Ep 19: July 2025 Guelph real estate sales

July 1-31 sales update:

July statistically tends to start the slow decline in sales for the remainder of the calendar year. As families tend to go on vacation in July and August, transaction volume declines to less than average sales per day.

Here are previous July sales numbers:

July 2020: 9.0 houses per day average

July 2021: 6.7

July 2022: 4.2

July 2023: 5.2

July 2024: 4.7

July 2025: 5.2

From this, you can see that July 2025 outperformed 2024. But, it’s not like it’s a huge month vs prior years. It falls more in line with 2023.

What sold in the Guelph real estate market during the period?

• 50 were condo/ townhouse/ stacked townhouse (properties with fees)
• 112 were detached and semi detached (properties without fees or “freehold”)

Condos/ townhouses/ stacked townhouses:

Of the 50 units that sold:

$360,000 was the low price (Onward Willow condo)

$1,675,000 was the high price (Downtown Guelph condo)

Overall average was just over $609,743 (trend is slightly dow, without the $1.675M sale the average would be $588K)

Total homes sold at an average of 97.8% of the original asking- in line with prior sales

7 of the 50 units sold over asking (14%)

3 sold at the asking (6%)

40 sold under the asking (80%)

Detached/ semi detached freehold

Of the 112 units that sold:

$402,000 was the low price (Dovercliffe)

$1,625,000 was the high price (Downtown Guelph)

Overall average was $861,000 (decrease from June $924K)

Total homes sold at an average of 98.3% of the last listed asking price

19 of the 112 sold over asking (17%)

10 sold at the asking (9%)

83 sold under the asking (74%)

Need more info on the Guelph real estate market? Get in touch with Beth and Ryan Waller at https://bethandryan.ca

You can always get touch with Beth and Ryan Waller on their website

Transcript

Welcome to the Guelph Real Estate Report podcast with your host and Guelph realtor, Ryan Waller. This podcast is designed to provide information for those buying and selling homes in the Guelph area to make the process more informative, fun, and a little less stressful. Now on with the show. Hey everyone! Welcome back to the Guelph Real Estate Report podcast. This is episode number 19. I am Ryan Waller and I work in Guelph Real Estate with my wife Beth. Today we are going to talk about the sales numbers that are in for the period of July 1st to 31st, and usually when we get into the summer months, volume tends to slow down. In fact, after June, pretty much every month after that is a slow trickle down of unit sales into December. But not this year. So far this year, each month we've been trailing behind 2024. It started off really poorly in February versus last year. Then March we were -17% versus last year and we slowly started to crawl our way out. April was -11, may was minus seven, June was minus three. Until we get to July. And instead of being in the minus like the other months, suddenly July was plus 11% in transactions versus last year. And we're not talking a huge number here. We're talking about 15 houses, not a huge number, but it's enough to be plus 11% versus last year. So there were 162 transactions that happened in July, which gives us about an average of about 5.2 per day. Last year was 4.7, July 2023 was 5.2. So about the same July 2022 was 4.2. July 2021 was 6.7 and July 2020 was nine. Now, the 2020 is interesting, just because we're kind of getting over the big hump of Covid lockdowns at that point, and so people rushed out to buy houses. But overall, the message is that this July was pretty solid compared to some of the other months we've seen, which is surprising to me. Now, there were 162 sales. As mentioned. 50 of those were the condo townhouse market or properties with fees, and 112 of them were detached and semi-detached homes that don't have fees. Of the condos and stacked townhouses the 50 sold, the lowest was in Onward Willow. I think it was on Ajax. Sold for 360,000. The most expensive was a downtown Guelph condo. I think it was at 71. Wyndham at 1,675,000. So overall, the average price, um, in July was 609,000. I know some of you don't. I've heard from you. I know you don't like talking about the average price because of this exact reason. Without that 1.67 mil condo. Uh, the average would have been 588, so it propped it up significantly. But I would say it's safe to say the average is still around $600,000 in that segment. Um, of the homes that sold, they sold at about 97.8% of the last posted asking price. So if a seller did take a couple of price reductions, the number is based off of what the last price was before it sold. So that's 97.87 of them sold over the asking 14%. Three of them sold at the asking, which is 6%, and the remaining 40 of 50 or 80% sold under the asking. We did see a bit of an uptick in the $1 million plus segment in condos in July. I mean, it's not many of them. There were only four. But it is interesting because it does talk a little bit more about what we're starting to see, which is that higher end segment is starting to move again. I'll get to that in a few minutes. I know we keep talking about this, but the condo segment still has a glut there. At the time of recording this 237 units for sale in this segment, and an average of 1.6 of them selling per day. So if you are selling a condo or a townhouse right now, you are competing with 236 others at varying price points, various locations, various layouts, and you have to make your stand out. Whether that's better photography, whether that's staging, whether that's a better price. You have to stand out. And we will continue to talk about this because I think this situation is going to get worse. I think we're going to see even more and more developments finish and more supply of this segment coming on the market, because in many cases, this segment has a very specific buyer and it's not for everyone. So we'll talk about that ongoing. But that is a challenge we still continue to see here. I don't see this segment changing anytime soon. Okay, over to the detached segment. 112 units sold there. 402 was the low. I think that is on Conroy Crescent in Dover cliff. 1,625,000 was the high that's downtown. Overall average was 861,000. It is slightly declining. Uh June was 924,000. So there is a slight decline, but I mean, month over month, it's not worth, uh, worrying too much about. Total homes sold an average of 98.3% of the last asking price, 19 of the 112 sold over the asking. That 17% ten sold at the asking. That's 9%, and the remaining 83 of the 112 sold under the asking. That is 74% of the homes sold under the asking. We talked about this about a month ago, and, um, it is looking like the trend is sticking around. The higher end segment seems to be getting a little bit stronger. And so Beth and I have always been talking to clients in the past couple of years about how if you have a house to sell over $1 million, it is struggling a little bit. And houses under a million specifically detached around the downtown were moving quicker. However, it seems to be changing because there are more and more houses that are coming on the market under a million, saturating that market a little bit. And now it looks like people are moving up to the 1 million plus segment faster than they have been in the past. Um, 31% of those sales in June were above $1 million, 31%. So a third, um, July is at 21%. And historically, we've seen this move anywhere between 10 to 20%. So to be 21% in July and 31 in June is interesting. So the trend continues. We'll continue to watch that as long as it's above 20%. We're starting to see a bit of a change here. And there could be any number of reasons why, specifically with us and our clientele. We're looking at a lot of move up buyers who, uh, traditionally wouldn't consider looking at that segment. And they're selling in the seven, eight, $900,000 segment, moving up to a million or more. Quite a few of those are happening. And the other thing could be that the government did announce some changes to the, uh, down payments required. Uh, it used to be if you were buying a home price at $1 million or more, you were required to have 20% down. Well, they changed that. In mid-December last year, they announced they being the government announced the change, that the 20% down rule now applies to homes over $1.5 million instead of $1 million. So someone who is looking to buy a $1.2 million house, uh, last summer had to have, um, $240,000 or 20% available to them as a down payment. This year, it's about half of that. So a lot more people can't afford to get into more expensive homes. The downside, of course, is that they have a much larger mortgage. But, um, it is allowing people to make some move. So maybe we're starting to see that being taken advantage of as well. So even though July did make up some of the losses in sales volumes in, um, some of the prior months, we're still down year over year on inventory. We're still -6 to 7% overall in transaction volume. And why is that? Why are less people making deals? Well, we like to try to talk about it in the most simple terms, which is people aren't coming together because they can't agree on the terms, which in 99% of the times it's the price. Sellers are still wanting prices from two years ago. They have a hard time going season over season and not being able to sell their house at the price they want, because for years sellers had been able to. Buyers, on the other hand, read headlines, articles that talk about how the market is coming down and are putting in offers that in many cases are much lower than a seller would ever accept. In the attempt to see if they can find a deal, and this gap between what sellers want and what buyers want is forcing a lot of people onto the sidelines. And there's just not a situation where they're coming together. It's too far apart, sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars apart. And if they can't make a deal, they just don't make a deal. We're starting to see, um, people who bought in 2021 or 22 or even into 23, uh, need to sell for any number of reasons, but they don't want to because they bought at a price that they can't get anymore. They're probably taking a loss. And so those people are trying to do anything they can to avoid having to sell. They will rent the property. They will. Spend their savings, they will do. They will take on a second job. Whatever it takes, they will try to maintain that house. Because they don't want to take a hit. However, we are starting to see a lot of people who are taking the hit and saying, screw it, we're out of here. We're going to take a loss on this and we're going to move on. Really, I mean, this isn't rocket science. If you want to sell a house in today's market, you're going to have to accept the market value. You can try to push that by having a better staged, better marketed, better photographed home, because that's where buyers start their searches online. And if it doesn't present well, buyers just move on to the next because they have lots of options these days. Buyers also have to learn to accept market value as well. Um, which is part of the hesitation because they are in control in today's market and they think that if they aren't getting what they perceive to be market value, well, they just won't buy. And that is why transaction volumes are down. No other complicated way about it. It's because buyers and sellers aren't coming together on price. They just can't come to a suitable negotiation for both sides. It's important to note that there is a skill in this that many people overlook because unless you're in it, you don't really realize that you're dealing with it. And that is a realtor on either the listing side or the buying side, or both. Who is creative? We've had a number of situations where deals are about to die. Technically, a deal has died because the offer has expired, and we bring it back because we understand that for most parties, you need to have a win win. Both parties feel like they need to get something. And we have worked through challenges with people. We have helped them figure out ways to negotiate that they wouldn't have thought of otherwise. Or that if you ask more questions of the seller or the listing agent that you might get different answers or you might get more information. And this is where the value of a realtor comes into getting a transaction done, when sometimes it seems like it's not going to happen. We're here for if you need us, you can find us on our website at bethandryan.ca, where this entire podcast is in written form. You can book an appointment with us and give us a call anytime. Have a great week!