Ep 18: Guelph real estate weekly sales update July 1-15, 2025

Guelph real estate sales July 1-15, 2025

July statistically tends to start the slow decline in sales for the remainder of the calendar year. As families tend to go on vacation in July and August, transaction volume declines to less than average sales per day.

Here are previous July sales numbers:

July 2020: 9.0 houses per day average

July 2021: 6.7

July 2022: 4.2

July 2023: 5.2

July 2024: 4.7

July 1-15, 2025: 4.9

From this, you can see that July 2025 seems to be trending ahead of 2024, for now. If this can hold, it looks like we could be in for a change in short term trend

What sold in the Guelph real estate market during the period?

• 20 were condo/ townhouse/ stacked townhouse (properties with fees)
• 54 were detached and semi detached (properties without fees or "freehold")

Condos/ townhouses/ stacked townhouses:

Of the 20 units that sold:

$401,000 was the low price

$1,200,000 was the high price

Overall average was just over $620,000 (trend is neutral, without the $1.2M sale the average would be $589K)

Total homes sold at an average of 97.6% of the original asking

2 of the 20 units sold over asking (10%)

2 sold at the asking (10%)

18 sold under the asking (80%)

Not much has changed in this segment over the past months, with the average price hovering slightly below or above $600,000. Most homes here end up selling at 98% of the last list price.

To give some perspective: there are over 250 units in this segment at the moment, and on average there are 1.8 that sell per day. Which means, on any given day you have a 1 in 125 selling your home in this segment. Good data for buyers!

If you're a buyer in this segment, you have more power than you've had in years to negotiate. However, sellers still have expectations on sale prices vs recent comparables.

Detached/ semi detached freehold

Of the 54 units that sold:

$402,000 was the low price

$1,399,900 was the high price

Overall average was $868,000 (decrease from June $924K)

Total homes sold at an average of 98.3% of the last listed asking price

7 of the 54 sold over asking (13%)

4 sold at the asking (7%)

43 sold under the asking (80%)

Higher end segment seems to be stronger than recent past

Continuing on a new trend that we noticed in June, homes over $1M seem be gaining steam. 31% of the sales made in June were over $1M and July is currently at 24% for detached homes. This number historically moves in the range of 15-20% of total sales, meaning there is increased buyer demand here as of recent.

One trend we've noticed are "move up buyers", those selling their first home to upsize to their next home. It's a great time for this, because the house that they're selling (likely between $750-$900K) is in a faster moving market than what they're buying ($1M+). This mean means they can take advantage of selling at a reasonable price, as well as negotiating harder on the purchase.

Downtown area detached and semi-detached still remain strong, as there are some smaller homes that make for great first time buyers, downsizers or investor options.

Have questions on the Guelph real estate market?

As always, you can get in touch with Beth and Ryan Waller to book an appointment, have a chat or get a valuation of your home.

You can also get more info on the local market from these sources:

Guelph real estate podcast

You can always get touch with Beth and Ryan Waller on their website

Transcript

Summary

 In this episode, we discuss the real estate market in Guelph for the first half of July. While there is usually a slow decline in sales starting in July, this year saw a slight rebound towards the end of June that has continued into July. There have been 74 houses sold so far this month, with an average price of $868,000 for detached homes and $619,000 for condos. However, the majority of homes are still selling for under asking price, indicating

 Transcription

 Welcome to the Guelph Real Estate Report podcast with your host and Guelph realtor, Ryan Waller. This podcast is designed to provide information for those buying and selling homes in the Guelph area to make the process more informative, fun, and a little less stressful. Now on with the show. Hey everyone! Welcome back to the Guelph Real Estate Report podcast. My name is Ryan Waller and I work in Guelph Real Estate with my wife Beth. This is episode number 18 where we will talk about the sales in Guelph real estate for the period of July 1st to 15th, 2025. First, if you are listening to this, there is a blog version which gets into more detail on our website. Beth and Ryan and we just posted a YouTube video that we do for Guelph today, every month that gives an overview of the first half of the year in commentary, a little less stats and data, and a little more boots on the ground. What's happening out there in the market? We did see a slight rebound towards the end of June in the real estate market here in Guelph, and it looks like it has continued into July. Starting in July, going from July 1st all the way until December 31st is a slow decline. If you can picture real estate sales by month, they go from slow in January and sort of ramp up to a peak in May, sometimes into June, before they slowly come off that peak and then ramp back down again. So it's almost like, um, almost like an image of a mountain where it goes up at the top and then comes down again, and we are on the way down the mountain as we move closer to December. From this point onwards, month after month, the volumes go down. That doesn't necessarily mean by any means that the prices go down. It just means that there's less activity, less people shopping, and overall less transactions. We do see a bit of a blip in September between Labor Day and Thanksgiving. For those people who are back in their school routines and want to move before Christmas, so that's really the last hurrah or the second spring market before we get the winter slowdown. Today we are going to talk about specifically July and what we see as going on. And July is an interesting month every year because as school is out and kids and families go on vacation, they tend to look at real estate less and on average, over a full year in Guelph, about five houses sell a day, and that takes into account some of the slower months, doing less than five and some of the busier months, doing over five and working out to an average of five. So as we get into July, we tend to fall below the average of five. And so far month to date. The first two weeks in we are at 4.9 sales per day, so we're pretty much on the average, which is surprising. It's actually ahead of 2024, but it is encouraging as well that there's more activity going on in the market. It could very well be that sellers are sort of coming down from their idea of what they believe their house is worth. Um, and buyers are being a little more realistic in what they think they can get a house for. Both sides had an extreme, I would say, back in May and June, where, um, sellers were asking prices that were a few years old and buyers were starting to test who was desperate and offer really low prices out there in the market. And I think both sides now are realizing that they need to be a little more realistic. And so I think we're starting to see transaction volume rebound a little bit. Um, nothing earth shattering, but definitely off of the lows. There have been a total of 74 houses sold from the period of July 1st to 15th. 54 of those in the detached um home segment. No fees and 20 in the condo segment. Within the detached segment, there was a low price 402,000 on a house downtown, and there was a high price of 1399 900. Uh, in Courtright East, um, on the east side of Gordon Street, and that would be south of Stone road. Overall, the average was 868,000. Uh, it was higher in June. Um, because there were quite a few homes selling over $1 million. Quite a few actually selling over $1 million in June. Uh, total homes sold at an average of 98.3 of the last listed asking price. So still room to negotiate on detached homes. No doubt about it. Of the 54 that sold, seven of them were over. The asking for were at the asking and the remainder 43 or 80% sold under the asking. So when 80% of homes are selling under the asking, you know there is room to negotiate. One trend that we're starting to notice here is that there is a bit of a surge in the $1 million plus segment. We noticed this in June. We made a note of it. 31% of the homes sold were of the detached homes that sold were over $1 million. This segment has been sluggish over the last little while, but it looks like it's picking up a bit of steam. So far this month, we're sitting at, uh, 24% selling over $1 million. And this, I think, is coming for a variety of reasons. One of them is that move up buyers. So those people that are in 7 or 800, $900,000 homes are starting to see that their segments are still moving, but what they're buying into is a bit sluggish. So there's value to be had there. They can sell a little bit higher and negotiate a bit a bit harder on the home they're buying. So that may be where it's coming from. Um, but it is something we're keeping our eyes on In the condo segment. Um, there were 20 units that sold here. The low price was 401,000. The high price was 1.2 million. That was in Saint George's Park at the Stewart, um, condos there. And the overall average was 620,000. If you take out that one high sale, 1.2 million, the actual average was 589,000. So that one sale is swinging the average, uh, significantly. Total homes in the segment sold at 97.6% of the last asking. Two of them sold, over two of them sold at the asking, and the remaining 18 out of 20 sold at under the asking, which is 80%. Not much has changed in this segment. Uh, we've talked about this recently where I actually I talked about it in the recent video I just did, where this segment sells about 1 to 1.5 units per day. And there are currently about 250 on the market, so you have to make yours more attractive if you want to sell it in this market, because there are a lot of them. We rolled into the end of June at 9% decline in transactions. I have a whole video that I just posted, um, on YouTube with some commentary on that and the gap between buyers and sellers and their expectations. And it looks like we may pick up a little bit of ground in July, but now, with the biggest volume months behind us, it's unlikely we're going to move into the green. And I suspect that the remainder of 2025 will continue in the same trend that we're seeing slightly below last year, slightly lower prices, nothing really exciting and potentially even more volume than we have now. We're approaching 600 houses on the market in Guelph real estate, which I don't think we've ever had. Ahad, and there are sellers that are starting to take their houses off the market because they're frustrated with the way things are going, in hopes that in the future it's going to get better. But and I've talked about this at the end of 2023, we talked about the same thing where if all of those people do all of that sort of thing, they're all probably going to come back at the same time. So the problem is just delayed a little bit further. It's probably going to happen again. So I do not anticipate any big movements in price upwards over the next six months. As always, if you need wealth real estate advice, you can listen to more of this podcast and give us a subscribe. Read us on our blog at bethandryan.ca. You can also book a meeting with us if you want to talk wealth real estate. It's a popular choice for people, and if you want to watch our videos, give us a subscribe on YouTube. We publish these regularly and, um, your support would be nice. Thank you. Thanks for listening. We'll talk to you next time.