Ep 15: Guelph real estate weekly sales update May 1-17, 2025

May 1- 17 sales update:

There were 100 units changing hands in the Guelph real estate market during the period of May 1-17. This translates to about 5.9 sales per day. Although on the lighter end, it's getting very close to an acceptable average. 

Here are previous May sales numbers:

May 2020: 5.0 houses per day average (*early COVID 19 pandemic)

May 2021: 9.0

May 2022: 6.2

May 2023: 6.5

May 2024: 6.1

May 1-17, 2025: 5.9

What sold in the Guelph real estate market during the period?

• 26 were condo/ townhouse/ stacked townhouse (properties with fees)
• 74 were detached and semi detached (properties without fees or "freehold")

Condos/ townhouses/ stacked townhouses:

Of the 26 units that sold:

$365,500 was the low price

$1,080,000 was the high price

Overall average was just over $578,000 (trend is decreasing)

Total homes sold at an average of 97.1% of the original asking

2 of the 26 units sold over asking (8%)

1 sold at the asking (4%)

23 sold under the asking (88%)

This is consistent with our predictions for this segment, in particular the stacked townhouse segment that is strugging with oversupply. The supply should increase over the next few months as warmer weather returns and many projects complete. Ths will continue for years with a number of projects in all areas of Guelph coming to completion. Of course, this isn't EVERY unit, it's just overall. 

If you're a buyer in this segment, you have more power than you've had in years to negotiate. However, sellers still have expectations on sale prices vs recent comparables.

The overall % of asking remains consistent at arounf 97% of asking. This means that on average, there is 3% negotiation room on the asking prior. However, it's to be noted that this is an average and not an expectation. The % asking is also calculated from the last posted listing price, not the original listing price.

Detached/ semi detached freehold

Of the 74 units that sold:

$450,000 was the low price

$1,961,300 was the high price

Overall average was $937,000

Total homes sold at an average of 98.9% of the last listed asking price

26 of the 74 sold over asking (35%)

9 sold at the asking (12%)

39 sold under the asking

You can always get touch with Beth and Ryan Waller on their website

Transcript

Welcome to the Guelph Real Estate Report podcast with your host and Guelph realtor, Ryan Waller. This podcast is designed to provide information for those buying and selling homes in the Guelph area to make the process more informative, fun, and a little less stressful. Now on with the show! Hey everyone, it's Ryan and welcome back to episode number 15 of the Guelph Real Estate Report podcast. I am your host, Ryan Waller, and I work in Guelph Real Estate with my wife, Beth. Today we're going to take a look at the sales from the period of May 1st to May 17th of this year. If you follow along with my market updates, you'll know that the period of January to April has been a slow time and slow from a transaction perspective, because less buyers and less sellers were coming together to complete the deal. And with less transactions, it means less overall dollar volume in the market, less units sold, and overall just less activity. But it appears into May that we are changing a little bit, and sales volumes for the month of May are increasing slightly year over year. Every week I publish a blog post that talks about updates in the graph Real Estate market. And this week we looked at what has been happening for that period of May 1st to 17th and what changes we see. And so let's go through that in the month of May for the period of May 1st to 17th. We have had 100 sales in Guelph real estate. That would be 26 condo townhouse transactions and 74 detached homes or semi-detached homes selling this month total of 100. If you take that number divided by the number of days, we get just under six houses per day. And if you compare that to Prior May's. You'll find in 2020 it was five per day. 2021 nine 2022 6.2 2023 6.5 2024 6.1. And here we are this month 5.9. And so yes, we are still under the previous three years, but we're not far off at all. If you were to take the same 5.9 trend and add it to the remainder of May, we're going to roll up somewhere in the 185 ish homes sold, which actually is in line with, uh, prior years. So, uh, you know, 2024, we had 188 2023, 202 2022, 191. So we actually are in line seasonally, which is the closest we've come, uh, since February of just the market picking up to previous year's numbers. And I think there's a little more confidence in the market. I think that, uh, a change in, uh, Canadian government, a change in the messaging coming from the US about tariffs, uh, have kind of fallen on the back burner a little bit, and people have a little more confidence than they did three months ago. It's helping the real estate market. If we look into the specifics of the two segments, um, in the condo segment of the 26 units that sold, you can still get some deals out there. Uh, 365,000 was the low sale price so far this month 1,000,080? Uh, a stacked townhouse on, uh, Cardigan Street was the high. The overall average is 578,000 in this segment. And it is declining. And this is something we've talked about over and over and over again. I still see it declining a little bit further just because there is so much supply. Buyers have so much choice, which is great for them. And as a result, the prices are coming down. The total homes in this segment, uh, continue to sell at about 97% of the last posted list price. So simply simply meaning that if you are buying in the condo townhouse segment, you do have a little more room to negotiate. It's not a mathematical calculation where every house should sell at 97.1% of the asking, but on average, the sentiment is that there is room there to negotiate. Two homes sold over the asking price. One sold at the asking price and 23 sold under the asking price. That's 88%. If you're a buyer in this segment, you have more negotiation power than you've had in quite a while. You have more negotiation power in this segment than you do over the detached segment, and you have a lot of options. And so if you're a buyer, in particular a first time buyer, you can really negotiate one unit versus another because there are so many options out there for you. Sellers will be trying to get your attention. If you look at the detached and semi-detached freehold segment. So that means a detached house or a semi house without any fees, as mentioned 78 sorry, 74 units sold here, 450,000. In the West End was a low price. A million 961 is the high price. That was actually our listing on a Powell Street in Guelph. That's Exhibition Park. Overall average of this segment is $937,000, and they sold at the average price of 98.9 of the last listed price. So it looks like there's a little bit of room to negotiate. Still on detached, but not a lot. And I would say based on our experience in the market, that is about right. 26 of the 74 detached and semi-detached this month have sold over the asking price. That's 35%. And if you compare that to the condo segment, um, it was only 8%. So a significant difference. Nine sold at the asking price in 39 sold under the asking price of just over half. This segment continues to be very strong, and we have seen it over and over again in our own listings homes priced between 750 and 950, especially in around the downtown core, are moving very quickly. And oftentimes, believe it or not, there is more than one buyer interested. So there are a lot of buyers in this segment trending upwards, as in, uh, they are going from their first house, which may be a condo, to their next house, which could be a house between 750 and 950. They are willing to compete because they do have a bit of equity in their existing home. Or have family help as well. Some noteworthy trends that we see as mentioned. Detached under 950. Still moving pretty quickly. Sales over $1 million were starting to see a bit of a resurgence here. And, um, it's interesting because this segment for the longest time tended to have, uh, not as many sales as you would expected. Typically they range between 10 and 20% of the total volume. Uh, they were down at the low end of that range for the longest time. And we're starting to see a bit of a bump up, uh, in that range as well. So in the detached segment, we had 21 of the 74 selling at $1 million or more. So that would probably be quick. Math would probably be, um, 25% or so, which is above the range. And so people are starting to come back to this segment. Lastly, uh, holding offers. Uh, we. This is sort of a weird thing that we have started to see and come back again where, uh, agents in particular, agents probably from out of town. Kitchener loves this strategy, where you list the house at a low number, a low price, and you say, I'm going to review all offers on this house in a week. I can consider it like an auction. This is the starting bid. We have no intention of closing here, but this is where we're starting at. We're trying to get as many people through as we can. We're trying to create a bidding war. And we're hoping that by the end of the seven days, we'll have a offer that is suitable and potentially over the market value if we we have a lot of interest. This strategy works really well when there's not a lot of supply and there's big demand. However, when you get to a market like this where there is more supply, buyers have choices and they're not going to wait around in most cases for seven days to have the seller review their offer on this one specific house when there are six other houses that they may be interested in. So if you are considering this strategy as a seller, give us a call. Because depending on where you are and what you're selling, it may be shooting yourself in the foot. The, um, there is one last one actually stacked townhouses. So despite the fact that, um, there is more supply coming to the market for sellers, more supply means lower prices. So depending on where it is and what you're selling, again, odds are pretty good that your stacked townhouse is new, newish, and there are a lot more of these coming to completion. So just be careful because, uh, there are a lot of supply out there. As I mentioned earlier, if you're a buyer right now, you're loving the stacked townhouse segment because it's bringing prices down in totality. The other thing it is doing, though, is bringing down or, sorry, widening the gap between, uh, the condo market and the detached segment. Because if there's a lot of supply in the condo segment, you're bringing down prices there and people get in at lower prices than they have in years. But the other half of that equation is the detached segment, which seems to be more competitive and not really decreasing at all right now. So there is a widening gap there. If you do have any questions on the Guelph real estate market, you're always welcome to give us a call. You can find us on our website at BethandRyan.ca where you can book a phone call, book an appointment, send us an email. Talk to you soon.