Episode 20: June 2025 Maine Real Estate Market Update: Reading the Tea Leaves

In this month’s Elegant Maine Living, Elise Kiely unpacks what the national real estate market is whispering to Maine — and why timing, strategy, and local insight matter more than ever. From national affordability challenges to Maine’s rising inventory, Elise explains how trends from other markets eventually make their way up the coast, giving Maine buyers and sellers a chance to prepare and act wisely.

You’ll learn:

• National Market Trends: Why buyer jitters persist despite stable mortgage rates, how equity gains are shaping seller decisions, and why today’s market is nothing like 2008.
• Maine Market Highlights:
  • Statewide home sales up 10.5% year-over-year in June.
  • Inventory up 14% over May — the highest since 2020.
  • Cumberland County’s rolling 2nd quarter sales up 15%, median price just over $600K.
  • Lincoln County’s sales up 20% with a 24% jump in median price to $507K.
• New Maine Legislation: How a tripling of the real estate transfer tax on the portion of sales above $1M (effective Nov 1, 2025) could impact timing for luxury transactions.
• Strategic Takeaways: Why late summer and early fall could be a sweet spot for buyers, and why sellers may want to move before spring competition heats up.

Plus, Elise takes you inside her stunning new $5.95M listing at 10 Cromwell Cove in Harpswell — a private 3-acre coastal retreat with 315 feet of sandy beach frontage, sweeping ocean views, classic shingle-style architecture, and a sleek contemporary interior. Whether you dream of hosting a wedding on the lawn, enjoying barefoot walks to the shore, or simply soaking in Harpswell’s magical light, this home is pure Maine coastal elegance.

Links & Resources:

• View the full listing for 10 Cromwell Cove, Harpswell: See Listing

Connect with Elise

🌐 Website & Listings: Legacy Properties Sotheby’s International Realty
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Please remember this podcast is for entertainment and educational purposes only and does not create an attorney client or real estate advisor client relationship. Please reach out to me directly if I can assist you in your real estate journey.

Transcript

Elise Kiely: [00:00:00] Hello, Maine. The phrase of the day is Reading The Tea Leaves. What the National Market Is Whispering To Maine. Well, welcome to Elegant Maine Living where we explore the world of real estate with insight and intention. Each month, I share market updates to help you navigate Maine's dynamic real estate landscape.

Elise Kiely: But the true elegance of real estate in Maine lies in the communities we build, not in the houses we buy. So I also spotlight Maine's visionaries, entrepreneurs, and everyday leaders. Whether you're buying, selling, or simply curious about life here in Maine, this podcast is your guide to the people and places that make Maine such an amazing place to live, work, and play well.[00:01:00] 

Elise Kiely: Hello and welcome back to Elegant Maine Living. I am your host, Elise Kiely, and today we're gonna dive into the real estate market update. Don't worry, I promise. There will be no dry charts or economic droning. Just a sharp look at what's happening across the country and what it might mean for us here in Maine and how you can be a savvy player in this ever-changing game.

Elise Kiely: And why this is important to you even if you're not interested in buying or selling, perhaps you already own a home and have no intention to sell. It's always helpful to have a rough idea of the value of your real estate, and perhaps this market update will give you a sense of that value. And because we're in Maine, we get the benefit of watching how things unfold in the rest of the country.

Elise Kiely: Let's face it, design trends, market shifts, and even fashion before they eventually maybe wash up on the [00:02:00] main shores. We get to take a look at what's happening in the rest of the country with an idea that those trends may eventually come to Maine. I am also in this episode going to give you a peek at my latest listing in Harpswell.

Elise Kiely: That is just stunning, and that will make you want to pack a picnic and head straight for the coast. Well, let's start with the big picture. Let's look at the national trends. What's happening with buyers, sellers, home prices and inventory. Well, we talked last time during the May market update that buyers were starting to get a little cautious and buyer jetters on the national level are real.

Elise Kiely: Even though mortgage rates have stabilized in the high sixes a bit, buyers are still feeling overall hesitant. Economic uncertainty and job market shakiness are weighing on consumer confidence. Home prices, however, have hit record highs. In fact, the median US home price [00:03:00] and remember median half the home sold above this figure, half the home sold below it.

Elise Kiely: The median US home price is now over $435,000. That's a new all-time high. However, affordability is the word of the year, or rather the lack of it. We still have, affordability is a major issue. And that buyers are struggling to buy that first time property. Equity growth is still impressive. Homeowners have seen an average gain across the country of around $140,000 of equity over the last five years, and that's great news for sellers and those who are sitting on that equity, and that's a major difference between.

Elise Kiely: What nationally we're seeing in the real estate market and what we saw in 2008 where homeowners didn't have that equity. And let me be clear, what we're seeing here on the national level and a shift in the market is nowhere near [00:04:00] what we saw in 2008. So it's. You can't make that comparison very easily or very legitimately I should say.

Elise Kiely: We are seeing shifts in the national level, but it is more of a stabilizing, and there are some markets, Florida, for example, California and some places out west that are really seeing a, a bigger shift than other parts of the country. Nationally. Price growth is slowing. And affordability is still tough.

Elise Kiely: We're seeing a deceleration in price appreciation. So prices are rising. They're just not rising at the pace that they were rising before. It's still not translating into affordability. Even though we have this slower growth in price, we're still struggling with affordability, particularly for the first time home buyers who are just priced out of the market.

Elise Kiely: And I think it, I think that will hold true until we see interest rates in the low sixes or ideally in the high fives. I think that will open up a lot of [00:05:00] opportunities for those first time home buyers. There's also a tax policy on the national level that I'm keeping my eye on, and we'll definitely give you updates on this podcast.

Elise Kiely: As of this recording, president Trump has floated the idea of eliminating capital gains taxes on primary home sales. It's still very early, it's still very speculative, but it is something to keep an eye on that will have a significant impact, I think, as well on releasing inventory into the market. As you probably know now, under the current legislation, there is an exemption for gains for single people and property that is held jointly by married couples that a certain amount of gain is tax exempt.

Elise Kiely: But talk to your accountant about that. But this would be an elimination of all capital gains on primary residences. Well, let's, now let's go from the big picture. Let's dive into Maine. What does this mean? All these national trends, [00:06:00] what does this mean for Maine? I like to say Maine is where trends come to take a breather.

Elise Kiely: Yeah, we often get market shifts later than the rest of the country, and that's a good thing. So we get to sit back and look at what is happening in other markets and in our feeder markets, in our markets that are close to us and see what's happening. And then with the trained eye, be able to take predictions of what and when things will change in Maine.

Elise Kiely: In other words, we get to observe, prepare, and act strategically. And what we've seen in Maine in June of 2025 is that sales and inventory are both rising. In June, Maine saw about a 10.5% increase in home sales compared to the same time last year. That's a lot of the inventory that came on the market and went under contract and sold.

Elise Kiely: That is more churn in the market. That's buyers coming in, buying up inventory, sellers releasing [00:07:00] inventory, and that's very healthy. Even better. Inventory was up 14% over May, and sales were up 17% month over month. We haven't had this much statewide inventory since October of 2020, five years ago. Well, let's look and see what's happening in two of the counties that I particularly keep an eye on in Cumberland County, which is our most populous county.

Elise Kiely: If you look at a rolling second quarter year over year, we saw over a 15% increase in homes sold with the median price rising almost three and a half percent to 600,000. And what that means is in Cumberland County, half the homes sold above 600. Thousand and half sold below 600,000. That's a healthy but not frenetic increase in appreciation, but it's a very healthy increase in inventory.

Elise Kiely: Now, Lincoln County, which is more mid-coast, has [00:08:00] really seen some significant changes and it's making significant waves. They've had a 20% increase in units sold in June of 25, and an astonishing almost 24% jump in median sales price. So in Lincoln County, now the median sales price. Is over $507,000. That's a really big jump, and I think the reason we're seeing that increase is that people are getting priced out of the Cumberland County market and are going north to Lincoln County so that they can afford a home.

Elise Kiely: But the median sales price at 5 0 7 and Lincoln is only a little under a hundred thousand dollars less than Cumberland County. So what's happening trend-wise? I think what we're seeing is sellers and buyers are taking their time. Buyers have a little bit more breathing room. They can be more thoughtful.

Elise Kiely: They can take time to negotiate, to investigate due diligence on a property, the [00:09:00] frenetic pace of COVID, and having to purchase a property without even seeing it and no inspections, and hoping that they pick your offer, which was one of 15 over the other 14. That time period is over. And we are still seeing multiple offers on some properties, but not every property.

Elise Kiely: And sometimes when properties are priced a little aspirationally, we're seeing houses sit on the market and we're starting to see some price reductions. Let me be clear though, there are still properties that are getting multiple offers. There are still properties that are selling privately before they hit the public market.

Elise Kiely: So do not misinterpret that there is a significant, vast shift. There is an adjustment, I would say more than a shift. And an important heads up about some new legislation in Maine, and this is not early stages, like the capital gains on the national stage. This is legislation that has passed in Maine [00:10:00] that will have an impact on million plus properties.

Elise Kiely: And I gauge luxury at this market to be about. Two to two and a half million. So this is not just the top 10% of homes. This legislation will impact every transaction where the purchase price is a million dollars and higher. And what's happening is we've always had a transfer tax in the state of Maine, at least always since I have been practicing real estate since the early two thousands.

Elise Kiely: And what would happen is the buyer and the seller would split. It was based on a. A dollar 10 per side buyer and seller on every $500 of value, and that transfer tax has been going on forever. But what's happened now is for property that's selling above a million dollars for that value above a million, the transfer tax will stay the same for a million less of this transaction.

Elise Kiely: But on every dollar above a million, that transfer tax will triple. On the portion above the threshold. So it's [00:11:00] really important to plan, and this legislation will go into effect on November 1st. So if you have your house on the market, or if you are looking to buy a home and the purchase price will be above a million, you may want to think about the closing date.

Elise Kiely: You may want that closing date to be before November 1st, so both buyer and seller can take advantage of the current situation on transfer tax before their law goes into effect. So I want to talk a little bit about how I use these national trends to advise my Maine clients. One of the things I love about being affiliated with Sotheby's International Realty is the access to national insights and on the ground intelligence from top producing colleagues across the country.

Elise Kiely: As I've mentioned on other episodes, I network on a very regular basis with a group from Florida. Washington and the Midwest, and twice a month with colleagues around the [00:12:00] country, from California to Florida to Arizona, Chicago, New York, Boston, Atlanta, and many cities in between. And what we do on these calls is we share market information and so we get real time information of what's happening in the single family market, what's happening in the condo market, what's happening with investors, and I know some of those trends will eventually make it to Maine. This national view lets me anticipate shifts before they fully arrive here on our shores for buyers, now is the time to make a move before more competition returns to the market.

Elise Kiely: And I'll go out on a limb here and make a prediction that I think. And the rest of Q3 and Q4 is going to be a very attractive time for buyers before the competition increases, which I think it will do for buyers in 2026. For sellers, you may not want to wait until spring [00:13:00] when perhaps there'll be more competition With more people listing their homes, we can use this late summer and early fall for smart private pre-market strategy.

Elise Kiely: So the point is for both buyers and sellers. Lean on your real estate advisor's expertise and experience. A lot of times sellers think we are still in a market of six months ago, let alone a year ago, and it's just not the case. You have to be very strategic in preparing a property for market and for pricing a property and for buyers lean on your real estate advisor for those areas that real estate advisors may anticipate there being strong growth or a plateauing of growth, and how to best navigate the offer phase and due diligence phase of a contract. So I hope you found this market update helpful. I always think it's really interesting to [00:14:00] look at these trends.

Elise Kiely: I am constantly looking at what is happening in other parts of the country, what's happening on a national level, and trying to anticipate what will be happening in Maine so I can best advise my clients. And look, we have a lot of good brokers in Maine that are doing very similar things. Just make sure you rely on their expertise.

Elise Kiely: Now for a little bit more fun than the market update. And numbers I want to share with you this very special listing at 10 Cromwell Cove in Harpswell. And if you are not familiar with Harpswell, it is a gem of a community. It is right adjacent to Brunswick, which is home to Bowdoin College. It's depending on where you're going in Harpswell.

Elise Kiely: It's a 30 to 45 minute drive to Portland, and it has some of the most stunning coastline you will ever see. And it is an incredibly affordable place to live in that you can get more house for your dollar on the [00:15:00] coast than you can almost anywhere else in the state. And the taxes are incredibly reasonable.

Elise Kiely: I really, I invite everybody to go to Harpswell look at the vistas. Look at, there's something special about the light in harp's well as well, and how it reflects off the water. There's some great places to eat, lobster pounds, of course, the Dolphin Restaurant and lots of wonderful hidden little communities with art galleries.

Elise Kiely: And this property at 10 Cromwell Cove is in the West Cones Harbor section of Harpswell. The property sits on three private acres with 315 feet of private sandy beach frontage, and that's pretty rare north of Portland and in Harpswell too. But it has a beautiful sandy beach. Sweeping ocean views and the views are not just of the raw ocean, which can sometimes seem stark, but you have this beautiful uninhabited little island called rogue island.

Elise Kiely: Well, I take that [00:16:00] back. It is inhabited. It's inhabited by wonderful bird life. Osprey and eagles all have nests out there. And what I love particularly about this property is the privacy and the setting, and it's just one of those places where you feel like you can take a breath when you go there. I love that it's the classic shingle New England architecture, and it's paired on the interior with sleek contemporary design and lines, and every room from this house offers a stunning view. There's a main house which has about over 5,000 square feet, and then there's a detached, one bedroom guest suite above the three car garage, and the guest suite has amazing views as well.

Elise Kiely: This is the classic house you want to have if you want to entertain groups or large family gatherings. When I first came to the property, I thought, wow, this would be a special spot for a [00:17:00] wedding or a signature family reunion. So I will include links to this beautiful property with some stunning photography by Peter Morneau, who does almost all of my photography.

Elise Kiely: It's really fun to look at, and I'll include links to that listing in the show notes. But this is the kind of property if you value privacy, beauty, and the ability to walk barefoot from your bedroom to the beach. This property is calling your name, and I'm happy to give you a private tour or a sneak peek.

Elise Kiely: Well wrapping up whether the market is up, down or just catching its breath, what I think it's doing here in Maine, there are always opportunities. The key is reading the tea leaves the phrase of the day. You have to read those leaves early. You have to ask the right questions, and you have to have the right advisor.

Elise Kiely: If you enjoyed this episode, which I really hope you did, 'cause I find this information so fascinating, please share with your friend, your neighbor, your coworker, [00:18:00] subscribe and reach out anytime. If you have questions or comments or if you have a guest you'd like to hear me interview my name again is Elise Kiely, and this is Elegant Maine Living.

Elise Kiely: And thank you for listening to today's episode. I welcome any comments and always the courtesy of your review is very appreciated. And please remember, this podcast is for entertainment and informational purposes only, and it is not real estate and investment or legal advice. But I am happy to help you on your real estate journey in any way I can.

Elise Kiely: And please, I invite you to come and experience Maine. And Maine is where elegance is not just an aesthetic. It's frankly a way of life. Hey, until next time, keep living with elegance.