Real Estate Roundup: End-of-Year Market Review

In this special year-end episode of Clarksville Insider, host Josh Atkins delivers the final real estate roundup of the year with a big-picture look at Montgomery County’s housing market. Instead of focusing on a single month, Josh breaks down full year-end totals and compares how the market finished this year versus 2024, covering sales activity, days on market, pricing trends, and what the numbers really say beneath the headlines.

Because it’s an end-of-the-year episode, the conversation goes deeper with a five-year review of interest rates and a five-year look at Montgomery County home prices, offering both short-term and long-term perspective. The goal isn’t prediction or hype, but clarity—helping homeowners, buyers, sellers, and local market watchers understand where the market has been, how it’s shifted, and what the data suggests as we move forward.

Chapters

• 15:40 5 Year Interest Rate Review
• 25:39 7 Year Home Value/Prices Review

Transcript

0:01

Welcome back to Clarksville Insider. I am your host, Josh Atkins, I like the diet. And today's episode is a little different because this is our final real estate roundup of the year. Now, instead of focusing on just one month or one trend, we're going to step back and we're going to look at the big picture. We'll break down the final year end totals from Montgomery County Real Estate and compare where we finished this year versus where things wrapped up at the end of 2024. what moved, what slowed, and what those numbers are really telling us beyond the headlines. And well, because this is a special end of the year episode, we're gonna go even deeper. I'll also walk you through a five-year look at interest rates and a five-year look at home prices right here in Montgomery County. The goal isn't to predict the future or create fear or hype. It's to give you short-term and long-term perspectives. So whether you're a homeowner, a buyer, a seller, or just someone who likes to keep an eye on the market, you can understand where we've been and what direction the data suggests we may be heading next. So what we are going to do is we are going to get right into the numbers. This is a numbers heavy episode. If you got glasses with tape on them, just like George McFly, push them up and let's get into it because I want... I want to cover a lot of things. I don't want to take too much time, but whatever time it takes, that's what we're doing. we are looking at year end stats. Normally we look at the monthly totals for active listings, home sold in the last 30 days. Now we're going to hit it quick in December just to give you a feel for where we are now. But I really want to lean in on the averages. really want to push and not push, but I want to take a look at those things because there's really some things that I feel like we can see and draw from that. So we're just going to hit right down the line on my spreadsheet. so first of all, active listings right now, when I checked it just a couple days ago, active listings in Montgomery County, 1,497. Now that's actually down from last month, 1,577. So down a little bit on the actives. Maybe some people are maybe holding off on listings maybe things have been selling a little bit more we'll see where we're at active under contract though 432 so right now under contract 432 homes and last month 576 so a significant drop significant drop in active under contracts now expired or canceled this month 250 Last month 433 so we got a few less That have expired or been canceled by the seller and home sold in the last 30 days 376 I want to take a guess at november 3 80 And so we are right in line right together right next to that and so that's been pretty steady now days on market average days on market for the month of December 52. 52. Now that could change and will change when you look at if you try to zero in on a price point you might say at 275 versus 475 or 575 or even 875. That number changes. So this is just every house that sold whatever price point average days on market 52. Last month 46. month 46 up to 52 homes have been coming up and creeping up a little bit uh since the summer now interestingly enough you look all the way back at March when I started doing this average days on market 49 so the ups and downs this is where perspective comes in so if you looked at it from this this month from let's say back in July or July let's use that one 37 you're like geez 15 more days. That's crazy. Well at one point it was 54 in April So who's to say how that's gonna look? It's just more keep in perspective Keep perspective on it now this one jumped out to me a little bit sale price to list price This is what somebody put it on the market at the price wise and what it actually sold for sale price versus list price now all year We have had sale price to list price hovering at the 99s and 98%. 99 and 98%. Back in March, 99.3. Last month, 98.9. So we have just been hovering right there all year and every number in between. This month, 95.7. It's over three percentage points down. So that means... In the month of December, were selling at what they listed at, me try that again, homes were selling what they were listed at 95 % of that. That's what they actually sold for. And traditionally, all year, it's been over 98, 99. So 3%, kind of a big jump. That kind of jumps out to me a little bit how I'm looking at it. And average sale price. Last month, $344. Back in July, $353,000. This month, $349,000. Average list price from the lowest to the highest. In December, $349,000. Now, average price per square foot. I know some of you like this number. $179,000. Last month, it was $184,000. It's been $180,000 all year. All year. Every month that I've tracked it. And this year, first time, it's under 180 at 179. Average square foot of sold homes. How big were the homes when they sold? 1,979. 1,979 square feet. That's the average of the homes that sold in December. We look back in November 1904. The highest number we had all year was August 2003. So 2003 square foot, that was the average. So we've been mid 1800s to 1900s all year. And so this is pretty standard. So that hasn't fluctuated too much. Now what I want to do is look at the averages of 2024 and 2025. So we take all the numbers. So what I've been doing is every month or every month that I've done this is I give you the averages of that month and then I compare it to the same month the year before. right. Dragon so far? Sure you are. So what I want to do is I want to take those numbers and get the yearly averages of 2024 and the yearly averages of this year 2025. and do a little comparison because that's what I like to do. I like to compare because the number means nothing. If you don't have something to compare it it's like when you jam your finger or you break your finger or your toe or something. The only way you know really how bad it is is to line it up with the other finger, the other middle finger and go, oh, yikes, this thing is really swollen. Well, this is what we're doing. We're lining up the hands, lining up so that we can see, okay, one to one ratio, single comparison, what are we looking at? So 2024, 2025, let's make some comparisons. Now, I'm gonna skip a couple of these on the 2024 just because I don't have them. These are actives right now. So I compiled all the active listings all the way back to April, which is when I actually started doing this. And the average number of listings when I did the podcast, when I recorded it and got the numbers for the month of 2020, 2025 was one thousand six hundred and one So on average There were 1600 homes active on the market and under contract Sometimes back. I'm jeez back in April. We had 800 Like I said just a little bit ago December four hundred and thirty two so the average throughout the year of under contract during any given month, 656. those are the ones that I don't have numbers for because it's hard to have active for a year ago. So I'm not too worried about that. But that's just more so you could have some numbers to play around with and wow your friends at parties. Did you know that there were an average of 1,600 listings in 2025? Well, congrats. So here we go. Let's start putting some stuff together here. Expired versus canceled. In 2024, the average for expired and canceled listings was 241 per month. Give or take. And this year, 2025, the average, 370. That is an uptick of almost 130 on average per month. So that's up 53.5%. That is a big number. Now, I'm not trying to draw any Conclusions from that yet, but just realize that expired canceled means these are listings that hit the market Got the treatment got the just listed Got all the the pictures the open houses the hey just got me a new listing those kind of things and Didn't sell For whatever reason and sometimes you get carryover from month to month if it's a new construction You got some different things in there, but for the most part. That's what happens For whatever reason, the listing expired or it was canceled. And per month, a year ago, we were averaging 241. This year, we were averaging 370. That's a big jump. homes sold in a 30-day window, 2024, 430. This year, 414. That's down 3.7%. Now, I think that's pretty indicative, you know, just kind of how things have been looking. People have been settling into the market a little bit and you get that. So that's where those numbers are. Down 3.7 % from a year ago. Days on market from 2024, the average, 41. 2025, 46. Average days on market, 46. So about a month and a half. Last year, kind of the same. So it's up 12%, but really, you don't feel it because it's all averages. The home that sells three days on the market, there's a home that sells nine months on the market, and those all mix together. But on average, 46, month of 2025 versus 2024, month, the year 2025. Alright folks, it's the end of the year. We're gonna make it together. How about about sale price to list price? Remember this was the one where it said 95.7 % Sale price to list price. 2024 is 99%. What it was listed for is what it sold for, 99 % of that. Average on 2025, 98. It's still up there. It is still up there. And this is for everybody that's like, let's lowball. This is the lowball number right here. It's like, okay. You wanna know the average for 2025? Average list price to sale price, 98%. 98 % of what it's listed at versus what it sells for. Now, average sale price a year ago, $340,000. This year, $350,000, up 2.9%, up 3%, basically. So in the middle of all that, all of the numbers, all of the warnings, all the Fed, all the everything else that you see and you hear, home prices? Home prices and home values in Montgomery County. I'm not doing national stats forget that let's let's talk about what was going on here last year 340 this year 350 up 3 % just for owning your house Now price per square foot Negligible 185 to 184 pretty much exactly the same Now, average square foot of homes. This one actually went up last year, 1868. This year, 1929. Up 3.3, about 3%. Now, it's funny how you get that going. Okay, home price is going up and the size of square footage of the homes going up. So that's how you can read that. The biggest jump. we saw were the expired and canceled at that 53 % increase from 240 to 370. Those are the averages. And so when you look at that, you just go, oh, OK. And again, I said at the beginning, this is not meant to give anything more than perspective. So you can go, oh, OK. Because you may be in one of those camps. You may be a seller or a buyer. You may already own your home and just want to sit and look at some numbers. Great. And so wherever this fits your context, that's what this is for. Maybe you might be moving to the area in a year. Okay. Well, imagine if you came into Clarksville knowing all this, knowing the stats. So that when it was time to write an offer, when it was time to review listings and go, man, this one's been on the market for 32 days, man, the average is 46. Oh, okay. Well, you're just a little bit smarter. You're welcome. all right. That's the normal roundup fashion. That's the normal episode. Normally I'd say, thanks for listening. We're getting in, we're getting out with some numbers. But we're going further. We're going deeper. digging into a little bit. At the same time, we're going deeper, we're also expanding. So it doesn't quite work scientifically in how that actually works. But what we're going to do first is I've got two more sections to hit, two more things to really go over. I might try to draw some conclusions, but again, I'm not really in the conclusion business. I'm really in the information business for this particular podcast, this particular show, this particular episode. So we are looking right now changing gears, shifting gears, turning left, whatever transition you need to get us into this, out of the normal roundup into, let's talk interest rates. Now, I'm not an interest rate expert, I am not a lender, I do not monitor these things daily or track these things. So what I had to do is I just went into ChatGPT and got some averages. So, If you're out there and you've got some other numbers, you're on mortgageratedaily.com and saying, okay, you said 6.96 when actually the average is 6.94. It's like, okay, settle down. We're talking big picture, long-term, 30,000 foot view flyover. This is what we're trying to see because this is for people that have been, oh, these interest rates would love to buy. Maybe you've said this, maybe you've thought it, maybe you've... been in a conversation where somebody else said it, or you've heard it somewhere. We would love to buy, these darn interest rates. We would love to buy, but these interest rates are just so darn high. Well, let's get some perspective. See what we got here. Now, anybody who's listening to this is probably old enough to remember five years ago. Five years ago, what we call in the real estate business, or at least what I call the Wild West. So real estate roundup, Wild West. See, we got a theme going here. But the Wild West, and you remember it because it was like, what is going on here? We have friends that are selling their house that weren't even talking about selling their house and they're moving across town and they're getting half a million dollars in their bank account and they're buying. That's what it seemed. That's what the stories were sounding like. I don't know. Do you hear about Frank and Shirley? Oh yeah. Can you believe that? Well. That's because the interest rates were very low. The average for 2021. average interest rates, and I got each month breakdown, so I got 60 little boxes in front of me here. The average for 2021 interest rate was 2.957. Just a hair under three. But in that, there's a 2.84. There's a 2.74. These are the things that you frame on your wall of the house that you're never leaving because you are locked into that rate. It's just hard to give up this 2.74, I get it. That's something you frame. That's a Mickey Mantle autograph. You put that on the wall. Say, we got a 2.7. Anything with a two, you frame it. Now, 2022 is different because 2022 is when they started to crank up the rates and it was like somebody turned off a faucet. It was that stark. I know. I was right in the middle of it. I was learning the business at the time, trying to get my feet underneath me. And right at the beginning of the year, there's no more twos. The last 2 % that we saw was September of 2021, 2.9. Everything else? Threes. April, March, uh-oh, fours. May, June, July, August fives and boom, right here. I'm pointing like you can see what I'm pointing at. September of 2022 average interest rates according to a machine that I told to gather interest rates is 6.11%. And from that moment on, it has not gone under. The monthly average or the monthly rate, whatever it actually gave me, has not gone under 6%. to this day. So you look at that and you go, anybody that was waiting to buy in September, say, no, we're going to wait for rates to come down. They have been waiting. Maybe this is you. You've been waiting for 40 months, three years and four months for rates to come down. And there's really no insight because I'm not in the prediction business. If I was, I would be a lot better off than I am now because then you'd be able to know, but we don't. We don't have a clue. And so we're looking at this going, okay, rates have been over 6 % for 40 months. And for all the people that have been waiting for that three, four percent, even five have just been waiting and waiting and waiting. And we'll get to home prices in a bit. That's the next section because that's what's been happening alongside these interest rates that have just stayed the same. Now, let's look at some averages just because I like numbers, I like seeing perspective. The average of the last five years, interest rates, 5.68. Remember, 2021, the average. was 2.9, so it was right under three right there. And the average, if you get all five of those, is 5.68. Now, this is what I did. I threw out 2021. And the four year average, 2025, 24, 23, 22, the average of the last four years, 6.36. And the last three months of 2025 have been under that. October 6.25 November 6.24 December 6.21 what we've seen. is marginable, marginal, negligible changes. for the last three and almost a half years. Now pull it back even more, 25 years, the average according to the machine, 5.54. 5.54 those 3 % numbers That interest rate that you've got a friend that magically made a move at the right at the very perfect time The rates that they have there is no indication that we are gonna sniff those for a long time Here I am in the prediction business right now There's just there's no indication based on what we've seen That all of a sudden rates are gonna drop 3 % They've been hovering above six since September of 2022. Since 2022, we have not seen anything under 6 on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. and the 25 year average, 5.54, just under six. So, little perspective. That's all we're offering. Perspective. Because that's what fuels what you do next. Because maybe you have been sitting there, well, we'd love to make a move, but these darned interest rates. Well, guess what? Doesn't look like there's been much movement and for one two, three, four five six of those months six out of forty They've been over seven No, sorry five five months out of forty They've been over seven percent Geez 2023 october 7.62 So we are way under that. We're over a point under that. So get some perspective as you're making decisions. If you're sitting in a house, you can't stand. We need more, we need less, we need whatever. You're I just can't wait till these rates. Well, you're going to keep staring at the same walls for another year, more than likely. Now, here's what's been going on. Alongside that these are parallel tracks They were interest rates and the average home prices now We're gonna zoom in on Montgomery County those interest rates. I just got nationwide I didn't really know if there were local rates, but this I could get and this is right from real tracks This is right off the MLS Now the average home price I went all the way back to 2019 for this average home price in 2019. Take a guess. Well, I'll, okay. Let's average in 2025. Take a guess. What do you think? Well, I just said it. 350. Actually, 351,296. Now, let's go all the way back to 2019. Average home price. 210,470. 210,470 Do you understand that is a increase in average home price? purchases sold homes of a hundred and forty thousand eight hundred and twenty six dollars since 2019 Sweet dear that is 67 % increase That's the bad news That's the bad news if you've been waiting. Now, if somewhere in there you were able to capitalize on that, congrats. A lot of movement going on. Now, here's how we get perspective, right? Here's how we do it. Because what I just did, I did forced perspective, just the same way Gandalf looked like a giant next to the hobbits, forced perspective. They were further away. He was closer. So, we're gonna break this down instead of one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. We're gonna break it down into three years. Because what we're going to do is we're going to look at two parts of that. The first part is when there was, well, part of that Wild West, when everything was people were selling, they didn't even know what they were selling or why. It was, don't know, let's hit the market. Things were selling in the coming soon phase. I was looking for buyers on a house and say, OK, it's going to hit the market on Friday. Let's go see it and Thursday when I would schedule the showing for the following day it would say under contract That's what it was like You may remember you may have been Received you may have received one of those phone calls. Hey bad news Okay, it was wild. So here's here's how things were moving average home price 2019 210 then the following year 2020 234 That's an 11.5 % increase. Think it's over? Oh, heck no. We are still just taking the rocket. This is the beginning. 2020 to 2021, 234 to 276. That is a 17.9 % increase in home value, home sales. Think we're done? Heck no. We are still riding the rocket. 21 to 22, 276 to 326. Another 17.8, almost 18 % increase. Two flipping years in a row. You believe that? Two years in a row, 17.9, 17.8. then. following year 2022 settles in $326,168. So we're saying 326. average in three or two twenty twenty three can i talk three hundred and thirty thousand We went from 210. to 326 in a one, two, three year period. uh $116,000 increase in three years. This is just averages, and these are home sales at any price. 22 to 23. Wanna guess the increase? 326 to 330 a percentage increase of 1. 1.3 % after 11.5 17.9 17.8 hit the brakes turn off the faucet 1.3 2023 to 2024. 330,000 to 340, a very manageable 3.0%. And then last year to this year, 340 to 351, 350. That is a very reasonable average of percentage increase of 3.2. Can you see how perspective changes things? Can you see how depending on what you're looking at can change how you view it? Not just in life, but we're just zeroing in right here because this is what we're talking about. If you were in the market in 2020, by that I mean you owned a house or you were thinking about buying one, maybe selling, and you missed that wave. and you didn't buy, you didn't sell, I would guess that what you've been living with for the last four to five years is regret. frustration. Maybe a little bit, a twinge, a pinch of jealousy if you know somebody that did that made a move, especially in those first few years. because you saw it, you lived it, you heard the stories, and you missed out. It's like, hey, did you hear? Yeah, I heard. We're good. Alright. Okay. And now all you can do is think about, man, I wish we would have, we should have done, oh man. And you've just been sitting in it for the last couple years. But if you didn't know that, if you weren't around, maybe you were in college, maybe you're a young couple, young buyer, maybe you're by yourself, single, whatever, and you didn't know anything about 2020, the Wild West, any of that, you're just showing up going, hey, what are home prices like? Well, you don't know anything under a 6 % rate. and you don't know anything above a 3 % year to year increase. which seems on the national average pretty standard. 25 years, interest rates 5.54. You're coming in going, all right, well, I guess that's what it is. And some of you, you may be sitting there thinking, well, it's been like this for three, almost three and a half years, we might as well start looking. Great. Here are the numbers. Do with them what you will. But here's the deal. Average home price in September 22, 321,000. Average in December 25, 349. September 22, that is when the interest rates got above 6%. And remember, they have not gone down since then. Average in September 22, 321,000. And this month, $349. So there's been a increase, or an increase. gone up 20,926 since 2023, only 6%. So if you looked at, you chopped it in half, Top three, bottom four. 2019 to 2022, and it was insane. The last three years, home prices have only gone up 6.3%. but at the same time, home values. the same time. That's what we're talking about, home values. They've gone up 28,000 since rates got above 6%. Now, this doesn't mean, this is the reason nobody makes predictions. That doesn't mean that you have an extra 28,000 in your pocket if you would sell. Why is that? Well, of course, fees, closing costs, repair costs, as the market has shifted. into a more balanced market, sellers are paying for more things. It's costing more to sell a house. Back in the Wild West, sellers weren't paying for nothing. And it was so crazy that I have to use grammar like that. They weren't paying for nothing. People were auditioning to buy houses. It was like American Idol. You'd come out Present your offer and the sellers would sit at their table with their coca-cola cups and look at each other And say huh you're on to the next route America's Got Talent they'd hit the X you're out. You're not paying for your You're not paying for this you're asking us for an inspection. You're out those guys aren't You're only going ten thousand over you're out. They're going twelve. I Mean, that's what it was like So it doesn't just mean 28,000 in your pocket, but what it does mean, $28,000 increase since rates got above 6%. That 321 in September 22 to 349 in December 25. So if you bought then, obviously you'd still have fees, closing costs, repair costs, all those kind of things. That's the disclaimer. But if you've been waiting to buy, until rates come back down. We're going to be waiting for a while. And I mean like down down down. They may hit that 6%. They may hit 5 and 3 quarters in March and I hope they do. I hope they come down. But I'm just looking at the numbers. I'm looking at how things have been for the last 5 years, 7 years. And while you've been waiting, remember that movie While You Were Sleeping? Sandra Bullock? was last time that movie was referenced on a podcast. But while you've been waiting for rates to drop, home values have continued to increase. I'm going to wrap with this. While you've been waiting, home values have been ticking up. 1.3, 3.0, 3.2. It's just like, okay, here we go. It's like an interstellar, if you saw that. They go down to the water planet and every minute that passes is like three years or five years or one year on the ship that they left their friend on. And so you actually hear the tick. So while they're on this planet for seven minutes, 20 minutes, 15, whatever, they get back and it's been 20 years in the ship and they don't know what's going on. They didn't realize it. So by the time you get your 5 % or this imaginary number that you're waiting for to make a move, to think about moving on a house that is too small in a place you don't want to be. By the time you finally get that 5%, maybe if the stars align a 4 point something. That$330 house you've been eyeballing? is gonna be 425. So now instead of getting six and a half or getting six and a quarter on a 360 house you're getting your four point eight on a $425,000 house. Do you see how that works and I don't I'm sure it sounds like Okay, you're just trying to push us to buy push this out. You're just trying to float whatever. Okay, relax The goal is to inform it's to teach I taught for nine years. Give information. You put it through your grid, how you make decisions, what's best for your family. Put it through what you've been waiting for and thinking about for the last couple years. And if these numbers mean nothing, that's fine. But maybe they will help inform one way or the other. But just know that if interest rates are the thing that you're waiting on, you're probably gonna be waiting for a And I doubt that has anything to do with just Montgomery County. I think that's nationwide. So if you're gonna move, if you're thinking about moving, use the numbers and move when it's right for your family, whenever that is. That'll be my closing pitch. Now, as we wrap up the year-end real estate roundup, the biggest takeaway is context. Biggest takeaway of context, and that means how it works out for your family, and that's what I was just saying. One year of data can feel dramatic on its own, but when you zoom out, Comparing year over year over year all the way back to 2019 or 2022 or whatever. Looking at the year over year numbers and then layering in five years of interest rates and home prices, you start to see patterns instead of panning. Markets shift rates rise and fall prices adjust but understanding those movements over time is What helps people make confident informed decisions instead of emotional ones what helps you? Make confident informed decisions instead of emotional ones So thanks so much for spending part of your day with me here in course If this episode helped you better understand the market or sparked a question about your own situation, I'd love to hear from you. You can follow the show, share it with someone who's been wondering what's really going on with real estate in Montgomery County, and connect with me anytime for more local insight. In the meantime, I am Josh Atkins, and I'll see you next time as we keep breaking down life, real estate, and everything in between here.