Ep 20: How did August 2025 Guelph real estate sales perform?

this month, Ryan discusses August 2025 Guelph real estate sales, as well as what you can expect for the remainder of 2025.

You can always get touch with Beth and Ryan Waller on their website

Transcript

Welcome to the Guelph Real Estate Report podcast with your host and Guelph realtor, Brian Waller. This podcast is designed to provide information for those buying and selling homes in the Guelph area to make the process more informative, fun, and a little less stressful. Now on with the show! Hey everyone and welcome back to the Guelph Real Estate Report podcast. My name is Ryan Waller and I am a realtor in Guelph with my wife Beth. And this is episode number 20. And I read a stat recently that talked about most podcasts. 90% of them don't get past episode number ten. So in my mind, this is a win. We're at episode 20 now, and today we are going to talk about the sales in August in Guelph real estate and what we think might happen for the remainder of 2025. Before we get into the real estate sales for the month, I want to address a few things that have come up. And, um, anyone with kids would know. August is a pretty busy time with kids home. Uh, obviously not in school and family vacations and just activities in general in our house. It's pretty busy with part time jobs, um, kids wanting to get together with their friends, all this stuff. And so, uh, we were slower to come up with an episode in August. And during that time we have had some, uh, comments from the public, from our videos or, uh, our podcasts or any of the blogs that we write about the market itself. And I wanted to address a few of those things first. When the July golf real estate sales came out. In many cases they were actually wrong. And this is part of the ripple effect that we've noticed from the December 2024 real estate board merger, where the golf real estate board went away. We became part of a larger group including Toronto, and a lot of the historical sales data was migrated over into this new system. And there were some glitches. I remember in December and January it was pretty bad with duplicate listings and. Sales being reported twice or not at all. Um, and for some reason the glitches started to show up in the July data. So anybody who just simply looked at what the sales were in the system last July and compared them to this July, reported an incorrect number, because what happened was somehow along the way, the July sales, in many cases, a lot of them were duplicated. So it made it look like there were a lot more sales in 2024, in July. And. So the quick answer for anybody who was just plugging the dates into the system saw that we were down about 25% in July 2025 versus last year. However, it's not true. Uh, Beth and I keep our own database outside of the system as to what happens, and we update it monthly. So we actually had the true July 2024 sales data at the end of July last year. And the true information is that we were actually plus 11% in the number of homes sold, not -25 or 28 or what was widely reported. I actually corrected a few brokerages who had the incorrect information, and when I showed them, the information that they were sharing was wrong and why they corrected it. However, it didn't stop a few people from emailing me and telling me that I was trying to over inflate the market or make the real estate market look better than it was, um, by reporting a positive number, when in fact it was negative. And I simply asked those people to send me information if they had it. Um, but knowing that our information was correct, and it is directly from the data that we pulled a year ago, and not relying on the current system and trusting it, because I learned many years in the corporate world that garbage data in means garbage results out, as in, if the integrity of what you're using is weak, um, it's not going to be that reliable. So. I guess a lesson to make sure that whenever you're pulling data or reading something, to sometimes look at the source to make sure that it's actually accurate. And secondly, I guess related to that, um, when the July numbers came out and the people who are brokerages or cities that did get them correct and noticed that July was almost an anomaly this year, by outpacing 2024, there was a lot of I mean, this is only my personal perspective, but there were a lot of realtors or mortgage brokers talking about how the market is rebounding. And, uh, you know, you need to get in quickly. And, um, you know, it's a great time to buy because it's the cheapest it's going to get. Um, sellers, hold on to your prices because, you know, this is the big boom up. And it's just, you know, we've talked about this over and over and over again how we don't see the market changing significantly at all. And in fact, if anything, we see the markets still contracting a little bit over the next few months and possibly getting cheaper. I mean, we're not talking about falling off a cliff, but we are talking about a slight erosion in prices and a slight erosion in sales activity through the remainder of 2025. Not to meet Negative Nelly here, but the economy in southern Ontario right now is on shaky ground. Jobs reports came out yesterday. That would be September 5th and they weren't good. Um, unemployment at uh, levels outside of Covid that we haven't seen in almost a decade. Um, the manufacturing cities, Windsor, Oshawa and places like Hamilton, Brantford and Guelph are impacted by the tariffs for sure. And unemployment in Windsor and Oshawa outpaces the national average. I think Windsor was double digits. Oshawa was 9%. And the overall average, uh, unemployment rate is 7% nationally. And so it's not a great message. And none of these people are going to be rushing out to buy a house and yet alone drive prices up. We may find some regional blips where people who are living in Toronto and more expensive homes decide that they don't. They don't need that or they can't afford that. And so they'll sell their more expensive home in Toronto and buy a cheaper house in Guelph. But we don't see any reason why prices would be taking off over the next. Definitely between now and the end of the year. But even into next spring, it's possible at the next interest rate announcement that we are going to see a decline in the interest rate, which is good news for anyone, anyone with a variable rate mortgage or home equity line of credit or car loan. Maybe as it puts more money in your pocket on a month to month basis. But I don't see a situation in the next little while where we are going to be celebrating rising prices. I just see a period of this where we sort of move along. What we did see in August was an erosion of the average price. It was substantial in the condo market. It went from about 600,000 to 575. But I'll get into that in a minute. But message is one two things. July sales were good. Um, they were not bad like reported. And secondarily, I don't see the market changing in any meaningful way between now and the end of the year. So with that said, let's get into the August sales and see if we can get an idea of what's going on in the current market. Okay, so in August we really the message in August is it was an average August. There was nothing really amazing about it. It wasn't back to 2020 numbers. Um, but it is in line with 2022, 23, 24. It's in the range and uh, nothing really unusual there. August, for context, is a pretty slow month. It could be up there with November and December. Just because people are really into the swing of summer, they're on vacation, they're traveling, and they're just not putting the house hunt as a priority for that time. So there are less listings and, uh, some sellers are holding off or just not really doing much. There's not a lot of activity. Buyers are fewer. They're still out there. There are people who need to move for any number of reasons, but overall it's just slower. We have unit sales tracking at -7% versus 2024. Um, again, that's in line with April at -11, May at minus seven. Um. This is something we've talked about for a little while, how we think that the remainder of the year is going to be overall lesser than 2024. We are still behind on an annual basis versus 2024. There's less overall activity in the market, and we're on a bit of a crossroads on both sides of the deal. Buyers again, don't feel the rush to make a decision. They have lots of options. Their offers have conditions when they do decide to make one. Um, sellers in many cases are still playing hardball, still have a memory of of 2022. And sometimes as a result of that, their listings sit stale because buyers say, well, for the price you're asking Mr. or Mrs. Seller, I have a better option and they get overlooked. And until they come down to the market value price that buyers are looking at in today's market, the listings sit stale. Uh, in August we sold an average of about four houses per day, um, on an annual basis. In Guelph. We sell about five with the, uh, months of March to June making up over five a day, and then July to December being under the average, and again, making that overall average come into play at about five per day. Declining unit volumes don't necessarily mean declining prices. However, we did see that happen, um, in August. So, um, let's get into those numbers in the market in August, we saw 124 sales. Uh, 41 of them were condo and townhouse or anything with a fee. 83 of them were detached and semi-detached or freehold. No fees. Uh, within the condo market, of the 41 units that sold, the lowest was a condo under 300,000. So a 2.999 condo in onward Willow. The most expensive. Uh, there were two of them, I believe, on Simmons. Uh, that sold just over a million bucks. 1,000,070 was the high. Um, we still see those. $1 million condos sell, um, in Guelph. There's definitely a market for them. And a couple sell every month. The overall average price, which I talked about earlier. Was 571, and we have been hovering in around the 600,000 mark for the last little while with slow declines. But this was a big bump down. Um, it was about 5%, um, lower. Now, the average price is a bit tricky because, um, you know, if you have a really big sale in one month, it skews up the overall average just because of that one sale. And it's not a real true measure of the market. So there is a grain of salt to be had. And also keep in mind that August is a slow month. So, um, you know, the sample that you have just for the month of August is not necessarily something you need to be using as gospel homes sold at the average of 96.9% of the last posted asking price. Again, this used to be just over 97, so it's a move down again, how much you weight you want to put on that is up to you. But um, it does. It does mean that there is some erosion happening. There's no doubt of the 41 units that sold, only one sold over the asking price. Six sold at the asking price, and the other 34 of 41 or 82.5% sold under the asking. So eight out of ten. 82 out of 100 units sold under the asking average price. Again, is something here to be looking out for? And probably because there's a glut of supply in this segment. Um, when we reported this in July, we said that there are 237 units in this segment available, and an average of 1.6 is selling per day. And so the trend is consistent. If we're still selling 1.6 a day into August, and in August we didn't, we only sold one per 1.3 per day. So we're actually selling less units in August, which is which is about right because August is a slow month, but now there are only 205 units for sale, which means we were selling less on average. And now there's 32 units less for sale. How does that work? Um, and the only way that would work would be that there are sellers who took their house off the market, and it didn't return. Uh, they either decided not to rent it or decided to rent it and not make it available for sale. The seller got fed up with not being able to get their price, and they decided that they are just going to leave it vacant. But for whatever reason, there was a bump up in sellers who decided just not to put their house on the market any longer and took it off. So now there are less options on the market and, uh, there doesn't seem to be any uptick. It's less options and also less selling. If you're a buyer in this segment, it means that you have more power to negotiate here. For sure, whether a seller wants to accept that is up to them. It's their house. But any of our clients who have bought a condo in the last six months have had a much better deal than they would have had just a year ago, that's for sure. In the detached semi-detached segment, 83 units sold here. 250 was the low price and this was a, I think, a semi in Exhibition Park that needed a lot of work. There were no interior photos. It was the classic handyman special or need some TLC in the listing description, so I suspect it needed a ton of work. Sold for two 52,075,000 was the high price in Cortright East. Uh, that is, uh, arguably golf's most expensive neighborhood. Uh, not $2 million expensive on average. But, um, it is a pretty expensive neighborhood and very desirable. Overall average was 916,000. This is up from July of 861. But again, you know, a sale at 2,000,075 is certainly going to bring the average up. So. It's worth noting that without that average we get, we're sorry. Without that sale price, we get closer to the overall average. So yes, it is slightly higher than July. And yes, it is going in the opposite direction from condos, but it's nothing really notable. Homes here sold on average of 98.2% of the last listed asking price, 11 of the 83 sold over the asking, 11 sold at the asking, and the remaining 61 or 74% sold under the asking. And it appears that the detached segment in August moved in the opposite direction of condos, so overall average stayed the same or went slightly up 13% sold over the asking price. And um, they're selling it on average, a slightly higher price versus the last listed asking price. So buyers are willing to pay a little bit more. And uh, in some cases a 13% of the time over the asking. Um, and that really over the asking means that, you know, if, if someone artificially priced the house low, of course it's going to sell over the asking. So take that with a grain of salt as well. But the message seems to be that the detached segment is a healthier segment than the condo market. Within that. It's interesting that the million dollar plus segment continues to be strong. We fell just inside our metric of 15 to 20%, selling over the million dollar mark in August. We were at 19.3. So in the high end of the range, um, I would say that if we can get to 20% in September, that we've got a trend of higher value homes selling in in Guelph. And there's a variety of reasons for this, but we would suggest that perhaps it's move up buyers, people who are selling in a hotter segment below $1 million and getting a little more activity on their house and getting a better price, and buying in a segment that has been struggling for a few years, over $1 million, because they can get a better deal. And so that gap from what they can sell for and what they can buy for is getting a little bit smaller. So it's a good time for them to buy. Maybe it was $350,000 gap between what they wanted and what they could sell for last year. Maybe it's down to 300 or 250 now. And they they being the buyers and sellers are seeing value there. And so overall, really the market, um, is starting to show some interesting trends. But I do caution that August is a small sample size and it could just be a one month blip. September to October is the next. Or what we call the second spring, where we do see more activity. We've already started to see it out of the gate in September, and we would anticipate that there's going to be quite a few transactions this month, perhaps into October as well. But into November and December it's going to slow down. I don't anticipate any major move on prices between now and the end of the year. So if you're buying or selling and it just makes sense for you to buy or sell, then go for it. Um, but don't make any major decisions. Uh, by timing the market, because I in this case, not only do people say don't do it in an investment market or stock market, don't do it now in the real estate market, because I don't think it's going to go meaningfully, meaningfully in any direction, uh, over the next six months. If you have any questions on the golf real estate market, you can always give us a call. Um, you can visit us on our website at Beth and Ryan, or just keep an update on YouTube and, um, our homepage to take a look at our blogs and see what we've got going on with, uh, with market information. Talk to you soon.