Whiskey & Donuts
Whiskey & Donuts is where sharp analysis - and maybe a shot or two of speculation - meets unfiltered conversation, tackling politics, culture, and the issues that matter with a mix of logic, humor, and straight talk. No echo chambers, no nonsense -just real discussions with a side of wit and a strong pour of common sense.
Whiskey & Donuts
Robots are coming for your job - or are they?
This episode peels back the layers of America’s automation boom to ask: how many humans does one robot really replace? From auto factories to woodworking shops, we look briefly at the real ratios - not the headline hype.
And what about the cost? Some of these small machines run $500K a pop and still need constant updates. Meanwhile, skilled tradespeople are still in demand, still showing up, and still building the backbone of America.
As John says: "When the robots break, they don’t call Silicon Valley - they call me."
Subscribe and weigh in: is automation the end of labor, or just the next chapter? (Recorded April 8, 2025)
Subscribe, follow, and pour yourself another round of straight talk.
What used to be a sweatshop is now almost fully automated. Yes, there are still humans in the building, but there's so much automation there, and so what I'm saying also is that we do not talk about that reality in this country. I mean, just as again round numbers, how many jobs or how many humans can be replaced by one robot, you would say at a minimum, safely. Would you agree that three or four humans call it three just because you shift work could be replaced by one robot? Would you agree with that? Or?
Speaker 2:no, I guess it would depend on what we're talking about, like what is the robot building?
Speaker 1:the robot is. The robot is putting. He's putting a widget into a widget receiver.
Speaker 2:That's what he might even be able to argue that it would replace 10 humans.
Speaker 2:That's possible.
Speaker 2:Exactly Again, like if you're saying, hey, this robot's building a car, I don't know if one robot can build a whole car without a human helping it, so there might be less in a situation like that. You know what I mean. So it would have to really depend on what the robot's building and how many robots are building that one particular car and how many humans are building that one particular car. But if you're talking about automated machines that build chain, right where it used to take three, four humans to make a 10 foot length of chain because of you know forges and all of that shit 10 foot length of chain because of you know forges and all of that shit and now you have one automated machine building 300 lengths of chain or 300 feet of chain in a minute and you have one human standing in front of that machine to make sure it doesn't jam. So yes, I would agree. You have to just talk about what you're talking about. It can't just be one robot replacing three humans and that's just the standard, because I wouldn't agree with that.
Speaker 1:Of course not. So the thing takes, whatever the thing is. Let's say the thing is assembling. I used to work in cabinets. So let's say it takes three humans, although we know that you work in cabinets too, so you have a knowledge there as well. Let's say it takes three humans to do one cabinet, but the robot by itself can do that one cabinet and can do it twice as fast. So it takes three humans, three hours, so one hour per person, to construct a cabinet, a given cabinet, not all the cabinets, just one specific type of cabinet, a given cabinet, not all the cabinets, just one specific type of cabinet. The robot can do the same job in one hour as opposed to the three hours. So it's actually 60% faster, 70% faster.
Speaker 1:So in that particular case, then, the robot has fully replaced the three humans, only, actually, in this particular case, has replaced nine humans, because it would have taken three, three and three to do that work. But then also, let's reduce that a little bit. We're going to reduce, even though it looks like just one-to-one, it's going to be one robot, nine people. Well, someone had to maintain the robot, plug the robot in, make sure the robot didn't get off cue, whatever. So we're going to reduce the robot, plug the robot in, make sure the robot didn't get off cue, whatever. So we're going to reduce the robot's actual productivity by about half because humans have to make up the difference there. That's still a lot of automation is what it comes down to, even with you know. We take all those things into consideration, whether it's design.
Speaker 2:So who's going to pay for all of this automation? Because I can tell you, as a business owner, if I had to hire three guys to build cabinets for me, that might build cabinets a little bit slower than the new fancy robot that you're talking about. That you're talking about. I don't have half a million dollars because I would imagine half a million dollars is going to be a cheap robot to build a full cabinet. We're talking about not just a box, we're talking about. This is your scenario a full cabinet. Half a million dollars is going to be cheap. So how much revenue does that one cabinet have to make me and how long is that going to pay off? Right, how long is it going to take that company to pay for that half a million dollar robot? Because in a year, just like a vcr, uh, that half a million dollar robot's going to be obsolete because the new robot's going to be on the market. So how much money does that robot need to produce to pay for that half a million dollars, versus my three employees that build cabinets a little bit slower than I'm just paying an hourly rate. So money is a thing, because that's what this is all about. It's about making money. So not everybody has Bill Gates money or George Soros money, so we can't just be putting automated robots in every factory, because not everybody has that kind of money.
Speaker 2:Now, if you're talking about you know factory workers like ford and chevy and dodge and tesla, and you know car companies, then then for sure, or apple, apple or IBM or whatever, those people are going to be able to dump the billions of dollars into a business to do that, right. But then again, now you're talking about huge factories. You're not talking about building widgets, you're talking about the factories that, sure, a lot of it's going to be automated, but those people are still going to employ thousands of people, not just 40. 40 people is not going to run a car company. That's just, that's not. It's not feasible.
Speaker 2:So again, you're painting with a broad brush and you're giving very specific incidences where guys like me that work with their hands. And you know, god forbid, according to some of your Facebooker people, we're just idiots and nobody wants a factory job, right, nobody wants to work with their hands anymore. But I'll tell you what, when those sons of bitches need something built, they call people like me. So those people we're not going to be able to dump millions of dollars into a business to just buy robots. They're going to have to make robots a hell of a lot cheaper, and they're not. We're not at that point. We don't have the infrastructure for that shit. So you know, you guys can beat that drum all you want and you know, maybe it'll work out for you, maybe it won't. We'll see in a couple of years.
Speaker 1:All right.