Canada's CUSMA Trade Deal Is STALLING Before Deadline? - Episode #136!

Welcome to Tav's Headline News Reviews! 

The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) trade deal is facing significant challenges as the deadline for implementation approaches. With negotiations stalling, the future of trade between these three nations hangs in the balance. In this video, we explore the current state of CUSMA, the key obstacles to its progress, and the potential consequences of a stalled agreement. From tariffs and trade restrictions to economic implications and geopolitical tensions, we examine the complex issues at play and what they might mean for Canada, the US, and Mexico.

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Transcript

SPEAKER_01 0:09

Thanks for joining us on Monday, April the thirteenth, twenty twenty-six.

SPEAKER_03 0:13

What happens on July first? We aren't probably going to be be able to resolve all issues by July first, but I think we are on track to resolve many of them closely with the Mexicans over the past year. They resolved a lot of issues. Um the Canadians, uh we have some issues with them that haven't been resolved.

SPEAKER_00 0:30

We continue to work very uh constructively with our American council.

SPEAKER_02 0:34

If you listened very carefully to that interview, the lead negotiator for the United States, Greer, he slipped while he was explaining what happens after July 1st. What he almost slipped in saying was if we don't renew, if you listen to it very carefully before he says the word review, catches himself and then changes the word. So listen to it again. Anyhow, July 1st, 2026 is a critical deadline for a mandatory review of the Canada US-Mexico agreement called Cuzmo. The US trade representative admits the talks likely won't be finished in time, as he heard in the interview, and signing delays are almost certain. So if they don't renew on July 1st, what happens is it just rolls over on a month-to-month basis, and but the agreement does not get extended. And the U.S. must decide by June 1st whether they intend to renew, renegotiate, or potentially exit the deal. So that's June 1st. So the deadline is July 1st, but they need to notify the other parties by June 1st of this year. So Roman video that we just watched a little while ago, you can hear that the lead negotiator, Greer and Minister Love of the B trade talks between the United States and Canada definitely stalled. Greer indicates that although they talked to Canada, there is some outstanding issues or irritates that the United States has that still have not been resolved, and hence that's why they will make the July 1st date. But what happens on June 1st is more critical than what happens on July 1st. Canada is definitely behind in the negotiations compared to the Mexicans. Mexico has already been in talks with the United States, and as Mr. Greer says, they're advanced, but he didn't indicate there was any kind of obstructions or problems with the negotiations. The major issues that the United States has with the with Canada is the number one is the buy Canada policy and provincial alcohol restrictions, so restricting American um alcohol from coming into Canada, and also this this of buy Canadian first, elbows up uh fiasco, or you don't hear much of it anymore, but as far as elbows up, but because it's elbows down, but it seems like that's a big big problem for the United States, and rightly so it should be they're the ones attacking us. Um dairy supply management and market access. Let's handle talk about both those things. Number one, dairy supply, supply management is what they call it. Um they have been talking, Trump's been talking about that since his first term. He doesn't like it, he wants it gone, and he wants the market to be completely opened up. Sort of what Paul uh Pierre Polyev was saying with his auto plan is he wants the president wants full market access into Canada. The same deal that he did with with the Europeans, um, the European common market. He wants full access, open access, and that's what he's seeking from Canada as well. So the buy-Canadian policy, alcohol coming into Canada for the US, supply management, market access, and steel, aluminum, and auto trade imbalances, or the auto pack. He's definitely uh both sectoral sectors, including the auto uh trade, that is a big problem for the United States. U.S. officials say Canadian Canada hasn't addressed the key concerns that they have been expressing since the beginning. And we've made no uh the United States hasn't made any headways or any advancements on things that that they have brought forth to Canada and issues. And until those items are addressed, there'll be nothing settled with Canada. Earlier in 2026, negotiations faced headwinds and even pause and talks between Canada and the United States. Uh and nothing was going on. I still think they're stalled and nothing's going on. Blah blah blah. We're gonna hear in a few minutes a press conference that he that he gave, and he just talks goobly blah. We don't know what he's saying, he's not saying anything, we're not getting any f any information from the Canadian government and how talks are going. Um we only hear uh the American side and how poorly things are going and uh and and how good things are going with other countries, but not with Canada. And nothing's changed since the day President Trump launched this tariff war against Canada. Nothing has changed on the American side. Here's an article from Reuters, and that individual there is a familiar face that we see here in in Canada, um, the US ambassador to Canada. He says that in this article says US facing headwinds in trade negotiations with Canada. So we're hearing a common theme. The common thing theme is that Canada, I mean Canadian negotiators, their problem, and we're not getting anything done. The U.S. position, major pressure points. The US under President Trump, first term, second term, is unhappy with the current outcomes and situation with Guzma, especially raising uh the issues regarding imports from Canada. Uh officials say things have to be changed as their U.S. officials continue to say the same thing over and over again and keep saying that the Canadian negotiators are not listening. And that is a problem. They say it on the business channels down in the States, they say it in the media in the States. For some reason, we don't play it up in here in Canada. We ignore it, but that's what's going on. And now they're talking about scrapping Kuzma entirely, replacing it with separal, separate bilateral deals. I've been saying that from day one, from every single episode that I've covered regarding free trade negotiations or Kuzma or the tariff war. I've been saying over and over again that the president of the United States is not a believer in trilateral agreements, so agreements between more than two people. He is a bilateral guy. He wants to do a deal with Mexico, and then he's gonna do another deal with uh Canada. And you hear LeBlanc, you're gonna hear him in the interview. He talks about um there's going to be bilateral agreements, but there's also gonna be a trilateral agreement regarding certain issues. I don't think so. I think there's gonna be bilateral agreements up and down for each country, as Trump has shown that he is for bilateral agreements and he's done multiple bilateral agreements already with other countries. So why change now? So this caught my it's an article from Reuters, and Canada announces a new chief trade and negotiator to the United States. I thought the ambassador Weiss, I think was his name, which we haven't seen him, we haven't heard from him since he's been appointed, was leading this with Minister LeBlanc. But now I'm hearing from this article, which caught me by surprise, February 16th, and I totally missed it. So, right here where I highlighted it, the Prime Minister appointed a new chief negotiator with the United States, Janice, and it caught me by surprise. And our situation hasn't really changed. Canada has not yet entered into full formal negotiations with the United States, and we're lagging behind Mexico, because as you could hear from the uh lead negotiator for the United States, they've already been negotiating with Mexico. Why we haven't been, I have no idea. Maybe because we're not changing, we're not inflexible. I don't know what it is, but it doesn't sound good that we're getting anywhere with the United States. Ottawa recently appointed the new chief uh negotiator, but we haven't heard anything from her. Handle the talks, and and the fact that the prime minister is appointing someone specific specifically to lead this tells me I'm not sure what LeBlanc does, Minister LeBlanc. I thought he was the equal to Greer. So unless unless she brings something to the table that the others don't have. And but for the Prime Minister to um appoint somebody over and above Mr. Minister LeBlanc and Mr. Wiseman, the U.S. ambassador, uh, tells me how serious the situation is. Maybe uh the Prime Minister's tried to see if she shakes things up and uh and gets some fresh faces in there to try to uh think if see if we can get make some heavy in these negotiations. Because Canada relies heavily on the U.S. market. We all know that. About 70 percent of our exports go to the United States, and a lot of the auto industry right now is being shielded by the Kuzma Agreement. And if that goes sideways, so goes the auto um the auto industry here in Canada.

SPEAKER_00 8:25

Conversations with U.S. counterparts uh remain productive and we remain engaged. We have also said all along that there will be a bilateral element uh to these discussions, and there will be also a trilateral element. The treaty involves a trilateral review. Um that process uh will occur. Um, but the American administration and our government and the Mexicans have also been clear that there are bilateral issues that properly will be uh worked on together by uh two countries, uh and it will necessarily form part of the discussion around uh the trilateral review of official.

SPEAKER_02 9:10

So this is what I'm talking about. You know, we we listened to Mr. Minister LeBlanc uh give us sort of an update on what's going on with the with the talks, and it's a lot of like I say, a lot of jubilee bot. We have no idea. Still, from the moment he pot started talking to the end, we still don't know where we stand. He just gives us a whole variety of options and doesn't really tell us anything. But the longer this goes on, as you can see from this article from Reuters, you know, and it's summarized here at the bottom, Windsor of businesses face uncertainty ahead of the this is the USMCA, which is the Kuzma agreement. Trump's tariffs threaten to disrupt Windsor's manufacturing sector, skilled trade courses have suffered, residential sales prices have fallen. Um, you know, businesses, especially in manufacturing hubs like Windsor, you know, there's delayed investment. It's not just Windsor, it's everywhere where we have uh manufacturing in Canada. Companies are not putting money on the table to invest until this whole situation uh rectifies itself. We get uncertainty into the market. They're also not hiring full-time employees, a lot of part-times, or they're holding back in um in hiring anybody at all. They're facing declining uh demand due to the uncertainty. The entire, you know, all the sectors, you know, auto housing, retail are all feeling the ripple effects of all this delay and all this nonsense that's going on. This is the most I've been saying this for several months now. The the renegotiations of the excuse my agreement is the most important thing that Canada is facing. This will have uh major ramifications across our economy, how our cost of living here in Canada. We better get this right. Prime Minister Carney has been benefiting from all of this, and he's getting this is the reason why we elected him. We didn't elect him for anything else, sort out this mess with the United States. We don't want to hear that we have the best deal with the United States, that we right now have the best deal with the United States. We did not elect Prime Minister Carney. He he has very favorable polls right now versus the leader of the opposition, Pierre Poly, only because of this whole situation and mess that we have with the United States. And the longer goes it goes on, the more Prime Minister Kearney benefits from it, and especially when when President Trump attacks us, because Canadians do not feel comfortable with anyone else other than Prime Minister Mark Carney at the helm in the on the control in the control room, managing this economic situation and all this uncertainty. And he's got to get this right. And if it goes sideways, so will his poll numbers, because that's what Canadians elected up for. And as long as this threat continues or this mess continues, so will his favorability numbers will continue to increase every time uh something happens or ruptures in this uh relationship with the United States. Um so right now, the whole the whole situation stalled. We're not getting any information from the government. We don't know where we stand, more uncertainty, and that just adds to the uncertainty. The ministers under Prime Minister Kearney are just repeating talking points that they've been given. They're not giving us any information, uh, and we don't know where we stand as Canadians. And cost of living continues to go up, and we're not we're not we're not any better. We're not any better than we were when Prime Minister Kearney took office. Zero. In fact, I think we've gone backwards. We're paying more for everything, and there's still there's even more uncertainty. There's still uncertainty in every sector, everywhere in the country. Nobody knows what's gonna happen, and that should be his number one focus. And uh, we're not getting it. So let me know your thoughts and comments on this issue. Uh, thanks for watching. Be safe, and we'll see you on the next one.