Ep 27: Guelph real estate sales for Nov 2025

Stay ahead of the Guelph housing market with the Guelph Real Estate Report Podcast. Each week, top-producing REALTORS® Beth and Ryan Waller break down prices, inventory, neighbourhood trends, investment opportunities and what it all means for buyers and sellers.

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If Guelph is home, or you want it to be, this is your essential bi-weekly market update.

You can always get touch with Beth and Ryan Waller on their website

Transcript

Welcome to the Guelph Real Estate Report podcast with your host and Guelph realtor, Ryan Waller. This podcast is designed to provide information for those buying and selling homes in the Guelph area to make the process more informative, fun, and a little less stressful. Now on with the show. Hello everyone and welcome back to the Guelph Real Estate Report Podcast. This is episode number 27. My name is Ryan Waller and I work in Guelph Real Estate with my wife Beth. There is snow on the ground here in Guelph, and when there's snow on the ground, it means real estate sales slow down. And here we are into December. Probably I'm going to say, actually, it is the slowest month of the year. No doubt about it. And after the 15th of December, sales really slow down all the way into January 1st, where suddenly it picks up again. We'll look a little bit into the future today, but mainly we're going to talk about what happened in November in Guelph real estate. And November this year was well, it was okay. It was a standard November month that you would expect to find in real estate. In fact, it's sort of reassuring to see that the volumes were stable, uh, into the end of November. Of course, you can find this information a little more in depth on our website. Beth and Ryan, there's a blog that we update every two weeks that go along that goes along with this podcast. And there is a video on YouTube, on our YouTube channel that, uh, does a obviously a video version of this. And you may ask, Ryan, why do you do three different versions of this? And the reason is because, uh, a lot of the clients that we have, or the way people consume media are different from each other. And so we do get a lot of traffic off the internet for our blog. Uh, YouTube is often now used as a search engine for any number of things, including wealth, real estate. And there is, as far as I know, no other consistent podcast out there on the Guelph real estate market. So driving your car, you need something to listen to for ten minutes or so. You can catch up on everything golf, real estate, uh, because we do it typically within a week of the middle of the month or the end of the month. Okay, so into November, if you take a look at the number of sales that happened in November 2025 and just compared to 2024, doesn't look all that great. It shows up as -22%. But if you go back a little bit further into 2023 and 2022, the numbers are pretty good. Um, 2024 had a big November. It was a you know, it's not really fair to compare it month over month and just look at that as the sole measure. Uh, 2023 was also a terrible month. Um, in November. So you know it to sell 125 houses, which is what we sold in November. Not bad at all. That works out to be about four houses per day. And, uh, it's a respectable number. Nothing significant, nothing, uh, worrisome. A respectable four per day. Once we get into December, people start canceling their listings. They're on the market until now, you know, early December and decide that it's just not worth it. They want to put up their Christmas tree. They don't want to have to keep their house clean all the time. And they say, we'll come back in the spring. And what you start to see is a decline in listings. And those who may want to sell are choosing to wait until the new year to do that. And I'll get into a little bit about what I think might happen in the new year. But as far as December rolls around, we're currently sitting at, um. 452 houses on the market. Just two weeks ago, this number was at 505. So we've had a 10% decrease in, um, listings on the market in just two weeks. This is, as I mentioned, some are selling, but mostly it's because people are starting to either pull their listings from the market or just, um, going to realist in the spring. 238 of the properties are condos. That was 252 just two weeks ago, and 214, which was 253 just two weeks ago in the detached segment. So, um, there is a larger decline in the detached segment coming off the market. It's a net decrease of 53. Um, and we anticipate by the end of the year we're probably going to end up at about 400 listings on the market when when more sales hit the through December and people start to cancel as we get closer to Christmas. 400 is the number that I anticipate. Now for some context. In January 2022. We had a there was a week where we had about 50 listings on the market, and we are likely going to hit in January of 2026, 400. So an eight fold increase in the number of listings available between January 2026 and January 2022. So if you think if you remember back to January 2022. Um, certainly I do. Uh, January, February and March of that year were a crazy. It was the ultimate high ever in golf, real estate and most of Canadian real estate. And, um, it was because there was a lack of supply. And so this problem of lack of supply is definitely not going to be a problem in January of 2026. So keep that in mind. We'll talk about that in a few minutes. Um, we are sitting in a balanced market. Um, we if you just simply take the, um. Number of houses that are available and divided by the trend over the last three months. Uh, we're in a situation where, um, we have 3.25 months inventory available, and anything less than two is a seller's market. Between 2 and 6 is a balanced market, and above six is a buyer's market. So at 3.25 we are sitting in a balanced market. However, it's um, it's low simply because people are canceling. So, uh, I suspect that we're going to fall more into a four months of inventory or higher, uh, into January. So 125 sales, 32 were condos, 93 were detached. Let's get into a little bit more about each of those segments in the condo segment. There were 30 days in November, 32 sales. Uh, obviously the math is about just over one per day. This was at 1.6 per day. Uh, they were moving a lot quicker in the summer. So it's really slowed down. And, uh, the number of listings has actually increased very slightly. Um, there were 237 condos available in July. Here we are in December. There are now 238. So the actual number of condos has gone up in six months. Uh, not down and less are selling per day. So of that, uh, of the 32, there was a low, uh, purchase price of 330,000 in Dover. Cliff, I believe it was on Conroy Crescent. There was a high of 1.49 million in Manor Park, which is an exclusive little area off of um Edinburgh Road. Overall average was 578,000, which is getting as much closer to the 600 that we were bouncing around earlier in the year. However, if you take out that one sale at 1.49 million, the number drops to 548,000 immediately. So yes, it's being propped up by that one sale, but that's how numbers work. Um, so 548, if you take out the Manor Park sale, 578 with it, uh, we anticipate we're going to see more condos at the market. We anticipate that in January we're going to be flooded with more. So we'll keep an eye on that. 238 is the number we're at now on the market. We'll take a look at that in the new year and see what happens into the first week of January. None of the units that sold of the 32 sold over the asking, six of them sold at the asking, and the remaining 26 sold under the asking price. If you're a buyer in this segment, it is a perfect time. Might get better for you, but right now is better than it has been in years. It continues to get better because every time I come on here and talk about the condo segment, it seems to be getting better and better for buyers. So, um, the end of the year is going to be an interesting time to see where we land. If we move into the detached segment 93 sales 530,000 was the low that was in the ward. 1,000,005 50 was the high. I believe that was on Tzadik and the overall average was 794,000. And for the first time in a while, this is below 800,000. And part of that is because there's a lack of houses selling over a million bucks. And typically for years and years now, 15 to 20% of the sales on any given month in golf, on average, are over a million bucks, sometimes in the summer or even in the spring of this year, we saw higher than 20%. Um, October sales came in at 17% and November sales. Uh, where is my where is my number? Here. Uh, November sales came in at 7% of the sales at a million plus. So low number. Um, and it seems to be flattening out there. So of course, that impacts the overall average. As I mentioned, 794,000 was the average for November 8th. Of the 93 sold over the asking, five at the asking, and 80 the remaining 86% sold under the asking price. So, um, it's interesting to see that because, um, you know, I think that we saw a broad decline in October. Uh, we're going to keep an eye on that. And then early November was really low, um, really low average prices because everything that was selling was below 800. Um, they tend to move quicker. So, uh, overall, um, it was an interesting month for that. So we'll keep an eye on whether 794,000 sticks or whether that was just an anomaly that happened, uh, just based on the mix that sold in November. If we take a look at the year to date numbers, now that we have November in the sales volume. So if you add up all the dollars of the homes that sold, it was -6%. The number of units sold was -5.3%. So, uh, that works out to be, I think, almost a hundred less houses. And the overall average price, though, um, wasn't affected as much. It's down 0.9% or 1% versus 2024. Um, and we'll keep an eye on that. It's interesting to see that the dollars and units are down, but the average price is holding, um, and it simply talks to the resilience of the golf real estate market. Looking to 2026? Um, you know, based on what we're seeing so far at the end of this year and what we personally have planned coming up for next year, based on what clients have said to us already, it's going to be a busy spring and there is going to be a lot of inventory, and we need buyers to show up too, because if buyers show up and there are a lot of listings, we will continue on a balanced market. But if there are a lot of listings and buyers don't show up, well, we're going to find ourselves in a situation where prices will decline pretty darn quick, and I suspect we're going to end up somewhere in the middle. Beth and I are in our 2026 predictions. Anticipated the next year will be down 1 to 3% on the average price, but up in transactions. So more activity will happen. But we anticipate for a variety of reasons, you can go back and listen to that episode or read about it if you want. But for a variety of reasons, we believe that prices will decline on an average basis because a lot more of the lower priced inventory will sell next year. So take a look at that if you want to read up on it. But, um, I think we're pretty consistent with what you're hearing in other parts of the GTA. Uh, that overall activity is going to increase just because rates are lower, prices are starting to get a little bit lower, and buyers are coming in to pick up that stuff. And if they can get a good deal based on prior years, maybe it'll get better, I don't know. But if they can get a deal based on prior years, they're going to jump back in the market. Thank you to everyone who has downloaded this podcast. We hit a record number of downloads last week, and I think we're getting close to 500 or so in total. So thank you for listening. Uh, reach out if you have any questions or anything you want us to cover, but otherwise we will see you at about mid-month. Um, depending on how the volume is, if it's really light, we might hold off until the end of the year. But we'll talk to you soon