Episode 48- Europe’s Cold Shoulder After Trump Signs Peace With Iran

Trump signs an Iran US peace deal in France and the G7 applauds, but the mood underneath is colder and more consequential than the photo op. Reporting from the ground, we walk through why Europe breathes easier about oil, LNG, and the Strait of Hormuz while also acting like the transatlantic relationship has entered a new, harsher phase.

We unpack the two stories happening at once: the private frustration with Washington and the public praise designed to keep Trump engaged. From the Versailles spectacle to carefully timed congratulations, European leaders look like they’re managing risk, not celebrating friendship. We also dig into the geopolitical math behind the rhetoric: who funds Ukraine now, what it means when NATO starts to feel less credible, and how higher oil prices plus softer sanctions enforcement can translate into more resources for Putin’s war machine, including Iranian drone supply chains.

From Israel’s sharp backlash to China’s patient strategy of non-intervention, we connect the dots between security, energy markets, and political incentives. We end with what this moment signals for Europe’s defense spending, the next round of tariff threats, and why a “peace deal” can still leave the former Western alliance more fragmented than ever. If you care about geopolitics beyond the headlines, subscribe, share this with a friend, and leave a review. What part of the G7 story do you think most people are missing?

Transcript

Welcome To The Greenfield Report

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Welcome to the Greenfield Report with Henry R. Greenfield, your gateway to understanding today's geopolitical landscape. With 50 years of experience across 10 countries, Henry shares expert insights on world affairs, offering practical solutions and engaging guest perspectives. Dive into the Greenfield Report for lively discussions on the issues that matter.

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This is

Europe Turns On Trump

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Henry R. Greenfield reporting from France, with a group of seven, which is wrapping up under the shadow of the Iran-US peace deal, which Trump signed in person today in France. While the Europeans in particular are pleased to see a peace deal as they are highly dependent on oil and the LNG, in other words, natural gas, coming from the Gulf, if Trump was looking for validation and support and congratulations, it seemed that that ship had sailed for Trump and the Europeans. The Europeans, while they appeared to be done with Trump and are working diligently with Canada, for instance, to marginalize him far more than the simple shutout that Annela Merkel famously arranged in Trump's first term, this was far different. Who knows who is to blame for this the most? But the Europeans seemed to be dropping all pretense of friendship and collegiality with Trump, as the United States has become exactly what everyone feared. The pariah rogue superpower that no one wants to deal with. They don't want Heggseth around, as in some of them call him Captain Pete, as he is known in Europe, constantly according to the Europeans, attacking them in every chance he gets. His most recent being that everything went wrong in Europe starts with uncontrolled migration. It matters not that Europe is seriously trying to grapple with immigration, trying, but not totally successfully, it should be added. Hexeth, however, has his marching orders from Trump, and that is, Europeans are freeloaders on the US, no matter what they do, and Trump wants nothing to do with them. The Ukraine-Russian war, for instance, is now almost totally a European-funded war, where collectively the Europeans now pay for almost 100% of the support to Ukraine. Remember, compared that to the Biden time, where Biden started off at about 80% came from the United States, totaling around $110 billion Trump. Money has only been a very small paltry amount of about $5 billion and nothing in quite a long time. By taking the United States out of the support side, Trump, in effect, has all but taken the United States out of the entire game. Trump's tacit and indirect support of Putin in particular has more than gotten on the nerves of not just Zelensky in Ukraine, but also the key leaders in Europe. Don't forget that Putin has been allowed by Trump, and along with Iran, by the way, to be able to sell oil at the current inflated prices per barrel going up well over $100 to anybody who can buy from him, meaning that it has gone up for Putin on a per barrel basis and no longer sanctioned from around $60 to that over $100 a barrel mark. That means that Trump is highly supporting Putin in his funding efforts for his war, where he has to, among other things, buy drones from where else? Iran. Don't forget also that MERS of Germany has for the past couple of months characterized the United States as the loser to Iran in this war. Trump retaliated through Hegseth to take out 5,000 frontline troops who would have been available if Russia hadn't made a move on NATO. NATO, of course, is fast fading into history, and the entire fake Putin is afraid of NATO is now being seen by just about everyone but the Americans as a joke and as an excuse to attack Ukraine. Don't forget also that recently Orban of Hungary was voted out, so the one and only real supporter in the EU and also a NATO member had been Hungary. That is no longer the case. So the Americans have been quite isolated on this. The Americans who seem to be totally preoccupied with whatever Hijinx Trump is up to next participated in the G7, but there really were no major announcements.

Praise For The Cameras At G7

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Now that was one view. But now let's look at it in another way. For the cameras and for Trump, whose back was up to the wall, and he lapped up his agreement with Iran. There was substantial praise all around from the Big Four, MERS of Germany again, yes, that same MERS, the equally embattled Starmer of the United Kingdom, Maloney of Italy, and the host Macron of France, who was absolutely determined to get Trump to stay for the entire event. Unlike last year, when Trump dissed Kearney and left him in the lurch in Canada leaving early, Macron had the stunning Louis XIV Palace of Versailles, where Macron pulled off a minor coup by inviting Trump to a dinner fit for the king that he perceives himself to be, and yes, Trump stayed. The other story also includes some vague promises by Trump to assist on Ukraine, and the Europeans did their best to say, congratulations, you won in Iran, and let's not forget the war with Russia. Trump was accommodating as he always is when his back is to the wall, and Macron pushed his vaunted friendship, which I note in quotes, as no one really likes Trump and no one is really his friend, to put the Ukraine situation back on the agenda for Trump to consider.

Israel’s Backlash And China’s Advantage

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Meanwhile, in Israel, Netanyahu and the Israelis said it was a total disaster. And capitulation by Trump to Iran and every paper and online podcast was focused on what Trump didn't get, as really he didn't get anything other than a way to escape from the mess that he and Bibi created, which was to open up the Strait of Hormuz. Trump also earned little plaudits for his thanking of Xi Jinping and Putin, no less, for not making it even more difficult with him on Iran. Of course, what Trump never seems to get, and we have reported over and over, no one wanted the war with Iran, and it was not to China's advantage to see the U.S. wallow in a mess. Don't forget, China also has oil that comes out of the Gulf and through the Strait of Hormuz. So they didn't want it to be cut off either. The flip side on that was China had nothing to gain by getting involved, as they continue to do what China has always done with Trump. Let him make all the mistakes. Let him take the U.S. down yet another step, which seems to be inexorable at this point. Let Trump waste what is it, a hundred billion U.S. dollars on a war and counting that the U.S. did not win and could not afford. Let Trump draw down on the strategic weapons supply to the point where Trump today had to invoke the Defense Production Act as the U.S. wasted, according to Trump, this is now, some people say even higher, 45% of its most powerful high-tech weaponry to take out, what was it, a few light boats, the so-called Iranian Navy, and through repeated attempts, most failing at knocking out the missile sites and totally failing, and not even including these, nor the drone program, which Iran sells to Putin to bomb Ukraine. That's right, they were not even included in the MOU. The papering over and smiles belied what is really going on, and everyone at the G7 knew it. Trump had something to sign, something to show for his war with Iran, and everyone was smart enough to congratulate him and let him take a little victory lap and a nice dinner at the Palace of Versailles. In return,

Tariffs, NATO Drift, And Europe Rearms

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they hope to get off lightly on the next round of tariffs, which are about to come back, according to Trump, as he will never give up his dream of taxing the American people to death and punishing his allies. Somehow this seems to be a deeply held gold of Trump, no matter who says it is illegal, such as the United States Supreme Court. He just finds another outdated law or regulation to go off Don Quixote-like and charge at that windmill, which of course he hates, as he even paid the French one billion US dollars in a penalty to cancel a large wind turbine series off the northeast coast of the United States. In the end, Europe has breathed a sigh of relief. They get it, that they have to change, that they have to actually fund their own defense now and cannot count on NATO. That Trump is a totally unreliable ally, and they have been heartened, actually lucky, let's say, that Ukraine has somehow held back Russia and harmed it to the tune of over a half million dead for the Russians and their mercenaries in the now almost four and a half year war. Again, longer than World War I, and who knows, it may go longer than World War II, the way things are going, as neither side will give in. Ukraine

Ukraine’s Long War And Trump’s Theatrics

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simply cannot give in for obvious reasons. It is, as they would say, an existential crisis for its actual existence. And Putin cannot give in, as this has been his wet dream to get it back, at least a core part of the former Soviet Empire, Ukraine, a crown jewel for him and a prize worth fighting for to the bitter end. Thus, Europe has bought some time. It could literally be fleeting, while the world laughed at Trump saying if the peace works, he will take all the credit, and if it doesn't, he will blame Vice President J.D. Vance, who's been out there pushing and pushing, saying what a great deal it is, who is going over to sign on behalf of the United States in a face-to-face ceremony. In the end, everyone got it. It was all just theatrics for Trump to get out of the Gulf War and move back to his real agenda. Not that the Gulf is not a key component in his downgrading of Europe, in moving his untraceable money and crypto and oil control to the Gulf. Not hardly a downgrade, but Europe at least was there for the bright, shining moment, and not yet another squalid argument over what is going on and what is going to happen next in the seemingly endless USA-Iran war. Maybe Trump even gave in more than he wanted to to have this done and to have it to be able to be signed at the G7 in France. It matters not to him what he gave up. Money, oil, end of sanctions against Iran. What matters is he got out of the war and went back to the business of making money for himself, his family, and his companies, now all not only untraceable, but of course unauditable, because you remember that agreement where Trump made a deal with himself to make a permanent, unauditable situation for everything related to him, his family, and his companies. Yes, it was a good way to end his trip at the palace. Raise a toast. Remember, he doesn't drink, but the champagne glasses were full for everyone else nonetheless, and everyone could pretend that all is well in the former Western Alliance.

Closing Thoughts And Sign Off

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This is Henry R. Greenfield reporting from France, where a sigh of relief went through the continent that the war between the United States and Iran is at least temporarily over, and of course, at least they got the Ukraine-Russia war back on the front burner instead of lost in one of Trump's many issues in battles with the world.

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We hope today's insights into the ever-shifting geopolitical landscape have sparked your curiosity and broadened your perspective. Stay connected with us for more in depth discussions and expert solutions. Until next time, keep exploring the world beyond the headlines.