What’s Next for Calgary and Okotoks Real Estate in 2026?

Is Alberta’s housing market finally cooling — or just catching its breath?

Carlin Lutzer sits down with Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB), for a deep dive into the shifting real estate landscape across Okotoks, Calgary, and surrounding communities. 

From international migration dips and rising housing starts to the balancing act between resale and new homes, Ann-Marie offers expert insight into what’s driving the data and what it all means for buyers, sellers, and investors heading into 2026. 

The conversation also touches on big-picture economic factors, the million-dollar market, and yes, even the political wildcard of Alberta separation. 

Listen For

3:23 What does a Chief Economist at CREB actually do—and why does it matter?

6:54 How has the slowdown in migration shifted Calgary’s housing demand?

9:11 Why is Okotoks seeing tight supply but flat pricing in 2025?

17:35 How does the current market compare to 10- and 20-year averages in Okotoks and Calgary?

33:24 Could a referendum on Alberta separation derail real estate investment?
 

Connect with guest: Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist, Calgary Real Estate Board

LinkedIn| Calgary Real Estate Board

Connect with Carlin

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Transcript

Announcer (00:00):

It's the Okotoks podcast coming at you with small town vibes and big rock energy. Thanks to Carlin Lutzer Real Estate.

Carlin Lutzer (00:20):

Welcome back to the Okotoks podcast. I'm your host, Carlin Lutzer. Today I'm joined by someone whose insights shape how thousands of Albertans understand our housing market. Ann-Marie Lurie, the chief economist with the Calgary Real Estate Board, Ann-Marie, is one of the reasons why realtors show up early, take notes, and hang on to every word at the CREB Forecast event in January. Her perspective helps us all make sense of the trends, the surprises, and the big picture forces shaping Calgary, Okotoks and the surrounding communities. In our conversation, we cover everything from local market pressures in Okotoks to migration trends to why our region is one of the most challenging and fascinating real estate markets in the country to predict. We also talk about housing supply, price trajectories, the 2026 outlook, and yes, even the curve ball about what a potential Alberta referendum might mean for investment instability. This is a rich conversation, thoughtful, honest, and packed with value for homeowners, buyers, investors, and anyone trying to understand where a market is headed. Let's get into it. Ann-Marie, thank you so much for joining me today.

Ann-Marie Lurie (01:38):

Happy to be here

Carlin Lutzer (01:39):

Now as this is the Okotoks podcast. I'm going to put you on the spot, if that's okay. When was the last time you were in Okotoks?

Ann-Marie Lurie (01:47):

Actually, it was maybe three weeks ago.

Carlin Lutzer (01:50):

Really? Okay, and what brought you down? My guess is Costco.

Ann-Marie Lurie (01:55):

No, my daughter plays hockey. So she was playing your AAA Okotoks team.

Carlin Lutzer (02:01):

Oh really? Okay. Did we win?

Ann-Marie Lurie (02:04):

No.

Carlin Lutzer (02:06):

Geez. Okay. Okay, well congratulations on the win, but yes, no, so you are with CREB. When we say CREB, what we mean? There might be some listeners that might not be familiar with what CREB is, but it's the Calgary Real Estate Board. Now the Calgary Real Estate Board is not just Calgary, it's Greater Calgary as well, and the radius is quite large of the Calgary Real Estate Board. But your title at the Real Estate Board is Chief Economist. Can you tell us a little bit what that's all about and what that entails?

Ann-Marie Lurie (02:42):

So really what I do is I assess general market conditions. So my job is really focusing on understanding the broader economy and how it influences specifically housing. So I specialize in housing, that's what I do. So I look at all of those factors influence the market, and then of course I look at all of our data that we collect and I take those numbers and I publish them and I do a lot of analysis around those numbers. So really the primary role that I spend doing is looking at various factors, whether it's economic, government, whatever it might be that's influencing housing market activity.

Carlin Lutzer (03:23):

Well yeah, because have to have your ear to the ground pretty close of any new developments and any layoffs and any new companies that are moving to town. So well, is the Calgary market, in your opinion, maybe one of the most difficult markets to be an economist in Canada?

Ann-Marie Lurie (03:50):

I dunno. I think that's all perspective. I guess the challenges with Calgary is we tend to go through a little bit more. We have a lot of cycles in Calgary and it's because we have land supply. So on housing it is a little different than let's say if you're assessing market conditions in Toronto or Vancouver just because we can build supply in a different way that those markets might not be able to. I wouldn't say we're probably the hardest market, but especially right now when you look at some of the shifts that are happening in some other markets in the country. But it is definitely different and with more unique factors because it is driven by what happens in our economy and our local economy's a little different than some others.

Carlin Lutzer (04:36):

Yes, and we actually for years, not so much in the last five, seven years, it really felt that Calgary and area would, and this might sound really, and I'm just going to say it, Calgary and area really benefited off of wars that were happening in the world and natural disasters, that sounds terrible to say, but with the price of oil and gas going up during the war times or during natural disasters, Calgary and area certainly would always benefit from those types of things.

Ann-Marie Lurie (05:13):

We wouldn't in the way that, depending on how it affects the energy sector in general. So the energy sector really is a key component of our general economy. I mean, it's still is our largest source of GDP. What happens in the energy sector does matter because it influences so much employment. So when oil prices are generally high, you're not necessarily seeing layoffs, you're not seeing things like that happen. So that's one of those factors that kind of keeps things moving. The challenge becomes when energy prices become too low, then that's when you tend to see there's not new investment happening. Activity generally slows in that sector and that could impact the employment workforce. So it's not that it's a direct, oh, high oil prices, it's more about how long oil prices are at certain levels and how does it influence employment and other things because you can have a high oil price, but it doesn't necessarily create a lot of job growth. So if they're not investing activity, then it doesn't matter. So it's really important to consider all of those factors. And I think when we think what's happened over the past couple of years, I think much more of the shift that has happened has been due to the fact that we had migration that was actually strong.

(06:37):

So it was more on that factor versus just the traditional sort of energy prices were quite high. We didn't see necessarily the same level of growth in terms of employment in some of those sectors. We had employment growth, but it was different

Carlin Lutzer (06:54):

Because for a while there, even in 2025, I know they were saying that on average there was 275 people moving to Calgary each day. Has that tapered off since June? We're not seeing as many people it has. Okay. It has,

Ann-Marie Lurie (07:09):

Yeah, absolutely. So when we look at migration numbers, and again, I look at total numbers for the year and when those estimates come in, can't remember, those are estimates. Most of the numbers are provincial, so we try and estimate how many are coming into Calgary. But that being said, those numbers are down significantly this year because there's been a change in that international migration number. So the federal policy did shift a bit on how many international migrants they wanted to come in. Those numbers are down significantly. So it has changed drastically compared to just a couple years ago where we were hitting record highs on international migration. Yes, we had Interprovincial. That was also another factor. Why I look at both is because they have different influences on the market. So it's why I'm talking about them separately. Interprovincial migration tends to translate into housing demand in terms of ownership demand much sooner. So we had really strong levels as well. And that's in part because our economy was doing okay. We were creating jobs, we were attracting people. Our relative affordability really helped us attract people from places like Ontario and bc. Those numbers are also off this year. So those are things that I'm sort of watching for and it's one of those things that influences expectations on housing demand as we move forward.

Carlin Lutzer (08:33):

Right. Okay. So now my mind's going crazy and it's totally going to go off topic, but I want to hit that off topic at the end. So please remind me because with all everything going on, because there are so many different things going on in the world, not just so we say the world and then we say locally, we say nationally and then provincially and all the things, there's so many different dynamics going on, which must make your job so interesting. So let's start a little bit local. So what are you seeing specifically right now in Okotoks?

Ann-Marie Lurie (09:11):

Well, Okotoks has been a really different sort of market. Okay. I am going to say that just because you went through this period of a lot of supply and then nothing. So as of what we're seeing this year is that your months of supply, so that's one of those measures I look at. That relationship between supply and demand is still quite low relative to historical levels, but yet your prices have remained relatively stable. You've had a lot of price growth over the previous couple of years. Right now your prices are basically staying relatively flat this year, even though you still have some relatively tight conditions. And I think part of that is to do with the fact that you do have some of that competition from the new home side of the market. There has been some new home starts that have happened in your market at higher levels over the past couple of years.

(09:58):

So that's likely preventing some of the same level of price growth in the Okotoks market, despite the fact that you really don't have that much supply. Your market does really remain one of the ones that have very low levels of supply. And why I say that is because in Calgary we're seeing those supply levels really rise and okotoks, even though it's come up a bit, it's still quite low compared to what you traditionally have. So I think part of me almost would've expected to see a bit more of a price boost in Okotoks. But I think one of the factors that might prevent that is just the fact that one, you have more supply choice from the new home side. Two, you just have generally more supply choice in the overall market for people to choose from. And that's not just in Okotoks, but in Calgary and in surrounding areas. We are seeing much more supply choice right now in general, even though it's not directly in Okotoks. So that's likely what's keeping prices relatively stable.

Carlin Lutzer (11:02):

Right, for sure. And yeah, next year we're going to have a new water pipeline. So I do think that we are going to continue to have that as our population does continue to grow and new homes get built, we're going to see that kind of explode. Unfortunately, even though most of us, as soon as we get in, we like, let's lock the door, let's not let anybody else in. Let's keep it the way it is, right? Because we just went through some elections and that was a very big thing for us in Okotoks that we try to keep that small town feel that we don't grow too fast. But growth is I guess certainly inevitable. Is there other communities in the area like Cochrane, Airdrie, Chester, MI, that are seeing the same things? Or is it because their housing starts are a little bit higher and they're not as low as ours that they're still

Ann-Marie Lurie (11:56):

Yeah. Okay. So Air for one has seen so much Air and Cochrane both, and actually even Mir to that extent have seen a lot of new construction activity. So their supply levels are actually rising. And Air Dre has hit the point that they have really a lot more supply on the new home side. Resale supply is rising because there's just more of it available and that's causing some of their prices to really come off of from where, from some of the peaks that we've seen. So Odos has been pretty stable, but some of the prices are actually coming off in some of those other markets. And I think some of that is just to do with that. You have so much more supply choice and it's that competition from new as well as different locations. That has really put some down our pressure on pricing.

(12:47):

Now, again, you have to put perspective to this because even in those markets and Okotoks, you had a surge in pricing ahead of this over the past couple of years, you've had really strong price growth. So some of the adjustments we're seeing in air imagery, well, their prices grew in double digit rates for several years since the pandemic. So it's not that we're going back to what we were four years ago. So some of this adjustment is just taking out some of that really strong growth that we've had. So I think there's always some perspective on that, but we are seeing much more balance conditions and a lot more supply and a lot of those other markets. And that is due to the fact that there's been so much more construction in those areas. So that's adding to the overall supply in the general market as well. You have to consider the fact that now migration patterns have slowed a bit, so they're seeing supply is rising just as that demand growth is starting to slow off a bit

Carlin Lutzer (13:50):

For a while did we see that people that were living in the Calgary and area were simply not moving because people were moving here and we just couldn't compete with people walking in and multiple offers and putting down $50,000, $75,000 more than list. So a lot of people just were deciding not to move locally.

Ann-Marie Lurie (14:15):

Well, I think that was a general challenge when there was no supply. So when we had no supply, there was no supply and rental, no supply choice and new and no supply and resell. So over the past couple of years, that's some of the things that our general market has struggled with. And it didn't matter where you were, there was really very limited supply choice, I think, and that's why you had the multiple offers. It's why you had that sort of behavior and it actually prevents some of that transactions from happening because again, if you can't get into something, you're not freeing up other units.

(14:50):

So that was one of the challenges in the market. Now that we have more supply choice is starting to shift things a bit. So we're not seeing the same level of multiple offers. We're not seeing that sort of behavior happen. So it gives people more flexibility in terms of whether they can move and where they want to move to. Because as I said, now you have supply choice and it's not just in Calgary, it's in some of our surrounding areas as well. Like I said, Okotoks is a little less than some of the other areas, but that gives people options to substitute so they can really decide on what they want as opposed to the I must move and I must buy something now because of whatever life situation has happened, right? Yes. So it gives a little bit more flexibility, and it's one of the reasons why we're seeing much more stability in pricing is because people have choices now as opposed to a couple of years ago where you just couldn't. So usually it was more a scenario of people who had to move for various reasons, reasons then you tend to see more of that activity happen. I know you couldn't even go into rental. There was no rental available either. So even if you wanted to sell

(15:58):

And rent, there wasn't a lot of options. And it was just because so many people came here in such a short timeframe

(16:05):

And

(16:05):

It just takes time for supply to adjust. So it created a lot of, that really was part of the challenge over the past couple of years is just having no supply options in any aspect of the market. I always say you should look at not just supply on resell, you got to consider what's available and new and rental as well. They all work together.

Carlin Lutzer (16:27):

Yes. Yeah, no, that certainly was a couple years ago was brutal as a realtor actually to be showing houses and you had five or six on the list, we're on house number three, all of a sudden we're just like, okay, it's eight o'clock and they're looking at offers at eight 30. We need to get the what are you going to do? Do you like this one or not? But now it's a thing of beauty to be showing houses and not have that pressure for people. And that's why I feel like it's such a smart thing to buy when the market is not just during the high times, everybody waits to spring, well, they don't want to move in the winter, but if you were to do that now there's such a, I feel that there's some good opportunities out there, but that may change after I hear at the end of this conversation what you're going to tell us. So looking at the 10 year and 20 year averages, how does today's market in Okotoks and Calgary and area compare in terms of pricing and sales volume and inventory?

Ann-Marie Lurie (17:35):

So sales volume in Okotoks is still really in line with long-term trends. So it's not off that far. That's similar to Calgary. One of the differences in Okotoks is that your inventory, so your supply levels are still long-term trends. So that's one thing that is different in Okotoks is you just haven't seen that supply growth to the same extent. And that's why I was a little surprised. Your prices are still stable, but that being said, so you're really moving, you're not as bad as you were, so you're not in those extreme seller market conditions that we saw over the past couple of years, but you're still something that's a little short of balance, so you don't have that much supply quite yet. Whereas Calgary is a little different. Calgary is definitely moved into much more balanced territory. We're seeing that supply levels are now just pushing above those longer term trends.

(18:27):

Sales are still higher than long-term averages. And again, demand is staying relatively strong, but the difference is there's much more supply. So it's moved out of that seller's territory much more into more balanced type conditions, and the pace of that growth is starting to come off. So we're seeing prices come off in Calgary from their peak year over year changes. It really does depend on property type. And I think one of the key things to note right now is the type of supply that's coming on matters. Most of the supply has been coming on from higher density products, so apartment style units, row style units. So what I'm seeing is there's a lot more downward pressure on pricing for apartment style units and row style units just because there's much more supply of

Carlin Lutzer (19:23):

'em.

Ann-Marie Lurie (19:25):

Whereas detached, yes, supply levels have also risen, but what it's doing is it's really the areas that are in close proximity to some of the new stuff maybe isn't that old, looks very similar to the new stuff in terms of built style and things like that. That's where I'm seeing certain pockets of the market on the detached side or seeing some struggles in terms of more supply joists. Because if, think about it, if you're a resell home, you're trying to sell a resell home and it doesn't really look that much different than the brand new stuff which is coming in at a similar or just slightly higher price. Well, people have a choice between those two and they can substitute away from resale, get brand new for whatever reason, they might choose that over resale. So that tends to create certain pockets of the market with more supply. So that's what I'm seeing on detach. It's not broad base, but there are certain pockets of the market that are experiencing a bit more supply relative to the demand in that segment. So we're seeing some pressure on pricing on detach, but not to the same extent.

(20:36):

So to put some numbers to it, apartments are down roughly 8% from their peak last year from Calgary detached prices, they actually only peaked this year in Calgary, so they kind of hit a pick peak in spring and we are down from that, but not much. So year over year benchmark prices are pretty similar, slightly higher than last year. On an Okotoks perspective, again, it's a bit so when you're dealing with a smaller market, I'm always a little bit more cautious about how you look. I wouldn't look at monthly changes quite so much just because there's more variability when you're dealing with a smaller number of transactions. For

Carlin Lutzer (21:22):

The last three months we have seen a little bit of a decline, but it's also we're in the fall and encroaching in on winter months. Right,

Ann-Marie Lurie (21:31):

Exactly. So what I typically do when I'm looking at smaller markets, I might look at some of those trends, but I tend to focus a little bit more on year to date numbers just because it smooths out some of those factors. There's a couple, there is some seasonality in the data. We never used to have a lot of seasonality in housing prices in Calgary. We are seeing a lot more of that now. It's not unusual to see some pullbacks in the later part of the year. In part that's just could be just what is being sold versus in the spring where you tend to have more supply choice because as we move into the later part of the year, you also see less supply,

(22:13):

Less people are buying, but less people are also listing. So you're seeing some of that that can play out. But when I look at Otto's market generally on a year to date basis, prices are still higher than they were last year, not by the same pace of growth. So the pace of growth has definitely slowed, but you're looking at still over 1% gain on total residential. You're looking at product types, we're seeing 2% on detached, you're still seeing gains in the higher density. And I wonder if some of that is just to do with some of where the new construction's happening as well. We know some of those unions also end up on the resale side of the market. So

Carlin Lutzer (22:52):

Yeah, I do think that, yeah, I'm talking to some of the builders even just this weekend. There's certainly some supply there that can certainly be scooped up for sure. Yeah. So with us encroaching on the new year, I know that it's a big, and I don't want to steal your thunder from the forecast because what you do is all the realtors get together in January and they have a forecast event and you are the main reason why people show up because they want to hear from you and they want to hear what your prediction is. And I remember last year, in my opinion, and I'm not just saying this just because you're on my show, but you were spot on, you knew that we're going to start out the year really well, but there could be some challenges with the tariffs and all that stuff. Can you give us a little bit of a hint as to what you're expecting to happen in the real estate market in Calgary and area in 2026?

Ann-Marie Lurie (23:57):

Sure. So I think without giving away too much, I'll tell you what I'm looking at.

(24:03):

I think there's no question that we are seeing some transition in the market. So we are dealing with more supply because we've had record housing starts over the past several years and we continue to see record highs. I think those starts will start to come off. But the challenges as that stuff is we getting completed, we're dealing with more supply in the market, and at the same time we've had a shift in that migration numbers we know are going to be lower because that's in part by policy. Federal policy has said we want to take in less international migrants so there's much more supply available. And at the same time, demand is starting to come off a bit. So those two factors alone tell us that you know what, you're not likely things are going to be shifting. We're not in the same market conditions that we were last year and really we have to work through this additional supply coming onto the market. Now, the timing of how long it takes to work through that additional supply will still depend on how does our economy look. So we know that this is if we assume a steady state, but what we have to see is what's going to be that source of growth for economic activity. Calgary has been very fortunate that our employment growth has still been, while we have a high unemployment rate, employment growth has still been relatively strong.

Carlin Lutzer (25:25):

Is some of that unemployment rate high because people move here and don't have jobs?

Ann-Marie Lurie (25:29):

Yeah, a hundred percent. Okay. Yeah, that's exactly what it is. We've had so many people move here or labor forces grown and it's grown faster than the jobs being created. So that's created some of this high unemployment rate. Now I get a lot more nervous if an unemployment rate is high because people are losing jobs versus an unemployment rate that's high just because people are moving here without jobs. Very different thing to me, especially on the impact on housing. If I think back to 2015, we were losing jobs

(26:01):

And we saw the impact in our housing market over that timeframe. So I think that it is a very different scenario. This is not, we're much more balanced now. We'll continue to remain balanced. There's going to be pockets of the market that we're going to struggle with too much supply and it's going to impact pricing in those pockets of the market for sure. Now when I think about upside downside risks, one of those key things I'm looking at is what is going to be the source of investment activity? Are we going to see a rise in business investment? Are we going to see major projects come here? What's going to be that source of economic growth that can really attract people here in a way that helps to speed up that timeframe of absorbing that supply?

Carlin Lutzer (26:48):

Okay,

Ann-Marie Lurie (26:49):

What it's all about. We know we have a lot of supply. It's about how long does it take to get absorbed

Carlin Lutzer (26:53):

For sure.

Ann-Marie Lurie (26:56):

And that's probably, that's really one of those key factors that's going to influence my expectations into next year.

Carlin Lutzer (27:04):

Yes,

Ann-Marie Lurie (27:05):

I think I can say without giving up too much that there's certain segments of the market, like the apartment, condo sector that will likely continue to struggle just because there's so many units coming on and because the rental market has changed as well, vacancy rates are higher, there's much more rental supply. As I said, international migration is lower. That tends to absorb up that rental supply. So when you have more rental choice, it does a few things. One, it slows that investor demand because now they're not getting the same rents that they thought they could get vacancies much higher. So investors tend to cool off on that side of things. The next aspect is renters don't have the same push to move into ownership. They're being offered incentives to stay in rentals so they don't have to make that transition. So that tends to be one of those factors that generally slows demand as

Carlin Lutzer (28:01):

Well.

Ann-Marie Lurie (28:03):

So we're in a period in a bit of an adjustment into next year, how much of an adjustment will depend on those economic conditions,

Carlin Lutzer (28:13):

And we're maybe one or two announcements away from, and that's how our market is, is just if Mark Carney gets in there and Daniel Smith, the nurse, not just announcing one pipeline, but here's another one, and that's us being very hopeful, but knowing that it could go the other way fairly quickly as well,

Ann-Marie Lurie (28:35):

Kind

Carlin Lutzer (28:35):

Leaves us all kind.

Ann-Marie Lurie (28:37):

How do you forecast that? And again, even if these projects are announced, they're going to actually take time, but it's more of what it could do to confidence in your market and expectations of what will happen in our market should these things move forward.

Carlin Lutzer (28:51):

Yes.

Ann-Marie Lurie (28:52):

So when you get those positive signals out there that really can impact confidence in general, people are much more hesitant to make any moves if they don't know what that future state might look like, right?

Carlin Lutzer (29:06):

Yeah, correct me if I'm wrong, but a lot of times our market is very speculative as to, well, this could potentially happen, and if this doesn't, and then people pull back. I thought the acreage market at the start of 2025 was very unique. It was fascinating because it was like there was nobody waiting for the snow. Usually they wait for the snow to melt so people can see the land or whatever. But it felt to me that people were buying acreages right out the gate. And I was wondering if they were doing that based on fear with the tariffs and the other things and wanting to scoop up acreages and get out of the city. And of course, I'm just spewing stuff out because I have no idea. You probably would've a better idea as to why it seemed like the acreages went very, very quickly in the year if they were listed.

Ann-Marie Lurie (30:02):

Well, and it could be other factors as well. You got to think even some of the rezoning policies in the city, creating a little level of uncertainty over what's going to be around your home, that could have also encouraged people to consider outside of the city that doesn't have some of those policies in the same place, or you have some land around you so you don't have to worry about what your neighbor is building beside you. So there's those factors as well. And it could be, yes, again, that just value of the land, you have more land availability when you're on an acreage property.

(30:40):

And again, there can be several acreages are very different as somebody who lives on an acreage, you couldn't get me back in the city for the life of me. No, for sure. But it is a different lifestyle. It's also some of that. It could be just that wanting for that different lifestyle choice as well. And again, when you look at some of the pricing within the city versus some of the pricing in the acreage, it might've made more sense just the way that prices had risen in the city versus what level of growth that we're facing on outside of the city. So that's another factor. It's just what you're actually getting for that same dollar amount.

Carlin Lutzer (31:23):

Yes, for sure. Well, I don't want to take up too much more of your time. I do have just to kind, okay. One, I want to talk about the million plus market because that market certainly hasn't really skipped a beat, has it?

Ann-Marie Lurie (31:40):

Not really. And I think part of it is much more homes are falling into that million plus category. It used to be a very small share, but with the recent gains in pricing over the past several years, we're just seeing that now become just a lot more product is in there now. It used to be a very small segment of our market. Now, when you're thinking of the typical detached home is like 750,000. Well, there's a lot more homes that fit into that million dollar category

Carlin Lutzer (32:09):

For sure. For sure. Yeah. I think of Lang, that's one aspect. Langdon, there was a psychological barrier in Langdon not to list a house over a million dollars. And I think just this last year, they finally started to, okay, we can do it. We can actually sell houses over a million dollars in Langdon. So the other question that I have before I let you go, and this one, this is a curve ball coming your way, but I'm sure it's going to be part of your forecast, is the talk of Alberta potentially separating in a referendum and how that all comes into play in regards to your, I'm kind of laughing at you, I shouldn't be, but I'm not honest. I'm not laughing. But how on earth do you have that? Because that has to have implications on no doubt, investments. I've interviewed the forever Canadian group, the Alberta Prosperity Project. I've interviewed someone from just a writer from the Western Wheel talking about how difficult separation can be. But all that chatter about it. Does investment stay away or does investment maybe might open some doors?

Ann-Marie Lurie (33:24):

I think it depends on how serious of a threat it's considered. So again, when you hear talk of separation, if people don't really believe that that's going to happen, then there's less of an impact. But if they actually think this is a real possibility, then that can slow down investment activity. There's just so much uncertainty and it creates a lot of uncertainty if they really think this is going to happen.

Carlin Lutzer (33:52):

So even the talk of us going to a referendum, is that enough uncertainty for investment just to

Ann-Marie Lurie (33:59):

Yeah, it would be because then all of a sudden that feels a lot more real than just discussion because I think it's broadly felt that it's a bargaining tool on a national level to see versus it actually happening. But if you're going to a referendum, then that becomes could this actually happen?

Carlin Lutzer (34:20):

And

Ann-Marie Lurie (34:20):

That has the uncertainty that it creates. No question. That would have implications, especially over the short term. And it could really slow activity because that just raises how many people are going to, what does that look like, right? Yeah.

(34:39):

So many questions, and there could be endless possibilities. You talk about separation, but is it separation and then joining the US or what is it, right? Is it we're separating become 51st state, or are we separating? So there's still a lot of unknown with that. Are we our own entity and with no access to any ports and how does that work? So you can just imagine the level of uncertainty and the risk that would be associated with that should that happen. So again, I think that right now, I don't think that it's viewed as something that's going to happen. It's more of a negotiating tool. But again, if you go into a referendum, I have no doubt that you would see investment activity stall until there's some clarity over what could happen, what does this look like? And then that uncertainty would persist for several years until things are sorted out,

Carlin Lutzer (35:35):

For sure. Yes. No, absolutely. Well, I do appreciate your time. I appreciate what you do and what you mean to CREB. And I know as soon as you're making your announcement, you go on social media and all the realtors have posted what you have just stated, and I think that just shows the respect that people have for you and the work that you do at the Calgary Real Estate Board. So we do thank you for that. And I do thank you for your time, and I hope that you can come on again in a few months and give us an update as to what's going on. I know that a lot of my listeners will certainly appreciate you coming on today.

Ann-Marie Lurie (36:16):

For sure, anytime.

Carlin Lutzer (36:17):

Awesome. Thank you so much.

Ann-Marie Lurie (36:19):

Thank you.

Carlin Lutzer (36:30):

A huge thank you to Ann-Marie Lurie for joining me today. Her clarity, her honesty, and her ability to break down the chaos of the economy into something we can actually understand is exactly why she's so respected across our industry. If you're a realtor, a homeowner, or someone who just keeps an eye on the market, I hope you found this conversation as valuable as I did. Here are three big takeaways from today's episode. Number one, demand remains strong, but the composition is shifting. Migration is still supporting our market, but the pace is cooled from the peak. We're not seeing 275 people a day anymore, and that's easing pressure slightly. Those supply shortages remain in certain segments. Okotoks mirrors the Calgary story, tight supply, steady demand, and pricing that's well above long-term averages. Even with slower fall activity, our local fundamentals remain extremely solid. Builders have product coming, but affordability, challenges and low inventory continue to shape the pace of sales. 2026 will depend heavily on economic stability, energy decisions, employment trends, interest rates, and political uncertainty. A couple of major announcements, good or bad, could shift confidence quickly. The market isn't just responding to data, but also speculation and people's expectations of what's coming next. Ann-Marie, thanks again for everything you do for CREB, for the industry, and for always giving us the straight goods. And to everyone listening, if you enjoyed this episode, please follow, share, or drop a message about what you'd like to hear next. We'll see you next time on the Okotoks Podcast.

Announcer (38:13):

This has been the Okotoks podcast, proudly sponsored by Carlin Lutzer Real Estate. Until next time, take care.