Slowest Start in Years? Mid- march update on Guelph real estate (ep 34)

Episode 34: Guelph Real Estate Market Update (March 1–15, 2026)

The Guelph real estate market is off to an unusually slow start in 2026.

In this episode, we break down the March 1–15 Guelph real estate numbers, including inventory, sales activity, and pricing trends — and how they compare to an already sluggish January and February.

Despite inventory rising to over 450 active listings, sales have not followed. In fact, sales velocity is currently trending below February levels, which is something we rarely see heading into the spring market.

We also cover:

• Why buyer activity remains low
• What’s happening in the condo vs detached markets
• Negotiation trends (most homes selling under asking)
• Micro-markets within Guelph (downtown vs south end)
• Why we may be heading toward a buyer’s market by May

If you're buying or selling in Guelph, this episode will help you understand where the market is heading — and what it means for your next move.

👉 Full blog breakdown: https://bethandryan.ca/guelph-real-estate-market-updates

Hosted by Beth & Ryan Waller — one of the top real estate teams in Guelph and ranked #4 in Canada with Keller Williams for 2025.

You can always get touch with Beth and Ryan Waller on their website

Transcript

 Welcome to the Guelph Real Estate Report podcast with your host and Guelph realtor, Ryan Waller. This podcast is designed to provide information for those buying and selling homes in the Guelph area to make the process more informative, fun and a little less stressful. Now on with the show. Hey everyone and welcome back to the Guelph Real Estate Report Podcast. This is episode number 34. My name is Ryan Waller and I work in Guelph Real Estate with my wife Beth, and together we run one of the top volume teams in the city of Guelph and within Keller Williams Canada. And our goal is to help our clients past, present and future get more information on the Guelph real estate market to help them make more informed decisions. Spring is in the air and today we're going to talk about the month to date. That is the March 1st to 15th Guelph real estate numbers. But to give you a bit of backstory before we talk about that. If you look back at January, it was a slow month. In fact, it was the slowest January we've seen in years, and also one of the slowest months in totality that we've seen in years. Then we moved into February, and it finished as the slowest volume in February that we have seen in a long time. So back to back sluggish months. When I say lowest volume, I'm referring to the number of actual houses that sell. It seems that buyers are in no rush to buy, and when they are looking to buy, it seems that they're not overly interested in the items as in houses that are on the market. So they are not moving and sellers have mysteriously disappeared. A lot of them took their houses off the market in December and didn't return as of yet. And if it's anything like our client base, they're probably going to be coming in the next month or so. And so here we are into March, the early spring market. And this is typically when we start to see volume rise and the number of listings rise, the number of buyers looking rises and overall transaction volume goes from sluggish in January and February. It picks up in March and peaks eventually in May before it slowly comes down from there. And so here we are in March, and inventory has certainly risen. We're at 450 houses on the market in Guelph, which is the first time in a little while that we've actually surpassed what we were at in early December. We took a big dip, and now we're back up to those levels again. 240 of those are in the condo slash townhouse segment. 210 of those are in the detached segment for a total of 450 listings. However, listings may have risen, but sales have not, and in fact, sales are actually lower on a per day basis in March so far than February, which I don't think I've seen before. Sales in February average 3.8 houses sold per day, and we are trending the first half of March at 3.73. So we're actually below the sales velocity or the trend in February, which it is only half the month. There is the second half of March. As weather gets warmer, it could make up for it, but there was no seasonal increase that we typically see coming into March. To give some perspective, if we were sitting at 3.7 this year, that is the lowest. In fact, prior to this year it ranged from 4.5 last year, all the way up to 11.6. So to be at 3.7 is that we are definitely the lowest bar in the past number of years. If you want to see a visual of this or read the whole thing in writing, it's always available on our blog at Beth and Ryan. Now, why is the volume down? Well, it's not exclusive to golf. Uh, I think all of this part of Ontario is going through the similar sort of trend, and there are a number of factors I won't go in-depth on them, but things like the US, Iran conflict, things like the jobs numbers that came out last week that weren't great, mortgage renewals, and a lot of people not wanting to make big decisions. Uh, in around the same time, they're going to be renewing their mortgage. Weather played a role as well. It's been a long, cold winter and a lot of people have just decided to wait until it gets warmer. Certainly, our client base has expressed that not only as buyers, but as sellers, that they would like to wait until the warmer weather before they do anything. And it may just be a delayed start to the year. The overall average price in Guelph so far in March is at 749,000. That's made up of 849,000 from the detached segment, and 539,000 from the condo segment. If you blend them all together again, it rolls up at 749,000, which is a move up from February. But again, it's only 15 days, so things certainly can change. There were 38 sales in detached and 18 in the condo and townhouse market, bringing the total number of sales so far in March to 56. If we look a little bit deeper into the segments of the condo and townhouse segment, 18 units sold. As mentioned, 360,000 was the low that was a condo in the Onward Willow neighborhood, and 900,000 was the high that was a condo in the I think it was a townhouse in the Pine Ridge neighborhood. The overall average, as mentioned, 539,000. We've been moving between low five hundreds and at one point the peak of about 600,000 as an average. So we're just below the midpoint. Nothing really alarming there. I have been bearish on this segment because we do continue to see inventory rise and sales just not keeping up. We have about eight months inventory in this segment. And at six months you become a buyer's market. So we're well into a buyer's market in the condo segment. Um, but there are some encouraging things in that. Um. We're seeing one more than one cell per day, where for a little while this was less than one. So there is. It does look like there are people starting to move into these, but they're not willing to pay over the asking price. Zero units so far this month have sold over the asking. One was at the asking, and the remaining 17 or 94% have sold under the asking price. And the majority of transactions here selling under the asking price would indicate that there's definitely room to negotiate. It would be consistent with a buyer's market, and homes are selling on average at about 97% of the last asking price, meaning there is about 3% negotiation on average. Uh, not every house, but on average it is happening. 42% of the condos that are on the market right now are vacant, which is something we watch because it signals that the owner, for some reason, hasn't sold it. They continue to hold on to it and absorb the cost related to it. But they are not selling it. And which would mean from my perspective, it's overpriced. However, maybe the owner doesn't have a mortgage and they have very minimal costs. I don't know, maybe they weren't able to rent it, I don't know. It's a softer rental market as well, which is a whole other topic. Um, but for whatever reason, almost half of the available condos on the market are now vacant. And from my perspective, if I'm representing a buyer, I'm telling them that there may be a signal that there's more room to negotiate on those type of listings. If we get into the detached segment, there were 38 sales there. 492,000 was the low price. That was, um, a house downtown and 1.5 million in Courtyard Hills was the high. The overall average here, as mentioned was 849,000. That is an increase versus February. And again, it's only a couple of weeks into the month of March, but 849,000 was the average. Uh, we have seen up to 900,000 as the average at some point last summer, I believe it was, and just under 800,000 as the low. So we're still sitting towards the middle part of that, much like the condo segment. Uh, homes here, like condos, sold at about 97% of the last listed price, meaning that there is room to negotiate. Um, here. And I'll talk a little bit more about that in just a second. Two of the 36 houses sold over the asking, five sold at the asking, and the remaining 80% or 29 houses sold under the asking price. Um, what we're starting to see is that the traditional, uh, 3 or 3 plus one bedroom, two story houses in the south end are sluggish. Uh, there are a lot of them. Uh, buyers have their choice, and they are being negotiated harder than houses that are smaller and cheaper in the downtown radius areas. So I think, um, bungalows in Exhibition Park, Saint George's Park, the ward, uh, those are all really still in demand. Uh, in particular, the ward is pretty hot right now. Uh, and what we are seeing sit a little bit longer. Are things between 800,000 and 1 million? Uh, south of, I would say probably south of Courtright are taking a little bit longer. So it's an interesting thing to watch. It's almost like there are two markets there or micro markets. Uh, within Guelph we do watch the million dollar plus segment. Uh, historically we've seen 15 to 20% sell over $1 million. Uh, so far this month, we're at 7%. Uh, we anticipate it looks like, based on what we're starting to see, is that the overall grouping of $1 million homes is coming down, and it probably now will average out between 10 and 15%. So. So where does that put the golf real estate market right now. Well, I'll spare you the technical analysis and breakdown. You can find that on the blog version, but we anticipate that by the time May rolls around, we will be likely in a full blown buyer's market of six plus months of inventory. And that is just a calculation of what has sold over the past three months, on average, divided by the number of available houses. The metric is designed to just give an idea of what direction we're heading in, but the mix of more inventory and lower sales velocity is a perfect mixture for a buyer's market, which I think we're going to see shortly. So as always, if you have any questions on the golf real estate market, feel free to reach out to us and we will be back at the end of March. With the total first quarter sales update on the golf real estate market. Have a great wee