Episode 17- Three Empires and Europe's Uncertain Future: Navigating Challenges 80 Years After WWII

Europe stands at a crossroads 80 years after the end of World War II, facing three existential challenges from China, Russia, and America that threaten its sovereignty and way of life. The continent must decide whether to step up and protect its democracies or allow external powers to determine its future as the post-American century unfolds.

• Xi Jinping's economic invasion of Europe through countries like Hungary threatens European industries
• China is flooding Europe with cheap exports as US tariffs block access to American markets
• Trump and America represent a second challenge as NATO weakens and US support becomes unreliable
• Putin's Russia poses the third and most direct military threat, particularly through the invasion of Ukraine
• European nations enjoy their extensive benefits and vacations while reluctant to increase defense spending
• Germany and other countries must transition from American dependence to self-sufficiency
• Europe faces an inflection point where it must evolve or risk becoming "a permanent open-air museum"
• The next few years will determine if Europeans can overcome internal divisions to present a unified front
• Historical patterns show Europe's tendency to react too late to existential threats

Will Europe step up to meet these challenges, or will they sink into irrelevance and domination by these three powers? If they fail to decide, the future for Europe's children and the continent will reflect this moment when they did not move decisively to take control of their destiny.

Transcript

Introduction to the Greenfield Report

Speaker 1 0:00

Welcome to the Greenfield Report with Henry R Greenfield, your gateway to understanding today's geopolitical landscape. With 50 years of experience across 10 countries, henry shares expert insights on world affairs, offering practical solutions and engaging guest perspectives. Dive into the Greenfield Report for lively discussions on the issues that matter.

WWII in Europe: 80th Anniversary

Speaker 2 0:26

Report for lively discussions on the issues that matter. This is Henry R Greenfield, for the Greenfield Report, with a special report on May 8th, 80 years ago today, when Europe became free of Nazi domination and World War II ended in Europe. At that time, it was six long years of war in Europe and it was finally over. Let us set the stage in a moment by going back, as it will tell us about the future and what we call the three challenges of Europe. Just over 100 years ago, in 1914, europe, as we have discussed before, was a land of empires, both within and without. Four years later, several had actually disappeared, notably the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Russian Empire. Austro-hungary was actually broken up. Ironically, the Russian Empire became an even bigger empire as the Soviet Union. New countries were formed everywhere on the continent the Balkans in the south and the Baltics in the north, who were then absorbed into that Soviet empire. Poland reappeared after 130 years and Germany was punished. That punishment, however, was harsh. There were steep reparations, restrictions later leading to inflation, then the rise of fascism and finally Hitler took over a very sick society in Germany. Twelve years after that, it was all over and ended in flames. Or was it? By 1945, europe had weathered not one but two world wars in just 30 years. Ostensibly, germany had a hand in starting both, and they have definitely lost both Badly. The second time there would be no doubt that there would be no more German empires after World War II.

Post-War Europe and Cold War

Speaker 2 2:10

May 8th was that culmination of six years of death and destruction, of change, yet another realignment and finally moving into the Cold War and new empires to fight it out, including the Americans who now dominated the world. But on that day, in May 8, in 1945, it was peace after utter and total destruction. Look around on that day, britain had survived the Blitz bombings right up until the end, with V2 rockets flying over from Germany. France had been bombed and ravaged by the Germans, and then the Allies landed on June 4th, bringing freedom but some destruction. However, paris was thankfully spared. On and on it went through Belgium, the Battle of the Bulge or destroying ancient monasteries, as the Allies worked their way up Italy, across, then through Austria, the Anschluss country that began it all. Then Hungary, battles everywhere, including the Netherlands, and finally the Allies and the Russians met together in Berlin. And what did they meet there to do? To divide the spoils of war.

Speaker 2 3:15

The Soviets remember this day, perhaps more than most. They suffered the most. More than 20 million died, some say up to 25 million. Stalingrad was the extent of the German push in the war and over a million Germans came into that city, but when they left only 80,000 surrendered. The rest were dead. Over a three-year battle in the snow and devastation of Stalingrad, poles died in the millions as the war went back and forth across their relatively flat country. The Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, which was then smashed. Six million Jews died, more millions of gypsies and others in the Holocaust in places like Auschwitz and Dachau.

Speaker 2 3:57

Then the new war came. It was called the Cold War, a nuclear standoff. More decades, the gulags of the Soviet system, the Warsaw Pact, places like Hungary which were designated as the breadbasket no more an empire, just a place to grow wheat for the masses. But it was rotten underneath and it all collapsed in 1989 with the fall of the wall, and later the end of history was proclaimed by Fukuyama and the Soviet Union itself was gone just two years later. It all seemed well.

Speaker 2 4:32

Each anniversary thereafter, on May 8th, was and is always marked by national celebrations, each in their own way. In the UK, this 80th celebration was as normally a somber one, a two-minute silence for the entire country. And on the other end of the spectrum there's Russia with, as always, its tanks, and now a special guest, xi Jinping of China, who now menaces Europe on several levels. Military is not yet here for them, but it's coming. For now it is economic the peace dividend spoken about incessantly, new alliances forming as Trump draws America away from the world. Now let's fast forward again, and there are new organizations that are even popping up. One is called IMEC, india Middle East Europe Economic Corridor, which I will be reporting on live next week from Budapest.

Speaker 2 5:27

Events which were stagnant with little change over the past 30 years, blew up when Ukraine was invaded by Russia. Was Putin wishing to reconstitute the Russian or Soviet empire, the loss of which he so greatly laments? Was George Bush the ultimate fool of looking into Putin's eyes and seeing Putin's soul, which is nothing more than really your garden variety thug? Europe, meanwhile, has been thrilled to have more and more benefits, more and more 10-week vacations, relatively open borders. Merkel invited in millions from Syria, and Islam has grown on the continent. Now there is a reaction pushing back yes to Nordstrom and the pipeline, then no once Ukraine was invaded by Russia, and then yes to Biden and US LNG, and now possibly no due to Trump and the tariff war.

China: Europe's First Challenge

Speaker 2 6:21

Europeans are still awakening from their 80-year slumber, buffered by the US and its nuclear umbrella, which we have explored from time to time on several angles on the Greenfield Report. Yet there is a pattern emerging. The pattern is there are three challenges, three individuals leading three empires one for the US, one for the Russian empire as reconstituted and fed by Trump and Europe, and then definitely the Chinese empire, who have eyes on Europe one way or the other. First, let's talk about China. The first challenge for Europe. Obviously, xi wants into Europe. Last year, when Xi came to Europe, he actually stopped in Hungary for three days, a small country of only 10 million people. Well, why would he do that? He did that because he signed several agreements, including EV battery factories, which is his way into Europe, as Hungary is a member of the EU, a member of NATO and, of course, the Schengen Zone, which means that, once inside, xi and China can send their products, especially if they're made in Europe, throughout the continent.

Speaker 2 7:33

Who is this a threat to? Well, the main threat, of course, is to the German car industry, which outsourced so much of their technology to China, and have they been rewarded with that? Well, unfortunately not. A crashing market share for the Germans in China and the rest of the Europeans who were making cars there, and now a wholesale replacement, seemingly overnight, by over 100. I'm going to repeat that Over 100 EV companies were at the Shanghai Auto Show just a few weeks ago and who's suffering? Were at the Shanghai Auto Show just a few weeks ago. And who's suffering? Bmw, vw, mercedes and, of course, the Americans, where, at one time, not many years ago, when I was there, we were all proud to say that the Buick brand was leading China. Well, today you can hardly find them on the street and they have been replaced by those capsules that the Chinese are calling cars, when they actually seem to be acting more like individual little airplanes that are going around on wheels.

Speaker 2 8:32

Is that to be the future of Europe? Xi is once again smiling with Putin on their May 8th celebration in Moscow. With his tanks, putin seems to be on the ascendant again. Europe seems to be weak and ripe for the taking. A complacent society all over again, as in 1914? Then in 1939?, with all those idyllic romps that we've read about to be followed by what? Epic death and destruction or something else. This time, putin and Russia are not the only ones threatening war. It is an economic war from China, or is it refugees from the Middle East and immigration from Africa and beyond?

Speaker 2 9:13

For the rest of Europe, is it the declining birth rates? More vacations, more benefits, more, as the French call them which I love this their ponds and viaducts, which means an endless series of vacation that you can take day after day. In this case, which is most interesting right now, the very merry month of May, it is now the 8th, and then there's the Pentecost, and there were before that May Day when no one attends actually church, but Pentecost is still a holiday. The entire month of May in France means even less than the normal 30-hour work week. Little is open, not even restaurants, never mind. The lines were long for croissants and baguettes, and before the shops and the brangeries closed.

America and Trump: Second Challenge

Speaker 2 9:59

And still the challenges loom over their heads. Will China take the car industry of Europe? Of course, unless Europe protects itself with tariffs as punitive as those in the US. But Europe is ripe for Chinese dumping of products heretofore heading to the US, but now they must be redirected somewhere else. And who has the money? That's right Europe, you can expect a flood of cheap imports, as China still refuses to do more than export its way out of its problems. Every market report says the Chinese, in spite of incentives, are not buying. Jobs are still scarce, they are not traveling, foreigners are not coming to China, the economic and tariff war is real and while China can make everything, who is going to buy? Again, you got it Europe. Then there is America and Trump.

Speaker 2 10:49

The second challenge Gone are those golden days of US hegemony where the euros complained and complained while the Americans spent and spent. Just months ago it was wow, there's too many tourists in Barcelona. Will the slumping US dollar mean fewer Americans who, by the way, last year accounted for one quarter of the entire haul of money that they spent and nothing was done to spare on their Euro vacations with those great cruise liners like the Disney Express? I know I had several family members and they absolutely loved it and spent a ton of money. Again, a realignment caused by Trump. Nato has been downgraded, more and more has to go to defense for the continent. Governments have been rising and falling, similar to the past. Or will europe actually stand up and protect its democracies this time, democracies that, ironically, were literally created by the us the marshall plan and others others and now the US is abandoning them. How deep are these democratic principles in the old world, as the new world seems to be moving on and moving into a very different direction, lectured by neophytes like JD Vance, whose ambitions have no bounds, or the drunkard who cannot even do a chat properly without his wife coaching him, pete Hegseth, as the so-called Defense Secretary of the United States? The US clearly cannot be counted on and in many ways now could be seen as actually an enemy, at least an enemy in the long run for the continent, and that means the enemy for their future. After all, trump and Rubio have completely failed.

Speaker 2 12:32

Surprise, surprise, with Putin and the various nonsense ceasefires unilaterally declared by Russia. And now there's going to be, at least they say, a 30-day ceasefire to be attempted by Ukraine. But will Russia pay any attention? Most likely not. But the military supplies are the key question here, as will Ukraine get any more from the United States? Those military supplies for Ukraine are running out and they're no more in sight. Sure, europe, and Germany in particular, is gearing up and they can probably replace maybe some of the tanks, maybe some of the light arms, but who's going to replace those Patriot missiles? Who's going to replace the drones? We have heard encouraging reports by the Ukrainians that their drone program is actually working, but there is no doubt and Volodymyr Zelensky has said over and over that Ukraine cannot survive without the United States supporting them, and we are talking about military support. The rest of Europe, can they step up? That's a big question. Thus, the challenge number two is clearly yet another open question for Europe.

Speaker 2 13:45

Finally, there is the obvious, and that is Vladimir Putin, who, regardless of whether he is a real imperialist or just a thug, in the end doesn't matter, as Hitler was just the little corporal in the right place at the right time. A failed artist, rejected in Vienna and his homeland and pissed off, I guess with someone needing to be blamed, and he blamed everybody, but mostly the Jews. Like Trump, like Putin, hitler had his enemies and Putin is working his way through them and he will not stop. Trump is purging and if you bow down to him, you might make it through and even survive, but only with him as king. Putin is obviously the real threat and so far, europe is always talking, talking and talking, and Chancellor Merz finally made it through after two votes and months, and now he is the leader of Germany, like Carney in Canada yet another banker, by the way. It seems Murs' primary platform is anti-Trump and correspondingly less dependence on the United States. But it costs a lot, a real lot, to do that and it will take years and also, by the way, a change in mentality. We discussed this with Mark Fino, mark who is an expert on European democracy as well as nuclear disarmament. Mark believes that the German people have not yet made that decision to be able to move into a more defense-oriented posture to defend their homeland. Thus there is an inflection point here in history in Europe.

Speaker 2 15:19

The 80th was marked by the last of the veterans, some freed on the final days of the war from POW camps. I listened to a man who's 103 years old, who became free that day, and he was quite inspirational for anyone to hear. Others from the Holocaust are still around, victims who were young but somehow made it through. The next few years will tell whether Europe breaks away from its endless summer vacation and dalliances with far-left socialism or, more likely, the current threat of the right-wing Orban autocracies. Can they afford just to be a loose organization controlled by bureaucrats whose only interest in Brussels seems to be their endless committee assignments. Talk about fiddling while Rome is burning. It is not yet in Europe.

Europe's Decisive Moment

Speaker 2 16:08

It is spring, the 80th since Hitler shot himself and Germany surrendered unconditionally. This year it is not the poppies of World War I, it is not the celebrations of the fall of the wall, it is not the proud ally of last year's 80th, the D-Day of walking arm in arm Americans, french, british, canadians and others. It is a new day, a new reality, and Europe has not yet decided what to do. To step up means to change and so far, what I can see, no one is really willing to take that first step. The peoples of Europe have enjoyed their democracies. They enjoyed their benefits, their American nuclear umbrellas protecting them by the way, complaining all the time about the Americans, they are reluctant to give up anything, including their gas-guzzling German BMWs, and they lie to themselves to this day about diesel, as though the VW scandal did not exist.

Speaker 2 17:04

Many are still blaming each other, the constant Euro approach to the past, and others still talk about empires being lost, including hungary, which I'm always amazed when I am there, that there are maps everywhere of the so-called greater hungary, which is about three times the size of current hungary. Europe has much to decide in the next few years, a decade on from today, which will look very, very, in my view, from what we are seeing right now. For the genie is out of the bottle. Europe's American century is not only over. The next invasion, which is that of Chinese products and the influence of Russia, are at the gates, are right now and they are here.

Speaker 2 17:45

The question, as always in Europe, is will they step up or will they wait until it overwhelms them?

Speaker 2 17:51

I'm reminded of the infamous quote that Churchill was alleged to have said, and many say it wasn't, but it's a great quote nonetheless.

Speaker 2 18:00

Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing once all other possibilities have been exhausted.

Speaker 2 18:06

Whether that is true or not, the same must be asked, and can it be said, about the Europeans? Are they ready to do the right thing after exhausting all of their excuses on protecting themselves, their markets and their ways of life and, of course, complaining and blaming the Americans? Will they step up and change, or will they let the three challenges of Trump, xi and Putin overwhelm them and make Europe a permanent open-air museum, as so many have said? The next few months and years will hold that answer. This is Henry R Greenfield signing off from France in the beautiful month of May, where Europe is trying to decide what is its future.

Speaker 2 18:49

Will they step up and meet those three challenges that we have discussed today, or will they sink into irrelevance and domination by any one or combination of those three powers? If they do not decide, the future for them, their children and the continent will be one that we will look back on in this moment that they did not move forward decisively to take control back to their cells and away from these three large empires that hover over Europe.

Speaker 1 19:22

Thank you for joining us on the Greenfield Report with Henry R Greenfield. We hope today's insights into the ever-shifting geopolitical landscape have sparked your curiosity and broadened your perspective. Stay connected with us for more in-depth discussions and expert solutions. Until next time, keep exploring the world beyond the headlines.