Ep 24: How did Guelph real estate perform in October 2025?

How did Guelph real estate perform in the month of October 2025? 

- 31 condo/ townhouses sold

- 118 detached/ semis sold

- 149 total houses or a 4% increase over October 2024

This podcast episode dives a little deeper into these figures 

This podcast is also in written format on our Guelph real estate market blog

There is also a video version our Guelph real estate YouTube channel

You can always get touch with Beth and Ryan Waller on their website

Transcript

Welcome to the Guelph Real Estate Report podcast with your host and Guelph realtor, Ryan Waller. This podcast is designed to provide information for those buying and selling homes in the Guelph area to make the process more informative, fun, and a little less stressful. Now on with the show. Wow, it's quite the intro. I move from more of a news music intro to it appears to be a rock intro, so I hope you hope you like the hard rock intros. And if you don't let me know. And if you do well, you can also let me know and we will go from there. Uh, I had a couple emails from, uh, listeners this week about, um, the info that we provide and thanking us for that. And you're welcome. Uh, we enjoy doing it. We are probably the only realtors in town who look at data like this. We are the number one Guelph Real Estate podcast. Also because we are the only Guelph Real Estate podcast and we also update our blog on our website, which is pretty popular. We do YouTube videos, uh, which have been pretty popular as well, and our goal is to get the information out there to people who are considering real estate. If you're already in Guelph, or in many cases, if you are outside of Guelph and you are looking at, uh, or considering buying a house in Guelph, the idea around this is to help you get a better understanding of the market, because everybody wins. When a buyer or seller is more informed on the market and how it's working. And from our perspective, every realtor should be doing this, uh, providing this information to their clients because that's their job. And we believe that putting the info out there, uh, let buyers and sellers make a lot of their own decisions and come up with their own conclusions based on the information we provide is helpful. So thank you. And I guess enough of that PSA. Let's get into the numbers. Okay. For October it was a good month to summarize how it went. It was a good month. Um, overall there were a steady number of transactions. Um, it was greater than last year, one of the few months this year that has been above last year. And we'll get into the specifics, but the reality is that it appears that the market is stabilizing. And stabilizing doesn't mean prices go up or prices go down. It just means that transactions are happening in a healthy way. We are almost right in the middle of a balanced market, and buyers feel comfortable in what it is. Their buying sellers are starting to accept the market values of the current market, and the market dynamics of of Golf real estate are happening. So overall, it appears that we are trending in a healthy right direction. Overall sales in the month of October were plus 4% um in units. So we sold 149 this year in October. And I think last year was 143. So some people would call that flat. I would say, uh, take the small win and we are slightly higher. Uh, there was a Government of Canada announcement, um, on the 29th, where the policy rate came down 0.25 basis points. That's the fourth time in 2025 that's happened. And we started the year at a 3.25 rate. We are now at 2.25 uh, at the end of the year. So on a $500,000 mortgage, um, it works out that the average person is saving about $400 a month versus the same time last year with those four rates cuts. So it is a significant. Extra value in someone's pocket, um, versus the same time last year. Does that make people go out and buy houses? Mhm. Probably not the individual announcement, but it certainly helps the overall circumstances for many people in particular. Maybe first time buyers who have been waiting for rates to come down to make it more affordable for them to be able to get in. So we I, you know, there's no data that would tell you that someone's buying a house because the rate dropped on October 29th. But I think, uh, in totality, along with all the other factors in someone's life, it may be, uh, very helpful. As mentioned, we're sitting in a balanced market in Guelph. There are 534 houses on the market. And I was telling somebody a story last week where in early January 2022, right before the madness hit, there was a week where there were 51 houses for sale and now 534, and when there were 51 prices. Obviously, now that we know, shot up in February, March and April, because there were hundreds and hundreds of people fighting to buy the 51 houses that were available. And of course, as a result, the price is shot way, way up. There was low supply and high demand. Now that's fallen off. Um, sellers aren't in control like they used to be. They're now 534 houses. And, uh, buyers have lots of choice. And in fact, if it's a condo, they probably have 3 or 4 choices in the same building, which I'll talk about in a few minutes. Of the 534, we've got 246 in the condo townhouse segment and 288 in the detached segment. So almost 5050, a few more detached than condos, but close to the same. Uh, this is a decrease of 37 from October, mid October when I last reported this, partially because contracts typically expire at the end of the month. And so, uh, a few contracts got bumped out, listings got bumped out because the contract expired on October 31st, and they'll probably come back. But regardless, it's still a net decrease of 37 from the last update. Um. We are sitting at about four months inventory based on the Moy calculator. That is a. It takes the average number of houses that have sold in the past few periods and divides it by the number that are currently for sale. To see how many months it would take for, um, if everybody bought up houses, how many months it would take for the inventory to sell completely through. And the calculation comes out at 4.2, and a balanced market is between 2 to 6 months of inventory. So we're right in the middle. Um, October 2025. 4.8 houses per day. It's actually a pretty solid month. Um, of the of the 149 that sold this month, 31 were condos and 118 were detached. Of the 31 condos, the low was a 335 and the honorable low neighborhood and a high was 1,000,019 in the arboretum. So the overall average in condos is 576,000. Earlier in the year, this was trending at 600,000. So we have made sort of a noticeable bump downwards in the average price and it's predictable. I predict it's going to continue to go down. Um, market dynamics are in play. There is way more inventory than people are buying. There are 246 units for sale and on average one is selling per day. There were 31 sales in October. There are 31 days in October, one per day. So it's going to take 246 days at this point to sell through all of the condos available on the market. That's a lot of condos. And what happens is, if there are 3 or 4 in the same building, a buyer is making appointments at all 3 or 4. Check them out to compare layouts, conditions of the of the interior updates, and they are negotiating them against each other. And and if one of the sellers is desperate to sell and sells at a low price, that maybe hasn't been seen in this development for a little while. Well guess what? The other three are now looking at that one saying, oh God, this is a comparable for us. And so that's what happens. That's how market pricing works. If somebody takes a lower price, well now it's the comparables for the others. And we are starting to see that. And this is why it's beneficial for buyers right now because they can do this sort of thing. Um, three of the 31 units here, uh, sold are over the asking. None sold out the asking and the remaining 90%. So 28 of the 31 sold under the asking. If you're buying a condo right now, yes. It's the best time that it has been in a year. It's been, you know, if you bought a condo with us or with anyone else earlier in the year, well, you've you're starting to catch the better pricing. Has it got better? Yes it has. And as we move into November, December it's going to get better, I think, as some investors decide to offload their investment properties for tax purposes towards the end of the year. But I do anticipate that we're probably going to stay in this range, in fact, even get better pricing, uh, into early next year, because I think there are going to be more and more and more of these. And until we get through this glut, we have prices aren't going anywhere. Um. In the detached and semi-detached segment. There were 118 units that sold 400,000. In the junction was the low and 2.4 million. In the Clear Fields neighborhood was. The high um homes here sold at 98% of the last asking price, which is on trend and 13% sold over the asking, nine at the asking, and 80% of the homes sold here were under the asking. Um, that one house at 2.475 million, uh, has impacted the overall average. Um, it drops about $20,000 on average if you take out that one sale. Um, and so the average price in Guelph, uh, is about 800,000 overall for the month last year was 814. So this is a very slight decline. Um, but it is a decline nonetheless. Part of that comes from the higher end segment flattening out. And we were watching because in the spring, uh, there seemed to be a bit of a momentum on home selling over $1 million in any given month. In Guelph, 15 to 20% of the sales are $1 million plus. And we were looking at 25, maybe 30% in some cases. But, um, it seems to have settled down in October. We're back at 15% and trending at the bottom end, but still within the range. So, uh, what we thought maybe a blip appears to be settling down again. So overall, if you take year to date numbers, add in. Now the new data we have for October you are looking at overall sales volume. So if you add up all the sale prices together, that's down 4.3% versus last year the number of units sold. So a number of actual houses that have sold is down 4.1%. And the average price is flat, almost identical actually to January to October of last year. It just simply means that buyers are being more cautious. They're not going out and buying up everything. They're taking their time. The process takes longer. There are conditions and offers now, and everything seems to be a little bit slower than it used to be, which, I mean, I think it's really the way it's supposed to be. I think it's indicative of a healthier market. Things are taking longer. People are taking their time making educated decisions on things. Um, but with the price being flat, it's an indication that buyers are still willing to pay. They just need more time to go through the process and are taking their time to make decisions to compare properties to, um, just be a little bit smarter about their decisions. And, uh, sellers are reluctantly in some cases, in some cases, they're not even accepting it, but they're reluctantly accepting slightly lower market prices because, well, they want to sell their house. And in many cases, if they're selling a house, they're also buying a house. So if you're selling and buying in the same market, you know, you will get a lower price than you would have on your home that you're selling, but you're also getting a lower price than you would have paid on the one you're buying. So it is a wash. Um, many people tend to forget that they want the absolute high price that their house is willing to get because they say, no, I'm going to negotiate harder, and then they expect to get the absolute lowest price by saying the market is soft on the purchase, and that's not quite the way it works. But, um, that does happen periodically. So overall, the market, I think in October, to summarize it is healthy. I think we are. Moving along at a much slower pace. But transactions are happening, buyers are out there, sellers are selling and I actually have more confidence in the market. After looking at October numbers than I have in the last little while. Um, the sky is not falling. We're not 20% down. We are down, but we're not 20% down. And if you take a look back at even pre 2020, we're still significantly higher than we were then. So it's worth sometimes taking a wider look at the market and see how things are doing. And um, golf real estate from my perspective is still pretty healthy. So if you have any questions on the golf real estate market, you can, um, take a look at our blog at Beth and Ryan AKA that we update every two weeks on the local market. Uh, it gives a little more info, including, uh, a bit on neighborhood performance that we did a YouTube video on for golf today. We put the data in the blog, uh, on YouTube is a video version of it, and if you like it, subscribe. And, uh, we do our best to give all the information we can to get buyers and sellers to make more informed decisions. So if that's you and you have more questions, always feel free to give us a call, book an appointment, email us whatever's easiest for you. Talk to you soon.