stringent currency controls to prevent capital flight and stabilize the economy.

·       Russia has turned to China, India, and other non-Western countries to mitigate the effects of Western sanctions.

·       After the invasion, President Vladimir Putin and the government clamped down on political opposition and dissent within Russia. Anti-war protests were met with brutal force, and thousands of Russian citizens were arrested for protesting against the war.

·       Prominent opposition figures already imprisoned prior to the invasion, faced even harsher conditions, with authorities cracking down on independent media and political organizations.

·       The Russian government moved quickly to suppress independent journalism and control the narrative around the war. State-controlled media became the dominant source of information, and independent outlets were forced to shut down or flee the country. For example, popular news outlets like Meduza and Novaya Gazeta were either banned or forced to leave Russia.

·       Russia passed strict laws criminalizing the dissemination of “false information” about the military. This led to widespread self-censorship among journalists, academics, and ordinary citizens. Critics who referred to the conflict as an "invasion" or "war" faced arrest and penalties.

·       Following the invasion, a significant number of Russians, particularly those from the tech, media, and academic sectors, left the country due to political repression and uncertainty about the future. Thousands of anti-government activists, businesspeople, and professionals moved to countries like Georgia, Armenia, Turkey, and others in the region to escape repression and sanctions.

·       Russia experienced a brain drain, with many highly skilled workers leaving the country due to the uncertain political and economic environment. The loss of talented professionals, especially in fields like technology, engineering, and medicine, has had long-term implications for the Russian economy.

·       Putin’s government promoted a narrative of patriotism and Russian exceptionalism to rally domestic support for the invasion of Ukraine. Nationalistic sentiment has surged, with state-controlled media portraying Russia as fighting against the West and defending traditional values.

·       The government used state-controlled media and public events to promote patriotic symbols, such as the "Z" symbol, which has become associated with support for the military action in Ukraine. This symbol is now used as a rallying point for pro-war supporters within Russia.

·       Russia continues to refer to the invasion as a "special military operation" rather than a full-scale war. This narrative is reinforced through state propaganda to maintain public support for the conflict while suppressing dissent.

·       Initially, Russia relied heavily on professional military personnel, but as the war dragged on, conscription became a reality. In September 2022, Putin announced a partial mobilization, calling up hundreds of thousands of reservists to join the war effort. This sparked protests and mass emigration as many Russian men sought to avoid conscription.

·       The mounting number of Russian casualties, especially as the war entered a more protracted phase, has become a sensitive issue. As the death toll rose, there were growing concerns within Russian society, particularly in more rural areas, about the impact of the war on families and communities.

·       Russia has increasingly aligned itself with non-Western powers such as China and India, who have largely remained neutral or supportive of Russia’s stance on the conflict

·       Russia’s relationships with much of the West have deteriorated to historic lows, but it has continued to foster relationships with countries like Belarus, Iran, and North Korea, which are also facing international sanctions. Moscow has also sought to strengthen ties with Central Asia and the Middle East.

·       The prolonged conflict has strained Russia’s military resources. Despite early successes, Russian forces encountered stiff resistance from Ukraine’s military and civilian population. The war has exposed weaknesses in Russia’s military strategy, logistics, and morale, leading to significant losses.

·       In response to mounting challenges, Russia has begun reforms within its military structure, focusing on increasing readiness, upgrading weaponry, and improving logistical support to sustain the war effort.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has faced profound political, economic, and social shifts. The invasion led to international isolation, domestic repression, and economic hardships, all while the government pursued a war with devastating consequences for both Russia and Ukraine. Despite facing substantial setbacks in terms of military challenges, economic pressure, and internal dissent, Russia remains committed to its strategic objectives in Ukraine, while also seeking to bolster ties with non-Western allies. The long-term effects of the war on Russian society, politics, and its role in the international order are still unfolding, but it is clear that Russia has entered a new and more turbulent era.