Whiskey & Donuts
Whiskey & Donuts is where sharp analysis - and maybe a shot or two of speculation - meets unfiltered conversation, tackling politics, culture, and the issues that matter with a mix of logic, humor, and straight talk. No echo chambers, no nonsense -just real discussions with a side of wit and a strong pour of common sense.
Whiskey & Donuts
Trade Wars: Tough Talk or Total Turmoil?
Tariffs, tweets, and tension on the seet. Tre' argues the president's trade war is performative chaos with real costs, while John says it's finally putting America first. Can we bring jobs back - or are we chasing ghosts in an automated world? Sparks fly in this raw debate about economic power, political spin, and the future of American labor. (Recorded April 8, 2025)
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so deep breath, deep breath. Let's put our swords away right now. We got to go from sword fights to trade fights okay, talking tariffs because while one woman was being disqualified on the fencing strip, entire nations are playing on a different kind of chessboard. I don't know who's been paying attention, but markets are in just absolute chaos right now and we're not even sure who's taxing who. We keep hearing the term America first, and then there's others turning it into Americans last at the cash register. But wow, let's talk about what the real cost of these trade wars is, and what looks tough on paper might actually be fueling what we claim that we're against.
Speaker 2:So let's get into it what we claim, we're against.
Speaker 1:What do we claim we're against? Well, I mean, there is this thing that instability in weaker nations leads to immigration from those nations.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I think you guys are just reaching for shit. Now Continue.
Speaker 1:I'll listen. So I've heard people saying that we're going to hit China where it hurts, and I'm just like that doesn't? That's not really how it works. China is kind of big and can kind of do its own thing. I'm not sure how we're taxing China if China simply raises prices and then we pay those higher prices. Are you able to make that work or no?
Speaker 2:Well, I just view it. I look at this whole thing different than you, so I sent you something the other day about it and I think you don't watch any of the shit that I send you on tariffs because it doesn't interest you from the canadian or from someone else, which one you would rather beat the drum of.
Speaker 2:It's never going to work. So we'll wait and see. And I said that the other night when we were doing our one of our recordings that, uh, we're gonna have to wait and see if this whole thing works. I see it. It working exactly the way that he planned on it working. He never one time when he was campaigning, said that this shit was going to be easy and that it was going to be like his first term. He never said that. I don't know why you guys thought that he was going to come in and fix a whole bunch of shit. First of all, he never said he was going to fix a whole bunch of shit. He said he was going to tear a whole bunch of shit down.
Speaker 2:People like me I'm okay with it. You don't like it because you are like oh well, we need to protect Europe and we need to protect France and we need to protect all of these other countries. I just don't see it that way. We'll see. We'll see what happens. It's either going to be good or it's going to be bad.
Speaker 2:Right now, I think things are getting better. Oil's going down, gas is going down, eggs went down, groceries are going down, interest rates are going. Money. That doesn't affect me. I still go out and do the things that I do to make a dollar. So I'm not involved in the stock market. I don't own stocks, I don't give a shit about stocks.
Speaker 2:I think one of your Facebook followers were like the uneducated red states. This is what happens. Basically, they don't know how to read or write. I think we spell with crayons, according to her or him I can't remember what it was and basically just belittle the whole bunch of people. And I told you this before.
Speaker 2:I don't got time to keyboard warrior with those people, but I can tell you right now that guy wouldn't say that shit if we were face-to-face. But I can tell you right now that guy wouldn't say that shit if we were face to face. So I don't know what point he was making other than red people are stupid and only blue people are smart. And I guess the tariffs will work or they won't work. I know that a ton of countries are calling Donald Trump right now and saying, hey, we'll either drop all of our tariffs and we'll go zero tariff for zero tariff, or we'll go matching tariffs and a lot of countries are okay with that too, which is just renegotiating trade deals. It's like you said the other night we've had tariffs in place for years. It's not like this is a brand new thing. What people are freaking out about is we want matching tariffs for people, and I guess that's a bad thing.
Speaker 1:So one of the things that I've also heard, a lot of people are of the impression and by people I'm talking about, typically on the right that all these quote unquote jobs coming back, typically on the right, that all these quote unquote jobs coming back. And I struggle with that because there is a certain amount of and, like you just said, no one wants to hear over and over. You're just stupid, you're just uninformed. Nobody wants to hear that, whether it's on this show or in the public, wherever Facebook, wherever no one wants to hear that, whether it's on this show or in the public, wherever Facebook, wherever no one wants to hear that all the time. But there are some fundamentals that people have to be able to understand and it's like I have to have people understand that a lot of jobs that may come back are going to be automated. They will not be people, but you don't know that. No, I do know that.
Speaker 2:I do know that, but you don't know that.
Speaker 1:We're not going to argue that, because that's what's going to happen. Automation trumps people.
Speaker 2:If a machine can do the job of 10 people. Somebody has to build the machines that are building shit right, yeah. So what you're saying is we're just going to bring a whole bunch of machines over that are going to build the machines, that are going to build the machines, that are going to build the machines. That's not what I said at all.
Speaker 1:I haven't said at any point that 100% of jobs will be replaced by machines. I've never said that, I will never say that, because machines will have to be designed by people, they'll have to be maintained by people, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 2:So I've never said that.
Speaker 1:There's no 100%, so don't even try that with me.
Speaker 2:Try that with other people not with me, even if the factories that come back just need machines, that's going to create jobs, because people are going to need to build those machines that are built in the cars, correct?
Speaker 1:Let's say, john, that there's a factory shop that previously would have had 4,000 workers. Let's throw in a random number out there. Yeah, when that Round numbers, they've been gone for a decade and a half, whatever, again a nice round number. Yeah, that factory or shop comes back. How many of those jobs come back with it? Do you think it's 1,000 of the 4,000? Do you think it's 25%, because I don't think it's even that high. Or do you think it's more?
Speaker 2:Well, I mean it could be, I don't. I mean we're talking about speculating a whole bunch of stuff right now, right? So like, let's just be fair and say that 25% of them come back, so that way we can kind of play your hand instead of playing my hand. So 25% of the jobs come back.
Speaker 1:Is that bad? I don't think that's inherently bad. I think that there's certainly going to be. I mean I think the number will be. I think that the I think it skews. Worse, though, I think it skews more towards automation.
Speaker 2:We're just, we're playing devil's advocate. I'm giving you a little bit, you got to give me a little bit, right.
Speaker 1:So let's say the 25% come back, then we have to be happy with that, it's not zero, but it's certainly not all those jobs going to be back.
Speaker 2:So how many factories need to come back to get us to the 4,000 jobs that were lost or that used to be, that are no longer?
Speaker 1:So now we're at 20 and a quarter.
Speaker 2:So you need four factories to come back right to build things in the United States. So that's feasible. That 4,000 jobs could be created by factory work coming back to the United States. It wouldn't be everybody in one factory, it would be spread out over several different factories, but those same 4,000 people are going to get jobs, correct?
Speaker 1:So okay. So let's now keep in mind, now that's of the 16,000 that left If we had four factories, that the four hypothetical factories shut down. That's four times the 4,000.
Speaker 2:It's not just, and not everything is going to be made automated by machines.
Speaker 1:I don't think that I mean not everything. No, no, john, I don't think anyone is arguing that. Okay.
Speaker 2:No one is arguing, so some jobs that come back are going to be people making shit.
Speaker 1:The question is, if I've got that 4,000-person factory, what if it's not 1,000? What if it's more like 40 workers, or even 400 workers? What if it's only 10% coming back? Is that enough? So let's.
Speaker 2:Let's put this in perspective, because I think if we're building cars in a factory that makes cars, you're going to need more than 40 workers right Now. If you're in a sewing shop that's building tennis shoes or widgets would be a better description Maybe you only need 40 workers. But the point is, is all of those factories come back to create jobs? You might not be in the same factory you left a decade ago. You might be in a different factory doing something else for a different company. It's still a job, still a job. So you can't say that. You can't say that. No, even if 75% of all of the jobs that were lost a decade ago come back, isn't that good.
Speaker 1:So if you could get seven. If you could get 75% of the jobs back over the last from whether a decade or two, however you want to count it if you could get that back, that would be an absolute win. I am telling you to a 100% certainty and I will stand on this, and you can take as long as you like for me to be proven correct.
Speaker 2:We'll revisit this. Yeah, we'll revisit it. I mean, I'm three months into his presidency right now.
Speaker 1:I'm telling you to a 100% certainty there is no 75% return rate that's not happening.
Speaker 2:But you can't be 100% certain about anything. You'd be surprised. No, I can.
Speaker 1:You'd be surprised.
Speaker 2:You can't be. It's impossible. You could say 99% if you want, and then you'll get me on board. You're not going to say 100% because there's a 1% chance of anything happening.
Speaker 1:John, there is not a 1% chance of things happening, because you've got the ability to look at the way automation has changed. You've got to look at why certain factories left in the first place, right? One of our Facebookers asked about sweatshops recently and what we haven't been paying attention to is that, yes, although sweatshops still exist, how many of those sweatshops have been replaced by robot armies? That's the part we don't talk about, john.
Speaker 2:in this country, we don't talk about that, maybe in the United States, what not not in other countries? Man, they're still making shit in fucking back rooms. That's why there's, that's why you have slaves still on this planet.
Speaker 1:I'm not oh gosh, I'm not again. I'm not saying that every single sweatshop that ever existed no longer exists I am not saying that. Listen to listen to me in very clear english, john, please I I'm speaking very clear and I'm using your words against you.
Speaker 2:You said with a hundred percent certainty things weren't gonna happen.
Speaker 1:Happen that way.
Speaker 2:You can't be 100% certain, because there's inevitables, man, there are things that aren't going to go your way.
Speaker 1:John, I am telling you to a 100% certainty that the hypothetical 75% return rate that you asked about is not happening.
Speaker 2:Listen, we can argue all day about it if you would like. If you would like to get stuck on this one thing, me and you can argue all day about it. Just because I don't view it the way that you view it doesn't make you right or me wrong it makes me right and that's okay it doesn't I recognize your?
Speaker 1:right to be wrong. I absolutely recognize you're right to be wrong yeah, well, I have to recognize your right to be wrong I mean, if you're going to do any you know amount of you know predictions, then at least base it on something other than oh, I feel this because there's a 1% chance of that, all right.
Speaker 2:Well, listen, one of us is going to be right, one of us is going to be wrong, and in four years we can revisit this conversation and if you were 100% right, I'll let you know you were 100% right, but if you weren't, then you have to admit that you don't know everything within 100% certainty, because that's not the way the fucking world works.
Speaker 1:I am telling you no no, no, you're not allowed to say that. I said that everything is 100%. I never said that. I've never said that.
Speaker 2:You don't get to say that. I said we're talking about the 75%. Right now You're saying with 100% certainty 75% of these jobs aren't coming back.
Speaker 1:Right, that's what you said that's correct, right, and I'm also saying, now, switching over to the sweatshop question, you mentioned that, okay, so on to the next thing. On to the sweatshop issue specifically, I also want to be clear that I'm not saying that every single sweatshop that ever existed no longer exists, because I don't think you heard me say that. I think that you heard me saying that every single sweatshop that ever existed no longer exists, because I don't think you heard me say that. I think that you heard me saying that every single sweatshop had been replaced by robot sweatshops, and I'm not saying that. I'm saying that there are many sweatshops former sweatshops that have been converted to fully robotic sweatshops.
Speaker 2:Well, I mean, they wouldn't be sweatshops anymore if they're robotic.
Speaker 1:Well, okay, well, whatever I'm just saying. So what used to be a sweatshop is now almost fully automated. Yes, there are still humans in the building, but there's so much automation there, and so what I'm saying also is that we do not talk about that reality in this country. Thank you.