Ep 561: The Butterfly Effect with Gilad Avrahami & Bernie Furshpan on hmTv

In Episode 561 of The Butterfly Effect on hmTv, host Gilad Avrahami and co-host Bernie Furshpan explore conformity, the bandwagon effect, fear of missing out, and groupthink, examining how people are often pulled into beliefs, behaviors, movements, and social trends simply because others around them are doing the same.

Building on their previous discussion about critical mass, Gilad and Bernie discuss how small individual choices can grow into powerful collective behavior, for better or for worse. Through relatable examples, from restaurant lines and dance floors to social media activism, peer pressure, politics, and Nazi Germany, they examine why people conform, why critical thinking matters, and how quickly belonging can become more important than truth.

This episode challenges listeners, especially young people, to pause before joining the crowd, question what they are supporting, resist hate-driven groupthink, and remember that even small actions can create meaningful change. 

Transcript

Ep. 561: The Butterfly Effect

Hosts: Gilad Avrahami and Bernie Furshpan

hmTv

Gilad Avrahami:
Hello, and thank you for joining me today. I’m your host, Gilad Avrahami, Programs and Development Coordinator here at HMTC.

I’m pleased to welcome my co-host, Dr. Bernie Furshpan, Director of Marketing, Public Relations, and Media at HMTC.

This podcast is a production of the Holocaust Memorial and Tolerance Center of Nassau County.

On today’s episode of The Butterfly Effect on hmTv, please join us for a conversation about conformity.

In our last episode, we talked about critical mass and the idea that in order for something to happen, you often need a large enough group of people to agree, participate, and act together. That may be necessary for political change, or even for something to become important enough that people pay attention to it.

Bernie Furshpan:
In other words, several thousand people might see something, and then suddenly millions of people are watching it. That is when something clicks. Something breaks through.

Gilad Avrahami:
Exactly. Sometimes it takes a very long time to reach that point. Then there is a tipping point, and the idea becomes everywhere, or it creates change.

But what we did not go into quite as much is what causes people to join that critical mass. That is what I would love to explore with you today.

There is a related idea called the bandwagon effect. It is the idea that people join something simply because they see other people around them joining it.

With critical mass, we might assume people are joining because they have thought about the topic, decided it is the right thing to do, and then joined. But the bandwagon effect says that often people are not making decisions based on reasoned consideration. They are joining because of what the people around them are doing.

So where do you see that happening? How can we recognize the bandwagon effect in action?

Bernie Furshpan:
First of all, I’m very excited to talk about this topic today. It really expands on the idea of critical mass.

At what point does something tip and become so present, so everywhere, that people feel pulled into it?

The bandwagon effect is a good term because everybody wants to jump on the bandwagon. People want to be part of something special. But more importantly, it is internal. A person may feel that they need to be recognized, appreciated, loved, or validated for being part of something.

I’m sure we’ve all done it. Somebody says, “I saw Britney Spears last night,” and someone else says, “So did I.” Suddenly, you are both fans. It makes you feel good. It makes you feel closer to the person you are speaking with. It makes you feel accepted, recognized, validated, and valued as part of the same mission or experience.

Gilad Avrahami:
Definitely. I think the bandwagon effect is a way of looking at it on a large scale, but really, it is a collection of very small decisions.

Bernie Furshpan:
It is a collection of individuals who want attention, or not necessarily attention, but recognition and value. I think every person on this planet wants to feel like they are doing something good in society, that they are valuable, and that they are doing something meaningful for others.

Gilad Avrahami:
Right. I’ve heard the term fear of missing out, or FOMO. That is exactly what I feel when I join something because other people are doing it too.

Maybe I would never have made the decision to go axe throwing at a bar. If I saw a bar on the street and there was nobody else doing axe throwing, no way. But if all my friends are doing it and they are going to talk about it the next day, then suddenly I think, “You know what? I’ll try axe throwing. What the heck?”

Bernie Furshpan:
Let me give you an example.

I was walking down 34th Street, maybe 32nd Street, and I was hungry. I saw a restaurant with a good menu, and I was looking at it in the window. But next door, there was another restaurant with a long line.

I wondered, “What is so special about their food?” So I asked someone on the line, and they said, “Oh my God, they make the best dumplings.”

Suddenly, I had this fear of missing out. The other restaurant could have served me within minutes. I would have been satisfied in five or ten minutes. But now I felt like I had to wait on this long line for dumplings.

So I stood online like an imbecile. I finally got the dumplings, and honestly, they were not anything special. They were not that great.

A lot of people get mesmerized, maybe even hypnotized, because a lot of other people like something. There is a breaking point where so many people are excited that you start to believe it must be that good.

Some people may actually believe it is that good. But I’m a realist, and it was not terrific. I was disappointed in myself for standing in line. But then I said, “If I didn’t wait, I would have always wondered what I was missing.”

Gilad Avrahami:
That ability to step outside of it and say, “What was this actually like?” is part of the ability to resist the fear of missing out.

You can say, “Yes, I have this fear of missing out. Yes, I want to see what other people are doing. But I can also step back and ask, what is actually in it for me? Is this the right thing to do?”

Of course, there are much more important decisions than standing in line for dumplings.

One thing researchers have found is that for many people, the need to be the same is often stronger than the desire to be unique. We do want to be unique. We do not want to look like we are doing exactly what everyone else is doing. But when it comes down to it, conformity often pulls us more strongly than the desire to be different.

There have been studies, including among Gen Z, showing that people may be drawn to buying luxury fashion brands because others are doing it. That pull can be much stronger than the desire to choose a brand that is unusual or unique.

As much as our culture values individuality, for both big decisions and small decisions, conformity often wins.

There have also been studies involving polls. If a poll shows that a majority of people support a certain position, just seeing that result can make people in the minority more likely to support the majority opinion. Especially when the view is not strongly held, seeing that everyone else seems to support something may become the tipping point.

That has implications in politics, culture, and even the stock market. People see others buying a certain stock and assume, “That must be good.” The more people buy into it, the more valuable it becomes. But if there is nothing solid underneath it, it can become a bubble, and eventually it can collapse.

Bernie Furshpan:
Sometimes I find there is a breaking point.

Let’s say a buffet opens. Nobody wants to be the first person to get on line because they don’t want to look like the pig. So people wait until a few others get on line first.

The same thing happens on a dance floor. You may not want to be the first one dancing, but once a few people are out there, you feel comfortable enough to join.

People don’t want to miss out, but they also don’t want to be first. Being first makes you stand out, and most people do not want to stand out that much. They want to be part of something exciting.

Gilad Avrahami:
Or they want to be unique within a certain accepted context.

Bernie Furshpan:
Exactly. We may all be wearing red shoes, but I have white laces with my red shoes to make them a little more special.

Gilad Avrahami:
Right, but not in a way that makes people question your character.

Bernie Furshpan:
Not in a way where people say, “This guy is an outcast. What is he doing?”

Gilad Avrahami:
Luckily, we are not in a society where shoelaces are the difference between belonging and not belonging. But if we were, even tiny symbols could make a major difference.

I want to go back to the idea of fear of missing out and what it causes us to do.

There are studies showing that the stronger a person’s fear of missing out is, the more likely they may be to text while driving. They do not want to miss out on what people are saying, so that social anxiety can overpower other considerations, including safety and ethical judgment.

There are classic examples too. If a teenager is surrounded by people passing around a drug, and they do not want to be the one person who refuses, they may be more likely to join in rather than say, “That is not something I want to do.”

This can also show up in organizations where serious decisions are being made, especially where moral action is critical. One example used in military settings is called “The Bus to Abilene.”

In that story, a family is sitting around bored. Someone says, “Do you want to go to Abilene?” They do not particularly want to go, but someone suggests it. Then another person says, “Sure, if you want to go, I’ll go.” Then another says, “If you are all going, I’ll come too.”

Everyone ends up going to Abilene. They have a terrible time. They do not enjoy the drive. They do not enjoy Abilene. It is hot and unpleasant.

When they get back home, they realize none of them actually wanted to go to Abilene. They only went because each person thought the others wanted to go.

In the military, referencing “the bus to Abilene” becomes a reminder. Before taking action or making a decision, make sure it is grounded in real reasons, not just because somebody suggested it and everyone else went along.

That ability to check yourself and check the people around you is one way to protect against the dangers of fear of missing out and the bandwagon effect.

Bernie Furshpan:
That is so true. You mentioned morality, and I think that is important.

A lot of people get involved in a group, and it becomes more important to them to belong to the group than to ask whether the group is morally correct.

We are trying to educate young people to be critical thinkers. They need to think carefully about what they are joining, what they are signing up for, and what they are agreeing to share on social media.

On social media, groups are virtual rather than physical, but people still feel like they are part of something. I don’t know how we are going to mitigate all of this, because there is so much going on. There are so many little fires, and it is hard to put them all out.

I am concerned about how this will impact young people as they grow up.

Gilad Avrahami:
I think we have increased our reliance on shortcuts.

We hear a slogan, a quick phrase, or a symbolic reference, and we immediately assume we know what it means and why we should support it. We have taught young people to respond quickly to symbols, slogans, and emotional cues.

These symbols shorten our discussions. They prevent us from talking about facts, because we rely instead on something quick, something seen on social media, or a phrase that feels powerful.

The stronger a certain mindset, emotion, or course of action becomes, the more intensely people may stick to it and resist anything else.

That has reduced our capacity to discuss issues deeply. It has also reduced our ability to see the person on the other side of the conversation as someone worth engaging with.

The more fear of missing out is built into us, and the more we are told that we have to belong to something immediately, the less we think about what we are actually supporting.

We have talked before about slacktivism. It is a quick way to signal whether someone is “in” or “out” without asking more deeply what they are supporting, how they are supporting it, or why.

We need to create spaces where people can have longer, more thoughtful discussions. People need to understand the facts behind the issues they are participating in or advocating for. They need stronger and more coherent reasons for their actions.

They also need the ability to hear another side and respond, not with a quick callout, but with something more substantive.

Bernie Furshpan:
Gilad, you brought up the term groupthink. I didn’t realize it at first, but what I was talking about earlier is really groupthink.

Groupthink happens when the desire for harmony becomes stronger than the desire for truth. In groupthink, people stop challenging one another. They avoid conflict. They mistake silence for agreement.

That is a scary thing.

That is part of what happened in Nazi Germany. There was critical mass, and then there was groupthink. At first, people resisted Hitler’s extreme ideology. It took him twelve years to convince people of his ideology.

Today, I think things happen faster because of social media and electronic communication. Back then, even with speeches and word of mouth, people still resisted at first.

Gilad Avrahami:
Absolutely.

Today, we are connected at a national and international scale immediately. You are part of an international community simply by existing.

At that time, if you lived in a village, you were much more disconnected. The most important people around you were the people who lived with you, not necessarily national leaders or a national party. Life was much more local.

Now, that has good and bad effects. There is a responsibility that comes with being a global citizen. But with greater connection comes greater responsibility.

The more technology allows us to connect with each other, the more responsibility we have to think for ourselves and know what we are participating in.

Even during the Holocaust, we saw the capacity for people to follow something just because others around them were doing it. That is why we say “Never Again.” We know human beings have the capacity to follow, to conform, and to be influenced by hate.

Hate is a very strong emotion. It appeals to the heart in a way that can make the fear of missing out even stronger.

Bernie Furshpan:
So true.

Gilad, for someone your age, you have a tremendous amount of wisdom. I know people my age who do not have half the wisdom you have. I don’t know how you gained this insight, but I’m glad I am your co-host.

This whole idea of The Butterfly Effect was brilliant. It was your idea, and you really ran with it. You flew with it, literally and figuratively.

You have taken this premise and broken it down from so many angles. It explains so much about why people do what they do.

Most people just react to other people’s reactions. Nobody is really listening anymore. But what you do is put on the red light and say, “Stop for a second. Let’s catch our breath. Let’s break this down.”

That is why this is happening.

This feels like a psychology and sociology master class. I’m grateful that we are discussing these things because not enough people are. People are just reacting to reactions. You are helping explain why people behave in certain ways, and it brings humanity back into our adversities.

Gilad Avrahami:
Very well said. Thank you, Bernie.

If I come into these podcasts with these ideas and thoughts, it is because they have been all around me. That is what education allows us to do.

I think it is easy, once you are out of school and in the working world, to focus only on what is directly in front of you. But there are lessons about the world and humanity that we grow up with, especially here in the United States, where students are encouraged to think about their actions in the world and why they matter.

I wanted to keep that. Ever since I learned it growing up, I knew it was something I wanted to carry for the rest of my life.

I think everyone has the capacity to do this.

To everyone listening, find ways in your life to think this way. It can be as simple as making sure that when you are speaking with someone about a difficult topic, you step back and ask yourself a few questions.

Am I engaging responsibly? Am I advancing understanding? Am I respecting other people? Am I doing something good for humanity? Or am I just participating in a butterfly effect that I may not fully understand or control?

One thing we remind every student who comes to HMTC is that you do have control, often much more than you realize.

It does not end in high school. It does not end in college. It does not end with your family or your essays. It is part of every single thing you do.

You have the capacity, intelligence, heart, and soul to take action, even in the smallest ways.

I hope this podcast inspires people to keep doing that, because everyone needs reminders. We need to know that there are people around us who believe in the same things. If we all act together, we really can make a difference.

Bernie Furshpan:
Absolutely. Wonderful.

Gilad Avrahami:
Thank you.

And thank you so much to everyone for tuning in to this episode of The Butterfly Effect on hmTv.

If you enjoyed exploring the information, history, and stories in today’s conversation, be sure to check out our other podcasts here at hmTv.

One more big thank you to my co-host, Dr. Bernie Furshpan, here at HMTC.

Please subscribe, share, and stay connected for more engaging conversations.

Until next time, take care and be well.