27. MAKING A PRIME MINISTER IN MAKERFIELD? Predicting election results, +Ebola in African cities, +domestic worker activism, +global sand crisis, +housing and the World Urban Forum and more

In this episode Beth and Tom are joined by Dr Lotte Hargrave from the University of Manchester to discuss whether psephology - the study of elections and voting behaviour - can predict the next Prime Minister of the UK. 

All eyes are turned on the town of Makerfield in Greater Manchester, where Andy Burnham is making a play to win the constituency and head south - back to Westminster, and (probably) a leadership contest to replace Keir Starmer as UK PM. 

With Lotte we discuss whether we can predict the results of the election, the potential outcomes of a win for Burnham for the Greater Manchester mayoralty and why hyperlocal factors suggest it is all still to play for. 

Go to 27:56 for this discussion.

Also on our radar:

• Whether the UK needs to introduce maximum indoor temperatures for workplaces as urban heat rises
• Rising concern about Ebola in African cities in the shadow of global aid cuts
• Activism and urban organising for domestic workers
• How urbanization is driving the global sand crisis 
• The many faces and contradictions of datacentre resistance
• Housing and the World Urban Forum in Baku, Azerbaijan  

Guest:

Dr Lotte Hargrave is a Lecturer in Quantitative Political Science at the University of Manchester and a contracted psephologist for the BBC Elections Programme. Her research focuses on political behaviour, public opinion, gender and stereotyping in politics, and electoral politics. Before joining Manchester, she was Head of Data Science at the polling company Deltapoll. Website: Dr Lotte Hargrave

From our archives:

Interview with Andy Burnham and Steve Rotheram (Episode 6)

The Manchester Model - with Adam Leaver and Rich Goulding (Episode 2)

Read more:

sand — RareEarth_KateDawson

AI Data Centers Are The New Plantations Unless We Build Them Differently - Honolulu Civil Beat

Building Climate Resilient Housing - World Cities Report

Late deciders, higher turnout - The Conversation

Political favourability ratings, May 2026

Hosts:

Tom Goodfellow is Professor of Urban Development in the Global Development Institute, University of Manchester.  His research focuses on the political economy of urban development and change in Africa, particularly the politics of urban land and transportation, conflicts around infrastructure and housing, and urban institutional change. (linkedin.com/in/tom-goodfellow-0b418441) 

Beth Perry is Professor of Urban Epistemics and Director of the Urban Institute at the University of Sheffield. Her research focuses on the relationships between urban expertise, governance and justice, underpinned by a commitment to co-producing collective intelligence across multiple scales to address complex urban challenges. She has worked in cities in Africa, Europe and the UK. (linkedin.com/in/itsbethperry)

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Thanks to the Universities of Sheffield and Manchester for providing time, resources and equipment to support this podcast.