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The Greenfield Report with Henry R. Greenfield
Episode 11- Budapest Crossroads: Orban's Diplomatic Maneuvers. With Gabriella
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From the former heart of the Austro-Hungarian Empire to today's diplomatic chess board, Budapest's role in global politics continues to fascinate and surprise. My recent conversation with Gabriella, a keen observer of Hungarian politics, revealed how Prime Minister Viktor Orban has transformed this Central European capital into an essential hub where East meets West in ways few could have predicted.
Standing on one of Budapest's magnificent Danube bridges, two striking images caught my attention – billboards featuring stern-faced EU officials looking down at Hungarian citizens, and Israeli flags flying alongside Hungarian ones. These visual elements symbolize Orban's dual strategy: maintaining a defiant stance toward Brussels while cultivating strategic relationships with controversial global figures like Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump.
Gabriella unpacked Orban's latest political maneuver – a referendum asking Hungarians whether they support Ukraine's fast-tracked EU membership. The government presents three compelling arguments against Ukraine joining: its notorious corruption (highlighting EU hypocrisy for criticizing Hungary for similar issues), the unfairness toward other long-waiting candidate countries, and most persuasively, the €500 billion financial burden Hungarian families would supposedly bear. With surgical precision, Orban focuses on pocketbook issues that resonate deeply with voters.
What makes Hungary truly fascinating is Orban's remarkable diplomatic balancing act. Trump calls him his "strongest friend" in Europe while others label him "Putin's puppet." Both descriptions contain elements of truth, giving Budapest extraordinary leverage as a potential neutral ground for Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations. As Gabriela noted, "Orban has Putin's ears and Trump on speed dial."
The "Orban playbook" – with its tough immigration policies, opposition to progressive social movements, and skillful external blame-shifting – appears to have influenced populist movements worldwide. Both CPAC's decision to hold conferences in Budapest and Tucker Carlson's choice to interview Orban alongside Putin demonstrate Hungary's outsized ideological influence.
As Germany announces massive defense investments and Europe grapples with Trump's tariff threats, understanding Budapest's unique position becomes increasingly important. Whether facilitating peace talks, serving as an ideological laboratory, or acting as a bridge between competing powers, Hungary under Orban exemplifies how determined leadership can transform a small nation into a geopolitical force that shapes our world far beyond its borders.
Welcome to the Greenfield Report
Speaker 1Welcome to the Greenfield Report with Henry R Greenfield , your gateway to understanding today's geopolitical landscape . With 50 years of experience across 10 countries , henry shares expert insights on world affairs , offering practical solutions and engaging guest perspectives . Dive into the Greenfield Report for lively discussions on the issues that matter .
Budapest's Geopolitical Significance
Speaker 2This is Henry R Greenfield reporting from Budapest , hungary , for the Greenfield Report . Budapest is the former capital of the Austro-Hungarian Empire which , while it ended over a century ago , budapest , remains relevant to this very day with several developments , some of which are happening right now . With several developments , some of which are happening right now , budapest was a communication point between the Warsaw Pact of the Soviet Union era during the Cold War in the West , led by the United States , nato and the Western Allies . After the fall of the wall , budapest once again became an important focal point for international diplomacy with the Budapest Memorandum regarding the future of Ukraine , which had only recently become a country carved out of the Soviet Union , which Vladimir Putin has made it his holy war to take back to what is now the Russian Federation , by diplomacy and then later invasion .
Speaker 2As I came in from the airport , two images struck me .
Speaker 2First , there were numerous posters on kiosks and billboards showing three non-Hungarians who were angrily , or perhaps more accurately , looking sinisterly , gazing down upon the Hungarian people .
Speaker 2The second was , as we crossed the Danube , on one of the many beautiful empire bridges , flags were waving that were uncharacteristic in Hungary . I decided to seek out a contact of mine who might be able to put some of these pieces together and explain it to an international audience , as , quite honestly , even to a seasoned observer of European politics , it is hard to keep up with the latest movement one way or another . It is hard to keep up with the latest movement one way or another , meaning pro-Ukraine , pro-russia , pro-populist or pro-maintaining the current world order , for lack of a better way of putting it on China , the German response which is just today to the many factions in Germany forming a new government expressly focused against Trump and JD Vance , who lectured them on democracy , and towards a new , stronger and reinvigorated Germany . Today , however , as we noted , we will be speaking with Gabriela , a longtime observer of the various movements and strategies of Prime Minister Viktor Orban who , as Trump put it prior to the US election , was his best friend . Gabriela , welcome to the Greenfield Report .
Speaker 3Welcome to Budapest , Henry .
Speaker 2Gabriela , could you please give us some insights first on what are on those kiosks saying to the Hungarian people and what is Orban trying to do ?
Speaker 3Well , thank you for noting that . The posters , as you make your way into Budapest , are calling the Hungarian population and voters
Ukraine's EU Membership Referendum Explained
Speaker 3yet again to cast their voice toward what we call here a referendum . It is very important to note that Orbán , during his more than a decade government we are not calling it a reign , because it would be against democracy democracy Orbán has been using this tool over and over , asking the Vox Populi , the voices of his electors , to express some of his very prominent views . This time , as you noted , and unlike in other contexts , this is not a national issue . You noted the three key figures that we can see on those posters from the European Commission the president , and also another gentleman , max Weber , who is a high-ranking , also German , as is Mrs von der Leyen , high-ranking EU member . Anyway , the question that will be asked to the Hungarian people on behalf of the prime minister , therefore the Hungarian government , is a very simple question Do you support Ukraine to join the EU community as a full member and get acceptance to be fast-tracked ?
Speaker 2Yes , or no , or no . Well , that's very interesting . So , if I understand this , it's kind of a combination of Viktor Orban's take on doing referendums , kind of Swiss style , but at the same time he kind of must know what the result is going to be , or he wouldn't be doing the referendum . And anyway , why is he against Ukraine joining the EU ?
Speaker 3And anyway , why is he against Ukraine joining the EU ? Well , you gave a hint of what Mr Orbán's wish to have is supported , and he is only voicing the Hungarian people , eu European citizens' voice . Therefore , no , ukraine is not eligible to become a EU member . To become a EU member . This is a way that Viktor Orbán put referendum , year after year , up to the Hungarian people . Let it be for child protection , eu funding , etc . Etc . His voters , however , are the only ones who take participation in this type of referendum .
Speaker 3I have been listening and hearing the people on the street among my friends , my family , and everybody is saying they are sure that the answer is going to be 99% of no . We are not supporting this . I can explain to you how the government , for the last couple of months , have been feeding the reasons why the result should be sounding no . Three main reasons . First of all , ukraine .
Speaker 3Before the war in the Central European community and mainly in Hungary , which is bordering Ukraine and has a minority speaking Hungarian in Ukrainian land , ukraine has been known as one of the most corrupt countries in Europe , a mafia country similar to Albania or Sicily country similar to Albania or Sicily . Therefore , hungarians feel that the EU is making an exemption about Ukraine , because Hungary has been guilt-tripped for years now by the EU for what else than corruption within the government that resulted of withholding funds from Hungary , and a good reason for Orbán to play hard ball whenever he wanted to get something or veto any decision that the 26 out of the 27 members have been willing to put forward . The second reason is that there are at least a dozen other countries in the West Balkans that have been waiting for over a decade , if not two , 20 years , to join the EU , such as North Macedonia , moldovia , georgia , albania , etc . Etc . So why Ukraine and why so fast ?
Speaker 3The three and main reason , as all true politicians would put it into their voters' head , reaches really , really close to their pocket economy . The Hungarian government is telling the Hungarian people that the EU have already decided to accept Ukraine , but also to sign off on almost 500 billion euros a little bit more than 550 billion US dollars at current rate to take up as a debt to welcome quote unquote
Netanyahu's Visit and Jewish Relations
Speaker 3Ukraine and its members . The Hungarian government is telling the Hungarian citizens you are the one . Each family will have to pay for that debt in hundred thousands of foreign , knowing the inflation , knowing all that is going on in the country the energy prices . This is really hitting hard where it hurts the most .
Speaker 2Thank you for that explanation . I can see how Prime Minister Orban can be very successful doing that . I would like to note for our listeners , however , that you can look up on Quora that I do ask a question , which I also answered , which is will fast-tracking Ukraine into the EU make Europe great again ? In that question I do note that Ukraine did have 50 million people in 1991 . Today it has 36 million . There have been tens of thousands of young children that have been captured or kidnapped , as the Ukrainians put it , taken to Russia .
Speaker 2Obviously , we've all seen the destruction of three and a half years of Putin's invasion , as well as the carving off of the eastern part of Ukraine and , of course , Crimea .
Speaker 2So my view on this , and that of many in Western Europe , is that bringing Ukraine into the EU is a very positive thing and it would be the largest actual land area in Europe , although of course , the population does not reflect it . Also , to counter a little bit about what Prime Minister Orban is saying very effectively to the Hungarian people , in that the corruption of Ukraine is real Everybody needs to know that but that can be dealt with by control of the EU and not having just simply whatever Ukraine wants to do Now . This would be a difference in terms of how the EU policy is run , and Orban is clearly taking advantage of this , talking about the cost , and I think he is correct that it's important not to minimize the cost and ultimately , the pocketbook issue may trump everything else over all other considerations . So thank you for that Well , over all other considerations . So thank you for that . Well , I guess there's another part here of how Viktor Orban is retaining his very outsized importance , and also for Budapest , on those flags . Can you tell me what those flags were about ?
Speaker 3Oh , Henry . So I believe you are referring to our bridges across the Danube connecting Buda and Pest , and anytime you pass those bridges , you cross those bridges . Over the weekend , you may have noticed that Hungarian national flags were floating in the wind next to Israeli flags . Well , this was in honor of the state visit by Benjamin Netanyahu , who was invited by Viktor Orban and spent four couple of days visiting the Budapest capital .
Speaker 2Well , Gabriella , that answers the who , but I'm not sure exactly the why . Why does Netanyahu choose to come to Hungary over any other place ?
Speaker 3Well , what was an invitation by Mr Orbán goes back to last year , after Mr Netanyahu has been issued an arrest warrant by the ICC , the International Criminal Court , the ICC , the International Criminal Court . The very next day , viktor Orban invited Mr Netanyahu , assuring him that he will face no harm when coming and visit Budapest , in Hungary . This visit was to follow up on that invitation , so we can consider it's a symbol and a message to the world . The ICC , as you know , has issued this arrest warrant , but Viktor Orban is claiming that the only rule of law that he follows is the Hungarian law . Therefore , in the joint press conference with Mr Netanyahu during his state visit last weekend , mr Orban went farther and , as he said , treating the ICC as a political , politicized institute now and announcing that he put in a request for Hungary to withdraw from that organization .
Speaker 2Okay , well , that's also very interesting . So if I can recap that a little bit , so Netanyahu was invited right after he was convicted , he comes here and Orban then takes himself out of the ICC . I guess it's also important to note at this point , the United States is also not a member of the ICC , and I think that carries on with a little bit what you're going to talk about here in a moment . But I do think that it's important for our listeners to know about the Jewish presence in Hungary and if you could just mention a few words about that so they could give us some context of Netanyahu's visit .
Speaker 3Of course , and thank you for inserting that part . No later than during the Oscar ceremonies , the movie that won the main title was the Brutalist by Adrian Brody , portraying a Hungarian immigrant fleeing Hungary , and it can relate that Hungary and the Jewish community have really strong ties and have had really strong ties with the rest of the world . As Mr Orban said , the Jewish community can feel the safest in Europe nowadays , in Hungary , and the country and its government are trying really hard to revive the Judaism nowadays and fighting anti-Semitism .
Speaker 2Well , I think that , again , that's a very interesting point . I think it's also important for our listeners to know that there was a terrible tragedy during World War II , June 1944 . Over 400,000 Jews were deported from Budapest , primarily directly to Auschwitz . Of those , 400,000 were from Hungary . So there is an outsized presence in the past of Jews here . It has the largest synagogue and there's a long history of Judaism here and in fact , just to let everybody know , we have often run into Jews on the street in their full traditional religious outfits who are visiting holy sites here . So there is a strong presence and that should be noted . However , just moving on here for a moment , speaking of the ICC , I think it's rather important for
Budapest as Potential Peace Talk Location
Speaker 2our listeners to know that there is another person you were explaining to me that has also been convicted by the ICC , who may have a role in the future of Budapest as an interlocutor between various parties .
Speaker 3That is correct and thank you for giving me that cue . Our listeners might remember that taking a side , or a strong side with the other EU members against the war in Ukraine have been called Vladimir Putin's puppet . Now this is really confusing for some , because we have been mentioning you have been mentioning in your introduction that Donald Trump , during his presidential campaign , called Mr Orban the only friend and the strongest friend that he has . In the politicians' words , so that's very interesting .
Speaker 2So it seems to me that this vector can become something of a reality here in the near future . So let's recap this right now about where Trump is , as we see him on TV every day with a new program . Trump is right now in the midst of a global trade war which he has started and , as it unfolds , seems to be more focused on China , as we can see today , with the so-called 104% tariffs being put on China as the rest of the world looks like it was just a warm-up for Trump . Just today , the EU said that they would negotiate , which means that the massive trade deficit between the EU and the United States could go down if the EU agrees to buy more goods , which I'm sure will include defense as well as ag products , even though EU members might not be very happy about it . Would you agree that the entire Netanyahu visit and , so far , the failure by Trump and the Ukraine-Russia peace talks are then aligned , and would Putin actually come to Hungary at some point in the future , and what purpose would that be ?
Speaker 3Well , that would be a really convenient scenario for both Mr Trump and Mr Orban . However , going back to your point of failing to become the peacemaker in 24 hours or even 100 days , mr Trump has a ticking clock , not only on the Ukraine-Russian war , but also in the Middle East war . So , as we connect the two visits by Mr Netanyahu , first in Hungary and then now , in the beginning of this , in Washington DC , to talk with Mr Trump , they might be a link and a connect to your purpose . Also , as we know , mr Orban has Putin's ears and Mr Orban has also Mr Trump on speed dial . So who knows who is the messenger ? What is the message ? In any way , we can establish that peace talks for both worlds are happening behind the curtains , and regardless which one is the smoke screen the tariff wars or the peace talks . Now , just if I may , I have to put in my little 10 cents with Emmanuel Macron , because lately , on the French news , which I also listen to , emmanuel Macron was located in Egypt for the last couple of days . For the last couple of days , with President Assisi , the King of Jordan and other dignitaries who are interested in the Middle East peace . They had a conference call scheduled with who else than Mr Trump ? And Mr Trump , as we just noted , is in company of Mr Netanyahu .
Speaker 3I don't want to make it . Some might have noted that in Oman they have been Mr Trump's voice talking about Iran's disarmament . Oh , coincidence , mr Netanyahu is sitting next to Mr Trump . We can all think about all these connecting dots , all the little pieces of puzzles , and what will be the next step . Going back to your question , will there be peace talks in Budapest ? Will Mr Putin or Mr Trump , or both , come and shake hands while Mr Orban is smiling in the background ? We may just think that it may happen , but we have to see . I just wanted to say that a lot of rumors have been said that May 8th , which is the quote-unquote Liberation Day , the end of World War II in Russia , maybe Mr Trump will be invited to the ceremony to sit next to Mr Putin . I don't think so . So Budapest is a good , neutral place to do that .
Speaker 2So does Hungary have any role to play in anything else like the Middle East as you just talked about ? Or is it just the broker between the US , russia and Ukraine discussions and , frankly , bringing those discussions back to Europe and out of Saudi , which has produced very little so far , discussions back to ?
Speaker 3Europe and out of Saudi , which has produced very little so far . I'm not sure about all the details , but we have to note that you can never count Orban out . He always has a plan and I'm sure he's speaking to the highest levels of the Trump administration .
Speaker 2Well , I think that's probably pretty true
The Orban Playbook and Trump Connection
Speaker 2. Well , this is not the subject today . Anne Applebaum , who is a senior correspondent for the Atlantic , recently wrote an article in that magazine which said the future of the US is that of Hungary , and it was not very flattering . According to Anne , who has 40 years in Eastern and Central Europe , hungary is floundering economically , and all this blaming of someone else is being adopted by Trump in what the people of Hungary are calling the Orban playbook . So , gabriela , what is it , and will it work for Trump ? Or am I missing something ?
Speaker 3Well , you mentioned that Mr Trump thinks very highly of Mr Orbán , calling him his only and strongest friend in Europe . Orbán and Trump go back to the first Trump administration , since Mr Orbán has been at the head of the Hungarian government for over a decade , being the longest governing prime minister among European countries . Thus he has a lot of experience , he knows everybody and therefore he can put up what we like to call the Orban playbook A couple of tricks that Mr Trump is now adopting and have been following , as Mr Orban has already implemented that in his little laboratory called Hungary . Some of them are successful , some of them are controversial . The more controversial one , and for which he became famous in famous mainly first in the EU countries , were immigration laws Illegal immigration , as he likes to call it , the ones from Syria , afghanistan .
Speaker 3During the Merkel era in Germany , when Germany opened the gates and let the country being flooded by illegal immigrants , mr Orbán decided that Hungary is not welcoming those illegal immigrants and built the walls oh , I think your president currently has been building walls also and is very tough of illegal immigration across the borders , let it be north or south . Also , point number two from the playbook is war on drugs . Mr Orban has a special commission nowadays chasing and catching all kind of drug dealers and making it on the daily news how much they discovered in different parts of the country . Also , mr Orban is really strong , dismantling all type of DEIs , not letting anyone claim any diversity , and he's not doing this in the name of hating each other or being different or not being empathic or sympathetic . He's doing it in the name of child protection and the family values , and mainly the Christian values .
Speaker 3The other , less known but very strong points in this playbook is limiting free speech , limiting the judicial systems and so on and so forth . However , Mr Orban is never taking any mistakes and considering it as its own . Hungary is not prospering because of inflation , because of COVID , because of supply chain issues and energy prices , but it is all the fault of the EU . Eu is withholding money fining Hungary . So Mr Orbán's number one enemy , as we see on the posters , are Ursula von der Leyen and all the EU commissions .
Speaker 2Well , I can see that Trump has definitely followed part of this , and it's never his fault . No matter what happens In the long run , will Hungary continue to have an important role ? Noting that CPAC has been here Well , that means the Americans and the Republican Party . Their national conference was actually in Hungary , in Budapest , twice 2022 , 2023 . When Tucker Carlson came to Europe , he only spoke to two people One was Putin and the other was Orban in extensive interviews . Somehow Orban keeps insinuating himself into every key issue in Europe and beyond , and noting that he is now a serious partner with China , which the EU is not very happy about . Gabriella , are there any closing remarks you would like to make for listeners to know about Hungary , orban and the future of this small but strategically and definitely a place of outside influence ?
Speaker 3We have to note that , beyond the Orban playbook , trump and Orban is claiming to be the party of peace . Both of them are working hard to bring peace to the world . No more war , no more spending , no more fighting , no more death . Who can be against that , are they saying ? Well , there are ways to get to peace , but maybe it's not the one that Mr Trump or Mr Orban would like to be . We'll see . Also , mr Orban is looking not only to the West , towards the US of A , but also to the East , as you mentioned , china , the BRICS countries , and also to the South West , balkans , africa . So he likes to claim that he is the Hungarian people and their prosperity's defender . He's fighting every day for their well-being and he will do whatever it takes . Would it come from the north , from the south , from the west , from the east ? He will take any deals , and the best deals . He is the better deal person . So we will see , and we can follow up later , how this playbook will play out for the Hungarian people .
Speaker 2Well , once again , we'd like to thank our special guest , Gabriela . By the way , those conclusions that she came to with Trump and peace and Orban and peace are not shared , in terms of their methodology at all by any of the or the majority of countries in Western Europe . There have been several elections that have been held . There is definitely a movement to the right , a slight movement to the right , but it is not on the full-on populism of Viktor Orban . Again , next week , we will be speaking to some experts about Germany , which only today has said that they are going to put in hundreds of billions of euros into their economy to develop a defense system as well as a bulwark against the United States and the tariffs that they have . So we'd like to thank Gabriela , who has given us insights to Hungary , Budapest and the playbook of its leader , Prime Minister Viktor Orban .
Speaker 3I would like to thank you in return , Henry , for giving me the opportunity to express what it is that we live here in Budapest , Hungary , and also explain to your listeners all the little details that will be playing out in the next couple of weeks , months or maybe years . I would also like to invite you all to come to Hungary , and especially to Budapest , to see for yourself what we feel is not just the crossroads in diplomacy in Europe , but also the cultural and architectural center of European culture . Just to finish , I would like also to wish you all the best in your home country , the United States of beautiful America .
Speaker 2Again , our thanks to Gabriella . This is Henry R Greenfield signing off from Budapest , hungary , for
Final Thoughts on Hungary's Future
Speaker 2the Greenfield Report .
Speaker 1Thank you for joining us on the Greenfield Report with Henry R Greenfield . We hope today's insights into the ever-shifting geopolitical landscape have sparked your curiosity and broadened your perspective . Stay connected with us for more in-depth discussions and expert solutions . Until next time , keep exploring the world beyond the headlines .