Let's go round again: WatchFinder's Arjen van de Vall on pre-owned's bounce

In this episode, hosts  Robin Swithinbank and David Sadigh welcome Arjen van de Vall, CEO of Watchfinder & Co., for a deep dive into the fast-evolving pre-owned luxury watch market. They explore how the industry has matured since the pandemic-era boom, how buyer behavior is shifting, and why trust—not timepieces—is the real product Watchfinder sells. Arjen shares insights on market volatility, brand performance, counterfeits, and the company's global expansion strategy.

Highlights include:

• Market correction: Has the post-COVID speculation phase finally settled?
• Buyer behavior: Why Gen Z and Millennials are embracing pre-owned watches
• Brand leaders: How Omega and Cartier are outperforming in the secondary market
• Authentication at scale: Inside Watchfinder’s 60-step process to detect fakes
  
  

Also in this episode:

• On the Download with Benedicte Soteras
• Watch resale insights from DLG's Sentinel Tracker
• Top performer: Richard Mille resells at 44% above retail

Brought to you by https://digitalluxurygroup.com/
Follow us @digitalluxurygroup & @robin_swithinbank on Instagram
Produced by Juliet Fallowfield, 2025 www.fallowfieldmason.com

Transcript

Ep 9 Arjen van de Vall Let's go round again: WatchFinder's Arjen van de Vall on pre-owned's bounce

 [00:00:00] hello and welcome to the Luxury Society Podcast, brought to you by Digital Luxury Group. I'm your host, Robin Swithinbank

David Sadigh: And I am your cohost, David Sadigh.

In this episode, David and I turn our attentions to the world of pre-owned luxury watches, a fast maturing sector now worth an estimated $30 billion a year. Our guest this week is our in Vander Val, chief Executive of Watch Finder, a business that disrupted the space so successfully two decades ago that it was snapped up by the Mighty Richemont Group.

The pre-owned watch market has Yo-Yo, since the pandemic turned the world on its head five years ago, but where is it now and what's to become of it? We'll discuss that and more shortly, and then keep your ears open for some startling data-driven insights that show which brands are running hot on the pre-owned market.

Hint, as ever, the data tells its own story. And later we'll be joined by the ever reliable Benedict for on the download and a quick dip into Sentinel dgs, pre-owned and gray market tracker. All that to [00:01:00] come, but for now, David, on with the show. 

David Sadigh: Let's do it.

Arjen Van De Vall: for me, when you buy a watch, it's very similar to buying art. First and foremost, you buy what you like 

Arjen Van De Vall:  younger generations, they see less of an obstacle in buying preowned.  

What we're selling is trust. So of course we sell watches, but first and foremost, what we sell is trust.

 probably seven, eight years ago, 80% of the fake watches that we got,they were terrible.

20% were good. Now it's completely reversed. 

Robin Swithinbank: And so it's a great pleasure to welcome onto the pod our Arjen van de Vall, chief Executive of the Pre-owned Watch, retailer Watchfinder and Co. RNs route into the world of luxury watches could be viewed as atypical. Before joining the company in 2021, he ran Rakuten's European operation, and before that he worked in Amazon's marketing division.

Today, Dutch born RN is based in the uk from where Watchfinder continues to operate its international business. But before we talk to him, a note on Watchfinder, a fascinating business. Founded in [00:02:00] the UK in 2002, it became one of the leading lights of a fast evolving and fast growing sector before being acquired by the Richemont Group in 2018 for an undisclosed sum reported to have been in the region of 250 million pounds.

Today, the pre-owned landscape is sprawling and hugely diverse with the result that the sector plays an increasingly significant role in the watch market as a whole. Many analysts predict that within five to 10 years, its value will increase to match that of the primary market. according to AL'S most recent annual report, Watchfinder recorded double digit growth in the 24 25 financial year. About which more in the course of our conversation. No doubt. So RN, with that as the backdrop, great to have you with us and thank you for coming on the Luxury Society Podcast. How are you?

Arjen Van De Vall: first and foremost, thank you for that introduction and, uh, and thank you for having me. Uh, doing well. So you just mentioned the financial year, 24, 25. We're now, already in the second month of the new, financial year. and it's [00:03:00] been eventful to say the least, but, uh, yeah, we're exactly, but we're doing well.

Robin Swithinbank: the first question, just, had a look at your background, but how does a guy with that background find himself selling? Depending on your preferred definition, secondhand pre-owned or even pre loved watches,

Arjen Van De Vall: Yeah, I think, it's the power of manifestation. no, it's I've always had a passion and a fascination for, watches. I have an engineering degree, and I think from a younger age it was probably more the engineering aspect. And over time it's also the shiny part that I, quite like. But that's been a fascination that I've had from a very young age.

My father had one watch, it was a, a dress watch, a Baume & Mercier, that he bought himself for a career milestone and. Somehow that resonated so strongly with me that,the seed was planted and then when the opportunity came up at Watchfinder, they were also looking for someone with the profile with a more, digital, and e-commerce background.

yeah, it was, a fantastic opportunity for [00:04:00] me to actually get involved and, it's been a four year journey so far, and, never a dull moment.

Robin Swithinbank: Isn't it interesting how often, people's first experience of a watch of the watch market is as a child and through, the watch that belongs to a father, a mother, somebody they

care 

Arjen Van De Vall: Exactly. Yeah. 

Robin Swithinbank: sorthighlights the importance of, of passing the story on. look, as we noted just now. You joined the business in 2021 at the height of the pandemic. at that point, the pre-owned market was to put it bluntly going gangbusters.

Mm-hmm.would you define that period and how has the landscape evolved in the four years since?

Arjen Van De Vall: Yeah, it was a, a baptism by fire in that sense. It was interesting because it, it's been such a one-off event in the watch, history, or at least that the last couple of decades to see such an incredible pronounced, spike, in value, and kind of a perfect storm of people having a lot of time, 0% interest rates, and a supply squeeze.

And that created just this incredible frenzy. I [00:05:00] think fundamentally in the business that we operate, there is a speculative aspect, but we don't speculate on the fact that a watch will become more valuable over time. We speculate on the fact that we can actually buy it at a price point, add value to it, and then sell it at, a price point.

It allows us to make margin and obviously, those fundamentals were still there, when the prices, ballooned, but. The predictability,is far, less so for us going through that spike and then, the decline thereafter. We're now in a territory that is much more predictable and much more stable and is much closer to the core of how we operate.

But, as a business, I think in the last. three years from peak and kind of the way down from there, we've probably learned more, than in the 10 years prior, and that has really informed us in how we've expanded and how we've refocused our, our business as well.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah, you talk about the market stabilizing, which is something that we'll talk about in some detail, I suspect. But it's been interesting for me to track the industry over the past few years. I [00:06:00] often, of course, like most people, I rely on, organizations like watch charts, and Morgan Stanley.

I. who produce a report, more or less quarterly, to try and track, what's happening with prices of pre-owned watches and, watch charts. And Morgan Stanley have recorded 12 consecutive quarters of falling prices

Mm-hmm.of Q1 in 2022. that indicate to us that interest in pre-owned watches is on the wane?

Arjen Van De Vall: I think, so price and the price trackers, which are now almost, depreciation trackers, that's one dimension and it's great to have that transparency, in the market. And I think Watchfinder has also been on the forefront of kind of democratizing, the price components where, with online, it's openly shared 

So that's a very valuable instrument, not only for enthusiasts,on the buying side, but also for us as an industry player. I think with that said, if you take a bigger step back and you look at 10 years ago, you only had a number of models that traded, structurally above retail, and that would be typically a Rolex Daytona.

And, most every other [00:07:00] model, every other brand, there could be a wait list, but typically you would not be paying over retail in the secondary market. and then this year will be our 23rd anniversary, so we have quite a wealth of data. If we look back, and you compare it with 10 years ago, then we're still very significantly up versus, where we were there and it's, uh, that growth is outpacing inflation.

I think what we track is around 60% uplift, as a median price point from, 10 years ago. so in that regards, if you make an investment for,a quick profit, maybe that side of the market has hit some, some headwinds. but if I look at the more broader side of the market and that's people actually buying watches 'cause they like it and that's something that they want to wear or to give to someone, that is from our point of view, as strong as ever.

 and you mentioned as the introduction, we've had our most successful year, when it comes to the volume of sales in, in last year. And for me, that's testament that there's still, very strong appetite in, in preowned. Yeah.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah, we talk about that, this period [00:08:00] of speculation, don't we? And clearly a lot of people lost a lot of money over the past three years having bought at the peak, having speculated that prices would continue to go up, as we've now seen, haven't. and quite the opposite has happened. lessons from that season, you talk about how much you've learned and, That there's been this stabilization in the market since. if you are looking to invest in a watch, perhaps as a long-term investment to build a portfolio of watches,

Arjen Van De Vall: Mm-hmm. key takeaways from what's happened over the last 3, 4, 5 years?

 I would say by and large, the interest in watches has, has multiplied. And I think that's what you see on, uh, the manufacturing side of the industry and the brands, the maisons, but also a lot of independent players that have come up over the last, let's say three to five years, which there's probably not been a time, where you had that many new brands, coming up.

and I think that more broad, interest is also driven by younger age groups. And you would say, a smartwatch or, your phone concept of having a watch just for keeping time is probably, [00:09:00] less, of less importance or less relevance. But the interest is phenomenal and the level of knowledge that we encounter with our clients is also, it's incredible 'cause, all that information is readily available.

for me, when you buy a watch, it's very similar to buying art. First and foremost, you buy what you like and, quite often, yeah, 'cause you have the archetypes of what a watch, should look like. and the brands that are most pronounced in that space. Those would be the first one to look at for a lot of people in Rolex, being the dominant, player in that regards.

But what we find is that once people get into the watch hobby, is that they can also move away from the more established brands, or they get excited about complications, and beyond. So I think the entry point is still very much Rolex Omega. we see Cartier also doing phenomenally well.

Then as a next stage in someone's lifetime, it could be that there's an interest in, I said complications, or then you find that a submariner is an incredible watch that you can wear with [00:10:00] great pride and joy for 30 years. but at the same time, if you compare it with Verso, it could also be, somewhat boring in,the passion that you,that you have.

And so it's evolving, but as a, as an entry point, we see the. The brands that are doing, the best in the new site, we see a direct reflection of that in, in, in pre-owned. but it's fascinating also to see the journeys from there. Yeah. With trade in, that gradually either a collection get built or it's a one watch collection that, changes every two or three years.

And, so yeah, it remains to be quite dynamic.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah. Th those are gonna be some of my next questions, but it occurs to me from what you just said, that particularly for the younger generation, I start to wonder whether pre-owned isn't some sort of gateway into watch ownership and potentially to someday buying yourself the new watch. Is that born out in your data or am I just clutching there?

Arjen Van De Vall: No,I definitely recognize that. with that said, I think that especially younger age groups, they're also much more used to, using [00:11:00] online to investigate and to really, before making a purchase, decision. Typically, they are very well informed. That's a different dynamic where, it's not just about the purchase, it's also about having an understanding of the Maison, of the heritage.

and, that's definitely different. I also think that younger generations, they see less of an obstacle in buying preowned. And, and that's not just in, in hard luxury or just in watches. that with, accessories or handbags, and and fashion as well. We very clearly see that, not only do we believe that we serve the same clients as in you, but also that the lines, from a client perspective are actually blurring between the both.

And, and for us that's fantastic because we take great inspiration of. How the client journey and the client telling works in the new side of luxury to really elevate our experience and the more opportunity we have to integrate our, catalog and our products within a new environment, the more, relevant the shopping [00:12:00] experience will be for the client 

So we've talked about Rolex, you've mentioned one or other brands, cardio Omega, obviously Patek Philippo, DeMar, pga, il. These are brands that are all going to do well in the pre-owned space. But are there other brands that are outperforming the market at the moment? and if so, why?

Yeah, so two brands that, that we've seen, real strong growth with are Omega. And it's one, it's really been over pronounced, in, in terms of their growth. a second one is Cartier that I just mentioned before, where it's a bit of a chicken and egg, that if we don't have the inventory then we won't sell it.

and so to some extent, it's also our ability to understand how demand is evolving and where, our catalog should evolve into, or how we widen it. And, and deepen it. but those are two brands that, that have done, phenomenally well for us. I think the beauty of our platform is that we are completely brand agnostic.

So at any given day it's between 65, 75 brands that,that we feature. So that catalog is [00:13:00] quite wide and, and deep. But at the same time, our sweet spot sits in, watches that are, I would say, and that's what drives the pre-owned industry and the new industry are still, sports watches. And within that category, typically you see,the,the.

The typical, brands, looking at somewhat, also very established brands, but where maybe there's less focus at times in the preowned market. There is on the vintage side, but maybe more or less in, in newer, inventory and newer vintages, Lakota, where we're seeing really strong,traction.

and then beyond that, it is really as expected. it's Rolex. Price point wise, I think that people are probably a little bit more risk averse in or, and also the willingness to invest at really the highest price, segment. So we see that steel is doing,very well. precious metals is, it's a bit all over the place.

but we see less appetite and than what we would've seen closer to peak and, and,the time thereafter.[00:14:00] 

Robin Swithinbank: Interesting. and at the same time I wonder where the market is softest. where are consumers less interested all of a sudden?

Arjen Van De Vall: I, so for us, and that's also, we have the,the benefit and that has been, and that is. Ongoing, a lot of hard work, but we've actually been growing, in the last, year. And so in that regards, that growth is, carried almost, through all of the markets that we operate and also, through most of the price points, but it's really the highest end of it.

And, if we talk in pounds, then let's say the cutoffs sit somewhere between 25 and 35,000 pounds and up. that's where we do see, more softness. Part of that can also be linked to, that there's more availability on, the new side. It's always, it the,the balance between supply and demand on new and then the downstream impact, that can affect, US in, as a secondary market,player.

Yeah, so I suppose we see this, this correlation between the availability of product in the primary market and appetite for product in the secondary market. And I guess you're always [00:15:00] responding, to the way the new market is behaving.

Robin Swithinbank: But let's try and bring it into the here and now and this sort of immediate future. It's been quite interesting to look at those reports produced by watch charts and Morgan Stanley and to see that the price decrease in the last quarter, Q1 of 2025 decreased by, only, just only North 0.4%, which is the smallest drop of those previous 12 quarters. that makes me wonder whether we should read into that, that the market is turning a corner, or should we just read into that, that this is the natural conclusion of a period of market correction.

Arjen Van De Vall: it's a great question. I wish I would have a definitive answer because obviously that would make how we plan our business,easier and we have our, our own take on it. I think I. for us, stability and predictability is good. So even when there is a time of continued, decline, then that allows us to, to, to factor that into our, into our operations, whereas these huge spikes.

you could question it for the [00:16:00] average, client if there's a benefit to that as well, because then all of a sudden, do you time your purchase or do you wait or do you,do your purchase now? And, so again, the pricing aspect, yes, that definitely informs, us about the demand situation.

it informs us in terms of our purchasing strategy and to ensure that we have the right offering to our end clients and making sure that we have competitive prices,at our points of, of sale. but I also don't think that it's the, full story and, what I definitely. Appreciate is that the correction, that we've had or these, this huge almost cryptocurrency like run, or three years ago that we're now definitely at the tail end of, that,that event.

but I think we have high urgency in our business. But at the same time, where we take a lot of confidence from is if you zoom out, as I mentioned, if you look back over the last 10 years, then actually the trend is still incredibly positive.

And that's not just a Watchfinder insight, but that would be for any player who's been in that industry for, a prolonged [00:17:00] duration. we'll see that we're still trending, very significantly, above where we were. And it's almost exactly in line. With where we were pre COVID or pre,price, peak.

but we are definitely experiencing that. I'm not sure if we should speak from of a bottom, but, that the very pronounced correction, we haven't seen that over the last, uh, last month. that's true.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah, and I mean, I have no skin in this game at all, but I can't help but wonder if the pre-owned market, is likely to have a good year.

Arjen Van De Vall: the results of this current quarter that we're in, and indeed the year as a whole, I would expect to see positive results. And we, it's widely reported that sales of luxury goods in the primary market

Robin Swithinbank: are 

Arjen Van De Vall: Yes.

Robin Swithinbank: coming up and from all sides, if that's possible.

Arjen Van De Vall: Yep.

Robin Swithinbank: facing rising material and labor costs. There's Donald Trump's tariffs, dwindling consumer sentiment. There's this long list of challenges. it's tempting to believe that those would have a very direct impact on the pre-owned market and that they would drive

Mm-hmm.to the pre-owned market. not least because of course, if you're offering the same model, at 25 to [00:18:00] 50% under retail or whatever it's going to be, that your business must surely stand to benefit. how optimistic can we be on your behalf? Obviously.

Arjen Van De Vall: Yeah, I, so we're very mindful of, so the reality is that, some of what we will experience in pre-owned is the downstream impact,of what happens in, in the new side of the market. an increase in gold prices that doesn't necessarily have a dramatic effect. on our end in that prices will go up.

but that could potentially add further downstream and further, down in time that could have, some impacts. But the reaction to the tariffs has also been very different by, brands where some have done, a blanket global increase, others have more targeted increases and others have essentially said, will absorb, most of it.

How that will play out longer term is difficult to predict. I think also,some of those, there's been, increased shipping to those, markets to ensure that they have sufficient supply and while we work through it, and that's also what you are forced to do if you work [00:19:00] in pre-owned.

Not suggesting that it's, more difficult than the new side, but the margins that we operate with are different. and, our operating model in itself and the risk that we embrace is different as well. So the level of discipline that you need to have to be able to operate at the skill that we do.

that forces us to make very deliberate decisions. But this year for us is a year of growth. it's a year of very intentional growth. So we're investing in, retail, we're gonna open up our first, location in, in the us. we're planning on doing more in, in Europe. We're significantly investing in.

The operational and servicing capabilities that we have, not only in the UK but also in Europe and in the us and we're making all of those investments based on, it's not an assumption, it's a conviction and a strong, belief that the market will only grow and that there's a very significant opportunity for us to capitalize on that.

But we need to work hard. And, it's not, it's not given, but the [00:20:00] opportunity is most definitely out there. if there's bigger macroeconomic events and beyond, then obviously, the consequences of those are difficult to predict. But we're still very much convicted, and convinced that,this year is a year of growth and that we can capitalize on that.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah, any business has to roll with the punches as they're swung. But,

Arjen Van De Vall: Yeah.

Robin Swithinbank: of the, one of the things that, has historically been a challenge for the secondary market is this issue of trust, providence, authenticity, and good old fashioned quality. Of course, all significant issues. fake stolen watches, movements filled with sawdust. Okay, probably not that last one, but we get the point.

Arjen Van De Vall: Yeah.

Robin Swithinbank: be sure necessarily of what they were buying. Now we've obviously seen a lot of brand involvement in the sector. Many offer certifications to pre-owned retailers such as yourself.

Arjen Van De Vall: their own pre-owned collections.

Robin Swithinbank: now much of that doubt would appear to have been accounted for, and certainly that might be reflected in the growth that you've described. But nonetheless, how much of a hurdle does trust remain today for? Would, would-be pre-owned buyers, and what does the sector need to do to get over that?

Arjen Van De Vall: that's a [00:21:00] fantastic question. and,it's not complicated in the sense that actually what we're selling is trust. So of course we sell watches, but first and foremost, what we sell is trust. And I. With Watchfinder that has always been at the heart of our operation. and that has to do with the care, for the product.

It's at the service centers,that we've built and where we have accreditation of some of the most, renowned, ME zones, it's authentication. and keeping in mind that probably seven, eight years ago, 80% of the fake watches that, that we got,they were terrible.

20% were good. Now it's completely reversed. 80% of those watches are actually,good, as far as fakes can be good, but, and 20% are terrible. so you need to continuously invest to be able to deliver on, your authenticity and your quality, promise. for us. I would say, and that's not just something of the last years, but when Watchfinder was founded, that has always been part of the core principles, is being in close proximity to your clients and appreciating that, buying something [00:22:00] of high value, buying it online, and then also having it pre-owned.

You're essentially battling free things at a time. And, yes, the market has matured. the clientele has changed over time as well. but trust is always an aspect. And for us, that's also why we are omnichannel. we opened our first boutique 10 years ago, and we just completely revamped that.

So that's, for us, was a huge milestone. and, so it is a continuous effort to, continuously elevate the client experience. With that said, we also acknowledge that we're only as good as the weakest link. So us, respecting lost in solar registers like inquiries, before we, we, buy any watch.

That's not something that should be unique to us. That's really anyone, any actor in the industry, they should apply to those same principles because only then, we can really elevate that experience. And that's the same with, breaking the chain between theft and resale. And you see it, and again, I'm mentioning inquiries, but you have the watch, register, all those initiatives.

if we all bundle, our efforts and if we fully [00:23:00] utilize and embrace those platforms, then we can truly have a meaningful impact on breaking those, cycles as well. 

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah,I'm sure listeners would be interested to know, and take us behind the curtain for a moment. How often do you come across fake and stolen watches in your business?

Arjen Van De Vall: So I would say stone watches is being offered to us is much less of an occurrence than fakes. I think with fake watches, we're probably looking at less than 2% of the stock, that is offered to us. but I don't think that's representative of the size of the problem.

I think because we have the reputation. a lot of people won't even try and, and some people are stubborn and they try not just once, but they try multiple times. But there's the gatekeeping that happens, is already because of our reputation and what we've built over, over the years.

So the fake problem in itself is far more pronounced than, than what we're seeing.

Robin Swithinbank: I'm gonna throw in some data there. Watch Pro reported on this quite recently.

Mm-hmm.on some research done by the Black Market intelligence specialist, Hava scope,

Arjen Van De Vall: that 40 million counterfeit watches are sold globally each [00:24:00] year. Profits roughly, $1 billion from that. it is clearly an enormous problem.

Yeah, no, it's also the access to, the tools to be able to manufacture, fake watches 20 years ago would be impossible,to do anything at the level of accuracy that, the new site is doing today. I'm not suggesting that it's easy, but it's getting closer, and especially on the authenticity side.

For me, it's, and what I see with my team and the industry, it's part art and science. So that if you've touched, 25, 50,000 watches a year, at some point, you're very good at doing that first check and saying, Hey, this doesn't feel right. And why I. Yeah, it just doesn't. And then there's the next level of investigation.

So we've really, mapped out a 60 plus step process between us receiving the watch that's even before we make the buying decision, until the watch is actually published, bought and published,and serviced onto our platform. but there's also a science component where. There's, [00:25:00] tools where for me, it's always the human that makes the end decision.

But that can already help you in, in a couple of steps of the way to identify if a watch is more likely to be fake or have counterfeit parts,or not. And, and that's fascinating to see. So while the quality is going up, there's also a whole industry being developed that give, solutions to aid you in making the right decisions.

Robin Swithinbank: Interesting and thank you for sharing that with us. look back to the future. overall data indicates that the luxury pre-owned market, not just of watches of course, is of increasing interest to consumers. A couple of episodes back and in our on the download segment, Benedict Satera shared some digital luxury group data that showed global search for pre-owned luxury goods increased by 18% in 22, in 23, and then 21% last year.

Totally, I understand. 19.6 million global searches, and she also 

Arjen Van De Vall: Mm-hmm. 

Robin Swithinbank: that the watch and jewelry searches among that 19.6 million were outpacing searches, for fashion. So what does a business like Watchfinder need to do to catch [00:26:00] that wave of interest?

Arjen Van De Vall: I, I think, what is interesting in search, at least in how it's operated today,or still is operated today, when you search for a Rolex of Mariner, you're very likely not only to see results, of the new side of the market, but you're more likely even to see results, where Rolex of Mariner watches are offered, to buy online in the pre-owned, The question is if what those journeys look like. So if someone is, investigating,I want to buy a Rolex Mariner, regardless of the channel or, regardless of the, condition or if it's new or used, we see that filters itself. And, I think a lot of the, that interest that there is in watches and or hard luxury in general, but for us in watches, We benefit. So there's that halo effect, that we see. At the same time, you also see, that the lines between you and pre-owned are blurring more and more so the availability of preowned stock in, well-established, reputable, ads. that's something that has been around for many years.

But [00:27:00] the visibility that it has and the growth that's seen, that's very significant. And for us, again, that, that. Helps us to get more credibility and to elevate, the relevance and the opportunity of buying in, in pre-owned. So I feel as an industry we can always do more and, especially the retail game.

that's something where, at the scale with which we operate, that's what we're trying to really,almost industrialized that we can roll out our concepts in, in, in relevant locations, and have closer proximity to, to our clients where historically. You would be the destination because you can't be on the high street.

And, now, today there's more and more visibility of pre-owned on the High Street and, that the platforms and the brands that operate in there, they're becoming more and more,relevant in that industry as well. So it's, It's ever evolving. but I think with a concentrated investment in client experience, and really developing,a more trusting and safe and secure environment, we will continue to see that [00:28:00] growth, happening.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah. Yeah. You talk about the blowing lines, and it was fascinating to see that. when

Arjen Van De Vall: Yeah.

Robin Swithinbank: and Rolex opened this enormous boutique on Bond Street, only a couple of months ago, that they gave a whole floor over to Rolex certified pre-owned.

Arjen Van De Vall: Yeah.

Robin Swithinbank: you can move between the floors without really noticing that you are, suddenly in a completely different zone.

In terms of, the provenance age and I suppose price point of the watches as well, it's clear that the bifurcation on the one hand is also, a blurring of the lines. which, I'm sure will continue to dominate the landscape for some time to come. I mean, it, it's interesting to look at some of the figures, that, I mean, those I just mentioned just now that they sound big, they sound quite convincing.

But I suppose we should probably also caveat by saying that those figures, represent a very small percentage of overall search for luxury.

Arjen Van De Vall: Yeah. Yeah.

Robin Swithinbank: I, looking to the future, there is this prevailing sense that consumers have a really, great appetite for products with a high price to value ratio.

That almost seems to be the fee rouge running through the whole luxury industry at the moment. do you therefore see a future in which the pre-owned watch market is indeed as large as the primary [00:29:00] watch market? And if you do, how soon do you think we get there?

Arjen Van De Vall: I think it could, that could very well be true. at the same time, I would also very much welcome it if we see, a continued strong growth pace in new, and in PreOn. I don't think that they need to be. exclusive, right? Or that's that it's pre-owned, winning over new, I think actually, and that's what with, you've mentioned Rolex CPO.

We've been very fortunate that we've been able to develop a pilot with Cartier, in certified pre-owned last year, November. We launched a second initiative supporting consult, with CPO. and that means that more and more brands are getting interested in, both sides of the spectrum, that it's not just isela a watch and then, it's the after sales part.

and we'll see you again in seven years, or in four years or five years for your servicing, but that they're also. There's a genuine investment from these brands, to understand, client journeys and what happens with that watch after, we've sold it. And so in [00:30:00] tandem, I think there's a lot of, strength,

So again, it's not a winner takes all, proposition. I would greatly welcome, very strong growth and very strong fundamentals on both sides of the equation. from our point of view, the ability to capture, that audience that also sits a lot where pre-owned is more pronounced in online, as a comparison with, with new, and I do believe that there's a tremendous opportunity for us to really develop that omnichannel experience where you can bring the watch, and the experience to the clients.

And, in doing so, potentially,drive further growth, acceleration. But who wins? I think that, to me is almost irrelevant. I think as a, as an industry as a whole, including pre-owned, I hope that we see continued growth and I hope also that. Pre-owned, is being seen as from an experience point of view, it's not about being the equal, but at least that the experience that we bring is so elevated compared to where it was 10, 20 years ago.

I think we must leave it there with a note of anticipation, hanging eagerly in the air, who [00:31:00] knows what's to come. But, it's good to hear you optimistic. many thanks for coming on the Luxury Society Podcast and good luck in your pre-owned and pre loved endeavors.

Thank you. Thank you for having me. 

Robin Swithinbank: David, I'm sorry you missed that one. It was a pretty frank conversation with Arian, at least as Frank as we could probably expect from the CEO of a company that belongs to a publicly listed group.

For example, I thought it was very interesting to hear that 2% of the watches Watch Finder is offered are fakes. Uh, no doubt the pre-owned luxury watch business is a market segment that is far more open to abuse than most in luxury. But after 23 years, as Arjen said, working in the trust business, it's not a surprise to hear that watch finder.

Has developed a 60 step process to weed out fakes and stolen watches. And I've got some other takeaways, but, for you listening back to it, what stuck out?

David Sadigh: No, I think it's very, compelling to see how watch Finder managed to, grow from an independent company now to a fully integrated, Richmont, uh, owned company. as I think everyone noticed their business model is slightly different, from [00:32:00] the one of Chrono 24 and so on in the sense that they are indeed a retailer, which means that also the view that they have on the market is slightly different.

they are like seeing, less watches than Chrono24. But they are also ensuring that those watches are being acquired, which means that from a trust standpoint, there are like, probably like other element to safeguard,the brand and the different products that are offered on the platform.

Now, if I really look at the big picture, and how, watch Finder also is, Evolving in that market,reconnecting with some of the previous discussion we had, you and I Robin on the podcast, it seems quite evident that, this watch, CPO market is going to continue to grow.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah.

David Sadigh: yeah, I'm quite confident about it because when we also look at the number on DLG side, obviously what we see is that you always have the big usual suspect, char Mill, Rolex,audemars piguet, Patek and all those brands obviously, across most of their collection they keep their value.

[00:33:00] even in some cases you can see their value increasing over time. but that's not the reality for most of the brand. There is one outlier to that guess who.

Robin Swithinbank: FP Jordan, someone like that.

David Sadigh: Yeah, probably f peon is probably one of those brand with probably also a very strong, appeal on the auction market. But the surprising fact is that there is only one brand that do not belong to the club of the high end luxury brand that seems to be on track with the overall market as far as retention value is concerned, and it's tso.

Yes, you heard me right ti So apparently the PRX boom has generated enough demand so that if you buy A PRX right now, you can try to sell it around the same price. plus five minus five, compared to its original, price.

Robin Swithinbank: I find, I'm completely honest. You can tell I'm quite flabbergasted by that, if only because, not because it's a bad watch. Far from it. The PRX is a terrific watch, a brilliant design, great price point, nonetheless, certainly in Swiss made [00:34:00] terms is a very high volume brand, and very high volume brands don't tend to offer great value retention.

So I'm astonished to hear that. But at the same time, quite pleased because I think the PRX has done a huge amount of the heavy lifting for the Swiss watch industry over the past four or five years since it was introduced to compel a younger audience into the market. So I'm really pleased to hear that, but I am quite surprised, I must say.

David Sadigh: And I wouldn't be surprised that, the point you just mentioned about the younger, clients is also one of the reason behind this, retention value because we know that those younger clients are also more at ease flipping their watches, changing from one brand to the other and so on.

Probably providing more liquidity as well. to some extent for some of the pieces. So I'm at the impression that, many of us were looking at the CPO market as people trying to make money, trying to resell their watch and so on. but maybe we have to change a bit the way we look at the market and it seems that we cannot really go against the grain.

It seems that the multiplication of online platform. the element [00:35:00] of trust that are like getting reinforced, the sustainability element, also being probably one of the key driver, who knows? Maybe one day we will realize that like in the luxury car business, 70% of the overall luxury car market will be driven by, CPO.

Robin Swithinbank: personally I think that's hugely likely. if I were making a bet at this point, I'd say that you were spot on. You were right on the money. I probably had three key takeaways I'd say from the conversation, but the first one I is very much in line with what you are saying, that there is an increasingly symbiotic volume relationship that is coming to define the primary and secondary markets.

Increasing volumes of secondary market watches. first of all, it's obvious that's going to happen. The more watches that are made and sold at primary, the more watches there are potentially available at secondary. But these volumes have overlapped with decreasing volumes of primary market watches and new volumes have almost halved over the past decade. while at the same time pre-owned sellers such as Watch Finder, and I've spoken to others recently who report the same incidentally, [00:36:00] they're recording increased revenues. at a time when values have fallen dramatically, as I said in the interview, that are in 12 consecutive quarters of price declines. So if that's the case, volumes must be increasing simultaneously. So we're moving towards this watch market future that I suspect will be defined by low volume and high value sales of new watches with the pre-owned market acting as the watch industry's volume engine. I think this is why so many brands are getting into pre-owned Rolex as the obvious leader among them. and it's why Richemont bought Watch Finder seven years ago, a move that's now starting to look really very prescient indeed.

David Sadigh: Makes sense. Makes sense. And back in the days, still a couple of years ago, like most of the brands were like paying attention to the gray market and really focused on the selling the sellout and ensuring that the stock level are well managed. And obviously this is this will continue in the future, but I think there is a new dimension now, which is really like the evolution of this pre-owned market with clients that are like much more eager to switch [00:37:00] from one channel to another if they see that they can realize a good deal while being in a trusted environment with some warranty elements and so on.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah, completely. 

Obviously this industry is one that's matured very quickly. the impact of the pandemic on the pre-owned market was significant and I think that it has matured a lot as a consequence of that. And clearly the downward trajectory in terms of pricing over the past three years, has been a correction, to a market that had pretty much spiraled outta control. And I think we can probably see too in our ends comments and. I've spoken to a number of pre-owned retailers recently, and they've all said the same, that the secondary market won't feel the impact of factors such as skyrocketing gold prices or President Trump's tariffs until the primary market has absorbed it.

And that could be some months down the line. It could be a year that he didn't pretend that he would know. But it was interesting, I think that the pre-owned market has really started to figure out what its role is, how it relates with the primary market. And of course, when it comes to running a business like that's essential because you've gotta try and project the future [00:38:00] and make sure that, your business is gonna tolerate whatever's thrown at it. And personally, as I said in the interview, I'd be optimistic for the pre-owned market. Given all the circumstances the industry looks at to face the rest of this year, certainly optimistic that volumes will continue on their current upward trajectory. And perhaps also in pricing terms too. Demand may well increase, I suspect it will as a consequence of rising prices at New, and we said before in this pod that there's little price elasticity left in the market, which is bad news for primary, but it's good news for secondary.

David Sadigh: I think we're like, probably entering the era of convenience and speed rather than ego and pride. So, who cares about getting, some champagne and, Nice treatment in a boutique when you are not sure of getting the allocation, when not all the products are available in stock. So if you can find the exact same product in a convenient way, in a safe, place, and at a cheaper price, I'm sure that there will be some clients that would be more and more favoring this type of option.

Robin Swithinbank: Well, definitely. and that brings me to my [00:39:00] third reflection, which, relate to comments that are inmate about the increased interest in pre-owned Omega, which becomes quite an interesting case study. know, Omega's parent company, swatch Group, has come in for a bit of a bashing in the watch. Business media, particularly in just the past few months, as we discussed with Lucas Sulker in our last episode. But actually that trend has been gathering momentum for quite some time now. I think a lot of that is to do with pricing, again, as buyers have reacted negatively to Omega's price hikes. Now, word is that today, and I've heard this from multiple sources, that are struggling to shift their Omega allocations, but, and I think this is really important. would appear not to be an issue of awareness or of desirability. omega remains the brand that put watches on the moon. It remains the brand that equips James Bond. it remains the brand that times the Olympics every couple of years. But what we're seeing now is that this appears to have [00:40:00] it, it appears that this desire and this demand are being channeled through the pre-owned market where prices are that much lower. So, to give you one example, I just searched on Watch Finder for a pre-owned speed master professional. the one that's got the Master chronometer movement, the up to date, master chronometer movement, I founded a 2021 model for 5,310 pounds with box papers, 16 months remaining manufacturers warranty.

Just as you were saying just now. And it's a full 30% less than the new model, which is priced at 7,500 pounds. So, yes. So which as a consumer, which are you gonna go for, particularly if you're firmly convinced that you can trust a certified pre-owned seller? it's a potentially a rhetorical question at this point, but I think it does create this new paradigm, which is that, until it gets into the pre-owned game, omega is competing with itself.

David Sadigh: Yeah, it's a great observation. the challenge with brands which have seen their prices, increasing over the last 10 years in a significant manner is, obviously [00:41:00] quite, quite clear, right? Is that at some point some folks might be trying to sell the Omega C Master or speed Master at 30%, but it doesn't necessarily mean.

They're losing money because maybe they bought it like at a time where the prices were like, even lower. It's also an interesting learning for the brands is the fastest you try to increase your prices.

The more, space you create as well for people to potentially, try to sell their watches on the pre-owned market, therefore potentially hurting also your full price sales.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah, it's a very awkward paradigm, for the industry currently. 

David Sadigh: David, before we, bring this conversation into land, any final thoughts?

the reason why we decided to also spend more time analyzing this pre-owned market, trying to identify, the correlation between the pre-owned market, the gray market, and obviously the evolution of the primary market is because we firmly believe also with the evolution of AI and new algorithms, and obviously Max at, mentioned that at a couple of occasion.

[00:42:00] It's, we have an opportunity using AI to better understand and decipher the dynamics of those markets. So I'm pretty sure we'll have follow up stories on how the primary, secondary, markets are evolving and what does it mean in term of new business model and potential,pricing, elements for brands.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah, interesting. Well, we will watch on with some anticipation. but yes, we must call time on this conversation and, bring in Benet for on the download. Thanks, David.

David Sadigh: Thanks, Robin. 

Robin Swithinbank: Okay. And now to on the download, which means it's time to welcome back to the Pod Benedict Terrace, d G's partner and international client director Benny. Good to see you. What have you got for us in this episode?

Benedicte: Hi Robin. Well, following up on your interview with Arjen, I want to dive into DGS latest sentinel data on luxury watch value retention in the secondary market. Some of the findings are quite surprising.

Robin Swithinbank: Okay. Give us a quick flyer. What does Sentinel Track?

Benedicte: Sentinel is our proprietary tool that monitors the luxury pre-owned and gray market globally. We [00:43:00] track over 600,000 listings weekly across 28 watch brands to understand basically which time pieces hold their value and which don't. It's essentially a realtime health check account, brand desirability.

Robin Swithinbank: Okay. And what's the headline from your latest analysis?

Benedicte: What we're noticing recently is how dramatically the traditional luxury hierarchy is being disrupted. Relle Mill tops our retention rankings with a remarkable 44% premium over retail prices. And here's what's telling. We only found 47 unique richard mille products listed for resale that suggests owners simply don't want to sell them.

And it's completely different dynamic from other luxury brands.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah, that is interesting. I mean, there's want to need, isn't there? Perhaps, I suppose if you're in a position to drop hundreds of thousands of dollars on an rm, you are, well, let's say you are unlikely to need to release the equity six months down the line. But, anyway. What about the traditional watchmaking elite?

I.

Benedicte: Well, this is where it gets interesting, the so-called Holy Trinity Sweet WA [00:44:00] watchmaking, composed by Patek Philippe audemars piguet Vacheron Constantin is fragmented when looking through the lens of resale value. You while Patek Philippe maintains 25% premium and audemars piguet commands, 26% Vacheron Constantin on the other end, lags behind with resell values, 25% below retail.

So this Brexit traditional unity and suggests that heritage alone isn't enough anymore.

Robin Swithinbank: I, I must say I'm, well, I'm not surprised that Vashone has lower retention value rates than Patek and ap. It, it has had a few good years, and so I thought it might have caught up a bit, but, uh, we know that demand for the brand, as with many others, of course, has cooled. perhaps what we're seeing here is that the market has become saturated to the point where supply of vashone now outstrips demand.

Anyway, anything else you're seeing in the data?

Benedicte: Yes. Um, so in the resale market, sports and casual luxury pieces consistently outperform traditional dress watches in terms of value retention, which perhaps can also linking back to, to Vacheron in some [00:45:00] respect. The top performers are overwhelmingly sports watch items, think GA's, Royal Luka, or Rolex's, G and T and Submariner Collections.

The second of a market clearly favors everyday luxury over formal occasion timepiece.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah, I'm, I'm not surprised by that. I think that rings true with all the anecdotal evidence. this is where it gets a bit squeaky though. any notable under performers,

Benedicte: Yes, so the fashion driven segment is struggling significantly. Louis Vuitton watches lose over 50% of their value, which is huge. Chanel drops 45%, and several other prestigious fashion houses see similar declines between 40 and 50%. So this suggests clearly that you know, there's a distinction between pure player watchmaking brands and fashion brands that happen to make watches.

Robin Swithinbank: Ouch. I'm quite surprised by that as well, I think because those brands have had, very good years, have introduced some, very novel designs and have proven themselves, to be useful additions to the watchmaking landscape. Anyway, [00:46:00] uh, summarize those takeaways for us bene.

Benedicte: maybe we'll change over time, but, uh, for these episodes, the three key insights that come out is first ultra focused production strategies can create exceptional value. Richard Mille's approach of extremely limitation clearly works. Second sports and casual luxury dominate resale value retention over traditional, formal PCs and of a buyer as a better long term investment.

And third, we see distinct performance patterns between pure watchmaking brands and those from other luxury sectors. So essentially we see that a secondary market has become time referendum on brand relevance.

Robin Swithinbank: Excellent as always. Uh, the data offering us some acute observations there sometimes painfully, so thank you for bringing that to us. Good to see you.

Benedicte: Thank you, Robin.

Robin Swithinbank: Thank you for listening to the Luxury Society Podcast. If you've enjoyed this episode and would like to hear more, don't forget to subscribe. And if you want to go deeper into any of these topics, check out luxury society.com where you'll find stories, insights, and [00:47:00] profiles that unpack what's going on in the world of luxury right now.

I've been your host, Robin Swithinbank, and this has been the Luxury Society Podcast available on Apple, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts.