Casual Chaos

Kentucky Derby and Oaks Preview - Knicks Embarass the Hawks - Avalanche and Thunder Dominate & More

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It’s a packed episode as we kick things off with a full Kentucky Derby and Oaks preview, breaking down the top horses, storylines, and picks heading into one of the biggest weekends in racing.

Then we head to the NBA, where the Knicks absolutely embarrass the Hawks — we dive into what went wrong for Atlanta and what this performance says about New York moving forward.

On the ice and the hardwood, it’s all about dominance as the Avalanche and Thunder continue to roll. Are these teams on a collision course with championships, or is there still someone that can slow them down?

Big races, blowouts, and dominant runs — plus more — in another loaded episode. Tune in! 🎙️🏇🏀🏒🔥

Follow us on all socials @CasualChaosLive

SPEAKER_04

Oh, yes, we are back. The Casual Chaos Podcast. I'm your host, Jay Ash, joined as always by Jeff and Bubba. What's going on, fellas?

SPEAKER_00

Not much. And not, hey, it's not as always. Bubba wasn't with us last week, so welcome back, Bubba. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

SPEAKER_01

Glad to be back.

SPEAKER_04

I disagree. Always right here in spirit. He might not be on camera, but he's never outside of the heart, the mind, or the spirit.

SPEAKER_00

There you go.

SPEAKER_04

He embodies humanix. That's what I say. So Bubba, welcome back. You know, how how was your uh your week's vacation?

SPEAKER_01

It was good, but I'm I definitely missed you guys. I'm uh uh excited to be back. We got some uh some horses to talk about, we got some NFL draft to to discuss and Super Bowl odds. I'm I'm pretty pumped to be back. It's a good week to be back.

SPEAKER_04

Horses, horses, horses. It's so exciting. It is so exciting. If you guys live under a rock or don't get MBC, it is the Derby weekend, which means starting tomorrow, it's just 12 hours a day of ponies on the track, announcers, some know what they're talking about, a lot don't. A lot of fanfare, a lot of fashion. It's gonna be lovely. Gotta know a bunch of people out there this year and wish I was there, but you know, I wouldn't trade being here tonight with you guys for anything. With that, it is 8 08 p.m. on a Thursday. We've got a basketball game on, if you want to call it that. We have another one about to start. Um, do we want to talk about the Knicks being up 40 real quick? No.

SPEAKER_00

I mean, you just did, basically. So yeah. Not much else to say.

SPEAKER_04

That's right. We got a we got a good show for you guys tonight. We're looking forward to talking horses and covering a little bit of the draft that we talked about last week, talking about hoops um as well, some hockey playoffs, lightning, uh, you know, doing lightning things right now. Hopefully we'll get we'll get an update from Tyler on what's going on there. But before we get going, follow us on all the socials at Casual Chaos Live, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, um, X. Find us everywhere. Send your plays in via DM on IG or also on the Discord. And with that, I think we can throw it right to Talking Tickets with producer Tyler. Producer Tyler, take it away.

SPEAKER_02

Yes, sir. And um, as always, as Jeff said, it is brought to you by Talking Tickets is brought to you by LastRep. Look, we all know the grind isn't just a buzzword, whether you're hitting the gym or sweating a parlay until the West Coast games wrap up, your body takes the hit. That's why we've partnered with LastRep, the world's first athletic recovery cocktail. It's a crisp, refreshing, hemp-derived THC athletic recovery beverage designed specifically to help you dial it back, recover, and get ready for the next round. No hangover, no bloke, just a perfect way to settle in while we go over today's action. Whether you're crushing workouts, crushing parlays, or just crushing life, last reps got your back. Recovery shouldn't be complicated. It should be convenient, effective, and tasty and good. This new and exciting filter is now available at selected locations across Tampa Bay. However, here's the best part. As a casual chaos listener, you can grab yours with 20% off using pro promo code chaos at C H A O S at Try Lastrep.com. Again, that's chaos for 20% off. And again, we have a new flavor from Last Rep. Uh they have the the original, the OG line, um, and now they have the orange flavor. So get out there, get that. Is that coming in? 5 and 10 milligrams, I believe. Um 5 and 10? It is beautiful, beautiful. Get them, guys. They are fantastic. Um they get you feeling right. Um pass on this weekend watching the Derby. It'll be fantastic. And now we can get into some tickets. Um unfortunately, we're gonna have a few tickets all centered around Tampa Bay Lightning and Misery. Um, we got one book ant here. Um I was when I originally saw this, I was I thought this was I read it on my phone, and I thought it was plus one and a half, so I was like, oh beautiful, he hit. Umpe, my eyes deceived me. That's why I'm getting LASIK tomorrow. Uh Lightning minus one and a half. Uh unfortunately didn't come home there for one book ant. Um this one was mine. Lightning to win, brain and point to have over two and a half shots, and engage Gonzalez to score a goal. All those did not come in. Every single one of them, over three. Of course, the Flyers got the job done for the team that I don't give a shit about. Um that's the way it goes. Another L betting on the Lightning right now. Had Rain Man here. Rain Man had Aaron Radish to have over three shots on goal. He had uh seven, I believe. So that was an easy cash. Um but unfortunately, this is the first game in the series that Rainon Hagel doesn't find his way on the stats sheet. Um gold, no assist for Brainon Hagel. So unfortunately for Rain Man, um first game of the series where Hagel doesn't look like Superman. No soup for you, no soup for you, and then no soup for Mr. Nikita Kucharoff, who hasn't found the soup bowl has been dry in the past three seasons for Nikita Kucharov, especially in the gold apartment. Um I believe he put this in live right at the start of the third period. Rainman did, and unfortunately Nikita did not do it for him. He did have eight shots on goal, which is kind of crazy, but nope, I didn't get it done before. All four of those lightning bets down the tubes. Luckily, we don't leave the middle of this week without a winner. We have our very own Jay Ash with Cam Young as a first round leader in the golf Cadillac Championship played at Trump Dural this week. Cam Young, $10 bet. Pays out a nice smooth 205. Put that in the pocket, Jay. Get you to the Kentucky Derby. Cam Young helping you out. The blue monster dominating. Yes, sir. And as always, that's our talking ticket segment. Thank you to LastRep. Again, code chaos at try last rep.com, guys. Let's get into the stu the the the nooks and crannies of this thing, guys.

SPEAKER_00

Well, let me uh before we jump into the meat, let me just uh follow up on something we talked about last week. So if you remember last week we looked at the uh Super Bowl odds, uh specifically the top ten teams, um and uh I said that we would go back and take a look today and see if maybe they changed after the draft. Um I'll uh refresh everybody's memory from last week. Uh the Rams were the favorite at plus 750. Um Seahawks were plus 900, Bills and Ravens plus 1,000. Um that Ravens number still doesn't make sense to me. Uh Chiefs at plus 1500, and then the Eagles, Niners, Chargers, Lions, and Packers were at plus 1600. Um we don't have to spend a lot of time on this because basically nothing changed other than the Seahawks going from plus 900 to plus 950. So everything else in that top 10 stayed exactly the same. Um, at least, you know, at least as a consensus basis uh on the uh uh action network. Um uh yesterday when I looked at it, the Rams uh were at plus 775, so they had moved slightly, but uh today they were back at plus 750. So not not surprising, I guess.

SPEAKER_04

Not surprising at all. It wasn't a deep draft, and it wasn't a blockbuster draft. I mean when he got outside of the top 12 picks. So not shocking. There was some you know, a couple moves on draft day. There's some pending stuff with AJ Brown, obviously, and I'm sure there'll be one or two other moves, but I don't think anything's gonna really start moving until trading camp or some whispers of injuries or something comes out.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, that Brown trade, if it does happen, um, you know, let's say he goes from Philly to New England. I mean, that will move numb those two numbers, but uh, like you said, that's a couple months away, probably. So um all right. Um let's uh put a bow on the draft. Obviously, uh it was going on as we were uh recording last week, so we got to talk about it a little bit, but um uh nothing really that shocking, right? I mean, obviously Mendoza went number one, everybody expected that. Um love going three was, I don't know, maybe a maybe a little surprising to some people, although I had seen it all over the place uh in the you know a couple days before the draft. So um I I you know we're we'll talk about the the teams that we all like, uh, see it see if you guys like the draft of the uh Cowboys and the Bucs. But before we get there, did anything catch your eye? I mean, in the draft, any anything surprised you? Anything that you liked, anything you hated?

SPEAKER_01

I was shocked that the Rams took the quarterback, backup quarterback in the first round. That was the most shocking thing to me at 13. Um, I guess maybe Stafford's getting old, but I just don't I don't know. It didn't make sense to me at the time. Um it still doesn't.

SPEAKER_02

I guess it's worth the risk, maybe in your if you're them, if if you don't feel like you're you could get anything in that position that's better than what you got, and you maybe get the quarterback of your future. He doesn't have to play right now. I do and I like that for him. Like he doesn't have to play right now. You get to learn from one of the best quarterbacks in in his kind of generation. Um doesn't have to play. So you can learn for two, three years, like uh you know Rogers did with Favre, not saying you know, Stafford. I would say he's probably on that same level. Um, and then obviously Rogers did for um Jordan Love. So I I think it benefits these quarterbacks to not have to jump into it. Whether or not this kid will ever be good, I don't know. But definitely seemed like he was probably gonna be available in the second or third.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, you know, these these quarterbacks he only started one game, one season in college, and usually that's been a bad recipe for quarterbacks, but a lot of time those guys are thrown to the wolves in their first year, so you're right. I mean, the fact that he's gonna be, you know, assuming Stafford stays healthy, you know, you assume he's gonna sit the whole first year, his whole rookie year. So um we'll see if that you know helps him out or not. But uh yeah, it's it was an interesting pick, Bubba. You're right.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, like obviously could have traded back and still got him and picked something else up. I I did have one shocking thing, Jeff, and it wasn't on draft that it was afterwards in the recap, and I just double checked to refresh my memory. 32 teams in the league. Not a single team got a draft grade lower than a B.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04

So on what's supposedly uh be a historically mediocre draft and a very light top top heavy draft, so everybody just nailed it. Everybody just killed it. So we should have 32 playoff teams this year. Should be an unbelievable um season, looks like.

SPEAKER_00

And who who's I'm just curious what grading who you who graded ESPN? Who are you looking at?

SPEAKER_04

NFL Network.

SPEAKER_00

Okay, all right.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, I feel like I feel like I mean everyone, I mean, you guys can speak with your teams and involved and all that, but like I do feel like everyone like they didn't I mean I guess some teams might it have reached a little bit, but like I think they just took like best player on the board almost because it wasn't a deep draft, so you just take the best guy that's out there. So of course, I mean, like in their eyes that are doing the drafting, they're gonna be like, Oh yeah, they did great. They got the best it was a weird year in that way. I do feel like everyone kind of did what they should have done.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I think that I think I mean, and again, we'll we won't know obviously for you know two or three years, but I mean I think the the word on the draft was that it uh depth-wise it was pretty good, but high-end talent-wise, it was obviously lacking, you know. So um, yeah, like you guys said, in a a weird draft, um, not one you see very often. So yeah.

SPEAKER_01

I saw an article, uh, nothing to do with the draft, but they said Deshaun Watson's gonna be the starter, which isn't shocking. Probably the best quarterback in the room for sure. But one thing I took away from the draft that obviously the Bucks, you know, I'm a homer for the Bucs, and I thought they had a great draft, but I think their third round pick was the best pick of the draft for them. Um I watched that guy's highlight tape, the wide receiver from Georgia State. He's looks fucking good. I mean, I know he played at Georgia State, but I'm excited about him. I think I think he's I don't know, it looked like a DK Metcalf, Randy Moss. I mean, those are fucking crazy comparisons. Yeah, like Mike Evans. But he's like super athletic. I didn't I didn't know who the kid was. They showed they drafted him. They I looked at his highlight tape. It's pretty incredible. If you haven't seen it, I'd suggest you go watch it.

SPEAKER_00

Teddy. Well, I mean, let's let's let's stick there. It's uh Bubba and Tyler. So what what did you think of the Bucks draft this year?

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, I mean, I kind of echo what Bubba said. I love the Ruben Bain pick. I don't I don't know if that happened when we were doing the the draft or uh the our pod last week or if it was right after, but um love the pick. Um I think he just I watched a lot of his games being a Miami fan, and I never could if you would have told me he's got long arms, I wouldn't know by watching him play football. Because I mean like he doesn't look like he's struggling. Now that's college. We'll see what he does in NFL. But um love that pick. Glad he fell to us. Um glad his arms are short if he turns out to be good. That only was the only reason why he fell. Um and then yeah, at a boba's point, I think I saw I forget who the wide receiver was, but uh I believe Hall of Fame wide receiver was talking about the Georgia State wide receiver saying, like, this guy's gonna be unreal. Like he's he's that good um kind of thing. So I'm excited about that to see what that we gotta replace Mike Evans, um franchise player, best player in franchise history, maybe. Um so it'll be I I'm excited. I think we did everything we needed to. I still think it'll be bad.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, I was I was getting the yeah, I think I I I I think we're a five I think we're a five, maybe six game, six wins this season.

SPEAKER_02

But no, well, it's gonna screw us, Bubba's when we're gonna win eight games. We're almost gonna we're gonna be in the last two games of the season, have a chance to win the division, and we're gonna be the 12th pick again instead of being a three-win team, four-win team like we should be. Yeah. At the end of the day, this year is predicated on firing Todd Bowles. If we end the year with Todd Bowles still as our coach, we may be in trouble for the case. Yeah, like we failed.

SPEAKER_00

Shame. All right, all right, Jay, fire away on the Cowboys. What'd you think about your draft?

SPEAKER_04

Uh Caleb Downs home run. Uh believable to grab him at 11, didn't have to move too much capital, move up a spot to get there. Surprised he fell down. I mean, you kind of I think we were off air by then, but we were texting about it, and you could hear everybody from both sets of announcers on ESPN and ABC, just to the immediate reaction from even players, like arguably the best player in the draft, right? So to grab him at 11, uh, a much a much needed stabilizer in the secondary. So I couldn't be happier. I think the kid out of UTF is solid. We need pass rushing, and I don't know too much about the kid from Michigan, so I'm not gonna you know kind of try to grade that. But you know, overall they got a B plus from a ranking standpoint. I'm still not wild about the coach. I'm still not wild about paying $150 million for two quarterbacks or one quarterback and two receivers, but I've been wrong in the past. Let's see what happens. Let's get some stuff out of camp. Let's see if Pickens shows up and chooses to be a professional and not a Pri Madonna. Um you know I'm I'm lukewarm. I thought the draft was fine. Still lukewarm on the team. Unfortunately, I'm just I got better. I got I got better cowboy syndrome, I got better Jerry syndrome. It's just it's always ground hard over and over again.

SPEAKER_01

Their odds changed though, right? I think they went from like plus 200 to plus 2500 or something like that on the Super Bowl.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I I only concentrate on the top 10, Boba, so you might be right.

SPEAKER_01

No, I know, I know, but I did I did I did look at everybody and I think they I think they went up. So that's good.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, love Caleb Downs.

SPEAKER_02

That dude's legit.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, you definitely you definitely took some shots in the comments uh uh uh section of of uh of the pod when uh based on your comments from last week, Jay. So um there were a lot of people not happy with your anti-Cowboys talk. So I thought that was pretty fun.

SPEAKER_04

That's that's fine. We can we can always discuss it, but I mean you can't fire at me that they've got a top five defense. They don't, they just don't.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04

What are you talking about? They they literally gave up the most points in the NFL last year, the most fucking points they gave up. Yeah, they were losing games.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah, they were losing games 55 to like 52.

SPEAKER_04

That's what I I just want to change the tone for a second. That's not an opinion, it's a mathematical fucking fact.

SPEAKER_02

Um I'm not I'm not arguing with you. Yeah, I'm not arguing with commenter.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, it was more than one person, Tyler. There was there were the few that that uh were not happy with with JS last week. Shovet commenters.

SPEAKER_04

Um I apologize for not responding directly in the DM. I'll jump in and I'll uh I'll apologize for the profanity, but the reality is it doesn't change anything, you know. Let's see how it goes this year. Let's see if they don't give up the most points in the league, and then we can start talking about how the defense is going to work out. But somebody pulls a hamstring, somebody blows a knee, and you're right back to the beginning. Hopefully this year we can score more points. You know, I just the offense makes me nervous. The offensive line's not what it used to be. The running back's another year older. It's just blah, blah, blah, blah.

SPEAKER_01

Quarterback single, though. Quarterback single again. That's good news.

SPEAKER_00

Quarterback single? Yeah, but he's how how old is he now? What has he got? 32, 33?

SPEAKER_04

Dak?

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, he's probably I would say he's the age. Yeah.

SPEAKER_04

I'm sorry, if I if I misspoke, I meant the running back. That's uh I was talking about Javante. Like I just, you know, we're we're gonna go to you know, I I know he had a uh a above average season and and no he beat expectations, but we're just gonna ride that back. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. We'll see. That's got guys. That's coming from a cow, that's not coming from a cowboy hater. That's coming from a cowboy fan.

SPEAKER_02

No, I'm all cowboys fans are also haters to their own team. Right. I'm a problem.

SPEAKER_01

No, they're realistic. At least he, at least Jay is.

SPEAKER_04

Listen, if if they start off 6-0, I mean, I might change my tune a little bit, but I'm always gonna be holding my breath because I just we we just haven't done it. I mean, over 30, I mean it's been over 30 years, man. It's it's really, really tiresome. It just is tiresome.

SPEAKER_01

I hear you. Before we uh before we jump off the NFL, uh I'm looking at a a little bullet point here. Are the it says the bills are number one in tickets and money at Bet MGM? Is that true? Has anybody looked into that? Or are they the like I would imagine?

SPEAKER_02

Got Josh Allen.

SPEAKER_01

Because they're not the favorite, right? Yeah. That's interesting. That's why people are seeing people are seeing value. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, them too, they need a fucking defense.

SPEAKER_04

I'll tell you what, maybe there there probably is some value in the Hawks second half ticket because they're gonna go into the half down 50. 50 in a playoff game. They've got 34 points with 45 seconds to get the game.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, I'm gonna 14-7, not like in game four getting swept.

SPEAKER_01

Do they know that? No, and they're home. Tanking only works in the regular season, not in the playoffs.

SPEAKER_00

Uh I mean, they are at direct, they are in Atlanta, right? Uh I'm not wrong on that.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. Yeah. That's crazy.

SPEAKER_04

It would be awesome for every fan to leave.

SPEAKER_00

I think I I I bet you a lot of them do. I mean, the place might be half empty when they can come back from halftime. So crazy. Um, real quick, I'll just touch on the Steelers. Um, I thought the draft was fine. I mean, like you guys, I mean, uh, you know, I thought the draft was fine. I didn't love the tackle in the first round only because he sounds like he's uh, although very talented, only been playing football for four years. He sounds like a bit of a project. I don't like taking projects in the first round. Uh Bernard from Alabama, you know, wide receiver in the second round. Um I'm a big fan of that pick. Um Aller from Penn State, uh not a fan of that pick at all. Um I see a lot of people trying to talk themselves into it, saying that uh he just didn't fit Penn State's offense. I I don't know, man. I watched that guy play for three years and uh I just don't see him being a pro. But hopefully I'm wrong. Um other than that, uh picked up a cornerback, picked up a uh tackle that they're gonna turn into a guard. So they went heavy on old line again. This is like the third or fourth year in a row that they they picked a couple of linemen in the first four rounds. Um loves the uh punt returner from uh Iowa. Um something that they've needed um for a while because their return teams have been god awful. Um Um and I'm I'm a fan of the fact that they're gonna have a new uh special teams coach this year too, because the guy they had, um, although uh he wasn't bad by any means, but their return teams have sucked. So um some new blood in there is is good to see. And uh other than that, I mean, it was just a solid draft. They picked up uh Heidenreich from Navy in the seventh round. I think he's actually going to uh uh be productive. I I mean I think uh for you guys that don't know, he's uh he's like a runner back slash wide receiver at Navy. Um put up big numbers last year. Um and uh I think he's gonna fit McCarthy's system as far as like what McCarthy wants to do. He'll be like a bit of a gadget player for him. So uh yeah, sounds like all three of you know, all four of us, I should say. Sorry, Tyler, I think all four of us are relatively happy with what our teams did. We'll find out in a couple years whether we're right or not.

SPEAKER_04

So when you when people say Aller wasn't a good fit, Penn State offense wasn't a good fit, is that because like throwing the ball 15 yards downfield was frowned upon at Penn State?

SPEAKER_00

I I will look I will say this. I mean, I watched a lot of Penn State games. I've probably watched 75% of the games uh you know since he was there. And uh, you know, there were plenty of times where I was I was pissed at the offensive coordinator, and they went through a couple of them in his tenure. So um again, is that because they were uh they were afraid that he couldn't make the throws that like we would want him to make, or was it just because of their offensive system that I that I do not know. I guess we'll find out. So um okay. That's that's the draft. So uh we're you know, we probably won't be talking much NFL for a couple of months, so we'll put that in mothballs. Um what do we want to do next here? Um let's talk about the NBA. Yeah, good.

SPEAKER_04

The Knicks have 83 points at the half.

SPEAKER_00

Oh my god, dude. Well, that that series is over. This is I think this was the first time in a while that uh all four series in the East went at least six games, um, but it looks like that one's not going seven. Um in the West, uh, who Oklahoma City swept, right? So that series is over. Who's the uh oh San Antonio one and five, so that series is over. Not much to talk about in either of those series. I mean, they were pretty much what everybody expected. Um what are you looking forward to? I guess that we got Denver Timberwolves tonight, Jay. What do you think is gonna happen there? In Minnesota, right? It's in Minnesota, I believe.

SPEAKER_04

It's in Minnesota. I think the number is a little inflated, but I don't see any reason why Denver couldn't and shouldn't win the game. Um I think Joker will step his game up. Uh I wouldn't be surprised if something a little crazy happens, a little altercation, a little scuffle somewhere down the road. I just don't, I mean, is is Gordon playing?

SPEAKER_02

I don't know. I didn't hear today. I haven't heard anything. I don't think he is.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, so down being down Gordon obviously is massive and can alter things, and playing on the road, you don't get Watson and those guys, Braun Brown to step up, maybe. But just being down and and D Vincenzo, that's a that's a tall order on offense. And I just don't see that kid that came over from the Bulls just dropping 43 again. You know what I mean? I just don't know what can't see that. Even if he gets the 30, I I think Denver still wins this game. So we'll see what happens.

SPEAKER_00

And how about uh Celtics? I mean, I that that game probably just started Celtic Sixers. What do you what do you think? What are you seeing tonight?

SPEAKER_04

And beat looks good early. He's missing he missed a couple, he's already missing threes, though. Um but Tatum just hit a bucket, they clawed their way back. It's a one-point game right now. Um we'll talk about it in the um categories, but obviously I'm a I'm a Sixer homer, so I'd like to see this series get extended. We're already on house money as far as I'm concerned. I didn't think it would go this far. Um, but kudos to the Sixers and Maxi. And, you know, do yourself a favor if you're listening to the pod or if you're watching right now on this pod, just marvel at the way Maxie catches a ball and takes seven steps before he puts it on the floor and it doesn't get called. I think it's amazing. It's like he moonwalks like Michael Jackson, they just don't say anything. He literally can go from one three-point line to another without taking a dribble and it doesn't get called. It's the best thing I've ever seen. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. Yeah, man. The the NBA traveling rules get crazier and crazier. Um anyway. Um obviously that the Knicks uh Hawks game is like we said is is going on tonight. That's not worth talking about. Um Lakers am I missing Lakers Rockets.

SPEAKER_02

That gets interesting. Oh, there you go. Yeah, that's the one I was missing. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. So yeah, the Lakers, so the Lakers Rockets, Lakers are up 3-2. They've lost the last two, and really they should have lost the last three, other than that epic collapse by Houston. Um so I don't know. Are they gonna you the Lakers gonna hang on or are they gonna blow a 3-1 lead or a 3-0 lead, I should say? What what do you guys think?

SPEAKER_02

Um I guess it's I think that would be a good thing. Depends if Durant plays. Yeah. I mean if Durant is Durant didn't play last game, right?

SPEAKER_00

No.

SPEAKER_02

So I mean, if Durant could come back in game six or seven, I don't know if it's been announced if he will play six. Um I think they definitely have a chance not like they haven't won without him in the lineup, but just that guy's just a killer. And if he's held if he can get out there and he can go for 40 again healthily. Um I don't think LeBron just uh I just don't think LeBron has the legs, and that's coming from like a huge LeBron guy to just carry the load like he needs to do. Now, if Luca comes back game seven, okay, maybe that you know, are they just trying to buy time for Luca to get healthy? Um I don't I don't know. I w I wouldn't risk that, obviously.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, we we haven't heard anything about Luca. Um Reeves Reeves did come back last the last game and he put up some numbers. They they still ended up losing though. So uh um but again, obviously he was rusty, so you know he didn't shoot as well as he normally does. Uh but you're right. I mean, uh this is what we talked about before the series started when we thought LeBron was basically by himself. I mean, could he really survive and carry them through this whole series? And he started out like a house of fire, but you could see him getting you know, he's looking older and older with every game that they play, you know. So um and hey, he's 41 years old, so you can't blame the guy who needs him.

SPEAKER_02

Probably time wins every time. Every time. Even for genetic freaks. It's it's gonna happen. Yeah. I'd I would love if the Rockets actually in again as a as a just force game seven just to make it fun.

SPEAKER_00

Oh yeah, definitely. I mean, because three I don't think 3-0's ever happen in uh the NBA, right? I mean I'm gonna be able to do that.

SPEAKER_02

Nobody's ever coming back from 3-1 was only the LeBron series in the finals. LeBron, yeah.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00

Um and then Jay, uh, what do you think? You think Toronto closes Cleveland out, or you think that's gonna go seven?

SPEAKER_04

I think it'd be fantastic if Toronto closes it out.

SPEAKER_02

Does James Harden just retire from basketball if they lose? Just like, alright, I'm done with this shit.

SPEAKER_04

That trade at the end of all of it's gonna be like who won the trade? Indiana.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah, seriously.

SPEAKER_04

It's gonna be amazing. Um, I I don't know. I I I don't want to say I feel bad for Cleveland. I do kind of feel bad for Mitchell a little bit. Um, but Toronto has no business winning that series, and they it looks like they're going to. Cleveland is a shell. Um, they don't look well coached, they don't look like they want to be there. Um, and Harden just has a track record that disappeared in big games like this. So if it goes seven, do you have confidence they win on their home floor?

SPEAKER_00

I don't know. I don't know. I I mean as far as Harden goes, did you guys see the stat that he's uh when the guy put the stat out, he actually misspoke. But the the real stat is Harden has 45 playoff games where he has um as many or more turnovers than made field goals. It's just wow to believe.

SPEAKER_04

That's a lot.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. So that's a lot. Well, it's I mean, for for a guy that good, I mean, you know, he's going to the Hall of Fame. I mean, no matter what Hall of Fame from, he's going to the Hall of Fame.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah. But does it matter? Uh so the back to the Lakers for a second. The league wants the Lakers for obvious reasons. Um, and you know, the the narrative that Luke Luca could potentially propel them to keep that series an OKC competitive. But it's even with Luca, it feels like a five, maybe six-game series max. I don't think it goes seven. With Houston, I think it's a sweep.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04

Um flip it around. We do do we think Detroit's gonna close out Orlando? Or is Orl, I'm sorry, is Orlando gonna close out Detroit at home?

SPEAKER_00

Uh you know, Franz being hurt definitely changes that series a little bit. Um I don't know. I think so. I think Detroit, I think Detroit's in trouble, yes, to answer your question. I think they're in trouble.

SPEAKER_04

So okay. So let's just let's play the fun game of Toronto closes out Cleveland, the magic, the magic close out Detroit, and the Sixers take the Celtics to game seven, and what if the Celtics lose game seven?

SPEAKER_02

Thunder might not lose a game in the playoffs, is what's gonna happen. Oh my god, yeah. Like legitimately. Did you see the stat the other day that um Shea SGA hasn't has missed like only like four shots in the fourth quarter since like the beginning of March? That's a legitimate. That's a legitimate has missed four shots in the fourth quarter since like March 30th.

SPEAKER_04

I fear for Knicks fan's safety if what we just said actually comes to fruition and they don't make it to the finals.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. Yeah. They're gonna be so excited about getting to a finals final eight to just get trounced swept. Yeah.

SPEAKER_04

That'll be fine though. If you're a Knicks fan, you're gonna be happy with that. You're gonna take it. You're not so you you're not supposed to beat the other side this year.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, that's a fair point. But that's because of the Celtics, I feel like. I feel like if they don't get the face of Celtics, people will be. That's their finals. That's like their final, yeah. Like I almost feel like that's their finals. Like the Celtic, like the Knicks want to beat the Celtics.

SPEAKER_01

They yeah, they'll be happier beating the Celtics.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, I mean the Knicks, I mean the Knicks specifically beat their team, built their team to play the Celtics. I mean, that's that's how they built their team. So um, yeah, you guys aren't wrong. I mean, that's you know, they they obviously think that's their main competition. So um, all right. The playoffs have been fun. The first round has been a lot more fun than anybody thought it was going to be coming in. So uh, you know, they they've just been a lot of blowouts, unfortunately, but there's been some good games too. So it's been a good time. Um, Tyler, time for your weekly NHL update. What do we got going on?

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, um very similar to the NBA, actually. It's it's been um the the big dog, so the avalanche, very similarly to the uh Oklahoma City Thunder. Um they swept uh dominantly. Um they look like just a fucking juggernaut. So uh it's very similar to the Thunder, it just looks like I I'm not sure anybody's gonna really give them much of a fight. Um surprisingly, um every other series, I mean the NHL always feels like it works out to be pretty competitive. Um the lightning obviously being down 3-2 lost last night at home. Every game in the series, all five games have ended 3-2, which is kind of crazy. Um, that'd be that'd be a nice little parlay if you bet that. Um Flyers end up taking the series over the penguins. A little bit of a little bit of an upset there. I think people thought the penguins had one last ride in them um with that group, and I think that group might be done. Um with Malkin, um Crosby. Uh I think that group is probably gonna be no longer. Um so that'll be interesting. See what happens there. Um Golden Knights, Vegas are in a in a dog fight with Utah. Um The Mammoth. No, they can't they have a name now. The mammoth the mammoth. They're their Zamboni is like a woolly mammoth. Zamboni, it's actually badass.

SPEAKER_01

That is fucking hilarious.

SPEAKER_02

So you got that. Sabres and Bruins is a great series. The Sabres were up 3-1. Um and now the Bruins have fought back. They have game six um tomorrow. Um game six is tomorrow in Boston. So if they can win that, they force game seven um in Buffalo, which will be um awesome environment to be in. Um and then you have the ducks and the Oilers. Um the ducks were like the worst odds in the whole thing to win the cup. They're gonna they're up 3-2 right now. It was a chance to win at home tonight to move on and take down the the what three-time reigning champs of the West. Um the Oilers. So um McDavid has been injured. Um he he was questionable going into the game last couple days ago. Um he played. Um, I believe he actually scored as well. So you know, we'll see if he's full strength, but they're up against it today. Um against the Ducks. So a lot of big game sixes tomorrow. Um a bunch of teams gonna be trying to um, you know, the Canadians have a chance to close it out at home. The Bruins have a chance to force game seven at home, and Utah has a force chance to force game seven at home um tomorrow. So a lot of fun stuff tomorrow night for some hockey. Um, but like I said, Avalanche probably the odds have gotten um worse to win or better, depending on the way you look at it. Um they're just a juggernaut.

SPEAKER_01

Um Yeah, Tyler, I was getting ready to ask you, like, and and hockey, I assume that 10 days rest is probably good for a team, but I don't know. I don't know.

SPEAKER_02

It's just like all sports. Like you you get people that say yes, but you get some people that like you're playing so well you want to play more, right? You just like why don't you want to play? If you're like basketball, you don't want to have eight days off and let a team if stay hot. So same thing.

SPEAKER_01

Specifically in the east, if the if Carolina's gonna get either Canadians or the Bolts, and if it goes to game seven, there that's like almost 11 days, like almost two weeks rest, which is and Carolina's very good, by the way.

SPEAKER_02

So Carolina's but yeah, so we'll see. I I wouldn't want to be the lightning or the the Canadian to face the uh hurricanes because they're very good this year.

SPEAKER_01

Well, it'd be interesting to see how these guys come off a lot of rest on both sides, the West Indies.

SPEAKER_04

I would go I would go against the the long layoff in game one.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah, exactly. Under under under team goals, um probably for both those teams. Yep. That's that's talking hockey, folks. Alright. Thanks, guys.

SPEAKER_04

That episode that episode That's brought to you by the History Channel and Wooly Mammoth.

SPEAKER_02

The uh the the Flyers actually have some great uh shirts out. I think it's Puck Everyone. Um so they they have some great gear out there. So but yeah, that's hockey.

SPEAKER_04

I like Puck Everyone.

SPEAKER_00

Well, Jay Ash, that leads us to you and uh why don't you kick us off with the Derby? One of your favorite uh events of the year. What do we got going on with the derby?

SPEAKER_04

It is all smiles. I just smile when I hear the word. It's fantastic. Well, last time we talked horses in any detail was the Breeders' Cup, and we went really, really deep. Um we're gonna keep it more surface level um so we don't drag this pot on for two hours. Um, but I think what we'll do is we'll start with the oaks, kind of give my thoughts or let Bubba tee his up as well. I don't Bubba did you get into the oaks at all?

SPEAKER_01

No, I didn't get into the oaks. I'm I'm I just focused on the derby, yeah.

SPEAKER_04

All right, so I'll just I'll I'll run through the oaks real quick and then uh we'll we'll we'll all chop the derby up and we'll all figure out uh getting out of the show with a pick and then like last year Derby Day, I'll probably post something where I put up um you know my my tickets are specifically for the big race, you know, what what I have for exotics as well as uh uh win play show, those types of things. Last year did pretty pretty pretty well. Pretty sure I uh had You almost did like really well.

SPEAKER_01

You almost did really, really well, I think, right?

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, I I hit three out of four, and I even I even called the horse that I was gonna blow it up and it it came in. So it should be so less lesson learned, so we'll get into it. All right. So the Oaks is tomorrow. There was a there was a threat of weather, um, but that looks like it's subsided and passed, might be a little brisk um in the in the 50s. So it should be a dry, sunny day, which will be good. Um for those that don't know, the Oaks is for the ladies. Um that's the the three-year-old Phillies that have run a similar schedule to the to the boys that run in the actual Kentucky Derby. Um it's a big day at the track. There'll still be over 100,000 people there. It's uh big Cancer Awareness Day, so um they encourage everybody to wear pink. And if you've ever been there, it it might be more might be more pageantry than the actual Derby Day. It's it's quite a sight. It's it's really fun. So with that said, we already have three scratches in the Oaks. And for those that don't realize this, unlike a normal horse race or an every every day, every weekend style horse race, you have alternates. So they're sitting there waiting for a scratch and they come in. Um, most races don't do that. If your if your horse gets scratched, you kind of want to look towards who's replacing it, um, mainly because there could be value there. Um it nine out of ten times doesn't really impact a race unless it's a speed horse or um a strong closer, but the strong closers typically aren't alternates for whatever that's worth. Um I'll start with the scratches. This this kind of sucks because going into this race, I was all about number 12, Bella Bellarina. Um Tyler Gafflion, Brendan Walsh combination uh paid very well for me two years ago, um, but was gonna go off at 12 to 1. So I saw some value there. They scratched. Uh number six, Miss Moe, was 20 to 1. That's a scratch. And then um Bottle of Rouge, 15 to 1, which is a big number for a horse that's won a couple races. So bringing up the scratches because there's a notable in here now uh that's gonna get a lot of attention if you haven't heard about it already. Um, but you're gonna hear about it, especially if you follow Barstool. So Lovely Gray has entered the race as the first alternate. That's Portnoy's horse out of Go Go Gray Stables. All right. So um it's replacing a 12 to 1 horse. I'm sorry, it's replacing a 20 to 1 horse, and it is currently at 5 to 1. So I'll say that again, Bubba. An alternate is come coming in, replacing a 21 horse at 5 to 1. If the horse was that good, it would have been in the race, it would have qualified based on points. It's not right. So it's gonna get a lot of action because of the owner, which makes sense. That's great. It's a stay away for me. Um, everybody have fun. Um, you know, what you know, watch Port Ray lose his shit afterwards when he doesn't hit the board. Um good social media television. Um, but he is a speed horse, he's got the 15 gate, she has the 15 gate. Um, so she'll probably jump out early, which I don't know if that's the right move here in this race. Um Nika and sorry, I don't have the glasses on, reset are both 77 to 1 and 66 to 1. So those are your those are your alternates. 66 to 1, a little bit tempting, but that that horse, the 17 horse, is is really the the true definition of an all or nothing. Um gonna try to break to the lead, it's gonna try to cut you know the field off at the rail and see if it can hold the pace. I don't think that's gonna happen in this race. So I've got it at five horses. Um number five, meeting is nine to one. Number one, explora is nine to one. Number two, Zhang is nine to two, which is the actual favorite. Morningland favorite of four to one. Number nine is um always a runner, five to one. Opened up a 10 to 1, so might be some value there. And then number four, um Country Stars is 10 to 1. So just real quick, because it uh we don't need to go deep. Meeting and Explora are are both coming out of California. Explorer is the uh is a Bafford horse. Um both of them opened up five to one, six to one. Um, so you could talk me into those two battling. Um, I just don't I'm not down with California horse racing these days. It's typically six horse fields. Um they're not very competitive, they certainly don't translate to these big fields. Um, Zany. Probably. Rightfully, the the number one horse, especially with the combination of or the connections of Irad and Pletcher. The interesting horse, and you're going to hear a lot about this one because you're going to hear the same storyline going into Saturday, is always a runner is a two-year is coming off two races. This will be his third, and it's for the same combination, Ortiz and Chad Brown, who have a horse doing the same thing in the Derby. So a lot of intrigue here. Always a runner down to five to one. Open it up at 10 to 1. I'm going to play all four of those to some degree in exotics and probably unders because I'm actually going to play the four horse to win this race, Country Stars, especially a 10 to 1. It's moving up because a lot of money is going to other places like the Dave Portnoy's horse. So throw your money over there. I'll take the horse that's one three out of four, and it's one on this surface, specifically Churchill Downs. So kind of pin that into the horses for courses. So I'm going to take the number four horse, Country Star, and I'll probably box that up or I'll key that with Explora, Zhang, and Meaning and Always a Runner. But if I'm just going to do an exacta, it's probably going to be four over two nine. That's that's what I'm looking at. So that's Zhang, always a runner, and Country Stars. Any quibble? Any thoughts?

SPEAKER_01

I like the nine. I'm looking, I'm looking at it. I'm looking at it now live. I like the nine. I think the I think your four picks are good for the value. Is it good for a winner? But I think if I'm look if I'm betting this, which I'm going to be betting it tomorrow, um I'm gonna pick a winner out of the 9-10-11 spot. I like those horses. They're coming off, they're all coming off of it looks like all of them won their last race. All three of them, 9-10-11. But more than that, I love the fucking names. Always a runner and chat Chad Brown and Ortiz are great together. But then Prom Queen and Percy's bar. Percy's bars, I mean the 11 horses. I'm betting on Percy's bar, but 9-10-11, those are the those are the horses. If I'm just I'm shotgunning it, I'm just looking at it now. But five to one, seven to one, and then nine to two. So I'd I like the I like the nine, I like the four, like you said, ten to one. I'm staying away from Port Noise Horse 2. Um, I'll probably throw Saez in there at 38 to 1 on a on a one-play show. Five bucks, you know. Why not? Yeah, but it's gonna be fun. That's gonna be a fun day tomorrow. I will uh I'll be at Disney World, so I'll have my little phone holder on the stroller like that, watching all day. Um but yeah, I'm excited for it, man. It's gonna be fun. Fun weekend.

SPEAKER_02

For anybody betting on if if you if you know whether to bet it or not, if you the DraftKings uh allows you to bet horse racing, so if you're in Florida and you want to bet on the horses, DraftKings is a viable option for you. Um they have a promotion going on right now that you can bet $10 on Dave's horse that's literally Dave's Philly, and you get $10 back if he doesn't win. So they're pretty much just giving you a free $10 play. If that tells you what they think of that horse, they probably don't think he's gonna actually win. Or they wouldn't give you that option to put like do that. Um so that that tells you everything you probably need to know. They're giving you a free ten dollar bet on that horse. Interesting.

SPEAKER_04

It makes me wonder. I I'm gonna actually have to look into that. I mean, you're this is well it's it's paramutual betting. This is a it's they're not an independent sports book. You know, I mean, in that regard, it's horse racing. So that you're impacting you're impacting pools. Yeah, yeah, but you're impacting pools. This isn't I don't I'm out on that. I don't know. I I I yeah, I'm I'm out on that. And that it's it's it's good for if you like other horses, I think it's great because it's gonna drive those numbers up. So good, you know, throw throw your free ten dollar bet, and it makes all the sense in the world. But make sure you have something to put that ten dollars on tomorrow or the next day, rather. Yeah, exactly. Anyway, all right, let's jump into the derby. So, Bubba, I'll let you kick it off, but we got two scratches. I'm sorry, yeah, two scratches, three scratches already. Um, nope, two. I'm uh I'm all over the place looking at the wrong notebook. Number 13, silent tactic was 20 to 1. That scratch, and then full effect also 20 to 1. I will say this, Bubba. 20, the number 20 horse at 20 to 1 was a live dog for me. Um, I like that big number and I like coming off a turfway. If you look at the last seven years, I believe a her a horse coming out of turfway has hit the board. Um, six out of the last seven, maybe seven out of the last eight. So um I just thought that was lining up. I thought it would be nice and sneaky for me under the radar um to have that at least under. I don't know if it necessarily was going to take it to win, but those two are off the board. I didn't really see any uh anything even worth talking about um from a replacement standpoint.

SPEAKER_01

Right.

SPEAKER_04

So what uh what are your thoughts on this field? I've got plenty.

SPEAKER_01

I mean just looking at it, uh I I'm with you on I mean it's anybody's race. That's how I see it. Um I don't see a clear clear favorite favorite. I mean the the the betting favorite four to one morning morning line is uh he's got some issues with his feet, is what I'm reading. Um I don't like that. And obviously he's in the in the in the one post, so I definitely don't like that. But I'm gonna pick a winner off the rip. I'll let you s I'll let you uh go in after that and then I'll I'll come back with with some more stuff. But uh Chief Wallaby, I'm looking at 8-1. Mott, I think he's got a chance to to repeat. And um fun fact, he's got his son has two races, two horses in the race. It's kind of funny. So I think uh I think dad's gonna come out on top, but I I like it at 8-1. I think it's gonna go down to 6-1. Um it's up to 9-1. Is it up to 9 to 1?

SPEAKER_00

Yeah.

unknown

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01

I think it's I I think it's gonna go back down. I I really like that horse. I like him in the 12-12 post, and uh, that's who I'll be betting on um to win it. Um, but I'll have some exotic stone in too. Puma obviously won the Tampa Derby. Um we'll see. You know, I don't know when the last time a Tampa Derby horse won the Kentucky Derby, but it'll be fun to cheer for him. Um but Chief Wallaby is the one I'm looking at in Bill Mott.

SPEAKER_00

You're talking about the Florida, the Florida Derby? Is the Tampa Derby?

SPEAKER_04

No, the Tampa Derby is a different race. Yeah, Puma the Puma won the Tampa Derby. The Puma came in second at the Tampa.

SPEAKER_00

In the Florida Derby. In the Florida Derby, yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. Um all right. Well, let me I'll I'll jump in real quick because I'll I'll go fast here and then Ash will let you uh will let you give us all the details. But uh I mean there's a few horses that I like. Um as you guys said, I mean it is it is wide open. I mean, Bubba, I'm sorry, I didn't want to cut you off. I mean you you were done there, right? You said you were. Yeah, no, you're good. All right, so uh Commandment did win the Florida Derby. Um, you know, the funny thing about Commandment, who was 7-1 when I looked uh today, um you know, the funny thing with that horse is that uh can't keep a jockey. Um they've three different jockeys on that horse, even though the horse has been running well. As a matter of fact, the horse that rode him um at the Florida Derby and won that race is now running um riding emerging market. So he had a choice between the two horses and he chose to uh jump on emerging market. Emerging market's 11-1, only has two starts. Uh both have been wins. Um one of them he came from behind, so you know he's got that in him. Um the the biggest thing with with uh emerging market is he's the only horse in the race that has won it a mile and three sixteenths. So you know that he can most likely uh go the distance uh with the Derby being a mile and a quarter. So um the distance probably shouldn't be a problem for him. You never know that about the other horses um until they actually do it. Um again, you mentioned uh the Puma um lost by a nose at the Florida Derby. Uh doesn't like being crowded, so likes to race on the outside, um, which you know can be a problem and it might actually have cost him that Florida Derby race. Um so that that's interesting there. Um uh further ado, got John Velasquez, who's won three derbies. So um that in itself um is a uh uh a big deal. Uh but um if we want to talk about curses, because of the scratch yesterday that Jay talked about, silent attack that got scratched on Wednesday. Uh further ado, who's the 18th horse, is actually gonna be running out of the 17th spot, and no horse in the 17th spot has won the uh derby. So uh take that for what it's worth. Um uh Renegade, uh the favorite, 9-2. Uh Pletcher as the uh uh trainer. I read Ortiz, uh great jockey who's never won the Derby. Um and you know this is interesting because Ortiz chose to ride him over uh Commandman and further ado. So had his choice of a lot of highly thought-up horses and decided to jump on Renegade, which leads me to Chief Wallaby, Bubba. I'm with you. That's my that's my pick for the winner. Chief Wallaby, who wasn't originally in the race, but like the Oaks, uh Jay mentioned uh it works the same way in the Derby where it works on a point system. Chief Wallaby wasn't in the original Derby, got in because of a scratch. There's a lot of people who think he might be the best horse. Um he's only run three races this year. He's got a win, he's got uh uh a place in a show. Uh the two losses uh were by like a combined neck. I mean, they were they were that close. Um I think one of them was actually by a nose. Um so uh yeah, that's uh he you know he did lose the Florida Derby. He came back strong, and and and that's one of the races that uh you know he he just missed out on, but he got boxed in, and that it was like just uh an unlucky uh uh happenstance that he got boxed in. He did end and end up working his way out, and he just he just couldn't uh he just couldn't get there. So Chief Wallaby at nine to one.

SPEAKER_01

He's had two good workouts this week at Churchill, so that's that's lots of good.

SPEAKER_04

He he didn't get he didn't get boxed in, he went, he went wayward. He ran sideways. So but we'll we'll talk about that. Are you done? Because you said you were gonna be quick, and that was the opposite of quick. You were actually you were actually 2x Bubba. That's amazing.

SPEAKER_00

That was like that was like three minutes.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, yeah. For guys that's done no research.

SPEAKER_00

Pretty quick, but go ahead.

SPEAKER_04

I have no I have no notes. You just you covered everything. I have no notes. So um, yeah, Irad's obviously gonna win one of these one year, it's just not gonna be this year. Um, he's just too good of a jockey, but it it's the same thing with Pletcher. You know, the guy's too good of a trainer to not have a derby under his belt, but that one hole is just it's it's a death trap. And the reality is renegade, although the morning line favorite, might not be the best horse in this field. And at the same time, as Bubba was saying, it's got some foot issues, it's gonna be wearing special shoes. Um, it's just a lot to overcome. But forget about winning this race. The the one hole is so dead. There there's only been one horse to hit the board in the last 16 years out of the one. Um, and if you guys remember, Moe Dongle was going back four years ago coming off the Florida Derby Bubba was a was a big, you know, big favorite in that race, caught the one hole, finished fifth. Um, so it's not great. It's not great at all. Um, which which will lead us to Commandment, which most thought was going to be the morning line favorite, and we're shocked that it was actually Renegade. Jeff already hit on it, can't keep a jockey, has a grinder style, meaning it's always going to be there. It's it's something you definitely should keep in on your unders and your exotics. I just don't know if I like it to win. Um, the number probably sit around there for a little bit, depending on Renegade could scratch if these foot issues keep getting worse in the next day or two, um, just for safety reasons. And you you might also, it might be a move by Pletcher, like, hey, let's just pull him. We're not going to win this race from the one hole and let's uh let's go get him ready for the freakness. So we'll see what happens there. Um, but I I it does make me nervous when you when you see a horse that can't keep a mount. Um nothing wrong with Sayez. And Cox is a great trainer. I just don't think that's the horse for me to win. Here, here's the thing about the Puma Bubba, because I I went into this race before any noise coming out of the Florida Derby, because it's it's typically a good litmus on what what this race is going to be. That was a blanket finish between the commandment, commandment, the Puma, and Chief Wallaby. There are rumors out there that the Swifties have gotten a hold of this, that Taylor Swift is either involved with this horse or her and Kelsey are putting money on this horse. That public money makes me a little nervous coming in. Although I I just I do like the poo. I like the name. I like Javi. Um, I like Gustavo Delgado, who's gotta um has a win here at the Derby.

SPEAKER_01

Mage.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, with mage, exactly. And I and I do like the number. I like eight to one, especially if it stays around there. So I'll I'll have a ticket on that for sure. Don't know if I'll have a ticket to win. Um, and then it brings us to emerging market. Whether emerging market can do something that hasn't been done since the 1800s, which is win this race after it's uh on its third start. Um, you've got to, you have to, absolutely have to play it to place Joe or in a super because Flavian, that's what he does. Um, so he he hits the board in this race. He hits the board in the triple crown races. Um I'm I'm quite certain he's hit four of the last five. So I would I would keep him on your unders, and it's a fun story. Um 11-1. Probably see that come down because it's gonna get a lot of talk on NBC. Um Eddie Ow and the boys are gonna be hyping it up. Um so you you'll you'll see some late money go that way. Um Jeff, you mentioned the the 17 hold now being filled by um drawing a blank on the name here.

SPEAKER_00

Further ado, right?

SPEAKER_04

Further ado. Um lot of people I've I've listened to and paid attention to are talking like this is this is probably the best horse in the field. Um don't know if I agree with that. And coming out of Keeneland, eh, that's not always the best indicator either. Didn't beat anybody um in an impressive win. So coming out of the 17 gate kind of uh tarnishes the luster for me.

SPEAKER_01

And like I said, 18 or is he 18 or 17?

SPEAKER_00

He he's number 18, but he's but he's running out of 17 because of a scratch.

SPEAKER_04

He's gonna slide in. Yeah. So anyway, with that said, like I like I led with full effect was the horse I liked at 20 to 1. I'm not seeing the big dog. I mean, I'll I'll mix something in. Um I you know, I've heard a lot of people talk about Intrepido at 54 to 1, but again, that's coming out of California. So maybe something late. But let's just be clear. And if you're if you're new to the Derby betting or if you've experienced this, you'll understand what I'm about to say. It's a 20-horse field. All bets are off. Like you don't know what the fuck's gonna happen. Um it's a long, you gotta have a clean trip or as clean a trip as possible. It's why it tends to lean towards the stalkers. Um, you need speed down the end, and you need to be improving. These are three-year-olds, and it scares the shit out of me that I've been on Chief Wallaby since the Florida Derby, and you two are on it as well. Um, but we we we have an equipment change, um, meaning it's going to blinkers, which is typically not a good sign, but it's not going to blinkers for any other reason, but to improve a young horse's ability to run. And if you go back and you watch that derby, that Florida Derby, which it did lose by uh by a neck, um he just gave way. He he didn't he he was moving his head, he didn't see either horse coming, which means he wasn't focused, and then he started to run a little bit sideways, and the blinkers should help that. Um, if this was any other trainer doing it, I'd probably be a little uh you know, kind of second guessing it, kind of being like, ah, they've kind of thrown in the flag, putting blinkers on, or throwing in the tile, putting blinkers on him. But Mott, this is what he does with three-year-olds. If this was Wesley Ward, Wesley Ward likes to win with two-year-olds, right? Like Wesley Ward's got a two-year-old, I'm banging him, right? Mott with a three-year-old, he likes to develop them. He's he's improved his buyer score every race, which means he should be poised to do that again. And his buyer score has been good enough to be the best in this field. So I'll take him with the bleakers. I love him at nine to one, especially if he hovers around there. Let the Swifties put in their money, let emerging markets uh money come, let commandments money come. I'll I'll stay with Walla B. Um, and it's lucky number 12.

SPEAKER_00

So all right, Tyler, do we make do we make it a clean sweep or you got somebody different?

SPEAKER_02

Uh I just like Bob Bafford. I I'm not a he I'm I don't look at the numbers or anything like that. You you guys study and and do the fun the fun part of gambling with the horses. Uh I just like Bob Bafford. So I'll probably just put some money on one of his horse one or two one of his horses.

SPEAKER_01

Who's got thex has the most, right? Cox has got four horses in it.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah, uh three, I think. I think. Um but yeah, Bafford's got two. Litmus tests, I think, is uh the one that has a shot. He's I think he's 20 to 1, right? Uh litmus tests. I might remember that correctly.

SPEAKER_02

Litmus and uh patonte or patente. I don't know how they pronounce that. He's he's next to Chief Wallaby. So um I just like Bafford.

SPEAKER_04

Yeah, so on Patente's a beast of a horse. Like Patente has that you're gonna hear a lot of talk when they start parading him around. Um like I I heard somebody call him like the he referred to Justify as a uh 90s baseball guy on juice, right? Like you just look at the horse like I like that horse. Patente has that type of physique. Um, but again, coming out of California, and he got beat by So Happy, which is gonna be a story, you know, offspring of Run Happy. He's got a good story coming out of it, but I you know, Bubba, I saw you shaking your head earlier in agreement with me. I'm just out on California horse racing.

SPEAKER_01

I'm out yeah, yeah, same year.

SPEAKER_04

So we'll we'll see what happens. It's gonna be a fun day regardless. Um, like I said, we'll we'll post some stuff up on Saturday. All all these all these are subject to change based on numbers and based on any additional scratches. I think I I think the thing to look out for is if you uh are a believer in the one hole and and all things are meant to be broken and you're looking at renegade, pay attention before the race starts because there is a good chance he might scratch.

SPEAKER_01

Yeah. What's the weather looking like uh Sunday?

SPEAKER_04

High s high 50s, yeah, high 50s, low 60s, no no rain. So we get a dr if we get a dry track both days, it should be fun.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_04

And I think I think that's the thing too. This this we don't have a dominant horse um coming in. You know, normally this is a one or two horse thing. We we had it last year. Um we we had some dominant horses. We don't have it this year, so it should be a lot of fun.

SPEAKER_00

Yeah. All right, looking forward to it. Well done, boys. Um, let's get into the categories. So um I'll start it off. Uh lock of the week. I don't remember who I had last week. All I know was a loss. So um this week I have Denver minus six and a half. I know Ash, you said you were a little worried about that number, but uh I just I I I don't know. I have a feeling they're gonna mop the floor with them. So I got Denver minus six and a half.

SPEAKER_04

Go, go. Uh last week I had the Lakers plus nine and a half. That was a win. Um one on the floor, I believe. And then this week, my lock of the week is in golf. I have Cam Young top 10 at a plus number, plus 132. Um, we already know I hit him first round leader. Um, I've got him to win the tournament outright, but I just figured the safe lock of the week would be top ten for Cam Young. Golf course is tailor-made for his game.

SPEAKER_01

I like it. So I wasn't here last week and I didn't give the categories last week, even though Jeff reminded me. I just forgot. Um but uh the week before that I had LA Dodgers, I think minus one and a half. I don't think that hit. I'm not gonna go back and check. I'm just gonna assume it didn't. Um I have the over this week and the Bolts Canadian uh Tampa Montreal game tomorrow. Um it's minus one ten, five and a half goals. I think you're gonna see the Tampa Bay goal. He hasn't been playing uh very good at all. Um or he didn't have a good you know game five. But uh I like the over in that game.

SPEAKER_02

Alrighty. And I had the Lakers. I was with Jay. I had it at plus ten and a half. That obviously came in. Um today my lock was is the Celtics minus five and a half. I think they get it done. I would love to see the the um 76ers push them, and they're up seven right now, the 76ers, so uh looking like a bad bet at this point. Um but yep, Celtics minus five and a half. Not I'm not changing it.

SPEAKER_00

Alright, and what do you got? What do you got for your prop?

SPEAKER_02

Um last week I had Raiden Point uh scoring a goal, and I think I even said he's gonna get a power play goal. Um and he did in the first period. Um so that hit. Um this week I'm gonna or this uh week I'm going with Connor McDavid over three and a half shots. Um it's plus one ten. Um playing for their life tonight. So I just think he'll be all over the place, even if he is a little injured. Um I'm sure they'll shoot him up with something and he'll fly around.

SPEAKER_00

Bubba.

SPEAKER_01

Let's see here. So I had a Otani two weeks ago, over six and a half Ks. I'm just looking at this.

SPEAKER_00

That came in.

SPEAKER_01

Did it?

SPEAKER_00

That came in, yeah, yeah. Did they win the game? And actually the Dodgers won too. Yeah, you you won those two. You lost. Oh, let's get lost your uh yeah. You I'm remembering now from last week, yeah.

SPEAKER_01

All right, all right. Well, let me just uh let me just tell you what I got this week. Uh it's already a loser. I know that. Um Celtics to score first in this game tonight, and the uh 76ers scored first, so that's a loser.

SPEAKER_00

Alright. Um again, I don't remember. I don't remember what any of my picks in this uh category was last week, but I went 0 for 3, which is all that really matters. Um this week my prop is Joker uh plus 750 to have 20 boards tonight. So um I'm with Jay. I think he's gonna have a monster game. So plus 20. I mean plus 750 for 20 rebounds tonight.

SPEAKER_04

20 rebounds?

SPEAKER_00

20. Yep. Damn.

SPEAKER_02

20. That's some rebounds.

SPEAKER_00

That's why it pays so well.

SPEAKER_04

Damn. All right. Um last week I had Aaron Ryan Tagala in top 10. I believe that hit Tyler. Am I correct? Pretty sure it did. I would have to double check on that, but yeah, I'm pretty sure I had a ticket on and it won. So I'm gonna say a one. Um this week, this week staying with golf. Um Ricky Fowler, top 10 plus 350. There you go. Ricky's playing good golf, people. The world's a better place when Ricky plays good golf.

SPEAKER_00

And what do you got for your dog?

SPEAKER_04

My dog, I have the Sixers plus 185 tonight.

SPEAKER_00

Alright, looking good. Um, I, on the other hand, am not. I had the Hawks plus 136, so that's a big L.

SPEAKER_02

You're so off that it, you know, you get credit for it, I think, Jeff.

SPEAKER_01

Let's see here. What did I have? I had the Cubs money line um on April 15th, and that hit plus 125. Um, I'm taking the Lakers tomorrow night at plus 155. I think they get it done for my dog.

SPEAKER_02

Alright. And I last week had the Carolina Hurricanes were dogs, and I think they won in four or five, so I'm not sure why they were dogs last week, but and it was only plus one oh five, but um, they won. Um this week went with the top US player being Chris Goddard up, not looking good, shot one over par today, so he is 11 shots back or 10 shots back of the three guys in up at the top that are all American. So that's looking like just chalk it up to an L probably, unless he has just an unreal Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Um but uh so it is what it is.

SPEAKER_00

Alright. Bragg and Wrights. Go, go, go. Last week was last week was a disaster for the three of us.

SPEAKER_02

Yep. We can run through them quick. Uh I think this was you here, Jeff. Yankees minus one and a half, pirates, Cavs minus two and a half, Nuggets minus two and a half.

SPEAKER_00

Yep, the only one that came in with the Yanks minus one and a half, the other three were all losses.

SPEAKER_02

At least the team that you actually want to win won. On the positive. Yeah. Jay, this was you. Yankees minus one and a half. Schlitler over six and a half strikeouts, Cavs minus two and a half, Nuggets minus two and a half. Same thing.

SPEAKER_04

That was one and three.

SPEAKER_02

It's a trend. Big cup of lame. And Bubba, you had you had Pirates plus one and a half, Cavs, Nuggets, Sixers.

SPEAKER_01

All I know is I didn't see 237 deposited in my account. So it doesn't.

SPEAKER_00

You went Ulfer, unfortunately, Bubba.

SPEAKER_02

Oh gosh. Again, you should get that money back. You were you were correct, just on the wrong side of it.

SPEAKER_04

That's a fun game when you wake up, Bubba, and your eyes are a little blurry, and you just kind of look at your phone. You're like, is that a zero or a two three? Oh fuck, I'm going back to bed. Yeah. Exactly.

SPEAKER_02

Got another chance this week. So um, Jeff, I believe this is you here. Not looking good.

SPEAKER_00

No. Um yeah, so what do I got? I got the Hawks plus two and a half. Again, that's that's dead on arrival. Um, I got the Mets over seven and a half runs. I got the Celtics uh uh Knicks. I mean Celtics Sixers uh plus uh two, I mean over two twelve and a half, and I got that Denver Timberwolves game uh plus two twenty four and a half, but again, none of it matters because the Hawks aren't winning. So uh 20 25 25 thrown into the ocean.

SPEAKER_02

Even if that was plus 25. Crazy. Yeah, yeah, seriously. Jay.

SPEAKER_04

Okay. Um I have the Sixers plus 175 to win on the floor. I have the Nuggets on a minus number to win on the floor. I've got the Lightning tomorrow to extend the series to bring it home for a game seven at minus 110. And I have the Lakers to finish off the Rockets tomorrow. 25 pays 455. So 1720.

SPEAKER_03

Very nice.

SPEAKER_01

I've got the Boston Celtics for the game. I've got Denver tomorrow night. Uh or sorry, that's tonight for the game. Big money lines. Um Celtics are down right now, so it doesn't look good. I do have the Pistons making it a series tomorrow. Um and beating the Magic. And then I've got the over and that lightning game. Once again, 25 wins 130. Um, not a bunch, but I need a winner.

SPEAKER_02

Yes, we do. We're on a little bit of a drought here, huh? A few weeks.

SPEAKER_03

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02

Yeah. Well, let's get it back, boys. Let's get it back. All right.

SPEAKER_04

Let's do it. All right. Go ahead.

SPEAKER_00

No, I was gonna say, send us home, Joe.

SPEAKER_04

Oh. By the way, I didn't realize you've been wearing a casual chaos hat this whole time. It's fantastic.

SPEAKER_00

It's good to see it. Representing.

SPEAKER_04

All right. All right. Well, follow us on all the socials at Casual Chaos Live. You know what those socials are. Um strap in for the weekend, people. We've got playoff hockey, playoff basketball, we've got horse racing, sport of kings, triple crown, the crown jewel of it all, the Kentucky Derby. Um be safe out there, drink responsibly. And if you want to really drink responsibly, drink last rep. Start start it start a new Kentucky Derby tradition. Start hitting winners with last rep. That's that's what's the way to look at it.

SPEAKER_00

Did you did you see that uh uh the president announced today that he's uh removing the the tariffs for uh Scotch? So uh it's gonna I don't know, it has something to do with uh Kentucky too. So um that's not a last rep thing, obviously, but uh it plays well into the derby.

SPEAKER_04

So um was there yeah was there a s was there a slew of Ron Burgundy memes afterwards? Scotch, scotch scotch. I love scotch.

SPEAKER_00

I'm sure there were, but I didn't see them. So yeah, there should have been. Everybody have have fun this weekend. Like Jay said, a lot of good shit, on. So enjoy it.

SPEAKER_04

All right, everybody. For Jeff, for Bubba, for producer Tyler, I'm Jay Ash. We'll see you guys next week.

SPEAKER_00

Peace out, fellas. Bye, everybody.