BONUS Episode: Robin and David review Dubai Watch Week

In this special bonus episode of The Luxury Society Podcast, hosts Robin Swithinbank and David Sadigh look back at the big themes that shaped Season 2, from Dubai Watch Week and the GPHG to the shifting dynamics of China, the rise of AI and what luxury can expect heading into 2026.

Fresh from Dubai Watch Week, they discuss why the event has become a global force in watchmaking and what the Middle East’s growing influence reveals about the future of the industry. They also examine how the GPHG might evolve to better reflect today’s watch landscape and why greater unity across brands is becoming essential.

Looking ahead, Robin and David share their outlook on key forces set to impact luxury, including U.S. tariffs, energy costs, wealth migration and China’s next chapter and reflect on the standout conversations that defined the season.

Tune in for:
- Why Dubai Watch Week now matters globally
- How the Middle East is reshaping luxury
- The future of the GPHG
- What 2026 could mean for China and the U.S.

Brought to you by Digital Luxury Group.  Produced by Juliet Fallowfield, 2025  fallowfieldmason.com

Transcript

Robin Swithinbank: [00:00:00] Hello and welcome to the Luxury Society Podcast, brought to you by Digital Luxury Group.

I'm your host, Robin Swithinbank and this week we've got a quick bonus episode for you as we wrap season two ahead of the festive period. As everyone, I'm glad to be joined by the one and only, David Sadie. David Greetings, how are you?

David Sadigh: Excellent coming from the, fantastic weather of Dubai to the beautiful but cold weather of Geneva.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah, it was, a bit of a culture shock, wasn't it? It was quite nice to have a few days in the November sun, although as you can probably hear, I have a little bit of a cold, following my travel. So apologies for sounding a little fogged up. Uh, hopefully I'll manage a few clear thoughts over the next 15 minutes or so. so a few things I thought we might tackle, in double quick time based on our season two conversations. Uh, well, let's have a quick look at Dubai Watch Week. Let's, also do a quick review of the GPHG awards, which was a big topic of conversation last week. And then if there's time, we should, uh, have a quick look into 2026 and maybe make some forecasts before we bid goodnight to 2025.

So, first up, Dubai Watch Week. David, we were both there. What were your big [00:01:00] takeaways?

David Sadigh: Well, first, as I mentioned in the previous episode, it has been like, nearly 10 years that I. He didn't attend the Dubai Warwick. And, as Hind Sadiki mentioned in the previous episode, she was right. it's night and day and you can see that, from a small startup, this has become 

 one of the most major, industry event. Uh, I was quite impressed by the size. I was,extremely,impressed by the number of brands and top managers being present. Lots of journalists and, I think we can really see that, the Dubai Watch Week has become one of the most influential, if not the most influential, even on par with watches and Wonders, which is obviously like a different type of, of event.

but, yeah, there is no doubt that, this event is like,extremely important, even probably strategic, for, many of the, meison and the brands, exhibiting. what did you think Robin?

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah, I could do a whole 45 minute episode on this. I think, um, forced to be pithy. I would pick, I, I'll pick [00:02:00] three things. I think the free entry, first of all was very significant. It brings the watch sector out from behind closed doors, so. The news was out, the day after the show that 49,000 visitors over five days had attended.

That's a record more than double last time. but I thought that was also a sign that there's more than enough interest out there to sustain, an industry that has been in recession for the past two years. And the Swiss have a big lesson from Dubai Watch Week to learn here. Second, I think the show was confirmation of the gravitational shift away from Europe to the Middle East, which a number of CEOs I spoke to commented on.

Dubai is on fire. the luxury sector, in the UAE is in growth against the backdrop of global decline. The country is open to business. It's safe, it's respectful, it's quite warm as well. It's very clean. and I got this real sense that it's just generally optimistic about the future. and that's pretty contagious. Uh, it's really contagious. And

I think those of us who were there were really energized, not just by the event, but by where we were, in Dubai. And so I can see why entrepreneurs and ambitious professionals are moving out there in droves. and then I think the third thing, [00:03:00] which reflects on what Hindu was saying to us in Sidiki, the organizer, the founder of, Dubai, what week was saying to us on the episode that we recorded a couple of episodes back, she said that, She said that she had a waiting list of brands who wanted to be there. she said that there would be a number of CEOs there this year, who were representing brands that weren't attending, but would be there just to check it out. And indeed we saw teary, Sterner Paddock Philippe there, for example.

So, Dubai Watch Week becomes the hottest ticket in watchmaking, not just for visitors. but for brands, she said, that she's got no plans to increase the size or the frequency of the show. So, perhaps it'll be one in, one out, I dunno. But, certainly I'm, I would rather, her than me making those decisions, that's gonna be quite difficult.

but congratulations to her and to her team for organizing a terrific event.

David Sadigh: Yeah, I was expecting like, clients mostly, from the Middle Eastern. But in reality, many of the brand I spoke to told me that they got lots of Americans coming as well. younger collectors, crypto folks, but also like startup guys traveling just as group of friends to buy watches and so on.

we got clients telling us that, [00:04:00] they. Exceeded their target. and that was not,in a bragging way, but being extremely happy. And I think this positioning that, in describe as a distal and for watches, in fact it's not fully B2C, it's not fully B2B, it's those type of new hybrid type of model that is strongly experiential where everyone can find some on take value.

You have some on take value if you're a collector. You can find some if you are like,just an enthusiast, a watch enthusiast. I think if you like shopping, there were like people around that were just interested about model luxury part and so on. And I think they managed to, create this special atmosphere that you described really well that seems to be pleasing, everyone without sounding too vanilla.

And I think that's, kudos to,To them. I think it's,impressive. and I think it underlies also, as you said, the shift towards the east, and this willingness of trying to, develop further some of the market around. We spoke many times about Saudi Arabia, and I think one of the key learning was the importance of Saudi Arabia.

And there is, I think, a cherry on the top, obviously, having Jean before the Rolex, CEO. [00:05:00] Being,publicly speaking for probably 45, 50 minutes, in front of a selected audience of journalists, collectors, brands, and so on. you'd probably notice because you were seated next to me, that there were also lots of CEOs, on the first, role, also watching, looking and so on.

And I would keep this message of Unity and the importance for the industry to, act as one, as being the strong message being, conveyed by, Jean Dufour. And, I think what he mentioned about the apprenticeship and the level of investment of Rolex and the fact that many of them can go and work for the other industry, and how is it important for brand to invest towards next generation of watchmakers and artisan, et cetera.

I think that was an important message and having this message, in the middle of Dubai. With lots of the clients, collectors and so on, I think makes it quite, as you said, energizing and, bring I think a wave of optimism amidst the current, let's say,tricky, geopolitical and sales context.

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah, I agree wholeheartedly with all that. interesting. On the point of unity and collaborating [00:06:00] together, indeed as Jean Frederick before said to us,when we interviewed him, we asked her why some of the missing brands were missing. We asked her why Swatch Group wasn't present, and she said, you'll have to ask them.

So actually, in between times, since we, recorded that interview. I have interviewed, mark Hayek, CEO of Blancpain, the president of,the high-end watchmaking division at Swatch Group. And,he said it was political,was his response. He didn't give me any more than that. But, I would love to see the Swatch group brands, and others besides, become much more engaged with, with these large scale industry events that, increase as I've so often said, the, the core temperature of the industry and, translate the stories to a global audience. Anyway. that's quite enough.

On that, let's, have a quick chat about the GPHG, which was a big topic of discussion at Dubai Watch Week amongst my colleagues, certainly and indeed with some of the senior executives that I bumped into at the show. Now, for listeners who are unfamiliar, I should just say that the GPHG is the biggest annual industry awards do in watchmaking. David, your French speaking. Perhaps you better give us the full name. It sounds so much better when you say it. despite the fact that it's the largest annual [00:07:00] industry awards team, most of the top luxury watch brands don't take part. So we've got no Rolex, no Cartier, no Omega, no Patek, no Ricard Mille, no vacheron constantin. On and on it goes. One analyst I spoke to after this year's event said that 100% of the nominees accounted for just 15% of the industry's total sales.

So my view is that just can't continue. and that was very much, the view of, I can't think of anybody I spoke to who didn't agree with that. at Dubai Watch Week last week, the event needs a written and branch overhaul if it's to maintain its standing. And I fear not to become a bit of a laughing stock, which dare we say, after this year's host unto Korn, read out three of the winners names before they were due to be announced.

Arguably, it is to a degree already, but I think it, it gets the point where people have gotta start sharing their vision for what this thing could be. And how it might work. my view is to get rid of the pace play format because it gives brands the option to opt out, then hand the job of short listings to watch buying public. Maybe final judgment is still brought by the GPHG Academy or jury, where you bring in some expert views that's still relevant. the event itself I think needs to be flooded with brand [00:08:00] ambassadors, turn it into the Met gala of watchmaking, sell the broadcasting rights or internationally, bring in non watch related sponsors to replace whatever revenues are generated by pay to play. It's a pretty basic pitch. It needs an awful lot of, a lot more thought, of course, and goodness, there's a lot to organize there, but, I've spoken about it with a number of big brands outside the GPH cheaper emitter, and let's just say they didn't hate the idea. David, what do you think?

David Sadigh: I think you mentioned lots of,very important elements. this idea of having like too many brands representing only 15% of the total sales, obviously is some kind of nonsense. And I think that's probably like the biggest challenge. Rolex obviously do not participate and Pat as well to any of those prizes, but by listening to Jean before the other day in Dubai, he mentioned the apprentice part being so important.

So maybe there is a way, speaking of Unity, as he mentioned, of inviting Rolex as well to join and saying that they will be in charge of giving a special price for the apprenticeship. For example, so that they can still be associated to the event. I think that might be a proposition that at least could be like,probably, uh, uh,discussed and I'm pretty [00:09:00] sure that, amongst the other brand, they might be option To join and even if they don't agree to join as you said, to make sure that at least their watches are being represented no matter if they opt in or not. And I think that's like probably key at the moment. My impression is that there are like too many prizes. 

Robin Swithinbank: Yeah, I. 

David Sadigh: the number but I think at some point, even some of the folks from L-V-M-H-I spoke to, they felt a bit embarrassed, saying, we won so many prizes and so on.

 GPG is extremely important. I think there are solid foundation across many different level. You mentioned the academy. I think they have around 1000 people with some of the most famous name in the industry being part of the academy. So I think there is a question of how do you take those ingredients and try to build, let's say the right positioning, for it to shine.

We need a strong GPHG. I think the idea you mentioned about the rights is also extremely important. In my opinion, we need to make sure that there are like, a bit more investment,behind, so that the exhibition, the winning prize and so on, can also travel a bit more around the world, [00:10:00] including in Dubai.

Robin Swithinbank: Well, where else would you go? No, I completely agree and I think I want to add my, my sentiments there to the value of the awards. I think it, it, has the potential to to enhance the industry. it already has, of course, over the 25 years that it's been running, but, there's much more that it could do. So great. all that comes from a place of fondness and, well, GPHG organizers, if you're listening, David and I are here always here, right? Finally, 2026, David, just around the corner. There's no logic to the idea, of course, that the overnight passing of one year into another might have a significant bearing on how the luxury market performs one day to the next.

But it does give us a moment to make a few forecasts. 2025, the perfect storm for luxury brands according to many chief executive. And, people who have appeared on this podcast no less. do you David, see any signs of improvement in your tea? Leaves

David Sadigh: I have one bet to make first, which is like amongst all the brands that,increase their prices following the tariff introduction. how many of them are going to decrease their prices back to the normal one ahead of the tariff? I think that would be very interesting to be monitoring.

So I will ask my team to have a close look at that to see, who is going back [00:11:00] to, to normal. no beyond those element. I think that,there is this question of AI bubble on that,You know what I believe as far as AI is concerned, I do believe it's like the biggest revolution, as we mentioned several times, since the industrial Revolution.

But this being said, we can see that the level of CapEx of overall investment that are like being made across AI are probably too high compared to the real consumption. That is going to happen. This means that at some point next year, we are going to enter into the typical phase of skepticism and the value of despair.

Like with every major technology saying, everyone is bad, it doesn't work. We are losing money. There will be big question around the stock market, on how things, evolve, especially with the us. we can see couple of signals. About the US being a bit, a bit challenging and obviously I think as always, being able to navigate in these like turbulent times, will become essential.

So I can see brand like,trying to diversify and keep the pace of opening new shops. I've been hearing quite a lot of brand [00:12:00] exploring. We mentioned Saudi Arabia trying to really open up. Try to take advantage of apparently,some laws that are like going to evolve and maybe some alcohol that would be available.

Boosting tourism in countries such as Saudi Arabia, but also lots of different other markets that are like showing lots of positive signals and, with brands, willing to,try to diversify a bit, from some of the existing, important markets. 

Robin Swithinbank: I couldn't have put it better myself on those, on those aspects. of course we're still waiting for the terms and the timing of the reduction from 39 to 15% of those US tariffs to be agreed. but certainly as far as the Swiss watchmakers are concerned. the outcome of those negotiations will have huge bearing on 2026.

The US is the sector's biggest market by a margin these days. So, lots of people waiting on tenter hooks, for the outcome of those negotiations. one of the things that, that I have on my mind, in fact are the words of our very own Jack Rozen. who appeared on the last bonus episode of this podcast, he said that there's no such thing as a crisis in China.

Only a market emerging from a teenage growth spurt into adulthood, which I thought was really interesting. I think we've, been perhaps a [00:13:00] little bit too critical of the Chinese market over the last three or four years as it has become, well less reliable should we say, to the luxury industry. We, Jack reported that many brands have been,improving their sales in Q3 Chinese luxury brands and ev makers are in the ascendancy. So next year I, I'm really not qualified to make any big predictions here, but, there's part of me that just feels that China may yet prove to be the good news story that we're gonna need to hear next year, perhaps in 2027.

maybe a bit soon to call it for 26. But, interesting developments there nonetheless. What do you think of that?

David Sadigh: I think quite a lot of, different, things I, under the impression that obviously, Know, if you really look at like the production of PhDs, China is by far, country number one. And at the age of AI technology disruption and so on, there is no doubt in my eyes than the value creation that will come out of China is going to increase.

There is a second interesting,insight that I read the other day. I think it was in the Economist. About the cost of, electricity production in China being lower, but also the overall capacity of, [00:14:00] electric consumption, production that has surpassed the us, by far hence the, Americans right now trying to push quite hard in trying to increase their electric, capabilities because at the end, what you need to be successful in tomorrow's world.

At least on this like tech,revolution, you can see that a lot of that will be linked to electricity production, cost of the electricity chip set, PhD talents, computer scientists, you can build. And when you look at those ingredients, I think we are also,going to witness a comeback of China on the AI scene.

this is going to be,supported with probably lots of wealth creation. Now, would those Chinese still live in China, in Singapore, or in Dubai? That would be like another question.

Robin Swithinbank: More questions than answers. Interesting point you make about energy. I was listening to a podcast just the other day with Sir Jim Radcliffe of Iios fame, and he was, remarking on the fact that, European manufacturers of anything, obviously luxury's Heartland is in Europe, but manufacturers of anything in Europe are paying four to 500% higher energy rates than their competitors in [00:15:00] places like China, India, the us, which is of course hugely prohibitive, particularly when it comes to setting costs. it's almost the sort of the hidden crisis within the luxury industry is that, brands are having to pay so much in energy costs compared to some of their competitors around the world, which is driving prices up. And until that changes, it's gonna remain a thought in their side.

David Sadigh: in 2000 and 10, around 2010, China surpassed the US already in term of electricity production. That was like, around 4,000, terawatt hours. now China is more than twice. Benefit for more than twice of the production of the us. So of course we are not here to speak too much about energy, but I think that in tomorrow's world, it'll be very important to understand the dynamics that are like shaping the future of the market.

and I think obviously like energy consumption would be one of the dimension that will be closing. Having a close look at, a bit like when we look at gold price. A bit like when we look at real estate, those would be like,very important, metrics to better understand not only the value [00:16:00] creation, but also the value migration, as we mentioned also regarding some of the key cities around the world.

So I do expect also to see more, millionaires. leaving, their home country or their current country of residence, I think you and I spoke off the record about the situation of the UK and the fact that many of those people left to Milano, left to Portugal, left to Dubai, and, AMED the impression that, this is going to continue.

And obviously,when you see. The tax incentives, the security level for millionaires, people, in the Middle East able to wear their watches and very expensive Patek and, without, thinking too much about security issue. I think at some point we are going to see more and more people.

Probably leaving, some of the European countries, maybe the US as well, in such, not only, of paying less taxes, but also probably, being able to feel a bit safer.

Robin Swithinbank: Agreed. I've noticed that during the course of our conversation, the sun is set here, so I've suddenly been plunged into darkness and my face is illuminated quite bizarrely. Which, reminds me that the sun [00:17:00] is now setting on season two of, the Lux Society Podcast. David, I hope you've enjoyed it.

David Sadigh: it was like a fantastic, chapter two, but I think we have to ask the question to our listeners and, uh, based on the feedback we got, in Dubai and around, it seems that, some of you are enjoying the show. So, thank you Robin. And, uh,looking forward to starting, season three. 

Robin Swithinbank: Yes. Thank you. I've enjoyed it enormously as well. Learned a huge amount. we've spoken to some fascinating people and, I suppose at this point,

David Sadigh: Just before we go, Robin, if you have to keep only one thing from, uh, this season, uh, two, 

 One thing I keep from season two, goodness, we've spoken to some extraordinary people. The energy of the ve and. those episodes will live long in the memory. I think, to be honest with you, the thing I've learned most about this season remains China. Some of your, analysts that we've had on the series have, really opened my eyes to that market in a way that I didn't understand it before.

Robin Swithinbank: And, I mentioned it just now, didn't, I hope I'm not gonna repeat myself, but I think, uh, walking away from the season, one of the things that I've, reflected on most with colleagues in the industry is this idea that China is simply a maturing [00:18:00] market, not a market in decline. and I think that will shape 2026 and 2027, and we'll come back to it in our conversations very regularly.

What about you?

David Sadigh: I think, I kept special,memory of the Rafa episode. I think seeing someone moving from professional sport to address a turnaround situation. I think the entrepreneur in me, got quite fascinated by this conversation. And like you, I think the energy, and the passion, transmitted by many of the guests we have been spoken to and obviously Jean Franco as well. I think were like, important moments.

Robin Swithinbank: Yep. Professional crushes left and right. Right. David, that's the season two wrap. lovely stuff. We'll leave it there. by saying thank you to all those guests who've come on this season. Also to the team at GLG who make the show happen, to our wonderful producer, Juliet Fallowfield, for all her handholding. On the tech and for making us sound good. Although good luck with my call today, Juliet, and of course to you all our loyal listeners will be back in January for season three. But for now, this has been season two of the Luxury Society Podcast. [00:19:00]