Auto Tariffs Tsunami: How 25% Tariffs Will Change American Car Markets

Something massive is about to shift in the American automotive marketplace. Starting next Wednesday, 25% tariffs will hit vehicles and parts imported from Canada, Mexico, Europe, Japan, and essentially any foreign country—and these will stack on top of existing tariffs.

Our conversation with Aiden Bergsman from the Anderson Economic Group reveals just how complex this situation is becoming. Modern vehicles aren't simply built in one country—components cross borders repeatedly during manufacturing. That engine in your Chevy might have started in Canada, crossed to Detroit, had Mexican parts added, then crossed back to Canada before returning as a finished vehicle. Each crossing potentially triggers tariffs, and Bergsman's analysis suggests these could raise vehicle prices by $3,000-$10,000, with EVs potentially seeing even steeper increases.

Manufacturers face impossible choices: absorb unsustainable costs, pass them to already-stretched consumers, frantically relocate production to the U.S., or discontinue certain models entirely. Meanwhile, dealers are stockpiling imports before the deadline hits. The situation is particularly threatening for models exclusively built in Canada or Mexico that don't sell in high volumes—these might simply disappear from the market.

Beyond tariffs, we explore the alarming 16% increase in auto loan fraud (now $9.2 billion annually) and share news about Hyundai's massive $6 billion steel mill investment in Louisiana, part of their $21 billion U.S. manufacturing expansion. This strategic move has earned them an exemption from the upcoming tariffs, demonstrating one way forward in this challenging new landscape.

Whether you're planning to buy a vehicle soon or simply want to understand how these economic shifts will affect the automotive world, this episode provides crucial insights into what might be the biggest shake-up in car manufacturing and pricing in decades. Subscribe now and join us for our upcoming live broadcast from the Hemi Hideout in Brookshire next Saturday!

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Transcript

Show Introduction and Upcoming Topics

Speaker 1 0:00

The In Wheel Time Podcast, a 30-minute mini version of the In Wheel Time Car Show that airs live every Saturday morning 8 to 11 am, Central From the Sugar Shack Studios in Texas, usa. It's the In Wheel Time Car Talk Show. Just ahead, aidan Bergsman from the Anderson Economic Group talks to us about the auto tariffs that start next Wednesday. Jeff has the cruise in and events calendars and I'll bring you stories making automotive news headlines this week. Howdy, along with Mike out of this world, mars. We always need more.

Aiden Bergsman on Auto Tariffs Impact

Speaker 1 0:31

Jeff Zekin, I'm Don Armstrong, glad you could join us, and David Ainsley is preparing to join us next Saturday at the Hemi Hideout. We invite you to join us out there as well. Jeff, john Hovis is going to have an open house at the Hemi Hideout. One of usually has a couple of them every year. It's your opportunity to take a gander inside yourself, and we highly recommend it for anybody and everybody. Children under 12 are not welcome and the weather is going to be beautiful. It is? Yeah, it truly is All right. Let's go to the Anderson Economic Group. Yeah, it truly is All right. Let's go to the Anderson Economic Group. And the gentleman's name is Aiden. It's great to have you with us, Aiden Bergman Did you lose your place again, pardon me.

Speaker 2 1:15

Did you lose your place again.

Speaker 1 1:16

Well, yeah, I did. I'm sorry.

Speaker 3 1:18

Aiden how are you? Good afternoon guys. How are you?

Speaker 1 1:21

Well, very well. Where are we speaking to you from?

Speaker 3 1:24

I am in the office currently at East Lansing Michigan.

Speaker 1 1:28

Oh, very good, You're up in Michigan. Okay, well, good, the hot spot of the world these days. 25% tariffs on automobiles coming from. Well, for us, mainly Canada and Mexico, but they also include all the European and Japanese countries. I mean anything that comes in through a port. They're going to be charged a 25% tariff, and I said this earlier and that's on top of any tariff that currently is placed on that country, am I correct?

Speaker 3 1:59

Yep, that's correct. You know the proclamation just Wednesday this week, on the 26th, that was for the car imports and auto parts imports, you know, from any foreign country, and that's on top of, as well, the steel and aluminum that went into effect earlier this month, any other tariffs that may be in existence. All of these are, you know, really on top of each other. So there's quite a lot of areas for these autos to get hit.

Speaker 1 2:27

And I think that the president said yesterday, if I'm not mistaken, that he is asking the car companies to toe a line on increasing the price of automobiles, which to me means, look, these guys need to kind of suck it up. Is what he's saying? I think is what he's asking for. Are they going to do that, you think?

Speaker 3 2:48

That's a good question. I mean, I guess it's really ultimately up to the manufacturers and each model is going to be different in terms of how much it gets hit by these tariffs which would then inform them of what sorts of cost increases they'll see for those models. You know, as consumers we hope that there's not going to be too much of an impact. But I think, you know, since there's all these tariffs that are going to be stacked on top of each other, we should be seeing some increases across the board for these models. And you know, ultimately it's up to the manufacturers. We would hope that they could absorb more of it than they pass on to the consumers. But we'll see, probably sooner rather than later.

Border-Crossing Manufacturing Complexities

Speaker 1 3:27

Well Aiden from my experience and not all of the cars that come to us from Mexico or Canada, and we're going to talk about those specifically, because I think that those are the ones that impact or will impact most of America if the manufacturers stay with the prices in a 25% increase. Hopefully that will not be the case, but it's going to take us a while to kind of weave our way through this process because there are certain things that it's complicated. It's not just 25% across the board because, granted, if an engine is made in Windsor, ontario, for instance, and is shipped to the other side of the river over to Detroit and placed in a Chevy pickup truck, there's 25%, but there are other parts to the truck that could be made in Mexico that goes through the United States and gets another part added to it. Then it gets shipped to Canada and it comes back. So there are all these ifs, ands and buts that are happening within all of this tariff stuff that it's quite complicated actually.

Speaker 3 4:38

Yeah, that's a really good point. It is quite complicated. You know. We've definitely buffed up our tariff and imports knowledge over the past couple of months because of this. And you're right, these components cross borders several times, you know, during the manufacturing process, even to the complexity point that you mentioned, even the. You know the government isn't fully prepared for these tariffs yet. The government isn't fully prepared for these tariffs yet in the fact that with the newest proclamation a couple of days ago on the car parts currently those I don't believe are being tariffed until the Secretary of Commerce can even figure out the way to differentiate between the US and the non-US content. So there will be some wiggle room for manufacturers and importers when they're importing cars and components to declare US content that would not be impacted by the tariff. Go ahead, I'm sorry they're still working on setting that system up.

Speaker 1 5:37

I read a story this morning from Automotive News that the issue is so compounded that what they have done knowing that this is going to take place a month ago now well, almost a month ago that they're cranking out cars as fast as they can in Canada and Mexico and importing everything that they can from the Europeans and Japanese as well. That dealer lots are overflowing with cars and the dealers are getting as many cars as they can right now, especially those that are made outside the United States. And I would imagine you know there's that ripple effect Order it a month ago and over-order for your lot what you think that you can sell, and I would imagine that they're going to have every space and more filled at car dealers. And the word out today was if you're going to go buy a new car, be prepared to wait for a salesman to sell you the car. Have you heard this too?

Speaker 3 6:44

Yeah, I mean it's certainly. Have you heard this too? Yeah, I mean it's certainly, like you said, a ripple effect and the timing of it's very interesting. You know, these tariffs were originally discussed way back in November, as you know, really just an idea, and over the course of the last few months now we've been seeing them, you know, take shape and really become realized and see them change in a way as well. You know, now with the new tariffs we're seeing that that's targeting really any import, not just from Canada and Mexico.

Speaker 3 7:15

So that really is impacting all manufacturers, all makes and models, and I think you're right. I think, to get ahead of this, some dealerships they're trying to get whatever they can get their hands on, and not only just from their side, but consumers as well. We've been telling people that if you've got your eye on a car and there's something that you're looking to purchase, to try to make that purchase sooner rather than later, because the price could go up up or if manufacturers during this process realize that certain models really just aren't as feasible to produce anymore with the cost of the imports, they might switch away from certain car models and for some consumers that have been looking to buy a certain model that can really affect their choices in the future, because there are some manufacturers that are actually only building this particular model in Canada or in Mexico, and I'm just going to use those as an example.

Speaker 1 8:08

Sure, it's all over the world, but they're only making them there. My thought was okay, so Project X car is made in Ontario, canada, or Windsor, canada, and that car it sells, but it doesn't sell in huge numbers. So the only way for me to make any money as a manufacturer is to tack on that entire 25% and sell it. If it's a $40,000 car now you're looking at a $50,000 car is the way it works. If I'm not making that much money and I'm not making that many cars, am I going to shut down the factory? Then you get the whole. Other ripple of it is the unions, because Canada has a union similar to ours, and can they do that without some sort of big brouhaha with the unions? So there are so many multiples involved in this. How do you see things going? What do you foresee? I know you got another idea.

Consumer Impact and Price Increases

Speaker 3 9:12

Honestly, I think it's going to be from a lot of different angles. I don't think there's really, you know, there's not a one-size-fits-all solution for these manufacturers. Like you said, certain models, if they rely more on imports or manufacturing from foreign countries, the solutions either, like you said, they can keep producing as is and just have to incur that 25%. They could shift their production of that model to the US or try to produce certain components domestically rather than importing them. Try to produce certain components domestically rather than importing them. They could just completely do away with the model which would have ripple effects, like you said, with closing down facilities and laying off employment. I think probably the best solution for these manufacturers is to do a little bit of all of it really analyze which models are the ones that they are for sure going to keep and they can justify how do they shift that production and then, if they're getting rid of some, where they make the cuts in terms of the production and the employment.

Speaker 2 10:13

Yeah, and the final goal is to get the manufacturing here in the US. So I think that, with those steps that you said you're going to take or they would take, inevitably they're going to probably move over to here to make it a little less tough on the tariffs themselves, and the people that are going to really be making money on this are the tariff attorneys, because there's going to be lawsuits left and right. You know that. Yeah, absolutely.

Speaker 1 10:45

That's who's going to shift focus to electric, and electric has stopped selling in volumes big enough that they can actually make some money off of them, and so now they've put all of their savings, if you will, into EVs and EV factories and battery technology and battery building all of that. So where is the money going to come from to, let's say, move the Chevrolet plant that makes the Silverado in Canada, because they're going to have to either add capacity to where they're building them because usually, at least here in Texas, they sell every single one that they make or they're going to have to just be on hold with your order for your Chevy pickup truck because they can't make them fast enough. I mean, the issues are compounded and it just is not one thing, it's a lot of things. The other thing I wanted to mention to you and this is my thought you know the CEOs of these manufacturing companies GM, ford, stellantis, whoever it is.

Speaker 1 11:57

They're making hundreds of millions of dollars in their bonuses and all of this sort of stuff, and you hear about Mary Barra getting another bonus of a million dollars. You never hear. Well, they're going to take a cut and pay just to help along. It's more of a symbolic thing. Why wouldn't they do that to get the kudos from the American people saying, hey, mary Baratucka, cut and pay and I'm going to go buy me a GM.

Speaker 3 12:25

Yeah, I mean you know I have no way of knowing if that would actually happen or not, but I mean as a consumer and you know somebody on the side of this that's going to see these impacts I think something to that effect would really go a long way to help reassure these consumers that they're not just kind of left by the wayside to really deal with the final decisions and seeing these car prices go up.

Speaker 3 12:49

That's a really tough pill to swallow for some people and it's going to definitely push people. If they're in the new car market, you know, maybe they go used or maybe, unfortunately, they're just they can't afford the vehicle they want to anymore. I think what's going to help the consumer get through this process and even manufacturers is it's going to. You know there's going to be a give and take from both sides and you know if that's not only just the restructuring, bringing manufacturing over here, but also, like you said, if there's pay cuts involved or maybe, yeah, the CEOs can kind of help in any way that they can as well. I think that would help consumers know that they're not alone and that you know, while this is going on, that they get support from some other aspects of it.

Speaker 1 13:32

Aiden, how many meetings do you think are happening this weekend? Right now, today, as we speak, talking about tariffs, and what in the world are we going to do? Well, aiden's in the office, you're in the office, so there you go. I mean, I would imagine that there's probably going to be around-the-clock headbanging going on in all these major corporations going. Okay, what are we going to do and how are we going to do it? I was telling somebody earlier today. I said I think that what's going to happen is that it's going to be a combination of things that these manufacturers are going to have to, either individually or collectively, and I think collectively, ultimately, is going to be the answer. You know, this one's cutting back here, this one's moving the operation here. This one's going to shut down that operation over here. It's going to be a combination of all these things to try to keep a cap on the price of the vehicle, because the price of a new vehicle is over $40,000 on average now. It's a lot of money.

Speaker 3 14:29

Yeah, definitely, I think you're spot on there. I think there's lots of, you know, like you said, there's lots of, like you said, there's compounding issues and because of that, there's going to have to be lots of different solutions that they have to weave and have them work together so that they can attack this from all different angles.

Speaker 2 14:46

I'm interested in all these commercials that you see now on TV. Hey, take $18,000 off the top of the sticker price and get in the incentive at whatever 2.9% for whatever time. I wonder how the commercials are going to be. Get involved now and get the 25% tariff removed, or whatever the case. Hey, congratulations on Michigan State beating Ole Miss yesterday.

Speaker 3 15:08

Yeah, that was a fun one. I checked in on it every now and then. It was a tight one, but Michigan State got the good comeback.

Speaker 1 15:15

So do you have information? Whatever Anderson Economic Group is thinking about the 25% tariffs?

Speaker 3 15:22

We're currently in the process of updating our analysis. We put one out in February which, at the time, was based on the February 1st executive order, which was just the 25% country tariffs to Canada and Mexico, which, as we know, has been delayed a couple of times, and we're now seeing this new tariff of imports of cars and car parts. With that analysis, we'd found that we took some data from a good selection of vehicles from different manufacturers, makes and models, ultimately finding that car prices could see increases of anywhere from $3,000 to $10,000, even more so for some EV models which you brought up earlier. We're working currently on updating that analysis. We're hoping to have a release early next week to take into account not only the new steel and aluminum tariffs that went into effect earlier this month, but the new tariffs that will be entering into the equation starting Wednesday.

Speaker 1 16:25

Aiden, we can't thank you enough for joining us today. We really appreciate you and we're going to be back. We're going to knock on your door again here in the not-too-distant future.

Speaker 3 16:33

Yeah, looking forward to it. Be on the lookout for our release. It'll come out sometime this week.

Cruise-in Calendar and Events

Speaker 1 16:36

Thank you so much, aiden Bergman Anderson Economic Group. Thanks again Coming up. Jeff has the cruise-in and events calendars and I'll have the stories-making automotive news headlines this week. Thanks for joining us on the award-winning In Real Time Car Talk Show. We continue in two minutes.

Speaker 1 16:51

You've waited all winter and it's finally here the Tailpipes and Tacos Spring Cruise Inn. It's been a while, but the popular Tailpipes and Tacos Cruise Inn Returns to the Loopy Tortilla Tex-Mex in Katy. Saturday, april 19th. Make any donation to Shirley's Kids and get a free breakfast taco. There'll be mimosas and Bloody Marys too. Get to the best cruise inn of the year Tailpipes and Tacos. Saturday, april 19th, 8 to 11 am. Cruise in, make a donation of any amount and grab a free Loopy Tortilla Breakfast Taco. Tailpipes and Tacos only happens at the Loopy Tortilla Tex-Mex in Katy, 703 West Grand Parkway at Kingsland Boulevard, just south of the Katy Freeway. Join the car camaraderie and your car will automatically compete for one of three chili pepper trophies at no charge. Spring is here and what better way to celebrate than with a free taco at tailpipes and tacos. Saturday, april 19th, 8 to 11 am. The in-wheel time car talk show will be there too. We hope to see you then come on out.

Speaker 1 17:49

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Speaker 1 18:16

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Speaker 2 19:08

Now for the cruise-in and events calendars yes, you got Humble Good Old Days Classic Car Show. It returns April 5th in humble. Uh, it's part of the good old days festival and highlights the town's rich history. That's some good old boys there. Yeah, good old boys, good old girls, all good old gals, all that stuff. And for the history and community spirit, uh, pre-1988 vehicles, they've got a kid zone, they got raffles, prizes, all that good stuff. Probably food trucks you can get on goodolddayscom car show for more information. That's in Humble at 110 South Avenue.

Speaker 2 19:41

G Goes from 10 am to whenever. And then you got the weekly cruise in to Montgomery, texas, every Saturday night 6 to 9, actually tonight and next weekend behind McDonald's and O'Reilly's in the Brookshire parking lot, brookshire Brothers parking lot. And then you've got Kerrville coming up, the Kerrville Masonic Lodge, third annual charity car show in Kerrville, part of the Salvation Army. They've got a fire pup program. They've got the Texas Masonic Charities. All that good stuff. 100% of the proceeds go to supporting the community. So get out there. Your dollar's going to go far. It's at the Kerr County Courthouse, 700 Main Street. Now, mike, you can't go because I think you've got warrants out. You've got warrants, you can't go. Kerrville from 8 am to 4 pm, and then, of course, we've got our cruise-ins. He's got an ankle monitor. Is that what it is? Yes, it does. It lights up Kind of glittery.

Speaker 2 20:34

It works good during the holidays. It looks pretty, never mind you got the Hemi Hideout next weekend. Tailpipes and tacos on the 19th.

Speaker 1 20:43

Hemi Hideout is a cruise in. It's an open house. Bring your hot rod, don't have to bring anything, just bring your regular driver car. You need to see the Hemi Hideout that's out in Brookshire, texas. Go to HemiHideoutcom, let them know you're coming so they can do a head count. By the way, the Loopy Tortilla taco truck is going to be out there, so if you want to have lunch again. You can do that.

Speaker 2 21:08

That's good, I like taco, we were just talking about that and you see the advertisements that we have on there and the parking. You go, park your car and they'll wheel you up in a golf cart up to the event, up to the building, and that's all cool stuff too. So there you go, cruise in, and events Very cool.

Auto Loan Fraud and Industry News

Speaker 1 21:22

Yep, let's see here. Scammers who share tricks with one another on social media are pushing auto loan fraud to record levels. What pushing auto loan fraud to record levels? What? The dollar amount of car loans involving fraud grew last year by more than 16% to $9.2 billion, according to a report from risk management firm Point Predictive. In dollar terms, that's about 1.3% of all auto lending. The increase is much faster than the growth in total lending identified by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The rising numbers of swindlers is likely contributing to the record share of borrowers falling behind on their auto loan payments, as fraudulent loans are more likely to end up in default.

Speaker 1 22:12

One of the fastest growing types of fraud was so-called credit washing, where credit repair companies file false identity theft claims with credit bureaus or the Federal Trade Commission to help borrowers clear black marks from their credit histories. Indicators of credit washing showed up in 1.7% of loan applications last year, a 162% increase over 2023. Largest share of fraud involves the misrepresentation of income or employment, which can come from both borrowers and dealers. These kinds of inaccuracies accounted for 42% of all fraud last year. By dollar amount, point Predictive said. To detect signs of likely income misrepresentation, the company uses methods including tracking the income levels of borrowers put on different applications and flagging significant variations. So beware.

Speaker 2 23:12

Big brother's watching you.

Speaker 1 23:14

That's it. Fbi has formed a task force with the Bureau of Alcohol, tobacco and Firearms and Explosives to coordinate investigations into a growing number of vandalism and arson incidents of Teslas, the showrooms and the charging stations. The incidents come amid escalating backlash against CEO Elon Musk and his role in President Trump's administration. I think it's a terrible thing. It is Musk and his role in President Trump's administration. I think it's a terrible thing. It is. Hyundai Motor Group said it will spend $6 billion to establish a steel mill in Louisiana, operated by Hyundai Steel, capable of producing 2.7 million tons of steel each year. The steel plant will supply cars and parts to plants in the US. It's part of a $21 billion investment in the company. It will spend over the next four years to expand annual production capacity to 1.2 million vehicles. That's the whole point.

Speaker 2 24:18

How do you borrow $21 billion. They have it in their pockets.

Speaker 1 24:21

They know a. That's the whole point. How do you borrow $21 billion? They have it in their pockets. They know a guy, they know a guy. It also plans to invest in energy infrastructure creation and partner with US companies such as NVIDIA and Waymo on technology development. Trump confirmed that Hyundai Motor, parent to Hyundai, genesis and Kia, would not be required to pay tariffs as a result of the expansion.

Speaker 2 24:42

Did it say where? In Louisiana?

Speaker 1 24:44

They didn't say it's south of Baton Rouge.

Speaker 2 24:46

Baton Rouge is it? I believe so yeah.

Speaker 1 24:51

Probably Don't know. It doesn't say exactly. I'm sure that it'd be easy to find out.

Speaker 2 24:56

One of our astute fact checkers online will tell us yeah, I'm sure.

Speaker 1 25:01

It doesn't say in the story.

Speaker 2 25:02

I don't know where I think I heard south or southeast of Baton Rouge, baton Rouge Red Stick, yes, which is the state capitol, by the way. Thank you for that, that history lesson. I know all the state capitals. Ask me a state, I'll tell you the capitol Washington State it's a w.

Speaker 1 25:25

Have you ever thought about doing stand-up? No, I think what you should do is you should really apply for a, a opening act for leanne morgan or tom papa.

Speaker 2 25:35

We saw tom papa a couple weeks ago. It was awesome it was actually last week it wasn't last week and it was very good Time flies. It was fun.

Speaker 1 25:41

Yeah, if you have not heard of Tom Papa, we highly recommend he's got a special on Netflix.

Speaker 2 25:46

He's several. Yeah, he's a clean comic yeah. Well, every once in a while there'll be a word here the air A little bit of time when we're on the air, Exactly.

Speaker 1 26:01

Alright. Well, we're going to have to take us a little break here, I think. Gentlemen, Are you okay with that?

Speaker 2 26:08

You know, the show has actually gone kind of fast, too fast. We might need to do another two hours or something Not today, okay, but maybe next week.

Speaker 1 26:15

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Speaker 1 26:41

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Speaker 4 27:20

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Show Closing and Next Week Preview

Speaker 1 27:53

Well, that's all for this week's In Real Time Car Talk Show. Be sure and check us out online at InRealTimecom. We're always looking for new, informative and fun automotive things. If you have an idea or an event, let us know. Our email address is info at inwheeltimecom. Hey, when you're looking for award-winning car talk, you can find the In Wheel Time Car Talk Show 24-7 on the In Wheel Time app. You on the road. Grab a podcast anytime from your favorite podcast provider, including the new SiriusXM podcast channel. And be sure and catch us on the Odyssey radio app.

Speaker 1 28:29

We video stream our live show every Saturday 10 to noon on Facebook, youtube and InRealTimecom. The In Real Time video technical director is we Need More Jeff Zekin For booking agent, video editor and finder Mike Out of this World, mars and chief engineer David Ainsley. I'm Don Armstrong. Next week we'll be at the Spring Open House at the Hammy Hideout in Brookshire. $10 cash gets you in to see us in person and we look for you out there. The Hot Rod Tour of Texas starts April 24th in Victoria and we hope you'll join us or at least tune in Details and links at inrealtimecom. Be safe out there. Have a great week and thanks again for tuning in to In Real Time. That's it for this podcast episode of the In Wheel Time Car Show. I'm Don Armstrong, inviting you to join us for our live show every Saturday morning on Facebook, youtube, twitch and our InWheelTimecom website. Podcasts are available on Apple Podcasts, spotify Stitcher, iheart Podcast Podcast Addict TuneIn, pandora and Amazon Music. Keep listening and we'll see you soon.