Final Four: Women's AO Semi-final Preview

In this episode, I'll take a look at and provide a quick preview of the women's semi-finals at the Australian Open, I provide a brief analysis of the performances and paths of Aryna Sabalenka, Elina Svitolina, Jessica Pegula, and Elena Rybakina. Then sum it all up with a prediction of who I think will make it to the final.

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Transcript

Matipa Ruzive (00:00)
Hello and welcome back to everyone watches women's tennis. A podcast that is solely focused on the women's game, giving you regular updates about what is taking place on the WTA tour, both on and off the court. Hello everyone. And thank you so much for listening. Welcome or welcome back to this episode. We are in the midst of the Australian Open, not even in the midst. We're near the end. We are at the very, very pointy end.

We're about to reach the summit of the Australian Open. And I just thought since I did not provide you a preview to the entire tournament, I should provide you at least a semi-final preview. So that's what we'll be doing today. This one will definitely be a very quick episode because I'm just going through the two semi-finals that will be played and just giving you.

a little recap and then giving you my predictions going forward. So before I start on the semi-final previews, the quarterfinals that were played, I'm not reviewing them or recapping them, but I did want to mention that this year at Australian Open, the seeds performed very, very well.

We had six of the top seeds make the quarterfinal, which is the first time this has happened at the Australian Open since 1991. So that's 35 years. we had the top six seeds make the quarterfinals and the other two players in the quarterfinals were seeded as well. They just weren't in the top eight, but it's great to see that level of consistency and the people that should be performing, performing how they should.

if that makes sense. that's why, especially right now, I'm such a big proponent of the women's game, because I think, in my humble opinion, it is a lot more interesting. And I guess there are more variables in it, but when I say variables, it's like a specific set of people. So we've got a specific set of people that are being super consistent, but there's still variability, there's still some sort of surprise.

in what could happen, but with consistency along with it. Like when we make it to a quarterfinal, I expect to see Sabalanka there, I expect to see Jessica Pegula there, I expect to see Iga there, I expect to see Coco there. And that's what we got. And that's what we've been getting for the past two years.

Okay, that's all I wanted to say on that. Just give a bit of props to the seeds. Because when all the seeds fall early, it's such a big topic and people love to talk about it. So I think when they've done their job, as they should, to be honest, maybe I shouldn't be congratulating it because that is what they should be doing. But it's also something that has stood out in this tournament. And typically with the Australian Open, the seeds do fall early because it's the start of the year. So sometimes people are not in the groove of things, but they've done very, very well.

and With the semi-finals we do have the number one seed. We've got the number 13th seed We've got the number fifth seed and we've got the number sixth seed.

But without further ado, let's get into it. So the first semi-final I'll be previewing is the one that will be played first on the night, which would be Aryna Sabalenka versus Elina Svitolina. So looking just as a overview, Aryna leads this head to head five to one and their last meeting was in Madrid on clay and she won that in straight sets six, three, seven, five and their past meetings.

I think a couple have been close so it'll be interesting to see what the dynamics of this match will be so we'll just start with Sabalenka I'll go quickly go through her route to the final so not the finals sorry her route to the semi-final we'll start with round one she played wild card

Titi Rakatomanga Rajaonah and she won that in straight sets 6-4-6-1. I'll be honest the start was a bit shaky in that match she because ⁓ Titi is a she's a lefty and that caused some issues for Sabalenka ⁓ in the early stages of that match but eventually she got in her rhythm and was able to put it away quickly. Then second round she played Zhu Xuan Bai

and she won that match 6-3 6-1. Then third round she beat Anastasia Potapova and that one was two tie breaks and she won that 7-6 7-6. Then round four she played Victoria Mboko and she won that straight set as well so that was 6-1 7-6. And then her last match quarterfinals she beat another youngster in Iva Jović and she won that match 6-3 6-love. So that's looking at

Aryna's path to the final and then we'll take a look at Elina Svitolina's path to the final so I keep saying final it's the semi-final my gosh sorry sorry if I just yelled in your ear so Elina Svitolina in the first round she played Christina Buska I'm not sure anyway she won that in straight set six four six one then she

she won that 7-5-6-1. Then third round she played Diana Shnaider she won that in straight sets as well 7-6-6-3 and then round four was against Mirra Andreeva which was 6-2-6-4 and then the quarterfinals she beat Coco Gauff 6-1-6-2 and So both of them have had a pretty

pretty straightforward journey to the finals, winning, you know, in straight sets and both of them. Okay, so first, since we know their routes to the semi-final, I'll take a look at Aryna Sabalenka's pros and cons. So first of all, she leads that head to head and...

that means she walks into the match with a lot of confidence. And when Aryna is confident and especially when she leads a head to head, she plays a bit more free with less pressure on her. then as well as compared to Elina Svitolina she has more experience at this stage. Elena has more experience playing tennis because she's older by four years. But

In terms of getting to this stage of a Grand Slam, Aryna definitely has more experience considering she's been in seven finals. And then not just like more experience in Grand Slams, more at the Australian Open. She's been in this position for the past three years, not including this year. So 2023, 2024, 2025, she made it to the final of the Australian Open and winning two out of three of those times. And as I've been watching,

The first early rounds, I'm not gonna lie, I was not impressed. Like obviously she won, as she should, being the world number one, but the wins were not convincing. The only time the wins became convincing was...

in like round four and the quarterfinals, but she has been playing better as the tournament progresses and that's kind of what you see in champions. And then another thing that I've just noticed personally is her serving is the best has been in the past 18 months because there's been a lot of matches I've watched Aryna where she wins a match and she wins easily, but she's not winning based on her serve. She's winning based on her return skills.

because she'll get broken in a game that she shouldn't be getting broken in because of a misplaced serve or double fault unnecessarily. And then the game after when her opponent is serving, she'll break them love 40. So it's nice to see that that serving has been consistent and has been something that she can fall back on again. And then lastly for the pros, she fights till the end. She fights till the

very very end. when I say she fights to the end I'm talking about how anytime she's lost in a grand slam whether that be in the finals or the semis in the past three years it has been in three sets.

she hasn't lost in straight sets in a grand slam since

the US open in 2020. So I think I've said on this podcast before, if you're gonna get rid of her in a grand slam, you're gonna have to kill her.

And then looking on the flip side of that, the cons. So this tournament, Sabalenka has had a lot of trouble closing out sets and or matches. in round two, she was on the road to win the first set six love against Bai, but then she got broken when she was serving it out.

and kind of left a little bit of a door open for her opponent. She still ended up winning the set 6-3 but it shouldn't have gotten to that point. Then with Potapova she had I think in the first set a chance to serve it out she couldn't do it and they ended up playing two tie breaks or she would be up a break and then Potapova came to break her and they stayed on serve. And then most recently it was the game against Mboko. She couldn't serve it

serve out the match in the second set and they ended up playing a tiebreak. Again she won the tiebreak but it shouldn't have gotten in that to that point. and I understand there's so much pressure when you're serving out a match but it happens too often and when you're playing players with less experience or that are less clutch you can get away with it but the level has gone up significantly.

You're playing someone much more experienced who won't let you get away with mistakes like that. then the next thing is she can get quite shaky at the semi-final stage. It hasn't happened a lot in recent, in the past couple of years, but that used to be her barrier. So it could still be something in the mind. I don't think so. Like I'm not putting too much weight on this as a con, but it's still something that's there. And then she's facing a more experienced opponent.

I would say this is probably the most experienced opponent she's played so far. And that's different because they don't just go away or I'll say it's harder to crush the spirit of someone who's been playing four more years than you or at least who's four years older than you in Elina Svitolina. And then the last thing that I've noticed as well is she's only played one night match.

and that was the opening round and she hasn't played at night since then. So the conditions will be different and it might take a little bit of time for her to get used to those conditions. And then moving on to her opponent, Elina Svitolina.

So starting with the pros for Svitolina, she is quite high on confidence, especially after her last two wins. She beat third ranked Coco and then she beat eighth seed Andreeva And both of them were favorites going into the match against Svitolina. But in my opinion, I don't think a lot of players can be outright favorites when they play Svitolina.

So yeah, she's high on a lot of confidence and again, she also hasn't dropped a single set and just like Sabalenka, she's also on a 10 match winning streak. So unfortunately someone's going to lose that streak in this match. Another thing on the plus side for Svitolina is she's quite comfortable in the conditions. She's played her last three matches at night.

So she's probably very used to and comfortable with the conditions. And then there's no pressure on her. She's not coming into this match the favorite. She's behind in the head to head significantly. It's her first Australian Open semi-final. She doesn't really have anything to prove to anyone else but herself that she can make it to a slam final because surprisingly Svitolina has never been in a final for slam, which I still think is insane.

But yeah, there's just no pressure on her. It's due to, I guess her age. I'm sure a lot of people are like, she's been in her peak and she's done now. So anything, anything else, any other achievements are extra. But we saw Madison Keys win a slam in the later part of her career.

And then lastly, the other thing that I think, well actually, and even the way she's playing right now, she's playing with a lot more aggression than she normally does. And she took a break at the end of September last year and it seems like she's worked on her game completely and just has, what's the word? She's gotten better, like incrementally in a lot of things. So her movement is better. Her anticipation is better.

Her aggression is higher. Her returns are better with more power. she's just looking like a better rounded player. And then lastly, for the pros section, she doesn't beat herself. Elina Svetlina is not a player that beats herself. She doesn't lose because she made thousands of unforced errors and never really played the game. You have to beat her. She's not gonna hand the game to you.

And then on the flip side, on the cons, as I've mentioned before, the head to head is not in her favor. It's very lopsided. Another thing is she's never been able to make it past the semi-final hurdle in her past three semis. She's made a lot of quarterfinals. She's made three semis and she just hasn't been able to push past to make it to a final. And just the matchup, the style of playing is not in her favor. We can see that from the head to head.

It's a matchup thing, being like, okay, I can beat Coco and Coco can beat Sabalenka. So in my head, I should be able to beat Sabalenka, which obviously anyone can beat anyone. sometimes in tennis, it's just about matchups. It's like speaking of Sabalenka, she's a world number one. So in your head, she should be able to beat everyone. And she does, but there are some players.

that are ranked lower than her that give her trouble and that she finds very, very difficult to beat. that's just a thing on matchups. It's not about this one specifically. And with all of that being said, to put it all together, my prediction is Sabalenka in three sets. I think...

the quality of opponent has gone up especially for actually I think the quality of opponent has gone up for both of them but especially for Svitolina and the experience that Sabalenka has at this stage can't be overlooked and not just that I think this is like her favorite or at least second favorite Grand Slam after the US Open and

On Svitolina's end, the ball will be coming to her a lot faster than it did against Coco because Coco didn't even have a chance to get in play and faster than some of the other players. Probably the closest one would be Diana Shnaider and Mirra Andreeva. But Mirra never got a foothold in that game and Diana Shnaider tried, but she doesn't hit the ball as fast or as deep as Sabalenka

I will say Aryna needs to be patient because

Svitolina is one of the best movers in the game and has some of the best anticipation. So some balls that would be winners against someone else won't be winners against her. So she would have to be a bit more patient. And I think she has become more patient in her game and trust her game. So that's my prediction that Sabalenka win. But for Svitolina to win the match, she kind of has to take the racket out of Sabalenka's hands, which she did to Coco. She essentially

She took the racket out of Coco's hands and Coco never had a chance. So she has to be the more aggressive player. And I think, don't know, I would say she has to extend rallies, but I actually think she has to get a jump on Sabalenka and finish points faster than her. But I'm not sure if she has the firepower to do that. So all of that being said, stick to my prediction. Three sets Sabalenka.

Then moving on to the second semifinal, we've got Jessica Pegula who seeded sixth against Elena Rybakina who is seeded fifth. Their head-to-head is equal, which is 3-3. And then the last time they met was at the WTA finals on hard court inside. And Rybakina won that match 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.

So I'll be honest, there's not that much separating them because other matches were played, weren't played in the last like 18 months. They were played in like 2023 and before that. So it's really hard to say because both women are different players now. And.

And looking at their history for people that are quite top players, they have not played each other a lot or a lot recently when they've both been at, I guess, maybe their peak or just being in the top 10. So there's not a lot to go on in terms of their history. But we'll still look at it a little bit. So starting with Jessica Pegula's road to the semifinals round one, she played Anastasia Zakharova. She won that 6-2-6-1.

Second round, played fellow American McCartney Kessler. She won that 6-love 6-2. Then in the third round, she played Oksana Selekhmeteva and she won that 6-3-6-2. Then she beat reigning champion Madison Keys in round four, 6-3-6-4. And then the quarterfinals, she beat the fourth seed, another American, Amanda Anisimova, 6-2-7-6. Then looking at her opponent's path to the semis.

Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina played Kaja Juvan in the first round. She won that 6-4, 6-3. Then in the second round, she played Varvara Gracheva and she beat her 7-5, 6-2. Then third round, she played Teresa Valentova. She won that match 6-2, 6-3. Then against Elise Mertens in round four, she won 6-1, 6-3.

And in the quarterfinals she beat world number two, Iga Swiatek 7-5-6-1. So, I'll be honest with you. These two players are playing very similar. They look like they have the same amount of confidence.

I actually would have liked this to be the final. If I'm honest, this would have been a great final. All right, let's start with Jessica Pegula and the pros and cons for her in this semi-final match. So Jess hasn't yet dropped a set and she's been like walking all over everyone she's played except like...

And this is more of a, which she kind of didn't walk all over her until the final, final set, which was a tie break. But yeah, she hasn't dropped a set yet and she's serving really, really well. Probably the best I've ever seen her serve throughout a whole two weeks. But for Jess has been consistent throughout this whole, this whole tournament. And then she's also played a very high level of.

of opponent like the past two rounds she was played the ninth seed and the fourth seed and she's also played players in Madison Keys and Amanda Anisimova that play in a very similar style to Elena Rybakina so they are ball strikers hit the ball hard and hit the ball more on the flat side not as flat as Jess but on the flatter side

And some of these things as well that I'm about to say aren't technical tennis things, but she looks confident with no pressure and pretty unflappable in a way. And another thing I think she can tick is that she has been past the semi-final before. She knows what it takes to win at this stage.

And that's looking at Jess's pluses Then looking at the cons. I actually don't have a lot here, but number one, the biggest one in my opinion is she hasn't been tested yet. I did say she's played a high level off opponent, but they haven't tested her. She hasn't been put in too many situations.

where she's had to dig herself out of it. Anisimova nearly did that in the quarterfinal match in the second set because Jess wasn't able to serve out the set. was up a break and Anisimova was able to take that into a tie break. But then in the tie break, Anisimova completely imploded and essentially gave the match away to Jess. So she hasn't been put in a situation.

in my opinion, where she's really, really had to dig herself out of it. So it'd be interesting to see if or when that happens, how she can dig herself out of it. And then just an easy one, she lost their last meeting, but it was in three sets and it was under a closed roof. So conditions were a bit different. And there's been moments where Jess has been in...

in a commanding position in important matches. the one I can remember is the quarterfinals of Wimbledon against Marketa Vondrousova And she completely imploded. So that's that for Jess. And then looking at her opponent in Elena Rybakina. So.

looking at again the positives or the pros for Elena. She did win their last meeting in the WTA finals. She also hasn't dropped a set yet. And her serve, I wrote this down, her serve and then I wrote like stars. She has like the highest amount of aces. So she'll get a lot of free points on her serve, a little bit more than Jess.

And honestly, I don't have much to say other than she's playing really well. And I think it's because of the type of player Elena is, she, she doesn't give a lot on the court in terms of reactions, emotions or whatever. And she hasn't been in some super difficult battles. So there's not a lot to say other than, my gosh, she's playing really well. And honestly, I've been waiting for this for a while with Elena in terms of.

in the slams. Her performances in the slams for the past year, year and a bit haven't been great. but she also has this quiet calm on the court and this like quiet confidence being like, I am going to win this match. Even in her match against Iga she started off

bit shaky she was broken in her first game but then she broke Iga back straight away and then throughout the match they were they stayed on serve until the very end when Elena broke but even when they were staying on serve there was just something in my mind being like no she's gonna take this set and she's gonna win this match and that's just kind of the energy she's exuding then cons

very similar to Jess as well. She hasn't been tested yet. So like I said even in that Iga match she was tested in her first game but that was it. Then after that

It was smooth sailing, very easy. So I don't think she's had a big test where she's had to dig herself out of, out of anything. And her last semi-final was Wimbledon 2024. So it's been a while since she's been at this stage in a slam. She did win the WTA finals, which is a big tournament, but I think slams have a different aura. And she hasn't been.

in a semi-final since Wimbledon 2024 and she did lose that semi-final as well. So, with all of that being said, I'm actually having like a toss up. I've written something, but I feel like my head says something else. Or my head and my heart say something else, but I'm just gonna go with what I wrote down, even though I don't know if I quite believe it. All right, so I think Elena takes this match in three sets.

And I think this match will mainly be won on the serve. as in if Elena serves the way she's been serving this whole tournament, I think she takes it. But with saying all of that, the back of my head says Jess wins. Not just this match, she wins the whole thing, but maybe that's just my heart speaking. but.

I think Jess has had a lot of practice as she comes into this match she doesn't have to change her game plan as much in terms of how she's played her past two opponents. She does have to elevate it. And then I want to see, depending on who wins the first set, I want to see how the other player digs themselves out of it. Because none of them have lost a set yet in this tournament. So it will be interesting to see.

But I think with this match, I'm really excited about it. I don't have a lot to say because I kind of just want to see what happens. Usually when I predict a match or when I think about a match in the future, I can kind of see how it will go on both sides. But with this match, I just want to see like I don't have any. I don't have any any video playing in my head about how the match will go.

if that makes sense.

but that's my final input. So essentially based on my predictions with Aryna Sabalenka making it to the final and Elena Rybakin making it to the final, we have a repeat of the 2023 Australian Open final, which I don't think is a bad thing at all because that final was fabulous. I'll tell you a little story. So that day of the final in 2023, my sister and I

like we're very excited about the match until we realized we had a play to go to and the play was around the same time as when the finals started. So we made a decision to switch off our phones.

when we started going to the play and were going with some family friends, and we told them to not tell us anything about the tennis if they see anything, keep their mouths shut. So phones are off for the whole play and on the ride home phones are off. And then my cousin was staying the night. So we asked her to put the match on like a replay of the match. We still had our phones off.

put a replay of the match and like make sure that there aren't any spoilers and then we closed our eyes and then she started it from like she went back and started it. So we watched the match from like with that any information about what's happened and it was so worth it because that final was great. So hopefully I don't have any conflicting plans and I can just watch it live with everyone else but it'll be interesting to see. I'll be honest with you any combination of those finals is exciting.

Like if Elina Svitolina plays Jessica Pegula it means that they're fighting it out for their first slam title and I'll be very happy either way. If Aryna Sablanka plays Jessica Pegula it's a repeat of their US Open final in 2025. No sorry in 2024 and then if it's

Elena and Sabalenka. It's a repeat of the 2023 final, which was a great one. So it'll be interesting to see either way.

Okay, with all that being said, thank you. you so much for listening. Make sure to download the episode if you have listened to it and also leave me a five star review on Spotify or Apple podcasts. what else? I always forget to plug myself. ⁓ also follow the Instagram, which is at E WWT podcast and also my YouTube channel.

which is Everyone Watches Women's Tennis. So just the same name as the podcast. And I have actually already uploaded a video which was a prediction of the Australian Open. So I know the open is almost over, but if you can go watch that video, give it a like, leave a comment. I will be uploading some videos very, very soon. And I have nothing else to say for the time being. So thank you and have a lovely rest of your day. I hope you enjoy the rest of the Australian Open.