2026 MLB Midseason Check-In: Contenders, Frauds, And The Trade Deadline

The first half of the 2026 MLB season has given us enough evidence to stop talking about what teams were supposed to be.

Ian breaks down the Mets’ complete collapse, who David Stearns should consider moving at the trade deadline, and why trading Francisco Lindor would signal something much bigger than a normal sell-off.

Across town, the Yankees remain one of the American League’s best teams—but Aaron Judge’s absence exposed just how narrow their championship path becomes without him. Ian also looks at their deadline needs, Cam Schlittler’s Cy Young case and a potential playoff matchup with Tampa Bay.

Plus, it is time to check the receipts on the preseason edition of Rolling the Dice with Rice, sort MLB into contenders, surprises and disappointments, revisit the award races, make a World Series prediction and review the ABS challenge system.

Transcript

All-Star Break Reality Check

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I guess there's only one way to find out. Let's do it to it, right? Well, I would say half of a baseball season is enough time for the league to start exposing people. You know, the Mets were supposed to win around 90 games, and instead they look completely lost. The Yankees are still one of the best teams in the American League, but we have now seen exactly how dependent they are on Aaron Judge. Tampa Bay and the White Sox showed up earlier than expected. The Dodgers still look like the safest team in baseball. The Phillies changed direction early and saved their season. And Otani is somehow still making the impossible feel like routine, yet again. We also have some preseason bets to revisit, a few that I am absolutely taking credit for, and a few others that should probably be removed from the public record. Then I'll talk about some contenders, the surprises, the disappointments, the ABS challenge system, and what the second half could look like across baseball. This is the 2026 MLB midseason all-star break check-in. This is right on the radio.

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Extra, extra. Keep the lights low. New York talking with the late night go. From the garden glow to the stadium, Dev, every last, every what does it mean? Right on the radio, coming through your speakers, big things, box dudes, car breaks, believe it, Matic games, death giants, nicks on the ride. Let the whole city decide. No we are answered, no sitting on the fence. We don't talk loud, laughs, to make it make sense.

Mets Hype Meets The Standings

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Well, we uh we finally got enough baseball to stop lying to ourselves. Seriously. Opening day, it's probably my favorite day of the baseball calendar because every fan base gets to believe that they're right. Every offseason signing was the missing piece, every prospect is finally ready, every bullpen magically fixed itself over the winter. Hell, even the Rocky fans probably talk themselves into a respectable season somehow. Then you play 95 games and baseball starts exposing people. That's why the all-star break is also a great time in the baseball calendar. Opening day is about the possibilities. The all-star break is about the receipts. We don't have to keep saying, well, maybe this happens, or wait, wait until this guy comes back. No, no, no. We've seen enough. Can things still change? Yeah, of course. Things can always change. That's baseball. One deadline move can flip a season. One ace gets healthy, one prospect catches fire out of nowhere. One team gets stupid hot for six weeks and suddenly we're all pretending that we saw it coming, you know? But right now we've got enough evidence to call teams what they are. And honestly, I think everybody got fooled by somebody. I know I did, especially with the New York Mets. Man, I I I bought it. I bought it completely. I wasn't alone either. Vegas bought it. They had them at 90 wins. Steve Cohen bought it. Most Mets fans bought it. The conversation all winter was this roster is different. Year two Soto changes everything. They finally have a more balanced lineup with the addition of Freddie Peralta. The pitching should be a lot more respectable. Maybe this is finally the year that they stopped relying on one or two guys to carry the whole thing. Every conversation sounded great. And then the game started, and almost none of it happened. Now, to be fair, before I completely unload on the Mets, I do want to give them credit for one thing, maybe the only thing, to be honest with you, but Carson Benge and AJ Ewing can play. Those two look like they belong, and watching them come up alongside Juan Soto has probably been the biggest bright spot of the season. McLean still looks like a real piece from time to time. He's struggled a little bit, but he still looks pretty good. Christian Scott, same thing. Soto, Benge, Ewing, McQueen, Scott. Those are the guys I'm not entertaining conversations about. I actually like the young core pretty well. The problem is this season was never supposed to be about the young core or the future. If this was a rebuilding year, fine. You'd watch Benge, you'd watch Ewing, you'd you'd get excited every time McLean took them out, and you'd say, Alright, I can see where this is going. But that's not what anybody sold to us. This was supposed to be the year. This wasn't supposed to be just wait another season. This was supposed to be NLCS. Let's slay the Dodger Dragon. No, instead, we're sitting here at the All-Star break already talking about selling pieces off. That's brutal. I I don't even think they're they're gonna have some miracle wild card run in them either. Look, could they play better baseball over the second half? Sure. I actually kind of expect them to. But playing better and making the playoffs are two completely different conversations. So now the focus shifts

Deadline Selling And Lindor Rumors

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to the deadline. And this is where Mets fans are gonna get divided. Everybody agrees that they should sell. Until you start naming the players that you want to sell. Then suddenly it's well, not him. Maybe we keep this guy. His value's too low. I still think he can help us next year. And yeah, look, some of that is fair. Selling does not mean taking the first terrible offer just so you can say you did something. Freddie Peralta is kind of the best example of this, unfortunately. I mean, what are you actually going to get for him right now? If the answer is a bag of balls and some 27-year-old double-A reliever, what are we doing? His value is low. Listen to offers, absolutely. But if nobody is giving you anything useful at all, keep him. Hope he rebuilds some value. And if he walks at the end of the year, who cares? Clay Holmes, that's a little more complicated. Look, I would like to keep him, but he's hurt. And he's expected maybe sometime back in August. Any contender realistically calling for him is gambling that he gets back healthy, he can look like himself and actually give them meaningful innings down the stretch. So the receiving team takes a big mi big gamble. But he's also an expiring contract. So if a team believes in the medicals and the Mets can uh find the right partner, they still might be able to get something decent back for him. Not a massive haul, but enough to consider it. Luke Weaver might be the cleaner trade chip here. Look, bullpen arms get expensive at the deadline. And everybody convinces themselves that they are one reliever away from fixing October. So if a team wants to overpay and take advantage of it, I would rather keep Weaver personally, but you have to separate the player you like from the value that he could bring back. What I don't want is a sell-off just for the sake of having one. Don't trade useful players for three names nobody's never heard of, and then tell me the farm system got deeper. Get somebody who has a real chance to help the next good Mets team. And then there's the Francisco Lindor rumors. This is where the conversation changes completely. Trading Lindor is not just a deadline adjustment. That's admitting the entire plan has failed. You signed Juan Soto to be the centerpiece of a contender. Moving Lindor means no longer trying to repair the team around Soto. You're tearing it down and starting over. I don't think that's where they should go. If the season gets even uglier, his name's going to keep coming up. Once you're seriously discussing talking about trading Lindor, you're not talking about salvaging 2026 anymore. You're not even talking about salvaging 2027. We're talking about another full reset. Steve Cohen did not spend all this money to reset again. David Stearns deserves plenty of heat here. This is his team, his roster, his vision. Last year at the deadline, everybody gave him an A. He added bullpen pieces and a bat. Every move looks smart. And when it happened, almost every single one of them blew up in his face. Look, that happens, man. Baseball makes smart people look stupid all the time. But now, another roster that was supposed to be deeper, more balanced, more prepared for a full season has fallen apart on him. At some point, you can't blame every manager. You can't blame every injury. You know, the guy who chose the players has to answer for it. Especially when you look in your own division at Philadelphia. The Phillies realized things were going sideways early and acted early. They gave themselves time to recover. The Mets, on the other hand, waited until everything was already on fire, grabbed a bucket of water, and wanted credit for reacting. No, you were late. So yes, Spenge looks good, Ewing looks good. There are young players worth watching. But let's not dress this up as some encouraging transition here. They were supposed to win. They're 40 and 57. The season is basically over. We're already discussing who should be sold. They just stink.

Yankees Ceiling Without Aaron Judge

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Across down, the Yankees have a very different problem. Their season isn't over. Not by a long shot. They're one of the best teams in the American League and could absolutely be playing in the World Series this year. But the first half showed us something Yankee fans probably did not want to see this clearly. They need Aaron Judge badly. We all knew Judge was their best player. I mean, obviously, right? But when he went down, you saw the difference between the Yankees being good and the Yankees being scary. Without Judge, they can still win games. The pitching can carry him, other guys can step up. But they don't exactly feel like a World Series winner. With Judge, every inning feels dangerous. Pitchers work differently. The hitters around him see better pitches. One mistake changes an entire game. Without them, the lineup becomes easier to navigate. They're good. Not great. Definitely not terrifying. That's why I can't say they're clearly the best team in the American League. Like everybody wants to crown them. Top two, top three, absolutely. But if they played Tampa in a playoff series tomorrow, my first question is who's home? If the series is in the Bronx, I probably lean the Yankees. If it's in Tampa, it might go the other way. That's a toss-up. And I don't think anybody really expected the Yankees' raise to feel like a coin flip at the all-star break. But Tampa has earned that. For the Yankees, the path is still there. The returning pitching should help, and Cam Schlitzer already looks like the real deal. The stuff is obvious, and I like how he carries himself almost as much too. He doesn't look like a young pitcher hoping that the league doesn't figure him out too quick. He looks like he believes he belongs at the front of the rotation. And that's in front of guys like Cole and Freed and Rodan. I mean, there's an attitude there. Not fake tough guy stuff. Confidence. Give me the ball, I'll handle it, I'll get it done. It's kind of why I buy him as a real Cy Young candidate here, too. For the Yankees at the deadline, I would want to contact bat. Not another guy who hits the ball 400 feet twice a week and strikes out the rest of the time. They have power. I want somebody who can keep an inning alive. Shorten up with two strikes, move a runner, put the ball in play when October pitching gets nasty. Because when the home runs disappear, what is plan B? Bullpen help would be a little great too, but everybody needs bullpen help. So that market is going to get stupid. Be aggressive. Just don't become desperate. Get Judge healthy, add another type of hitter, strengthen the bullpen, let the rotation come back together, do those things, and they can win the American League. No problem. Ignore those weaknesses, and Tampa might send them home early.

Preseason Bets And Midseason Receipts

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Which is pretty funny because Tampa is also responsible for one of the few preseason predictions that I actually can brag about here. So for anybody listening for the first time, right before the season started, I gave out a full group of MLB bets for rolling the dice with rice. Win totals, player props, strikeout leaders, home run bets, some saves, a little bit of everything. Now, now that we've reached the all-star break, it's time to check the receipts. Some look great, some are still alive, and some are dead enough that we can stop pretending. So let's start with the good. I took the Rays over 77.5 games. I feel great about that one. Not just because they're on pace to clear it, they might win the damn division. Tampa was supposed to be too young. The Yankees were better. Baltimore was supposed to be involved. Toronto was coming off the World Series appearance. The Rays were supposed to hang around and eventually fade. Well, they haven't faded yet. So yeah, I'm taking a little victory lap here. Let me enjoy it. Miami, over 72.5, looks pretty good here, too. I thought they could be respectable. I thought the number was a little low. I did not think they'd be sitting in a wild card spot while the Mets were 17 games under 500. But you know what? Here we are. Milwaukee over 84 looks good. St. Louis over 69.5 looks good. Houston under 86.5 is in a nice spot. We'll see how that goes. Angels under 70 and the Reds under 80 are moving the right way. So when it comes to team totals, I kind of actually did all right. I kind of know what I'm talking about. There was one small problem. The Mets over 90 and a half. We got to talk about it. Look, I can't spend all this time telling you how bad they are and then quietly just skip past the fact that I bet them to win more than 90 games. That would be dishonest and cowardly, to be honest with you. So I'll own it. That was the bet where being a fan completely got in the way. But look, like I said, Vegas believed in them too, man. The number was sitting at 90. Vegas is not in the business of getting things wrong. So whatever. I allowed myself to believe the best case version of that team. Mets over 90 and a half was basically a fandom wearing a fake mustache. That's easily the worst bet on the board. Maybe not mathematically, but emotionally, yeah. A little humiliating. Is what it is. Player props, uh, they've been a much bigger mixed bag. So Juan Soto over 35.5 home runs is still alive. He's at 21 after missing a good chunk of time. He'll need a strong second half, but I think if he stays healthy, he can get there. Murakami over 26.5 home runs looks great. He's already got 20. That's with a hamstring injury. 60 games to go. You're telling me he can't hit seven home runs? A lot of people question whether the power would translate. Yeah, that part translates just fine. Logan Gilbert reaching 200 strikeouts is still possible. I got Jesus Lazardo to lead baseball in strikeouts, kind of still has a pulse. See how Mizerowski's doing. But then we get to the dead ones. I had Fernando Tatis Jr. over 30 home runs. That's done. Throw dirt on it. He didn't have his first home run until May, and he only has five. Five right now. I don't need to break down launch angle. I was just straight wrong on that one. Most of the other higher strikeout ladders need miracles. The saves board has been a disaster. I had Jaron Duran to lead hits in baseball, lead baseball in hits, excuse me. Yeah, well he's hitting 193. So unless the rest of uh Major League Baseball collectively forgets how to hold a bat, I don't think that one's coming home anytime soon. Look, the main takeaway is simple. My team reads, pretty good. My ability to predict what individual human beings will do over six months, apparently not that great. But that's gambling, man. You brag about the rays, you also apologize for the Mets. You keep an eye on Soto, and you quietly remove Tatis from the fridge. And then you move on.

Contenders And Surprises Across MLB

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The team saving my preseason card are also the big reason why the second half looks nothing like what we expected. You know, at the top, the Dodgers and the Yankees are still the obvious contenders. Los Angeles is still the safest team in baseball. Every time somebody gets hurt, they replace him with yet another player who would probably be an all-star somewhere else. Am I automatically picking them to win the World Series, though? No. Look, we've seen this movie. They can look unbeatable for six months of run into one hot team in October, and then suddenly everybody's standing around wondering what happened. The Yankees have the highest ceiling in the American League when Judge is healthy. But after those two, it gets messy. Atlanta is probably the team I trust the most. Akuna being hurt again is a huge problem, but the Braves still have enough pitching, enough experience, and enough guys who have already been through October. Philly is right there behind them, though. And the Phillies aren't some punks, man. And I mean that with respect. They hang around. They know how to make a division uncomfortable. They got Harper, they've got Schwarber. Their pitching has been pretty damn good. You know, one or two deadline moves could really make them dangerous. So that division is not exactly wrapped up for Atlanta just yet. Tampa, like I said, they belong here too, man. At this point, calling them a surprise almost feels disrespectful. They've been good for too long with only a hundred million dollar payroll somehow. Junior Commonero looks like a superstar. The pitching holds up. They're in first because they've earned it. Until somebody knocks them out, you gotta stop acting like they're borrowing the spot. Milwaukee is Milwaukee. I mean, I trust them from April to through September. They will pitch, they will play clean baseball, they will win more games than people expect them to every year. But then October shows up, and they hesitate. You know, maybe this is the year they finally break through, but I need to see it first. The Cubs in the same division are, I guess, one of the contenders that I trust the least. I don't know, man, they're too streaky. They've they've had two separate 10-game winning streaks this season and also a 15-game losing streak. In one season. Look, when they're hot, they can beat anybody. But when they're cold, they disappear. It can make them very dangerous in October. It can also make them very washable in October. White Sox are also another major surprise. Hey, look, good for them, man. This time last year, they might have they might have had 35 wins, maybe. I mean, they made some good moves, they had some guys, they changed the culture around a little bit. Murakami, once he comes back and he gets real healthy. Honestly, a wild card spot for them would be a great step in the right direction and a great season. Them playing meaningful baseball this late is big progress. The question is how they handle being expected to win. You know, it's easy to play loose when everybody assumes that you're rebuilding and you're the pushover. It's completely different when everybody is chasing you at the top of the division. I think they're good enough to stay in the race. I don't know if they're ready to control it. Now, now we get to the disappointments. Toronto, Toronto was just in the World Series. We know the talent can work. All they lost really was Bo Bachette. I can't really completely bury him, but last season was supposed to be the start of something here. Not one great run followed by falling back into the bottom of the division in the middle of the league. Detroit made some moves that I liked. I mean, they added pieces that made sense. They added Frambert Valdez to try and help Scooble. A couple bats here and there. They got a couple rookies. Just hasn't really translated. You don't get credit in the standings for having a smart winter. San Diego is probably the most fixable disappointment. They still have the talent. One strong deadline and one good month can completely change how we talk about them. Only problem is you're still chasing the Dodgers in your own division. I don't even think you're second in your division. I think the Diamondbacks are ahead of you. Tati's having five home runs, pretty much sums it up, though. You know what he can be. You just haven't seen it. And the Mets, well, look, we already had that conversation. It's disheartening and it's terrible, but there's no sense in wasting more time, especially on this podcast about it, when I'm sure I'll be talking about them more often than not. Toronto can point to last year's World Series, Detroit can point to offseason moves that happen. Worked. San Diego can point to talent. Demetz can point to standings and apologize. Seattle also deserves a quick little mention here. Even though every year it's it's great pitching, not enough offense, and a record sitting around 500, at a certain point it's not bad luck anymore. That's just who you are. San Francisco also has been another mess. They look like they want to throw money at people. They try to get some guys, and then when they finally do, they hire a college coach, and the idea was he was supposed to connect with the younger roster. Yeah, it hasn't worked, man. But yeah, that's the league. The Dodgers and the Yankees are the obvious favorites. Atlanta is the team behind them I trust the most. Philly's the team I wouldn't want chasing me. Tampa has earned the right to be treated like a contender, and Milwaukee is to prove it in October.

Awards Races And Deadline Stakes

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So before the deadline starts moving players around, let's check in quickly on the awards. And I do mean quickly. In the American League, Jordan Alvarez is the MVP favorite. Right now he should be, but Junior Comanero has a real chance to take it. If he keeps hitting and Tampa wins the AL, now he's a young star leading the rays past the Yankees. That's a strong argument for him. The National League MVP, well, it's Otani. Unless he gets hurt, I don't know what conversation we're supposed to have here. He's one of the best hitters in baseball. He's pitching again. And somehow we've gotten used to it. We shouldn't be, but we are. The American League Cy Young Race is the one that I find the most interesting here. Cam Schlittler is right there with Dylan Case. Cease has uh he's done this over a full season before. Schlitler hasn't. But I gotta tell you, man, the stuff is real. The confidence is real. He looks comfortable at the front of the Yankee rotation. I think it's his and his to lose. In the National League, Jacob Mizarowski is the guy everybody's chasing. He's been a strikeout animal. Somebody is going to need a ridiculous second half to catch him. But yeah, that's enough on the awards. The trade deadline is much more likely to change the league. Miami might have the strangest decision here. The Marlins are currently sitting in the wild in the last wild card spot. And somehow, their biggest threat might be their own front office. If they decide this success wasn't part of the plan and start selling anyway, what are we doing? The players earn the right to keep going. The fans finally have something worth watching. At some point, winning has to be allowed to change the plan. The White Sox have a different version of the same question. How much do they really believe in this? They don't need to empty the farm system, but if there's a respectable, reasonable move that helps them stay in the race or stay ahead of the race or run away with the race, you gotta make it here. You don't get unlimited chances to play meaningful baseball in September or October. Philadelphia, Philadelphia's another team I expect to be aggressive. I mean, they have to try and catch Atlanta, and Atlanta has to account for the roster it has now. Milwaukee will Milwaukee will probably make one quiet move that nobody cares about, cares about, and then two months later the player will be getting huge outs, and you'll see what they gave up for him, and it was like nothing. The Cubs, the Cubs have to decide whether they trust their own streakiness enough to push more chips in. The Yankees already know what they need. A different kind of bat, some bullpen help, and they need Judge Healthy more than anything. And the Dodgers, like the Dodgers will probably trade for somebody nobody realized was even available because that's apparently how this works every goddamn year. LA's the only division leader I feel especially confident will hold. Everything else feels wide open. So if you're gonna make me make a pick, if you're gonna make me pick the World Series in 2026, the year of our Lord before the lockout, I'm gonna go with Braves and Yankees. I know the Dodgers are the safest choice, but where's the fun in that, man? Gotta live a little bit. You gotta make some uh some bad decisions. And I know Atlanta has flaws. I know the Yankees depend heavily on Judge. But every contender has something you can talk yourself out of. Nobody's perfect. I trust the Braves more than any national team outside of the Dodgers. And I think the Yankees still have the highest ceiling in the American League when they're healthy. So yeah. Braves and Yankees. That's the Ian Rice mid-season all-star break prediction. Look, the Dodgers could make me look stupid. It wouldn't be the first time. But I don't know, man. I uh I just don't think that's this year. I don't think they're getting a three-p'd. I think uh I think they get clipped. I think they get clipped early. Maybe someone catches them in a short series. I mean, hell, last year they almost got bounced to the Padres in the wild card series. Or was that two years ago? Either way. Before we get out of here, there's one other first half experiment worth talking about.

ABS Challenge System Plus Final Take

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You know, look for all the things that Major League Baseball gets wrong, I think the ABS challenge system has actually been pretty good. Not perfect, don't don't get me wrong, but good. The biggest thing is that it doesn't drag the game to a halt. You know, hitter challenges, the pitch comes up, you get the answer, we move on. You're correcting the obvious misses without turning every pitch into a courtroom case. I also like that there's a little strategy involved here. You know, you don't get unlimited challenges, you gotta be pretty damn sure. The umpire still calls the game, but there's a safety net when somebody misses one pretty badly. I've also seen some next level chess here, some next level baseball where some of the more in-depth catchers or the catchers that really know the zone, they've actually been framing the pitch backwards. So they've been framing it in the hitter's eye to make it look like it was a bad call and making them waste the challenge. That's next level baseball. My only real complaint is the way that the players challenge. You know, some guys, sometimes a guy taps his head and he looks towards the dugout to make some tiny gesture, and the umpire has no idea what he's doing, or the umpire put his head down, or he was looking at something else, and he missed the tap. Everybody stands up trying to figure out whether the challenge was accepted or not. We gotta clean that up. Let's give him one clear signal. Something the umpire, the broadcast, the entire stadium recognizes immediately. You thought it was gonna be the tap on the head, but there seems to be a little bit of issue here with it. No confusion, no arguing whether the hitter asks for time. I know some people want the fully automated strike zone already. I'm not there yet. I still think it's important to have an umpire behind the plate. The challenge system keeps the human element without forcing everybody to live with a terrible call. Just got to fix the signal, keep the reviews fast, and then leave it alone for a little while. Let it grow and mature. But halfway through the year, I would say the ABS system gets a positive review for me. And really, that brings us back to the whole point of this episode. The first half has given us the evidence. Now, now the deadline tells us which teams actually understand what they're looking at. Who believes in what they built, who knows they need help, who gets aggressive, who gets scared, who makes the move that changes October. And who stands still and spends the winter explaining why they waited too long or why they didn't make the move. Thank you as always for listening to Rice on the Radio. Make sure you're uh following the show on Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, Facebook, X, whatever you like, because I'll have plenty more as the deadline gets closer and the second half starts taking shape here. Let me know what I got right, what I got completely wrong, and who you're picking to reach the World Series. Subscribe wherever you're listening, leave a rating review if you haven't already. It means way more than you think it does. And send the episode to someone who needs to answer for their terrible preseason baseball games. Till then, we'll be back soon. Tell someone you love them, make sure you spread good energy in this world. I am Ian Rice, and this has been Rice on the Radio. I'll catch you next time.