Week 6 Preview Show - Commanders vs. Bears

Lee and James jump on to preview the week six tilt against the 2-2 Bears on Monday Night Football, with Josh dialling in his contributions from Wales. The show includes:

- Lee's lookback game
- Josh's 'Commanders win if' statline
- James's Matchup Matrix
- Scoreline predictions

@HailOnThreePod

Transcript

0:01

How would you describe the culture surrounding this football team? You know, the culture is actually damn good. Daniel looking, moving to his left under pressure, stays on his feet. Uh, now he falls the end zone. It is caught for a touchdown by.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 0:26

Hello, sports fans and welcome to the latest episode of the HA and Free podcast. My name is Lee back from the West Coast back at work back on the herbal teas. Back in the gym, back on the smoothies after the last two, back to back weekends on the road, enjoying sports in New York for the Rider Cup and in Los Angeles for our Washington commanders. But more importantly, back talking to James Barker in London. James, how are you?

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 1:04

Very good. Thanks. Great, great intro there. Get a little summary of your, of your jaunts and your life at the moment. But um, yeah, you need to slow down there, you know, be careful. Hunker down for the autumn months. I know you enjoy those. So, um, could see back at work and on the, on the health kick, but, um, yeah, I dunno. How, how does that look for you for the rest of the weekend? We'll see. What are your plans? Usually for like a Monday night game when we're playing.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 1:28

Yeah, I think I mentioned like I'd, I'd circled this. Away game on the schedule a long time ago, but it just so happened to be the weekend after the Rider Cup, which I'd also purchased a ticket for last year, so I wasn't gonna miss either. But yeah, it did make it quite a hectic couple of, couple of weeks, uh, cross country after going to, to New York the weekend before. So, um, yeah, just settling back into the groove here, but I don't think the either weekend could have gone much better, could they? So very much, very much enjoyable in terms of this one. Um. Yeah, gonna take it nice and easy this weekend. Now obviously I am in enemy territory this week in Bears Country, so

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 2:10

Hmm.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 2:10

the game, I'm not so sure, do I go out with some friends and kind of guy on the corner of the table, do I just stay home? So I'll make maybe a game time decision on that, but I can tell you one thing after getting back to two and two and after looking fairly decent and handy on offense. Uh, Chicago is, is getting pumped for Monday night and that look, it's more of a, a Bears PTSD thing in my opinion, but they seem to be making this game quite, quite big for them after last season in particular. So we should see why I decide to do in terms of my of action. But yeah,

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 2:49

Yeah, I was, I was gonna ask about that. What's the noise on the ground? We spoke about them probably being re-up for this one. I, what happened last year and I suspect that's firmly in their minds. Yeah. A good shout to have a game time decision, get a feel of what's going on. Um, then I guess perhaps your feelings and nerves or no nerves may decide where you go for that one. Um, but yeah, I think it's gonna be a really exciting game. Um, for me. I'm, I'm gonna be at sea, but, um. I have just purchased a VPN, um, so I'm hopeful on the time zone I'll be on, it'll be eight 30 in the morning on the Tuesday, so maybe I'll be watching it with a bit of breakfast on my phone.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 3:27

That would be amazing if I'm getting live updates from many thousands of miles away. Never, never scared to dust the passport off. Is is James. We've got a business

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 3:36

Oh, oh

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 3:37

heading, heading east, a long way. Um, we should say that Josh is out today. He's taken a,

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 3:42

Got back.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 3:43

a little, yeah, he's taken a little hiatus, uh, domestic. Trip in the uk headed to to Wales. So I hope he has a, a nice relaxing break over there. Um, so it's us today. I think let's just get, let's get into, into it. Maybe, maybe before we just hand over, as I didn't make the, um, the post game show on the weekend. I, I'll just wrap up by saying, um, that it was an amazing trip, an amazing win, and it did make me feel better about the season. It wasn't just a. In the moment, snap reaction. I don't think we've seen Jaden Daniels play to anywhere near that level in the first couple of games before he got injured seeing it live, that gave me some real confidence about the offense. So go into, um, California and score 27 points against the charges defense, that is considered pretty handy. That's really, that's really changed the mood for me. So, James, I listened to you, uh, talk with Josh on Tuesday. Having looked back at it a few days to settle, does that really make you feel pretty damn confident moving forward as well?

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 4:52

Yeah, no, it really does. Um, to be honest, on Tuesday, I'll still feeling the effects of a, a long, a long day on Sunday. Um, but yeah, no, definitely, definitely really excited. Um. Uh, going forward, if that's, if that's Jaden back. And, um, we touched on how could the offense look generally, um, we'll touch on this later, but I think we could be in for a really exciting game. Uh, might not be a straightforward win. Um. But yeah, definitely going forward, it feels like last season it felt like we could beat anyone on our day. Um, so I'm starting to get that back again after the Falcons thing. It's all a bit depressing, but, um, if Jayden's playing like that, then again I do have that feeling of, yeah, we're gonna have some really tough games coming up, but we're gonna be involved in all those games if we've got Jaden fully healthy.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 5:43

Yeah, a hundred percent. A hundred percent. And that does lead on nicely to, to this weekend's game. Then, uh, before we talk about that, I've made the rookie mistake again with the Chicago Sunrise, blinding me as James can, can see. So I'm gonna have to just pause this very, very quickly and shut my blind. Um, so give me, bear with me one second.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 6:06

I can give a running commentary of, of what's happening. So Lee is, oh, he is closed off the camera now. He is. He is bottled it. Maybe he's just wearing boxer shorts right now. So maybe he didn't wanna want me to see that while he is getting up and pulling his curtains, the, I like the sun personally signing, shining on Lee's beautiful blonde head there, but um, he has turned off the camera and here he is back. I dunno if you heard any of that, but here he is.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 6:32

I had all of it, and don't worry, I'm appropriately dressed, even though it's. Seven, 13 in the morning. Uh, be Yeah, I don't, I don't do many video calls at this, this time in the morning. If it's this early, I'm usually already in the office. So, anyway, that's been corrected so I can now see again. so let's lead into, let's lead into the bears. We're a better, better way to, to go into it. Okay. Um, Chicago then. Our friends from the Midway. A lot of my friends, obviously, bears fans, haven't lived here Good for years now. What do you think of them in general? Uh, they were, oh, and two came back to win a really tight gain than they against the Raiders, which they could have easily lost on the road. I, from my limited, um, my limited, uh, way I've watched them this year, excuse me, and from talking to some mates over here. They do seem to be keeping Caleb more upright. He does seem to be looking a little bit more confident than last year, but there's still sign of finding their groove and I'm not too sure about them. On defense in general, from what you've seen, how is your feeling about, about the Chicago just taking them kind of on their own thing, not not worrying about our

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 7:56

Yeah,

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 7:57

What do you think of Chicago this year?

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 7:58

I, I, I, I think they have grown into the season and they had a tough game against the Vikings, um, which, you know, they really should have won. Um, but they threw a lead away, really a good performance against Dallas after that. Um. Especially offensively, but I guess everyone's done that this season. But Dallas are a feisty team, so you know, that was a big win. Um, they scraped past the Raiders strangely. Um, I thought they were gonna steam through them, but they made life hard on themselves there. Um, I think they're welcomed the buy, I think they've got a lot of, um, really. Really nice young players. Um, I think their defense is very, very suspect, whether it's on the ground or through the air. Um, so yeah, I mean, going into the bay, they probably expect'em to tweak some things. Um, not looking too far to, to, um, match up just yet, but. That could have an impact. And, um, yeah, I think, I think they're an ascending team. Ben Johnson, I've said before is a strange bloke. I don't like him, but I think, um, he's probably a very good play caller. We'll see if he's ended up being a, a good head coach. Caleb has looked really good. Um, most of the time, um, their run game has been quite average of, of seen in terms of their run blocking really strong. Um. I think their running back hasn't, I've forgotten his name, swift, Deandre Swift. Um, it's before me under expectation when you look at the stats in terms of, uh, the, the lanes they're opening up for him. So, um, hard one to evaluate, but I feel like they have grown into season after a really tough loss, week one. And I think, um, would be a dangerous and feisty team going forward.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 9:42

Yeah, I. And when you have a new head coach, it takes a while to implement what you wanna look like, get your identity, cetera. You're not just gonna be able to achieve that in training camp. So I do think they're a dangerous team coming off the buy. I don't love the fact they're coming in into DC after 15 days rest. Uh, not necessarily the, the fiscal aspects of that, this stage in the season, like us having eight days coming back from. From LA I think we'll be fine. And, and the first time we get out of a game relatively unscathed by the sounds of it, which is great, but that gives'em a lot of time to kind of take a, a breath, doesn't it? And take a step back and get in the film room, a deep dive into us and our game as well, so our games. So yeah, we'll see, we'll see how they look. I'm expecting them to come out, come out fighting and, and certainly give us a lot of interesting looks offensively. it should be, it should be an interesting game. I, I looked at the next two games, and this will be a real test for our defense, right? It's two very capable passing offenses, uh, with some decent weapons. So this is, this is gonna maybe set the tone a little bit in terms of where are we as a, a coverage unit. Uh, I don't. I don't think we're gonna be able to get as much pressure on, on, um, Caleb as we did weekend in terms of they've, they've had issues on the oline historically, but they seem to have assured that up a little bit, keeping'em upright a bit more. So I think that's gonna be one to watch for this game And just talking about us then before we kinda break into my look back and then get back to the game, what. like about us at the moment? In a way, to me it feels like we've weathered the storm a little bit with these injuries kind of navigated through that really tough period. was really noticeable to me in the run game, like we had baits and syn it on the field at the same time at times. Um, which was, which is awesome because Senate seems to been developing a bit in the blocks and. You can tell he is been working on his craft. He is missed some as well. I think. Uh, tress away got blown up, didn't he? After a whiff from Senate a couple of weeks ago. But he was instrumental on some of Bill's runs as well. So again, getting baits back. obviously kind of going into that game a bit worried about Deebo, but he played, it seems that we are getting a bit healthier with Cosmi on the brink as well. Does that give you, um, for optimism, especially on the offensive side.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 12:11

Yeah, definitely. And as you say, weather, the storm is, is the correct term. Um, and what a difference a week makes. Right. Um, everyone says the NFL is a week to week league and so many things change so quickly, um, and how positive we are versus this time a week ago or, or 10 days ago. Um, but yeah, no, no, really positive. And I think, um, we're getting healthier. Um, injury report yesterday, the only, I think it's still just McClaren, right? Um, maybe no brown as well, but as you say, if Cosby's back soon, then you've got baits and sin it blocking like that as well with the run game already. Um, firing on, on all cylinders when, when we commit to it. Um, there's few that would be able to stop us. And I think you had some stats, didn't you, on that lean terms of how our run game is actually fair enough. League wide.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 13:07

Yeah, I mean, in terms of like yas per carry, we're right at the top. There's obviously different me metrics in terms of how you measure, um, run game effectiveness, but we are, we're right in the top five and in terms of like yas per carry, we're right there. So that does give me a lot of optimism coming into this game. Especially the Bears Defense don't look the most capable unit, and they've been in that bottom five area against a run. Now, the caveat for this is it's really early in the season still. The games are ticking along, but we don't have a huge sample size. So if one of the games you've played. a blowout loss like they had against Detroit, then that's gonna skew the stats a little bit. So they've only played four games compared to our five. And Detroit obviously destroyed them. Didn't know who may put up 50. So that could skew some of the stats. But their run game on D is not a strength, let's put it that way. And ours is clicking into gear for sure. So that could be an area we look to exploit. I think not only did Bill need that game, but needed that game as well. Like there's been times where we've criticized him for being a bit past happy, but seeing the success we had on Sunday, it just feels to me he can't really go away from it if it's working right. So that should be great for

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 14:26

Yeah. And uh, as I said to Josh, the light, you can't put the light. Him back in the bottle now, and I, and I wonder if he pops up on the injury port like 10 days ago. Right. Or heading into Falcons or one of the other games. So it makes me wonder if they were just kind of being careful with him in terms of how they're splitting it with, uh, Rodriguez and McNichols. But now he has to be getting the chunk, you know, we still wanna see Rodriguez and McNichols mixed in as well to keep the defense on their toes. But yeah, I mean, as I said to Josh, you know, if he continues like that, you could have an offensive rookie of the year on your hands as well. But also I just wanna quickly touch on, I dunno if we'll get to this, I'll touch on it now. There's gonna be a lot of motivation from the, um, there's the Ben Johnson thing. No one really knows what happened with that, or someone does, but he's gonna be extremely motivated. Um. Caleb Williams and the rest of the team. We motivated whoever was on the team last year, if they played in last year's game. Um, I've heard Montez sweat even, um, chirping up. Um, although I don't recall him doing anything against us last year. So there's a lot of storylines here to watch. And, you know, beyond that, the whole, um, Caleb Williams, Jane Daniels, um, well it's not a debate to me, but that's gonna rear its head again in, in the build up to this.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 15:42

Yeah, actually that was, is more storylines than you even remember, isn't there? Because. Ben Johnson. There was that when we had, it got down to the final feud in there in terms of candidates, and there was a story that he basically his flight or got, didn't take his flight for the interview the last second when we were preparing to welcome him to, to, to have that interview. And then, let's face it, we potentially stopped him getting a ring last year as well, didn't we? His, his last game in Detroit was obviously. Us going into Motown and sending us into the NFC championship game and sent the lions pack in, and then, yeah, look, they, they're making it. I, I said last night actually on a, a replied to a tweet, it's a bit of a social media rivalry. This one, uh, since the, the picks, uh, that they've got PTSD, haven't they, from the whole MAHOME thing, they could have taken him back in the day and they've not had a callback since. I think they've made some very suspect moves over that. Period. Um, and since their GM has come in Ryan polls, so we will see where, where it's at, they look a better team this year. I think Caleb has clearly got a ton of talent. I'm not sure if he is, uh, got the head and his shoulders that Jaylen Daniels has. And I don't even think it's a debate at this point, even them as a, a franchise, as an organization, they didn't, they didn't even apparently invite Daniels into the building did they? To, to talk him and stuff. So there's all these. Storylines rumbling in the background. And I do wonder though, maybe this plays into our hands, is it just gonna be another game for Mr. Cool Jaden Daniels just another week. But are they making this such a huge thing on their side? Are they gonna try too hard almost and come out and try and force this a little bit? That's what I'm wondering.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 17:31

Yeah, quite possibly. Um, they might be distracted by it all. Um, whereas we'll be treating it as another game. They aren't really a rival to us. They're obviously just, you know, obviously what happened, uh, last year was gonna stick with them. But yeah, I, I don't think that really affect us. Um, so yeah, could play into our hands or could go the other way. Let's see.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 17:51

A hundred percent. And yeah, looking at the, the latest, we're getting healthier, as we mentioned. It is gonna be really interesting on Terry, isn't it? Should we just touch on that? So he didn't practice yesterday, but bear in mind we have the extra day, so they're not gonna rush that back, nor should they rush it back if he's not ready. He is not ready. I'm not writing him off though. Um, I think that's a bit of a coin flip, but that's just a gut feeling. We don't really know, do we? But there seems to be a few on the ground in Ashburn indicating that it's pretty close, so that, that would be great to have him back on the field.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 18:27

Yeah, and I think I've got, Finley might play, I think this would be what his third game. Um, otherwise they might have put on ir. Right. If they didn't think he might be ready for this one, perhaps.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 18:40

20, would it be two weeks or 21 days since the injury? It'll be like 21 days, I think, since

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 18:44

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 18:45

yeah, it'll be his, if he missed it, it'd be his third game. So yeah. It'll be like three weeks ago. He, he kind of.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 18:52

But as you say, yeah, extra day. I think anyone that's risky on the Wednesday, they're not really gonna put out there. So means you have some practice on a Saturday, right? For the Monday nights. So, yeah. Let, let's, let's see. They can take this right up to it.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 19:06

Yeah, a hundred percent. And just on the injuries and how we've dealt with them, credit to the staff, it must have been very, very tempting to put Jade and Daniels in against the Falcons.'cause looking at how he was playing. Second half in particular on Sunday. He must have been fairly close a week before. There's no doubt to me if that was a a pivotal late season game or a playoff game, he'd have probably gone. But I give them all the credit in the world. You do not wanna risk in late September, early October causing a minor issue for a few weeks into a season long issue. So we've done the right thing. Yeah, we didn't beat Atlanta, but looking at, at Jaden a couple of days ago. Credit to them. So that was awesome to see him. He didn't look impacted to me at all. So that was, that was great.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 19:53

Yeah, good shout. Um, Lee, I am itching to hear your look back, my favorite part of the week. What have you got for us this week?

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 20:05

Yeah. So we'll break, we'll break up our talk about Monday night and take a, a bit of a deep dive back into the history books again from my look back before we get back to. of, uh, the matrix from James and that then to finish out on enough predictions. So for the look back, maybe this one will be a slightly quicker look back than the in depth one San Diego last, last week, but I'm going back to the eighties again, James, back to 1989, so don't worry. Not 1983. This week, 1989. This is that in-between era from our Super Bowl victories. So not a season. You're gonna hear talked about a ton. Uh, we were obviously the Super Bowl champs in 87 and 91, so a lot of them same players were still on the roster from both, both Super Bowl winning, uh, rosters and yeah, this was a, a game where the Bears came in. It was a Thanksgiving weekend game and the Bears came in, they were six and five. We were five and six, so both around 500 later in the season, and this was an important game if we had any shot of making the playoffs. So it was Joe Gibbs versus the very famous Dictor as well. On the other side, you always see Bears fans dressed up as. Coach sent you. Um, it's a bit weird, but anyway, uh, and yeah, so RFK stadium has to be a home game. As we know. This was another high scoring game. the over under was only 39 and a half in this, but trust me, it went way, way over. So, uh, we get off with a early touchdown to Don Warren. Now I want to, I wanna talk about. Don Warren, he was very much a blocking tight end. He was in the mold of baits, didn't catch the ball much, but he catches a four yard touchdown from Mark Rip.

22:06

It's usually a blocker, a tight end number, 85 up in the right hand side. He out roll. No one covers Donnie Warren. Seven.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 22:20

Yes. This is my first game with a Mark Rip era. What a callback. Uh, so he gets us up and running, then Clark, a five yard pass from Mark Griffin. We get up to 14 seven in the first half. Thomas Sanders from the Bears 96 yard kickoff return. So some special teams issues in this one. Uh, pulls the bears back and then the bears actually come all the way back to 1414, um, as we go into the half. So tied up in the half, big second half on the, on the cards to say we need to, we need a win to keep our playoff aspirations alive. And then some are just, you know, the favorite players of this era. Monk of Famer, less than a month away now from having his jersey retired. I'm absolutely gutted. I won't be in the stadium for that one. One of my favorite players to ever see on tape back in the day. So, so, so happy that he's gonna have that jersey retired on the same day that we're gonna be wearing our throwback. So that's gonna be an exciting evening against Seattle, I believe it is in a. Three weeks time, he catches an 18 yard touchdown from Mark Rip and then another Arc Monk touchdown from Rip. And

23:44

Touchdown. 18 yard strike ripping the.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 24:02

And we just pull away. Ernest Byner, who was our running back, he was also the running back for our Super Bowl winning team. A couple of years later, he used to play for the Browns, but great running back. finishes it off. We blow out the Bears 38 14. stomp all over them on the way to a victory. We then win out the rest of the season 10 and six. it's not enough for the playoffs 10 win. Team does not make the playoffs. Giants win the division and the Eagles get 11 wins and 10 wins is not enough for Wild Card James.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 24:40

Well, that's most disappointing. I thought we were leading to something there. I don't, I can't remember. I dunno the history of the 1989 season. So I was on Tinder hooks there, um, and joined some of the names you're rolling out there. Also, I'm aware of the likes of Art Monk and Ian Don Warren, um, just sounds like the perfect name for a blocking tight end.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 24:57

Yeah, well he played for us from 1979 to 1992, so

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 25:03

Wow.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 25:03

of the few Redskins to have all three Super Bowl rings under Gibbs. Um, monk being one of the others, Marty Coleman. I think Jeff Bostic. there's a few of them that, um, that won all three championships under Gibbs. but yeah, that, I mean, yeah, so he was played what career? But he was a, just some, he was a block in tight end outta San Diego State. Um, he caught the odd ball and got us off the, off the mark in this one. But yeah, two historic franchises, of course. So plenty of history between these two. Um, at

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 25:40

Now.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 25:41

in particular, so we are slightly up in the series 28, 25 and one.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 25:46

Nice. Now I, I am most disappointed. I enjoyed that, although I'm most disappointed there was another game you could have picked.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 25:55

Well, I'm teeing you up for the honorable mention James,

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 25:58

Ah,

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 25:58

and because. We talked about this game in some detail

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 26:02

we did actually, yeah.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 26:04

the pilot show, so that did actually skew my decision. But the Honorable mention, 2013, James, take it away.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 26:13

Yeah, that was a, I can't remember the score now. Was it 45, 41, something like that? It was, um. And that, that was my first ever game. So, um, I thought Lee might have gone there, but as you said, we did touch on it a fair bit in our early episodes. Um, that was my first most experience at an NFL game and a Redskins game. So that was an absolute back and forth, um, game. And a great way to start my NFL fandom. Um, as Lee described it, um, I was just a football fan there, soccer fan. So he described it as, what's happening here is basically like a five, four, uh, game. So yeah, strong memories of this fixture. So hoping for similar again.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 26:53

Yeah, 45 41 is correct. A memorable game from an unmemorable season. It went downhill quite quickly after then

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 27:01

Yeah.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 27:01

Shanahan, RG three, the whole shebang before Gruden came in. Maybe one of our last wins'cause we only got a few of them. So yeah,

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 27:09

A Roy, a Roy Helu hat trick in that one. I love to mention that. It'd be great to have him on the show at some point actually, so we can talk about that.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 27:16

And

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 27:16

Dunno what he's up to.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 27:17

and our safety, just blasting people in the end zone felt like kind of when

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 27:21

Merriwether. Yeah,

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 27:22

there. Yes.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 27:23

that's my guy. That was my guy. After that, the.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 27:26

Interesting game. That one. But yeah, obviously a, a massive rivalry. Back in the day, in the eighties, there was some key playoff games. They were the first team to beat us at RFK in the playoffs ever in 1984. Um, after our very successful years before that. So yeah, there's been some huge games. Obviously they were the very famous eighties team with their 85 defense, et cetera, et cetera. So two top franchises that completely lost their way. is very firm back, whether Chicago is Back is yet to be seen. But really looking forward to this matchup Monday. It's certainly shaping him up to be, uh, a really great one on Monday night Football. Uh, so before we get into the matrix, James, would this be a good time to hear from our co-host Josh on his stat line?

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 28:16

Let's do it. Roll the tape.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 28:18

Here we go. Here's Josh with his stat line. What stat line leads to a Washington victory on Monday night? Take it away, Josh.

28:27

Hey fellas, sorry not to be to join you for the Bears preview pod. I'm either gonna be in a Welsh pub or up a Welsh mountain or on a Welsh beach the next few days. Well earned break. Um, so I am looking forward to hearing your look back, Lee and James, your matchup matrix for this Monday night Football tilts against the bears. Um, and I'm dialing in my stat line prediction. Ongoing this time for time of possession. An interesting one. There's a bit of wish fulfillment in this one for me. So, uh, bear with me. The Bears have won two games this season. The last two games side. Oh and two, they're now two and two. Um, in their last two victories, they have controlled the clock. And I think that's been a fairly big part of why they've been able to win those games, which has been, uh, to reduce the opportunities for the other team basically. And the other offense not being on the field as much, especially against. Uh, they've had a 33 10 and 32 58 in terms of time possession in those two games. On the other hand, we haven't won the time of possession battle once this season in a victory in our three wins. Um, we've had a. Considerable less time than the opposition, uh, which does talk a bit to our big playability on offense, I'm sure. But what I would like to see this week is the team really control the ball, keep Caleb off the field and limit the opportunities for the bears offense, uh, by sustaining long, uh, drives, chunk plays. Crosky Merrit leaning on the run, Jaden in the run game, and basically gradually blowing the bears out for attrition and matriculating the ball down the field. So I think our commanders wins Stat line is if we win the time of possession battle, so over 30 minutes for us wins the game.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 30:25

All right. Thank you, Josh. I love that one. Time of possession is a pretty key stat in the NFL and weirdly our run game that's been cooking here over the last few weeks. We are losing the time of possession, so it looks like Chicago when they're victorious. been winning that battle. So I like that one, James. I think that could be pretty key.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 30:51

Yeah, definitely. And I think that probably lead nicely into my, um, matrix. Actually, I think yeah, we, we've touched on it. They, they're struggling to stop the run and, um, you know, if we. If we don't keep them off the field, it could end up being a really high scoring difficult game. Um, with the run game the way it is, um, looking unstoppable against a, a team that probably isn't feeling confident stopping the run, why would you go away from it? Um, so yeah, I bet they'll have a lot up their sleeve for this one and mixed in some more runs for Daniels this week'cause he gets a bit healthier. So, um, I do fully expect them to lean on that, but. You know, the benefit is we know if it does get into a kind of a shoot outy type situation, we've got no one better, um, to do that. And we do have the offense to do that as well.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 31:47

Yeah, a hundred percent. A hundred percent.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 31:50

And yeah. Yeah. And also like just keeping Caleb off the field, like he'll be really desperate to get on the field a lot. Um. You know, coming off the by, he's looking to prove himself to show, try and show he's better than Jayden. Everything that happened last year, keeping him off the field as well. Frustrate him, I'm sure. So he can't get into a rhythm off the by.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 32:09

So the matrix is the run game for James,

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 32:12

It's not, it's not, it's not. I, I, I kept it. I nearly went there, but I just,

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 32:18

Okay.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 32:18

of stop myself.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 32:19

Okay. Okay. So we, going back to Josh then. I, I believe that he, he's really to point this out because it has shown that our defense is not getting off the field. It's really hard to be that good in the wrong game, win football games and lose the time position. But also that's a weird stat line. So I do like that one and it shows that we need to massively improve on third down, but we still need to improve on third down on offense as well. To be fair, we put ourselves in a fee. situations. Just before we get to the Matrix, I can literally hear Josh shouting at me. Now, not, not literally, but in my head I can. I obviously miss Joe Jacoby that won, you know, the free Super Bowls with Washington and he keeps, he keeps getting snubbed for the Hall of Fame. So he is certainly not getting snubbed by me. And this show, the legend, that is Joe Jacoby. So that's why to get out there and that is no one telling me that I missed that. That is back of my head. So.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 33:15

Well done, Lee. No, there wasn't anyone in his ear. Um, there was no producer, uh, for this show doing that. So well done, Lee, for not forgetting. Forgetting that.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 33:24

Yeah. And he needs to be a hall of Famer, won't they? But can we lead into the matrix now then? James? Are we ready?

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 33:30

Go for it, Josh. Drop my music. Okay, welcome to the matchup Matrix. Um, this one, this week's one's a little different. Um, usually it's positional against positional. This week I've kind of hinted at sort of game to expect from this. The matchup I'm looking at is Jaden Daniels versus Caleb Williams. Who is gonna have the better game? Um. Whoever has the better game in this one is gonna win this game. I think it's gonna come down to the two quarterbacks. The defenses aren't great. I do think it's gonna be a shootout. Um, I won't go away too much before I get into my, um. Prediction. Um, but yeah, not as detailed from these kind of stats wise. This is just a pure, whichever quarterback plays better than this game is gonna win this game. I have no doubt about that, and I have no doubt we have the better quarterback. So there's a little, uh, spoiler, um, to my prediction on this one as well. So fairly simple one, but I think that is gonna be how, what it comes down to in this game.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 34:40

It. And that is James Barker from ESPN building up the game. I mean, this is the primetime battle that everyone's sitting in for though, isn't it? This is why it's Monday

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 34:49

Yeah, let's, let's not beat around the bush. Let's not fuck around here. And, and that's why I said about Josh leaning into the run game and keeping him off the field. Um, if he's off the field and if James's on the field want him, we're gonna win the game. And, uh, yeah, definitely, definitely. That's what everyone's gonna be talking about. And, you know, I didn't want to get too quirky with it. Let's, let's say what, what it is.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 35:12

Yeah, I can just hear that. Monday night football music in my ear now, you know, that is it. It's his pick one versus pick two, a Hail Mary to win the game last year. It's interesting because when the game finishes like that, you don't remember the game, do you? And it was actually one of our worst performances. Right. We'd put up. 12 points or something

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 35:31

Yeah.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 35:31

And it

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 35:31

Yeah.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 35:32

It's a weird game, say, um, but he had a

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 35:35

He had that injury. Yeah.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 35:36

Yeah. It

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 35:37

Hmm.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 35:37

that it was worse than, um, worse than it was, we were told at the time, but it was a pain tolerance, a pain tolerance thing. But yeah, I, I met Caleb didn't really look very good either. They were both, you know, Ricky's fairly early in, but Jayden already had some great games by then. But yeah, c Caleb Williams line was, was not up to much at that point in last season as well. So. gonna see the development of both, and that's where we're at. It's given me a lot of confidence after being there last week to see him in the flesh delivering those, those passes and spot in the spotting the soft spots in the zone and still looking healthy with his legs. So if it's coming to the quarterback, matchup a little spoiler for me as well. That would make me pretty confident. We're getting near to that time. Um, but before we do, before we do the predictions, James, I wanna hear a little bit about, about. This trip, um, because this is, this is new to me. You know, it's not, it's not, it's not a territory I've ventured in. So what is your, what is your schedule? Are you going to a sporting event out there? Did you send

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 36:44

Yeah,

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 36:45

months ago? Uh.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 36:45

there's a couple of things in this. So I'm flying out tomorrow to, uh, Shanghai. Um, I'm catching a cruise on the Monday, so I have a couple of days in Shanghai. Um, itinerary's kind of all built around for us, so you know, we've got a little bit of free time. But yes, on the Sunday we are at the. Tennis final, the Rolex Shanghai Masters I think it's called. Um, so yeah, we've been VIP hospitality. Now I'm not a big tennis guy. I know you are quite a big tennis guy, Lee, but, um, I do enjoy, um, the big ones, you know? Um, so I'm sure that'd be a pretty cool experience, um, Sunday afternoon, but I think that'd be very early hours, uh, your time. But, um, yeah, men's tennis final, I think the men's. Double file as well on Sunday before we nip on a, a four night cruise. I believe it is. Uh, we have a stop in Okinawa, uh, in Japan. Um, but as I touched on earlier in the show, I was concerned'cause WhatsApp is very much banned out there as is. Gmail and ESPN apps for fantasy among, among many things. So I have purchased A VPN and there will be some, uh, good ship wifi, I'm reliably told, which kind of unlocks everything. So I should be able to follow the game. I should be able to keep in touch with you guys and I should be able to adjust my fantasy team and put any waiver claims, uh, that's required as well.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 38:09

Let's just hope they let you in, mate. As a big Western podcaster, but you No, you'll be fine. You'll be fine. That sounds a great trip. Always nice to be, uh, wind and dined on the, on the work work jaunts. That's awesome. Yeah. For me, in Chicago. I'm a little bit nervous for this one. We've got two big games coming up here, haven't we? And can you imagine having to walk into the office on Tuesday morning after a loss? I don't want that to happen. So yeah, I'm getting, I'm getting a little bit up for this game now. Um, we'd really like to, to shut them up because they will be a little bit insufferable. I feel if, if they beat us and they'll try and prove that it's. They're making the right quarterback decision, which has pretty much been debunked at this point already. I would say so. game. Um, I'm gonna say it's a big two week stretch for the defense because alluded to earlier in the show, we've got two capable passing offenses, right, with, you know, pickings and dak great in, in Dallas as well. Not to get too far ahead, but. We said, didn't we? That the concerns weren't completely alleviated on Sunday. So massive, massive couple weeks for Joe Witt Jr. Uh, before we get into our predictions, I know you said you're fairly confident of getting at these three wins in the next five. Do you feel like after that Dallas game having faced these two upcoming offenses, we're gonna know even more about how the season's gonna unfold and because our coverage let's face, it's gonna be tested, isn't it?

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 39:39

Yeah, I think so. Um, but a lot can happen as we've learned, like even like the past week or two. There's been some ups and downs about how we felt in the season. So not getting ahead of myself yet, but yeah, I'd like to think coming outta those next two games against, you know, a couple of decent enough teams, um. We should know where, where we stand against to even better teams. But as you know, a lot of things can happen between now and then. But I mean, if we come through the next two games with some nice wins against a couple of feisty teams, um, yeah, I think we'll certainly know a lot more about ourselves. I think, uh, the winds against the Raiders and the Giants didn't really tell us anything. Um. The charges. One's a huge win. Whilst we know there's some slight caveat to that'cause of the awful offensive line, although we have our own injuries, let's not forget, I think people are forgetting to talk about that when people are looking back on that game. On podcasts I've listened to in terms of, not local media, but national media, just talking about the injury woes and not refocusing on what we'd done in that game and some of the injuries we've had to overcome. So yeah, I think just these next two games will definitely tell us a lot more.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 40:48

Yeah, I agree. I think the NFL is a massive head fake through the first few weeks. And even when you get a month in, you can start saying, okay, you can start looking and you can see who's gonna be the decent teams. He's gonna at least be the awful teams, but there's that bunch in the middle and you dunno who's gonna separate. So we've got a great chance to do so the next few weeks. So that probably leads us into a good place into our predictions. I was gonna start, but we don't have Josh's prediction. He's gonna edit his in. So spoiler alert, we're not sure where Josh is gonna go, although listening to his stat line. I'm fairly confident. I've

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 41:23

Hmm.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 41:24

but James, why don't you start us off then with the predictions.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 41:27

Yeah, happy to. As I've alluded to, I think it's actually gonna be a high scoring shootout type of game. Reminiscent of my very first, um. Kins game. I'm not gonna quite match the score'cause I think 45, 41 is a little bit crazy, but I'm going 37 to 34. Heartbreak for the bears. Late in the fourth quarter again, Jaden, um, with a game winning drive. Um, I think it's gonna be a really difficult game coming off the buy. I think they've got some really nice rookies that haven't really been involved yet, but I think they might be coming out of the buy such as, uh, Luther Bird who showed glimpses against Dallas and, uh, Colson Loveland, the highly touted tight end there as well. Um, Kyler Gordon, their top cornerback practice yesterday, he's been out all season actually so far. It's so interesting to see how that goes, but. I don't think both defenses are good enough to stop these two. What I think are explosive offenses, the bears have shown they can be explosive, not consistently, but they can be. And we've obviously shown'em we can be as well. And it's gonna be two quarterbacks going toe to toe, 37 34 to the Washington Redskins commanders.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 42:46

I like it. It must be my look backs throwing you into the uh.

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 42:50

Well, uh, just that first game we went to, we've spoken about a lot, was, uh, we are very much under a different name then, so.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 42:55

Yeah, I actually saw when I googled the score for that, on the side here, there's a YouTube video that comes up. RG Frees last Elite Performance, 45 41. Uh, yeah. So James, I'm with you on it. In terms of how the game's gonna look. I've got a very similar game script in my head. I just can't see us not scoring 30 points. To be honest looking, our offense, even a Mariota led team in Atlanta that could bring pressure got 27, didn't they? So I just can't see us not scoring more than 30 points. I think they're absolutely gonna have their plays as well. I think Williams plays really well in this. I, and I think the likes of Cold Comet causes all kinds of travel. They've got some good receivers, haven't they? Roam and dza. Um. DJ Moore hasn't got a ton of looks this year, but maybe he's waiting for a bit of a breakout game, so

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 43:49

He's done it again. He'd done it against us last year. Right. He just destroyed us. Yeah.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 43:53

yeah, yeah. Exactly. So it is just, they're gonna have their plays. I'm not even gonna, I don't envisage a game at all where our defense is gonna keep them in, in check. So I'm kind of right there with you. Um, we've played them a lot at FedEx and Northwest Stadium over the last few years. It's almost. Three years in a row. I think it's kind of strange, but, um, home game for us. We've got a really good record at home, haven't we? Our last loss might have been that Pittsburgh game last November, to be honest. So look, we're favorites at home. I saw what that offense could do on Sunday. I'm not picking against this, so I'm with James. I'm picking six wins right now to start the season, which. Okay. There might be some home of bias in that, but I do think we're gonna win this game. It's just the evidence I saw on Sunday and this offense, so I'm predicting a very similar game script. I'm going, uh, 34 27 Washington Commanders. Get it done. In a really good game. I think the Bears at times will probably be up on the scoreboard. It'll be a bit back and forth, but I just think Jaden Daniels is gonna be the star of the show on Monday night. It's set up for him. Under the lights. Should be a great scene over there in Landover, Maryland. So, James and I have us four and two going into Texas. That's exciting. Is it not?

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 45:14

It definitely is. Um, glad we're on the same page'cause we were sort of on the same page for the last game of our prediction, so maybe we're aligned and we're, we've got a crystal ball and we're, we're ahead of the game Lee.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 45:25

let's hope so. I, I think this is a game that could go either way. I'm not, this is a game we could lose if, if things go wrong. A couple of turnovers say, I do think the bears are very much in it, but I'll predict this to win. Let's hope Josh has done the same. Um, time is ticking here. I've gotta get a train

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 45:42

Hmm.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 45:42

work. James has probably gotta go and pack for his work trip, so we should probably let Josh. Outro the show with his prediction. James, have a great time over in China and Japan. I'll be seeing you in under a month in Madrid of

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 46:00

Hmm.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 46:01

we'll be back talk Commanders football before then. I'm sure you probably won't be making the post game

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 46:09

No, I

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 46:10

but

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 46:11

I might, I might be able to get some voice notes if everything's working accordingly.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 46:15

Would he be around for the Dallas preview or would it be maybe the

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 46:18

No,

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 46:19

from Dallas?

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 46:19

I'll be post-game Dallas. I'll be fully,

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 46:22

Okay,

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 46:23

back, fully back.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 46:24

so thanks for joining us today then. That was crucial to get you on. Didn't want too much of a hiatus this stage of the season, so appreciate you making time before your trip. Um, so James, is, do you wanna give us a spoiler for Dallas then, or should? No, let's, let's see if those post

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 46:38

Oh, oh yeah.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 46:39

Let's do

james_1_10-09-2025_130644: 46:39

Yeah.

ledders_1_10-09-2025_070645: 46:39

notes work. Let's, let's, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves, let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. Um, but yeah, the four and two commanders then from me and James, uh, James, have a great time. Josh is gonna lead us out, but hail.